tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg September 29, 2015 4:00pm-4:31pm EDT
. [bell] u.s. stocks closing in the green. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" waters.till in choppy in track for the worst quarter since 2011. scarlet: are americans feeling better about the economy? we have that chart. joe: and how women's participation is key to global growth, why it has stagnated, and what needs to be done to help it grow the economy. scarlet: we begin with markets. green for the s&p 500, a rebound earlier today. we now did get a late rally.
but there is a losing streak. this is the longest stretch 2006, the nasdaq closing at the lowest level since august. when it comes to health care shares, we hit pause, but biotech not dan well. joe: this was not an impressive day. you saw a lot of tech names get .it, apple, the nasdaq fell this is in spite that we had a good bounceback in glencore, that has been a focus lately. early this morning, we had goldman taking down the forecast for the s&p 500 for the year, down 100 point, acknowledging that they would not it the earlier target. so, we did green, but not an impressive day. so, i want to take a deep dive into the terminal.
take a look at high-yield. there are signs of credit vw, creditking at always leads. specifically high-yield credit. the white line is the credit, orange line s&p 500. the high-yield index has been making higher highs and lower lows, started to collapse in august. but the market cap gaining. the record i was on may 21. it did soldier on until late august. joe: this shows you exactly where they are. i want to look at my term of -- my chart. the u.s. economy does not look too bad. thispurple line, conference board consumer sentiment from this morning, this is between the number of respondents who said jobs are plentiful and jobs are hard to
get. many are saying that jobs are plentiful. that is a good thing. the goal line is earnings for production, nonsupervisory. and what is pointed out is that the purple line leaves the goal line, so if you're looking for when we will have the wage hike, this is another indicator it should be coming. as more people get optimistic about the economy, they perceive there are more jobs, then wages should arise. scarlet: we are all looking for that indicator. when it comes to markets, we are on edge. we are not sure if we are up or down. certainly, we are talking about choppiness. we have a representative from cumberland advisors, david. today we got low -- close , heading back to 2%. how does this -- how has it been different this time around?
david: we do not have rising interest rates, we do not have an inverted yield curve, and we do not have a slowing economy that is slipping into recession. those are the things that trigger markets. this is a confusion led selloff by central bank policies that are not understood and selective places, you just said it, credit leads. if you put the chart back up and look at the bottom, you will see a double bottom. bottom, see a double you have to ask yourself one thing, is there liquidity pressure so much that it will drive the bottom down to a new level low, or will that be the sign that says injury now -- enter now?
buy so you are saying stocks now? by halloween this market will turn and goldman may have to take -- joe: i love that he put a date on it, we hear somebody vague productions. you are saying that we can come back on november 1 and ask this. scarlet: we booked you already for october. everyone is obsessing over the fed, whether it will move in october or november, has not really reduced the balance sheet and will not do it before the rate increase. do you think it matters? david: i do not think it matters. i heard about the rise in the balance sheet. bernanke made it clear, we can take the balance sheet up, down,
take the duration long or short, and we can change short-term interest rates independent of each other. this is a new policy construction. he also said something else. he said negative rates are acceptable, implied was that they are spreading, which is different. he admitted that in 2008, he was afraid of negative rates because of the distortions they made introducing to money market funds in banks. he is not afraid of them now. he will say that in a meeting. it suggests to me that the other central banks of the world are accepting negative rate, he says they are working in europe. imagine hearing those words. i think that low, long-term rates, it could lower prices for a long time. joe: so you think other central banks are inclined to flirt with negative rates.
in the us, we will talk about the economy picture. i some measures we are not doing too badly, if we are looking at the measures, the blue line. fairly close to 2.0. you think that we are not far off the targets? david: i think the estimates are good estimates. they have a method that was developed and taught out. the fed is looking at them. it is inflation really a threat or are we going to muddle along between 1-2%? nothing wrong with that. nothing wrong with slow growth or recovery. what is wrong with 2.5 million new jobs a year, it is a wonderfully economy, it is not going into recession, it is growing. scarlet: we are not going into recession, but if you look at the official unemployment rate, you look at vacancies, how much
room is therefore improvement? will we get to 4.7% range? david: we may even go lower, the gap between the 3-6 is a something to look at. it has not closed yet. normal.der than you're going to talk about women and their roles in the lineup. look at the unemployment rate for single moms, women in households. there is a monster cap to work -- gap to where it was in 2007. joe: how much was this attributed to cyclical factors? that --e have data does but does not tell a story. we need to answer those passions. markets struggle with confusion, because they cannot answer questions. policymakers on it and oc cannot
-- fmoc cannot answer the questions so they keep moving dots. joe: do you think the fed -- raise,they broadcasted a now they have a confusing message. they did not do it. they are trying to piece that together and hopefully they will do it with a less confusing message, but i would say that hope is not a strategy. scarlet: what keeps you up at night? washington? david: yes, a horrible mess. only getting worse. scarlet: does the speakership matter to you? david: the change was coming. we will get to december and we will have all hollywood ghosts, out. -- come out. joe: thank you so much. isrlet: coming up, what line
♪ scarlet: i am scarlet fu. before the break, we told you about a chart. 2% belower is trading its average, under pressure from the drop and everything else that is going on, i have never seen a 200 day -- scarlet: this is a great chart. 200 monthly moving average will be our new phrase. joe: one company under pressure is one quarter. the stock made a comeback today, rallying the most, 70%.
