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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  May 1, 2015 1:00am-3:01am EDT

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mark: chinese manufacturing suggests the economy is stabilizing after the governmenent stimulus measures. manus: approaching monsanto about 831 billion dollar takeover. a $31 billion takeover. mark: within his own party power to the people. manus: a $300,000 battery for home use.
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mark: welcome to "countdown." i'm mark barton. manus: and i'm manus cranny. mark: floyd mayweather and manny pacquiao -- the fight is excited to be the most lucrative in boxing history. with estimates of $400 million in revenue. manny: i love being the underdog. i have the determination to fight. i have something to prove in the fight. i love it. mark: a chinese manufacturing gauge is showing that growth may be starting to stabilize in the world's second-biggest economy.
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slightly higher than expected in april, according to our economists here at bloomberg. the pickup in manufacturing data comes after the government spurred infrastructure investment. sticking with asia, japan's key inflation gauge shows a small gain in march. after approaching zero in february. the data comes after the boj back the time needed to reach the 2% inflation target. the governor said the delay is attributed to falling oil prices. the continents are cloned for the mayday holiday. stay with bloomberg, we will be live with the tesla headquarters in los angeles, as the company unveils batteries for home and company. it could position them in a
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market worth billions of dollars. time for some mega information, the company is approaching a takeover. manus: i have, indeed. this is grading a beast within the corn and seed market around the world. just for context monsanto already has 30% of the market. it has 34% of the united states' corn market. you are looking at a company worth $80 billion. a market share of 40%, that is if a deal is offered by the regulators. what we think could come, a year ago the informal discussions were being had with syngenta. one year on, the value is down.
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could it be that monsanto wants to do it? a lower rate for corporate taxes it would be lower than it would have an united states. another couple of issues to consider would be this -- the antitrust hurdles. the magnitude of market share that the combined group would have in the united states of america, along with its global division, would mean we need to talk to the buyer about making divestments. that would be some significant hurdles. another issue coming from bloomberg intelligence monsanto issued quite a lot of debt last year. a lot of that debt was from a share buyback program. they have a room in their company that says they have to be careful about the amount of
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debt that we issue to our equity. that would mean that for monsanto to do a deal with would be a billion-dollar deal. monsanto would have to issue $27 billion worth of equity. when it comes to antitrust, just to give you flavor -- monsanto is no stranger to this. the department of justice investigated, they have all been dropped. to that end, do you take them base to go up again? would dow chemical be allowed? that is the question -- it is a $10 billion cheaper trade if they go for this deal. could it be a tax inversion? we wait to see a little bit more clarity around the deal as the day goes on. we get lots of analyst comment,
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whether it is good or bad. mark: with a week to go into the u.k. election the parties came together for a televised event. and wereed miliband said he would rather lose them do a deal with the scottish party. ed miliband: we are not going to have a coalition, not going to have a deal. let me say this to you. if it meant we weren't going to be in government, not doing a coalition, then so be it. i'm not going to sacrifice the future of our country, the unity of our country -- i am not going to give in to demands regarding the deficit or anything like that. i want to repeat this to you. i'm not going to have a labor government to be deals to the scottish national party. mark: nick clegg said he would
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not oppose a referendum for mentorship in the european union. nick clegg: we should have a referendum on whether we should stay in or leave the union. i will, by the way always argue that we remain part of the eu. mark: asked about plans for spending prime minister david cameron said he would not raise taxes. prime minister david cameron: i know what needs to be done. and i know we can finish the job without putting up people's taxes. those people who have opposed every step, every cut -- they will make a cut of their own. which is to put our taxes back in your pocket. if you want a government that finds more efficiency in government spending that
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reforms welfare, and doesn't put up taxes for working people -- that is me. if you want a government that goes on with unreformed welfare, and puts up taxes -- that is the other one. mark: we will bring you the green party leader natalie, later. manus: linkedin sold as much as 20% after the revenue was not met. the networking site also felt that other missed projections. it is the third time that linkedin has fallen short of expectations. shaking confidence in an historically stable stock. a criminal complaint over reports for the german secret services. did they help in spy? they demanded information on the
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german intelligence agency am a they were part of a gathering information regarding air buses and helicopters. more than quadrupled to $2.7 billion, trying to shake off its reputation. the sony cfo said quote "a a considerable risk with fluctuations." join us on twitter, we are up early and of late. we live in the fast lane here. it is @markbartontv and @manuscranny. mark: coming up, the greek prime minister tells his party of the deal that you might be softening to their demands?
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coming up, after the break. ♪
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mark: the greek prime minister told his cabinet that a deal for the bailout is not within the economic reforms. cyprus has stepped up talked to reach a preliminary deal ahead of sunday, ahead of a deadline
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later this month. here to discuss that is bloomberg's senior economist, christine scholz. we have had so many in recent months, the latest luminary deadline ahead of the finance ministers's meeting. should we shrug our shoulders and hope for the best? >> we should focus on the content of these discussions, what is needed. and then a secondary step, one thing from the history of the crisis that we know is, all of these deadlines kinship. they will make the decision one way or another. i think the deadline part is more focused on where do they actually stand in terms of negotiations? how close are they? in my opinion, they are still
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miles apart on pretty much everything -- except the fiscal part. where the greeks are saying they want some primary surplus. there are structures for labor reforms deregulation of various sectors of the economy, all of these things that we are nowhere near a deal at all. manus: with that level of granular detail that the imf referred to, is that achievable by sunday? shculchulz: no. before they get money from the eurozone, if they fill the projections we need actual laws voted by the greek parliament. voted by the independent greeks, which tackle very difficult
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topics for a populist coalition. such as no raise in the minimum wage, no tightening of collective bargaining roles -- such as. mark: there are red lines in the sand. pensions, as it sale -- to name butset sales -- just to name two. are we headed toward something the greek people do not want? >> i think the referendum on new election is a corollary one. the primary question is what does he actually want? does he want to take them out of the euro to implement election promises? or does he want to keep greece in the euro at any cost, if it means having a deal with the eurozone that crosses all of his red lines?
