tv First Up With Angie Lau Bloomberg October 5, 2015 7:00pm-8:01pm EDT
jack dorsey returns to the company he founded. welcome to "first up." the asia headquarters, i am yvonne man in for angie lau. markets, to new zealand, starting off in the green, up two thirds, tracking some of the game we saw overnight, and the new zealand dollars spot pretty much flat, sitting at the four u.s. cents, and a big decision coming out today. is the view, this from all 27 economist that we surveyed. the asx 200 climbing. we see the dollars spot there. sent,lat at evan the u.s. so we will count down to that. commodities rally, we are in the weaker dollar, and coming out in 90 minutes time. let's go to japan and korea open, one hour to go. meetingstarting that
here paid expect a move not at this meeting but at the october 30 meeting. this is how things ended nikkei 225.p on the futures have come down bubut pointing to a pretty high open here this morning. dollars/yanis seeing some the dollar/yen seeing some strength. operators areouse likely to be winners. one market shut in this region. china remained shut, trading resuming on thursday. let's go to our top story now, the historic trade deal hammered out by nations. the transpacific partnership will cover about 40% of world trade and will lower tariffs on a range of products from rice and dairy to automobiles and drugs. however, the critics are already lining up. let's bring in date when weber.
really great to see you. so what are the economic implications of this deal? >> well, this deal is absolutely and enormous. it is the largest free-trade deal in 25 years. it is the largest free-trade agreement that the u.s. has ever been a part of. involved 12 countries including some really huge economies apart from the u.s., like japan and canada and australia, and the deal will really impact nearly all economic sectors within those countries, so a huge deal, really sweeping. i think a few industries that could be particularly impacted in terms of who's in trade could be agriculture, automakers, and pharmaceuticals. those are some of the big ones to watch. yvonne: yes, sweeping change, for sure, but there is a lot of criticism, particularly in congress, caitlin, because they still have to approve this deal. what are the chances for that? : yes, congress is going
to consider this probably early to mid-2016, and i think for supporters of the tpp, the timing could not be any worse, as in the u.s., trade is controversial even during normal times, and considering the deal during an election cycle will just make it even more difficult. i think the obama ministration is really going to have to push to even get a handful of democrats to sign on to the deal. democrats are more typically aligned to labor unions to oppose free trade deals, and some of the announcement today on provisions of the deal regarding tobacco and pharmaceuticals may actually alienate republicans, who have been traditional supporters, so i think the obama administration is really going to have to push. 2016 will be really difficult. it will be a big white. you bought: yes, we have got critics on both sides in congress. thank you for joining us on a wrapup of the tpp deal. for more on this, let's bring in
stephen engle. he has been bringing this -- following this for the last five years. tell us what the implications are. who will be the most impacted? stephen: biotech companies, and some have been opposed to the deal because they failed to get the extension internationally for the exclusivity of their drugs him a biologic drugs, and they wanted that to be extended internationally, because here in asia and in some of the developing nations, they have much shorter time frames, and they can get generics out there much quicker, so this could hurt them. companies like ford motor were against the team ep in particular because there was not strong or enforceable language on current the manipulation. i remember interviewing the former ford head, alan mulally, who talked about japan being a currency manipulator. the u.s. auto industry could be
hurt by this because japan will get even greater access into the u.s. market. said, u.s. farmers, they will get better access into japan. deal, which is extremely sensitive in japan, japan budged only a little bit. south korea is not in this deal largely because of the opposition from the rice farmers. there are silly elements to this. again, on the biological drugs issue, some countries like vietnam, which is in the tpp, they have benefited from having a shorter time frame for generics. this is the least developed nation of the 12 nations. they need cheaper drugs. for example, the hiv sufferers who get cheaper drugs and cheaper access. yvonne: it is about giving drugs to the developing countries. that is the big issue on the other side of the debate. the elephant not in the room but just outside of the
room is china. does this all mean? if china, for a pacific rim trade block, what does this mean that china is not involved? i want to give you a quote from president obama. the more than 95% of potential customers live outside the u.s., we cannot let countries like china right the rules of the global economy, but hasn't the u.s. been writing the global rules of the economy for so long? to seely, many people this as a counterweight to the growing influence china has and its own bilateral trade agreements with various countries. let's hear from the japan economics minister. this is what he had to say following the signing. japan minister: we take great pride in the fact that we are among those who created the , and by widening the rules, we can make the world more affluent and strengthen mutual ties. economic mean greater
