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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  May 26, 2015 1:00am-3:01am EDT

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anna: greece returns to rescue talks after varuofakis blames creditors for standoffs. he says the country cannot endure more austerity. mark: chinese stocks in hong kong head towards a seven-year high after widening access to markets in the world's second-biggest economy. manus: charter communications is said to be near an agreement to buy time warner cable for 55 billion dollars. we bring you the details. anna: and ryanair reports full-year earnings. we take a look at whether europe's against budget airlines can expand its low-cost customer base. ♪
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mark: hello and welcome to "countdown." manus: also coming up on "countdown" today, as the first person faces trial for alleged libor rate-reading, we take a look at how the billions of dollars collected are being spent. it is probably something you would not expect. that story later in the show. mark: shall we bring the numbers from ryanair? full-year earnings jumping. profit after tax gaining 66%. 867 million euros. that is 247 million euros higher than the top end of predictions made the previous year.
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fiscal 2016, the airline is predicting profit of 940 million to 970 million euros. the company is ramping up winter capacity and seeking to the were a new generation of passengers with a softer approach. it raised its guidance to 2015 earnings five times. it is targeting major european airports and looking to tempt passengers away from network airlines like lufthansa air france, klm group. joining us is carry longer. >> the big driver of this was the number of passengers, the increase in passengers. an 11% increase in passengers, just over 90 million. they are getting the airplane 88% fall from 83%. more people on the plane. over the winter period they
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traditionally kept their planes on the ground to this year, they say, ok, we are going to put everything in the air. they actually saw fares rise 1%. they were not having to completely slash fares. caroline: it is arguable that they have been a bit too conservative this year. they keep raising their profit guidance. give us a sense of what we are expecting in 2016. kari: raising your guidance five times is a little extreme. the guidance will definitely be what the market is focusing on this morning. they are always very cautious giving this first guidance of the year. this is very early in their fiscal year. remember, their fiscal year starts in april. it is still very early. having said that, they are feeling pretty confident as far as bookings. we will have to see how they are
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always getting better plans how this revamp of their image settles in and whether that continues to pay off for them. manus: year 3 of that rebranding, being warmer towards the customer. they are getting more business customers. where are we in the strategy? what more can they do in terms of communicating the message? kari: i think primary airports will be a key thing for this year. they got rid of some of the annoying things like the second bag the allocated seating. they put in place some of the obvious things that drive people nuts. this year, it will be the primary airports, focused on getting some of those business passengers that easyjet has been so successful with. the other thing that easyjet and ryanair are doing is looking at their digital strategy and trying to be quick on their feet trying to think more like a retailer like aldi.
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it will be interesting to see how successful they are. mark: thank you for joining us. stay with us. we will be joined by ryanair cfo. do not miss it. caroline: let's switch gears a little bit. greek officials revived their bid for financial aid today. a spokesman said a deal can be reached by the end of may. disagreement still remains. let's get over to hans nichols in berlin for the latest. what is the dealbreaker here? what seems to be stopping an agreement from being brokered ahead of the end of may? hans: good morning, caroline. from the greek side, there is one dealbreaker and that is austerity. that is the latest from jan is varoufakis. he said the creditors are subtle and steadfast and the deadline is coming up. yet they are remaining firm that there -- no further austerity
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will be imposed. here is an important quote from varoufakis. if there is potential daylight between varoufakis and his prime minister, then you can see a way out of it. he said, "our government cannot and will not accept the cure that has proven itself to be worse than the disease." the athens exchange was down some 30.1% yesterday. here in germany, you are hearing an emergency consensus. wolfgang schauble talked about how the blame was squarely with the greeks. if greece wants to compromise if citrus -- tsipras wants to cut a deal, it is up to the greeks. the germans do not want to go any further. varoufakis seemed to be blaming greece -- germans for their overly-generous pension system. it does not look like there will
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be any give him the imf will either. caroline: clearly, varoufakis is talking tough it what about tsi pras? does he have the mandate to get this through? hans: a status check on how they have done recently, a big, long meeting. remember, syriza has a 12-vote margin in the 300-seat parliament. the vote was to say, do you want to default on payments or stay true to our principles and not compromise? the vote failed by a count of 95-75. that means there are 75 within the greek parliament that do not want to compromise the principles, even if it means defaulting to the imf. this is going to be center stage at the finance ministers meeting that takes place here in germany. wolfgang schauble it looks like
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he will be holding the line that austerity needs to continue to be implemented. we will can -- we will see whether the americans and others give in to this demand side argument. we have to see how this is going to fall out. caroline: hans nichols from a bright and sunny berlin. thank you very much. manus: let's go over to hong kong now. chinese stocks have been surging towards a seven-year high. it is a bullish story from china. the analysts keep upgrading the stock. >> that is right. take a look at all of asia. stocks this morning still relatively in the green. korea and hong kong were both closed yesterday for buddha's birthday. a little bit of losses here, down .5%. the hang seng playing catch-up. we saw the gains in shanghai yesterday.
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1.7% this morning. the volumes are pretty high right now, about 30% higher than the 30-day average at this time. we are seeing a lot of those gains coming from the financials, the basic materials, as well as your industrials, up about .3%. there is a lot of talk about this cross-border trading that we are -- in terms of the share sales -- or the share fund, i should say. china and hong kong approved that a couple of days ago. that would be effective on july 1. a lot of speculation about how this is going to do for the hong kong market. most think this will benefit hong kong markets because the china stocks you can trade in hong kong for the past one year have been up about 47%. looking pretty good. they still have quite a bit to
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catch up on. you take a look at the shanghai composite for the past 12 months 140% rally how all the major equity indices out there. still room to go, really. when you take a look at these reports coming out from the local media in hong kong today saying that the shanghai-hong kong stock link that we saw launched recently, the aggregate quota of that might be abolished by the time the shenzhen equity linked starts around summer. a daily limit may be increased. we could see more money flooding into this market. if you were one of those analysts a year ago that said this rally was going to be hitting 28%, you may have been an optimist before, but now you are being seen as a pessimist because stock prices just blowing all of these target prices out of the water.
