tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg July 20, 2015 4:00pm-4:31pm EDT
alix: stocks closing just under a record level for the heat, barely holding on to its games -- for the s&p, barely holding on to its gains. commodities take the spotlight. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?". ken ginny remedy turnaround -- mmetty turno around big blue? we are watching apple. will it be another win or a miss ? alix: the nasdaq is the story in terms of stocks, closing at a record high. could not hold on, closing relatively flat. seven out of 10 groups in the s&p did close flat. energy was a big drag. joe: energy was part of the
commodities.ff in gold, oiil smoked. wheat and corn taking it on the chin today. that's the other huge story we will talk about. alix: can the s&p continue to grind higher to another rally when it is led by things like utilities and consumer discretionary? joe: you have to wonder what underlying the commodities selloff. is it something darker on the horizon? alix: we will get into that deeper with gold. taking a dig into halliburton. earnings came out earlier today. this is the number you need to know. this is the number of employees in the company. a huge drop from the fourth quarter to the fourth -- the first quarter. part of that means halliburton stock was up today. oil tanking, but halliburton stock of because they are saving -- stock up because they are saving costs. net income versus employee --
it is a fall from the first quarter. they are trying to make more for the people they actually have. joe: good for capital, bad for labor. alix: exactly. it diverges from what we've seen in the oil price. will services companies have gotten really crushed because of cash cost -- oil services companies have gotten really crushed because of cash cost. this one is holding up well. joe: the s&p 500 divided by gold -- back in the late-19 90's, during the tech bubble, people were 90's, duringte-19 the tech bubble, people were really optimistic. we had the bad first decade of the century. stocks decline relative to gold for a long time. things were bad. people were negative on stocks. people wanted yellow rocks. the pendulum has been swinging the other way to last few years.
once again, swinging back towards humanity -- human ingenuity and away from rocks. stocks still have a long way to go until they are back. alix: love hating on the gold -- you love hating on the gold bug. but we are a far cry from where we were. joe: a lot more pain for them ahead. alix: we will be debating this in just a few minutes. ibm earnings crossing the tape right now. julie hyman is looking into the -- numbers. julie: slightly smaller drop than had been estimated. $20.8 billion is what the company reported, although that looks lower than the estimates i see. in line to slightly lower than had been estimated. earnings per share of $3.84, ahead of estimates, not unusual for ibm, or for most companies we talk about. the company says it does now see
a modest boost in its full-year free cash flow. it had seen an unchanged number. point 1%. is 59 -- is 59.1%. the estimate was 59.3%. it reiterated when it talked about before. i will see what else we can glean from this. this is the initial glance at the headlines. it looks like a mixed picture thus far for the numbers gross margin missing, earnings-per-share meeting. -- beating. wehther they -- whether they fallingmissed, earnings on a year-over-year basis. alix: when you take a look, what stood out to you so far? >> the analytics number stood out. it's about 20% adjusted for currency. cloud revenue is very similar to
last time. the sales number, if you exclude currency, it's about flat to minus one, which is what i think most people were expecting. joe: what's the story here? when you look at this quarter, are things looking a little brighter, or does this not answer any questions? anurag: i don't think it answers any questions. it's going to take a while before you see the high-growth areas, cloud, analytics -- those able to catch up for the following services -- falling services and software business. this is a very small portion of their total revenue at this point. alix: when you take a look at hardware revenue, down 32%, software revenue, down 10%, how much more juice are they going to have to have in the back half of the year to meet their forecast, which they did reaffirm? anurag: on the call, we will find out if the macro weakness in europe or asia had anything
to do with the purchase of .oftware or hardware in times of economic volatility, you do see people holding back and pushing it down in the second half. joe: are you seeing anything in the report that tells us about currency? is ibm indicating anything regarding that? 9% impact had about on the total gross. i think this is what they were expecting going in as well. joe: thanks to anurag and julie. alix: a chief market strategist is with us. greece is finally making good on its promise, repaying about $7.4 billion to the ecb and the imf. did we ever think we would see this day? it's been a long road ahead for this country, just a week ago teetering on the brink of financial collapse. >> it does feel like greece is fading for the moment as a story.
