tv On the Move Bloomberg April 30, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT
plunges 56%. the oil market collapse eats into the bottom line. a third-quarter loss of 436 million pounds related to restructuring and currency manipulation continued to mount. i g at futures. we are pretty much higher. that's not much of a reversal is it? manus: you are spot on. 12 billion euros was wiped off the market book. for me it was all about the bonds. you saw the biggest spike higher in german government bond yields and almost seven weeks. 12 basis points. an eighth of 1%. people were talking about 0%. lever me up 100 times.
how short was he? there has been this magnificent change. revaluing risk is perhaps the most important thing. i read a lovely piece saying the drop in the dollar was possibly tied to the fact that risk possibly dissipating with a new team in place to negotiate on behalf of greece trying to put this together to have something to deliver to finance ministers. a mixed open. london virtually unchanged. you are seeing the poor of europe -- the core of europe on the downside. let's get to individual stocks. rbs don't over 1%. you have a loss figure the market anticipated.
i don't know whether he is running his laundry list, but litigation, 856 million pounds. an additional 334 million pounds in exchange. it was a stormy session for the midterms of investment banking. i caught up with the cfo in the last half hour. they say, are these sustainable? not sustainable. stop down at this moment. equity trading was up 23%. the question is is it sustainable. oil taking the right out. we will run you through the details. they have taken it on the chin in terms of shale on shore.
they are writing down 46 billion norwegian krone. statoil down -- is up nearly 3%. mark: what a busy morning. let's get you up to speed with some of that data. spanish inflation and gdp. a preliminary reading comes in at 0.9% quarter on quarter. inflation not so pretty. cpi -0.7%. the growth number is a little more punchier. here is some of the data coming out later. at the end of the hour we will get figures out of germany. we get the all-important inflation data from the eurozone and then a russian decision.
the survey, a 100 basis point cut. let's turn to another central bank. the bank of japan refraining from boosting stimulus as inflation comes to a halt and the third-biggest economy. the boj cut its inflation forecast. governor kuroda, if he disappointed anyone, it was those people who expected a little more stimulus. >> the market expected nothing to happen today. that's exactly what we got with the bank of japan maintaining that pace of bond buying. not adding to monetary stimulus especially not bond buying. the market suspects in june or july we may see a cut to the deposit rate, and that would be in the tool chest. he is asking the market for
patients. even as he faces significant political pressure from the prime minister's government. this as inflation remains anemic. it has stalled. his view, as oil prices continue to trend slightly higher, that impact will have -- that will have an impact on inflation. earlier the japanese could spend more. now as oil prices come to level that will drive inflation higher. he suspects the inflation forecast to play out at the 2% level he has maintained for two years by april 2015. we do have the bank of japan revising its cpi forecast for this year. that caused the move in the yen. check it out. it is trading at the 118.88
level. this had an impact on the currency as well as the stock market. they said 2.1%. they are going in the opposite direction of what the market would like to see. >> we are joined. he helps manage assets. the bank of japan. a few people expecting more stimulus. let's talk markets. >> i think ultimately the bank of japan they are seeing the huge amount of stimulus.
when we see von yields get to those levels, investors shouldn't be surprised. i don't think this triggers a backup in yields. you have to be wary. >> yesterday was a sell everything scenario. the bond market is down as well. >> it's an interesting point. you look for correlation benefits. now we have had such an
overvalued on market and negative yields in cash, some of the correlation benefits breakdown. where we are seeing a lot of investors migrate to how you look at your portfolio. you dynamically re-await your portfolio based on sustained moves or volatility rather than just valuations. mark: i will have trillions of dollars of assets sit in front of me. we will talk about how investors are concerned about correction. the investors you speak to, are they concerned about a correction? >> yes. that's interesting because very recently we have done a significant survey around decision-makers. we have seen a response for those decision-makers. they have continued.
