tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 24, 2015 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
moves with equity markets firmly in the red but well off session lows. take a look at where the dow, s&p and nasdaq our trading. the selling really picking up momentum in the past few minutes. 170% more volume on the we want to get straight to our senior markets correspondent, julie hyman, who is looking at this crazy market day. olivia: we thought stocks were making a run at a recovery. back towardeading if not the lows of the session, certainly closer to them with the dow jones off 650 point. it dropped more than 1000 points which was its worst performance since the flash crash act in may of 2010. taking a look at the property
throughout the major averages. do have something else like a flash crash that was driven by a program gekko unclear at this point if that was the case. a big drop then. a run at the recovery and right back down again. if you take a look at my bloomberg terminal, one thing we event watching is the effect on the price to earnings ratio on the s&p 500. as we were seeing markets continue to climb before the we have seen it back to october. not as big of a celeb that more significant a lot in the s&p 500. we can take a look at the map on
the bloomberg terminal, and the various sectors. it is all red. at one point we did have inhnology and the green -- the green, now down 4%. we thought it would be a round-trip up, but back down now. energy and materials leaving the decline. we continue to see this selloff in oil prices and copper prices after we had the big selloff in china overnight. continuing concerns about what chinese demand is owing to mean about the various metals. oil, copper trading loyal. gold prices trading lower. --oil, copper trading lower. it is not getting a bid that you might ask act in this type of risk-averse environment. take a look at the dollar
trading at a seven-month low. not seeing any bid to the dollar down 1.7%. let us look at asset classes with the 10-year. earlier touched below 2%. for the first time since april. as we have been talking about all day, traders trying to recalibrate expectations for when the fed may raise rates. just talking to tony consents he -- tony consents he about that very thing. thank you. the perfect needed to what i am talking about. take a look at the bloomberg terminal. the current in-flight quality curve, versus historical and volatilitycy curb -- curve. greenlight is where analysts now think it will go. the yellow line is where they thought it would go back in may. .ou see downward expectations three years 1.5% fed funds
versus almost 2% of the market saw back in may. clearly a lot of investors taking chips off of the table, reducing the bet the fed will move rate in september. also seeing this in the currency market. coming to my terminal. great story about the dueling dollar. the fed is looking at one dollar because the fed looks at the dollar versus the u.s. 26th biggest trading partners. versus wall street more focused on the dollar versus the euro and the yen. if you look at a dollar versus the euro and the yen, the dollar trading at a seven-month low. if you look at the dollar the way the fed does, against a u.s. biggest trading partners, the dollar near a 12-month high. absolutely, which leads questions about the lack of inflation we are seeing. for more on the markets, we are joined by tony dwyer.
quite a day. is the correction over for the s&p, or does this continue and have not found our bottom yet? this morningl in on the open. that was down quite a bit. ultimately quite a silly thing for me to do to call the bottom tick. all of the tricks we use in the context of the fundamentally driven bull market, they kicked off last friday. over 320. the percentage of stocks movingd in the 10 day average only 2%. these factors couple with a little-known thing my name -- my buddy gave me, the etf volume is in first. etf volume is a percent of nyse volume at a record level. clearly there is a lot of fear in the marketplace. each cycle you can have a new reason for the fear. the reason can be china,
,uropean debt crisis, whatever but human nature does not change, and certain things happen that surround a market low and those things are happening now. >> you bought back into the market when it opened, when the dow opened 400 point. how did that feel? knows changes strategy -- no change in strategy? --know, we advise internal institutional investors. a i convinced and we're fundamentally driven bull market, it allows them to buy the liquidity as people are selling and the stocks to own as they are going down. i is not made for tv, but would rather be wrong right away then right, because it gives the clients a better opportunity to buy the stock. what do you do about the currency volatility we have seen? ae euro versus the dollar
crazy ride. opening 1.13 all the way up to 1.17 and now back to 1.18. what do you do when you see a chart like that? panicarly there is market taking place. the market trailing off into the close going down to where it was in the opening. there is no question there is int we call a market whosh place. you cannot take an individual ick off of that. a month ago people were clamoring to buy the high market talks. now the dollar is weakening. i think ultimately will surround and create the low is when the dollar stabilizes. more importantly, oil prices stabilize. the low of the day during the afternoon and that is what killed it taking it to the opening low. olivia: no one does seem to be able to call the floor. what do you think it will take
