Skip to main content

tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  July 23, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT

3:00 am
is not the obvious. i will break it down for you. coming up, and don't -- a whole almost of earnings. including unilever. i will bring you the interview with paul taubman. seconds away from the open. stacks futures pushing higher. a by 100 points. nejra: let's see how the markets opening here in europe. after two days of decline. waiting for the stoxx 600. futures reporting higher. stock markets opening higher. rebounding from its losses yesterday. the absence stock exchange still close. the greek parliament approved the package of measures needed for greece is new bailout -- for greece pass new bailout. today we buy see the stock exchange open. do they want to put
3:01 am
restrictions, making the market more isolated? do they want us to exempt investors risking more capital flight? we're seeing the majority of the markets moving through there. let's have a look at some of the stocks that are moving today. earnings big on investors minds at the moment. credit suisse, second-quarter net income beat estimates, even though it's of investment -- that is rallying this morning. unilever, second-quarter sales growth beat estimates there on better-than-expected gains in latin america. finally syngenta profits beat estimates. strengthening the case for it to reject that take over. strategists pretty bullish on european earnings for a number of reasons. lower energy prices for one. of course, because of a weaker
3:02 am
euro. let's take a look at that. trading pretty flat against the dollar at the moment. it has been resilient during the whole greek crisis. don't rest on your laurels because a number of people say that may not last. comments saying the ongoing crisis will erode demand for the euro as a reserve currency. jonathan: it is about credit suisse. the stocks moving higher this morning up 4.9%. crushing estimates this morning. good news, or bad news, syngenta . he begins his tenure with a high bar. francine lacqua has been speaking with him about the investment bank strategy. -- you see the ratio going up.
3:03 am
tidjane: you see some sick -- you see the degree of some intensity. we talked previous incarnation the previous role has been consistent about the important of capital location. that is one of the most important things we do. 15% in the investment bank. strategic question about the balance if i say, we want to keep it more in favor of private bank. the capital efficient business. not to say that investment bank is not important. we want investment bank to be aligned with five at bank. something you see -- with private bank. something you see in asia.
3:04 am
we see clients for home will -- for whom we remain a corporate bank. we want to be the entrepreneur's bank. francine: doesn't mean you'll shrink the investment bank? tidjane: it means we will increase the capital. we will focus on the activities with a return on the capital [indiscernible] part of the debate and value creation. jonathan: let's talk to francine lacqua. great to have you on the show. what else did he say about the strategy. that is the question that everyone is asking. what will he do with this bank? francine: this is a question
3:05 am
that everybody is trying to figure out. he was very clear when he released earnings. he said the new strategy which he will unveil at the end of the year should address some of the pressures apparent in the second quarter results. this is what i was quizzing him about. he said in his own words, if you look at the results, it is clear that the investment bank is a weaker. if you break it down, it is about half. equity is doing very well. fixed income, not so well. this is one of the things people are joined to understand. there is speculation that he will focus on wealth management especially in the asia-pacific region. he would not commit whether he would trick the investment bank. he hinted that this would be one of the main points he would look at. jonathan: on consolidation, can we expect some acquisitions?
3:06 am
francine: if you break down the strategy, i think the main -- i think the three main questions? what happens to the investment banks? acquisitions? and what region will he focus on? he wants to look at acquisitions, especially in asset management. when i asked him, he was placed speaking he said he is right for the job. he needs to focus on egg -- he needs to focus on organic growth. he seems to have a very clear view of where he wants to take this bank. he needs his team members to make sure the execution is correct. he thinks credit suisse has a strong brand name. in asia-pacific he wants to be very strong. no acquisitions for the moment. that may change in six months.
