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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  October 5, 2015 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT

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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. i am betty liu. here is what we are watching this hour. an hour to go until the market closes and stocks are surging higher. the s&p on the verge of the longest rally of the year. high-profile insider trading convictions could be in doubt thanks to the supreme court. we will explore what is next after the court refused to hear a government appeal. hillary clinton releases new gun-control proposals. will it be enough to reverse slumping poll numbers as she tries to draw a distinction with her rival, bernie sanders? we are about one hour from the close of trade on this monday. let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. we are near our highs of the session. julie: we are. it has been remarkable today we
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have held steady and seen strength into the close of trading or at least an hour away from the close. as betty mentioned, it is five straight days we have seen stocks rally, the best rally thus far of the year. i wanted to look under the hood of this rally to ascertain how strong it is. will it have legs? look at my bloomberg terminal. the intraday on each of these five sections. by and large except for the first day, we have closed at the highs of the session, which could be an indication of strength. a couple of days you saw a midday dip before ending strong. on friday, you saw the rally happen throughout the day. it looks to be happening again today. it is on relatively high volume. we had seen a trend of higher volume on down days. during this rally, volume has been higher. today, the s&p 500 volume is about 20% above the 100-day average. that could he a reason for optimism. another thing i am watching is
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the volatility index which has seen a big uptrend lately. and notabledown because it is falling below 20. if it closes below 20, that would be the first time since august. we are seeing volatility abate to some extent today. betty: it is a relief for some the volatility is going down. strategists are cutting their year-end forecasts, right? julie: some are starting to cut the forecast. we heard from michael. he had been the most optimistic at 23.50 for year end. now he is saying 20.50 is his year-end target. he is saying the slowdown in china is one reason. subdued growth in corporate earnings is another. we have had about a dozen strategists cut forecasts since the august selloff. david at goldman sachs cutting
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to 200. he was among the less optimistic. cutting to 25. all of this means the average forecast now for the s&p 500 is around 21.47. it has come down considerably. here is the s&p. we would need to see about a 10% rally from these levels to meet those lowered projections. betty: a 10% rally from here? julie: seasonally, we do tend to see year-end rallies going into the holiday. as we know, past performance does not ensure results. betty: i read my fine print. thank you, julie hyman. for more on the markets, i want to bring in eddie perkin, the chief equity investment market or. you hear a 10% rally to the end of the year. does that sound feasible?
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>> it does sound feasible. we saw overpullback the summer has set us up for a rally. a lot of people have gotten very defensive. it is time to put risk back into portfolios. julie: why? the fed might be raising rates. >> we have been told for two years it is coming. anyone not prepared, i don't know what they have been paying attention to. i think it is coming. whether december or early next year, i think that market can cope with a modest increase in interest rates. betty: what has you bullish? >> how negative sentiment has become. the vix have been in the 20's for a sustained period. that is unusual. merrill lynch does a fund manager survey. cash levels are high. retail investors are very bearish. all of these contrarian indicators say to me the market is set up for a rally. betty: market set up for a
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rally, where do you want to be? >> i want to be more cyclical, riskier areas of the market. in the spring, we were favoring defensive areas. now you want to begin to move into the more cyclical areas of the market. i would put banks in that category, semiconductors, and tech, consumer discretionary. those economically sensitive areas that have been beaten up, i think it is time to neville at ibble atmes -- n those names. health care is crowded. of good secular things at work. but i would not be buying the dip yet. morning, mark was speaking about the markets and the fed. i want you to hear what he said about that. >> energy today is a phenomenal opportunity. if you combine the senior
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secured debt, the vast majority of paper is trading at $.60. if it was a 8% coupon, you are getting 16%. you're getting paid to wait for the next year. betty: that is one angle to the markets. he is saying it is energy. what do you say? >> energy is where we have been more defensively positioned. i felt there were a lot of people looking for bargains in that sector at the beginning of the year. we did not participate. i think we are getting closer to that being the right call. getting the timing right is difficult. i don't expect a snapback in oil prices anytime soon. betty: 40 waiting for? > -- what are you waiting for? >> capitulation. you still have people talking about the long-term price of $70. if people start to question that and say this permanently below $50 -- betty: that is a contrarian indicator. >> yeah. betty: earnings season is