those respondents are saying they have material concern in the magnitude of 10 or 20%. there is a contradiction. investors are seeking return in yields and portfolios. at the same time, they believe there is significant correction coming forward. our challenge is how we navigate that for our clients and allow them to participate in their portfolios. mark: what do they tell them? >> some look at correlation in the portfolio but you have to be wary, given where we are on the valuations on things like the bond markets. what we are doing is talking
about volatility, dynamic asset allocations using volatility triggers. when you see volatility pickup, looking to rebalance your portfolio as a less risky asset or even potentially look at things like low volatility equity strategies rather than just rod equity exposure. >> that's great. fascinating insight. thank you for joining us. next, big oil. the crude collapse at the bottom line. we speak to the ceo as the company catches a euro tail wind. then we had to paris. we speak exclusively to the ceo as the company prepares to form the biggest cement manufacturer in the world. join us after this break. ♪
>> it was big. they strip out the noise versus an expectation of two in a half-million. the question i had was would the shares rise. investors are happy to have shares up the most they have gone up in two weeks. shell basically saw its bacon saved by the same thing. the other companies said that is refining and trading. just to give you perspective, they are bringing the profit down tenfold. two thirds comes from refining trading contributing. will the shares stay up today? they certainly will, because for every year since 2005 when we reported the first quarter earnings, the shares have risen, and they are on that path today. jonathan: what is the breakdown of statoil?
>> also for the same reasons. the company taking a $6 billion repayment on its european assets. no surprise. investors shaking that off. we have seen shelter do it before about a year ago. the bottom line is natural gas prices in the united states are real low. so are oil prices. some of these bets on shale. the companies have to reckon with the fact the assets are not worth quite as much. jonathan: just a few final thoughts. stoxx 600 was breaking down the numbers this morning. you have got 72% beating on revenue. do you expect this to continue to pick up? >> i think we are expecting more upside surprises in europe.
if you look at the fundamental drivers we have had in the previous three quarters, we have had oil collapse by 50%. we have had a 40% correction. these are all drivers. expect upside prices coming through. if we don't we have to ask where are the tailwinds actually coming in. that would be a concern. if we come through this we don't have the reports on the stats. jonathan: you have been adding to positions in the oil majors? >> we have definitely been adding to the eurozone's. we have been supportive of some of the valuations. we do like a value tilt. we think some of the fundamental drivers are going to kick in like earnings and valuations. jonathan: thank you very much
joins me now. great to have you with us. you lifted the forecast. that's good news for a lot of people. can you talk to me about the exchange rate for the rest of the year? >> we're assuming an exchange rate that is the average exchange rate at the end of march. we didn't have that much positive effect in the first quarter. the first quarter was very good and very strong operationally in topline and bottom line, but for the remainder of the year we expect to get nice tailwind in addition to a strong business performance. mark: i want to talk about the bond market. you are redeeming the bond you did in 2005. can you talk to me about the
thinking and what you're seeing in the bond market and how your company can take advantage of that? >> it's no secret interest rates have gone down significantly. the circumstances are so positive right now for companies with good credit ratings to issue debt and retire old debt. we are taking advantage of it. we did a position last year when we bought the business for $14 billion. of course we had to finance it. i'm pleased to say it had a good first quarter this year. being able to finance it at current interest rates is very positive.
mark: let's talk about the strategy. you are examining your diabetes unit. where are we with the diabetes unit? what is the thinking behind that? >> we have not said we are planning to sell the diabetes business. diabetes is a good business. there is a strong medical need. our position is good, but prices have suffered significantly since u.s. health care reform. we are evaluating what we will do longer-term. we have announced we are wanting to not sell it but put it into the stock market as a separate public company. we are well on track to do that by at the latest the middle of next year. >> you are a company focused on
life sciences and plants. are you considering further streamlining from here? >> no, because we think we have a relatively unique situation in our industry that we can work on developing new molecules and improving the health of humans and plants. there is a long-term synergy and doing cross species type of research. we had good organic growth over the last few years, plus some of these acquisitions we did our positioning us very strongly -- our positioning us very strongly. mark: analysts are talking about this drug that could be a blockbuster. i understand you will present some trial results in august.
why is it such an interesting product for you and can it be a blockbuster drug? >> yes, it can be. it's a very promising new treatment where a medical need is identified. we had some positive news already in the phase two trial recently, but the big trial results are coming out in august. we have a lot of projects in different trials. i would say our pipeline is well filled. we introduced five new products that are driving organic growth. it's important to make sure there is something coming after that. that is what we are working on. mark: thank you for joining us. i am pleased to tell you an intelligence expert is with us as well. what a busy morning. pike's peak standouts.
