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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  October 5, 2015 4:00am-6:01am EDT

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>> glencore shares a third. there are reports that the company is speaking around. manus: the incoming chairman warns the omissions scandal could threaten the survival of the world's biggest carmaker. >> as george osborne prepares to address the conference, they are selling at 2 billion pounds to the public. welcome to "the pulse"
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i am francine lacqua. manus: it comes in just below the number. 53.7. the market survey was for 54%. this is the market eurozone services purchasing managers index. that is just a shade lower than we had anticipated. was about 50%. it is still in expansion mode. it is the industrial prowess of germany we are looking for. it has been called into question after we had the vw scandal. we had concerns about china growing. that is why every single piece of data we had is so powerful. now, glencore shares have sore this morning. we have reports that the commodities giant is talking to potential buyers. rocked in hong kong and is up over 10%.
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the company says it is not aware for any reasons for the movement and chairs. the bloomberg chief energy and commodities responder. up 70% at one stage. glencore does not know of any reason why this would ramp u p like this. >> if you look to us 10 days of the share performance of glencore, let's not forget we are talking about a 5100 company. they rarely move more than 5% or 6%. he is in the share price go down more than 50%. very easily traded. there are about 10 million shares today. it was a very good day of trading. hong kong got some perspective at last. more than 300 million shares of glencore changed hands in london.
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with a little money you actually can move the price of glencore a lot in hong kong. francine: it was down 13 -- 30% on monday, and then back up 15%. there is a danger that it may happen again. javier: i think the company needs to do a lot of explaining about its business. and what the plans are. the stock is very volatile. that until we see more from the brands of glencore to reduce its debt we will see a lot of volatility. the market will be reacting to a small incremental piece of news in a very large way. manus: exactly. the one please do know, the agricultural's nest. agricultural business. what proportion of that do they
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want to sell? where are we in that piece of information that we do have? javier: glencore is trying to sell a minority. my anderson is glencore with like to sell something between 20%, 40%. investment banks are putting out the evaluations. we will be assuming that those banks are pointed at anyone who might be interested. what are reported on friday was that glencore had some interest from two particular buyers we mentioned. the singapore investment corporation and the japanese trading house. francine: thank you, javier. manus: the omissions scandal could pose in existence threatening crisis. those are the words for vw.
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that is the verdict from the company's chairman. vw has until wednesday to some 2.8 plan to fix million dollars. let's be due nichols, who is in berlin. these are really strong words. the question is this. is this tokenism, or is this a real threat? hans: i think this is a very real threat. this might be an internal presentation. i will put the full quote up there for you. that is in existence threatening crisis for the company. the breadth of a couple potential solutions and another few worries. they are concerned a little bit. it'sncoming chairman concerned about what this will do to their credit rating. they don't have a liquidity problem just yet. you and i can figure this out on the bloomberg terminal. there are a couple keystrokes
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that can help us. there are 21.5 billion euros on cash and hand. the compare that to the 78 billion euros that they said they may need to ride out the crisis and then you get a sense of the challenge that vw faces. they have ruled out disposing any brands or units. nothing will be sold out. we are starting to see is nottire scandal, sector confidence. markel's said yesterday. i believe the reputation of the german industry, the trust in germany as a business location has not been so shaken that we will not continue to be seen as a good business location. numbersgot those pmi out. they disappointed a little bit, not a whole lot in germany. in some ways, i am looking to
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work tomorrow. that is when we get factory numbers for the month of august. that will not have vw in there, but it will give you a sense of where the manufacturing industry is in germany. over the weekend, there was the day of german unity here in germany. there were a lot of ads taken out by vw. they took out full-page ads and asked for forgiveness. he said, we want to say one thing. we will do anything to win back your trust. will, you mentioned there be a deadline on wednesday. there are many deadlines coming up for vw and they need to find a technical solution, as well as a policy solution. manus: we will see what they come up with on wednesday. francine: thank you for joining us. it is quite an ominous week because of the fed talkers on gw
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and german consonants. are you concerned this will have an impact on growth going forward, that it will have an impact on german fealty? >> the production in germany is 4% of gdp. that is the strict definition. if we say a broader definition could be at 10%, this could have economic on conditions. it is very early to say where this issue is going. we are drawing quick conclusions that are very difficult. going toe vw story is be in the backdrop of everything we talk about. the data that we have suggests that there is just that little bit of a slowdown. see athe reason why we negative rating on inflation last week. how concerned are you from the broader perspective for europe? concern for, the external risk has increased a
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great deal. i have to say, given all of this concern, the data we have seen so far was actually reasonably robust. the european data has held up respectively so far. data lastthe pmi week. it was reasonably solid. index fromiso germany. export numbers were up, not down. the european commission index was up as well. so here, so far, so good. francine: at the same time, you are benefiting from low oil prices. euro has been creeping up, but not that much. this may turn, but not very quickly. >> external risk has increased a great deal. you are also right. we have unprecedented policies been. fiscal austerity is moderating.
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all of this helps against this background. the disturbances from china are certainly not welcome. we definitely are losing some momentum. that the recovering europe is crumbling all of a sudden. manus: what other story did we have on the germans this morning? don't bet against the euro. that is essentially what it is. we are seeing the analysts move their predictions. some are moving to an average for next year. thehis, if we look at ranking of risks to europe, one is china. contagion commodity. in three is currency. >> we regard a hard landing in it is not the best case scenario. it is the risk scenario. one of the key implications of 's quantitative policy.
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degree if you're a poor to depreciate a lot more from here, it would give the ecb a headache. francine: thank you so much. k government has announced it will sell at least 2 billion shares. the public offered a 5% discount to the market price. the move is part of the plan to exit shareholding in the coming months. francine: the portuguese prime minister has won the nation's first general election since exiting the bailout program. he lost his majority in parliament and decisively defeated the socialist leader by
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focusing on the economic progress of the country. the economy is growing again. on implement is dropping. the fiscal deficit is narrowing. the greek prime minister will reveal his government's plan. including a budget for 2016. people debate the measures before holding a vote of confidence. balance creditors demands. his campaign promise to alleviate the effects of austerity. francine: the sunday times says they are trying to avoid upcoming eu regulations. only 1/5 of the operations will be affected and london remains attractive. manus: services remain shot among much of the riviera. both have been reopened. the freak weather dumped almost
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of rain oners saturday night. that leaves about 27,000 homes without electricity. francine: we have a busy week ahead with bank action. you will be looking ahead to that, next. ♪
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francine: will come back to "the pulse."
