tv On the Move Bloomberg October 1, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT
by over 112 point. let's get straight to your market open. caroline hyde is standing by. caroline: we will take what we are given when it comes to china. they are stabilizing and a three-year low. but we like it. we like the fact that we are seeing stabilization, the fact that we are starting to see some improvement. still in contraction, still starting tot we are see some of those measures, not one, not two, but five rate cut. potentially the starting to stabilize the chinese economy, helping to push equities higher, risk appetite higher. we are following asia. what a rally we saw into the end of the quarter, up 2.5%, after what was the worst quarter and four years. ftse and cac up as well.
clearly a bit of risk appetite in the equity sector. we will have a little luck at the selloff in the euro. stimulus that's once again rearing their head into the front and center of traders minds. we are starting to see inflation in negative territory once again. that is really adding fuel to the fire that the ecb will add stimulus while we start to see the opposite happened in the united states, potentially a rate hike in the federal reserve. databer, manufacturing gato aplenty today. it is expected to be growth, coming out at 9:00 a.m. it is all breaking in your hour. and of course we have the likes of u.s. later today, expecting growth, a bit of a slowdown but still growth. the euro is coming off, and more stimulus from the ecb. meanwhile, risk appetite is hoping the commodity sector today. we are seeing relief in china
driving oil higher, driving copper higher, up by a tenths of a percent. watch out for those miners in oil giants. let's have a look at some of the other stocks. bp -- up more than 2%. minister ofu k, the the telecom sector in a report says he is a skeptic of ripping open reach away from bt. this is not going to be music to the ears of others, but it will be is it to the ears of bt shareholders. they are trying to funds that megadeal for cablevision in the u.s.. it is falling as a look to sell shares, but the ipo is selling off, not raising much money. jonathan: caroline hyde, thank you. 40 seconds into the session, the rally continues, ftse up by 77
point. over in asia, a two-day game. it amounts to almost 5%. shery ahn in hong kong is standing by. japan is leading the gains, leaving higher. this despite some disappointing data on the business sentiment, with confidence among large manufacturers worse in the third quarter, down from 15 and missing estimates. korea also has factory output data rising 3/10 of 1%. the cost indexes rising a tenths declining,rts also still slowing. it'sroline mentioned, positive sentiment we are feeling across asia. a closedom china,
today but without manufacturing pmi climbing to 49.8 in september. that has shown signs of stabilization, positive for markets across asia, with stocks rising for the second consecutive day. in newy decline is zealand, because the energy pulls the index downward more than 12% after interest sale -- from their closing price. in australia, the asx 200 is rising. and wenished higher, also saw the australian dollar strengthening for the second consecutive day after chinese pmi data came out with a surge. of course, two days of theirutive game in china, biggest export market. jonathan: thank you very much. sometimes it is hard to keep up
with what happens in china on the shanghai composite. if you are following glencore, it has been difficult. glencore stock popped over 7% this morning in early trading, ss, the a week of lo biggest daily decline on record with the biggest daily su rge. give it a little more context -- look at the chart over the last month. september, down by 40%. maybe the chart over the last month is the real story, not the fracture. that is what's happening in markets if you are struggling to keep up. heads up on what's coming up -- japan manufacturing confidence slides. i china slowdown may mean a japanese recession. then, a brutal quarter for markets. the imf chief christine lagarde warns of disappointing growth ahead. and twitter stock takes flight. the prospect of jack dorsey returning is permanent ceo sends it shares a surging. shares surging.
china's official factory gauge stable around the three-year low. just below the level which signals expansion. at an event in beijing, concerns were addressed about china's growth. >> as the world's second-biggest economy, it is not easy for china to maintain a growth rate of around 7% on what is a $10 trillion gdp. that makes things even more challenging to build a better future from this new point. jonathan: officials in china remain cautious about sustaining such a high growth rate in the future, but in japan, bad news for china may be good news for market. the largest manufacturer index found that the china slowdown could contribute to a possible japanese recession. japanese stocks are rejoicing. put it all together. let's get to jodi schneider in tokyo. is this a big bet on the boj
doing more before the end of the month? jodi: that's right. there is a lot of concern about a recession that some economists say. there is a lot of batting and hoping and speculating about what is going to happen, perhaps as soon as october 30. would be more stimulus added to the unprecedented amount of stimulus that has already occurred. jonathan: jodi, the big manufacturers are clearly losing confidence, and after yesterday's drop in industrial output, are we heading for a recession? where does this leave abenomics? he is talking about a golden age but it doesn't look so golden. jodi: no, not really. so far it has been incomplete and at some point, you have to get a grade. right now because of things like the manufacturing index, there is a lot of concern that there is already a recession.