3:07 am
jonathan: francine lacqua joining us live in frankfurt. she will bring in much more than interview through the morning. i'm pleased to say we are joined now by rich mckay. also joining us is the managing director of stiffler necklace. only look at successful banks in europe. what they have in common is returning to this core business. they know their identity. when you look at credit suisse where trenching. is that what people think needs to happen that retrenchment? >> that may involved retrenchment or it may not. it that's the difficult thing is when you look at the returns, what are the more permanent structure factors? how quickly do we get to a new
3:08 am
equilibrium. this cutback in capital commitment. we do need to get to another point. as users of fixed income -- that is at the center of this discussion on capital restructured. jonathan: were credit suisse is doing, a lot of talk is about investment bank. talk about debt trading. a great story on a majority of their revenue comes from debt trading. are they set to pull back? rick: i think so. retrenchment, i think the underlying reason for that has been a massive change in the regulatory department with much larger capital charges for the bank. especially affecting fixed
3:09 am
income and debt and credit trading. i think that is reflected here. it has been a process ongoing. some banks, maybe because they had to or have been more quick on their feet, made that change earlier, such as ubs. others may be taking a slower approach to this. some are still going through that. even though i would argue that credit suisse is a very well on its way. jonathan: rick, you and i can talk later about this. for the bank specifically, here we are six years after a financial crisis. europeans are suffering from identity crisis. they do not know what to look like. why would it take six years after financial crisis, looking at european banks and the u.s. banks carrying on doing what
3:10 am
they do? rick: they have a desk they have had other crisis in europe. -- they have had other crises in europe. it is been a real challenge. the response of european central bank is to -- they've had a way of keeping going without taking the very difficult choices that man been forced quickly on u.s. banks. jonathan: credit suisse, these are numbers. i guess for tidjane thiam it would be -- what would you expect his bank to look like? more like ubs? otto: the comments we have heard so far and away the industry is going if you would like to look more like ubs -- emphasizing
3:11 am
things [indiscernible] basically wealth management growth. clearly the focus there. the investment bank, you would imagine the focus on high our oe. heavy activities. clearly i am aware of the retrenchment in fixed income business. emphasis on equities, on primary markets which aren't as a balance sheet consumptive. jonathan: you have several trillion dollars you are older and the debt market as well, and when these guys pull back, whose problem is it? rick: a potential problem for an asset management is clients --
3:12 am
whose clients trade is more expensive. enough liquidity to get strategies executed. a sudden drop in liquidity and a sharp increase in volatility that will cause risk aversion. frankly people not being able to raise capital. we need to ease our way through. we do not want to stay where we are or go back to a. our go back -- or go back to a period of where we were 10 years ago. we're not trying to hold back the tide. we want it to be a controllable equilibrium. jonathan: isn't that more a problem for asset managers for the banking sector? otto: i think is a problem for the banks. not so sure that the theory of banks used to have much larger
3:13 am
inventories of fixed income product. in my experience banks did not really act anti-cyclical in their holdings. no investment bank was to add risks. -- no investment bank wants to add risks. i think it's a matter -- i agree that there is a need for a new equilibrium. it needs to be found among the buy side the older players involved. hedge funds that may have different dynamics. the banks and other players have to be in that new equilibrium basically. jonathan: it gets a little bit harder. coming up unilever beats estimates.
3:14 am
we will bring you our interview with the ceo after the break. prime minister tsipras pushes through more measures. negotiations are far from over. daimler releasing a 50% surge in profits. who talk about that after the break. ♪
3:15 am
3:16 am
jonathan: good morning and
3:17 am
welcome back. i am jonathan ferro. time to bring another ceo interview. unilever has reported sales growth at two point 9%, beating estimates. caroline hyde has been speaking to paul polman. paul: despite the things we have seen, the growth was very limited. the imf has lowered the global growth forecast, so we have to be mindful. the benefits of companies like unilever is we can sort off -- global risk. we see africa starting to pick up. six out of the 10 fastest-growing countries in the world. we are seeing humans of growth. it looks like there is acceleration there. latin america has always been strong and continues to be a strong region for us. some of their price driven --
3:18 am
despite economic challenges. although china is going up and down depending on which day you open the newspaper, we still see an underlying growth. where we have seen the slowdown is in southeast asia, countries like indonesia, thailand and the philippines. their economies are slowing down a little bit. india not being as quick and the rebound after the election as we expected. europe and the u.s. -- europe is a deflation for us unfortunate. we like to see them do better here it jonathan: caroline hyde joins us right now. a fantastic company. what else did he tell you? caroline: maybe you used a uterine at some point, you know this company. it was pretty impressive that