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they said it is getting embarrassing now, trying to upgrade these target prices. there could be some hiccups along the way. they said especially if we are going to start seeing the shanghai composite hit the 5000 mark. we are almost getting there. about 4892 for today. about two dozen or so ipos happening in june, not a small amount either. manus: let's hope that it continues to glitter. mark: the wave of dealmaking between u.s. cable companies is expected to continue. the latest is news that charter communications is close to a deal with time warner cable. quite a premium is likely to be paid. caroline, what is the story here? caroline: let's dig into the numbers. it is a huge deal. the fourth biggest smaller -- charter communications lying the
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second-biggest player, time warner cable. the deal could be announced as soon as today. charter communications offering $55 billion. that is a 14% premium $195 per share, cash and stock. it is about $100 in cash, the rest coming in stock. there is an option to up the cash portion if shareholders prefer that. but this is all about the race to become a bigger player in the united states. remember, cable companies feeling the hit when it comes to amazon netflix. a content war is going on. if you become a bigger player acquiring number two quadrupling the number of customers would mean it becomes the second-biggest player. a bigger company needs more leverage and more clout when negotiating contracts with
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television networks. you are trying to get that content. a big price tag, a big premium going on. there is a tussle to buy the smaller companies in the u.s.. it is all about mergers. suddenly, things got a little spicy last week. we suddenly have a last-minute competition coming from alt the french companyice. -- from altice. the french company coming into the u.s. suddenly, you have a little bit of a heat going on. charter communications making their second bit for time warner cable -- bid for time warner cable and offering a big premium to fend off the competition. it is not just time warner cable that they are going for. they are also in the midst of buying bright house. that was announced early in the year. they are trying to work out how
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much that cost them at the moment. we understand it was about $10 billion. that is actually charter, the number four player, trying to buy time warner, the number two but also the number six player brighthouse. a bit of a tussle going on for time warner cable in general. look at what they have done to try to fend off patrick druggie -- draghi coming back for a second bite of the cherry. john malone is the man for charter communications it he owns liberty broadband and will help to fund this deal. that makes it a very difficult price point and structure for altice to be able to top. they are taking into consideration the competition for the asset and the antitrust concerns. remember, time warner cable was being merged with comcast, the number one and the number two players but the regulators did not like that.
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that deal unraveled and now the likes of charter communications are coming back for a second attempt. they are going to have a big breakup fee if it does not happen. manus: let's get you up to speed with some of the top stories on bloomberg at this hour. david cameron met with the european commission president to talk about renegotiating the terms of britain's membership of the bloc. it is part of a weeklong tour discovery -- discussing a referendum. the french prime minister in paris on friday. apple's top designer jony ive will give up his day-to-day managerial duties in what the company says is a promotion to a new creative position. apple said he will still need design efforts while his deputies take on managerial duties.
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retailers have agreed toend -- to end they dispute. it puts an end to shortages that grounded airplanes, shut banks and threatened businesses. major fuel retailers work baning -- they are still owed $1 billion in payment. you can find more detail on all of those stories on caroline: you can join the conversation on twitter. mark arden -- mark barton, manus cranny, caroline hyde. give us your thoughts on the m&a that is happening in the united states. jony ive, everyone thinking this is carving him out to be the focus of the future. mark: coming up we look at the
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prospects for an agreement between the greek creditors and government. stay with us. ♪
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mark: the greek government has expressed confidence a deal can still be reached with its creditors by the end of the month, in time for a payment to the imf jute -- do on june 5.
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disagreements still exist on sales tax rates and pension rules. stanley fischer weighed in on the situation yesterday. he says europe will find a way to deal with these situations. >> there is still a great problem. nobody quite knows how that is going to be resolved but it is expected now by most people that the euro area will break up. they will probably find a way of dealing with greece. if they do not, they have put a lot of safeguards in place to make it possible for that to happen. mark: let's discuss the situation in greece and some of the other key stories. joining us is christopher. stanley fischer is hopeful some sort of agreement can be reached. they still have to pay a lot of money in the month of june.
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christopher: absolutely right. i think greece's problem is, to negotiate effectively, they need to cause pain among the creditors to scare them into some kind of more flexible position. it never quite seems to -- they are trying to be sometimes to amicable -- too amicable. behind the scenes the finance minister is shaking the tree a little bit. i agree with stanley fischer. it seems like a deal should be in the cards. we have been doing this for a long time now. the likely scenario is the deal gets done. it is a unique event. it still could worry markets a little bit. caroline: having to scare them to a certain degree certain affected london and greek stocks. what about the rest of the eurozone?
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christopher: it has been contained. that has been the difference this time around. so the contagion is not so much economic now. it is more political. manus: i was thinking of what christine lagarde said recently. a comprehensive approach, not a quick, dirty job. i do not know how dirty it is but that is the fundamental point. let's say, delay the imf. it is piecemeal. there is still no big resolution. that is what the market really wants to see. christopher: i think greek debt has to be written down. that is the resolution we are ultimately heading towards. the greek voters have spoken. the imf and germany have taken a very hard line which is they
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are only negotiating positions the only thing they can do. two sides both know where we need to end up, but no one can take that first step. mark: austerity, when it comes to -- anti-austerity, when it comes to elections, reared its head. how does that change the political landscape of europe after syruza -- syriza took power in greece? christopher: it is definitely shifting left. not a massive shift, but a difference of opinion. voters want change. i think that is what we are seeing. not just for greece and spain, but britain as well. i think the current slate of affairs in the european union is not really satisfactory. maybe it never really had democratic support, but i think
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people are beginning to speak. caroline: shifting gears a little bit and looking elsewhere in the world, we have chinese stocks once again rallying. what are you feeling about china? it seems as though investors just cannot leave it alone even though they know is is getting into bubble territory. christopher: it is all about news flow. we have msci deciding whether china's share of the index will increase. and then we have a series of data going on until november when it is debated at the imf level within the chinese become part of the special drawing rights reserve currency. a lot of stages towards liberalization of chinese capital markets. it is all about news flow. manus: janet yellen spoke of providence.
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she is going into the june meeting with an open mind, which is sort of ominous. where do you stand? the most dovish tightening on record. christopher: i could not agree more. tightening is not quite the right word for it. the u.s. economy has been surprisingly weak through the first quarter. you can attribute that to the temporary factors, the strong dollar, the oil industry, the port strike, the weather but it has been very weak. the employment data we have had a lot of week -- that is worried people. will it bounce back question this is critical for me. -- bounceback? this is critical for me.