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is he prepared to fight that through in parliament? manus: it would be a social kick back against him. the populist greeks do not want to leave the euro. they can whiplash politically, this could be building up to a big social backlash against the man, should he trip out of the euro. or am i being negative? >> people show very consistently, the greeks do not want to leave. that is why he is saying, ultimately, the referendum is not to convince people of some deal or not, it is to convince his own parliament that what ever is agreed is what the greek populists should fight for in parliament. mark: meanwhile, something extraordinary might happen when
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it comes to economic growth. as we know, united states gdp on an annual basis is .2%. u.k. is .3% is it .4%? that is quite symbolic, isn't it? >> yes, for the first time since 2011, we do have a chance now that the eurozone could grow for a quarter more than his rivals. in belgium and in austria, those taken together were at .6%. countries like italy and france are not going to be at that level. but overall, it looks pretty good that the eurozone will be there. this is just one quarter. the united states and the united kingdom are going to bounce back. europe is going to have a good
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year. overall, the other two are going to -- mark: the euro has had his biggest monthly rally in two years. we're a two-month high. the euro is lifting itself up, and to an extent, that is what boosted growth. and oil is up by 25%, the euro is following along. the growth prediction might not hold. >> we are below the forecast. there is some room for disappointment. to still be right, the u.k. euro is one of the drivers. but there are others -- cheap oil. and maybe the stronger euro reinforces that cheap oil argument. we have these aggressive stances which beyond all of these things reinforces that
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any fallout from greece -- we need to keep that in mind. russia is not a big risk. and we have seen reforms, not just in the countries of spain and portugal -- the ones we talk about all the time. just this week, we had a positive vote there. there is a structure of progress. mark: we are going to ask you about the big figure of the week -- $160 billion. that is the amount of value between the region's bond market. what do you have to say about that? the senior economist? ♪
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manus: welcome back we have christian schulz: christian schulz: here. burns -- if you're looking for a big moving market, we have ratcheted from .1% to near .356 6%. what do you make of this move? or the evaluation of risk? christian schulz: alternately, if qe works -- and we have seen
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in the u.s. and the u.k. it raises growth expectations in the future. and there is a consequence -- long-term yields and the currency will rise, not fall. if qe is successful. japan is not happening. there is a sign that it is not working properly. it shows a bullish sign. investors are taking the idea that europe is successful in getting that growth. with these strategies paying off, and therefore yields are higher. i think that kind of caps the other side, for others. one of the other sides, people are wearin whether theyorrying if they fall below the deposit rate --
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that is good news for them. mark: we are less than a week away from the u.k. election. the question many are asking, is the u.k. going to leave the eu? and you are saying quite categorically no. but a referendum could well take place with conservatives with some sort of majority. christian schulz: indeed. last night's television debate the q&a showed that the most likely coalition party for the tories is not categorically for a referendum. it is a possibility at some stage. it will not be the referendum on the terms where it is an immediate outcome. but it will be a referendum after negotiations, potentially
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after some reforms -- but probably after some much better recovery in the euro zone. which should boost the popularity of the eu. british people do not want to leave the eu anyway. which makes it likely that whatever the referendum is, the most important news is conservatives are likely to win the coalition to govern. there might be a referendum, and that is good news. manus: i have gone through my mind over the last few days how could the bank of england -- say we have this new coalition as you suggested. that would be a very bullish scenario. could the bank of england raise rates in a less politically stable environment, then the
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shape you paint at the moment? the polls are 100% against the scenario you just painted. christian schulz: any bank has to live with the jurisdiction that lives with -- be it economics or politics. it has targets, which keeps inflation at 2%. the various governments that are potentially available for the election outcomes there is a left-wing government -- one of the outcomes might be more debt higher inflation expectations. and that may mean the rate of england may have to raise rate -- the bank of england may have to raise rates earlier. that would give them more time. the bank of england would have to take whatever comes from westminster. make up its mind.
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manus: mark and i are just being mutually optimistic. thank you so much for being with us this morning. mark: coming up, we go to san francisco for tesla's latest product launch. ♪
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minutes: welcome back to "countdown." the dollar is rising, would ever get back to above $1.20? 2/10 of 1% is the target, the target is 2%. we know that they are procrastinating making the market worry that the bank of japan is going to deactivate.
