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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  April 24, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT

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ut $6 trillion from u.s. equities the nasdaq reclaims a record courier was a little bit higher. less theaters a little bit higher. >> investors are pulling money at the fastest pace since 2012. we made the peak on april 10. the dax is overvalued by about 15%.
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let's go to the nasdaq. that's the heart of this a boolean in markets. -- ebulliance in markets. the nasdaq breaking the new record. it took 15 years to get there. it's training around 28 times its earnings. the multiple in 2000 was 190. it's a different beast. the components are going to raise dividends. some other news, banks are in focus.
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all in an effort to raise capital. you're going to get new asset managers. unicredit will get a quarter of a percent. she will focus more deeply on what she is doing and raise those assets away. oil pretax profit to zero 5 million. that beat the estimate. electrolux beat estimates. north america i was surprised. in europe the margins are improving. the cost saving program is working. astrazeneca also had their set
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of numbers today. that came in at 1.0 eight cents per share. they are sticking to their forecast. those are the kinds of stocks we are keeping an ion. -- eye on. the question is where does the dollar go next. we will leave it there. that's it for me. >> go home. enjoy your weekend. the ftse 100 up a third of 1%. the big focus, it eurozone finance chief and central bankers are meeting this morning, where greece is topping the agenda with cash running out and no sign of a deal. will creditors start turning the screws? greek prime minister tsipras has urged merkel for a deal before the end of april.
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do you get the same sense of urgency from the ground? the bar is pretty low once again. >> the bar is low, but you are hearing all the finance ministers have gone into this meeting. it is pessimism followed by frustration. there isn't a lot of optimism that you are going to get a deal today. pretty much every minister has downplayed expectations. the position part is important. listen to how he puts it when he seems to think the pressure is really on greece. >> the deadline is more important for the greek side than the eurogroup. it's a matter of urgency to get financial support to make sure there is enough money available to keep the government running. >> that is a eurogroup leader that did not necessarily feel he is being forced to negotiate
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forced to give in to greek demand. at the same time, frustration seems to be bubbling open that more has been made. this is the nitty-gritty happening with reforms. they were supposed to have a final list submitted in april that appears to be blown. at best they are going to get an update from mr. varoufakis, who was conspicuously quiet and had no comment when he walked past the cameras earlier. jonathan: this has been dominated by a problem that was very much greases problem. if we had a problem it is that you can have a default without an and said. is that gaining more traction? -- without an exit. >> bloomberg did pulling of
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economists. economists think there is a 40% probability you could have i missed payment, but it is a 30% probability on whether or not that translates into a default. the difference comes from a question of liquidity. no one knows how long greece can go. will they be able to make those payments to the imf? another thing is when you look at will greece impose capital controls, a broad range. the median answer, 50% probability that capital controls will come to greece. >> no one really knows, do they? we are joined by the head of global asset allocation at barclays. great to have you with us. i see no one knows because a couple weeks ago we were told it really matters.
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then, it is it doesn't really matter. what is your take on the meeting? what's we don't that we are going to get much out of this. policy makers have already said this. you still have some time. we have pushed it back to the may 11 meeting. who knows? jonathan: these are political deadlines. the real deadline is when they run out of any. what we do have is a series of dates. may 11 is important. they have got to pay money back to the imf. are they the dates you are looking for right now? >> we're in a calendar where we are beginning to run out of time. the truth is you can get on the phone and solve this problem. you don't need to have these summits to do it. it is the payment dates that matter most. >> a fourth month of discussion. what is the problem? the chief said
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>> my impression is you had a pretty that needs to change. a program has been in place. the government from greece is saying something different. jonathan: it is just about the consensus. you speak to your clients on a daily basis. they call you up and are worried. then they say there is nothing to worry about. if people are more comfortable with the situation, why is the market still trading over the situation? >> my concern is the investors i speak to will say it doesn't matter. from what i see, the market is already there.
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the risk is it already matters a little or a lot. i think that's why you see the gyration. people want to think this european recovery is what the trade is. jonathan: the investors you speak to come are they getting braver? >> i haven't sense that. where they are brave is they are willing to stay in spanish and italian debt at tight spreads in germany despite the fact they believe there may be a default in greece. jonathan: would you use the word brave? >> i would say yes. there is a difference between a bad stock and zero risk. if you look at peripheral debt it is basically pricing and zero risk. that's probably not the case if you have a proper default in greece. jonathan: we are going to talk
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about u.s. equities. the nasdaq reaches new record highs, taking more than a decade to mend post bubble wounds. we will tell you what they are missing. traders behaving badly. high intrigue on the trading floor. stay with us. ♪
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jonathan: welcome back.
