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tv   Trending Business  Bloomberg  September 14, 2015 10:00pm-11:01pm EDT

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of japan's monetary policy announcement. we have weakness in production and consumption. nintendo pointing -- appointing a 65-year-old as its new manager. .he company's basic direction let us know what you think about our top stories. >> that is the story that shanghai is playing out right now. the shanghai composite down by about 2%. the market is lower in terms of the equity market, but if you look at currencies, we have seen
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a reversal of sorts. that has had an impact on the dollar. it is now basically unchanged. let's zoom in to today's trading action. .he risk to global growth australia is a major trading partner with china. volatility emanating from china has ineased the risk to lobal growth. we will be watching the boj later today. as we look at hong kong, barely holding on to again right now on the hang seng index. it is up a fifth of 1%.
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those movers here today, china life among the insurers. china life leading at 2%. the flagship company leading the clients. among the property developers. on southeast check asia. jakarta joins us for the tuesday session. australia is the key focus, the change in leadership. malcolm turnbull will be sworn in as australia's prime minister . he is a former investment banker. he has pledged to build business confidence and to present a path
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forward for australia. let's get it over to paul allen. australia needs a bit of stability. how could this be good for business right now? if i take you back to 2009, when he was the leader of the liberal party. he lost to tony abbott by just one vote. the governing labour party self-destructed. the path was pretty much clear for tony abbott to easily win the election of become prime minister. he was never terribly popular with the public. communicator and
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to the business community, he does have real-world business community. he heavily criticized the economic record of tony abbott and that first budget that was handed two years ago broke every election promise the government made. they burned up a lot of clinical capital and never -- political capital and never recovered. the government has trailed in 30 consecutive opinion polls. with an election coming up on saturday and next year, they really did have to act. he was promising to build confidence, explain the issues, create a clear path forward. as we have just been from tonyat statement
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abbott in half an hour from now. the bank of japan due to announce its latest policy direction. it is grappling with an economy that is not working the way investors had hoped. >> there is room for surprise. i will get you the breakdown. efficacy ifm for they do announce. take a look at the most recent set of indicators. not everything was bad. in japan's case, inflation is proving to be very elusive. it has dipped to zero for a third time this year. the majority of economists, all of them, looking at the notables. 33 out of the 35. you throw this,
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forward. you ask the same group what they think about this question. this one looks vastly different. about a third think october or the end of next month is when that will happen. patients is warranted. back to what may happen. the breakdown of what the current stimulus program looks like. money the bojmuch is throwing out specific asset classes. a very small portion. just two things, i talked about this to economists earlier who think there may be a little bit of padding when it comes to the stimulus. research.he one from
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when it comes to bts, that will be doubled. it is about ¥90 billion. the other one coming from mitsubishi. annual target. not a lot, but room for surprise, yes. that decision should be out within the next hour. have thertant, we press conference that takes place midafternoon. if they do not move this time, watch for mr. crowe does assessment -- kuroda's assessment. this rough patch is due to transitory factors. rish, could come out this morning. rishaad: let's take a look at
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some of the other stories we are keeping tabs on. yvonne? yvonne: we are talking about deutsche bank said to be cutting as many as 8000 jobs on top of selling a consumer banking unit. sources telling us the new cuts would shrink the workforce by about 23,000 jobs. all staff. of it will cut -- affect administrative and technology positions. the co-ceo is pressing ahead with the banks plan to bolster profitability by reducing the companies swollen expenses and coming back businesses. a final decision will be made next month. he inherited a strategy to boost reserves by cutting costs by about 15% by 2020 and shrieking assets by as much a 17 -- 17%.king assets by
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deutsche bank has stopped short of saying how many jobs will be lost and where. , figures falling this morning after the company posted a $100 billion loss in the first quarter. things to slumping demand for tvs and pcs. profit also fell at the company's chipmaking division. the president promised a bold restructuring this month after reporting an annual loss. the tokyo stock exchange said toshiba shares will be put on alert from today because trust in the company has been damaged by the accounting scandal. meeting on plans a september 30 and will give a forecast for the current fiscal year in october. shares have dropped 42% this year. compare that to 4.5% gain for
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the topics. apple expecting an initial sales of its upcoming iphone to set new records thanks to demand from china. arerders for the iphone very strong. analyst have raised questions about whether the new models will be able to match the success of last year's release. apple did not give pictures -- figures for preorders in the first 24 hours. 26, that is the day of the release of the new devices. this is the first year china is included in the list of countries to sell the smartphone at its introduction. rishaad: coming up later on, why
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office rents may continue to climb in tokyo. days before the fed rate decision, we look at why they may hold off any moves.