can greece stick to this program and stay in the eurozone? >> i highly doubt it. i think we wrote a piece entitled "there can never be a deal with the greeks," and that was back in 2012. the politicians just don't have control over the electorate, and you saw that with the no vote. i think it's going to be an extremely hard slog. even paul krugman, who has been on the side of the greeks the whole way through, says "i see an exit as an endgame." if your biggest proponent is saying you will not be able to make it, i guess there are not that many people on your side. i think we learned a lot about how european politics operates in the last few weeks, and it is a sort of ugly truth now, that exit israel. i think -- that exit is real. i think the market needs to go through the process. understand it is not going to be another lehman event because
they are going to manage it. then we could move on. then we could have an interesting to me -- interesting qe trade in europe. we call it the by the dax and dollar -- the buy the dax and dollar trade. it gets derailed when you have any kind of risk off sentiment. it could have been isis, china and japan fighting over each other -- fighting with each other over an island. i think it was a difficult period for that trade. alix: what keeps you up at night? for joe, it was greece for, like, five years. david: what keeps me up at night is how central bankers are ultimately going to get out of their great experiment. i worry a little bit about the fed. it keeps me up at night.
i worry a little bit about the u.k. i wonder how many bumps and wiggles we will have along the way. it's one of the reasons we left the u.s. alone this year. let's watch the exit from a distance. let's not have a big s&p position. let's move over to where they are just starting qe, where we kind of have a playbook. we saw what happened. the s&p went from 800 to 2100 over the course of qe. the dollar stayed very suppressed during that time. know, learnng we about the exit, then play the exit in europe, one in japan later. alix: we have breaking news for you we want to go to julie hyman at our breaking news desk, looking into news concerning kkr. julie: you have an ipo from first data, which is owned by kkr. the company had been considering an ipo. first-quarter net loss was $112 million. it was trying to boost its ebitda in advance of the public
offering. if the biggest that ever by -- it is the biggest bet ever by kkr. the company cost ceo since 2013 has been -- the company's ceo since 2013 has been trying to boost profitability. it has been acquisitive, buying startups, partnering with companies like apple. first data is filing for this ipo. i'm looking at the various headlines coming out. loss last year was $458,000. if doing a place holder amount now of $100 million -- it is doing a placeholder amount now of $100 million. we will get more details on how big this could be at some point. joe: thank you for the news. david will be with us after the break. ♪
alix: i am alix steel. joe: i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" alix: remember those gold go-go days? >> with gold at an all-time high, now is the time to send your unwanted gold for cash, lik e these gold cufflinks. alix: gone are the days of the golden cufflinks. gold has lost nearly 70% of its value since its peak in 2007. now, the portfolio manager for westshore funds, a gold glover and believer. and david is also still with us. in reality, look at that commercial back in 2009. gold is pretty much flat since that commercial played.
what does that say to you? jim: gold hasn't lost any value. what's happened is the dollar has gotten stronger. if the dollar is the measure of gold is down a lot, but make gold the measured value. a dollar used to get you a 1400 ounce.014 of an if you look at commodities around the world, they are all down. what we really have is a global dollar -- the strong dollar is deflationary. the fed wants inflation. how can janet yellen raise interest rates when she has a deflationary crisis around the world? joe: all of these commercials say "get into gold." and away you set it up is as a dollar story. -- and the way you set it up is as a dollar story.