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and that may slow the trajectory of arising dollar and a declining yen. core inflation came in, we know that the governor has delayed the 2% target of inflation. and the big concern is that healing will take longer to come in. in the fourth quarter, they have a new target -- they are calling dollar yen at $1.25. that is down from 128 that shades their overall view from that. keep an eye on the euro declining, the dollar rising. keep an i on the dollar, it is flat lining as far as asia is concerned. bond markets have had the biggest year since 1993 142 billion euros have been wiped
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off the government bond market. still, the euro manages to get itself right up there in terms of the week. what a stellar performance, up over 3%. that is the best performance in four years. bond yields are rising, they are declining -- that is a favorite bloomberg word. prices are declining, yields are rising, greeks are saying they may have a deal -- april and mary deal by sunday. and money may have a deal by sunday. where are those callers for $.90 $.87 $.85? mark: the top stories on
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bloomberg at this hour, slightly higher than expected, according to economists. bloomberg. the expansion of the chinese economy suggest that the country may be starting to stabilize after monetary policies were eased. the boj key inflation gauge touched zero in february rising 2.2% in march. from a year earlier. in 2015 they kicked off with over 20 million visitors -- w hich benefits the whole country. >> malan and italyilan and italy have hidden jewels. should the tourists arrive since we have already sold 10
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million tickets, it is clear that those tourists will not come to justmilan -- that will spread all over the country which will surely help italy to overcome this difficult moment. mark: elon musk is broadening the country to include the missing link. bloomberg's dana howell is live in los angeles. powered entirely by these batteries, why get intonvolved with batteries? dana: this is the battery they use in their electric cars. they are moving beyond cars to batteries for the home and businesses and the utility grid. mark: how much is it going to
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cost us to buy one of these batteries? if you want the home one? dana: the real vision is that you will have solar panels on your roof, and a tesla battery in your garage. it is a wall connected unit, it comes in different colors to match the car. a small one is about $3500. mark: the battery is a little bigger for utilities. give us an idea of the scale. dana: there is not just one battery, their proposition is you can stack as many as you need. utilities like edison and pacific gas and electric that want to have pilot projects can basically order as many as they need. tesla can package them in a skid depending on the utilities needed. it is a variable solution
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depending on the customer's need. mark: is there a demand, all are their customre customers already? dana: the sun does not shine all the time, it is not always windy. we have incredible renewable energy resources. tesla is coming in and adding a big consumer-facing brand technology that is righpe for expansion. they're looking to the challenge of renewable resources into the grid. mark: what did you ask elon today, dana? dana: i asked him two.
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i asked if he was bidding on the battery suppliers for pilot projects in utilities directly. i also asked if there was a chance that tesla would drop motors from the name. he did not totally answer that question, but he did reveal that they have registered tesla manus: japan's key inflation gauge showed a small increase. for more, let's get back to james in tokyo. i suppose, 2/10 of 1% -- we should be grateful? james: is definitely an improvement from last month, when it was zero. this is now two degrees and a
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bit since the governor came out and said, in two years time japan will have zero inflation. now, it is basically 1/10 of that. it is an improvement since last month. it is not where the bank wanted to be or where the government wanted to be. yesterday he said the main reason why inflation is not where it should be is because of falling oil prices. that is something that the bank could not have predicted, it could not have been avoided. at the same time it makes it very difficult for them to say that their policy is being successful. the statistics reporting the other way. manus: where exactly does he see inflation? he delayed the target, i've been reading a lot of various comments this morning, the big risk is that they become reactive rather than proactive.
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when you make of that statement james question? james: two years would have been last month. they changed that slightly to say it is going to happen sometime in the fiscal year. and now they have said that it is going to happen sometime in the first six months from april. they have gradually pushed back the target. at the same time kuroda said he does not see any time for the bank of japan to go the way it should go. they're going to pick up and return this year. he doesn't see the nameneed for waiting. the people we surveyed the bank is very adamant that they think
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they're on track and things are going well. people in the market just do not accept that. will the bank be forced will the market be forced to go forward? i think we have to wait. manus: james, let's see how active they become. thank you. mark: as the u.k. counts down to one the most divided elections in modern history, the safe seat is turning into a political battleground. here is a digital beenspin dr. trying to get your vote. ??>> it looks likea a digital spin
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doctor. they are at the forefront of a political revolution. using social media to get votes and cash. >> people want to get their message out. they want to mobilize a force knock on doors, and raise money to fund all of that. same jefferes is the u.k. born and harvard educated. sam: we are working on the mobilization. >> they have rebranded the party, streamlined the donation process and personalized medication. the result is more money. sam we: we have 200000 members. and we reached a lot of people in the selection. tens of thousands more have given smaller mouse. >> in fact, the labour party
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raised 400-7000,000 pounds. this is a shift in the party which has been outfunded the far right. with cash in hand, the state used social media, e-mails, and twitter to hammer home details. with all of this information swirling around the internet the choice in this election is really clear -- some of it authentic, some of it political propaganda. it is hard to make sense of what is happening, let alone what is important. but the u.k. company, born out of oxford universities computer science department is trying to do just that. >> the volume is just a fraction. david>> david morgan tries to
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make sense of the digital cacophony. working out whether comments are positive or negative. david: the machine is looking at language, actually taking the individual parts and reconstructing them as a human would. >> this software, called mood breaker let's political parties monitor the sentiment on the internet of certain issues. dav>> you can start to drive to what is important to people. and that has never been able to be done before. the rise of social media and the ability to monitor it. > under the tory government, things have gotten worse.