to turn the tide? are you waiting to see the chinese government intervene to stabilize the equity market their? are you waiting for u.s. gdp to come out? what would it take to turn sentiment right now? >> i don't know that will even do it. the last time you had an energy like it -- energy market price declines came in saudi arabia late 1985 declared they want to retake market share so they were going to open up this biggest and produce as much as they can produce. once that happened, there was a response in the early summertime, and then you went back and retested that low. it will come from china or u.s. or economic data. back then what it took a saudi arabia announced they would cut back on production. i am not an oil analyst. i do not think our guys are calling for that. it will be an out of nowhere
news item. i don't know if that would actually serve to create the floor. what really create the floor will be the market has oversold enough it does not matter what the backdrop looks like, stocks become attractive enough, and we're close to that point. alix: fair enough. i want to talk about the correlation between commodity and stop. the five-year chart and the bloomberg world index. since 2012 commodities and stocks have divert. do you expect them to continue to correlate? >> you do need upon a man energy, or at least stabilization. looking at the other time a very the commodity prices in 1990's. the asian economic crisis on the back of weak commodity prices and strong dollar leading into it. it seems a little bit of a replay of that.
certainly the markets are getting is oversold as they were in 1998. back then you had a pretty significant diversion and commodity prices. i think what is important about commodities now is we're in a service-days lever economy. interesting. thank you so much for your time. our thanks to tony dwight howard -- tony dwyer. alix: coming up, former pimco ceo mohamed el-erian gives his take on the market turmoil and the fed's neck move. -- next move. ♪
steel. alix: the dow is up by 610 points. julie: back down again. if you look at the major averages, we're seeing the fullback starts to stephen after epin and make a comeback. volume on the s&p 500 trading 130% above the 10 day average. wereer today it was double approaching triple. it has come down a little bit or slow down a little bit. here you are looking at the volume on the s&p 500, and obviously we're not finished out the session and the volume is approaching the full day spray -- spikes in volume. the selling is indeed on heavy volume. another market indicator are the 52 week lows. this goes back a year on the s&p 500. right now we have 100 82 week
lows versus two 52-week high. we -- they were touched at some point during the session. an acceleration of the 52-week lows versus highs over the past couple of months. we definitely have had a number tradersegist, technical pointing to this among other things as one of the reasons they were looking for a potential pullback. ixke a look at the six -- v especially if you have the very biggest level. today of five 48%. vixvolatility on the incredible. it had trouble opening for the first half hour after the regular trading session because they were so many imbalances within the volatility market. here you are looking at the five-year chart to show you we are looking at a jump in volatility but below the last
week spike of 2011. apple one we have been watching very close today because it was higher for a little while and now back down again. a lot of the momentum stocks seeing similar action today. september, december, how about 2016? the fed is not talking about the future traders are. this basically looks of the and pride of a bad move in september. fedat the volatility of a move in september. take it back to july, and that was a 40% move in september. of the probability of three months ago. for more on whether this will impact the fed thinking, i want to bring in mohamed el-erian, a chief economic advisor at elian. thank you for joining us.
with all the market volatility does this take a september rate hike off the table? .> it reduces the significantly if the volatility continues, which it will, the fed will be very cautious and not fuel further volatility. willch circumstances, it most likely weight and not initiate their interest rate ankle in september. alix: plenty think it will out tobarclays moved march of september 2016 -- 2 march 2016 from september 2015. >> i think march is a good call. the economy will benefit from lower interest rates. that will fuel underlying strength of the economy does have. the big western is how much damage are we doing to the wealth effect and to what extent will external demand collapsed yet home we cannot answer that
question yet. is still aseptember possibility, but september unlikely to happen. >> bringing forward a rate hike call. i wonder if she is regrading it now. you said earlier this morning the selloff that is picking up momentum, the dow back down 600 points right now, that the selloff will turn around once there is a policy circuit breaker put in place. select with that look right yet the global assessment intervention look like? >> it is very important that ,ithout and it's rental anchor this market will continue to selloff, and what you have seen today on very heavy volume and the amazing almost 1000 point range and fluctuation is there are still white a few people struck in over -- stock and over extended positions. have that muchot conviction and that is why we're
selling off again. we need the external anchor them otherwise prices will have to go down a lot more. ?hat can that be unfortunately not the fed or ecb. this one is different. this is from the emerging world. what you need is something that stabilizes the emerging markets over there. that means china. you need something credible from china to act as the data laser. like--uld that look alix: what would that look like we have seen them try different things. olivia: they have even devalue the currency. the devaluing of the currency of the time was good in the medium-term beverly that in the short term, because it added to the instability. you have to understand the regime we have been in. that is until banks repressing volatility.