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. rishaad: we await the fed decision. let's ask our new guest where he is putting his money. he has been ranked by asian money as the top regional equity strategist for 12 years. christopher, great to see you. let's talk about this fed decision. which way will it go? my guess is the fed
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will still not raise rates this month, but it is a close call. it looks like mrs. yellen does not look like dust is not want to raise rates. we will probably find out who is running the fed this week. rishaad: that would be instructive. how does it impact your investment making decisions? not really: it does impact much, in my view. if i am wrong and they do raise rates, the yield curve will flatten, not stephen on the epen on thet -- stephen announcement. i am expecting the fed to reverse policy. rishaad: christopher, let's move it back to this part of the
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world. you have been in beijing lately. what did you find, how much evidence do you see of a slowed down? what is the issue currently in terms of the thinking in people's heads? in china, there is a slowed down on the investment side of the chinese economy. it is partly induced by the chinese government. they are trying to pull off this transition to consumption driven growth. we are right in the middle of that transition. what made markets nervous about china is the deception of policy errors in china, the encouragement of the stock market, and the panicky rescue effort. a lot of it has to do with the credibility of the policymakers.
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rishaad: how much credibility is left in that case? hasstopher: beijing credibility amongst investors. the problem is some of the credibility has been reduced. investeda lot of faith in chinese policymakers. in terms of the currency, many people have been interpreting this move as a sign of panic driven by the week data -- weak data. the primary mover was china's ambitions to get into the market. that was the prime driver, not the weak data. the markets thought it was driven by weak data.
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as a consequence of that, i believe the chinese government is now going to be much more aggressive about implementing capital account control, trying to reduce capital outflows. they will hold the currency at these levels at least up to november and wait to see what the vote is, what the decision is. rishaad: what about from an investor point of view? as a strategist, how are you looking at china? are there opportunities at the moment? christopher: the trouble is china, the shanghai market, hong i am in terms of china, running china at around neutral. my big overweight in the
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portfolio remains india and my big underweight remains australia. on h-shares. rishaad: you mentioned india. are you adding more weight there at the moment? are you pleased with the way the administration has been dealing with things? he has had criticism for not doing enough. christopher: i am still constructive on mr. modi. as of today, india is a better story from a relative return aspect than an absolute return aspect. view, the indian economy is in the process of bottoming out. very except as a i would expect
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monetary easing. the major thing driving stock market performance today has been currency. i'm expecting the rupee to remain relatively resilient. my other big overweight in asia, the philippines and i have a continuing index allocation in vietnam. sheet. i believe that you do not think it is going to happen -- extra qe, that is. believe there will be more qe in the coming months if the japanese to come really concerned about the chinese economy -- become really concerned about the chinese economy. 50% of japan's exports go to
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asia. i would say 50-50 chance of more qe in japan. i do not think it will be implemented this month. rishaad: christopher, thank you very much. let's get to som some eastern countries remain opposed to it. germany's interior minister says a deal is in place, but it is only a first step. completed a fence along its serbian border. we are heading into a break. nintendo has named a new president. can a 65-year-old hr executive take on the competition and help falling revenue? ♪
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rishaad: nintendo has named a new president. tatsumi kimishima is taking the reins after his predecessor passed away earlier this year. tell us more. what do we know about this man? unlike his predecessor, kimishima he has a decidedly n o on-gamer.