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later today, we get another read on the u.s. economy. that drops at 2:45. francine: overnight on tuesday we have a rate decision from the reserve bank of australia. on wednesday, the bank of japan announces a monetary policy. on thursday, we get a rate decision from the bank of england. manus: thursday, we get the 's policyrom the fed meeting. we are discussing from europe, the u.s.. what do you think you as a chief economist will be focused on in terms of formulating your thoughts? >> obviously, the first would be where we get the much harder deceleration and china and the emerging markets. be, what is the
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signal for the u.s. market of monetary policy? in an obviously, i want to see the next signal from the european central bank. hence, the minutes of the last meeting will be very important for me as well. francine: are you concerned that because of the week data we saw from u.s. on friday, the markets seem to show a positive, meaning the federal probably not hike in october, or this year at all, or is it really a positive? if there i -- if the u.s. is weak, there really is no other engine of growth worldwide. >> we want strong u.s. growth, but we want goldylocks growth. that would not unsettle the market too badly. first rate hike fight december. that will be followed with four rate hikes next year. manus: we will get minutes from
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the ecb. everybody is focused on the nuance of language in terms of will use"when" the ecb the discussion. there is no discussion of the moment. what will drive your thinking in terms of those minutes? ecb said, after its last meeting, they are following the events in china. are following the emerging markets very carefully. they stand ready to do more, if needed. they focused and stressed the current program. it is strong and flexible enough in size to make adjustments. perspective, this fully the medium-term inflation much lower. that is a clear warning signal
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that may push them to act more. un theect the ecb to r program in its current form until september 2016. we don't expect more easing in the short-term. francine: why? because of the moment they can sustain strength with the euro and a foam the perk on the euro -- and it will only work on the euro? e ecb will argue that the q&a will argue that it is a huge cannon. inflation has been stable and hence, more data will be needed in theify more qe short-term. manus: this is what we're focusing on this morning. relatedd central banks, to market credibility. this comes down to 600 break
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ups. yetexpectations of qe and there has not, been enough fiscal stimulus. that is true to a certain extent in the european context as well. that is where the ecb don't want to get sucked into that vacuum, where the fed is. bigurope does not have a deal of fiscal space. germany does, but most of the other countries do not. we have not seen a critical mass and structural reform. that means, if the key aims to lift the structural and out but growth in europe, you can throw as much monetary policy at this problem and it will not do the trick. you need proper reforms. you cannot do the trick on its own. francine: we spoke about the ecb and the fed. and then there is the outlook from the imf that is expected.
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what concerns you the most? if you have weak growth rub the you haveing fed -- if weak growth around the world and a week fed. boe does not react in isolation. it would have to react to a growth environment as well. we still expect the first rate hike from the boe by february of next year. so obviously, if we were to see a much slower economic outlook lower prospects for the return of inflation, this would be something the boe would have to take on. manus: thank you very much. the u.k. chancellor, george osborne, will address the conservative party conference in a few hours. 2 billions shares a whistle to
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the public next spring. what else can we expect from osborne today? we've already had one of the big announcements. figuresenior labor party will head to infrastructure -- will head and infrastructure commission. we can also expect more on tax c redit cuts. we have had a lot of protests yesterday and today. the message from george osborne is likely to remain clear. austerity is still necessary and there will be more growth patterns to come. manus: a very good day to you. europe is officially off the agenda. there is no doubt about it. yesterday, the alarm bells began to ring in terms of the references to what he would seek from his european partners.
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it is dominating the agenda though, isn't it? >> absolutely. there have been at least 20 meetings about the eu referendum. all of this is taking place behind the scenes. this is what cameron is pushing for. he is under a lot of pressure to spell out what he is seeking. they are making good progress. but what they want to hear is concrete evidence that results are going to be shown ready shortly. -- shown pretty shortly. francine: think you so much. we were talking about the boe. if you were cameron, do think austerity has worked? is there danger they will put in too much austerity at this point? he is not seeking a third term and has no real opposition. >> if we look back four or five
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years, they were very concerned about the sustainability of u.k. public finances. these concerned are no longer with us. has certain degree, there been success. the markets have never questioned the position of the u.k.. going forward, i think, if we have growth, we also have fiscal responsibility. achieving growth is the most important thing and everything else follows. of theif we look at two biggest issues for the bank of along with oil, prices on the drop. that has been a boost for this economy. that will continue to be there for osborne, as far as his plans for the moment. >> this is been is one bright spot for the plants in the past couple weeks. the lower oil and commodity
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prices have helped the consumer and given the fact that household consumption is within 50%-60% and economies, it is very important. francine: what is your biggest concern for the u.k.? it is about currency strength. >> at the moment, i'm concerned about the much harder landing of the em and china block. if this were to occur, there would be no place to hide. if we take that as being the biggest risk, china seems to be your central tenant at all times. if that is the case, does money flow directly into the euro? is that they had went for both of these economies? >> we might see further outbursts from the em blo and to further markets. thec key impact for me would be
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into sentiment. it would be perhaps, on triggering central-bank reactions. from there, it could affect markets again and perhaps bring some money back into the risk markets. equities, for example. that is key here. the immediate exchange rate effect is of a secondary nature. francine: when you look around the world, how much do you worry about the currency war. we have not really called it as such, but if you look at japan, and we may get something from do bank of japan this week, you think this is a race that will hurt everyone at the end of the day? >> it is a concern we should take seriously, but i don't think we are there yet. the g-20 has been very open in avoiding currency war scenarios. in lima later this week, we'll hear something very similar. it is true though that, from a european perspective, the weaker
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euro was one of the great success stories for the ecb's qe. the ecb was very pleased to see what the euro has done. francine: up next, we talk fortunes and intellect. ♪ .