the minute you have essential markets doing crazy things it becomes very difficult to keep that from spreading to the system, and that is what has happened. the reason why i tell people to be cautious, because i do not think china can come up that easily with a solution overnight. they face a very complicated situation. the financial radar -- the financial economy is not the only thing on their radar. at a muchring adam oate lower level than people have expected. olivia: some say investors were out of their skis on investment, this will what happened to a rate hike. other status of volatility coming out of china. people thattell a caused the global selloff. >> number one repricing of global. people recognize china with
weaker. china, brazil russia, turkey. very hard to find one large systemic we important economy other than india that is not slowing down. the first thing is people slight -- priced in slower growth. people realize the policy response in the emerging world would be lacking, and therefore, they realize you could not get a policy response fast enough. third, they realized the fed and ecb reduced a munition so they could not compensate for problems. the minute face -- that started moving, you get continuing deleveraging. volatility goes up and you have to sell more. we are in a technically driven market. >> the real concerns to be are we looking at 1998 when we saw asian currencies 41%. take a look inside my bloomberg
terminal. a very long chart and would require another 50% selloff in the index, so if we were going to match the 1999 levels, do we he it 00- see it? fixed8 you have a lot of exchange rate. now i have a few of those. 2008 was about the payment and settlement system. this is not about the payment and settlement the stump. --s is an old hashing old-fashioned repricing of things. one is growth is much slower, and secondly, policies are much less effective. that is what we're repricing and will do so. they would bring financial asset classes for fundamentals and in cases overshoots as is happening in the emerging countries. writing au have been lot about valuations, saying they are out of whack with fundamentals.
would be ifthink it equities were fairly valued? >> i think it would be a lot lower. i like to look at different companies. this has been reversed and recently. forink the key thing investors is to look for the following characteristics. buy into a company and countries with big balance sheet. second, well-managed areas, and third, a forward-looking industry, not backward. value being created. i think active investors will get very excited once the smoke settles that there is lots of value being created and a lot more created over the next few days. alix: can you narrow that down ? just youf sectors talking about it made me think of tech. lots of opportunities being created in new tech. there is a tremendous amount of cash on the balance sheet. let's not forget corporate
america has a lot of cash on the balance sheet. that is i am not a buyer it is the crisis of all racists. yes it is a very unpleasant repricing, and it will go quite deep, but it is not going to derail the economy in a major way. >> where are the opportunities in the credit market right now? see a major repricing of emerging market credit and investment grade, and high-yield. you will see the ability to finally get in good company's, is leslie the investment grade space. you will also see dividend-paying talks a lot more attractive. a lotdend paying stocks more attractive. the last few weeks i was telling .eople be more barbell take money out of public markets, but a lot of it in cash, and some of it venture and more liquid opportunities that
central banks have not distorted but be careful of the belly of the curve. now the belly of the curve is getting more attractive. alix: one of the negative effects of the turmoil we are seen, there is so much market -- money in places like pimco and franklin templeton, what happens when those people say i want to get out of here and that spreads and there is no bottom? what is the trickle-down? what will happen is what has always happened, these asset classes we overshoot creating long-term opportunities. these asset classes are investorsby two wrist or dollars. they come in crossing from somewhere else attracted by the yield. they are being pushed into the asset classes, and then when something goes wrong, like it to arrest, they immediately go to the airport. now theup we had, and way down which we have not. that will create opportunities.