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nintendo sinceh 2000. he will take over as president in two days time. he has quite high expectations to respond to. the shares are up 82% this year. they are entering the smartphone market and talking with universal studios. meet those kimishima expectations and prove that nintendo can make a much broader use of its intellectual property. thank what are the challenges facing him? the one right in front of his face is the entering into the smartphone market. we have a few months before they launch their service. it is an incredibly cutthroat
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market. it remains to be seen whether nintendo has the chops to make it there. rishaad: tony abbott is about to make a statement. ousted by malcolm turnbull. expecting the outgoing prime minister, a lot of clamor on social media asking why hasn't he spoken. he is about to speak. coming up when "trending business" returns. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,
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rishaad: here is a look at what we are watching you japanese -- watching. japanese chairs are surging. -- japanese shares are surging. trying to invigorate a lackluster recovery. the yen falling in anticipation of that move. almoste bank cutting by 25%. would mostlycuts come from back-office positions. the ceo took over in july. australia to get its prime minister in eight years -- its sixth prime minister in eight
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years after malcolm turnbull deposed tony at it -- tony abbott. the economy battered by the slowdown in china. statement anyng a minute now. let's get over to -- this is parliament house, the prime minister's courtyard in parliament house in the capital, canberra. expecting tony abbott to make this long anticipated statement after his ousting by malcolm turnbull last night. looking ahead to the fed decision on thursday. zeb: the rba minutes came out just a short while ago, citing the slowdown in china. abbott's speech and comments from mr. trimble,
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let's take all, look at the australian dollar. this was yesterday's move, steady upward trajectory. this morning, it started higher. now we are moving modestly lower after the rba statement. that is what seems to be driving investors and beyond politics -- investor sentiment, beyond politics. how are they performing on this big change, this big, unexpected change, if you will, in government leadership? what will it mean for policy, economy, business? asx 200 is down. that may not be in reaction to this government leadership change. it may be more closely aligned to what the rda is saying about the overall -- the rba is saying about the overall economy. quickly checking on the movers in sydney. kathmandu is up. devolution mining -- evolution
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mining, 5% move. u.s. oil is holding below $45 per barrel. agricultural commodities advancing. corn, one of the movers. i will leave you with that snapshot of the australian market as we and make comments -- as we await comments. rishaad: we have the incoming prime minister, malcolm turnbull, to be sworn in as the 29th prime minister of the country later today. it has seemed to boost business confidence and present a path forward. going to. turnbull achieve this, especially after the way he knifed tony abbott to get this top job? paul: that is always the challenge for an ugly, messy coup such as this. the boat was only 54-44. -- the vote was only 54-44.
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are plenty of people in the caucus rooms who did not want malcolm turnbull as leader. the challenge is for him to try and win them over. it may not be as difficult as one thinks. kevin andrews, the current defense minister, he ran against julie bishop and lost. he was on abbott's ticket, but he was on local media this morning, saying he would like to stay as the defense minister. you get others, such as the case of the treasurer, once identified as potential leadership candidate himself, now almost certain to be dumped as treasurer next week, likely to be replaced by scott morrison. how do you mollify a figure and keep him on-side? this is going to be one of the challenges for malcolm turnbull moving ahead. certainly, around the economy, we can expect the narrative to become a little more nuanced.
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now comparable -- malcolm turnbull promised respect the intelligence of australians. rishaad: australia's economic challenges have not changed. a lot of it has to do with china, which is way out of his hands, really. we are expecting tony abbott out. how is malcolm turnbull planning to handle things differently? well, you can't control absolutely everything. certainly, things such as china and the value of the australian dollar are well beyond the control of the prime minister and the treasurer as well. but the narrative around what the government is trying to do has been completely missing. two years ago, they presented a deeply unpopular budget that burned pretty much every election promise they made, burned every last blade of electoral capital they had. they failed to explain the case for why it was necessary.
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this is something that malcolm turnbull can change. he really is a supreme communicator. this is part of the reason why he is very popular with the public. this is an area where the government has struggled. joe, a couple of weeks ago, was addressing a room full of accountants and some of them were very disappointed in what he had to say, criticizing him openly, saying, "we have heard it all before. where is the past to reform -- the path to reform?" a whole lot of options get rolled out -- ruled out. these are things malcolm turnbull can control. he is promising to be more of an advocate and more of a consultant, not just providing slogans all the time. so, we will wait and the weather -- wait and see whether this boosts confidence. waiting for tony abbott to make an appearance. he has not been seen since his defeat last night. whichd: that is something
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has certainly been gaining traction when it comes to social media. thank you for all that, paul allen, in sydney, as we await tony abbott to make that statement. this is all creating a lot of buzz on social media. let's find out what some of the buzz is. reporter: we have not seen any posts from tony abbott since the sudden coup. this hashtag has been trending for the last day or so, since the southern coup happened -- the sudden coup happened. the short, but not so sweet tenure of tony abbott. we have seen overall a positive response when it comes to what happened yesterday. very popularbull, among australians, particularly among businessmen -- malcolm turnbull, very popular among australians, particularly among businessmen. tony abbott, not so much. this showed up viral on social
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media. shortly after this turnover, someone updated the wikipedia .age for sport in australia this is what it said at one point. "the main national leadership -- national sport is the leadership spill which fixates the nation on a random regular basis. -- basis." richard branson talking about this. he says, "congrats, malcolm turnbull. i wish you all the best and hope social progress and good governance follow." here is one from julia gillard. she was ousted after some bitter internal party relations in recent years. she says, "congratulations and welcome turnbull --
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congratulations to malcolm turnbull on becoming prime minister, a great honor and responsibility." rishaad: let's get back to the part -- to parliament. awaiting tony abbott. 24 hours ago, he had dismissed rumors of a leadership challenge and had said it was all canberra gossip. just hours later, he was voted out by his fellow liberal mp's. it is malcolm turnbull, the incoming prime minister. a little movement with the u.s.alian dollar, 0.7128 for one unit of the aussie. as we await tony abbott, let's have a look at what else is going on. looking at commodities and oil, recovering slightly from its fifth fall in six days. concerns about the china slowdown adding to worries about overall supply. investors have been warned to brace themselves for more volatility.