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>> 2 million new packages. apprenticeships. mark: coming up, it is being billed as the biggest fight in history. floyd mayweather and manny pacquiao. the man who has managed some of the biggest boxers over the past three decades. esthermr. frank warren -- stay tuned. ♪
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mark: today's business and sports section was a no-brainer. mayweather versus t manny pacquiao, i talked to frank warren who has promoted some of the biggest fights over the last 30 years. frank: i think it is the biggest fight since the rumble in the jungle the alio and foreman bout. technology has moved on, and we will benefit from that. mark: talk about the money. who is making the money? how much will the gross? frank: i think it will growth
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between $450 million and even higher? manny pacquiao has 40%, mayweather is guaranteed $100 million matter what happens. i'm sure he will add a few million to that. mark: will there be a rematch? is it in their interest to keep it close? frank: who knows what happens in boxing? if it is a close fight, if it is a controversial fight, and of course there will be a rematch. if floyd mayweather or one of them gets knocked out in the first or second round -- it depends what the first fight is. because the referees the so-called early stoppage -- the
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controversial stoppage, a computer. but second fight is boring. with mayweather a couple of those -- he only for a couple of times a year. american football issues, soccer issues, they are playing weeken and week in and out. it is pay per view, the most profitable form of television. he doesn't have any endorsements. he gets his income from people who actually want to see him. it is honest television, it is not something just out there. that tells you he has a huge appeal, not just to the boxing public, but the crossover into
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the public domain. and they want to see him. mark: and you want to show this fight, on your boxing channel which is been up and running for four years. frank: i think we were very close. the decision took the promoters much longer to decide. we put our offer in and they wanted to increase the offer. in some ways, i am. it shows that we are serious players in our sport. it is a huge tv company, 10 millions of drivers. we are a unique business, we always do once for -- which is e sport -- which is boxing. the new century, you know, we
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are here. we have a business. mark: it would be a great promotional pool for you, to have gotten a fight. how many would have watched it? maybe you have paid a bit more? franjkk: i think i would've done that. at the end of the day, we have to be sensible. they were sensible. i suppose that the entrepreneur or in me -- frank: to live up the business model. 12 quid a month. frank: no long-term contracts pay for what you want. is a profitable? mark: is it profitable? frank: we have a customer base of nearly a half-million
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who dip in and out. mark: how many constantly pay the 12 quid a month? how maybe you have to pull in? frank: we were basing that level on 800,000. mark: what do you say to those people who criticize you. and there are some, your competition, who say you should have these fights on a channel that everyone has. frank: floyd mayweather would be not stuck on the forbes list if you was not deriving income that people want to pay for. the reason that you don't see live football on the bbc, it is now moved to satellite, they cannot afford it. they could afford it -- it would
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break the bank. the same thing with horseracing and tennis they do not show all those sports that used to be heritage events. a lot of them have moved across to the satellite. and they do that because the guys, the content owners and the participants want to be paid for what they're doing. being a boxer is a short career. a goalie can play on the senior tour until they are 70. even though manny pacquiao is a phenomenally athlete, he is coming to the end of it. they normally get to their early 30's -- mark: who is going to win? frank: i think mayweather is
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going to win. they have both seen better days. mark: if it happened six years ago? frank: they would be making the same money. i want to see how they do it suddenly they have captured the sporting world's imagination in a big way. in the states, their talk about 3 million buys at $100 a pop -- it is probably more than that. is huge. they haven't even put the tickets on sale. it is a $70 million game. for event that is going to an event that is going to take an hour. mark: give us an idea of what it takes to put on a fight like this. frank: you're going to need the two guys -- the fighters the
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people want to see. they have to have that appeal you have to find a venue, so that you can find the right day to put it on. in the united states, make sure it is a public holiday --for for boxing. in the united states, they have the volume in the population. some of the big fights, like brunea and mikeo and mike tyson we did with don king --it is not just the boxing public, it is a sporting public. you have to take the fight off the back pages and get into the news. manus: great interview by mark on the sporting event of the year. let's get to the top stories.
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up 20% after the coming deliver revenues, the professional networking website linked in. din. it is the first time that linkedin has fallen short of analysts'expectations. airbus has filed a criminal complaint that germany helped the u.s. spy on them. the company also demanded clarification over whether the german intelligence agency was part of an information gathering operation. the sony office will more than quadruple to $2.7 billion. that is 20% less than was projected. they're trying to shake off their disappointment to investors.
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it is a considerable risk from fx fluctuation. mark: "countdown" continues, stay with us. we are the top of the hour here in london. ♪
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mark: chinese manufacturing to just the economy is stabilizing. manus: monsanto is said to approach another company about a $31 billion takeover. mark: he says he is confident about the bailout, but faces obstacles from the eu and within his own party. manus: tesla unveils its battery for homes, businesses, and utilities.
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mark: welcome back to "countdown." fight night. the fight in las vegas is expected to be the most in boxing history with estimates of up to $409 in revenue. manny pacquiao -- $400 million in revenue. manny pacquiao said he was not afraid to be the underdog. >> i like that. it gives me more determination. encouragement to prove something. i love it. manus: let's talk about another dog fight in the market. lloyds first quarter profit
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rises 21%. eight feet analysts -- it to beat analysts estimates. devasting itself. there is a charge a little higher than some of the analysts in the marketplace estimated. some estimated it would be around 640 pounds. 640 million pounds, i should say. 2.65%. they say that will rise above 2.5% for the rest of the year. 47.7%. let's see here, the other key headline. charges are down 59%. 177.