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. francine: welcome back to the pulse. i'm francine lacqua. manus: in i'm manous cranny. the survey out there was for 56. francine: checking pound. that's a big move on the back of that worse than expected figure. services beak the -- services being the backbone of the economy. the indicators similar to
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europe but not as dramatic. 1.5211 at the moment. francine: shares of glencore are trading up and follows a surge of 70% in a hong kong listing. it comes after a report commodity traders are talking to potential buyers for its agriculture business. manus: looks like the designated chairman pesh has warned a diesel emission scandal could pose a crisis for the company. the world's biggest carmaker has seen its market value fall since the first scandal emerged last month. the german company faces a deadline of wednesday to come up with a plan to fix the cars in its home market. francine: coelho has won another election since the nation gained its sovereignty. he lost his majority in parliament but defeated the
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socialist leader by focusing on the economic progress underscored by its exit from an international bailout in 2014. coelho's stewardship the economy is growing again and the fiscal deficit is narrowing. manus: let's break up the data we've broken the headlines. the services p.m.i. we're looking at a reading, the lowest since april 14 on the services side of the u.k. we have is a slowdown. and k: they are asking it, put paid to the chances of a u.s. interest rate hike this year. according to the fed fund futures the probability of a hike has slumped to 34% from 64% on september 16. . that was the day before the fed kept the rates unchanged in september. asian stocks are rising for a fourth day. the stock 600 rose earlier as much as 2.3%. and asian and emerging market
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investors are sighing a huge relief because stocks have fallen in anticipation of a fed rate hike this year. this is the msci emerging markets index the last six months, coming close, emergence stocks gaining for a fourth day. look at the stat, the best stretch since april. as i said, this index has slumped by 24% since its high in april this year in anticipation of higher u.s. interest rates and of course a slowing chinese economy. now, what the jobs report has done to the u.s. dollar is weaken it. the bloomberg dollar spot index is falling for a third day. and with the dollar declining, commodities are rising. this is the bloomberg commodity index rising for the second day and measures the performance of 22 raw materials and this index sank by the biggest drop in seven years. and the weak dollar benefits
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commodities by making them cheaper in other currencies. . and this is a six day chart and shares sank by 29%. over the week shares didn't crawl back to the losses but almost did by 2% today and have crawled up those losses and over 3%. a, its selling its stake in the agricultural business according to people familiar and that telegraph article that glencore essentially says would listen to offers for all of it but the management doesn't believe they'll pay a value for the entire company and seems to have given the shares at least at the open a 20% gain today. the company had to come out with a statement saying it's unaware of the movement in the share price. don't be too swayed by what's happened in the last few days. this is the worst performer on
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the ftse 100 this year with a decline of 65% but it's significant and wiped out all those record losses from last monday. manus: thank you very much. mark barton on the latest of the markets. francine: they shape economies and run banks and shape ideas. bloomberg's fifth annual people that matter to the markets is published today. joining us to discuss the 50 names included is our bloomberg market senior editor striker mcgwire. great to have you on the program. it's a rare treat. who is on top? striker: janet yellen. mark's report, if you took a minute or two of what he said, you can figure out why you have people at the very top of this list. you have interest rates, you have -- manus: janet is on the front page. and number two is ping. there aren't many price. -- many surprises. one thing about the list,
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because they are so influential, you should have heard of them. there are a few surprises because it is a subjective listing. it is scientific up to a point. so you have the pope on the list, which you normally wouldn't find him on a list of influential people in our world, the world of business. francine: talking climate change. stryker: exactly. then you have the number two person in china by our reckoning is someone that not everyone has heard of but he pent a lot of time in a cave with ping and is in charge of the anti-corruption campaign. manus: we had a couple seconds before we started the conversation and you mentioned angela merkel and christine le guard are having a tough year in terms of information.
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what surprised you in terms of the europeans, the americans, that kind of story? stryker: the americans do dominate the list which all things considered, world's largest economy and so forth, makes sense. the europeans on the list, some of them are there because of the problems. manus: their issues. stryker: you have angela merkel and christine lagarde, german chancellor, managing i.m.f. director along with mario dragi. manus: mr. whatever it takes. francine: saying it but not exactly doing it. he has firepower and not spending our money so much, right? that's why he's doing whatever it takes. the most surprising person. i was fascinated by number two in china. stryker: to me he was the most
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surprising in the sense that in that case -- we took a forensic look at this guy and so when we say he's the second most important person in china, we're really not pulling that out of a hat. he's on the executive commit of the bureau but technically ranked eight, nine, 10, something like that. that was a surprise in that it's such an important surprise. there are some smaller names on here that might feel like -- tomas picatee is still on there as well, feeling like he's a leftover but continue to feel repercussions of his analysis of capitalism. francine: last time i was in davos, i was trying to see bout it.
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stryker mcgire. manus: coming up next on "the pulse" we talk the art of leadership with the chair of the institute of directors. stay with "the pulse."
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manus: welcome back to "the pulse." we're live from bloomberg's london headquarters. now, whether it's dealing with
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the crisis of the double emissions scandal or running for president in the united states, leadership is a crucial quality and someone who knows a thing or two about it is lady barbara judge, the chair of the institute of directors and she joins us now on "the pulse." lady barbara, fantastic to have you with us this morning. great to see you. the biggest story in the world and the biggest scandal in the world right now is at the heart of volkswagen. they're due to communicate with the world on wednesday and have anointed -- appointed a new management team. what advice would you be giving them right no in terms of really beginning to handle this crisis? barbara: in my own experience in helping tepco in japan with the fukushima crisis and what i've learned over the years is the most important thing is to apologize. we felt in the fukushima crisis, until the management apologizes to the people who have been, in this case, v.w.,
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has been defrauding. they need to apologize and take responsibility. if they don't, they'll never regain the trust which is lost. that's the first thing. the second thing i think is transparency is disclosure, is talking about how could this happen? now, i know that's a problem because what they do generally in all of these kind of case is they set up a special committee, a special investigative committee. they've hired some fancy american lawyers already i read who will spend a million point five hours working on whatever happened and there will be a problem and the lawyers will say don't talk, don't say anything because you'll get more lawsuits if you talk about it. the press and the people will say tell us what happened. we don't want to wait a year and a half until the committee finishes its report and there will be this balancing and it's a problem. but i believe that today, the world has changed. in the old days you could say
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the committee is investigating, we'll let you know when it happens. today with real-time communications, with people like you and people who are doing twitter and who are always talking to each other via telecommunications that are real time, you have to give the public some information. you have to give them information. you have to explain why a company like v.w. that's such an important part of german industry could allow the culture to go so bad. because that's the root of corporate crisis is culture. if you train your employees to do the right thing, they will. but it starts from the top. it starts from leadership. if the company allows people to believe they could defraud the regulators, they could defraud the people buying the cars. you really need a lot of effort to regain their trust. francine: we talk a lot about leadership. is true leadership tested in a crisis, especially that when you see the leaders that are
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worth following, the visionaries? barbara: absolutely. it's all about leadership and all about the tone at the top. it's all about will these people articulate an idea and can he or she make you follow him or her? that's the point. and is this new leader of v.w. the right person? we don't know. it's interesting he's not a new person. he's somebody from the company. can he regain the trust without being a new person? it's a big job, a challenge. manus: lady barbara, i want to tie things together here. i'm going for three for one. janet yellen tops our bloomberg most influential this morning. she's a lady and you're a strong advocate of females in power and making that happen. she's the top of the list. it's wall street that looks to her. i life the irony, she perhaps is the most powerful lady in
