tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg April 24, 2015 6:00am-7:01am EDT
latvia as greek bonds find a bid. janet yellen and monetary distortion. ed of evercore partners site -- isi. hong kong and the shanghai banking corporation must choose between london and hong kong. this is bloomberg "surveillance." live from new york. friday, april 24. i am tom keene. joining me, brendan greeley and olivia sterns. olivia: this was supposed to be the crucial meeting for greece as european countries who hold the purse strings finance ministers are meeting in riga latvia. growing more frustrated with greek prime minister alexis tsipras. tsipras was supposed to come up with economic reforms. if there is not an agreement soon greece might have to default on debts. tother european officials say greece will not come up with a list until june.
from a done deal to dead. comcast is planning to walk away from the proposed 45 billion dollars merger with time warner cable as soon as today. the deal was announced 14 months ago, opposition took shape and that left consecutive's -- executive to conclude the merger would not fly. a former fcc commissioner praised the move. >> comcast is making a smart decision. it benefits consumers. olivia: on wednesday fcc officials told both companies they were opposed. saying the deal did not help consumers. they planned to call a hearing which would drag out the classes -- the process. reviewing the drone strike in pakistan that killed two hostages. president obama issued a rare
public policy. the president calls for drone strikes to be authorized only when it can be concluded to near certainty that there will not be civilian casualties. brendan: the nasdaq picking up where it left off. technology stocks brought the nasdaq to a record high yesterday, beating the mark set in march 2000 before the bust. amazon and google are higher in premarket trading. tickets went on sale to the public for next week's big fight between floyd mayweather and mary pacquiao. they sold out in a minute. you will have to go to the secondary market. average price is about $11,000. slightly more than the average price of super bowl tickets this year. the bout will be held at the mgm
grand casino. tom: i know there is a big thing at madison square garden. is boxing back. olivia: i don't know. these are the old stars. brendan: they are not heavyweights. they just pound each other. i am not a fan that it is amazing to watch them move. olivia: i know how to punch. brendan: show us. olivia: with a twist. brendan: you've got to snap it. tom: very good. that's what he teaches you. a data check. morning brief first, excuse me. brendan: 8:30 a.m., durable goods orders and american airlines will report. tom: durable goods is interesting. futures churn euro advances
with riga. 1.0854. oil a 60 on west texas intermediate would be something. vix showing complacency, under 13. dow turning back over 18,000. brent crude. to the bloomberg terminal, this is durable goods, capital goods i should say. ex-boeing ex-aircraft on a year-over-year basis. things are ok but not great. great is a one year moving average here. we're nowhere near great. brendan: here is my question. you showed this to me half an hour ago. does this capture secular movement we are not so much a country that makes stuff, we are a country that does stuff? tom: a little bit of that. mostly what it is is what is the "umph" to get us back to the
good feelings. brendan: "umph" is a technical term. olivia: cheap power. tom: let's look at our international relations today. that means latvia. meeting in riga. boring from the usual suspects. hans nichols is in riga. one big yawn. what do you want to glean on friday? hans: it was a headline until the headline crossed moments ago on the bloomberg terminal that said yanis varoufakis took "a hammering" inside the meeting. according to three people familiar with the talks. some complaints, accusations against varoufakis was that he was an immature, a gambler, a time waster. intense comments directed at
yanis varoufakis. it's breaking up shortly and we expect everyone to go to the cameras. for a sense of how frustrating finance ministers were have a look at what mr. dijsselbloem the your group president said. mr. dijsselbloem: it's a matter of urgency for the greek side to get the deal to make sure there is enough money available to keep the government running. hans: the expectation heading in is that we would not have a of progress. we've actually gone backwards. at the beginning, wolfgang schaeuble the german finance minister, he said what is everyone doing in riga? he encouraged us to go see the city. we had a blowup inside the meeting and we have to wait for what the market reaction is going to be. tom: varoufakis said to take
hammering from frustrated eu ministers, we have seen this headline. brendan: this does seem to be of a different quality. i have a long-running bet with michael here that yanis varoufakis will still be finance minister of greece this summer michael believes he will not. who will win the bet? hans: if you are betting in dollars, you should that in -- bet in euros or drachmas. varoufakis if his base support is in the syriza party that is a better question for our athens reporter. if his ability to do his job is contingent on the trust and likability is contingent on the fellow euro finance ministers, you will lose. we are trying to figure out what is going on inside the room and it is full of platitudes. usual diplo-speak.