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underlying profit before taxes 2 billion pounds. that comes in at 2 billion pounds. leverage ratio, that is the other benchmark. the ratio in the first quarter was 5%. lloyds traditionally has a good first quarter. for the past five years, it has delivered a profit in the first quarter. it does not necessarily pan out that way for the rest of the year. the cost to income ratio will be lower. they are saying that they expect other income to be broadly stable in 2015. i have not seen the number as of yet on lloyds, if there is an additional provision for pti. will come back for that in the
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program. mark: chinese manufacturing may start to stabilize. pmi came in at 50.1, slightly higher than expected by our survey of economists at bloomberg. it comes after the government spurred infrastructure investment in the monetary policy. japan's key inflation guage show in small gain. after the bank of japan refrain from adding to monetary stimulus. governor kuroda said the delay is due to falling oil prices. it in europe, markets are closed for the mayday holiday. the u.k. and ireland are open. let's talk euro star. manus: i have had a couple of trips on it.
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a very nice. they are launching a direct service to france. the new router will stop at leon and marseille. that means people can get on a train in london and be in sunnier climes in the mediterranean. the euro star ceo nicholas. great to have you with us this morning. i have used the service recently on a number of occasions. it really is quite a great experience. you are bringing along 10 million passengers. who is going to book and how are the bookings looking for this route? nicholas: we are -- we have
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45,000 segments. we are pleased. as you said later at lunchtime we will be by the sea. manus: give us a sense of what kind of service you are going to get. you have gourmet menus. chefs designing for you. give us a sense of what is available. nicolas: the idea behind euro star is traveling should be a pleasure. the moment you step on the train, it is the start of your holiday. our chef has designed special menus. we want people to enjoy the trip. we will have specialties from the south of france and also special wines from there. it has to be a special
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experience for customers. we are talking to the first passengers a onboard and they are excited. manus: give me a sense how you are going to split the service between first class, business, and economy. give me a sense of where your weighting is across the train. nicolas: we have a couple of classes. one is competing with local lines. 89 pounds, all included. great comfort. we take care of you well. first class, which is -- you have service. that is roughly 25% of the capacity of the train.
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all passengers will have a fantastic experience on both. bookings have been very healthy so far. we are very encouraged. manus: give me a broader picture. you are testing some trains. give me a sense of when they will enter the service. the end of the year? what you use them on the amsterdam route? nicolas: it is an important time for euro star. we are investing a lot of money. the fleet will start to interservice at the end of the year, which means that from the end of the year, we will have wi-fi on board. infotainment. we will introduce them into service next year. for the next 18 months, the
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whole fleet will be entirely new. from 2017 on word, we will go from london to amsterdam. quite an exciting time. we are reinventing ourselves. manus: in terms of your propensity to invest in the u.k., any intentions on bidding for a domestic franchise? nicolas: not at the moment. we are focused on our routes to the south of france. amsterdam with the new fleet. a lot going on at the moment. manus: you are a french man. the election is less than seven days to run in this country. how do you think french people
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perceive our discussions here in the networking them about -- in the united kingdom about potentially exiting europe? nicolas: it is starting to gain a little bit more awareness in france. it is a domestic issue in the u.k. for french people, it would be unthinkable that the u.k. would leave the eu. of course we cannot control that. everybody is looking at it with interest. there is a sense in general, it is better to be inside the eu than outside. it is for u.k. voters to decide.
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manus: ceo of euro star. we wish you well and i look forward to making the journey to marseille. mark: japan's inflation gain showed a small increase. let's go to james in tokyo. what is pushing the figure up? james: the push that was push -- the thing that was pushing it down is now pushing it up. oil prices dragged it down. the rebound, we are seeing a slight pickup. also the weak yen. it has stabilized but is weak compared to where it was last year. overseas trips, luxury goods, have all gone up in local currency terms. those are pushing up prices if only very slightly. mark: where does the boj
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governor c inflation and boj policy from this point? james: two years since kuroda came in with his policy of 2% in two years. now they are at 0% in two years. they came out and said, it is not going to happen until april or later. kuroda said yesterday repeatedly prices are on track for the boj target. they don't see any reason to add further easing. the boj came out with three separate reports saying the policy is working. it is pushing up the inflation rates. it had the effect of stimulating the economy. overall, things are pretty rosy and they do not see the need to change policy at this time. mark: james, thanks for joining us.
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manus: with less than a week to go until the u.k. election, the three main parties came together for their final television event. ed miliband said he would rather lose out on becoming prime minister then do a deal with the scottish national party. ed miliband: we are not going to have a coalition, a deal. if it meant we were not going to be in government, not doing a coalition, then so be it. i'm not going to sacrifice the future of our country, the unity of our country, i am not going to get into demands around trident or anything like that. i want to repeat this point to you. i'm not going to have a labor government if it means deals with the scottish national coalition.
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manus: nick said he would not necessarily oppose a referendum. nick: we should have a referendum about whether we should state in. -- stay in. i will always argue we should remain part. manus: prime minister david cameron pledged not to raise taxes. per mr. cameron: my fear is this. those people who have opposed every stick we have taken, every cut, i think they will make a cut of their own which is to put up taxes to reach into your pay packet and cut your pay. i don't want to do that. if you when i government that finds more efficiencies it in government spending and goes on reforming welfare that is me.