the euro is helping the companies that reported. that's not exactly a surprise. bayer is one of those companies that if you look at the large cap pharma world and compare it with the industry, in terms of pharmaceutical growth they are at the top of that. they are a very diversified company. it's exactly the right thing to do for this company. the market has responded to that. mark: we talked about the currency effect. are they masking some of the problems generating growth? >> yes, no company is hiding it. it is hurting because of pressures in the u.s. sales were down 13%. that's a big hit for a company
jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." i'm jonathan ferro. 30 minutes into your trading day and this is a picture of the equity markets right now. more losses. the ftse 100 off by 20 points. the dax 5% losses. let's switch the board and get to the other asset classes. bonds selling off once again. yesterday the biggest selloff in german bonds in terms of yields and basis points since 2013. you strip out to moves, ok. we're still at some very low levels.
34 basis points. the move higher today, the yield was lower than that. unbelievable moves in this market in last couple of days. the q.e. trade in the first three months going into reverse. equities selling off. bonds selling off. i'll break it down more for you later. this morning, we have been alcoholic a block with economic earnings. lafarge said it is entering its final stages with a merger that would make it the world's biggest cement maker. i'm very pleased to say we're joined now for an exclusive interview with bruin c.e.o. of lafarge. let's talk about what everyone else wants to talk about. it is deal. yesterday it gets the backing of euro cement. can we assume it is a done deal now?
bruno: we are in the final step of the merger and the final step means the approval by the shareholders. then the exchange with the lafarge sheryls and we are of course confident in the beginning but more and more confident on the success of the merger because the merger is very credible in terms of value creation. immense potential to transform our industries. jonathan: bruno, euro cement. they want a few things. can you make room on the board for euro cement on the formed company? bruno: the merger is completed. euro cement is a whole seller of
holcim. i cannot say more about it. i can just say that euro cement is valuable to the completion of the merger and we have at lafarge, always had a friendly approach to shareholders and to partners. which are in this global of course so are very local businesses. >> holcim shareholders vote on this on may 8. an advisor to swiss pension funds advising them to reject the deal. as far as you're concerned, the swiss company has take an bigger stake in the formed company, if you had done enough on your side to make this deal happen? bruno: i think both companies have done a lot to make this
deal happen. we have done extraordinary work in the last 13 months which is first to get almost 90% of the regulatory approvals to do the dwestments at the same time. and to prepare the day one after the merger means to be ready, to start to deliver all the synergies which remember are amounting up to 1.4 billion euro. jonathan: they seem to think your limited investment could have a negative impact on the financial results of the new group. what is your response to that? bruno: i think lafarge has experimented, maybe early. a new model of investment which is first to try sell to, save on
capital expenditure. not by stopping to invest but by reusing the cost of investment and improving the time of investment. so, no. we have done that. we have improved our capital allocation process. we have reduced the cost of our investments and tame our performance has improved. but it is true that today we ares manage much newer plans than years ago when we were mostly in europe and north america. jonathan: bruno, you look at the earnings of both companies this morning. what do you expect to be the main challenge for the merged companies? which markets are doing fine and which ones will be more problematic in the future for you? bruno: i think the beauty of this deal is to improve the --
naturally by of the different -- which are -- at the same time by merging, we are risking each region because each region will have a lower percentage in the new group and so overall this balance is very important and we will continue to optimize it for you after the merger. the most important from the day one will be to deliver the synergies and create this new company, this new culture which will be made differentiating through innovation and also investing wisely and structuring growth and also with a very disciplined capital alvegas. working on returns for shareholders. jonathan: i want to wrap things up by talking about europe quickly. we talk a lot about green shoots.