3:19 am
they managed to post 6% increase in the market. they're exposed to russia and brazil. the way that they are managing to fight this is hiking up their prices. the fact that you have seen depreciation, but continuing to innovate as well. they feel they could be getting 4 billion euros from online at the moment. they can't one point -- they can't pinpoint how much they get from online sales, because it changes every day. they could be escalating to 40% at the moment. i was interested about where their view is. you want to go into high-end beauty products. acquisition seven made. it is all about high-end beauty. that is where their margin is
3:20 am
going to be coming from. they do not want to buy ian g --did i want to buy png. interesting areas of growth. the online push and the fact that they are managing to do so well in latin america despite brazil's slowdown. jonathan: several years ago we talked about unilever and listing the strength. sylvia's later we talk about this being a weakness. that was not really the numbers this morning, was a? caroline: boom to bust. they get about 57% of their sales from emerging markets. i wanted to question are they still so set on going to china in? when they are seeing this sort of volatility. he said he is worried about the voluntary, and the fact that so many institutions are top the valuations. they signed a partnership with
3:21 am
alibaba. the move is to going to the region, get out of the main cities. expand. he is not worried about spending slowing, because they are coming from a base. they feel they can only go up. they want to become bigger and better in china. they are continuing to invest in china. also, europe is another area that is caught plenty of volatility. greece, he feels greece is not going away. we've got to ask ourselves deeply should we be helping greece out more? he feels greece that cut is something we should be looking at. jonathan: that is the consensus view. caroline hyde, thank you very much. unilever shirt -- unilever shrugging off concerns. goldman sachs turning more bearish on processing chinese
3:22 am
demands plummeting. oil has been edging lower for the past 12 months. ryan chilcote is here to break it all down for us. ryan: i will give you reason to reach for comfort food. this is the gold price. this is september 2011. gold touched $1900 an ounce. we are beneath $1100 an ounce now. one, they got a record number of short against gold right now. they think the price of gold is going to fall. more hedge funds than ever before are betting against gold. those are two issues to really consider when you look at the price of gold. it is a big issue across the commodity sector. across commodity company. anglo american is down.
3:23 am
it reports earnings tomorrow. watch the dividend. barrick gold. this is a company who is the largest producer of gold. its share price reached its lowest since 1990. john, back to you. jonathan: think you very much for the breakdown. state street global advisors. rick, great to have you. i see a 7% gdp figure. alec the minors it is that a six year low. what is the story in china? rick: i think it is about consensus. i think people knew that the emerging market economic growth would be challenging. it's turned out exactly as people expected. i think he expected that to be in the price, whether it is commodity price. people seem to be caught by
3:24 am
surprise by the fact that they actually were on a consensus. that is a little surprising. the commodity trends have been very sharp. iron, silver gold. including the safe havens that one might expect it to have done better in a. -- and a period of uncertainty. jonathan: when he took about participating, d have to go hard on the cyclicals -- do you have to go hard on the cyclicals? we go back to 2009, that was an ugly place. do look the minors in think i will have some of that? rick: you should not think about the mining stocks with the price of commodities. the research we have done indicates it does not take long before returns on invested capital begins to recover,
3:25 am
because people cut back sharply. you are seeing that now and capital expenditure. you might still see a weakness in the commodity price it self. one has to look out for these bargains in the commodity stock area. there comes a point where that internal -- begins to kick in again. -- energy, absolutely. there is an venture capital business and the shale business which is seen a sharp reaction. even in the very large-scale you have seen interaction take place perhaps even faster than previous cycles. jonathan: a final question on china, ray dalia what is your
3:26 am
view on that? it seems like a pendulum has swung from one end of china. what is your view? rick: we expect and endorsed the idea that the economy is going to slow. the second largest economy in the world. it has to restructure itself. you said that against this massive valuation. the a's share market was in a different spot. it includes different sector compositions. it has been attractive, even through this period ofwe weak economic growth. what is disturbing is the state intervention that we have seen. it has been endorsed. the fact that suspension of stock trading is something that people are seeing is a's positive thing that seeing as a positive thing.