stabilizingy on the of china manufacturing. there is a lot of concern about what happens here. the companies and corporate profits have been going back. they haven't been spending them on the economy and haven't been contribute into wage growth. that has to happen for abenomics to succeed. jonathan: jodi schneider in tokyo. they give for joining us. michael temple joining us now, at pioneer investments management. he manages $40 billion in fixed-income assets. and derek, at bank of tokyo mitsubishi. great to have you. michael, the boj took the fight to dollar-yen, arguably it hasn't really helps the economy in the way many people thought it would. how did they take the fight to what is happening with china into the japanese economy? it is that process just the getting to play out?
micheal: it's a great point. if you look at isolation, have you not had the flights of headwinds in japan, you probably would be in a different place. a lote certainly seeing of improvements, at least psychologically, in japan. you are starting to see corporate ceos attended to return on equity. you are starting to c.k. rises. unemployment has never been a problem in japanese situations so now we have a situation where you are starting to see that her actions on the part of the ceos, but in the manufacturing sector, they are having to not really deal with a slowdown in china. the number you saw today was a stabilization that we were expecting. it is happening sooner than we thought because the stimulus takes a long time to go through. it should help japan. derek, this is your chart -- japan versus the rest of the world. it is not pretty.
we don't know what it would be if the boj did nothing. that is worth pointing out. for now, when you look at what is happening, facing the prospect of a second recession, that is not good, is it? how do we turn this around? derek: absolutely not. if we did get a contraction in have had six quarters of positive and quarter on quarter growth and six of negative quarter on quarter growth. clearly it has not been good on the gdp perspective. i think we have to take into account the big, big sales tax increase that happened during this period of time. i would say going forward that perhaps there needs to be some greater focus now on the gdp side to try and get things going. i would question the second sales tax increase, for example. if you are talking about reducing overall debt to gdp, which is close to 250%, you are going to get that dynamic if you
can't get gdp up. that is where the focus has to be. but there hasn't progress in other areas. we are not convinced that the boj does anything. where we are seeing clearest indication is on underlying inflation. overall inflation is flat, but ultimately, core is trending higher. matchat its highest level last year, which was the highest level since -- jonathan: i want to pick up that thought. why are they looking at it as a done deal for the boj to execute on more stimulus? why do they see that and you see something different? derek: i think they are focusing on the growth aspect and what that means for inflation going forward. i would certainly except that is a logical argument. that perhapssay is they just want to give it a little more time to see how china plays out, how the emerging market plays out, before making a decision. what we're hearing is that the
message to policymakers as we like fx stability and we don't want further yen devaluation. jonathan: that is what it has for now. what it hasn't got is jpycmy stability. they may have dollar stability going forward. michael, have you been surprised by how neutral the policy response has been from the pboc? yes, they cut rates, but this hasn't been an aggressive cycle. they still have a lot of space to play with. pimco is saying the yuan devaluation could amount to seve 7%. derek: it would be difficult to absorb within a modestly percent 4% devaluation. you had seismic tremors cascade through the financial markets, and a real concern that china was going to adopt a devaluation pact toward better growth. but we never really believed that was occurring.