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the world and your key theme of course is women exceeding to power. just draw those three things together for me because this is a seminal moment for wall street and the banking perspective. lady barbara: the good thing is she's there and she's very smart and very well educated and very well trained. i believe we have to harness 100% of the world's brains, not just 50. and if you don't deal with women, you deal withble 50%. the first group thing that happened was somebody educated her and trained her and gave her a chance to rise up which is very important. women need to be -- you don't get janet yellen or christine lagarde's or margaret thatcher if they haven't come up through the ranks so someone along the lines somebody had to have given them a chance, pushed them, mentored them and given them an opportunity to show how smart they are and to be in a position where they can make
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decisions that count. you know i believe that we have o start women at a young age in primary school, if they're good in math and science, don't send them -- what used to happen was they send them to be a nurse. now they send them to be a doctor. that's better than a nurse. what we ought to do is send them to be an engineer or economist. those same math skills could be an economist and engineer as opposed to a nurse or doctor. then we should fast track them and give them opportunities to do the things that count, not shove them off with respect to human resource and strategy. give them an opportunity to run a profit and loss statement and look at wall street as a place to get to, to look at being the governor of the fed as someone that is achievable. if there's not an opportunity to get there, we'll waste that 50%. francine: it's also role models that you need. lady judge, how do you make a leader, how do you make a
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visionary, is it something to be taught or qualities that you enhance? lady judge: it's a big debate and i don't know the answer. we hope you can make a leader and don't want to say only people born with it can be leaders. we don't want to believe that. we want you to believe you can be taught and that you can be mentored and that you can learn those skills either in school or by role models or whatever. i have to say -- i'm not a leader like any of those people but i was chubby and plain and uninteresting when i was in primary school. i promise but, it's true. but i had a mother. i had my mother who taught women to work. i had my mother who said to me, we are not having any starving actresses in this family. that's what i wanted to be, an actress. you want to act, go be a lawyer. you can act in front of the jury. that's what she immediately said and she immediately said and always told me, you have to look to see what you're going to do to earn your own living
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because her belief was that women needed to earn their own money, not because they were poor or alone but because they were smart and had a brain and should use it and be independent. so i think you need somebody who can take the opportunity, give you the opportunity to take the opportunity. francine: lady judge, always a pleasure, lady barbara judge there, the chair of the institute of directors. thank you. manus: we'll take a very short break and talk a little bit about telenov and invested $2.4 billion and join us on twitter. lacqua. is@francine francine: it's flacqua. back in two.
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live on bloomberg, streaming on your phone and of course telenor sold a stake and the telecom operator plans to focus on markets. let's speak to the president, mr. micah. thanks for joining us on the phone from oslo. give us a sense why you think this is the right time to sell your take.
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don't you think it would have been easier to wait until the price calmed down? sigve: we took over a couple years ago and we looked into the leadership in vimpelcom. an we wanted to focus our attention on the core markets which is the nordics and central europe and asia. on top of that, i must admit the minority had over time been difficult because we've not been able to influence the company. so that's the strategic idea of coming out like we do. we do not have any buyers but we are in the process. we know this is going to take time and we will use the necessary time to make sure the otential sale is in favor of
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the shares. manus: mr. brekke in terms of the simple interest you might have from potential buyers, who else or what other institutions might you expect to receive offers from besides michael friedman, the billionaire, who is the main owner over there? sigve: i think that is a comment on that, we've not talked about the sell process and will do that as soon as we get our announcement we're making today and take the necessary time to do this in an orderly fashion. francine: what would you do with the proceeds of the money you get, mr. brekke? sigve: we are constantly focused on the growth in our growth markets and we see that the data that is now coming from the customers make us believing in that being the new
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wave of telecom, so to speak and also has to be supported by data networks. so we need to use money to invest in networks. manus: tell us this, is there an alternative strategic way for you to enter the russian market rather than this j.v. that you have? sigve: i don't think the russian market is in our scope as of now. we are very focused on the nordic markets, the central, eastern european market and asia. we'd like to continue to focus on those core markets or those core countries. francine: you were saying, of course, since you've been in charge you were looking at strategic options and looking at regions and this is one of the reasons you want to sell your stake in vimpelcom? francine: has the scandal affected your thinking? sigve: no, it's purely a strategic conversation.
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and telenor is not under investigation. telenor is only a witness in the investigation. we do not know the status of the investigation as we do not know what the u.s. and the authorities, where they are in this investigation either. we have to wait and see the outcome of. this has nothing to do with this investigation. it's purely a strategic choice where we want to make sure we're focusing on the markets where we can create most value. manus: before we let you go, can we expect other structural changes within telenor and are we looking at job losses in the group with a restructuring? sigve: no. you cannot expect any other decision to be made shortly. manus: thank you very much, sigve brekke, the president and c.e.o. of the telenor group. francine: bloomberg's "first
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word" is up next. the second hour of "the pulse" is coming up and we'll be talking about how shoppers are faring and bring you the latest data and talk about the fed and emerging markets next.
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francine: on the rise, glencore shares surge following reports the company is talking to potential buyers for its agricultural business. v.w.'s existential crisis. the incoming chairman warns the emission scandal could threaten the survival of the world's biggest carmaker. and osborne expects to address the conference and the british announces plans to share lloyd shares to the public. francine: welcome to "the pulse" live from european's bloomberg headquarters, i'm francine lacqua along with
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manus cranny joined by tom kean. we will talk about the world economy and central banks. tom: it happened friday with the stunning jobs report to see the u.s. yield this morning below 2% gives us hours and hours of perspective forward and what mark carney and janet yellen will do and of course what it means for the greater developed nation's economy. as you know we have stellar guests looking forward and we're leading off with alberto gallo and it's superb. francine: and waiting for his words because he's spot on. glencore shares soared following reports the trading giant is talking to potential buyers for its agricultural business. the share price in london currently gaining 6.5%. the company says it isn't aware of any reason for the move in shares. let's bring in bloomberg's chief energy correspondent. javier, what's going on? it's been a roller coaster for a company that's been dull,
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actually. javier: and we're talking to a ftse company that rarely moved 2% in a day and seen the share price go down 30%. this morning in hong kong, 72% at some point. it's a fairly volatile stock at the moment. the main study is glencore start the process to sell the agricultural business and the bankers have been appointed with citigroup and are running this process and we reported on friday that they have set an interest from asia and in particular in singapore world fund and there is interest in buying a stake. francine: is there a big concern this may happen again? down 30%, up 20%, down 15% can come back at any time? javier: there is volatility in the stock and short selling at the moment in the market and will be expecting this volatility. it's a company that four years after his i.p.o., most
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investors are still struggling to understand. i think that when analysts put in notes they have to explain what glencore is. francine: the problem is the trading system is opaque and copper has gone down and the positive is we know management has known each other forever and are very much involved. javier: the management knows the company obviously and they have been for a long period running glencore but i think the trade in business where investors don't understand is it's a black box for many investors. i think glencore has made a mistake and not spending enough time explaining what the trading business is. now four years later after the i.p.o., still having to educate the investors is a big problem. francine: thank you, bloomberg's chief energy correspondent. let's go to another corporate story. the emissions scandal could pose a crisis for volkswagen and is a verdict of the company's incoming chairman according to newspapers.