the fact that people are using "irresponsible, gambler amateur," we have not gotten comment from mr. varoufakis that marks a deterioration. tom: hans nichols in riga. ed has pasted together charts into a 15 page note. there has been no greater copyright theft than the stealing of isi daily notes. ed hyman has tried to go further than guess the fed. it has influenced a generation of wall street strategists. when you were at austin or nit, negative interest rates were not
in the textbook, where they? ed hyman on greece riga and the absurdity of the times we live in with negative rates. ed: i'm not sure they are absurd. you see the nasdaq is making a new high. the msci world stock index probably made a new high today. the weakness in the economy is causing central bankers to be very easy. that is creating a favorable environment for financial assets. tom: do you have confidence to be in the markets given the economic set ever core isi. ed: i look at central bank policies, the economy is growing some. you talked about ticket prices for boxing. people are still pretty skeptical. i think that, nation gives you
worthwhile footing to be in the market olivia: that to greece for a second. do you think markets are underestimating the fallout of a grexit? ed: i think there will be some resolution of it. if greece does pull out, that will be a negative for the markets. usually when the markets are focused on something as intently as this, is not the thing to focus on. brendan: i am looking at your note and it is almost as if you wrote it to make tom keene happy. boj ecb in power plays. is that the underlying dynamic that matters? everything else is just noise? ed: that is the most important backdrop. that you have china, japan and ecb all easing. the fed is still ultra stimulative. so with that backdrop, and an economy that is not that strong
you end up with a pretty good back drop for financial markets. tom: your a claim is inherent optimism. how do you respond to larry summers' stagnation or the idea of new low terminal rates or terminal values america gloom. ed: my view is we will look back at this period five years from now and we will be in an expansion. we will say this has been the best environment. slow and steady. we are having a favorable pattern. larry sees it as a stagnation, i see it as slow and steady progress. tom: you printed no recession until out there. very good. ed hyman. a ofdoozy -- a doozy of a
chart. olivia: much more to come on bloomberg "surveillance." comcast's bid to take over time warner cable is dead. what it means for the future of the industry. our twitter question of the day, what should comcast do with its $45 billion? tweet us @bsurveillance. we are streaming on your tablet your phone, and bloomberg.com. good morning. ♪
we'll get to those headlines. brendan: the one thing that has meaning is what hans nichols just told us. there was a departure from the normal diplomatic language. reports by ian of bloomberg saying varoufakis was called in the meeting "gambler" and of a good time waster. tom: the heavyweights in latvia. mr. dragi speaks. olivia: the dl, it seems, -- the deal, it seems, ids dead. comcast dropping its bid to take over time warner cable. official word could come as soon as today. craig moffett says the future is clear as mud.
he joins us by phone. thank you for joining us. so many different directions. we are trying to figure out what the fallout is. why do you say a charter bid for twc might be most likely? craig: charter was the one that cake this off in june 2013 when -- kicked this off in june 2013 when they made clear their intent to acquire time warner cable. charter has the inside track to try it again and i think it is almost certain they will give it a shot. olivia: what is next for brian roberts? does he start from scratch? what his plan b. craig: comcast will have to spend time licking its wou nds. it would be provocative for comcast to propose another transaction in the u.s. that is not just cable systems, it would also mean content.