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i do not think we will know until we get the gdp number four q2. mark: the yield on the german 10-year was at 64 basis points. christopher: bond markets are not driven by fundamentals anymore. if they were, they would not be where they are for the last year or so. for me, it is about the buyers and sellers. the buyers and sellers are the central banks. to predict the behavior of the central banks -- personally it looks a little bit better than it did a month ago. i am more pro-bond markets now. mark: thank you so much. caroline: coming up, energy crisis in nigeria. we will talk about the fuel shortage that is grounding airplanes shutting banks, and crippling africa's biggest economy. stay tuned. meanwhile keeping a close eye on the oil prices today.
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how these markets continue to play after we reopen after the bank holiday in the u.s. holiday. ♪
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manus: you are very welcome back to "countdown." let's check in on the foreign exchange markets. are you a dollar strength trader or a euro weakness traitor? -- trader? janet yellen said she is going into the federal reserve meeting for june with an open mind. the dollar, of course -- the question is, how dovish will the tightening be? consumer confidence comes in today. we are expecting that to dip
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ever so slightly. us home sales come in today along with durable goods so the fed goes with an open mind. the dollar rises .7% today. the slate of fed voices this week is fairly light. you will get the richmond fed governor, typically hawkish, due to speak later today. the euro is definitely moving lower. is that the greek story? is that varoufakis saying, we will take as much pain as we can? here we are on the euro. the 50-day moving average and the 55-day moving average. it is 1.0920. will they or won't they make their 1.5 billion euro payment in june? that is all putting pressure. the euro down for the third day. you really begin to see the momentum in the euro when it comes to -- there you have the
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overall move. that is the euro dollar trade. let's put up the euro-sterling for you. let's just do this. euro against the pound. that is what we want to show you. we have this overall momentum in euro-sterling. you really are beginning to move towards those march 11 moves. you have seen the biggest weekly drop last week. bloomberg survey says you will break the .70 level by the end of the year. bnp paribas saying you will hit .68. ubs saying to go along the pound against the aussie dollar. momentum calling for a stronger sterling and a weaker euro. that is euro-sterling this morning. mark: the top stories on bloomberg this hour. singapore's economy grew more than estimated last quarter as demand for exports improved.
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gdp rose 3.2%. that compares with an april estimate of 1.1%. charter communications is near an agreement to buy time warner cable for about $55.1 billion. that is according to people familiar with the matter. this is charters second move on time warner cable after its early 2014 bid was rejected. ryanair says full-year earnings jumped as europe's biggest discount carrier sought to luer a new generation of passengers. the airline said profit after tax gained 56% in the year two 948 million dollars. you can find more on that story at stay with bloomberg and "countdown." we will be joined by ryanair's cfo. that is around 7:00 u.k. time. caroline: the first person to face trial for alleged --
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ryan is there. tell us about this trial. ryan: tom is finally going to get his day in court. in just a few hours, three years after they began investigating the manipulation of libor. libor is the rate that banks say they are lending to one another at. it is very important. $350 trillion worth of loans and securities are at least partly priced on the back of the libor rate. the indictment accuses mr. hayes of eight counts of conspiracy to defraud investors. he, according to the indictment, was doing that as far back as 2006.
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when he was at ubs. he then went to citigroup after getting a $3 million signing bonus. he was a very successful trader. he has pled not guilty. he did that two years ago and he will have the next 10 -- most importantly, the next several weeks together with his lawyer and lay out why he is not guilty in this trial. this should go on for two or three months. caroline: the bank already bought out billions in fines for manipulating foreign exchange markets. now we are being reminded of libor. ryan: yeah, well, it has been a big issue in terms of the fines for the banks as well. they have paid about $9 billion in fines for libor. it remains a very material issue. just about five weeks ago deutsche bank reporting
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first-quarter profit that was nearly halved on the back of legal costs. that was almost entirely down to libor finds. it remains an issue of the banks' financisal health in terms of the fines. it was really the watershed moment, too. it will provide for more scrutiny of the banks. in a sense, this is a very important trial for the serious fraud office here in the u.k. one thing that we have not seen any trials of so far are of individual traders. when you think about it, the jurors have to find that he did try to influence libor, and secondarily that that was actually illegal. caroline: ryan chilcote. manus: nigeria's fuel markets
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have agreed to resume supplies. planes grounded and banks closed. let's get a little bit more on the situation. the head of energy research at eco-bank joins us from nigeria. great to have you with us this morning. give me a bit of context here. this goes back to the marketers claiming that goodluck jonathan's administration owed them nearly $1 billion. do we know how they agreed on that figure two close this scenario? >> thank you for having me on your show. the details of the agreement that was reached yesterday have not been made public yet. what was disputed was $159
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million -- about $800 million. that was what was disputed. to what extent that has been agreed to a committee has been set up and they will investigate and audit. the community will be handed over to the new government. this committee exists. manus: give me some kind of sense -- the headlines that i read said that the planes were grounded. we are looking at some images from the weekend. economic impact. have you had an opportunity to think about that? do we know what impact this will have? >> i think it does. it has a major impact. in terms of numbers, you want to
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look at the fact that -- some economies have lost as much as $1 billion. transportation costs were a lot higher. everything went to about five times the normal price because of the shortages. manus: is this, as it were directly the result of differences with goodluck jonathan's administration? what can we expect from the new prime minister who succeeds to official power on friday? will he investigate the energy market and change how this relationship between the marketers and the energy
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payments are made? >> to provide a little context the reason why the figure was disputed was because part of the market felt that the exchange rates -- there had to be a higher exchange rate including the subsidy payment. they were already paying the market. one of the major points of contention was the payments. he is going to do an investigation. he believes that the subsidy payments are the root of corruption in the country. so he will be investigating this with respect to that. he also intends to cancel the entire subsidy program.