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in the tech world they erase trillions of dollars from u.s. markets. yesterday it closed at an all-time high. things have changed just a little bit. three of the five biggest companies reported earnings. >> we had amazon and google. all of them traded higher on the backs of impressive earnings. with google it was a bit of a mess. people are saying, let's drive this forward. $14 billion if you strip out what they passed to their partners.
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this stuff was three and a half percent up. it's all about mobile and more videos. we are seeing the amount is diminishing slightly. that is because of youtube, but mobile has great omentum. this is where they are trying to integrate. this is a company always trying to better is self. it came slightly shy of estimates, but the new projects the improving search all of that could drive it forward. not a single cell recommendation. let's look at the others. microsoft, this is number two when it comes into how many they managed to get into sales.
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$22 billion for the last quarter. they rose 6%. for this company it's all about cloud computing. it's all about reorienting. they want to be able to use microsoft. whether you are on apple, google, android, you want to be using their products. we are spending more on servers. that is driving growth. the only downside is the pc market. people don't want microsoft in stores on their pcb -- their pcs. it is all about doubling growth on cloud computing for seven straight quarters. let's get to amazon. let's get to the company that got the most in sales. it was a huge $22.7 billion.
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we saw amazon at 8% after hours. they are shifting to cloud as well. what they managed to do is when netflix is growing, so is amazon, because it provides data centers. they are just starting to ramp up. an interesting bet was made by the chief executive. a net loss. he is spending the same amount. the reason is he is still investing. he wants more media contact to make us addicts. tens of millions use amazon prime. he wants it to be hundreds of millions. >> jim mccormick is still with
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us. let's get back to the nasdaq all-time highs. we have a discussion about what the index looked like, and we say it is much more stable. this is the contribution of some of the biggest companies on the nasdaq over the last 12 months. what you see is a corridor. 23 percent. incredible. what's your view on that? >> it underscores how much the nasdaq story has changed. in the late 90's and 2000 it was all about small companies that become big companies and the ones that have won have become the underlying part of the market. some of these companies it's hard to think of them as tech companies.
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tech is at the center of product, but they are consumer discretionary stocks. it's all about the strength of the consumer as well. >> i look back at 2000. it is 25 -- 24 times earnings. in 2000 you struggle to find the companies to do the calculation. is that a big challenge for you? >> the nasdaq is a classic story that people had the right idea. internet amtech was going to change things. now we are in the mature stage where these are companies that do have earnings. 24 times. is that too high? i don't know. it looks ok. jim: i think tech is a good story in an environment. a lot of these are about consumer discretionary. take tends to be much less impacted by a strong dollar.
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the margins are so high that a dollar going up doesn't mean much to these companies. >> in terms of the word record highs, we can get excited about it. we had 27 of them on the dax so far this year. does it really mean anything, the term record high? does it have value to people? they say, i need to step back and take money off the table? >> i think it has value. to be able to say the dax is at a record high, i think it's getting people more and more involved in the market. if you look at flows into equity over the last five or six years, it has been quite light. this hasn't been a market that had full participation. >> it has been called the most unloved bull market in history. when you look at what is happening in europe and the united states over the last five years, this great old market
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and what is starting to happen in japan, if i had to make you pick, which would you be picking? >> we have europe and japan are very different stories. europe is about a good cycle starting to take hold. it is about a long-term secular change that makes it more interesting. >> we will talk about japan after the break. the central bankers throw everything they have got at jumpstarting economies across the globe. there is one thing they might be missing. details are next. ♪
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>> let's get up to speed. comcast is said to be walking away from it takeover. the deal was about 14 months ago and will be worth $45 billion. many credit -- unicredit agreed to merge assets. the lenders will each control one third of the new business, while u.s. buyout firms will own the rest. profits of astrazeneca fell after they took a slice of revenue.