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starting this week. what are you expecting from earnings? >> i think this will be a poor earnings season. will probably see negative growth largely driven by energy where estimates are they will be down 65% year over year. that is understood at this point. we will probably be flat in the fourth quarter when we get those results in january. i think we set up well for a strong 2016 from a corporate earnings perspective. betty: thank you so much for stopping by. eddie perkin, chief equity investment officer as we head toward the close. let's look at the bloomberg headlines. mark crumpton has more from our news desk. mark: we begin with an update of the ship that went missing in the atlantic ocean last week. the u.s. coast guard confirmed today it sank after being battered by hurricane with keen. ships and planes have been searching waters near the .ahamas
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the body of one crew member has been found. there were 32 people on board, 28 americans. historicee days of flooding, south carolina is still getting pounded by rain. the governor says the danger is not over yet. more flooding is expected today with more evacuations and road closures possible. at least nine deaths have been blamed on storms in two states. outgoing house speaker john boehner says his replacement will be elected october 29 with other leadership posts decided later. the republican conference will meet to elect a speaker nominee by secret ballot thursday. majority leader kevin mccarthy of california is considered his likely successor. but the utah congressman is mounting an unexpected challenge. to gofive years of talks, she does have reached a deal on the trans-pacific partnership. agreement on the sweeping and controversial plan was announced today in atlanta. it brings the u.s. together with japan and 10 other pacific rim nations.
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toit brings higher standards nearly 40% of the global economy. in addition to liberalizing trade and investment between us, the agreement addresses the challenges our stakeholders face in the 21st century while taking into account the diversity of our levels of development. mark: president obama says the deal reflects america's values and levels the playing field for farmers, ranchers, and manufacturers. opponents say it could hurt american workers. congress has 90 days to study the deal before taking an up or down vote. edward snowden wants to come home. he's offering to serve time in prison if the u.s. says yes. he faces up to 30 years behind bars on federal charges. the uss he jeopardized national security by leaking classified information. russia granted snowden asylum and extended his residency permits. that is a look at our "first
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word" headlines. you can always find the latest news on bloomberg.com. betty: thank you so much. in the next 20 minutes, deepak chopra has teamed up to launch a nonprofit focused on corporate responsibility. chopra will tell us why he into jones -- and tutor jones are working together. hillary clinton is out with a new gun control proposal. to tol have liked to have see if it will boost her flagging support. fundctivist investor's takes a stake in g.e. he says a transformation is underway at g.e. but nobody cares. we will look at whether he is right. ♪
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betty: welcome back to the "bloomberg market day." julie hyman is checking on some rivers. i wanted to see the areas of strength and weakness. it looks like everything is green on your screen. there is one group that has been lagging the rest and just turned positive in the past few minutes. that is health care. it has been a volatile group over the past month on concern about rising drug prices and whether the government will take steps to clamp down on those prices. they are weak again today. there are reports france may be taking steps to cap health care spending, particularly drug pricing as well. many health care providers and drugmakers are weak again today. in terms of strength, industrials are on the list. they are one of the best-performing groups today. we got the news tiran was taking
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a stake in g.e. we are seeing broad strength across the equipment industrial sector. caterpillar, united technologies also seeing strength today. i wanted to point out movement in dow chemical. dow is completing a spinoff of units in a merger. dow also said in the merger spinoff situation it raised more in proceeds than anticipated and may return as much as $1.5 billion in value to shareholders through a buyback or other means. dow has been one of the strong performers in the session. betty: thank you so much. dow chemical. managerire hedge fund paul tudor jones is taking on a new initiative, reforming horticulture through his recently launched nonprofit. of thedown on the debut
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show and spoke about the mission. public whatsked the you think constitutes just behavior. theou see from the graphic, number one and two things are first, what do i get paid? in particular, am i making a living wage? and secondly, how do companies treat me? betty: those are important. joining us is someone who has been integral to the just capital mission, serves on the board with paul tudor jones. deepak chopra is the author of the upcoming book "super genes," which is fascinating about how you trigger your genetic makeup. let's set that aside for a moment and talk about just capital. most people think they are being swindled, that capitalism is swindling them. how are you trying to change this idea of corporate culture?