security, and at the same time, it will enhance security of the pacific region and increase solidarity. hen: no matter what he says, it will be a tough fight on capitol hill and in other markets, as well. yes, president obama got asked track authority on this, but don't, it will be a difficult fight, given the election year next year. he takeaways create i will run through a few of them. japan budged a little on rice move the u.s. gave little on sugar, and that was agriculture which was also a contentious sector. canada, their dairy sector. foreign participation in the market. basically, there dairy system remained intact. yvonne: all right, stephen engle, thank you. we will talk to you more about that later wrong, and we will have more about the tpp later on, and we will hear from a secretary and what he has to say about the deal, and an executive
director will join us live at 7:30 hong kong and singapore time, 10:30 four you folks watching in sydney. headlinesome other this morning, blackstone is the latest to come out in support of china. ceos need sportsmen's as this by the obvious slowdown, humor demand remains strong among the middle class. it has stakes in real estate and the consumer sector. >> whether it was hard landing or read action, i do not think that is going to happen. yvonne: twitter founder jack dorsey has officially bowed to the pressure and will return as full-time ceo. he will also maintain charge of square. it is said the strengths outweigh any of the concerns. he is seen as defined in the company. critics say it is impenetrable
and confusing, and it has also struggled to retain users. stock has tumbled more than 20% this year. and glencore seems to be bouncing back from its nightmare week, the shares rallying in london after analysts had becerns that were found to unjustified hit the stock rose 21% in london and as much as over 70% at one point in hong kong. it has recovered it losses up this. plunged a week ago. investors, reassured saying glencore has secure access to one's to counter the fall in commodity prices. let's head back to the u.s. now, because stocks capped their longest rally of the year as markets were lifted by raw materials and rising speculation about a rate rise. let's look closer at the action with su keenan in washington. so lower for longer for the fed. wasyes, and the question
was it response to the oversold conditions for about relief with the interest rates remaining low question were it probably is a combination. the s&p 500 extended its advance to more than 5.5% over the past days, so it was a nice day. the rateswill keep low as a big driver. and commodities, we had oil back above 46 dollars, traded in new york, and also to emerging-market equities. marc faber, who publishes the gloom, doom, and boomer port says they may have waited too long to raise rates, but fund manager bill gross who was saying get off of zero just a short time ago, he says they have now become the world's central bank or perhaps made the same -- right move by standing pat, because he said the u.s. dollar needed to weaken. let's listen. gross: it has been negative
for many of the months. in 2015, there has been presumably because of a strong dollar -- manufacturing has been eroded in terms of their competitive advantage. su: now, in terms of future, they say it has from a 10% because of the weaker than expected jobs forecast last week, and attention is now shifting to earnings and how the stronger dollar has impacted some companies as well as slowing global growth. we have alcoa kicking off the season on thursday and also ge in the spotlight green it led gains in industrials, up some 5% after one investor disclosed he is taking a $2.5 billion day in he made the think ceo, jeffrey ml, to raise the stock price. we also saw shares rising high.
says it'sank risk/reward position has become more balanced, and finally, yvonne, what we have in terms of projections for earnings they believe the s&p 500 members dropped 6.9% in the third quarter in terms of profit. we shall see. yvonne: yes, and some people still think we will be ending in the red for the s&p, cutting this forecast even further. su keenan joining us live from new york, thank you. up next, the s&p is on a roll, but our next guest says investors should be cautious. from chicago when we return. ♪
called a very serious and tragic event. however, he also said the attack was called in by afghan forces. u.s. wasat the attempting to pass responsibility on to the afghan government. carried out more rates in syria amid reports that fighters locked onto planes in nato member turkey. they warned they would protect the airspace at any cost after they shadowed f6 teens for almost six minutes along the f-16s border -- shadowed from a six minutes along the syrian border. secretary of state john kerry said they would have been within their rights to shoot them down. and sharing the nobel peace their workdicine or on treatments that involved a drug that has nearly eradicated river blindness, while another discovered a medicine that will
significantly reduce the death rate for malaria. the committee said their work reduced human suffering immeasurably. well, let's return to the markets now. oil gaining for a third day after data showed the number of rings and the u.s. falling, while alcoa what surged the most in nearly four years after signing a $1 billion supply deal with airbus been the stock has rallied percent and the surprise investors to split its business up. 9.3 3% up overnight, and ge led industrial gains in the u.s., rising 5.3%, and the s&p capped its longest rally this year, up nearly 2% on speculation that the fed will delay the rate hike, and let's get more with jack, who joins us now from chicago. jack, really great to see you. let's talk about wall street. the longest winning streak we have seen this year.