they came after the company reassured investors. -- this is are think tank that has an interest in quantitative finance. a former strategist on wall street is here, you come to tell us about the markets. what are you looking at in glencore in the charts versus the tweeter feeds? >> it is interesting to see the new sentiment. one interesting point is if you look at the past six months as instances of new sentiment, they have actually been lower than the stock price. maybe it was leading at a certain point. joe: how are you measuring new sentiment? have you quantify something like that? >> we use the bloomberg terminals. and i have basically done a smooth version, to make it look less noisy.
scarlet: what should a long-term investor do with this information? >> the long-term perspective, the main thing is to understand your horizon. on a short-term basis, it could be difficult to trade day in and day out. where it is most valuable is when there is a big divergence between rise and what new sentiment is telling you. joe: another thing you are looking at is the euro versus dollar, what are you seeing? >> the interesting point is you see some relation between what is happening in the volume of news, how much is happening on the blog, and also market volatility, so it is interesting, this relationship. you think about it being intuitive, it works in practice. scarlet: what is the tail? >> it can be the case that often bigle write about -- before
scheduled events, the news could be an indicator beforehand. joe: what are the things he will look for sentiment wise, volume wise, that would say ok this is ready for risk reversal, what are the flags and warning signs that this could be a bottom? >> the new sentiment picking up, it has to be inclined, people stopped talking about it. the thing we are looking at from a systematic point of view, you can quantify that. -- saw that in the shanghai recently. everybody was talking about it when it fell, as soon as they stopped talking about it, the market stabilize. scarlet: do you break it down by positive or negative coverage? areas inare two parts terms of looking at the volume, the other part is the positive and negative. you get different signals from the two. joe: one of the big things is
the wisdom of ancient philosophers and what traders in the modern-day could learn from them. a traitor, there is a lot of turmoil, what is the lesson from ancient philosophers that traders in this market could use and improve trading? >> one thing i talked about was carotid. he wrote a book about -- herotetus --when thing that he said about the history, he wants to understand why all this happened? he wants to understand why are things happening. you don't want to just know that you are doing a trade, there has to be a rational behind all behavior. scarlet: as journalists, we are trained to think about the cause behind it. are that they do not worry about saying much -- are you that they do not look at that so much?
just made in two factories. they are expected to turn out 50,000 pairs this season, but it will not be enough. some sizes are already on back order. scarlet: last year's back order was not clear until july. joe: hopefully people still wanted them by then. scarlet: we want to move on. one way to drive global growth is to use women -- or take advantage of women -- that the not come out right. tina fordham shows how labor participation can drive gdp. if you look at this chart, we have the average labor force participation that has stagnated since 1990. we spoke with tina and asked why this was the case? reasons in different different markets, to meet a stark conclusion is that despite numerous advancements in the developed world as well as the
industrialized world, including many cases women and girls having full access to education, more women getting advanced degrees, we have plateaued. what is striking is that that is a universal phenomenon. one of the features of this report, and conclusion that has attracted attention, despite our best efforts, despite more flexible work and family policies, why are not women joining the workforce in higher numbers, where they not advancing further? joe: i assume there is variation by country, are there good examples you can point to come in these countries have gotten it right, they have seen gains from women joining the workforce? >> there are certainly some countries where you just see higher levels of participation, actually this is something true
in africa where many women are working in a number of latin american countries, as well. participation in the middle east and also india, for example. china is very different from japan and their of course our education levels higher in japan. features thatr support women working, such as extended families in the development -- developing world. scandinavian countries have more support for preschool age children and nursery provision. the u.s. does not come out well at all, as you would have seen in the report. what is so staggering is if we saw the uptick with women joining the labor force, what that would do to global growth. talk us through your findings, which countries would benefit the most? >> the potential upside is
greatest in those countries that have the lowest level of participation. this could be an appealing policy move for countries who predisposed toward immigration from outside. i am thinking of the gulf countries and japan. therefore, they can mobilize the domestic workforce much more appealing. another contributing factor, just small aspects of the policy, so reducing or eliminating the potential for second earners. you can tweak policy to help reduce barriers. joe: talk about japan for a moment, i know that it has been said many times in the structural reform agenda, they want more women into the workforce. how would you grade efforts under the prime minister's agenda? >> i was in tokyo over the
summer, one thing being done is ,hat i call a w deep 3 dialogue you bring together investors, administrators, and in japan there is such enthusiasm. interestingly, the audience was half males. at that has not been true of any other country where we rolled this out. i got the impression that everyone feels the commitment from these governments is a sincere one, it is an economic imperative for japan with a shrinking population to increase female participation. but the sense of restoration and that -- but there is a sense of frustration and this going more slowly. i saw that the gap was a reduced -- what would be the global percentage benefit? >> it would be significant.
it would be over 10 points. it varies by country. when you think about the growth constraints and the world we are living in, the u.s. growing about 2.5%, maybe less. someany european countries early or lower, to boost growth and a developed world by a couple percentage points, you will never get 15% for the labor , but if you increase levels you can see a boost of a couple of points. in the middle east, it could be much more. if thes why i wonder time for changing these policies to increase labor force participation is really now, when policymakers are running it is bullets, when -- actually expensive to maintain these barriers. joe: that was tina fordham. scarlet: breaking news, chesapeake energy is cutting 50%
scarlet: don't miss this. breaking news, ralph lauren is stepping down as ceo of his own comfy. former eight and m executive stephan larson will take over. if you take a look inside of my terminal, you can see that investors like this in news. a bit of a pop in the afternoon. a 3.5%, this move is on the