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if you want a government that goes on with unreformed welfare and puts up texas, that is the other government. -- put up taxes that is the other government. mark: linked in hell as much as -- linkedin fell as much as 27%. the website also forecast sales that missed projections for the second quarter. it is the second time they have fallen short of analyst expectations. a criminal complaint was filed over charges that german secret services helped the airplaline spied.
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when sony says operation -- 20% less than analysts projected. the cfo says the forecast takes into account a quote considerable risk from fx fluctuations. you can find more of the story from and join the conversation on twitter. i have tweeted out part of manus's interview with the euro star executive. it would be unthinkable, he said, for the u.k. to leave the eu. manus: they all deflect. it is interesting he said it.
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mark: 89 quit. -- quid. manus: i have never managed to get an 89 pound ticket on the euro star. but they do have good deals. stay with us. we will be back in two minutes. ♪
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manus: linked in shares slumped after missing analyst estimates. there are a variety of reasons. it is about the guidance the dollar. what did you focus on? >> there are two reasons the company had a disappointing performance. it is making less money than people thought and will make less in the future. it missed on sales estimates from analyst.
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it missed on the projection for the second quarter and revised its forecast. for the entire year career that was enough to remove -- for the entire year. manus: where does the dollar strength fit into this? >> much of their revenue is from outside the u.s.. the dollar, if you look at our dollar index, falling over 6.2%. analysts would have been seeing that, that is easy to calculate. i think this is a very straightforward story of missing expectations. first quarter, the estimate from analysts as they would make $637 million. they made 637 million and
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700,000, missing by 100,000. manus: the founder's wi whe -- 12th went down by $1 billion. ryan: this is another case of a social media company where there are heady expectations. yesterday, they just slightly missed terms of the expectations or were and that was not good enough. manus: apple has had its worst three days. linkedin getting smashed. ryan: and twitter and yelp. manus: is it a reality check in the space? ryan: this is the third social media company in a week to lose
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a quarter of its value. manus: that is huge. ryan: that is massive. in one day, for that to happen so quickly. it comes down to expectations. you look at the businesses that linkedin relies on. these are not aging businesses. the premium service, people like recruiters up 36%. they have a new business called marketing projects which is code for publishing. nonetheless, they are getting into online education. it is not as if this is a company that does not have any trouble monetizing. it just had trouble meeting expectations. manus: should we ask our next guest it includes the likes of
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apple. when you see such declines, do flashing lights go on? or are there declines for a reason? >> i'm not the right person to ask. i have hated this whole sector. i missed out on origins. -- fortunes. these are bubbles. momentum stocks. when momentum falters, even as you said, ryan, the growth was there but not at the exalted numbers the market has hyped it into. this is what, $20 billion ? ryan: $31 billion. stephen: a lot of money. mark: is your reasoning
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different? stephen: in certain stages in the economic cycle, growth stocks do better. when growth is accelerating, it is obvious that strategies based on growth to exceed those that are not. i don't think we are at that stage in the economy. we are at a stage of the economy that is slowing down. some people talk about skirt lengths. manus: this is quite a night when stephen isaacs decided to talk about skirt lengths. ryan: if you look at share price growth, since the inception of linked in, the closing price on their first day, it rose to fold. -- two fold. they have done triple.
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where is the money now to be made in the next four years? stephen: it will be a tough year anyway. we do see much more muted growth than the market had expected. the gdp figures in the u.s. support that. people like bill gross, you are going to look at your portfolio and struggle to see where you made money. but if you are picking areas, value investing, you are less dependent on momentum. you are waiting for the inherited value of the stock to be discovered or rediscovered career that is a safer strategy and a slower growth world. we like to pick out one or two themes. japan, interesting news. the boj not doing anything too exciting but sticking generally to the course. manus: i was doing dollar yen.
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the view is it will turn into a reactive force rather than a proactive, quite safe -- quantitative easing aggressive bank. stephen: they understand external forces can compound the best intentions. huge slowdown in inflation, or arguably deflation. the bank of japan is not immune. reading between the lines, what they are doing is not panicking. they are not reaching for another level. the sweeting band -- the bank of sweden is almost panicking. every time there is another meeting, they are doing something, flailing their arms. i think the japanese have a plan of sticking to it. we think there is value in some
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of the ketchup strategies in japan. this is not owning toyota, which is a currency play. mark: we will be back in a second. ♪
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manus: welcome back to "countdown to your." 7:30 this morning. the target for inflation is 2%. that will be delayed. this is dollar down, -- sorry, dollar rising, yen falling. the bank of japan governor says the 2% target is off. we were having a conversation
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where they are saying there is value in the mid-tear in japan. the question is whether -- more easing on the way according to hsbc. they say dollar yen will make it to 125. that is trimming it back from their original view of 128. mrs. euro-dollar this morning 112. -- this is it euro-dollar this morning, 112. the week's trajectory. on a week when the bond market saw the biggest selloff since 1993, take a look at the market. those calling -- recalling zero and negative rates, where are they now? is this a buying opportunity for you on the boone markend market?
