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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  September 22, 2015 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT

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alix: i am alix steel. joel: i am joel weisberg. alix: u.s. stocks joined the global selloff. joe: the question is "what'd you miss." china's growth is slowing. alix: the market must beg for the fed to raise rates. if so, when?
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joe: banks decide how much money to lend. alix: the dow is off by 185 points. we were down almost 300 points at one point. the dow is moving triple digits for the 19th time. joe: that is incredible. a really ugly day all around. volkswagen, which we will talk about. everything spread everywhere, the futures dropping and never recovered. alix: it's not just volkswagen. it spread to the auto suppliers. i charted them. this comes from bank of america, the worst four. they get 17% of the revenue from volkswagen.
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i'm going to zoom in here. it's really cool. i can't do it. you can see that decline. joe: people selling off all kinds of stuff. volkswagen bonds, blue-chip company, you don't expect to see much volatility. the bonds have been very stable, and you can see in this chart. just a cliff. people selling everything. alix: i have something that you might have missed, platinum. it is at a six year low. china, supply issues, but platinum is used in diesel engines. if there is a question about the efficacy of diesel cars, are you going to use platinum to make them? joe: they just cannot catch a
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break. alix: that brings me to my deep dive. the oil price, that red line, energy stocks, s&p. oil's command of the market is huge. that correlation is picking up. where commodities go, stocks will follow. you are looking at a live shot of pope francis arriving for the first time ever in the united states. he has just landed in maryland, just outside washington, d.c. you can see his plane, officials in there, a line of cardinals waiting as well.
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joe: evebody is waiting for him. people on the internet were watching his fly pattern. he had to circle a few times because of storms. there is extraordinary interest in the event. alix: great stuff. he will be visiting new york on thursday, as well as st. patrick's cathedral. let's continue looking at the market. i was talking about the relationship between stock and commodities. joe: speaking of commodities, we have to take a look at the shares of glencore. it was trading around 300 share a few months ago. today, absolutely collapsing. i have not seen a stock trade this ugly in a long time. they did a secondary flotation, deleveraging, dividend -- this
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is like a true falling knife. you can see how violent it has been. it gets uglier if you zoom in on the left. there you go. 145 a few days ago. now at 106. extraordinary selling. it looks like death. alix: fair enough. we do want to take a look at pope francis. his airplane has arrived in maryland. we are watching officials there. there he is. he is disembarking from the plane. you can hear the cheers. they are loud. the cardinals have been waiting all day to see him. president obama and first lady michelle obama, vice president joe biden, all waiting to see him there as well.
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joe: there has been a lot of talk about the protocol for meeting the pope. in congress, they had to pass out rules about what to do. it is extraordinary. alix: this is only the third president the pope has ever met. this is a monumental moment for the united states and pope francis. what do you do when you are a catholic? i think you are supposed to kiss the ring. joe: joe biden, the first catholic president. -- the first catholic vice president. alix: vice president joe biden did not kiss the ring. he opted out. he shook his hand instead.
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he has a huge timetable over the next few days. tomorrow, a welcome ceremony with president obama at the white house in the morning. a papal parade at the national mall at 11:00. you can see the pope there shaking the cardinals' hands. dominic, a pleasure to have you here stateside. when you look at the market, what is your take? >> the fed did the right thing by not raising the rates, but there are a lot of problems out there. they recognize them. they have not fully recognize them. they can fully get things right, i think. two big issues, global liquidity, drying up, and china is part of that.
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inflation is too low for normalization of rates. joe: this chart shows the orange line is a measure of liquidity, and the purple line is the five-year breakeven measure that has been going down dramatically. >> global liquidity is shrinking because the fed has finished qe. a lot of other central banks, like china, now having to sell their reserves. joe: people are not so surprised that they did not hike. people seem blindsided by the language the fed used. were you surprised by that?
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the extent to which they continue to sound as dovish, did that sound as a surprise to you? >> a lot of people got it right, and a lot of people got it wrong. let's not forget that. they are trying to figure out what was the fed supposed to do, and they're trying to argue, perhaps there is a lot of uncertainty because they did not raise rates. there was huge uncertainty whether they raised rates are not. i think that is a huge problem. it is important for the fed to figure out the downside of inflation risk, global liquidity concerns. they have to keep delaying the raise until 2016, in my opinion. alix: deutsche bank economist see a hike much later. do you use different models,
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different forecasts? >> our official view was they would not hike at the end of the day. i think it is fair to say that it is a difficult decision for the fed. we have fed presidents that are concerned they should be hiking. it is an unusual time. the economy seems to be quite good. the labor economy is excellent. it depends on where you fall on the side of inflation. i have always thought that the lack of inflation is bad, so i put more weight on that. december, still possible they could hike, but i would not go out of my way and say it is 100% certain that they wouldn't. 20% probability is probably the
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right level. joe: you will be staying with us. alix: coming up, a reality check on the coal industry. that answer is after the break. ♪
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joe: i am joe weisenthal. alix: i am alix steel. before the break we asked you to get ready for the coal industry. group, payenergy zero dollars for an energy unit. they would receive 60 million if coal prices reached a certain levels. alix: you can see that coal is at a decade low.