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>> can capitalism be an instrument for social good? can capitalism be used to create a more just economically just but otherwise socially just, happier, healthier, sustainable world? paul tudor jones and i believe it can. you have to ask the american public, which we have done, what they think would constitute just capital. as you heard, people want to be paid fairly. they want to be respected. they want to be engaged. states in the united $300 billion every year from disengaged people who hate to come to their jobs. betty: they hate their jobs. they don't want to be there. how do you make sure companies are doing more than just paying lip service to this? >> you go inside and check it out from the employees.
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every company has a mission statement, but they don't live up to it. who knows better than people who work in those companies? betty: have to change that. >> for a business to be successful, you need loyalty from three constituencies. one is the employees, second is customers, and 30's investors. -- third is investors. if your employees are happy and healthy, your customers are going to be healthy. betty: they will be treated right. >> the investors will be happy. betty: we have a pie chart that shows what various people you launchd as part of the of just capital, what they think is an element of corporate justice -- justness. 16% believe pay and benefits. i thought it would be higher. hiring.sfaction and what do you think out of those other, every30% is
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other thing. there is a big constituency of people who just don't know. what do you think is going to have the biggest impact? >> i think employees have to be paid well and be appreciated. they have to be part of teams where they emotionally bond, where they have a shared vision, where they complement strengths. all of this is known, by the way. if your manager ignores you, curate of disengagement goes up by 45%. if they criticize you, you get better at 20% because you would rather be -- because at least you are being engaged even though you are criticized. if they notice a single strength you have, the disengagement balls to less than 1% and health improves. how do you create an environment more like a sports team? shared vision, emotional bonding, complement and strength. --, lamenting strengths --
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complementing strengths. the data is therefore makes employees feel relevant. it is not just being paid. you want to feel relevant. betty: what is just capital going to do? >> just capital has already done surveys of the american toulation and published them create instruments for change in the workplace. social engagement, physical health. betty: provide companies tools? >> provide tools, instruments for change. betty: one is to raise the awareness of the issue and provide companies the tools. >> and publish a list of just capital 1000 companies. betty: you got to start somewhere. this is raising awareness. >> we are starting a conversation. betty: before we go, the conversation you also want to start leads to your book, "super
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genes." >> "super genes" was written with a harvard geneticist. the new site says every experience you have modulates the activity of your jeans. philanthropy, if it makes you feel good, it turns on the good genes. it makes you healthier. betty: you know a lot about being healthy and well-being. the founder of the chopra foundation on just capital. still ahead, facing more pressure from bernie sanders, hillary clinton releases new gun-control proposals. will it stop her slide in the polls? we will have life to manchester, new hampshire, next -- we will head live to manchester, new hampshire, next. ♪
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betty: welcome back to thebetty: "bloomberg market day." following the mass shooting and oregon, hillary clinton addressed a new hampshire crowd today about gun control. hillary clinton: this epidemic
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of gun violence knows no boundaries, knows no limits of any kind. and when this happens, people are quick to say that they offer their thoughts and prayers. that is not enough. how many people have to die before we actually act? betty: mark halperin is also in new hampshire following the primary state. he joins us from manchester. explain what clinton is calling for regarding gun legislation. mark: a series of proposals, some executive action, some legislation, largely around the question of regulating gun sales. things like guns sold on the internet, guns sold at gun shows. is the guniew