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especially at this time when we are not getting as much revenue. they are worried that if he cancels the subsidy program, he will not be paid what he is owed. manus: tell me this -- do you expect the new administration to invest more in the oil infrastructure of a country that has got the capacity? you have 4 state-owned refineries. they can produce 440,000 barrels a day. it is one of those sad, tragic ironies. >> exactly. it is. so much money has been going into payment of subsidies and not use to revive the
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refineries. the other option would be to privatize the refineries. the producers in nigeria have no pipelines. there is a significant amount of pipeline vandalism and attacks. that is an area of investment that needs to be looked at by the government. investment in railways to ensure that there are alternatives. manus: the head of energy research at eco-bank. inc. you for joining us. mark: join the conversation on twitter. tell us what you are following today. this is where you can find us. manus: coming up, our next guest
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says a grexit is a real possibility. more on the deal that should and could come. ♪
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caroline: the top stories on bloomberg for you this hour. david cameron met with jean-claude juncker to talk about renegotiating the terms of britain's membership of the lock
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-- the bloc. cameron will meet the danish prime minister on thursday and the fresh president -- the french president on friday. apple's top designer has been named chief design officer. he will give up day-to-day managerial does -- duties in what the company says is a promotion. apple says he will still be the designer, but he will let his deputies take on the managerial duties. nigerian fuel detainers have agreed to end a dispute. the agreement puts an end to the worst shortages in a decade. major fuel retailers were holding back supplies because they say they are still owed $1 billion in outstanding payments by the outgoing government of president goodluck jonathan. manus: let's get a little bit
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more on the situation in greece. the government has expressed confidence that it can reach a deal with creditors. our next guest says it will be difficult, but a grexit is a genuine risk. let's bring in merrill lynch's head of fx strategy. we come up with probabilities. >> recent weeks, the negotiations have improved. they are discussing about substance, about policies. however, we do not have a complete agreement on anything specific. time is very short. during june, greece has to repay about 1.6 billion euros to the imf. the cash is running out. we need a deal by the end of this week early next week.
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that is very important. this is the main issue. in order to avoid negative scenarios in the months ahead. caroline: who gives? who gives -- who does the compromising? thanos: definitely somebody will have to compromise. the greek government has been saying that they are not willing to accept a deal that goes beyond the lines of the election program. this is actually impossible. there is no deal without more fiscal austerity. you can have a deal with less fiscal austerity than before but there is no deal without reforms. you can have a scenario in which the creditors agree to accept less austerity, but the greek government has to accept more reforms. that is why the key issue is
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opposition in the government and whether they will be able to compromise. mark: what happens if the greek parliament does not approve the deal? thanos: when i asked governor fisher this question he said this is the reason why they do not have a deal yet. we know that they need a deal because otherwise, greece will default. it is very likely that, at some point, the government will be forced to go to the parliament with a deal that goes beyond the headlines. if, at that point, the deal is not approved, this is a negative scenarios for greece. it means the program is off. it means they are not supporting the greek banks. we go into a scenario that would approach grexit risk. manus: translate all of this into the recent resurgence on
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the downside in the euro. the euro is declining against the pound. the momentum against the euro is rebuilding. is that your bottom line on this? thanos: it is one of the reasons we have seen the greek headlines affecting the markets. there are other reasons as well. u.s. debt has started improving. also we have seen a number of dovish comments by the ecb. positioning is not as strong in the euro as it was a couple of months ago. we believe that greek risks have a negative impact on the euro at least in the short term. caroline: the grexit is still a risk, you feel. you have this interesting scenario that you play out where it is an alternative to a grexit. spell us out what this other
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scenario could bp -- could be. thanos: we are trying to think what happens if there is no deal. is a grexit inevitable? in one scenario, the europeans agree to profile the official launch to greece without giving money to greece and letting greece meet the fiscal targets. we do not believe that such a solution would be consistent -- would be considered now. however, in a worst-case scenario where there is no deal and the europeans would like to avoid a grexit, this would give greece a last chance. mark: what is your favorite fx trade at the moment? thanos: the dollar is back. we definitely like being long dollar. versus euro and currencies such as the new zealand dollar which
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has also been weakening. we believe that, beyond the short-term risk from greece monetary policies will come back as a key driver of fx markets. the fed and the bank of england will be the first to move. manus: always great to get your info to refresh our minds. the head of european g 10 fx at bank of america-merrill lynch. mark: let's move on. london ambulance has saved over 32,000 lives. the organization is a charity, relying heavily on donation. it is trying to fund a second chopper. some of the funding is coming from an unusual source, libor finds. -- fines.
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>> they go to the sickest, most severely-injured patient and bring the hospital to the patient. >> the interventions that we provide our time critical to the patient. we are able to get to people around eight times faster than we can when we use a response car. we are able to take quite a range of procedures including blood transfusion and emergency anesthesia. i think there are two big surprises about london's air ambulances. the first is that we are a charity. we are not supported by central government, other than the libor funds. for us, the irony is not lost on me. bad behavior in the past has led to a catalyst. there is one helicopter covering 10 million people and that is
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not good enough for london. we have raised lots of other money from individuals and other businesses in the city, but we still have 2 million pounds to go to help sustain a second aircraft for london. >> some patients need emergency surgery at the scene of the accident. those extra minutes could be the difference between them surviving or not surviving. manus: time for the best of our digital access across bloomberg. this is europe's suv from lamborghini. what do you do when you want to get a warm, friendly country to build you a lamborghini? you do a tax deal, of course. lamborghini have struck a deal -- of course, they are owned by audi. they are going to do it in rome. the plan is to hire 500 people
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as much as 80 million euros in tax breaks and benefits. quid pro quo. mark: the champions league trophy to real madrid. they are so tough to work for. he has been kicked out. benitez is the favorite, current manager of napoli. this year they won nothing. they were kicked out of the champions league in the semifinal. if you are real you need to deliver a trophy every year or see you later. manus: off you go. caroline: a bit of food or tuesday. everyone feeling sluggish after a bank holiday.