jim: i'm not a gold dealer. i'm an analyst. if you put the chart again, what you will see is there is a buy signal. buy signal.s a last time gold was this slow relative to the s&p was a great time to buy. alix: i want to show the inverted u.s. dollar versus gold. gold's decline has been much more steep than the dollar, which said to me it is not just the dollar that is moving gold. what would you say? david: i think there is much more to it. whether you respect -- expect realtors to be positive or negative -- whether you expect real returns to be positive or negative -- there will be real returns on capital, technological advance and innovation. stocks are going to be a better investment than gold. gold is a zero real return
investment. it protects you from inflation. looks exactlye the same as it would on cleopatra 2000, 3000, 4000 years ago, whenever it was. if you believe in innovation, then stops are a far better trade -- then stocks are a far better trade. do you not believe in innovation? jim: i love innovation. i don't necessarily believe in the dollar. isrything david says measured in dollars. if the dollar collapses, your wealth goes away. i think that innovation is fantastic, but what's the best way to preserve wealth? you don't want to end up like those people in greece, lined up at those atms. it happened in greece, it can happen here. joe: pulled people have been saying debasement, hyperinflation, dollar collapse -- gold people have been saying
debasement, hyperinflation, dollar collapse. natural deflation and debt deleveraging. policy, money printing, currency wars, etc. -- they are pushing against each other like tectonic plates. it is an unstable equilibrium. it's going to snap. it could go either way. the longest peter of sustained -- longest period of sustained deflation, gold went up 75%. david: it was a time as well gold,money was linked to where the dollar was linked to gold. you can't compare a gold and are -- gold standard period to a non-gold standard period. jim: it was linked to gold. david: people had to pay back all of their debts in dollars
network originally met -- mark -- in dollars that were originally marked in gold. ultimately, there was a lot of inflation, which sent the gold price screaming higher at the end of the 1930's. jim: what sent the price higher was president roosevelt. it was his lucky number. it wasn't inflation. anid: but that is ultimately inflationary phenomenon. it sends you to gold. jim: nothing happens in isolation. the president raised the price of gold. they were desperate for inflation. we are getting to that point. we are in a very deflationary world. when the government becomes officially desperate for inflation, one way to get it is for the government to raise the price of gold. we might get to inflation the old-fashioned way, the loss of confidence in velocity.
if we don't, we will get there the other way, which is to revalue gold. david: if we look at periods of very sustained money growth, like the 1970's or late 1930's -- jim: money growth is like a ham and cheese sandwich. money growth is the ham. you need the cheese, that's the philosophy. we don't have that. that is psychological. alix: what's your gold price target? jim: it could go to $950. nothing has gone from $200 to $5000 without a significant retracement along the way. joe: did you bring us gets -- gifts? david: one of the pieces we wrote in early 2013 is "stocks " --for lovers joe: we've got to run.
-tonfound a 3200 discrepancy. this is why the markets have been so bullish. joe: where is the gold? alix: no idea. alix: they said that there inventory has been -- they said their inventory has been rising. joining us, with charts you may have missed -- yard 24 -- we are 24 hours away from the apple extravaganza. talk us through some of the technicals. >> the nasdaq has been hot. i'm not sure if it is new delhi or new york city we are in. the nasdaq hitting all-time highs in the comp. what's interesting is, lately, it's been able -- the army has been advancing without the general. most of the time apple is critical to the movement of the nasdaq and check as -- and tech as a whole.
that has not been the case lately. drivencally, to qqq is -- historically, qqq is driven by apple. joe: something's got to give. either apple is cheap or nasdaq overall is too expensive. steve: i don't think apple is too expensive by most metrics. overall is too narrow, too dependent on google, netflix, a few highflyer names. ibm is looking really poor. a lot of tech capex is suspect. it tells me the qqq needs to come down and converge to apple. joe: this chart shows energy versus s&p, i believe against the euro? steve: i would like traders to realize -- this goes far back, all the way back to the year 2000. ift i want to convey here is
you are trading energy, you are really trading the u.s. dollar. when you are trading a lot of things, you are trading the u.s. dollar. you may think you are not a currency guy or girl, but you are. your currency versus -- relative to energy stocks relative to the s&p. over the last 15 years, an incredibly strong correlation in verse to the u.s. dollar. dollar up, energy stocks down, and vice versa. energy stocks are having a hard time. i don't believe it's because the fundamentals have changed. i think it's about currency. joe: thanks for coming on, steve. alix: still ahead, adultery site ashley madison has been hacked. how much could the breach cost the company? the answer when we get back. ♪
alix: i am alix steel. joe: i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" on ashley madison -- before the break, we told you about an madison. ashley they called the breach "criminal" and said no company's online assets are safe. hugheson't miss baker earnings out before the opening bell tomorrow. looking for earnings to be down 115%, sales down 36%. it's all going to be about margin pressure and expected activity. we will have a good read through on what's happening on oil services and the oil industry. joe: don't miss chipotle earnings, always fun. it's a fun company. they tell you about the money