has the worst been priced into shares now? jack: well, i think for right now, perhaps it has. we had a bit of a bounce back from an oversold condition. we also tested those lows that we hit act in august, so i do think that at least from a technical standpoint, i can we rationale for this bounceback very near term. however, it does beg a broader question, and that is does the fed really have our back? i would love to say yes. but they really do not have much firepower to protect risktakers in the event things go south on this economy. yvonne: so how are you seeing the fed respond to all of this now? have they missed he window in september? should we have hiked rates be sore -- before we saw the disappointing number? jack: they should have tried to
normalize and get back to fair value, if they could. the certainly are not crisis conditions, those conditions that really precipitated the that moved to essentially zero in the first place, but that said, now that we are starting to get this weakness, i think it is at the point where the fed can start tightening, unfortunately, so now we just have to hope. with alliving around of our spare tires and hope we do not get a blowout. yvonne: we hope we do not get a blowout also. the will it he december, as the fed has mentioned, or is it priced in march, as it seems? we have to wait another six months? jack: it is data dependent. the fed is data dependent and market dependent, so now what we do, unfortunately, our next strategy for the fed is hope, because there is very little that they can do to help stimulate growth in the event that economic conditions turned down. i think that most recent jobs that thees show
economic weakness that we are seeing globally is starting to laugh up on our shores, -- lap up on our shores, and there is little left for the head to try to stimulate, so if you look at the alternate strategies that the fed has concocted over the qe1, qe2, qe3, operation twist, what we are seeing is the market reaction and investor reaction to each of those subsequent responses has been muted, to a point now where qe3 was never created with much enthusiasm at all, at least from inflation expectations, and so mike and aaron is that we could backdrop startc to weaken, and the fed would be left with the much just cheerleader outfits and pom-poms
to try to get investors and business leaders to get the economy going again. how do you jack, play it then? if there is less upside for stocks, does that mean commodities are just going to see more uncertainty? right. we reduced our risk. we raise some cash in august. we are sitting with a pretty high level of short-term positions for us, and generally we are long-term investors. we like tuesday fully invested, but we have a fair amount of cash here as look at a market that is still overvalued relative to media levels, and an economy now that we thought was positive, we are now wondering about. credit conditions are worsening. as credit spreads and high-yield bonds have deteriorated, and momentum broke down, so all of those ingredients suggest for us know, it is probably a pretty risky time to be fully invested.
while we are willing to miss an opportunity, what we want to try to do is avoid a significant downtrend, and given the potential for economic deterioration, and we are not saying it is a likelihood, but not that an aerial, i am sure how financial risktakers are going to be able to handle put.aving the yellen if we go back to the 1990's and the early 2000, we had the , butspan and the bernanke without the firepower, it is like our big brother is the 90-pound weakling, like we will not be able to defend ourselves on the playground. eve on: yes, lacking some firepower and lacking some really good firepower could we appreciate your joining us. well, coming up next, twitter sticks to what it knows and brings back jack dorsey as a permanent fixture.