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perhaps too much bordeaux. at the moment, early stages before you know what the final product is going to taste like. good critical ratings for the more recent crop better than the previous years of 2011-2013. the takeaway is, buy older wine. many are saying it is not enough of a renewed sense of excitement about this and the real value is in the backdated bordeaux. 2006, so say the wine critics and the london wine funds. mark: we know you like your cider. caroline: i do not know my vintages that well, but i am just getting into bordeaux. i am finding my taste buds. manus: you can never refine your taste buds too much. we are back in the next hour. profits are up at reiner -- at
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ryanair. we speak to the cfo. that is straight after this rate. stay with the "countdown" team. ♪
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>> greece returns to rescue talks after varoufakis blamed creditors for the standoff. the finance minister said his country withstand anymore. mark: fund sales get approval. in the second biggest economy in the world. manus: chartered communications is set to be in agreement to buy time warner cable. we bring you details. anna: the c.e.o. of rain air pushes to expand its low cost customer base.
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mark: welcome to "countdown." i'm mark barton. caroline: caroline hyde. mark: manus cranny. we take a look at how billions of dollars collected in fines are being spent. probably something you would not expect. saving lives. that is the story on "countdown." mark: profit rose 66%. let's speak the company's c.f.o. hello. thanks for joining us. you have given guidance -- why should we believe your guidance deal? five times last year you raised your guidance. why should we believe the guidance when we know you're going to raise -- boy couldn't
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you be less cautious? >> we believe we're -- oil prices where they are at the moment we have been somewhat cautious when we look at our guidance. our profit is 10% up where it was on the current year. $867 million. could be $970 million next year. 10% increase in passengers. we have become the first airline in passenger ever to carry 1 million passengers. the cost remains very much in check. our unit costs excluding fuel -- there are a lot of positives in there. caroline: you said fuel prices
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could spark irrational behavior by competitors. >> it could happen but we're not seeing it. caroline: how much would be enough to hurt, what sort of price points? >> we're very well hedged for the current year. we're 90% hedged. the 10% unhedged will be taking in at lower levels. our currency 90% hedged as well at 134. very good shape. it is really the other airlines that will feel the pain. we're buying lower cost aircraft and financing ourselves at very low levels. 1.125. some of our competitive airlines were financing the sales over 7% last week. the cost cap is starting to widen. ryanair always has been and will be -- we hit the passenger
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numbers. if we see -- we could see some reduction in fairs. manus: three years into this. change of philosophy. >> always getting better. manus: i like that. but it is about the business traveler, you said. you're going to hit 100 million this year. give us some hard numbers in terms of -- out of the 100 million what number are business travelers? >> first and foremost it is not about the business traveler. we have a lot of families. we brought in our family product as well last year which has proven to be very popular. at the moment approximately 27% of our passengers are business passengers. not all of them are on business trips, though. that is the challenge to convert about 70% of our business travelers into business class. i think the network that we have, the reach that we have, 30
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countries, 190 different airports and with 50% of our growth coming from primary airports, we have -- with the business passenger. dublin, we added different routes into u.k. and mainland europe. that helps drive the numbers over this winter and that is why the fourth quarter was the pictures profit we have had since 2007. mark: the plan is to operate from every major airport beyond the three main hubs. >> more or less. mark: could you ever see yourself operating at the heathrows and the charles de gaulles? >> what is difficult is the 25-minute turnaround. we would probably circle around 25 minutes. if they can do something to
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address the 25-minute turnaround. mark: build another runway? >> we are saying build three new run ways. mark: who is going to win, though, when it comes to the runway? >> we need three. that is the only real solution for london. it is something that has to be considered. there is a lot of capacity and space for another runway. caroline: what about the european commission looking at adding this moment allowing a sale to go through potentially by the government in terms of its stake to iag. what are you thage on how that -- your decision? >> we still haven't received an offer. once we receive an offer we can't really comment on it. the board looks at it based on its merits.
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it would be premature for me. manus: when you look at business families and -- where do you get the biggest bang for your marketing dollar? >> it is pretty well split. we have 1,600 groups in our net of 1,800 flights a day. you're getting the business passenger -- the first thing in the morning on material wave. the elderly passenger throughout the day and later on in the week. mark: who -- the most on the plane? >> there is a number of reasons for that as well. we improved the offering. the coffee we have is better. the food that we have. we're one of the largest sellers of paninis in europe, on the aircraft. mark: what else can you squeeze? >> we don't squeeze our passengers.
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mark: what else can you offer when it comes to auxiliaries? >> we're continually looking at the offerings that we have and how we can better personalize the offering that we have to our customers. rather than offering you something you don't want, we look to get the know you better and offer you something that you do want. the larger car or up sized hotel room. we will make it more personalized. this is what we're working on. with our new mobile app. we have a new website coming in the autumn. this will give a better insight to what our commerce want. manus: just one last question on the air ling us situation. how is ireland better served? doing a deal with i.a.g. or remaining independent or doing a deal with you? how is ireland better served?
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on airling us. >> i think ireland is very well served by ryanair at the moment. competition always is good. we welcome competition. we relish it. mark: good to see you. caroline: let's check in some other top stories. u.k. prime minister david cameron met with jean-claude juncker. it is part of a week-long tour discussing a referendum with e.u. leaders. cameron will meet with the danish prime minister. charter communications is near an agreement to buy time warner
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cable for about $55.1 billion. that is according to people familiar with the matter. this is charter's second move on time warner cable after its early 2014 bid was rejected. poland has had its biggest political upset in a decade. in his own duda doesn't have authority to dictate domestic policies. it raised the prospect for the opposition party to gown clout in parliamentary elections this fall. manus: join us on twitter. we are there. mark: coming up, the first trial for alleged libor rate rigging takes place in london. we'll bring you more on that after the break. ♪
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manus: greek officials will revive their bid to access financial aide today. sim tsipras' spokesman said a deal can be reached by the end of may. hans nichols is in berlin. our other guest is in athens. let's kick it off with you hans. more being voiced by varoufakis in terms of the level of austerity that is said not to have worked over the past four years. hans: not just the level of austerity, the very existence of austerity. that is what varoufakis said is only the deal breaker between greece and getting additional money unlocked from their creditors. they are clearly going to need it. june 5 they have a big payment due.
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varoufakis said that the creditors' insistance on austinner is steadfast. here is an -- on austerity is steadfast. he said our government cannot and will not accept a cure that has proven itself over five long years to be to be worse than the disease. shoible laid the problem squarely at the greeks. if greece wants out of this predicament, it is up to greece. the germans are not going to bend much more. there is not going to be much give. the oliver blanchard criticized greece for their pension reforms and number of civil servants. let's hear what he has to say on this and how mr. tsipras is going to get themselves out of this knot.