i want to get a comment from you because you have boots on the ground. bruno: the first quarter is always a weak quarter in europe. because we are in the northern hemisphere. we can say this is a trend from there. but what i see is that, you know there are several things which are playing the right direction at the same time. the monetary policy of the european central bank, the oil prices and also the lower inflation that we have. so all of this may help europe to start a garagal recovery. so that is what we see in some markets already. we hope that all the markets will join the curve. today, of course, and clearly, france is doing less well than other markets, but france was more resilient others and i'm
talking about construction. jonathan: great to have you with us this morning. the lafarge c.e.o. bruno lafont joining us on bloomberg this morning. later this morning, the holcim chief executive joins "the pulse" for his first interview of the day. r.b.s. underwhelms. we'll bring you the numbers next. looking at markets almost 40 minutes into the session. kind of a mini repeats of yesterday. we'll talk about these markets in the next hour. join us in two. ♪
jonathan: good morning and welcome back. let's get straight to it. these are your equity markets now. another day of losses. the ftse 100 off. the dax off .2%. two days previously 5% of losses. let's switch up the board and get to the other asset classes. euro/dollar punching higher. yesterday and we go higher again today. a stronger euro. the move in german bonds is what everyone is talking about. the biggest yield. yields go higher again today. up by five basis points. what a move the this bond market yesterday.
brent up .2%. also moving higher and heading for the biggest month of gains since 2009. a fascinating market this morning. let's get to stocks on the move with caroline hyde. caroline: i've got one big faller for you. down 15%. a steel maker of alloyed tubing as well. it clearly is showing the pain. 2,000 jobs to go. 75% of those 2,000 will come out of europe. earnings missed in the first quarter. earnings just 53 million euros. estimated to be three times that. the biggest faller on the stoxx 600. another key faller is nokia showing why they want to do that deal with alcatel-lucent.
profit missing analyst estimates in their network business. this is all about phone equipment as the mobile companies beef up their infrastructure. these are the companies that supply them. yahweh. revenue rose but profitability is under stress. this is why they want to hook up with alcatel-lucent and why they agreed to buy them this month. they are trying to curve costs and overall look to expand and take on that competition. let's look on the bright side. that is portuguese food company. first quarter beat analyst estimates.
jonathan: there we go. thank you very much, caroline. let's talk banking now. b.n.p. paribas reported a jump in profit. we spoke to the company's c.f. nombings paris and said positive trends are re-emerging across europe. >> if we stay in europe and we're seeing there were some shackles on growth. steps have been taken to remove gradually these shackles. it seems these green shoots are showing some glimmers of hope that they will blossom. for the rest i think we'll have to see how the equilibrium unfolds going forward. jonathan: i'm pleased to say manus cranny joins us now with more on b.n.p. paribas and r.b.s. which posted a greater loss than expected. manus cranny, give me the highlights from b.n.p. first. manus: thank goodness we have an
investment bank. equity markets doing well jon. that contributed wholeheartedly to the number. the lang garage the c.e.o. talking about early recovery -- language from the c.e.o. talking about early recovery. consumer banking in france under a little bit of pressure. jonathan: manus cranny r.b.s., you think they are going to improve and then they don't. loss is bigger than expected. more bad news. when are we going to see the turnaround? what was the bad news this morning? manus: take away all the noise. the restructuring costs and the conduct and litigation costs and these guys actually made a profit of 1.6 billion pounds. that beat the estimates. when you look through these numbers there is no doubt about it. restructuring, revenue dropped by over a billion pounds at the corporate investment bank. foreign exchange. they settled with some of the main regulators in the united states of america. 643 million. they settled late in 2014.