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industry is less regulated than a lot of other industries. she wants more regulation. she also wants to close loopholes involving background checks. nothing she is proposing is brand-new, but they are provisions not pushed of late by president obama or other democrats because it has been so difficult to get things through congress on this issue because most republicans in congress oppose any new laws to deal with gun violence. betty: speaking about these news shehese new laws, doesn't have a history with some proposal she is making? both your hillary clinton and bill clinton have a history butalking about this issue also being politically burned by it, as have other democrats. in 2000, it hurt his chances of getting elected president. this is an issue on which
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hillary clinton is clearly stepping up, as are most democrats in the wake of high-profile shootings of late, and taking something of a political risk because over the last several decades those opposing new gun laws generally have shown more political force than those who want more new laws. betty: where does bernie sanders stand? >> he is from a very pro-gun state in vermont. he has had past positions that have been supported by the pro second amendment lobby. running for the democratic nomination, he has come to support some of the kind of measures hillary clinton is talking about today. it is clear hillary clinton's team thinks pushing these issues are just as important for her in the context of the democratic nomination fight as they might be in the general election where her advisors believe she will be gone after by the n.r.a. and other guns rights groups no matter what she does, so she might as will push for what she believes in and hopes can showize voters since polls
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a fair amount of support for a lot of the provisions she has been talking about in new hampshire today. betty: mark, thank you so much. mark halperin in new hampshire following hillary clinton. tune in tonight at 5:00 eastern for "with all due respect." mark and john will be in new hampshire and iowa to discuss the state of the race in the first to do primary states. insideread, prosecuting trading case is just got harder. many of those accused are breathing a sigh of relief. we are going to tell you why that is in a moment. ♪
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live from bloomberg world headquarters in manhattan, you are watching "bloomberg market day." i am betty liu. let's start with a check on the bloomberg "first word" headlines.
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mark crumpton has more from the news desk. mark: we begin with the ongoing offensive in syria. nato wants russia to help solve the problem instead of complicating it. the secretary-general says russia should coordinate with the other forces fighting islamic state in syria. russian planes are flying missions targeting the militants, but the u.s. and other missions say russian jets are also targeting opponents of syrian president bashar assad. turkey says one russian jet violated its airspace. in greece, the government of prime minister alexis tsipras wants to complete the first review of its progress under its new international rescue package as soon as possible according to government officials who say the review is necessary for banks to be recapitalized and talks to resume on debt relief of the country. the prime minister is trying to contain the economic fallout from six months of fighting with creditors. in paris, air france employees refused to take news about impending job cuts quietly.
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they stormed into the company headquarters during a meeting and zeroed in on two managers. both managed to escape under police protection, but their shirts were nearly 20 their backs. air france's c.e.o. says seven people were hurt, one seriously. the company's been squeezed by low-cost airlines in europe and gulf carriers for long-haul flights. it is the first monday in october bringing with it the start of the supreme court's new term. court watchers say it will be a session of secrets. the justices will decide narrow issues dealing with abortion, the power of unions, race-based college admissions, and religious objections to birth control. the supreme court has decided not to hear an appeal from charles wrangle. he was seeking to overcome his 2010 censure from the house for financial wrongdoing. the congressman claims staff and members of the house ethics committee suppressed evidence during the investigation. a federal judge ruled courts had
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no authority over the investigation. he plans to retire at the end of his term. justices are leaving the baseball antitrust exemption intact that stems from an effort to move the oakland athletics to san jose california. san jose tried to sue major league baseball for blocking the city's courtship of the a's. baseball has enjoyed the exemption for nearly a century. the miami dolphins have fired their head coach four games into the new season. his fate was apparently sealed after yesterday's loss to the new york jets during a game in london. a tight end coach takes over in the interim. that is a look at our bloomberg "first word" headlines now. you can always find the latest headlines on bloomberg.com. betty: a big loss today for u.s. attorney of the southern district of new york.