3:27 am
china's government is very important to the economy. jonathan: the online continues in china. after the break we will talk greece. ♪
3:28 am
3:29 am
3:30 am
jon: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. let's get you up to speed where stocks are trading. we bounceback 30 minutes into the session. up 0.2%. the cac a run -- cac 40 up as well and the dax up 0.22%. the ftse 350 trading at a six year low. we will break them down for you here on bloomberg tv. let's get the stocks to watch with neera. >> i am watching some of the
3:31 am
biggest gainers this morning. shares hit the highest and more than a year after second quarter net income beat estimates. even though investment banking fell, it was management profit that came in better than expected. another swiss company -- the world's biggest maker of power grids has better than expected second-quarter profits that it will continue to battle slowing demand in china and the u.s.. finally, you deliver -- unilever told caroline hyde in an interview this morning that he will continue to expand in china. they had second quarter sales growth sing better than expected gains in latin america. jon: let's get you up to speed
3:32 am
on bloomberg's top stories this morning. after the central bank cut interest rates, the benchmark rate was trimmed for the second time in six weeks. further easing will likely be needed to address softening inflation. the new zealand dollar -- growth slowed in south korea as the mers outbreak ways on commuter -- consumer spending. in greece, it took him until 4:00 a.m., but prime minister alexis tsipras has one vote in element to secure bailout funds. tsipras: this negotiation process does not and here. after the approval of this last package, according to the gille deal
3:33 am
of july 12, we are obliged to negotiate with the same passion. jon: let's get some final thoughts on greece with the global advisor cio apprenticed or tsipras does not agree but he votes for it -- prime minister tsipras doesn't agree but he votes for it anyway. last night even varoufakis voted for it. how sustainable is the package and can it really be permitted? guest: what we would like to see is a relaunch for greece. economic reforms are probably the most important thing. fiscal squeezing may not be top of the list for all investors. i think that we need to see greece relaunched. these economic reforms that will make the economy a different type of economy are really important.
3:34 am
sometimes they become synonymous with austerity. that may not be the case. jon: we need to strip out the fiscal squeeze. the primary edge it surplus targets -- budget surplus targets -- without that you would not get this package through laces like the bundestag. -- places like the bundestag. does that speak to the politics? >> whether the execution will be effective is another question. troika might see that they have done what needs to be done politically. their ability to execute may be more limited than people think. jon: i had someone from blackrock on last week saying they looked into the greek debt. they thought maybe the headlines were overly negative. did you look at it in a similar fashion? guest: we haven't been active in greek debt as wall -- at all.
3:35 am
we don't take positions. jon: would you look at spain and italy that falls into your universe. when you look at the message they have sent, reflective now in the polls, do you look at spain and italy more differently? guest: we have always thought about them differently between one another. spain has a more effective reform program and italy has been a little bit more trouble. the periphery spreads have become attractive. we have been long on some of the spreads on a short data basis. we will be the ones to benefit from that political improvement. jon: do you go long on italy over spain? guest: we prefer one or the other but it is a fine margin. jon: the liquidity premium in
3:36 am
italy -- is there one? guest: i think the premier are very hard to detect. we have many equity investors who want to earn the liquidity premium. you have to assume you are not earning much. jon: back to the fixed income discussion, when you see commodities trading even lower the trade in q1 as oil crashed the deal now is we move closer to a rate hike in places like the u.s. and the bank of england. do i follow the rhetoric out of the central bank or do i follow the commodity market? guest: i would be more inclined to follow the central bank but i think we do have a demand problem globally. i don't think the conditions put us in the emergency room. i think that there are reasons
3:37 am
why the federal reserve may increase in september. the fact that the asset story is a risk and why he behind the curve is still a risk. we are trying to put rates of the higher. jon: do we move higher with rates in september or december and does it matter at all? guest: it matters to a lot of people but september would be more likely for us. jon: does it matter to you? guest: not in the eyes of our longer investors. jon: thank you for joining us this morning. here is a picture of the markets. equity markets 27 minutes into the session. the equity benchmark in germany and the dax up by 16 points this morning. the ftse 350 mining index trading at a six year low. profit jumps more than 50% while
3:38 am
earnings at large fall. after the break. ♪
3:39 am
3:40 am
jon: good morning. welcome back to bloomberg tv. greek lawmakers have approved a second wave of measures demanded by creditors. prime minister alexis tsipras called on greeks to make the sacrifices needed to stay in the euro. it will simplify court decisions
3:41 am
and impose eu rules on failing banks. the dollar loses by as much as 2% after the central bank cut interest rates the central bank says that further easing may be necessary. growth slowed in south korea as that mers outbreak weighed on consumer spending. gdp came in at 2% year on year. let's talk cars. second quarter operating profit has jumped 54% beating analyst connections as mercedes-benz outpaced rival luxury car brands in china. let's talk to chris in berlin. great to have you with us. you look at china and a lot of people will be asking the question, how have dime a done with a halved -- daimler done what they have done?