trying to buy a content company right now what probably be seen as problematic in washington. for the time being, i think they are probably out of this race for m&a. when they come back, they are likely to look overseas instead of trying to test the waters in washington. brendan: let's talk about what the waters are like in washington. the head of the fcc used to be the head lobbyist for the cable association, tom wheeler. a comedian calls him a dingo trying to guard your baby. what do you see the waters being like in washington for the next two years? craig: you say, wait a second, we have had two of the most important regulatory decisions in media and telecom in a generation comes just within the last few months. one, obviously, is the rejection
of the comcast deal. that's in the context of the fcc's decision to reclassify the broadband business as a title to service. you have really had a complete about-face in the regulatory environment. if there is one caution i would give to investors in this space, i think everybody is looking carefully at the relative values of the individual cable companies. and convincing themselves of this and that. it is time to step back and say what is this new regulatory environment mean to the warranted values of this set of assets? olivia: it does look like a new regulatory environment. craig moffett, we could keep you but we have to let you go. craig moffett of moffett nathanson. tom: riga latvia. waiting for mr. draghi's comm ents. mr. dijsselbloem speaks, some tough talk regarding greece.
john boehner was on "with all due respect" last night. here's what he had to say about hillary clinton. john boehner: she violated the law. and the idea that she was going to use her own server and do official business on it -- it goes against every transparency issue that the president likes to tout. olivia: boehner was asked whether he thinks hillary clinton is morally and ethically fit to be a leader he said yes. tom: ed hyman with evercore isi. and got to ask you about religion and timing of the elections effecting the stock market. you have done a lot of research. is there any validity linking our national politics with the ebb and flow of the markets? ed: the economic forces are so unusual and so dominant that i do not look at the election right now. tom: will you in a year?
ed: maybe. but right now the economic backdrop, whether it is china or europe or what is going on here central banking -- it is so much more dominant than the political backdrop. brendan: we talk about politics what we mean is fiscal policy. have you given up thinking that fiscal policy might change in the u.s.? ed: occasionally i visit that it might. i think it would be a positive. if we could get into some infrastructure building. i think that might happen in the next three or four years. brendan: this is something the administration has made a push on. can you handicap that? ed: i cannot. you can feel it would be favorable. olivia: maybe we will actually build a highway. brendan: economists say that is
what makes sense and yet politically we are unable to do it. ed: there may be some of that going on with public-private combinations. they are raising money at very low interest rates and building some roads here and there. i would guess that if the expansion keeps going like i think it well, you could get into, as the budget gets better and better there is a feeling that we could do something -- tom: without getting into politics, do you care who becomes president? is that jermaine anymore? -- germane anymore? ed: there's a feeling that whether it is jeb bush or hillary clinton, either one would be acceptable to both liberals and conservatives. maybe not the choice of each one but i get the feeling you could get a coming together. tom: i will rip up the script. how do we get the rest of america hooked, relinked with ed hyman's manhattan and wall street? ed: you do not want to do that.
i travel around a lot. every place i go is doing well. every place i go is doing well whether it is seattle or charleston, miami or austin, san francisco is booming. boston is pretty good. tom: ed hyman, we will come back on the federal reserve. very importantly. in our next hour, we bring you shannon o'neil of the council on foreign relations. on brazil and cuba. stay with us, bloomberg "surveillance." ♪
tom: good morning, everyone. brendan greeley and olivia sterns. ed hyman with us on the fed. let's go to our top headlines. olivia: greece's finance minister insists that disagreements can be resolved. he's not expected to present a reform plan at today's meeting in riga. the eu has refused to unlock more money for greece until the country agrees to reforms. greece need $7 billion so it can pay upcoming debt.
greece had an april date to agreed to reforms. mr. dijsselbloem: the deadline is more important to the greek side than the eurogroup. it's in matter of urgency to make sure there's enough money available to keep the government running. olivia: the talk is that the end of june is a more likely deadline. comcast could not overcome objections from federal regulators. bloomberg is reporting the company will walk away from the $45 billion merger with time warner cable. the two companies had been waiting for government approval for 14 months. antitrust lawyers at the justice department and staff members at the fcc indicated they were going to oppose the deal. they did not think the merger would help consumers. comcast's formal decision may come later today. the british trader blamed in part for the 2000 flash crash spent another night in london.