it may have been handled improperly in the sense that you can have problems with the stock market debacle, and there are questions about what they are doing on the currency front. but the reality is that i don't think china is at appointments economic development where it believes that a massive currency devaluation is going to help overall growth. to restructure their economy a bit more towards consumptive services. that isn't helped by a massive devaluation. our belief is that if they were truly trying to change the currency regime so that they could get acceptance into the imf program. jonathan: what question to you, derek, when you look at dollar-yen, they might have to but if theynowon don't move, are we set for an aggressive retracement on dollar-yen? derek: we were talking about
that earlier, myself and my colleague. if expectations continue to build the stability story, it comes with the risk of volatility the other way, for sure. what i have a soothing is that the u.s. story continues to play out, and is expectations gradually build, yes, you probably have a correction, but it went to be a trend as long as the u.s. story plays out. jonathan: derek, michael. they stay with us. thank you for joining us. , a brutal quarter for markets. a year to forget so far. lagarde warns of disappointing growth. more of what's in store for q4 after the break. ♪
jonathan: as we close the books on a brutal third quarter, 2015 is quickly becoming a year to forget for many investors. analysts have cut growth forecasts. it is a sentiment that has been echoed by christine lagarde. >> global growth will likely be weaker this year than last. with only a modest acceleration expected in 2016. emerging economies are likely to see a fifth consecutive year of declining rates of growth.
fifth consecutive year. india remains a bright spot. china is slowing down. it rebalance is away from export led growth. orntries such as russia brazil are facing serious economic difficulties. growth in latin america and in general continues to slow sharp. -- slow sharply. as emerging markets suffer, the picture isn't much better for bond investors, who suffered their worst quarter in four years, and there is no sign the pain will and. michael temple, director of the u.s. credit research, manages $40 billion in fixed-income assets. michael, a strong dollar and a weak yen. how far through that cycle are we? michael: i think we are probably about two thirds of the way through the cycle. you suggested that we begin to
see the fact that we were in the beginning of a bull market with the dollar back in late 2014. the idea here was that the u.s. economy would essentially diverge from a lot of other it developed world economies, as well as emerging markets. we see that story play out in 1990's, and we ask -- what are the implications for global financial markets? what we wanted to do was we wanted to make sure we were in areas of the world that will benefit from a strong dollar and make sure we had much lower allocations to areas of the world. clearly, commodities, anything related to dollar-based services and goods are going to suffer. the big question that i am getting right now is where does this and? -- this end?
do you end up with a strong dollar and a week everything else? jonathan: how does this end? we are talking about the bank of japan, the government pension fund buying other asset classes. what happens when the central banks try and pull back? are people going to fill in for them? michael: it's a great question. this is classic fund pressure. the person who was here earlier mentioned this. we saw this in the 1950's coming out of the second world war, with all the debt countries loaded up. banktially comes central said, ok, everyone is buying treasuries, and you can't own gold. we are seeing the same thing to a certain extent -- go out and buy equities, and we're going to bonds.we needobal to reflate the world . we are still in that same playbook. jonathan: final question.
we have also seen this ridiculous reach for yield credit taking a beating. for your fund specifically -- it is ago anything, by anything fund. for you, when you start to think it is time to pick up the pieces? the damage is done? or does it get worse? michael: this is a question we are debating very hotly. we began to get pretty conservative on credit starting in early 2014. at that point it was more valuation, so they were one standard deviation rich to their long-term historical average. it is never a good time to own credit in a massive way. have seener hand, we the same thing back in 2004-2007, when it was one standard deviation cheaper. how long will that take place? my concern was given the stronger dollar, which is a different thing this time around, credit will start to weaken similar it started to weaken in the late 1990's.
that what we have had is a pretty significant repricing and credit. it is now cheaper than long-term averages. the question is -- do we now start to go back into the waters? are valuations of safe? i would say in general your liking credit more. are looking at adding more higher quality, high yield credits. we think it is time to start dipping your toe in the water, not going out there and reaching for a yield, because there is a lot of uncertainty. but the real question in my mind is half we reached a period of economic stability? data today in china suggests that one data point doesn't suggest a long-term trend but you will see a rally, because people have been thinking the china economy is going one way. jonathan: will they? have to leave it there, unfortunately. thank you very much.
caroline: justin 2008, we saw jack dorsey ousted as chief executive. now seven years later, he gets his steve jobs moment. he gets to come back to the helm of the company he helped found. "recode" put up a headline that he is about to be appointed permanent ceo. he has been interim ceo since june, the top internal cabinet and there was so much speculation, and pleasure to make a decision. they have been losing product heads. have a look. the status of key executives needs to be determined for the decision is made. dick costolo -- will he leave the board? dorothy should continue as ceo of square? ceo of two big companies? will that remain? so far, optimism is there. but have a look at the share reaction. that drove 5% higher.
and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around.
jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." i and live in the city of london. let's get straight to your top stories. china's official factory gauge stabilized around the three-year low. the official index climbed to 39.8 in september as u.s. equities gain on the news. confidence is falling in japan. the latest survey from the central bank shows that the index for large manufacturers fell to 12 in september from 15 in june. adding to the bad news, concern is growing that the economy may have contracted in the quarter just ended, which will take the world third-biggest economy back into recession.
capital suffered a 3.6% drop in its main hedge fund last month. year, and 17% this unless cream i can rebound in the fourth quarter, it will be his first yearly loss since 2008. 31 minutes into the trading session -- what happened to all that negativity in q3? a second day of gains for the ftse 100, coming off the biggest day of gains in over a month. we add to that with 87 points. the dax is up as well by 1.16%. 70 stock movers out there. let's get to a few of them of caroline hyde. caroline: what is leading the charge? a volatile stock, but it is up the most in the month. -- theil up almost 12% lenders are standing behind it, helping to drive it higher this morning. the debt capacity remains at $3.7 billion.
they have been speaking with their lenders and they say they demonstrate continued support and a period of low oil prices. they say assets are made of high-quality. this is all down to a six-month redetermination, and it looks like the process has one out this time. tullow.stand behind company is of m&a, a being hotly pursued by arrival. -- by a rival. that k report in germany more pay for the board member seats -- they really want this. will the deal go through? at the moment we are seeing it inched toward the finish line. m&ahe downside, altic's
story is selling shares -- almost $2 billion at the moment. this is going to be sold in euros, 1.8 billion euros worth of shares. is lookinghi to buy a u.s. rival, cablevision for $17 billion. they have got to be able to raise money to do it. jonathan: thank you very much. the stocks i am watching our glencore -- a pop 7% at the open this morning -- what is the matter? it erased all the losses so far this week. quite remarkable. and pulled back a little bit since then, the third biggest gainer this morning, the stock up by 3.17%. this is after a ridiculous, choppy week. in other news -- urgent military talks being held between russia and the u.s. following vladimir putin's decision to launch airstrikes in syria. the foreign minister says his
country wants to avoid conflict, but not everyone in the states is convinced. >> the first instruction to us was to make sure that the military of the united states, the coalition led by the united states and the russian federation, to engage in some operations in syria very aggressively. get in touch and established channels of communications to avoid any unintended incidents. we agreed that the military should get into contact very soon. >> into the wreckage of this administration's middle east policy has now stepped in vladimir putin. as in ukraine as an elsewhere, he proceeds the administration's action and caution as weakness and he is taking full advantage. putin's ambitions are blindingly obvious, my friends. he wants to prop up assad as kingmaker, undermine u.s.
policy, and ultimately expand russian power in the middle east to a degree as i have mentioned -- unseen since 1973. jonathan: ryan chilcote is here to talk about the situation. ryan, a couple days ago you and i sat here and talked about a meeting between two presidents. putin returned home, called someone, and no one saw this coming. ryan: it has been incredibly quick. a very stealthy, quick buildup of russian forces within syria, and a very quick deployment of military power. the russians apparently gave the united states and nato one our notice that they would begin bombing. it completely unsettled the general assembly. everyone was discussing russia's actions in syria. tomorrow the russian president meets with the ukrainian president, angela merkel, francois hollande. guess what all the journalists will be talking about? syria.
this is the first time -- i took a look -- that russia has used his military, its air force, and struck a target outside the former soviet union in the entire history of post-soviet russia, more than a quarter-century. you can see999, them using their troops outside the former soviet union in kosovo. they sent 250 paratroopers out just after the cause war ended and it caused a big hoopla with nato. they weren't expecting it. same thing this time around, only vladimir putin is here, and the russian military is much more powerful. jonathan: historically, incredibly significant. the debate now is over -- ryan: we were talking about this yesterday. it is all about who are you hitting. vladimir putin told the world he is going to hit islamic state. the u.s. was concerned he may go after the opponents of assad,
which include islamic state, but also include a lot more moderate, if you will, opponents to his regime. yesterday, "the wall street journal" said u.s. officials said that one of the groups of fighters at the russians hit in strikes yesterday were trained and funded by the cia. the french defense minister said that the russians hit absolutely no islamic state targets yesterday. jonathan: not hard to join the dots. how does this develop? ryan: this is a sticky one. i daresay that the people who like to make the constant reference to the cold war will fit proxy war -- we are not there. we see a lot of western powers being very careful in their rhetoric, but very concerned about what vladimir putin is doing. effectively he is propping up assad. they are worried about that -- what will that mean for the forces they have been supporting?