somethingl discover we thought about -- we saw in the past and the delusion of liquidity. there is believed the market can provide liquidity when the paradigm changes. that liquidity is not as forthcoming as many believed. >> what would have to change to make you bearish on em? >> what would make me bearish is if it turns out the countries cannot raise on and importantly, if it takes -- west takes another leg down. europe will have to revise down the growth projections. the euro has been appreciating against the dollar and emerging-market currencies. that is not very good for europe right now. europe is losing the social extent that the mark. i am worried the next step, if you talk about the risk scenario, not the baseline, the weakness bills back to the advanced world, and then you get
this cycle. that is what people have to be very careful. the risk scenario, not the baseline. olivia: thank you so much, mohamed el-erian. prolific writer. his most recent piece about the anatomy of a market a lot just crossed wires a few moments ago. alix: new tech very stable in this volatile scary day in the market. olivia: that doesn't for me. i am going away. alix: time to go home and get some sleep. much more coming up bloomberg the dow off" on the by 670 points. the downside toward the close. we will be right back. ♪ ♪
wall street. picking up down side. julie: acceleration of closing -- selling as we get into the last half hour of trading. a look at what we have got, the dow 700 point down. looks like this could be the sixth worst point drop in the dow on record. above 15,000.tten the nasdaq down 4.2%. one,u take them one by look at the s&p first of all, and 87 point drop right now. at the lows of the session seeing the biggest declines. trading at the lowest since october of last year. -- the dow, the vicki big, huge drop of more than 1000 point. the dow actually earlier today was down the most in percentage
may 6,nd the flash crash 2010. still think the biggest decline since november 2011 and as low as february 2014. the nasdaq seeing some steep losses today. u if you will.n the selling accelerates down 4.2%, worst or mince since september 2011. the lowest price since october 2014. we want to look at how the market selloff is affecting energy stocks. joining me is an oil and energy analyst at raymond james. who knowsowicz everything about the energy markets. what is the bottom right now in energy stocks? >> the bottom in oil is in a costetical sense, where
begins to exceed revenue, so that might be $30. the reality is right now oil is not trading on fundamentals. yes, there is an oversupply the oil market, but it should not be below $40. in other words, nothing changed drastically in the past 30 days for oil prices to change 25%. ,t is psychology, momentum whatever you want to call it. this is still over correcting on the downside to a pretty severe expense. -- extent. alix: i tracked oil prices versus the s&p energy stocks four years.t they have differed stan the past year. will we see energy stocks take another 3% and keep pace with the decline in oil? >> certainly there is that correlation, you are right.
eventually oil is going to bounce. it does not go down forever. maybe something will come out of of china -- there will be something to resume a bit of a stabilization. , $30 per barrel probably a level where companies to get to physically shut off exceedscause cash cost revenue. even worse case scenario, very hard to see oil dropping below $30 or barrel. amazingly, we are not that far off. what has the damage into prettydit markets? >> substantial. there was a great story about samson energy, great company owned by kkr where the bonds have plummeted 95% so far this year to have to percent on the dollar.
billion and bonds. -- 2 billion in bonds. this company planning to file for bankruptcy. the losses are very real. today you are seeing in real the bonds of oasis petroleum down eight cents on the dollar in just one trade. if you can see these air pocket, people trying to sell stuff and nobody really on the other side trying to buy it. alix: is this the trigger for m&a we have been waiting to see or bankruptcy central? selling inll be more companies that you alluded to. is still a&a there bit spread. , but it is assets, not corporate level m&a, because the reality is -- reality is it
is still cheaper to buy a great than entire companies. a lot of the large guys that perhaps would be interested in buying in, they are facing austerity of their own, cutting capital spending left and right. it does not make a whole lot of sense to pay out for assets when the existing asset-based is being as under drilled as it currently is. down 25this year percent globally, down more than 50% north america. 2016 could be worse potentially the way oil prices are shaping up. that is not an ideal environment for consolidation. alix: do you think the signs the other markets are sending to oil is there is more to lose or it is very sentimental the klein decline? >> commodities are weak across
the board. agriculture down. a lot of it is because of china. i think because the recent drop -seven in the past by trading sessions is absolutely because of china, and that is affecting all of the commodity markets. if we look at supply and demand in the oil market specifically, any not think there is rational basis for oil to be quite as low as it is today. beuld not be 100, should not 80, maybe it should be somewhere in the high 40's, 50's. word is today down so much and such a short amount of time, that is a classic sentiment driven selloff. that who are the healthiest oil companies out there? at balanceto look
sheets. this is where we want to focus on dividends. those that are so a noble. occidental. 4.5% dividend yield with debt to cap ratio of 20%. that is a very healthy balance sheet. some of the other large cap like marathon, chevron if you want something very defensive. these are companies committed to the dividends, and one to invest but they are in austerity mode, so they will not cut back on spending. dividends are priority number one, then comes capital spending. expect ishat we dividends to be maintained by and large a long large cap producers, but capital spending could well be down, even after this years sharp decline because companies have to live within their means ultimately. alix: thank you very much, senior vice president at raymond james. , we have the dow
alix: welcome back to the i amberg "market day." alix field. 15 minutes before the closing bell. we want to go to julie hyman. stocks continue to deteriorate. not nearocks bouncing the low but around them. we are coming up a little bit from where we were a few minutes ago, but we have to wait for the closed basically, because we have had so much volatility.