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the euro is up 3% in the week. as yields spike and the value of the bond markets fall, this is the best rally you have seen in 4.5 years. mr. citrus -- greece may do a deal. optimism abounds. the question you have to ask is this your selling opportunity? your chance to retest the opportunity? if you think about where we are going back to the start of march, whether there is a conundrum at play. a bond market wipeout. a bit of a story to be told. quantitative easing that is why the currency is rising. go to catch that interview.
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mark, back to you. mark: china's pmi came in and 50 .1 in april. slightly higher than expected. the expansion suggested growth may be starting to stabilize after the government -- sticking with asia, the key inflation gauge saw a small gain after touching zero in february. there were also gains in march of 2.2%. stephen isaacs, glad to have you back. we have had something we have not heard a lot of. he thinks the current coalition will prevail. there will be another sort of deal between the conservative party. you are not of that persuasion.
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stephen: i think the polls are right. there is a fallacy believing there is a hidden tory constituency that will swing it all a 1992. pulling these days is more sophisticatied. they take into account some voters being more upfront about references than others. he has come over here and put a prediction. he says he thinks tories will get to 80. labour, 270. i believe. i think that is a correct assessment. it is too late now for great changes. we had question time last night
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which i don't think with that exciting. and then we are down to the mac is valley and -- machiavelli busines of politics. ed miliband. cameron will have the largest party, probably. he is prime minister so he will have the first option to form a government. can he generally -- for me coalition with the liberal democrats? i think it is impossible. the 1922 committee has said insisted that they must vote on a coalition document. the liberal democrat themselves there is already a sort of ships were -- storm about what happens to the party. nick clague said he took the
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right decision for the country and respected political consequences. the liberal dems are going to be decimated. i don't think they can put it together. we talking about a minority government, they will not get a majority. a go. the threat will be that the other parties vote down either a budget speech or have a no-confidence measure. we may have a few weeks where this process takes place. we get to the end of the process. the queen or heard visors will give gillibrand -- the queen or heard pfizer's will give miliband a chance to form a government. there is no upside for him. manus: where would that lead him?
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stephen: effectively bluffing. these are your policies. you said you were elected on the basis of her feeding downing -- moving cameron out of downing street. are you really going to stop me from getting there? our policies are slightly different than cameron. if the s&p has 50 seats, my with a want another election? that is the only alternative. if they do not support element -- ed miliband there would have to be a second election. what is the upside? labour would be able to go in and say, we gave them a chance. the smp would not let them form a government. i think it is a game of chicken. no bond -- ed miliband is good
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at this. he will end up with a minority government which will be difficult. but then deals individually on legislation can take place. manus: tie that briefly to sterling and the markets. stephen: i don't think it makes a lot of difference. you saw when the french president became president. people read too much into the immediate effect on currencies. everybody knows there is going to be a hung parliament. i don't see a great difference. mark: steven isaacson, chairman of the investment committee. billionaire warren buffett has lost a little more of his wealth then his wealth career that is according to the bloomberg billion are index. just in time for his holding company. let's bring in the billionaires reporter, let's talk about this.
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why is he having such a bad year? reporter: berkshire is not having a great year. they are down 5% career that means his wealth is down. it translates to a big number. mark: put that in context for us. devon: that's the worst of the 200 billionaires we track. he is down $3.5 billion. that sounds like a huge number but keep in mind his total net worth is over $70 billion. he is down 5% that is not bad at all. that is kind of rough, but compare that to the richest 10 in ukraine, down over 25%. manus: tomorrow will be -- we
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get images. mark: drinking coca-cola. manus: will it be as joyful as normal? devon: they have a special celebration. he is celebrated his 50th year as the head of berkshire hathaway. extra coke, coke for everybody. record turnout. 44,000 people. the second biggest event in omaha, nebraska of the year. the college woodstock for capitalists. mark: is he going to close the gap with bill gates? wide. devon: microsoft has seen good growth in the past couple of years and bill gates has diversified well. he has written -- rode the
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u.s. equities boom. manus: thank you very much. let's see with the weekend holds in omaha. mark: coming up, the bart chart. volatility plummeted in april. manus: up over 20%. can't wait. mark: biggest plunge ever. ♪
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mark: time for today's part chart. oil motility plummeted in april. this is the chicago board options exchange. crude oil volatility index. a big name. what it does is it measures the market expectations of 30 day
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price expectations. april saw the biggest monthly drop ever with a decline of 32 .5%. it fell to 36.28, the lowest since october last year. the level it last reached, when crude was trading at $66 a barrel. since reaching this year passed p -- this year's peak, oil volatility has slumped by 43%, showing traders are confident prices will stay at current levels. at the same time thomas regulators are abandoning hedges. they are convinced the commodity will not be revisiting the six
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low from last march. since march the 17th, the red circle, crude oil has jumped by 37%. helped by declining rig counts and a drop in the u.s. dollar. which is 4.5% below the highs in mid-march. the number of drilling rigs targeting oil slid 2703 last week. that is according to data -- in response krucrude production has declined. the saudi arabian military campaign in yemen has raise concern to mideast supplies may be disrupted, further limiting supplies. do keep your eye on the chart. it is fascinating.
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yes, it has a long name. what makes the upcoming boxing match between floyd mayweather and many pack we'll -- many pack rihannny pacquiao such a big deal? >> it is not just one of the biggest, it is also the richest. it is expected to shatter records. it is the most expensive on pay-per-view ever. estimates for how many people will watch range from 2.5 million to 4 million. it will be held at the mgm grand in las vegas which seats many people. face value tickets range as high as $10,000.