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v.w. has until wednesday to come up with a plan to fix 2.8 million vehicles in its own market. let's go to hans nichols in berlin. very strong words, perhaps warring words in -- worrying words from the chairman. hans: accurate words from the incoming chairman who likely later this week will be formally confirmed as the chairman and here's what he told the supervisory board. he said it's an existing threatening rise for the company. now, francine, we're learning more about what happened in 2008. and the engineers were presented and said look, the engines are claiming the annual of emissions simply will not work and at that point decided to have a software work around, not fix the fundamental problem or start from scratch which would have been a huge capital investment. now, we've seen several executives depart based on those revelations according to
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a newspaper. and we'll know more from the presentation that mr. poetsch gave to his committee and said they aren't disposing for any assets and don't look for porsche or buge oughty to -- bugati to be sold. they have concerned about the ability to raise debt and what effect it will have on their debt ratings. they do have $21.5 billion cash on hand and is their liquidity and compare that to what it may end up costing. there's a report out from credit swiss saying it will cost 78 billion euros and gives you a sense the challenge volkswagen may have in making this all right. the question in germany has been will it influence the entire economy here? angela merkel weighed into the debate and here's what she told german radio and she said i believe the reputation of the german industry and trust in germany as a business location hasn't been so shaken we won't continue to be seen as a good business location. throughout the weekend,
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volkswagen took out full page ads, this is a day of german unity and what germans were celebrating this weekend. one final note -- this is a report in one newspaper and they said it was continental that would supply some of the parts that were manipulated by the software. so if you have some sort of fix that may require new parts from continental, of course an auto parts supplier. this morning continental jumped almost 2% on that news. it's backed down a little bit but gives us a sense of just how this whole scandal, as well as the fix, is going to affect auto suppliers and companies all across germany. francine? francine: hans nichols in berlin. let's bring in alberto gallo, head of credit research at r.b.s. and staying with us most of the hour. great to have you on the program and we have a busy week as tom was saying, the 10-year yields in u.s. below 2% and the b.o.e. and a lot of federal reserve speakers but also have v.w. how do you factor that this
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european growth and german growth? humberto: b.m.w. invested the most in china and had 20% of revenues and for that reason we've been cautious and obviously couldn't forecast the event on emissions but generally the story is shaky. there's been overinvestment in china by a lot of companies and still will be affected structurally by the slowdown and remain cautious. we were short v.w. and at close was short but still remain cautious. francine: tom? tom: alberto, i look at the events friday's that we're still digesting in america. to give you a perspective, i did a chart on the bloomberg terminal on twitter on labor participation and got over one million views from friday at about 8:35 a.m. people are transfixed by this. are the markets telling the central banks what to do or are the central banks still in control of the situation?
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alberto: i think it's not clear. i think the problem we have, especially with the fed but other central banks is by using the wealth effect, they've tied more and more to markets. now we're in the latest phase of the economic cycle in the u.s. and it becomes harder and harder to get off zero. we think they could still get off zero at some point next year but looks like they're missing the window now. and even if they do get off zero, they have barely enough room to hike. we're potentially looking at a cycle of very prolonged q.e. tom: what is the price of that? critically if they miss the window and francine, that was an idea in a lot of literature over the weekend, if they miss that moment, mr. gallo, what are the ramifications for the global system? alberto: we're looking at the q.e. infinity scenario here where central bankers are going
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to own more and more of capital markets. so for investors, the price is financial repression. in europe in the cover bond market you already see this has happened. the e.c.b. owns a 1/3 of the market. the market doesn't move, valuations are very tight. there's no return left. this could happen to other markets. so this is a first cost. the second is loss of credibility, loss of credibility and forward guidance and the third one could be loss of credibility in the central bank. you've got some central banks that have balance sheets bigger than g.d.p.'s. francine: which is crazy. back to tom's original question which was are the markets leading the way? is there a danger that the markets are misinterpreting this so we have a weak report from the u.s. on friday and yen falls and dollar falls and emerging economies up. but if the u.s. doesn't grow it puts things into works for the rest of the world? alberto: the markets are moving between bad news is good news versus bad news is bad news.
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at the moment we're coming back to bad news is good news because there's more q.e. but the problem with this is that this is only a short-term benefit. if you keep rates at zero and keep q.e. going, then the imbalance is growing more. the emerging market dollar borrowing which is one of the reasons the feds didn't hike in december and is driven by zero dollar rates. and we estimate that -- e.m. was where basically 3/4 of the credit growth happened in the last 10 years. it took the u.s. 40 years to double private debt, houses and corporates and took the euro zone 15 years and e.m., seven or eight years. so they did what the u.s. has done in 40 years in the last seven or eight years, particularly china. this cycle of debt views growth at some point is stopping and during the reforms, rebalancing their economies. what is the limit? how much private debt can we
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grow? this means we either continue keeping rates at zero or we cannot -- if we hydrate, we have a short-term shock. i prefer the short-term shock rather than he keeping the problem going on another 10 years. francine: the proverbial can being kicked. alberto gallo from r.b.s. stays with us. here's a look what else is on the radar with manus. manus: kicking it off in the u.k. the government will celluloid's banking group to re tail ambassadors. the sell scheduled for next spring and see a public offering of about a 5% discount to the market price. the move is part of britain's plan to fully exit its share holding of loids in the coming months. there has been fresh evidence this morning that economic growth is faltering in mainland europe and britain. the market purchasing managers index for september suggests u.k. services expanded at the slowest pace in two years.