if you look at the s&p on an intraday basis, you can see the bouncing around we have done. we have been trending lower, but then you have a leg up. really tough to follow the minute by minute moves and where we stand. if you look at the s&p 500, i have been doing my correction watch. right now we are down but we have been bouncing around all over the place as well. we want to he where we close out, if it is indeed the 10% pullback we had already seen for the dow jones. something also a been watching is the average of the strategists we have surveyed. we survey 22 of the top strategist on wall street, and they are looking for a year and close at 20 to 32. that is here and here we are down here. in other words, will we start to see revisions, or will use the strategists on wall street holding fast to what they think
at least from these levels, will be a rally through year-end. most folks sticking to their guns citing despite this pullback it could be a short-term one. a couple of short-term movers. one of them is netflix. seen so much volatility. a lot of the individual stocks have mirrored the overall macro moves. at the open we saw it fall by more than 10%. it has been all over the place as well. netflix being the best performer in the s&p 500 year to date. it is the big traditional stocks. general electric an example. 21% opening today and has been muddling along since.
pays 4.4% dividend yield and everything seems to be getting punished altogether. you, julie hyman. three americans and a briton who foiled an attack on the french train receive the country's highest award. presented president them with the word today. the suspect -- the suspect groups.inks to militant south korea has agreed to hold propaganda broadcast after north korea expressed regret over a landmine blast that maimed to soldiers. this came after two days of talks. new frontier for go-go, the company that provides wireless service for airline passengers.
they have gone clearance from the faa next generation connectivity service and will start installing the technology and 500 things next year. those are your top tories. amid a global stocks a lot, we are seeing extreme volatility in currencies. the u.s. dollar falling and the , and all of surging this is the shanghai composite got been you racing gains for the year. why is this so important? what does it mean? joining me to .iscuss is joe weisenthal you called me a couple of hours and you said the real story is the dollar. it is not about stocks. why? >> we had this incredible open were we saw the stocks lunch. the move in currencies was extraordinary. just do not see these in the currency world. currency world -- the currency world is not technically trade
like penny stocks. it reminded me of october 2015 in the treasury market last year. you would expect to see the huge move and treasuries. that is unusual stuff. was a great note talking about the currency saying is not about fundamentals but technical. if you are long you are going to short, a total technical reversal, not something fundamental at the end of the day. people can it, they want safe haven currencies, and the dollar is still clearly one of them. there was a huge, long position. the fed was on the urge of hiking, no one else was going to height. everyone else was going to pile into dollars. so the fact that the recent selloff and recent minutes have called into question pretty significantly the question of
the september-, you saw and unwind. you said two weeks ago and i was looking at the probability of a bad move, 48% chance of september, and now down to 20. to your point about the dollar. a genetic change in expectations for when the fed would lift off. the dollar is sensitive to that. that explains the selloff. it definitely explains why people are buying the euro and the yen and reverse of the trend. alix: there is my question when i see this. the correlation between currencies the love the stock market, what leads what? >> recently we've seen a selloff and everything in emerging markets. thehave this thing where currency is doing fine but when price in dollars, you see the big crash. the shanghai composite, often itsview has been that is
own little world and the world could rally in the shanghai fall. this is one of the rare times when people are saying they are connected. -- the end they are connected. alix: the euro-dollar only down 2%. stockperinflation of the market price of first be doing well. you really have to watch what you're looking at. alix: good stuff. joe will be back here in about 10 minutes to take us through the closed. don't forget to tune into what did you make? today at 4:00 eastern standard time. ahead, what to expect next .or the s&p technical levels of what might trigger a buy signal. ♪ ♪
losses after an earlier recovery with all three indices headed much lower. rather at teacher eli and michael regan. and i have done technical trading for years. i really wanted to get you on because i wanted to hear about the technical damage being done when everyone saying the fundamentals are still the same. of two underrange 40 in the s&p. i feel like everyone was complaining about the range .hing it does not make sense europe is falling apart, why are we still hanging around that so when we broke 2040, technically the last piece of the puzzle into the downside. we these we broke that last wednesday when they said we are not raising the rates. have been having stimulus for six years but the economy is more dovish.