has again criticize the world cup draw. and england fighting for two places. elsewhere, japan is preparing for the usa, a match that could see the team win three games yet still be knocked out of the tournament. faces south africa before the japan game. well, let's get more on twitter now, because jack dorsey fought tooth and nail but has finally been persuaded and will return to the company he founded. he had been there in an interim role, but now, it is permitted it let's bring in our bloomberg news technology reporter. adam, it was good to see you. he really did not want it, so what changed his mind? well, this was a job and yet been telling people it was something he wanted, and it issue was whether he was going
to be able to hold on to his role as ceo of the payment company square that he founded later after he had founded twitter, so those issues were resolved, and he is going to be the ceo of both companies, and he comes to twitter at a very interesting time. there is a lot of challenges faced in the company, so he is going to have his work cut out for him. elon: so what challenges will he have to address to reverse twitter's fortunes? biggest one is user growth. twitter is kind of an oddball aoduct or those who are not hard-core user, difficult to navigate, so
♪ is 7:30 here in hong kong, and we are taking a look at a pretty gloomy day on this tuesday morning. we are 30 minutes away from the opening in japan and south korea. on your tv, your mobile, an online, you are watching "first up." the top stories trending this hour, u.s. stocks completed their longest rally of the year
on speculation the fed will hold off on raising rates in 2015. the s&p 500 rose almost 2%, for a fifth day of gains, rebounding from its worst quarter since 2011. there were disappointing jobs data. glencore shares rallied the most on record in london after analyst had concerns over solvency issues being unjustified. the commodity trader has recovered its losses after the stock plunged a week ago. it's ceo has reassured investors , saying glencore has secure access to funds to counter the falling commodity prices. of talks have finally ended with an agreement on the transpacific partnership to the accord covers 40% of world trade and lowers tariffs on a range of products from gary to rise, i do appeals to drugs. critics say it threatens and in washington
alone, both sides of congress have denounced the deal, and china remains outside. let's see what the tbp means for this part of the world with a secretary executive director. allen, really great to see you. thanks for joining us. on this very historic deal, we talked about how this is going to be for the global economy. how submitted is this in your eyes? alan: it is big. it is important. no doubt about that, but it has got a long way to go yet. they have signed the deal, but it will probably spend probably a noisy quite a year going thend the legislatures of 12 countries, so we are not there yet, but it is the biggest thing. yvonne: yes, this is the biggest one we have seen since nafta, which also faced quite a bit of opposition at that time.
and theongress going to president going to actually try to fight some of these critics, because we see them lining up from both sides? it is always difficult, a trade deal like hurt but basically, it can some a specific industries and some specific workforces, but it is likely to be very positive, and, of course, it is going to help consumers, and that is always the thing that is quite hard to get across, but that is up to the legislators to do. even on: yes, it seems like a mixed bag when it comes to certain sectors. what about concerns for the american profits? we have heard from ford, saying there needs to be more regulations when it comes to currencies, does the japanese automakers seem to be benefiting from the yen it. should there be more enforcement on that? : it was never going to happen.
it was not therefore currency control or currency a group. that should be happening through the imf and through the world fx markets, and different companies have hurt and helped at various times in the cycle, but this is not going to affect that. yvonne: all right, well when it comes to the process of other trade deals, as well, you the domestic ratification process with the wto with the trade facilitation agreement. of thecent developer tbp, is that going to help expedite that? alan: it is very difficult to progress unilaterally through the wto, so we have got the tpp agreement, and then all monkeys to asian and some other countries, we also got the economic partnership, where there is an attempt to try to get something signed by the end of this year, and, actually, we do not want to see one going off
as sort of a rich man's club, and the other going off as sort of a developing club. we want to see them together, and this is a free-trade area for asia and the pacific, so it is an untidy world, and that is just the way we have to operate, but this will probably give a competitive boost to some of these other agreements and possibly the atlantic agreement, as well. yvonne: alan,- intellectual property turned out being one of the lasting issues, and what have you heard from the response from the business community on these sectors? alan: well, you know there has been quite a bit of objection in some parts of the business community, but it is really teal early to know what the responses should be. this agreement in principle was going to be big. it got the u.s. and japan and others together for the first
time. in principle, it should also have been a way to start moving agricultural trade, which has been very slow around the world. i am not sure it is actually achieving that, and then thirdly, these new generation issues, and that is where we will look at the texts to see if it is really setting a standard for the future. yvonne: all right, thank you for joining us. the secretary executive director. thank you. we will be watching how all of these play into the markets across asia. has beenuliet, who monitoring trade in australia and new zealand. good morning. reporter: let's get a reaction to this historic deal. the australian government saying it is needed to drive growth in the industries, and we are seeing markets adding to yesterday's game after the s&p 500 in the u.s. continued its longest rally of 2015. we also have oil, base metals,
, and you can see in australia, and early pickup of 1% adding to that nearly 2% gain he saw on the asx 200 yesterday, and the new zealand market also stronger in early trade, up by 8/10 of 1%. let's take a look at some of the stocks that are likely to be affected by this tpp deal. we are going to be watching one company that is currently unchanged, down by about 1/10 of 1%, i should say, and select theest in australia and dairy industry, also coming under a little bit of pressure, but the mining stocks on the back of that big rally effect coming through in the u.s. looking very strong today. of course, the rba holding its rate decision in australia, no change expected, and the bank of japan also starting its two-day policy meeting today. : thank you. and speaking to bloomberg up us
to be as betty liu, it will help growth. take a listen. is something that has been discussed for quite a long a successfulhave milestone that we have reached. that is really good news, and as far as hong kong is concerned, any time these become more free, it must be good for us, and if that is the case, i think we could increase the volume of trade around the world, and that will certainly be good for china, as well. betty: even marginalizing china in the pacific region? john: i ensure that the tpp is not intended to be exclusive. the whole intention is to and to make the world more free in a multilateral cents. trade as part of the hong kong economy, but you're also a
center. people look at hong kong as one of the mere on agile centers around the world, but one of the things that people know about is you are closely tied to the u.s. economy, right, with the currency, with the investment you have in hong kong, so here in the u.s., we may not see the fed raise interest rates as early as we thought. i mean, are you worried about a fed rate hike? john: we are concerned about a rate hike. we would like to have a certain going up orrtainty, not going up, and let's be clear about that. then the businessman can make a decision as to how they want to manage the business situation, so we look forward to a decision at some stage. y: but would you like more clarity out of the federal reserve? john: definitely. more clarity would be better for the businessmen to make commercial decisions.