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more now live from singapore. what are people saying? scene is certainly set for more volatility in the commodities market. rishaad: sorry, i've got to cut you short. thank you. we're getting over to tony abbott. tony: there will be no sniping. i've never leaked or backgrounde d against anyone, and i certainly won't start now. our country deserves better than that. i want our government and our country to succeed. i always have and i always will. ine consistently said, opposition and in government, that being prime minister is not inend in in self -- itself.
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it's about the people you serve. the great privilege i have had is to see the wonder of this country like few others. and i want to thank the australian people for giving me the honor to serve. but this is a tough day, when you join the game, you accept the rules. i felt true to what i -- i've held true to what i believe, and i'm proud of what we have achieved over the past two years. 300,000 more people are in jobs here in -- jobs. we have signed free-trade agreements with our largest trading partners, japan, korea, and china. the biggest infrastructure program in our country's history is underway. a spotlight is being shone into the dark corners of the union movement and labour's pa rty union business model. we have responded to the threats of terror and we have deployed
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to the other side of the world to bring our loved ones home. stopped, we have been better able to display our compassion to refugees. and despite hysterical and unprincipled opposition, we have made $50 billion of repairs to the budget. that ise, there is much had still wanted to do. constitutional recognition of indigenous people. getting the kids to school, the adults to work, and communities safe. i was the first prime minister to spend a week and year -- week a year in remote indigenous australia, and i hope i'm not the last. then there is the challenge of domestic violence yet to be addressed. australia has a role to play in the struggles of the wider world, the cauldron of the middle east, security in the south china sea and elsewhere.
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i fear that none of this will be helped if the leadership instability that has plagued other countries continueto tank -- taint us. but, yes, i am proud of what the abbott government has achieved. we stayed focused despite -- of course, the government wasn't perfect. we have been a government of men and women, not a government of god's walking upon the earth -- of gods walking upon the earth. all, entirelyer measure up to expectations. the nature of politics has changed in the past decade. we have more polls and more commentary than ever before, mostly sour, bitter, character assassination. panic has produced a revolving door prime minister ship.
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your --brile need febrile media culture has developed the rewards treachery -- that rewards treachery. if there is one piece of advice i can give to the media, it is this, refuse to print self-serving claims that the person making them won't put his or her name to. honore to connive at dis by acting as the assassin's knife. there are many to think for the privilege of -- to thank for the privilege of being prime minister. first and foremost, i think my family for allowing me to be the absentee spouse and parent that politics entails. i thank maggie for her grace and dignity throughout my public life. i thank my party for the privilege of leading it. i thank the armed forces who are serving our country and defending our values even as we
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speak. i thank my staff, who have been absolutely unceasing in their devotion to our party and our country, especially my chief of staff, who has been unfairly maligned by people who should have known better. finally, i thank my country for the privilege of service. it is humbling to lose, but that does not compare to the honor of being asked to leaved. in my maiden speech in this parliament, i quoted from the first christian service ever preached here in australia. the reverend richard johnson, "what shall i render unto the lord for all his blessings unto me?" at this, my final statement as prime minister, i say i have rendered all and i am proud of
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my service. aslove for this country is strong as ever, and may god bl ess this great commonwealth. thank you. [applause] there, justy abbott making that final statement here, much awaited, long-awaited statement taking place at the prime minister's courtyard in parliament in canberra. let's go to sydney with paul allen. thanking everybody there. a bitter sweet -- or just a bi tter moment, i guess, for him. paul: he was very calm and composed, if you compare that to kevin rudd when he was deposed. he was very emotional, on the verge of tears at times. none of that from tony abbott. malcolm turnbull talking about how he will unite the caucus. tony abbbott saying there will e
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no undermining and no sniping. he had a dig at the labour party. there is currently an investigation under way into the involvement of the union movement and the labour party. he reiterated his success with policy on stopping the boats. the more attacked the opposition than he -- he more attacked the opposition than he did the vo ters. dig atd not resist a those who he felt undermined him, particularly the media. he said there is a febrile media culture. he urged the media not to get involved in that kind of thing in the future. he was also very daming of what -- damning of what he called the "poll-driven culture." rishaad: thank you, paul allen, commenting on tony abbott as he made his final statement as
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prime minister. the incoming minister is expected to take up the mantle as australia's 29th prime minister. just ahead, room to rise. we will be taking on the global property market with our next guest. stay with us. ♪