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sales of the best-selling products are also down as patents expire. central bankers around the world are providing limited liquidity and support. maybe they don't have a policy lever to address. jim is still with us. he has been crunching the numbers. demographics and what it means for savings. what are we going to see in the next 10 or 20 years? >> i think if you look at the trend, we have had a large portion of the population and the age group of 40 265. they start preparing for retirement. they have the income. that age group is now starting to retire. we're looking at an environment where savings have been growing faster than gdp for years, and that is going to start changing quickly. jonathan: what is remarkable is
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political and institutional levels don't get much traction. you can print money. you can't print people. that's a big problem in japan. are there any positive demographic trends? jim: the positive trends are the responses. japan is an interesting story where it's demographic challenges are monumental, but if you look at the last few years you had a labor force that starts to go up. labor force participation is actually rising. if you look at japan from the lens of gdp from a working age population, it is doing better than the u.s.? -- then the u.s. >> is this more bearish for fixed income or equities? it's not always that obvious. jim: i think the clear message is it must be a difficult
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environment for financial assets. real estate globally should be between 2% and 4% higher in the next 10 to 15 years. that's a very big number. tax fixed income or equity. which would i play if i were you? >> i would probably be a little more worried about fixed income because of the valuation, but as people age they are going to want less equity. financial assets are going to struggle. >> we will talk about it a little bit more. coming up, a spanish success or a venezuelan disaster. our next guest says the choice before alexis zip press sounds a little like that. we will have more after the break. -- alexis tsipras sounds a little like that. ♪
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jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." about 30 minutes into the fighting trading day of the week. this is how things are shaping up. the ftse 100 up by 25 points. the dax pushing higher as well. the stoxx 600 just coming off session lows. gains on the periphery as well. let's dig into these indexes and get some of the stock movers with caroline hyde. caroline: leading the charge with the greens. it is all about earnings. seb is coming off of its highs now. now just up 0.5%. the nordic region's biggest
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foreign currency trading bank. profit fell 18%. negative central bank rates put pressure on across the nordic banks. pressure on deposit margins and earnings. the flipside of that is, consumers are more likely to pay you back. suddenly, credit losses are going down. net credit losses, 39% lower. much improved. the chief executive says we operate in exceptional times. meanwhile, electrolux up six .5%. leading the charge on the stoxx 600. number one home appliance maker. first-quarter operating profit beat analyst estimates. they are ramping up their pricing. that helped offset negative moves in foreign currency. european markets are set to expand this year. north america is where the
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weakness is coming in. is it all about new energy regulations? it looks pretty strong. the company continues to expand buying up general electric's home appliance unit. neste oil. you are going to speak to the chief executive. up 4.2%. shares reaching their highest in eight years, john. positive first-quarter earnings. it is all about their products. renewables looking pretty punchy. margin improving. back to you. jonathan: caroline hyde, thank you very much. let's bring it back to greece. the prime minister has a decision to make. will he modernize his country into a spanish-style success or drag it into the this? our next guest is the chief economist at baron berg. he joins us now. a spanish-style success, can we
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call it a success in spain? >> i think we can call it a success. spain had a major rebound across almost all economic sectors. spain has turned the corner for good like ireland did. spain, having had a significant labor market reform, is probably now on course to have more sustainable growth for many years, just like germany. jonathan: when will that start to change unemployment? holger: the process is fairly rapid. coming from a fairly high level, it takes a while. jonathan: in terms of greece, let's talk about the core issue. it can't go on like this. they get a few more euros and it continues. how much longer can it continue? holger: on current information they have enough money to pay
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their bills until may. the that, we don't know. between that, they are accident prone. municipalities now refused to hand over money then maybe they run out of money even earlier. roughly 2-3 weeks is the best guess we have. jonathan: if i sent holger schmieding to broker a deal, how does he do that? what will it take? holger: i think brokering a deal is the wrong way to put it. greece had a deal with europe for a long time. this is about implementing the things greece agreed to do. greece has to sign up. it has to make its labor market more flexible. there has to be some kind of reform. details will probably be negotiated within a few days. greece, you have a choice. honor your commitment the money will come. if you refuse to honor your commitments you get no more money. jonathan: the plan so far has
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failed in their eyes. as far as young as far a fact is is concerned, -- as far as young as varoufakis is concerned, he is the finance minister of an insolvent country. holger: greece depends on the terms of its debt. europe has made a clear offer to greece. if you do the progrowth reforms like spain, europe will make sure that you get so low interest rates and so long maturity on your debt that your debt is not a burden. it is up to greece to take the offer. this is about reforms, not death. jonathan: let's talk about the risk. i'm sure it is difficult to calculate. the story that has gained traction is that you can default but stay in the eurozone. one thing that pops into my mind is the banking sector. how does that work? holger: you can actually default
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without having to leave the currency. municipalities can default in the u.s. if greece defaults, greek banks will have their balance sheet wiped out. somebody has to recapitalize the banks. greece can't do it. either greece needs money from europe which if they get money from euro, they don't have to default, or if they can't get money from europe, they have to recapitalize their banks. default, not technically, but probably would be a precursor to grexit. jonathan: can you have a second currency and stay in the eurozone? holger: these are weird fanciful ideas. they look good in academic discussions, but in practice they don't work. you need to have a currency.