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at the same time the p.m.i. data also points to an easing of euro zone manufacturing and services growth. passos e minister pedro coelho gained the election. while he lost his majority in parliament, he decisively defeated the socialist leader antonio kosta. by focusing on the company's economic progress underscored by the exit from an international bailout in 2014. under coelho's stewardship the economy is growing and the fiscal deficit is narrowing. the greek prime minister sip as ill unveil his -- tsipras will unveil his plans including a budget for 2016. the parliament will debate measures three days before holding a vote of confidence. tsipras must balance the demand
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for cuts and aleave yet the effects. another greek drama on the way. back to you. francine: thanks so much. it's a busy week ahead. later today we get another read on the u.s. economy, as services industry data drops at 2:45 u.k. time and over to jermaine o'neal banks and overnight tuesday we get a rate decision from the reserve bank from australia. on wednesday the bank of japan announces monetary policy following a two-day meeting and on thursday we get a decision from england and then we get the minutes of the fed's meeting. now to albert gallo from r.b.s. during the break we were joined by tom keene. we were talking about forward guidance, about the fact this is not working, the forward guidance we're seeing. does the mandate of the federal reserve or the e.c.b. need to change to incorporate markets in it? alberto: i think it needs to change in incorporating financial stability which is a broader concept.
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it's not a short-term market sell-off. it's the stability in the long term. so if you are -- if you're looking at shorter markets sell-off and you influence your policy based on that, you can almost go from the driving seat to the passenger seat and the market gets in the driverens seat and you keep policy easier than it should and markets build up overvaluation in some areas or allow people to borrow too much which happened with emerging markets and it becomes harder to drive in the future. what was proposed this week on the boston federal reserve conference was interesting so that the fed should look at financial stability. we have underestimated the cost of cleaning up a financial bubble burst. this has been shown by a lot of economies by the i.m.f. these costs are structural and yellen is wrong when she says low inflation is cyclical, when low wages are cyclical. it's a structure problem and a result of misallocation to the
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wrong sectors for 20 years. so financial stability needs to be a mandate. francine: tom? tom: alberto, i look at the idea of the mandate and all and want to go back to the markets. which spread market are you focused on, is a thermometer or belief construct for this crazy market we're in? you're an expert at european spreads but is there a global or u.s. spread that's particularly good for our viewers to pay attention to? alberto: well, i think here the cannery has been the -- you can say the u.s. market because they have connections to the energy sector and also the emerging markets. a lot of emerging market borrowers and corporates have been borrowing in dollars. the u.s. market has been very weak and also been -- in part because of energy and in part because of the uncertainty around the fed. a lot of investors want the fed to hike both because they're worried about the long-term
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issues of too loose for too long and because they want the uncertainty being removed. so that's one of the areas in which this year has been underperforming the most. the second thing i'm looking at is emerging markets, australia, for example, but the economies that are satellite economies of china, very linked to hard commodity production and exports and these economies are widening and we saw the currency move and the equity move. we think there's a credit crunch that's going to happen in e.m., particularly brazil and australia. francine: thank so you much. hold the thought and we'll get back to alberto gallo shortly. the luxury retailer made their debut in milan. now it's the world's biggest website posting a revenue of 1.3 billion. joining us is the c.e.o. in milan. frederico, great to have you on the program. talk to me a little bit about
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consolidation. congratulations on today but how much more consolidation are we going to see in your industry and will china play a big part in that? frederico, yoox is becoming the market's leader and is enough consolidation for now. the remaining industry, i think that there will be much more consideration but for us, we would be focused on the integration the next couple years and then see. francine: will amazon play a role or is it too soon to tell? frederico: it's too soon to tell. we just launched our new company today and are fully focused on the integration of two companies that have been leaders in our industry in the last 15 years and the combining forces, they would be the market leader and in the next couple years so we'd just be focused on that and then, we'll
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see. francine: give me a sense of what your main risks are out there. we talk about china day in and day out about whether the consumers are still spending and whether they spend abroad or whether they spend while traveling. how do you see china right now? frederico: the luxury online is a growing sector, high growth sector. something in china completely different from the luxury offline. we see ourselves growing in triple digits and haven't seen any slowdown so i think that the internet is a different story compared to the physical stores. francine: are you concerned about competitors? so we know that conde nast, once the destination for fashion shoots and reviews will become a web retailer next year. are you feeling the heat or do you think you have this one and you'll be better at it?
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frederico: the story is that we are combining two companies with 15 years of experience. the management team, they're working together within six months already with a lot of passion to work on the cinergies together, 150 years of experience. so cumulatively, we have the strong experience and in a company that's making $1.5 billion in 2014. and this year obviously more than that. so i think that we're not a startup anymore. and we are the market leader. we're ready to compete. and i think some of our brands operated by yoox, we would be happy to collaborate with them provided our brand are happy to work with them. francine: and i was asking you about partnerships. how well is the partnership going and do you think gucci
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will sign up? frederico: first of all, you should ask them. they've invested a lot in so as an entrepreneur, i totally respect any decision from them. i think that the joint venture that we signed quite -- almost five years ago with them has been very successful. we're growing. and as far as i know, they're happy with it. i think that it was like a transformation of a joint venture because in the history, there's never been a joint venture between a french luxury group and an italian e commerce company. now with combined forces with net-a-portier, we're trying to bring more services, editorial services, and we are the partner, a long-term partner so i think that they'll be better
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off with this merger. francine: is your 60 million euro estimate for annual cinergies too conservative? this is what some analysts were suggesting. frederico: we like to deliver. we like to deliver and have been delivering plans and budgets in 15 years with the help of our management team that now is a double management team of talents and it's a dream team, frankly. i'm very excited about working with so many talents under one roof. and when i say conservative is because the two teams are working for six months and already the first is out. and i feel that when they're doing the fine-tuning of the cinergies that i expect it to come from this merger a long time ago because i warted --
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started to think about the merger six years ago and has been a long-term plan for me because i believe the combination of the two companies will bring a better future for both companies and all of our employees. i think that maybe we realize we've been conservative. when we said the 60 million. francine: interesting comments from frederico marchetti, the c.e.o. of yoox,. francine: the party conservative will address and two billion pounds of loids shares will be sold next spring. bloomberg is at the conference. loids sale share announced. what else can we expect from osborne? axation the top of his list. reporter: we can hear more about economic prudence and there's a lot of noise from the subject about the
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and said he'd cut back on tax credits for working people and created real feeling and he likely will say he's going to stick to that path because the message is very much conservative keeping the shop in order especially at a time when the labor party is in disarray. francine: europe is officially off the agenda but it's the referendum that will be very much dominating the party conference. svenja: absolutely. they are a large number of fringe meetings that are behind the scenes discussing the e.u. referendum. there's a lot of noise from the back ventures about demanding what exactly the reforms cameron is seeking are. we haven't had a list or a clear indication about what the goals are. we heard from both david cameron and george osborne in the last couple days that negotiations are going well.