navinder singh sarao has not come up with bail. what the future holds for sarao. >> it can go one of two ways. if he is found innocent, he will be the world's superstar trader. the most famous trader in the world. if he's found guilty he will become another infamous trader. olivia: we've been learning about sarao. in an e-mail last year to british regulators, he defended his success as the benefit of a quick mind. brendan: another ice cream maker recalling its products after potentially deadly listeria was discovered. jenny's ice cream is closing its shops. the columbus, ohio-based firm sells ice cream in whole foods
and target. blue bell recalled products three people died after eating bluebell ice cream contaminated with listeria. a struggling teen retailer, abercrombie and fitch saying bye-bye beefcake. olivia: quite a video clip. brendan: no longer featuring male models with ripped ads. doing away with the policy for employees. you do not have to be good-looking to work there. rules on makeup and jewelry have been eased. getting rid of the legacy of mike jeffries, the ceo who left last december. olivia: the pan down on that photo is suggestive. brendan: in better days. a turn good luck with this. year's biggest -- europe's
biggest bank,hsbc, considering moving its base away from the u.k. francine lacqua joins us from london. according to the chairman of hsbc, work is underway. what are we talking about? are they thinking about this or are they sending a signal to the election underway in the u.k.? francine: i think they are thinking about this. last time they did this was in 2010. they have come under pressure from investors. the chairman was at an investor meeting in hong kong monday. they are getting pressure to move because they are paying so much tax. the reason he is giving for the review, which could take a year or two or three years, is that they are paying too much tax and this is likely to go up. and also regulatory concerns in the u.k.. if you look at the political parties, it has become a hot
potato because we are two weeks from the elections. parties are saying thanks will have to pay more. something hsbc objects to. brendan: what is the bigger risk, increased regulatory oversight from the ecb or an exit from the european union, period? francine: a little bit of both. when we caught up or listened to the conference call, one of the things they were saying was also the u.k. possible exit from the eu. this is a major concern to any bank. if you look at hsbc, it is not only regulation and that they are paying more taxes this is a bank that has come under scrutiny. there is also a threat of breaking up this bank. maybe this is a way of getting around. tom: ed hyman is with us from evercore isi. your glenn follows the banks. ed hyman, hsbc is clearly a formal bank. is this a good way for american
banking to go? are those days is the romance gone? ed: pretty much gone. we're in what ken rogoff called a past financial crisis environment. after a financial crisis there's a tendency for people and politics to go against the banks. that is what is happening. tom: what you advocate a study to break up jp morgan or other big banks? ed: no. tom: are they too big? ed: it is not my favorite way. i do think that the banks, you sought in the paper today that deutsche bank is paying a $2.5 million fine. olivia: we have a few more headlines coming out of mario draghi, who is speaking about greece. do you want to dip in? he's saying that progress has been achieved on greece in the
last few days. perhaps playing a little bit of good cop, varoufakis has been called a gambler and the tone has been critical. mario draghi is saying ela assistance will continue as long as greek banks are solvent but they may examine haircuts. tom: i've will go with haircuts. i love your haircut. francine, this is the same thing as the previous 19 meetings for americans. for francine lacqua, what is different? francine: you see the finance ministers being a little bit mad. this is the diplomatic way of putting it. to hans' point, for the first time we understand that eu ministers are calling greece. they are saying this is not fair. you are not negotiating so we cannot give you anything.