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the supreme court turning down the justice department's bid to restore the insider trading convictions of hedge fund managers. prosecutors say this will make it harder to bring such cases. sheelah kolhatkar has been following this story. is it going to make it harder? the u.s. attorney in manhattan had a conference call earlier today and is very unhappy with this. he says this could create a roadmap for unscrupulous traders. it means prosecutors have to show more specific evidence of a trader's knowledge about the received intipper exchange for leaking information to be convicted for a trade. it is sort of open season in some respects. betty: it means traders have to know this was leaked information? and had to have benefited from it? >> they had to know the person inside the company who gave out the information, that that
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person received some kind of benefit. it has to be a tangible, real benefit. on the call, he gave an example. he said you could have a c.e.o. of the company who decides to give a present to some of his nephews and shares that the company is going to be taken over in two weeks. he has not asked for anything in return. he gives them a gift. the u.s. attorney was saying today potentially that could happen. people who have valuable information could almost give it out as gifts. it is a shocking idea when you think about it. betty: there are some credible, reasonable scenarios as he illustrated that could happen. why did the supreme court refused to listen to the cases? >> that is a very good question. it was sort of 50/50 whether they were going to do this. this was a bit of a messy case for prosecutors to bring to them. it involved two hedge fund
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traders. they were four or five people removed from the companies and information. they got it through a game of broken telephone. someone told their friend who told their friend who told their friend. the case was messy. it was not the nice, clean case the supreme court may want to choose to weigh in on this because it is an important subject and needs to be clarified. betty: are hedge fund managers around the country celebrating this? >> i know of a couple in particular who are. those are the two traders at the heart of this case. todd and anthony from diamondback and global, their lives have been in limbo for five years. in 2010, the f.b.i. rated their hedge funds and carted out the computers. they were convicted. their conviction was overturned. now they have been waiting to move on with their lives. this means they are finally free. this is done for them.
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betty: thank you, sheelah kolhatkar a bloomberg news. from insider trading to activism, the activist firm run by nelson peltz has acquired a stake in g.e. not exactly a strategic shakeup. trian supports the plan to focus on industrial businesses. let's bring in joel levington, senior analyst at "bloomberg intelligence." that is a nice title. it seems like investors paid attention today. g.e. shares were up. >> there is a credibility gap with g.e. management. there is a margin gap with its e gap and there is a p/ between the multi-industrials. if you can close that, there is a lot of value for his shareholders and g.e. betty: has anyone else been
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lobbying for change the way nelson peltz has? have they been mostly satisfied? >> if we go back to when jeffrey immelt started, the stock has usually per -- hugely underperformed the s&p 500. i don't think shareholders have been happy. he came in right before 9/11 and was dealt a challenging hand to deal with. i think his call in april to reorganize the company and slim down on the finance company was a bold move that has not been brought forward. betty: exactly right. isn't he doing many of the things nelson peltz is saying g.e. should be doing? >> i think it boils down to credibility. maybe g.e. has shot themselves in the foot over the years. they have had goals that are loftier. the operational execution, having the finance company become such a large part of the profile, any monday morning
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quarterback can say that was not the best idea. i think he is trying to right the ship. i think that is why mr. peltz's signing off on what they are doing but also holding their feet to the fire to say there is somebody big who has executed before, that if the company should slip, they are watching you. are there any indications from nelson peltz and his people that they want to change the board, management at all? >> no, infect the company went out of its way to say it is not looking for a board seat at this time. betty: which is different from what nelson usually wants to do. >> that is true. betty: before we go, what about the bondholders? how could the bondholders be affected by a plan like this? >> the company was forthright in may and said it was willing to accept the single-a rating. downgrades are just a matter of time.
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the bonds expected that and trade similar to other peers in that a category. i think the bonds reacted to that announcement. we will have to see what happens over time. betty: thank you, joel levington on g.e. and nelson peltz. in the next 20 minutes, service sector growth cooled last month after posting huge growth over the summer. what is the slowdown say about the broader economy? joe weisenthal joins us in a moment. as we get ready for the close of trade, we are going to check on stocks and sectors that had big moves today. some of the big winners, you guessed it, twitter popping after naming jack dorsey permanent c.e.o. shows traderst see only a 10% chance the fed will raise rates this month. is december completely off the table? we will find out.