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manus? manus: let's head to athens now. the response to varoufakis' comment. we have interviewed a couple of people saying that it is the internal split that are that is the biggest obstacle in taking a deal across the line. >> it is another groundhog day. the brussels group of greek officials. the european commission and the i.m.f. resume talks. greek government spokesman said yesterday that significant differences need to be -- in areas including sales, tax reform pension reform labor market regulation, especially those last two labor market reform and pension overhaul including pension cuts are a red line. not just for the government parties but -- but also for
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cabinet ministers. what is for sure is that there is only five weeks to go before the bailout expansion expires. after june 30 there will be nothing. the i.m.f. definitely will not stay in the greek program is there is no funding from the euro area. of course greek is going to need another extension. the clock is ticking. manus: hans, let me just take it back to you for a minute now and talk about tsipras. he is standing within his own party. i touched on it a little bit earlier that one of the most difficult points, as i said, is the validity within his own party. does he still have this outright mandate to actually negotiate or what is the risk that gets a deal that he can't get across
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the line in his own parliament? hans: let's do the numbers. yesterday there was a vote put forward, a status check and the left platform the far left platform, far left part of the party put forward the vote should greece make an i.m.f. payment or go back renege on their core principles? it failed but it failed 95-75. that means there are 75 members that do not want to see a payment to the i.m.f. if there is going to be a compromising of core values. you have a debate about what core values or principles are but at least in the 70's, in the 75 range, that's how many votes may be opposed to mr. tsipras' approach and that seems to be a problem if and when they get a deal to, have to bring it back to their parliament. manus?
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manus: there is lots of technical language being used. there is a process. there are voices of dissent saying you know what? won't parkse can't pay shouldn't pay the i.m.f. where are we? >> as hans explained we have listened over the past several weeks. several members and ministers saying that greece shouldn't fay i.m.f. the government has that flirted with this idea in the past. even with the prime minister, mr. tsipras said in a letter on may 8 to i.m.f. 's director ms lagarde saying that greece wasn't going fay i.m.f. at the end of the day, they do pay. the reason is you don't want to mess up with an organization
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that more or less includes every single state in the world. second is that greek banks rely on government -- for emergency cash to stay afloat. if the guarantor, if the greek state misses a debt pame then the -- the e.c.b. may conclude that these guarantees are no longer -- for emergency cash. then greece will have to impose capital controls because there will simply be no cash left in greek a.t.m.s. manus: hans nichols in berlin. mark: the deal between cable
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companies continues. quite a premium is likely to be paid, isn't there? caroline: what a price tag. $55 billion is what we understand according to people familiar that we are getting close to this terms of a deal for time warner cable. charter communications actually buying a company doubled its size in terms of market evaluation. it is offering $195 per share. that is a 14% premium. many raising their eyebrows about this. there is an option of shareholders that prefer to up the cash element to $115. meanwhile, this is about beefing yourself up in the united states. we're having a flurry of, of consolidation in cable. a lot of smaller players teaming
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up together. if we saw chartered communications buying time warner cable they would be quadrupling the amount of subscribers they have. that would manage to leapfrog them into second place behind comcast in terms of size. comcast has 22 million users. you become a bigger company you have more leverage when you're actually making deals, negotiating contracts with tv networks. you have more leverage. that's why they want to do it it is to take on scale and lure over more commerce and try to fend off the rise of amazon and netflix when it comes to how we want to digest our content. we have a bit of spice and competition coming in. remember last week suddenly patrick draghi seized the owner of chartered as a mentor.
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came in and started having negotiations himself. we saw the likes of them wanting to buy up, they were going into the seventh biggest player if the u.s. they also had discussions with time warner cable. last-minute competition coming from the other billionaire, patrick draghi. to come back for a second bid. they offered about a year ago to buy time warner cable. the price wasn't right. we saw comcast swoop in and that merger suddenly gained momentum. it was blocked off because of regulatory concerns. number one and number two players not sitting well with regulators. chartered gets the second bite over the cherry. interestingly, chartered communications is already combining and buying. they are still negotiating over
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the terms of that particular deal. we understand about $10 billion. it would be joining forces of the number two player, the number four player and the number six player. really interesting and quite con volume luted deal going on. it is what they are able to offer and why they are going to be able to knock back patrick draghi's offer. john malone is the big est shareholder in chartered communications. he is actually going to be helping fund this deal, to the tune of about $5 billion buying up shares of time warner cable. al's the has more debt on its books. they are noting that this could be a bit of a struggle and they are trying to lure over the time wanner shareholders. offering them a breakup fee. that is chunky.
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we'll see how this goes down to the regulators. as soon as today we could get that deal. mark: caroline, thanks. manus: a former trader will become the first person to face libor rigging when he ea peers in court in london. ryan chilcote is there for us. good morning to you. details on the trial please. ryan: the trial begins in a few hours. really tom hayes first chance to depend himself. three years after the -- n the u.k. began investigating to the alleged manipulation of libor. three years after mr. hayes was arrested. you know what libor is. it is the rate that banks report that sit on a panel that they are able to lend to one another at -- they reported it about 11:00 in the morning every day. the indictment alleged that mr. hayes along with a group of
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other traders conspired to do fraud. there are counterparties for their own benefit. for his own benefit. just real estate minder $350 trillion of loans and securities are at least partyly valued according to libor. this is a really big deal. of course the allegations, the counts themselves go back all the way to 2006 when mr. hayes -- at u.b.s. -- in 2009 he went to citigroup after getting a $3 million signing bonus. the trial begins today. it ought to be very interesting. it is expected to last 10-12 weeks. generally with these cases it is the first week that is most interesting because that is when they take the stand. after the jury gets selected and that is when you hear what they think or their lawyers think really transpired. manus? manus: ryan, we've had a series
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of fines. colossal fines for libor. those are on the foreign exchange issues. those fines have already taken place. what else can you tell us in terms of today's proceedings? ryan: the numbers are always by. in the case of libor, the fines they have faced is about $9 billion. they remain immaterial. we is that you with deutsche bank's legal costs eroding their profits. what is most important to keep in mind is it is the investigation into libor that was watershed moment when we saw a big outcry for more scrutiny of the banks. what we haven't see, what we will see today is the beginning over the criminal process where individual traders are pursued.