3:42 am
reporter: the secret last has been growing really well and the s class does really well in china. than a have suv's coming out this year. new products hitting chinese tastes. more than 30% in the second quarter of china and that is something that rivals cannot match. jon: as far as you are concerned, do you think they can keep up the pace? >> that is the? and i think that is one of -- that is the question mark. i think that is one of the reasons markets are restrained. if you look at daimler's performance over the last few years it is something of a comeback. it dropped to third behind audi in global sales.
3:43 am
it is doing really well right now and is still number three. it is nipping at audi's heels. the question mark is can they sustain it as profitably as they have done? just to put it in perspective, the 10.5% margin that mercedes posted is the best and a longtime, it is finally above the target level of 10% that they have been targeting since 2010. it has been a long time coming and it is here. so there is a certain amount of hesitation about can they keep this up? with the suv's they have coming online like the glc and the goe, the prospects look pretty good for daimler going forward. jon: traditionally we have been talking about daimler and mercedes versus bmw. when you look at the competition, let's talk
3:44 am
globally, how do they compare to bmw? >> mercedes is growing faster than both of them and they are really closing the gap. the profitability that they showed in the second quarter will be interesting if bmw can match that. the bmw growth rate has slowed. they don't have the newest products in the market and they cannot quite match the level -- the new products that mercedes has right now. it will be interesting. bmw profitability might suffer. it will be interesting whether they can match mercedes levels. the same goes for audi taking a little bit of a breather. for sadie's pretty good compared to the competition -- mercedes looks pretty good compared to the competition. jon: a huge morning for farmer earnings which means a busy sam of bloomberg intelligence. the headline i got to do not
3:45 am
suggest i would get that pop this morning. >> it is sales growth. they have a number of franchises doing really well. quite a lot of the drugs have beat estimates. the breast cancer franchise has beat estimates. the new drug that they acquired through an acquisition and a lot of people raised questions saying are you paying too much? the numbers you might have in your models and the company said, we think we are doing a good job and this morning the ceo said that the beat for this drug is driven by patient demand not wholesaler stocking. jon: i get excited about the top line, do i ignore what is happening with profits? >> so long as you stop at the operating profit level. it is slightly higher than expected tax.
3:46 am
like the swiss franc. it is strong -- we know. let's look at the other line performance. jon: the other thing coming into play for farmer is alzheimer's. what did we learn this morning? guest: this morning we learned not huge amount. they have two drugs potentially going forward and one definitely going forward into late stage development. they are to competitors in the same treatment area. one is eli lilly and biogen. it looks to us that eli lilly could be first to market if their trials are successful. these trucks are much the same in terms of how they treat alzheimer's. there is nothing out there that perhaps -- that helps perhaps slow the development of this disease. at the moment, the best they do is reset your mental capability.