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mounting regulation. joe: global head of rates research at deutsche bank, it can never raise rates, the fed, if they discount lower rates. they can only raise rates when the market is begging for it. how do we know when? >> i think you have to give the market a lot of credit that it understands things better than members -- and it would be good if the fed were not too shocked the market. obviously, there is a danger of that. some people think the selloff was because of the fed. we were going to go down regardless.
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the market will tell the fed when they are ready to hike. the idea of communications and being very open about communications. alix: what do they need to do? what would you need to see? >> the recognition of the problems out there is a good one for janet yellen. they should continue to recognize them until it is clear the problems have been resolved, inflation, higher wages in the u.s., and the problem with china. joe: the market is now observing itself from another angle as an observer of the observer of the observer.
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>> my colleague -- i had to read that a couple of times. making the same point, the fed has to think about its actions in terms of how it affects expectations in the market. at the end of the day, market expectations will determine if the fed can do anything. that the market is saying, don't raise rates, without the risk that things are damaging in terms of reaction. you could have had a big selloff if they had raised rates. alix: didn't we see equity prices rise, money come out of the treasury market. it seemed like game on. >> there is an issue around how the fed framed its concerns or why it was not raising rates. they said it was a dovish hike. one, i'm not raising rates
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because i'm worried about global growth and inflation. another dovish hike when you say, things are great, but i want more comfort, higher inflation target, higher nominal growth. if they had done that, equities would have continued to rise. there are ways in which you can do a dovish hike. at the margin, we felt between the two. joe: what keeps you up at night as you look at the market and monetary policy? >> inflation, excluding housing. it is falling, and will fall more next year. 60 basis points is all we have for export.
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joe: the fed is not there yet? alix: what if they don't go until 2017? >> it's possible they missed the window. what happens next? if productivity does not go up, we will stagnate. look at walmart. those are some of the issues. alix: thank you so much for joining us. thank you so much. we appreciate it. joe: how much is china's declining appetite for metals hurting other countries? ♪
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alix: i am alix steel. joe: i am joe weisenthal. it's hurting mongolia, indonesia, and kazakhstan. mongolia will suffer a 2.7 percentage point decline in gdp for every 0.27 percentage point in expansion. alix: that is a crazy correlation. the second part of our series focuses on a critical time for oil companies. banks will assess how much to lend taste on reserves and prices. crude is down 50%, so a lot of companies could find themselves in a big cash squeeze.
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>> out of the names in the index, we will see a three-year average default of 8%. that will be about 45 issuers over 2015, 2016, and 2017. we are well on our way here. we think that it gets worse before it gets better. alix: joining us now is ryan, a houston-based energy advisory firm. he has advised on restructuring. thank you for being here. what do you do when a company constitute comes to you and says this is my debt load. i am looking at bankruptcy. >> great question. it is one that we are getting increasingly, and one -- we've had a number of these conversations over the past year given where we have seen oil
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prices go sense september, october, november of last year. the first thing is what kind of liquidity position are you in? that is the first step. it is cash and liquidity that determines whether a company will be able to restructure and stay out of bankruptcy. we like to get a hand on capital structure and how much cash and liquidity is available. at that point, we have some ability to age how long a company can last in terms of trying to pursue out-of-court strategic options that may forestall having to file bankruptcy, which may have an offense, but at the same time it -- which certainly has its benefits, but at the same time it is an expensive process, can be unpredictable, and results in undesirable results for creditors.
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joe: the bankruptcy is undesirable for obvious reasons. what do you see as the prospect for mergers and acquisitions to scoop in and buy up cheap acquisitions? >> there will be mergers and acquisitions opportunities going forward. in the past 12 months, a precipitous drop in oil prices. the price of wti is closer to 65% from its 2014 hi, and we are at six-and-a-half year lows. they have taken advantage of what was a robust time in the capital market, february to july timeframe, and gone out and recapitalize their balance sheet, taking advantage of
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loosely written junior in dentures and layering in senior debt, converting the junior debt into discount, and sometimes issuing new debt in the market to pay down the reserve base lending facilities. that being said, these are the companies that are not going to be focused on mergers and acquisitions activity. some of the larger strategics, conoco phillips, shell, exxon mobil -- those are the ones better situated to take advantage of the struggling producers in north america. as yet, everyone in the category that i just described, independent north american companies, have been loath to sell at the valuations we had seen. we are seeing asset sales as a last-ditch effort. alix: these are the second liens for some of these.
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now the capital markets are drying up. six months, everyone was happy to shuttle cash to these guys. in the last few months, not the case. what brings the money in? >> what brings it in is some believe on the part of the private-equity investors -- we have reached the inflection point and we are moving towards a recovery. looking at what happened last year, 83 billion dollars or so of mergers and acquisitions activity compared to year to date so far, $12 billion to $18 billion of activity. march, april, july, so when oil goes back to 60, that's when they put private equity to work.
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alix: thank you for your time. ♪
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alix: i am alix steel. joe: i am joe wiesenthal. i think it might be the most-hyped watched emi ever.
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-- chinese pmi ever. we know the fed is watching.
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announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: at just 40 years old, bjarke ingels has established himself as one of the world's most inventive and sought-after architects. his current projects include a pyramid-shaped tower on the west side, a danish power plant, and working with another architect on the google headquarters. early this week, it was announced he will design the fourth tower at the world trade center. 2 world trade center will be seven separate boxes stacked together, and i am pleased to have him at the table for this first time.

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