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this trial should take about 12 weeks. manus: we're going to have to leave you there. thank you very much for being with us. stay with us. we have brenda kelly. she is coming into the studio after the break. ♪
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manus: welcome back to "countdown." 7:30 in london. the question for foreign exchange traders, are you a dollar bull or euro bear? the dollar continues to trade higher up by 1%. this is dollar index. 96.88. the fed goes into its june meeting with an open mind. you a rash of data today. consumer confidence. new home sales, durable good all expected to give you a little bit more of a picture before the next federal reserve meeting and the momentum seems to be
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september or december is the liftoff period of time. one of the great lines for the weekend, which is this federal reserve and the fomc will be one of the most dovish tight engine history. jeffrey lacker said that is one of the few federal reserve voices that you will hear. the dollar is high this morning up by nearly 1%. where the dollar goes higher your euro dollar treads lower. down 1.6%. this is the euro/dollar. no agreement with the creditors. potentially threatening not to pay the i.m.f. that is not from varoufakis himself but talk about the level of austerity being too much for greece to bear. you are at a four-week low. the currency per trade, that a little bit lower. if you want to see how the
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euro's performance, that is the euro. all right. let's have a look at the euro/sterling. a little bitless aggressive on the downside this morning but nonetheless moment um is building. how quickly will you retest? the march 11 lows the biggest weekly drop in almost four months. careline? mark: manus, it is me. g.d.p. rose 3.2% in the last quarter compared to an april estimate of 1. %. johnny ive has been named chief design officer. apple says he will still lead
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design efforts. ryanair says full year earnings jumped. the airline said profit after tax gains, 56% through march to 867 million euros. cameron kicks off a week of wooing european leaders. caroline: in order to secure researches ahead of the referendum set for 2015, i think david cameron has been on many of these, many right ins. juncker for dinner monday night and told the european commission that britains are not happy. what does it signal for us about the referendum? of course it is being promised madly. cameron will be trying to woo people about what negotiations he wants to see.
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>> he is keen to bring it forward if that is possible. germany keen to bring the referendum forward to next year. he is trying to make that possible. of course he needs to get all e.u. members to agree to reforms in order to achieve something significant. mark: what are the advantages and obstacles to moving a referendum forward? >> well, the obstacles, essentially getting everyone to agree to those reforms. the advantage is for cameron this off the table earlier. it is going to dominate his term until that happens. the advantages for germany that it doesn't interfere with the local elections, or the presidential elections. manus: what is realistically possible in terms of reform? everybody is saying he needs to come back with issues to the british public which go to the harts and that is about
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immigration. that is about welfare and that is about health. those are the issues that came before on the doorsteps, even bringing labor to the -- they would move on their position on supporting a referendum. >> those are the issues. the question is what form do they take? most people agree that treaty change is not a realistic goal. what cameron may achieve is some kind of protocol. that would make treaty change to said level possible in the future. manus: is he the euro skeptic within his own party? >> this idea that he is going achieve little and dress it up. there are skeptics in the party who just want out. they will never be satisfied. i remember a little while ago -- said they felt a lot of negotiations had already been done and already managed to
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secure enough potentially. do you think that is in any way the case, that he knows he can get certain things passed? >> i don't think so actually. i think the problem is before the election, he was still in campaigning mode and ail yenated a lot of other leaders with tough talk on migration. those are the bridges he needs to build in order to get things passed. mark: thanks. one of the top stories is greece where the government has expressed confidence it can reach a deal with creditors before the end of may. let's talk about this and other key stories. brenda kelly is back. welcome back, brendpavepl >> thank you very much. mark: good to see you. shall we start with the pound? it is not being felt, the
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referendum in the fx markets, is it? the sterling is almost at a seven-year high, isn't it? >> indeed it is. serge if your compare it to the u.s. or the eurozone as a whole, the u.k. seems to be powering ahead. we have seen deflation -- with the first quarter, we have seen retail sales surge ahead. it looks very positive for the u.k. i would say that bank of england would more than likely move before the fed when it comes to tightening monetary policy. caroline: when will that ba b? >> i think early next year. you have seen janet yellen say we could see inning something this year but i think she is trying show that she is not oblivious to asset prices. i think it is very much the rhetoric she is using to put a cap on those prices but i'm not
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so sure we're ready to see monetary tightening from the fed just yet. manus: the election has gone and passed. we have this referendum to come. sterling is on a march against euro. it is retouching strong levels on the dollar. are you a sterling stpwhum >> i would be a sterling bull, certainly against the euro. i think it is going to break that 70 pence support level. it is going to take a while to do so. it is a strong support level. we haven't seen it below that level in a number of years. maybe a certain amount of upside if greece comes ahead and makes some agreement to the bale bailout over the next couple of days. i think we'll see around 68 69 by the year end. mark: at what stage? >> i think it will be a delayed reaction. it is like everything in the markets. it forgets about it until the last minute. we will more than likely see the
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pound progress higher but then as it becomes clearer that a referendum was in the offing, we know how reliable polls are, then we could obviously see some volatility in the pound as well. caroline: how much will be -- by the bank of england? basically mark carney is degree they are calling it super thursday. this week they are starting to -- in august it will be brought in the voting records the inflation report, the interest rate decisions will all be unleashed on the market in one fell swoop. how do people digest it? >> it is a learning curve. markets tend to getted to this. obviously data is going to be the real swaying -- for the pound and everything will be down whether it is fed-related or bank of england-related. it will be a whole new meaning
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in the last quarter of this year. we have seen forward guidance over the last number of years. manus: the most dovish tight engine history. that is the line i treevered weekend with regard to the fed. would you concur with that? it is not so much when they will go it is what is the trajectory thereafter. >> i think the timing of it is one thing but how quickly we'll see interest rate hikes will be the most important thing. there is -- that it will be a gradual, creative way of increasing interest rates. the markets, we have a 50/50 chance in december. i think tpwhal the earliest that we'll see it. mark: brenda you're staying with us. brenda kelly of fx. caroline: union join us on
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twitter. mark at mark barton tv manus cranny at manus cranny. and brenda underscore kelly. manus: up next it is the bart chart. what a difference a month makes for greece. stay with "countdown." ♪