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what others are asking is what is the end result so far? could you show us something concrete? and that's likely to keep on going for very much the situation of this conference and beyond. francine: all right. thank you so much, svenja o'donnell in manchester. who are the biggest winners of 2015? well, two defining reports have of course been talking about that. this is the two defining reports we've had, the market's most influential and then look at global brands. let's get straight to alberto gallo from r.b.s. we're talking about the federal reserve and talking a little bit about what to expect for this year. when you look at the u.k., how much kevin do you have for a, productivity and two, wage growth that is increasing but not by that much, and how much are you concerned about strength in sterling? alberto: i think the major issue with he face in the u.k. is public financing, finances and spending. we had a very strong recovery compared to the you're zone, 3% growth or close to that.
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but the government has been spending a lot. and part of the deficit was also camouflaged by the bank of england's payments on the as sets that are both with q.e. to the treasury and the bank paid interest to the treasury. so the deficit needs to come down and also spending needs to come down by around eight points according to the official forecasts in the next three years. so you're going to have to either pay less in health care and services to citizens or you're going to have to tax more. so the u.k.'s recovery is slowing down. during this period of recovery, also increase credit. u.k. households are borrowing and there's a 1/4 of u.k. households borrowing four times over the income and some five times and that's pretax income. basically we haven't anticipated a lot of future growth and now potentially we have to slow down. this is an issue especially in growth has been unequal.
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0.1% of population pays 16% of taxes and we already see rising social unrest in some areas. so you know, before elections there's been a housing boom and a boost in credit. now we're paying the price and we're going to pay the price in the next years. i think actually the bank of england's room to hike rates is constrained by private leverage and potentially sterling may be a little bit too high compared to the fundamentals. francine: very quickly, alberto, you have a note out saying state of credit markets, burning dragon. when we look at ukplc, they're suffering from what has been happening in china? alberto: and the market linked to foreign buyers from russia and china and asia. so this is one of the areas where also even in the ftse there is exposure to mining and commodities. so the u.k. has been also benefiting from savings from
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emerging markets. and now this capital inflow may be falling in the future. francine: alberto, thank so you much for now. who are the biggest winners of 2015? that's what we'll be exploring next. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." i am francine lacqua. here are some more of bloomberg's top headlines. far, stock to never is trading higher. that is off the highs of the day. 70% at onemore than point in hong kong training. after reports the commodities trader is talking about agricultural business.
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volkswagen designated chairman has warned the diesel admissions -- emissions scandal could pose a crisis for the company. they have seen their value fall by more than 30 million euros since the scandal first emerged. the german company faces a deadline to present a plan to fix some 2.8 million vehicles in its home market. the portuguese prime minister has won the nation's first general election regaining it economic sovereignty. he decisively defeated the socialist leader by focusing on the countries economic progress, under hisd -- stewardship, the economy is growing again, unemployment is dropping, and the fiscal deficit is narrowing. francine: chicken on the markets
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with jonathan ferro. jonathan: after three weeks of losses, here is the stronger rebound, gains in italy and spain. here in london we are up 2% on the dax. think two stocks encapsulate what is going on in global markets. the biggest gainer on the ftse and the biggest loser on the dax. the biggest gainer, glencore's. look how it is trading in london. it was the hong kong trading session that took the headlines. , the stock2% encapsulates three things, a slowdown in china, weaker commodity prices, and market volatility. huge strings one way and the other -- swings one way and the other. the market volatility, the commodity means potash has dropped their pursuit of cayenne
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-- k&syenne us down 20% down 20%. today,iving some back 5%, but it was the moves on friday that really indicated what the world was looking like. the global stock and bond index down below 1% for the first time since april. week data for the u.s., we data for the ui k -- for the u.k.. .51. drops off when dollar you have a decision from the bank of england later this week and from the fed minutes later as well. everyone was talking rate hikes just around the corner. francine: it is going to be a very busy week in terms of data,
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and we have the imf in lima. apple -- basically leaves the others in the dark for the top spot. we are joined by manfredi ricca. another year-defining report. thank you so much for joining us. let's kick it off with you because we have the bloomberg markets most influential out today, janet yellen tops it. is there anything surprising in your findings? >> not really. maybe in the case of some individuals, people will be surprised. people will also argue about the choices. i suspect you find this with your ranking at. i would say our
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rankings are quite a bit more subjective than yours are. we are looking at data and the year that has gone by, trying to figure out who really made a mark and who did not. you have the americans dominate protectively, i think. we have more asians than ever not to beich is also unexpected, even with a slowdown in china. europeans are not super well represented on the list, and that is because it has not been a great year in europe. so the europeans who are on the list like angela merkel, christine lagarde, they are on their amy because they perform rescue missions involving priests. francine: tom, jump in. tom: is this a popularity contest? coca-cola is down a little bit, amazon is up a little bit.
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are you just measuring the popularity of the brands? now, it is actually a financial rating of the brand. we look at the financial value of brands and take into consideration the likely value that is going to be created high brands. francine: there is nothing really surprising, right? apple is still a top. what surprised you? aboutdi: no big surprises knowledge he. -- technology. one surprise entrance is lego, a legacy business in all respect. a perfect example of how you can be very consistent with your promise but also make it relevant across the experience in a different world today. stryker, i was
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fascinated by our bloomberg market's most influential. stryker: he is the head of something called the committee for discipline inspection. name for what he does. tzar,the anti-corruption and he basically is very close to the president. they spent time together during the cultural revolution. they were both dispatched out to the countryside. they lived in caves and shared the few books they could find. reading materials were not very prevalent at that time. they bonded under those circumstances. they have been close ever since and now they are incredibly close, as he basically act as chi's enforcer. francine: senior editor for bloomberg markets and manfredi
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ricca. in conjunction with bloomberg markets, the most influential summit takes place tomorrow, convening leading thinkers in finance from new york, london, and hong kong. we will be going to the event live for a conversation with anshu jain. you can get all the details on the event at coming up next, more on the emerging markets. i also note tom is for guest on the german bonds -- focused on unds. we are back in two. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live from london. let's kick off in the south of france. we have had flash floods that have killed at least 16 people and another three missing. roads remain shut along most of the riviera. along the a-eight highway. the freak weather dumped almost 20 centimeters of rain in cannes . u.k.'s biggest insurer may move to asia.