how do they deal with russia going forward? they have russian forces on the ground, the iranians. the only people that are really wielding power in the region. jonathan: geopolitics just got a whole lot more complex. ryan: absolutely. what happens if you have a nato plane flying, and all of a sudden a russian plane pops up in the same space? jonathan: much more from ryan throughout the morning. up next, how glencore's tumultuous week makes greece look pretty tame. ♪
jonathan: good morning and welcome back. 41 minutes into the trading session. let's get you up to speed. stoxx 600 up by 1.34%, 50 closing -- ftse closing after a high. the dax is up by 1.2%. you might have woken up this morning wondering what janet yellen said last night and couldn't find it in the headline. that is because you didn't really say a lot. switch of the board. the fx market. euro-dollar at 11.49. on the quarter, advancing for a second straight quarter. the euro weakness of q1 is not carried into q2, q3, and some say it may not pop up into four. wti is a little higher this morning.
the take away from the previous three months, the lowest quarterly average prices since 2000 an0. -- 2009. the u.s. auto sector will be scrutinized after the vw scandal. for more, let's get out to tom in frankfurt. tom, what can we expect from these numbers today? tom: hi. analysts bloomberg has talked to are expecting a 50% gain industrywide in car sales. gm, ford, fiat chrysler will be doing fairly well. they have suv's. the big question is what will happen with volkswagen, and how bad will it be? they are split on whether volkswagen will fall. they think the brand will fall, possibly audi. years already falling this
that the scandal which broke out on the 18th of september will have hit the sales in the last half of the month. jonathan: tom, pressure coming from all sides. french pressure intensifying. relish through what is happening there. -- run us through what is happening there. ryan: the ministry in france -- tom: they opened a fraud investigation. they said they would widen carmakers. local minister,e economy said that they are pretty sure that it is respec restricted to volkswagen. another question is potentially clawing back cash to country subsidies, which were issued previously as an economic stimulus package. france would then join sweden and spain in checking whether they need to get paid back for supposedly cleaner cars. jonathan: tom in frankfurt.
look out for the september data. thank you for joining us this morning. if you thought it was hard to keep up with vw, the last four days have been tumultuous to say the least for glencore. shares in mining and commodities dropped almost a third of their value today. they aren't far off from where they started the week. so how dramatic has this been for investors? ryan chilcote has the story. ryan: one way i like to compare the pain is to compare greek banks and the turmoil that caused for equity investors versus the carnage that equity investors in glencore saw this past month. i call it, watch. -- i call it trauma watch. obviously glencore has always been and remains much more valuable than all the greek banks together. so it has been expensive
throughout, and glencore has gotten hit much harder than the greek banks. if you look at september alone, glencore lost $14.4 billion in value. the ceo of the company on monday alone was driving a loss near half $1 billion. for $2.4 billion is what glencore lost over the course of september, although it has come back a little bit and we can talk about that later. whereas that number was $4.4 billion last ess. so value is one way to look at it. glencore has been expensive. volatility is another way to look at it -- how much air half traders lost as the stock went up and down? you don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand the volatility here. the white line is glencore stock volatility over the last 10 days. it has been unprecedented for
glencore, but you look at the greek banks and it has been much less throughout. i think the surprise for me was the volatility for glencore hasn't just been for the last several days. in fact, it was for the entire but this temper -- the m onth of september. it was about 7.5%. in august, for all the greek banks, the average daily move was about 6.5%. it has been a very rough ride. a roller coaster, you might say, four people invested in glencore. we have also looked at applied probability for what investors expect for october and november. i can assure you -- they don't think the roller coaster ride for glencore shares is going to end anytime soon. jonathan: ryan chilcote, thank you. what to the dramatic moves in glencore's share price tell us about the state of the world economy? let's speak to bloomberg's editorial chief. simon kennedy, a good friend of
the show. simon, if you are looking for a share price that embodies the problem of the world -- simon: obviously the roller coaster ride of glencore's perhaps not the ones the world economy will have again, the people are starting to worry. peru,e the imf meeting in and they are saying they will downgrade the forecast. ityou look at glencore, affects so many important economies. 180,000 workers around the world, 15 economies. seaborne whate. -- wheat. zambia and south africa affected with mines. it is good to have a look when trying to gauge a sense of the world economy. jonathan: one story on bloomberg.com this morning, written by our colleagues, about how chlorinated glencore is just for copper.