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rishaad: just about 10 to 1:00 in canberra. we've been hearing from tony abbott making his last statement as prime minister. the incoming prime minister should be -- will be asked to take up the reins as australia's twinighter minister -- australia's 29th prime minister. they are expecting the arrival of the incoming prime minister and the governor general, who is the queen's representative in australia. we are going to have a look now at the property --
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how office rents are moving in major cities. is's find out what time it with the president and chief executive joining us on the line from tokyo. after being in the doldrums for several years, what is the clock telling you about this japanese capital? two was last through tokyo years ago in 2013 and i've got to say the mood change is just remarkable. ankenank index -- the t index shows that confidence is higher than almost a decade. that is requested in what we see in the market, the demand for rented space. we are seeing healthy demand. rents are rising at a 7% annual clip this year, and they are likely to carry on at that pace until at least 2018 when a bunch of new stock arrives on the
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market, but the driver is very interesting. it is the increased level of business investment, the switch from cost-saving and retrenchment to a mood of expansion in the business community, which i guess you trace back to the relatively successful period of abenomics over the last three years. rishaad: exactly what is driving it? is it just sentiment-based, or does it have some real mettle to it, in your view? colin: it is fundamental demand. the office vacancy rate into is is at 3%.okyo there is very little slack there. companies are looking for expansion or looking to upgrade their space. there is just nothing available. by the mechanics of the market, that moves rentals up. this is likely to continue for another two or three years, until a rather large amount of development work is delivered to market. that will be in 2019 and 2020.
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have a: colin, let's look at what has been happening globally. we have seen chinese buyers move into all parts of the world, driving up property prices. are you seeing any evidence of that chinese influence when it comes to commercial properties in tokyo? colin: it is just beginning. there was a very large deal done by a chinese sovereign wealth fund, which we actually were part of in the earlier part of this year. capitaleeing chinese interest in not only japan, but also australia, significantly, and across the major gateway cities of western europe and the u.s. it is a switch in the investment process of the major institutions in china. it is not the only factor driving up rises and volumes, but part of a very large wave of equity, which is trying to find
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its way into the alternative class, in particular real estate, globally. it seems a good hedge in long-term risk in wholesale markets, but also offers quite a healthy real rate of return above the rates available in fixed income markets globally. rishaad: which is the hottest market in the world right now for you? colin: oh, gosh, there are so many of them. if you want to talk about tokyo, we are seeing 20% increases in the price of commercial real estate just in the last 12 months. we are expecting more of that. really, the demand is so strong for prime real estate globally that you almost can't go wrong at this particular point in the cycle. we are not in a bubble phase. we are not at the end of the cycle yet. prices have been moving ahead quite strongly across most markets globally. rishaad: places at the moment that people are neglecting? places to avoid?
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i guess moscow would be one of them. colin: yes, that is certainly the case. moscow and the major brazilian cities. amongst the rare economies not growing and having significant albums. transaction activity in moscow switched off early last year and until really engaged, there is some level of comfort and security around the situation in ukraine, in particular, i guess that will stay that way, but the rest of the world markets are in pretty healthy shape at the moment. rishaad: as we see more mobilization in monetary policy, the fed possibly raising rates as early as thursday, maybe looking a couple years down the line, when we have interest rates that are perhaps at normal levels, how does that impact your business? how does that impact commercial property? colin: our scenario, having talked to central bankers, is t
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hat when there is a start to this interest rate increase trend, it is going to be very slow and shallow so as not to shock the global economy. so, i think investors in real estate, as investors in most markets, have factored in that low, shallow -- slow, shallow increase in interest rates. frankly, we don't take it will have a big impact for us because it will be slow, but also because we are seeing this trend in tokyo, a global trend of rising rental rates. that will tend to compensate for any depressing effect that rising interest rates will have. it should be fairly neutral, and i think it is priced into people's thinking. rishaad: thank you so much for your time, the president of jll joining us from tokyo. that is it for "trending business." stay tuned for "asia edge." angie will join me to recap the biggest stories of the day. ♪
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john: i'm john heilemann. mark: i'm mark halperin. and "with all due respect" to the former host of "celebrity apprentice", hasta la vista, baby. ♪ mark: on the show tonight, the hillary clinton's lap and then make america great cap, but first joe biden -- this is a big week in the campaign. there's the guaranteed to be good for television republican debate and hillary clinton's poll numbers are raising real questions in the democratic party, and john sets it up with


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