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betty: good afternoon and welcome back to the "bloomberg market day." the market is going to close in about 17 minutes. stocks are rallying as they have been all day long. we want to focus on data that came out before the opening bell -- right after the opening bell. the non-manufacturing index declined indicating service sector growth is slowing down. ,oining us is joe weisenthal cohost of the show that expands to one hour today. we are working you hard, doubletime. what does the data say to you about the consumer and global economy? joe: we did get this slowdown in isn services.
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that suggests there is this broader slowdown. we saw the slowdown in services around the world including europe. it continues to be much stronger than manufacturing if you compare the ism manufacturing last week to the services report. you can clearly see which of the sectors is doing better. it is services. if you look at employment in each, ec service employment was strong, accelerated from last month. a lot of the internal decline was in prices paid. when youore stark indexe the employments of . you start to see the split in the u.s. economy. the service sector is bigger. ismsome reason, manufacturing continues to enjoy a lot of attention. it probably should not get as much as the services side.
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betty: i know you are talking about credit conditions on your program. what is going on in the corporate bond market? havethe last several weeks been volatile for stocks. what is happening in credit is more dramatic. we have seen stocks blowout across the spectrum. there was an interesting note from deutsche bank this morning wondering if there would be a wave of new default. this is an area getting a lot of concern. volatility has come down in the stock market. but until the credit market follows that, i don't think people will be comfortable or happy. betty: but so far, so good? >> we are still waiting to see mnessmprovement or cal return to the credit market the way we have seen it in stocks. i don't think credit always leads and equities follow. if we don't see improvement on soon or a coming
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down of volatility and spreads, people are going to get nervous and wonder could the fed possibly hike. betty: interesting to note, julie was showing us earlier equity strategist still see a rally to the end of this year. joe: that is by and large true. a lot of strategists cut back their forecast. sachs were at 2100 on the s&p by the end of the year. last week, they cut it to 2000. after today's rally, it is 15 points away. we could get that tomorrow. it will be interesting to see if the rally continues. we are now on the longest rally since the beginning of the year, like a five-day rally. if that continues, it will be interesting to happens with year-end targets. betty: thank you, joe weisenthal. guests today include david woo of merrill lynch joining
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him in a moment. we are moments away from the closing bell. we are talking treasuries. we will be back. ♪
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betty: welcome back to the "bloomberg market day." i am betty liu. julie hyman has a check on the action right before the closing bell. julie: there are say it looks like we are going to close eyes of the session. i have been afraid to say that other days because it goes away in the last few minutes. betty: what different thing can i say? julie: it is nice to be able to
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say in the next 10 minutes, we are probably going to see the same trend because that has not always been the way recently. all three averages look like they will close near the highs of the session. what implications does that have for our trajectory? where are we in the correction? look at my bloomberg terminal and i will show you. we made the highs of the year, the record for the s&p 500, in may. from then until today, we are down about 7%, 6.7% to be exact. at the lows in august, we were down about 12.4%. we have not quite retraced 50% of that correction, but we are very close to doing so. that has almost been a resistance level as you can see on the chart. we will see if we can continue this rally beyond the five days it has lasted so far. betty: that correction, what has been the driver? julie: the driver has
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interestingly been energy stocks. energy stocks have been the single best performing group since stocks bottomed august 25. oil bottomed the day before. those have been the two leading the gains. this is oil up about 20% since then. these are oil stocks up about 10%, again, the best-performing group in the s&p. i wanted to look at correlation between stocks and oil. i found something interesting. here is the correlation. this goes back a year. we had a big surge in correlation. they had been moving more in lockstep over the past month since stocks bottomed out. interesting for a couple of reasons. energy stocks make up about 7% of the s&p 500. we makes a much of their importance, that is the actual waiting -- weighting. perhaps they reflect a broader view of what is going on in the