you just have to take a view on copper. is it that simple? simon: perhaps it is. we did a story a few weeks ago on copper, saying it is the indicator for the chinese economy. if you take the copper price and divided by 1000, you get with the chinese economy's real growth rate is. that is a fun probability idea, that copper is the macro phd. jonathan: moving forward, where are we going? for anyone that has been following simon's reporting, over 600 rate cuts since the financial crisis. where on earth do we go from here? at what point you say 610, 620, 650 -- you can move it down anymore/ . simon: bank of america merrill lynch is estimating 602. what did the central banks do? you have the european central bank looking at pressure and
quantitive easing. that has been tried and bond yields are pretty low. haveiscussion economists is whether it is time for even more unorthodox monetary policy. you can either push for negative rates or you can unite the governments. still a lot of debt out there, but the deficits have come down. are the others going to have to step up as well? jonathan: the answer always seems to be more. thank you for joining us. talking about glencore, in the interest of transparency, peter grauer is a senior independent nonexecutive director of glencore. coming up, a lot of data still to come. pmi day from china. we tell you what you need to watch for the rest of the day and break down the numbers coming out of europe, next. ♪
jonathan: good morning. welcome back. 52 minutes past the hour -- here are your top stories. . china's official factory gauge stabilized around the three-year low pmi climbed to 39.8 in september. china and hong kong exchanges are closed today for holiday. russian warplanes carried out airstrikes in syria. the new comes two days after president putin called for a coordinated response to the islamic state. eight says it hit targets. jack could be back.
has reportedly selected jack dorsey to stay on as ceo, this according to -- he has been in the role on an interim basis since june. more top stories -- a lot of data to keep an eye on through the morning. pmi coming out of everywhere. in latin america, asia, and the u.s. as well. 45 u.k. time.: that is almost as for this hour. "the pulse" is up next. --us: jon, did you know jonathan: this worries me. manus: did you know that china's slowdown doesn't matter? jonathan: is that what they say? manus: they say that in france, jon. jonathan: i want what he's having. manus: france missed, we get
numbers at the top -- it is amazing how desperate we all are that you see a glimmer of hope. stabilization in china -- jonathan: 50 pmi. that is calledimanus: contraction. combine it with more quantitive young -- at some juncture, have got to call time. you have got to say the great experiment may not necessarily have any more legs. you have growth that is going to be less.i think the china story is stabilizing, chin japan staring down the barrel of recession. -- the- we like pimco yuan will devalue. at the end of the day, surely
one should be grateful if china is not growing at 3%. they devalued the yuan. a bit of a rough and tumble. then things improved. to that end, i think there is the eastern story. you flick over and you have the data from yesterday and u.s. pmi. data is coming out -- france is saying that the china slowdown doesn't matter to europe. it certainly doesn't matter to germany. we are getting pmi's there -- let's get out to mark barton. mark: 52.5, jon, was the estimate. 52.3 is the final for german manufacturing. that is slightly less than the original reading a couple weeks ago. the prior number was 52.5. we are below the estimate number as well. at least we are about 50, which shows acceleration in europe's biggest economy.
just to reiterate what happened earlier -- italy released its manufacturing data as well. the final figure was 52.7. the estimate was 53.4. that came in below estimates as well. france's figure actually beats estimates. 50.4 and thisas is coming from a contraction to an acceleration, because for the last couple months the french manufacturing industry has actually contracted. the takeaway is that italy is narrowly below, france narrowly above. what does it tell us about the health of the euro zone economy? the pmi is already telling us that the economy should grow by .4% in the third quarter on top of .4% in the second quarter. pmi data, there you go. jonathan: mark barton, thank you. that is it for me. manus cranny after the break