is nothing different apart from the fact that nothing is different. you've had 22 or 23 meetings and we still do not have an agreement. it seems at this point nobody wants to have the legacy of kicking greece out of the euro. not a legacy that angela merkel wants yet we do not have an agreement. brendan: i'm looking at a headline from draghi. he says emergency lending authority will continue as long as greek banks are solvent. seems like circular logic, they are not solvent unless they have ela. francine: we had an accomplice -- we had an economist and he was saying this is the problem. the emergency liquidity assistance is what is keeping greek banks alive. draghi says we have to put pressure on greece but he does not want to be the one pulling back. as soon as he does not get back,
the lights go off in greece in the banking system. olivia: is the eurogroup still relevant? does it matter what the other finance ministers are saying about varoufakis? is this a conversation between alexis tsipras and angela merkel? francine: the finance ministers have an impact on angela merkel's thinking. it is not a matter of germany versus greece. we understand from insiders that countries such as portugal and italy are putting extra pressure on greece. let me remind you, the problem with leaving greece to either default or giving them better conditions is that then the people that had tough austerity measures say i want a better deal as well and that is when the project unravels. tom: france in the clock, thank you. some -- francine lacqua, thank
you. drama in riga. ed hyman is with us. we will look at the markets and the fed. a classic chart. this is the ibbotson chart. it is logarithmic, the slope matters. the decline on the left, the carter malaise, in the 1970's. you look at the equivalent decline, which has never happened. we have become so defensive, we do not know what a bear market is. we do not even know what a correction is. we have forgotten about the volatility of our history. ed:. thing about this is while the market has been going up
people are still very skeptical. so far this year, individuals have taken about $35 billion out of equities and put $55 billion into bonds. we survey hedge funds every week. they're slightly defensive. your chart is right, we are climbing a wall of worry. at some point that will change. when it does change, that is when we will be set for a correction. tom: is dividend yield growth an equivalent? financial repression, you have talked about this. old people, retirees have gotten crushed. is a dividend growth equivalent to a yield? ed: dividend growth people do not look at. dividends cannot immediately after the quarter. dividends after the first quarter work up at a 30% annual
rate quarter to quarter and 15% year every year. as part of the saga of deals going on. we talked about the comcast deal. there has been almost 1000 deals in the past 13 months. a little over $5 trillion. you have a surge in dividends. ed: are you smarter because you get to talk to roger altman and ralph schloss -- ralph schlosstein every day? olivia: are they a product of financial engineering? ed: we are on a slow road. people are not into building new factories so they do deals and buybacks. in the future when people are more confident about the
outlook, they will go to building instead of buying. brendan: we look at volatility and it is not that much different than 30 or 40 years ago. the one thing that has changed is that there has been an underlying credit crisis. doesn't that change the way we look at that chart? ed: absolutely. it goes back to the financial crisis, ken rogoff's this time is different. it is pervasive and people have a strong muscle memory about what happened. there is still holding back. tom: ed hyman with us. we will talk about stanley fishel and -- stanley fischer and janet yellen. we have some good photos. brendan: the nasdaq closed at an all-time high. we are doing a throwback. that is amazing. when we see the mascot,
the pet food supply chain known for the bubble burst. an indicator of a pending dotcom bubble. olivia: a fall from grace and a symbol of the tech boom. ed hyman, tech companies leading the nasdaq are older and more profitable. wathat is the most important difference between nasdaq in 2000 versus today? ed: the number of people on the internet has exploded. a couple million back then. now it is a zillion. a huge difference. olivia: they are not just buying pet food. ed: back then, companies had concepts and now they are huge businesses. brendan: the puppet survived. as a celebrity after pets.com went bust.
in chile, the calbuco volcano. ash was shot six miles into the sky. a huge respiratory problem for the locals. it's contaminating the water and a lot of flights in and out of chile halted as well. number one, wait -- look at that. ash six miles into the sky. that is incredible. ok. number one photo, especially for tom. 25 years since the hubble telescope was launched into space. nasa has released a 3-d simulation of the nebula. the cluster contains some of the largest and brightest star clusters ever.
the hubble changed the way we think about it. tom: go to the smithsonian air and space museum. nasa has done a class act. it is really cool. hubble turns 25. riga is 25 minutes into a discussion. we await varoufakis. tie or no tie? he will speak in riga. we will have the headlines. back in two minutes with ed hyman of evercore isi. good morning from new york city. ♪
loretta lynch will be the first black female attorney general. her aides asay she wants to find common ground and improve cooperation between communities and law enforcement. apple stores will not have apple watches. those ordered today might not be shipped until july. tom: the drummer from riga -- th e drama from riga. leaders speak. dijsselbloem regling. shannon o'neil is here. we tilted to cuba. olivia sterns will lead us off with the mayor of athens greece. really looking forward to that. i want to ask about rem.