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mark: the impasse with creditors continues. the last month has witnessed a sizable increase for the greek stock market since the a.s.c. index. it reached a 21-month low on april 21. rebounded by 16%. which is the best performance among the 93 global primary equity indices we track at bloomberg. if stock market index has risen
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by 66%. things look very different over the last three months. the red circle there. the a.s.e. index has dropped by 12% through there. this is the worst performer among global equity benchmarks out of the 93 we track at bloomberg. over the last six months from the green circle on the top chart right there. only the kaz stan benchmark has fared worse with a drop of 15-8%. down 15.4%. if we look at the last 12 months, the far left hand corner of your screen there, the top chart, the a.s. sembings bottom of the pile again. when you look at global stock marks with a 30% decline. now bond market interestingly, the bottom chart tells the same story. it is the bloomberg greece sovereign bond index. a gauge of greek government
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bonds. over the last months, the yellow serkle here, the index has returned 10% beating all other bloomberg world sovereign bond indices in that time, every other global sovereign bond index has dropped. we're talking about price here of course. not the yield. things look very different over the last three months, since the end of february. this index has dropped by 13%. the worst performance among bloomberg world sovereign bonds. the pink circle through right here, the gauge has fallen by 15%. again, the worst performing global sovereign bond index. over the last 12 months, the far left hand corner over the bottom chart there, the bloomberg greece sovereign bond index has sunk by 24%. once again, the worst performing sovereign bond market in the world. in that time, by the way, no other national sovereign bond
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index has delivered and there you have it. proof as if you ever needed it. the timing is everything when it comes to investing greek assets have fared very different over the last month compared to the previous three. six and 12 months. what a difference a month makes. manus: let's get you up to date with some of the top stories on bloomberg at this mower. david cameron mead met with jean-claude junker to talk about renegotiating the terms of britain's membership of the block. it is part of a week long tour. cam ro ron will meet with the danish prime minister thursday in copenhagen and the french president hollande in paris on friday. charter communications is on track to buy time warn cable for $55 billion.
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ryanair says full year earnings profit after tax gained 66% in the year to 867 million euros. caroline: the greek government has expressed confidence that a deal can be reached with its creditors by the end of the month. the payment is due to the i.m.f. on june 5. both sides say disagreements still exist in key areas such as sales tax rates and pension rules. >> there is still a greek problem. nobody knows how that is going to be resolved but it is not expected now by most people -- almost all, that the euro area
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will break up. they will probably find a way of dealing with greece. and if they don't, they have put a lot of safeguards in place to make it possible for that to happen. >> do you agree with stanislas wawrinkaly fischer? do you think a deal will be struck? >> it is lower than it was back last month, the bond yield. 4 the probability of a grexit taking place on average 25% to 30% according to a majority of we'll probably see some sort of push but at the on the other hand summer, july at the end over the day, if there is going to be more europe and integration, all of this debt should go into one big pile eventually. i think it is probably in greece's interest to maintain
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status kuo for the time being. -- status quo for the time being. manus: ultimately there will be a debt restructuring? >> i think there has to be there has to be a huge amount of austerity and labor reforms. they have made good inroads over the last five years. the choice of paying back the i.m.f. and paying their pension funds and wages, i think greece will go for the latter rather than the former. i think we have to see some debt restructuring if we're going to keep playing ball really. mark: i'm going into our wonderful ecfc function which tells us who is predicting what. nobody predicting parity this quarter then a number predicting parity for the third quarter. have we been pushing back your forecast? >> i think it is someone --
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something that got a little bit crowded. i think the actual selloff of the euro was ever so slightly overdone. it is something we probably see in addition to positions over the next quarter or so. i would imagine that we would get a little bit closer to it. i don't envision parity by tend of the year. i still think that the fed not necessarily -- will create a certain cap on the momentum we're seeing on the u.s. dollar versus the euro. . caroline: in terms of where we're going to be placing our bets in certain fx trades, where do you sympathy an interesting place to be looking? >> the dollar/yen. you is a slight diverging in monetary policies between the two central banks there. we could push that little bit higher there. i would imagine that we could start to cap around the 124 level which could provide a shorting opportunity.
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manus: brenda, thanks, you're staying with us. caroline: let's have a look at what we're seeing outside. not too sunny a die. live shots from london. equities though pretty flat as well after we had the bank holiday, the day off in the united kingdom. not much catch-up today. ♪
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caroline: welcome back. in just a few minutes from the european equity market open. let's get some final thoughts from brenda kelly. give us a few calls for the trading day ahead. we're trying to rev ourselves up after a long bank hol die. >> i think the dollar momentum is still there. probably see residuals move higher. i think the effect of yellen's speech will be felt today. we could see a little bit of a selloff in equity markets today
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with the dollar benefiting from a little bit more upside, particularly against the yen. manus: if we look at central bank policy, the e.c.b. is fully engaged. the next question is will the bank of japan do more? the dollar story, a dollar story like the sterling story where do your chips fall? >> i think the euro, and the amount of quantitative easing, it is down to the slow -- how active they are. that is what we have been seeing over the last number of outings. we saw the last euro trap back. -- drop back. i think the flow is very important. the bank of japan may very well go ahead and do a little bit extra but i think the dollar story remains and that helps the -- the nikkei continues to move that bit higher. i think the equity market
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markets are little bit overdone. mark: "on the move" is next. up next we'll talk about china's stock surge. brenda, thank you very much. ♪
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>> it right here in the city of london, moments away from the start of european trading. let's get to the free. stocks rally. the composite has climbed 100% this year. really. they approach and the ftse 100 is 66% and 1.6 billion euros to pay the imf next month.
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we will talk about this and the ftse futures are dead flat. the dax futures are higher. the bond market and manus cranny cannot wrap it all up. >> we will kick it off with a look at this thing it moving in a shut and the dollar-yen. we have not seen this since 2007. we go to the opening after the three-day break here. they are all back online today and they're waiting for the dax to open. the ftse is up early. you have the ryanair numbers and up 2.5%. from ryanair this morning, look at that.


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