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you could almost get by for a week or two, perhaps a month. either the euro which 70% it will continue to be, or 30% risk it will have to be a new currency. jonathan: let's talk about deadlines. if the deadline was an dead before 2015, greece has well and truly killed the deadline. it doesn't mean much anymore. i keep asking everyone what is the deadline? holger: there is no deadline. europe can wait. there is a deal on offer for greece. it is up to greece to decide whether or not it wants to sign. the one thing that will force greece to decide one way or the other is when does the money run out. current indications are, they have about three more weeks. we don't quite know exactly. jonathan: let's bring it back to what has brought this situation
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up again, the politics. this government feels like they've got a new mandate. a lot of people were talking about the possibility of a referendum. is that something you think can happen? holger: yes, it can happen. especially if this government can't make up its mind which way to lead. this government is still sort of popular. they might want to go for a new election. the problem is, new elections can't solve anything. the prime minister would still have to make the choice to sign up or leave the euro. the referendum might be good. a referendum with not correctly put questions would create more problems. jonathan: what is the outcome? holger: worst-case scenario is that tsipras ditches his election promises within the next three weeks, signs the
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somewhat modified deal, and gets greece back on track to growth. jonathan: you think it is going to happen? holger: 70% yes. that leaves a serious risk it might not. jonathan: holger schmieding will be back. thank you very holger schmieding. up next, traders behaving badly. the u.s. slammed deutsche bank. a series of damning messages between traders. also coming up, is a monster deal dead? sources tell bloomberg that comcast is planning to walk away from their proposed takeover of time warner. ♪
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jonathan: let's get you up to speed with the top stories at bloomberg. santander and unicredit agree to manage -- to merge their asset management businesses. the lenders will each control one third each of the new business. u.s. firms will on the rest. profits of the u.k.'s second-biggest drugmaker fell in the first quarter after currency fluctuations. sales of two of astrazeneca's best-selling drugs are also down as patents expire. samsung is responding to a surge in demand for its galaxy s6 edge smartphone by bumping up
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production on its touchscreen. starting production early will allow samsung to more than double monthly screen output. let's get the latest on deutsche bank. the german lender was fined two point $5 billion for libor manipulation. what stole the headlines were the messages between traders. employees openly calling the system corrupt and "begging for lower rates." our bloomberg european finance editor has more on that story. eliza, what do we know about the traders? all i've heard is trader three. who is trader three? >> trader three was a propriety trader. what we are told is that he specialized in short-term derivatives. according to the doj, he worked with his own colleagues at the firm who were submitting rate
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submissions, and with counterparts at other firms to create rates that would have been favorable to his own accounts. this was part of a pattern of frequent trading instances which were to the benefit of the firm. jonathan: yesterday's element what was fascinating was the press release. you saw the quotes from the traders. the new york department of financial services embarrassed this bank. what is next for deutsche bank? elisa: it was clearly a significant legal challenge. it is the biggest penalty its ever paid and the biggest penalty that has been levied in the interest rate scandal. having said that, the charge which will lead to 1.5 billion euros of legal costs will still
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leave the firm profitable this quarter it said earlier this week. it is now focusing on its next challenge, deciding on a strategic overhaul the biggest since the current management has been at the job. they could see the bank exiting its consumer business. we understand there are meetings happening as soon as today. a decision on that reorganization may be decided. jonathan: thank you, eliza martin is he -- alyssa martin is he. -- elisa martinuzzi. in the u.s., a deal is on the cusp of falling to pieces. sources told us that comcast is planning to drop a takeover bid for time warner cable. we are joined now by matt campbell bloomberg reporter at large. matt, 12-14 months ago it was
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all going swimmingly. over the last couple of days, it seems to have broken down. matt: this transaction hit an enormous regulatory iceberg in washington. i think it was always seen as able to move to combine the company to control 57% of the cable television subscriptions in the u.s. it was always going to be a tough sell. it seems like word came down from the regulatory agencies in the u.s. that this is just not going to happen. it was threatened with an fcc administrative hearing, which is basically a rejection. it appears that comcast are going to pull the bid. jonathan: we talked last year about consolidation. what is next for this sector? matt: this is pretty fascinating. this opens quite a few
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possibilities. certainly, the sector is consolidating other options. charter communications, a small arrival, has been interested in buying time warner cable for some time. they almost bought a big chunk of it. the deal turned into something else. whether time warner cable stays in is very much an open question. then there's the broader question. what does comcast do? it is by far the biggest u.s. cable provider a big media player as well, and with lots of money to burn. jonathan: let's rip up the script a little bit. last year, we saw you almost every morning. if i made a matt campbell index it was peak m&a. i thought the inversion was dead. something happened this week. what is the story? jonathan: -- matt: we had a little one today.