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global economy. what is interesting is if you go back five years, the correlation is substantially lower now. it is just we have seen this big increase in the correlation in the past couple of months. betty: julie, thank you. we will switch gears and look at the bond markets. joining us is our fixed income guru, lisa abramowicz. right now, we can borrow at zero? lisa: america can borrow for free for up to three months. this is the first time that has happened. betty: i can borrow from the government? the government can borrow from you for free. sorry. lisa: the treasury today auctioned off $21 billion of at a 0%d a 0% yield -- yield. they could have auctioned off these short-term notes for a negative yield, but they are not
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allowed to. if you look at secondary trading, there is a negative yield on one-month and three-month u.s. treasury bills. that means investors are so desperate to hold onto the short-term debt they are willing to lose money on it in order to own it. why? because you have a lot of banks, a lot of hedge funds, you name it, who need to have these short-term assets to post collateral and for whatever else. they are effectively a negative deposit rate in the u.s., even if on an official level there is not one. betty: ok. lisa: i find that interesting. it was an eye-opener for me. betty: does that give us any indication of where interest rates are going to go, what the fed is going to do? lisa: this brings me to my second point which is it is a strange, logical credit market right now. it is good news/bad news, bad
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news/bad news, what are we even talking about? at one level, you have shorter-term rates turning negative whereas the fed is still saying we are still planning to hike. don't worry, we are going to get to it. the bond market is moving away from the fed. there is a lot of concern the u.s. central bank has lost credibility in the eyes of investors. this is leading to a lot of volatility. betty: now they have lost credibility? lisa: exactly. for a long time, jamie has been a good communicator and very vocal with the level she could. this is working against her because she raised the issue of china more than the u.s. at this point, people are saying, what are they looking at? we don't even know anymore. this is becoming concerning,
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which brings us to the third point on my agenda that i found interesting. the new york fed, you can see the chart, the probability of the move. 10% for october. it is 37% for december, kind of amazing. betty: from the economists we have talked to, i don't know why they picked this month, but most said march is when you are going to see a move. at the most, i've heard people say 50/50 in december. i think maybe people picked march because it is six month away and far enough away you can make a safe guess. lisa: there's some logic to it. why would the fed want to move in december, a time when most people go on vacation? there are typically low trading volumes. it could be more disruptive to the market than if they moved at a less specific time to low
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trading volumes which brings me to my next point, which is that people have been very concerned about bond market liquidity. the new york fed posted research today that said don't worry, there is no problem. everything is great. there is no liquidity crisis. betty: to reassure the market. lisa: they looked at corporate bond trading over the past couple of years and said in some for it has become better people who want to get in and out than it used to be. this chart shows high-yield moderating -- bond trading volume. kept pace with the tremendous growth in the market but have been increasing. there seems to be apple liquidity in the markets despite what -- ample liquidity in the markets despite what people are saying. bill dudley came out last week and said we won't know if there is a bond liquidity crisis until we see it.
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there seems to be some disagreement within the new york fed itself about whether or not there is a crisis. betty: therefore, you have waning credibility of the central bank, right? there you go, conflicting signals. lisa abramowicz, our bloomberg bond reporter. that is it for me at this hour. don't go anywhere. in the next hour, "what'd you miss?" he thinkstell us what is next for global economic market. it is not good. we will be back. ♪ ♪
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(the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. ehrlich: we are moments away from the closing bell. i'm garlic food. .- scarlet fu
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joe: i'm joe weisenthal. alix: and i'm alix steel. ♪ alix: u.s. stocks closing higher, surging toward the longest rally of the year on speculation that the fed will keep interest rates lower for longer. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" scarlet: we speak to a leading expert about the face-off between china and the fed. doomsayer, mark farber, the prognosticator of him why he thinks he's right this time. mess.andy emerging-market the sector is flailing, for how far will it fall before rebounding? we ask our guest. joe: welcome to "what'd you miss?" now a

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