that's a joke. call it the evercore isi wall of worry. the dollar is too strong, capex is too weak, christine lagarde's new mediocre. janet yellen has to get to september or december and miracles will happen. ed hyman is the founder of isi and chart paragraph. this is what janet yellen reads every morning. this is from my childhood. this is classic -- do you still do this with scissors? ed: no, electronic. tom: iconic isi. he cuts out the headlines from the newspapers. how has your business changed in the last 20 years? what is different? given the speed. ed: it is just that.
this used to be mailed out, then fax. the difference between male and fax is they are both expensive. then you have e-mail, the internet and electronic, it explodes. brendan: olivia, faxing is a way of sending a document. olivia: glad we are having nostalgia. tom: a fed discussion, are we getting too much information from janet yellen? is there too much information? ed: i don't think so. the markets are trying to slowly approached the fed tightening. and the risk is that when the fed titans once the markets assumes they will go immediately to the terminal rate. the markets discount that. you could have a spasm in the market where bond yields go up 100 basis points and tight -- when they tighten 25 because of
the market discount. the fed is trying to talk about it so when they tighten it is not a surprise. brendan: are you a dot watcher. ed: i am not. i watched them, but i watch the weight they - -the -- the way they move. tom: stanley fischer's speech ultra extension. what does he mean? ed: if they tighten 25 basis points, they go from altra to extremely. trying to lay the groundwork. olivia: it is still an extraordinary environment. to what extent does the strength of the dollar delay the rate hike or make the slope or trajectory of the rate increases? ed: it slows it down. as i go through any business cycle, one of the things that
happens as a marker is the fed titans. -- fed tightens. when the fed tightens, that sets the clock. typically the recession starts five years later. olivia: a tightening cycle is not negative for equities. tom: this is the heart of an ed hyman report. this is the famous ed hyman black market with arrow. people pay thousands just to have this. do you do that still? ed: electronic. tom: it is all electronic. the truth is out. olivia: oil is bottomed? why? ed: first, it collapsed. second, the rig count collapsed. oil has been unchanged for over two months. that is the trifecta. tom: what did analysts get wrong
as they look for $25 a barrel? ed: oil stabilized for two months, rate count -- rig count collapsed that leads to an upturn in oil. brendan: we have got shannon o'neil to talk about latin america. are developing markets insulated from a fed rate hike this time? ed: no. brendan: what kind of chaos do you expect? ed: i do not expect chaos but it is negative for the emerging markets. all else equal. when the fed tightens you will have another spike in the dollar. brendan: is there a difference between negative and catastrophic? will it be negative or catastrophic? ed: negative. tom: ed hyman, great to have you. please come back. ed hyman with evercore isi. mr. varoufakis speaks in riga.
it's predictable stuff. olivia: he's saying that he predicts greece will reach an aid accord with partners as soon as possible. his op-ed today, the final sentence is "their task," speaking of the troika, "is to let go of an approach that has failed." brendan: he is not just talking about the troika's agreement with greece he's talking about the way the imf has approached lending. olivia: he is saying i want new terms. tom: where are we on monday with the soap opera? brendan: i don't know that we learned anything new. everybody was clear that nothing was going to come out of riga. riga has happened, nothing has happened. tom: futures up two. a forex report.
cash does greece have left. the answer is not enough. eu finance ministers gather in riga latvia. we consider the future of cuba amidst a complex latin american calculus. shannon o'neil joins us from the council on foreign relations. now what for brian roberts and comcast? this is bloomberg "surveillance," live from our world headquarters. friday, a pattani for. -- a pattani for. -- april 24. i am tom keene. top headlines. here's olivia. olivia: this was supposed to be the crucial meeting for greece and european countries who hold the purse strings. meeting in riga and growing more frustrated with greek prime minister alexis tsipras. tsipras was supposed to come up with economic reforms needed to