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aires will invert into the u.k. and become a u.k. domicile company. we did have rules coming from washington last year that made inversions harder, but not impossible. you can still do it if certain conditions are satisfied. i think it also helps if you don't really have a household name. when pfizer was trying to invert , everybody knows pfizer. jonathan: if you are small, you slip under the radar? matt: there's probably something to that. one of our colleagues at bloomberg just won a pulitzer prize for documenting the rise in inversions. they have been almost a 30-year story. for 29 or 28 of those years virtually nobody noticed. the companies doing inversions
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were not ones that resonated. all of a sudden, it was big names. jonathan: matt campbell, thank you very much. as we head to the break, here's a picture of the markets. 48 minutes into the session gains across the border. the dax up by 32 points. in the u.s., it took 15 years. the nasdaq reclaims an all-time high. euro-dollar higher. weaker dollar. euro stronger this morning. german business confidence, that is the number to watch. that comes out in 10 minutes time. ♪
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jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." "the pulse" is coming up in just a few minutes time. guy johnson joins us now. guy: we will get a sense of what is happening in the german economy. ryan chilcote has a great interview. he says he could be a legend. jonathan: i haven't met a single person in the city or had a single conversation with anyone that is putting much weight on this story. isn't that remarkable? guy: it is remarkable. there is a sense that it would be staggering if this one man had caused the flash crash.
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i'm not going to prejudice the case. jonathan: it is for the court to decide. the line i saw yesterday that i thought was probably right was, how do you pinpoint a raindrop in the flood? as for greece, a couple weeks ago, we were saying april 24 this big meeting of creditors the deadline. here we are, april 24. jonathan: -- guy: we are in negative territory. jonathan: jurong dice alone, wolfgang schaeuble, all coming out and saying deal, forget a deal. guy: nobody is expecting a deal. that means you should be expecting a deal. they managed to pull the story right out of the bottom of the barrel every time.
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i don't think you can completely rule it out. if you've got guys like that saying those things it is hard to imagine that you are going to get something significant. jonathan: for the tech industry, the nasdaq is playing highly in your show as well. guy: i guess the question we are asking is, is this a single sell? my sense, having been a recorder -- a reporter when i covered the dotocom boom, looks like a different place now. you have facebook talking about monetizing stuff. that really wasn't there. you were trying to finagle all kinds of fancy mess tricks to justify valuations. this time, different story. tech almost is we almost don't have a tech industry anymore. we have industry. it encapsulates everything. it reaches into everything and
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touches everything. very different story right now. i'm not sure there's much to compare it to. jonathan: in terms of stability there might be. i'm on the bloomberg terminal this morning, crunching the numbers. the gains in the nasdaq over the last 12 months, a quarter of it has come from one company. it is apple. is that not staggering? one index is dominated by a single company. guy: i think it is staggering. maybe that is a different story. i think the fact that it has hit that level probably is an apple story and i think that's something to worry about in the future. does apple go the way of ibm? at the moment, it continues to produce what people want and sell at high margins. some people still argue that it looks cheap. jonathan: here's a headline for you. hsbc to start a review of where
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it will be headquartered. going to look at the stock market reaction quickly. up by 2.73% on the day now. we've got one minute left in the show. what do you make of that? guy: michael spencer was talking to me a few days ago. he was saying, if the pressure on the financial sector continues if the pressure on my business continues, i have almost a fiduciary obligation to look at where i focus on my business. that made a lot of headlines. hsbc, post-the last budget, has a right to its shareholders to take a look at where it is basing itself. it doesn't do a lot of business here. should it be based in asia? jonathan: the review is going to start. they can't say what the conclusion will be but the work is underway.
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guy johnson will bring you more on this breaking news from hsbc. stocks trading higher. german business confidence in three minutes. that's it from me. ♪
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jonathan: legendary. the alleged flash crash traders former employer tells bloomberg of endorsing sarao is honest and didn't cause the 2010 flash crash. francine: trader exposed. deutsche bank gets fines for libor manipulations. guy: no deal today. as your rants -- as european's see no progress on greece, we hear from mario draghi later in the program.


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