3:47 am
they take you from a four to a two and then you decline again. we want to reduce the rate of that decline. ideally, stop it but that is a holy grail. these have the potential to do that. jon: did you get your question answered? guest: one of the questions was -- they have this other drug for alzheimer's and what are they doing? they are still looking at the data. we felt yesterday they had made up their mind but it doesn't sound like it. diabetes care -- i really good result. the second period that has been positive. there is a lot of pressure and reising. this in europe stabilized on new footing and they expect the same in the u.s.. that means that every division should continue to grow. jon: samper's alley -- sam frizzellazeli, as we had to the
3:48 am
break here is a picture of the markets. equity markets in europe up once again, the ftse 100 up 0.1% and the ftse 350 mining index just coming off a 2009 low. a lot of mining earnings coming out in the next few weeks. after the break we will break down everything you need to know about credit earnings and what is coming up in the u.s. in terms of earnings. ♪
3:49 am
3:50 am
3:51 am
jon: welcome back to bloomberg tv let's get you up to speed with some of the top stories. greek lawmakers have approved the second -- second wave of measures demanded by creditors. the primary dust or's called on greeks to pull together and make the sacrifices dated to stay in the euro. they will -- the prime minister called on greeks to pull together and make the sacrifices needed to stay in the euro. they will put euro rules on the banks. the central bank says that further easing will be needed to address softening growth and inflation. and second quarter profits that smashed estimates this morning.
3:52 am
swiss's second biggest bank that's want to profit after a loss of 700 million francs one year earlier. a busy morning and a busy day ahead for all of you. in 30 minutes time it is u.k. retail sales. and we have big earnings coming out of the united states including mcdonald's, amazon and gm. that is all set for me this hour. manus is on "the pulse," and sitting next to me right now. credit suisse. they smash estimates. we say what with the bank look like and will they have to raise more capital? unanswered. manus: he has not given much away. i thought it was interesting that he talked about tilting the investment bank. obviously it will really rip it
3:53 am
apart as in terms of dissecting the business. when he was asked, -- i think he said he is a physics graduate or certainly a chemist background and he said the mathematics involved in investment banking were quite easy compared to his knowledge of mathematics needed to run the business. that was a little bit of a mess for the investment bank. there is an interesting article from one of the shareholders overnight and it talks about the fact that he is not an empire builder -- their impression. when it comes to capital point, if you're going to raise it why are you raising it? could it be that he got an acquisition trail? he confirmed that he wants to organically build the business
3:54 am
-- there is a long way between now and november when he really gets stuck in to what he wants to do. jon: still having a discussion six years after the financial crisis of what these european banks should look like. but for the likes of credit suisse, going back to what you know seems to be the line. you have spoken to brady so many times. he kept resisting that line and these are his numbers. they are a huge beat. anything that says that brady did get it right in some ways? manus: it is probably one of those ironic moments were brady is sitting on the beach, hopefully having a break where the last quarter -- they set some big targets and he was heavily criticized in terms of strategy and not going hard enough or fast enough and this is the decision which is what business do you want to be? what kind of investment bank do
3:55 am
you want and will he go the ubs model? is he focusing on wealth management? changing the shape -- it is not that ubs doesn't have an investment bank, they have and a very strong asset management business. a lot of people are saying this is where he will potentially tank the bank which is making acquisitions within asset management, not necessarily acquisitions within wealth management. the question -- i will be in zurich monday and we will have a conversation tuesday. he talked about asia, you cannot avoid asia. that is where they go for the rich pickings of wealth management. we had a phenomenal route in billionaire wealth in china. you brought to my attention this morning, ray delly -- ray dalio
3:56 am
warning quite clearly on china. that all comes back to a much bigger conversation, the future of wealth management and building new billionaires within asia and china -- is there a risk? jon: what looked like a strength is starting to look like a risk and maybe even a weakness. manus cranny it will be on "the pulse." much more of the interview. stay tuned for that. 56 minutes into the session in europe, the equity markets just cleaning up against -- across much of europe during the dax pushing to a session high and we are up one third of 1%. bouncing off a 2009 low. the euro-dollar am a a 1.10 -- the euro-dollar, a 1.10 print this morning.
3:57 am
best of luck for the rest of your day. ♪
3:58 am
3:59 am
4:00 am
manus: sweet success here to switzerland's second-biggest bank smashes second-quarter estimates. the company's new ceo tells us why he is looking forward to higher interest rates. >> the interest rates are fundamentally -- bank do well under various growth. higher interest rates are good for us. manus: parking parliament. the second package of creditors demands moving greece one step closer to a third bailout. but on the


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on