if you remember. but they had to take more provisions. another 334 million pounds for foreign exchange. they say they are close to doing with a deal with the department of justice. foreign exchange still is a thorn in their side. the stock is down over 2%. when you look at the corporate investment bank, this is where they are scaling down. they made a loss. people are leaving. people are being let go. litigation in that area, a half a billion pounds. restructuring the investment bank. you have you v to ask yourself are these one-off costs. when it comes to doing business three times -- a jump of three times the amount of business they did there. corporate and vem banking. doing that a little bit better. you have one big, big one-off
items. litigation, that may not necessarily be a one-off cost. we know that litigation is set to rise across the u.k. banking sector. r.b.s. is now predominantly a domestic focus earning institution. 61% of its money comes from the united states kingdom. personal banking. you're seeing profits up by 10%. i think there is a lot of big banking drums. foreign exchange. payment protection. insurance another 100 million pounds for that. revamping costs. there are still huge issues for ross mcunion to deal with. -- mcewan to deal with. jon, the question is how much more restructuring costs are going to have to be taken across the r.b.s. platform. and you have got to say whether fx is nearly finished in terms
of the actual penalties that r.b.s. may need to take. although there is a pretty darn lit inches fever in the -- litigious fever in the united states. jonathan: such a busy manus cranny in this morning. thank you very much. air france and i.a.g. reporting results. i.a.g. posted a profit in the first quarter for the first time ever. for the first time ever? >> it is. you to remember the group itself is not actually that old like the airlines are. the group is not that old. a really strong showing from i.a.g. this is what is traditionally a very weak quarter. good numbers from them. british air ways returned to profit. they are showing real strengthen to north atlantic which has been the sort of plum spot for them. iberia, the restructuring there
is going well. overall they are showing signs of productivity, increases and getting more out of their staff. all of that is making the c.e.o. very happy. jonathan: talk to me about air france. the restructuring continues. where are we? >> just mentioning the success. that is not case at air france. the 2015 program has become the 2020 program. the numbers today, the loss did narrow, that was good, but talks continue with staff and there is still restructuring to do there. it will be interesting to see going forward whether they can manage to perform as well as a.i.g. did today. jonathan: thank you very much. a busy morning. greece wants absolutely no austerity and under no circumstances an exit from the
nation should reach a deal with creditors rather than a rupture. that is that comes in stark contrast to a bloomberg poll of investors where 52% believe greece will leave the euro. why optimism on one side and sudden pessimism on the other side? i was kind of surprised by that. hans: it could be a little bit lagging. it could be before because it was in mid april before vary factorice was taking a different role in the negotiationses. that could predate the idea that alexis tsipras is taking center stage in the negotiations. the idea that intense negotiations are going to start. you could have a preliminary agreement on sunday may 3. and then on may 11 you go ahead and vote for it but have it
ratified by all the finance ministers. one showing look for in the talks on this are both sides talking about the same kiverpb deal? it is very clear from the european side that they want a complete and total deal, a complete completion to have program. and from the greek side, we're still hearing a little bit about a partial deal. if one side is talking about a partial deal and the other side is talking about a full and complete deal, no deal. jonathan? jonathan: i want to bring up the varifakous stuff. everybody has jumped on the fact that at least the thought that that is maybe why wore close to a deal. can we just rip that up and say we're close to a deal because they haven't got much money left at all? hans: maybe. at least i don't have the sourcing well enough to see if there is any tension between the greek finance ministry and the prime minister's office. it would seem there is a little
bit of tension there. the situation is real. it is acute. some of the reporting is that before they thought weeks, maybe months, but weeks. now it is getting down to days. that puts you into next week. remember today 1.5 billion euros has to go out the door for pensions and pames. then in mid may as well. yes, some of this might be cash but we'll see. jonathan? jonathan: thank you. i'm going to take it to your world. germany, berlin. we get the employment numbers. dropoff of unemployment change of 8,000. not as good as many expected but the unemployment rate stays at a record low of 6.4%. that is some strength in that labor market hans. hans: 6.4%. that is what was expected. no movement there. the fact that the number came in lake-effect lower, people dropping off the rolls, that could be a little bit disappointing whsm when you
compare the german market to the spanish, italian, it is a much healthier labor market. they fundamentally changed the dynamic here. stick with the program. stick with austerity. balance your books. pay your debt. that's what you hear from angela merkel and her partners. jonathan? jonathan: it echoes around germany. thank you very much. 56 minutes into the session here in europe. let's bring you your market check. it had been a selloff in the first hour of trading in the equity market. the dax goes .5% lower. switch up the boards and bring up the euro. euro/dollar goes higher in that german unemployment number. it stays higher. after all of that weakness in the first three months in the year, we got higher again. the yield on a 10-year 0.34%.
guy: stocks slide. european equities trade lower and a host of earnings disappoint and fierce grow about the u.s. economy. francine: down day for banks. b.n.p. paribas also down while reporting a slight profit increase. r.b.s. posts a bigger than expect loss. guy: we speak to the holcim c.e.o. and that company's earnings and merger with lafarge. good morning, everybody. welcome. you're watching "the pulse" live from london.