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prudential has been weighing hong kong or singapore to avoid upcoming eu regulations, but the insurer says only a fifth of its operations will be infected. london -- affected. american apparel has filed for bankruptcy protection, all part of a plan that the company will exchange with a $200 million in bonds for stock in the organized company. the filing follows five consecutive years of losses, and a series of scandals involving the founder. the portuguese prime minister has won the nation's first general election is regaining its economic sovereignty. he lost his majority in parliament but decisively defeated the socialist leader by focusing on the country's economic progress, underscored
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by the exit of a financial bailout in 2014. unemployment is dropping. fran, back to you. francine: tourism has helped recession,al in a with the industry accounting for 16% of the country's economic output. say they are being pushed out of their own neighborhood by the crowds, noise, and crime. bloomberg spoke to a local bar owner about whether the street is a symbol of lisbon's recovery or a badge of shame for the city. >> young people are coming because they know they can party here, he has here they can do whatever they like. there are no rules at all. it was the start of all of our problems. >> i remember like 20 years ago, lisbon was a small city. nothing was really happening and
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these days, everything is happening. >> it was one of the forgotten areas of the city. it actually was a bit dangerous, a little bit of crime, a lot of prostitution. >> it was quite peaceful. one street had a disco but it was restricted. and behind closed doors. >> this area was a nightlife area for a long time. for example, the street used to be for prostitutes, the bar for prostitutes. >> the prostitution is still here. you do not see it anymore because there are so many people and now you have drugs, burglaries, so safety, that is not true. people are not safe here. >> for this kind of situation, it is not easy to do because the bars, they are allowed and they work until light. if you have neighbors leaving --
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living near, they are going to complain because they want to sleep at night. we try to be responsible. >> people call the police every night. they simply do not come. for five years we are having meetings with the authorities. they do not want to change things. there is no political will at all. they are very happy with this, they say the jobs and the economy, and they do not care about the people that live here. >> a lot of employment has been because wetourism have foreign investments in tourism in portugal, but you also have a lot of small businesses that are being run directly here. there is a lot going on in lisbon. >> we got together and said, it's make a big change here.
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let's make something different. take this place to a new level, not the place that used to be like dark and dangerous if i can say, what a place for everyone. we brought some quality to the area. >> now you can walk everywhere and every week there is a new disco arm bar or restaurant or hotel. now this is like a symbol of lisbon's downtown recovery. >> imagine festivals every night of the week, every day of the year. you see what we have come to. we are playing a train so that people go away. we will get back to portugal and just the second with alberto garo but we have some breaking news from glencore and from lloyds.
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shell doess is to sell shares. they could sell 2 billion pounds more lloyds shares under its current trading, after the news that broke early that the british government plans to sell at least 2 billion pounds to households early next year, and the government planning to fully exit its lloyds stake. members of the public will receive a discount of 5% of the market price, with a bonus share of every 10 shares if they hold their investment for more than a year. the u.k. planning to exit its stake in lloyds. it bailed out lloyds in the height of the financial crisis in 2008. the sale set to target about 2.5 billion pounds. mr.other big news is from glastonbury, the head of glencore which has been in the
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spotlight for the past couple of weeks. he has been speaking about the price of copper which is very important for glencore. seese first half, the ceo lower inventory of copper, massive the stocking of commodities globally. commodities are rising along with the decline in the dollar. that is significant because a weak dollar tending to benefit. shares in hong kong rose as much as 72% earlier. there was this telegraph article that glencore would listen to offers for the whole company. they came out with a statement saying they are unaware for the reasons for the movement and its stock race. they have not out all of monday's losses when the shares sank. shares closed a mere 18%.
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the glencore wild ride continues. francine: mark, thank you. it is like a bus. we do not have breaking news, and then they all come at once. let's get back to alberto gallo from rbs. we were talking a little bit about portugal, looking at the pink street. aside from that, we had elections. portugal stuck to austerity and they have been growing. how do you see this? is it a signpost for greece or is it just portugal because it had different challenges than the rest of europe? alberto: portugal has lower challenges than greece, a level that is very high but not critical. the challenge for portugal is to become more stable before the next slowdown happens, and it could happen in three years or more, but they still have a very high debt level in the banking system is still very weak. the former bank which needs to
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be sold and potentially it will thatld at a loss, a loss outer banks in portugal will have to pay for. still, the banking system is impaired. there's a lot of leverage across court or it -- corporate and households. you need also some investment. francine: we have seen a lot of movements on the german bunds. how do you take this? it seems the economic prowess of germany is taking a hit as it is quite reliant on china and vw. are you more worried now than you were say, six weeks ago? alberto: the short-term, weakness in core europe spilling over to germany makes probably the german faction with the ecp a little less focused. the silver lining of the
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slowdown in asia is deflation is more pressure or the ecb to do more. the next meeting is october 22 and we think it will announce something more devilish. -- dovish. what people call qe2. this is good for markets but it does not solve the problems that europe has, too much debt, lack of reforms, lack of productivity, demographics. we are still responding with a cyclical solution, a cyclical anesthetic to a problem that needs surgery. francine: alberto, thank you so much. you can follow alberto on twitter. i suggest you follow him. it is what to watch, does a weak job number mean more for the fed? ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live on bloomberg tv and streaming on for a look at what we are watching at the rest of the day, and the rest of the week, is tom keene. tom: german bunds are really something right now, just one indicator of the shifts we have seen from the friday jobs report. francine, to measure what we saw over the weekend.
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it is synthesizing in what not to look for, called a type two construct. we are going to talk to dominic on stem about the seismic changes. we will talk to him about the strong dollar and the impact there. markets about emergency -- emerging markets. francine: it was interesting 50%, saying the odds are for a rate hike at the next session, december 15. do you think we will have a much better picture by the end of the week of the headwinds that the fed is facing, the ecb is facing? tom: i would basically say it is intellectual chaos. toinic constant once to get 2016. aboutis a raging debate
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that probability distribution that likelihood of what various and sundry central banks will do. that will be one of the themes for today. i think, francine, i have never seen it so chaotic of opinion. francine: and this is because forward guidance has not worked, or market turmoil? tom: i'm going to leave that to the pundits, that certainly we qe ourselves to the death. who knows what we are going to do? francine: i think you are absolutely right. tom, looking forward to the next hour. stay tuned for the "surveillance" team. this is one of the big questions of the day. if you look at germany, the scandal that was caused by vw, germany was known by its industrial prowess, possibly the country in europe that was the most reliable. that has been called into question by the emissions
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scandal and the slowdown in china. emerging markets are threatening exports. what does it mean for germany? that is one of the things we will be discussing. i know tom is keen on looking at german bunds. ♪
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tom: right now at 2% it is the
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monday after a stunning and market changing jobs report. dominic konstam and carl weinberg. forget stimulus. are the adults in the no inflation room. and glenn forgets a bid. will glencore go private or will it be put out of its misery? it's confusing. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm tom keene. what is the observation this morning after that stunning jobs on friday? given the market response that we had from friday, the yen and dollar have loved pollen. he questions why ma


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