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the $10,000 seats were not sold publicly. the gate value is set to reach $72 million. that is 3.5 times more than the current record. 20 million dollars, set by the fight in 2013. fewer than 1000 tickets were sold to the public at face value. they sold out in 60 seconds. the resale market will likely be extremely lucrative. when you factor in other revenue streams like foreign broadcast sales sponsorships and merchandise, the fight is expected to bring in at least $300 million. that would make it the most profitable match ever. while it is not clear who will win, both fighters are sent to pocket millions.
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mayweather is expected to make $180 million. with manny walking away with $120 million. with money like that, everybody walks away a winner. mark: let's get more from the fight of the century. the tickets -- the figures are staggering. reporter: once every 10 years we get some thing that people talk about over breakfast. this is one of those. this could gross about $500 million around the world, when you talk about people in the seats. pay-per-view. gambling, hotels, everything. a lot of money. manus: you had a chat with frank warn about how much they would walk away with. how much could they walk away with. not who will win.
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reporter: you are talking more than $100 million for each of them. mayweather being the champion and the undefeated top dog he will walk away with more. right now, vegas is crazy. you cannot get in. mgm has all the hotel pay-per-view. if you want to go coming have to go to mgm. you can do it in any other hotel. you can watch it in your hotel. mark: some of the secondary market prices? reporter: you are talking $4000 for a nosebleed seat. all the good seats are gone. guys like us. manus: the las vegas mayor cannot get a seat. it is a sellout. we did some of the numbers.
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the revenue streams, the big blockbuster streams where does the money go in these scenarios? reporter: most of it is pay-per-view. i don't know if you know manny pacquiao's history in the philippines, he is madonna ali clinton. people there are mad about him. mayweather is the biggest fighter in the u.s.. people are saying these guys are mid 30's. a bit fast it. if they had fought five years ago -- mark: mayweather is called money for a reason. reporter: that is why it has taken so long to get them in the same ring.
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they have been able to create massive careers. mayweather, his earnings are more than 400 million. manny has more than 300 million dollars. this has been building to this point, these two guys getting in the ring. we don't have ali or foreman. these are the guys people want to see. mark: is it in their interest to have a rematch? reporter: if it is a good fight you will see people saying, i think we should do this again. manus: who is going to win? reporter: i want to say mayweather. he is going to weather storms but when in the end. mark: he is two behind rocky marciano's undefeated streak.
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reporter: he is 38. boxers, when you see what happened to some of the boxes that have been around and overwork themselves, you want to be able to spend that money. boxing is a sport that takes a lot out of you. mark: he said his kids will get $50 million each. eight good day at the office. good to see you. couple of minutes away from the stock market open. remember, it is a quiet day today. for the non-u.k. markets. because of made a. -- may day. let's go over to a market strategist. what were your thoughts, alastair? looks like the ceo -- the efforts to return the bank to private ownership are bearing
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fruit? alastair: it does look that way. still down from 1.4 billion pretax profits we saw last year. they have had 660 million pretax. if we strip that outcome a we see lloyd's profits were probably up 21%. pretty impressive. as far as the investment community is concerned as well come of fact that we are seeing the dividend reappear makes it increasingly attractive to institutional investors. by the end of 2016, that will edge up to -- that will make it attractive. mark: talk about the election. you have been looking closely at the election. we have had to bang guests on. one says it will be tories and lib dems. the other says a labor minority
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government. what are you betting on? alastair: we have been running political records. we have a good track record of predicting them. mayoral elections. u.s. elections. the most likely outcome is a labour minority government. a second general election, coming in at the 6.5%. the tories are going to get more seats than the labour party. when you consider the poll yesterday in scotland, 59 seats. they are probably going to wrap up 49-50 seats rather than a full 59.
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mark: some are looking at nick clegg. where might this shock happen when it comes to individual constituencies? alastair: i suspect mr. kennedy in the north of scotland is going to lose his seat, which was one of the lib dem seats. they are all going to come in and retain their seats. maybe nick clegg is more edgy then some as far as his seating is concerned. in reality, the odds are stacked in their favor. mark: cheers have a good weekend. thank you for joining us. manus: it will be interesting. very us options on the combinations of potential government. let's trying to get that -- mark: the scenarios.
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manus: did you take notes? "on the move" is next. and ireland, we do not celebrate mayday in ireland. "on the move" is next. ♪
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jonathan: good morning. welcome to "on the move. moments away from the open of two european markets. what a week. as we get the day started, get the week wrapped up, let's get to your morning brief. japan lowflation. small gains in march. core inflation came in at just 0.2%. lloyd's profit surges. profit at britain's biggest mortgage lender beat expectations. bolstering the government's efforts to return the bank to full private ownership. linkedin plunges.
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the professional networking website plunges. the stock drops as much as 27%. they are a few of the things we will be talking about. i'm looking at one futures market, ftse futures. very excited. manus cranny looking forward to wrapping up his week with your market open. manus: indeed. everything is closed except for london. the paper company introduced their numbers to the markets. see how they do in the irish market a little later on. i'm trying to be ironic. let's see if lloyd's makes the rundown. first-quarter profit up 21%. 2.2 billion pounds. benchmarks are judging how banks are going to do in the u.k. and around europe. they say


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