people are like we are not that strong and the rest of the world is giving us deflationary symptoms. so we sold off. traders use that to sell guys looking to be short placed in there. now we have had the capitulation move into the 18-30 range, and that is the new point of reference. does this type of market where earnings season is over, does that become more of a technical traders market? less fundamental data? more of a market go >> the points and then what the market is a -- obsessing about. we're also assessing about asia and china and the shanghai. people trying to figure out is the shanghai market -- is the market the shanghai of 2000? it has some parallels. that does some damage. with earnings season behind it, points of reference because
everything else is an opinion. weakness in the russell. everything below the 200 day. you take caution and everyone will take a thesis based on the action. likee support level seems a level. how hard will they be to break book again? text resistance? >> there you go. we will see what happens. can we bounce back for 2000 and the s&p? if the market gets rejected, we would probably revisit today flows, and we might revisit today flows tomorrow. we don't know. we will see how asia opens up. the dax lost the 200 and average last week. out whaty to figure type of dow moves we could have. right now 12% off at the highs, which is really not so crazy
considering the size of the move we have. lls got verybu blazoned and complacent. spoiled is what i was looking for. brought up how the shanghai composite and nasdaq are mirroring each other. i have a comparison chart. i want to do what you see when you check a look at the chart. the green line is the nasdaq and the white line shanghai composite. how much more downside does this chart tell you that we have? >> probably support around 2900. probably another 300 points lower. i would think that is a spot probably if you are short in the shanghai duke should have covered this morning. traders usually use this. theere looking at 38 88 as prior well. that is what we traded again.
once you broke that unit volatility would increase in people would be aware of that. i think it is down to 32. that will be a spot you have to of.e trades off everyone has an opinion on where the market will go, but the market will tell you by us own action. 34% off at the highs, i would not be shorting but a trade -- bit of a tricky by. >> i wanted to ask you about the opening minutes. it almost seems like the freefall. what do you think happened? people using market orders in a being or was it quotes hit yet so what do you think ge down 20%. the jp morgan down 20 some percent. i think the momentum etf were down even bigger. the fix stopped working. >> a lot of fancy market. they put bids in and if they do
not want it, they take it out. an avalanche. people are like we could go a lot lower gekko people pulled the bid. for us, i had my morning call and i put bids underneath. i said what was the s&p prior to support? 1820-1840 from last october, so i put orders in the spider, and it did trade there. same thing with apple. >> pretty same thing with apple. >> a little early. same thing with apple. stick with things that have liquidity and a chance for buybacks. ,ocus on the s&p and apple which has been weaker, but 95 make sense. i hit a little bit below that. bits thata lot of disappeared. times like this you want to focus on the leaders. fourthe not the second
because they will not have this and no sponsorship so to speak. alix: when you come in tomorrow morning, what are you looking at ? >> i will look to see with overseas markets it. if we're down another 6% overseas and asia, chances are the market will be back down. maybe test today flows or not. volatility. that is what you do as a traitor. alix: thank you so much for coming in. mike regan of bloomberg news thank you as well. a lot more coming up. what did you miss? faber kicks off special coverage. ♪ ♪
alix: u.s. stocks providing no refuge from the global equity right as the s&p 500 added for its first correction in nearly four years. joe: a wild ride. the market plunging, diving, recovering from an diving again in the grips of a selling frenzy. we crunch the data on one of the most crazy selling trading days in years. alix: will get better when cooler heads prevail? possibility post correction. we have to begin with the stock market regular looking at the s&p off by about four points after one of the craziest trading