that he: everyone wants more clarity. the fed says more clarity, but it never seems to be enough. do you expect opera it to have some real-world impact on hong kong? you have analyst saying that it could cause interest rates to spike in hong kong, and that could mean happy markets could fall 10%, 30%, who knows? -- it could mean property markets could fall 10%, 30%. who knows? john: i think a rate hike is going to send a different message, but initially, the rate hike is going to be quite small. i do not think the impact would be huge, but in the longer term, people would take that into consideration and not to assume that the rate would stay at zero forever. betty: so what do you worry about than question of is on your mind? john: the biggest worry is really the demand, in terms of demand for goods in the world. the whole of europe is in
recession. japan is not growing much. the u.s. is growing, albeit slowly. without more demand in the world, i think a lot of the emerging economies will suffer. : time now for a look at some of the top corporate stories on the bloomberg terminal. here is the. -- zeb. the the 10-year lease of first eight 380 with singapore airlines expires in 2017. the airline could return the plane to the group who owns it or negotiate a lower rate to keep it. airbus has been struggling to sell new a3 80's. jaguar land rover sought sales soar more than 61% in september. record demand for suvs there is helping to offset the slowdown in china. had theirover brand
best september ever for u.s. deliveries and a record for sales in the first nine months of the year. tata motors shares surged in reaction. and explain options to fix the 11 million he's so cars which have emissions cheating software installed at books like an, and they say it could be from a simple software upgrade and switching to new cars, which could cost over $11,000 per car. he must present a plan to german regulators on wednesday, but the response may vary from country to country. coulday the scandal threaten the company's very existence, but the blackstone ceo says the impact will only be temporary. mr. schwartzman. has is a company that amazing consumer support. not this week, not this month, but ongoing, and they make
court on november 13 and says he is next to be exonerated. fled with executives their clothing in tatters after workers were protesting the planned job cuts. fencecale than eight-foot at the airport, and tempers boiled as the airline said it may have to make it first forced dismissals after talks with the flight crew failed, and the parent company says it would take legal action over what it called violence, and in southeast asia, reaching thailand, authorities in the south that children, the elderly, and those with respiratory diseases should stay indoors as air quality deteriorated to hazardous levels. meanwhile, banks and singapore are reviewing their operations to make it harder for andanies involved in slash
burn processes to get funding. there are palm oil predation's who are accused of causing the fires. tol, the latest big made confirm its confidence in china, dell, despite concerns of the slowdown. they remain upbeat. amen joins us. why the optimism? it is the largest market outside the u.s., and to underscore its importance, michael dell visited asia last month and pledged to invest $125 billion in the mainland over the next five years, and they estimate that estimate will help create about one million jobs. let's discuss that. hereresident of the dell joins us. good to have you with us. china, but ann
economic slowdown and structural challenges. what makes you think that your investment in china will pay off? amit: china is absolutely the second-biggest market for us. it.re committed to the consumption pattern in china remains very strong. becomingng, society is aspirational, and we believe this is the time for us to do in china for china, so it is the next stage of our evolution in china, where we have more r&d and more development. affecting how companies spend, and spending on i.t. always gets impacted. : china is interesting. if you look at some of the drivers for our business, so much of chinese society has become digital. 30% of the commerce is moving towards e-commerce soon, and anytime there is more digitization happening, be it o2o or business-to-business,
more data centers are required, more power is required, more efficiencies are required, and those are the core drivers for our business, so more security concerns coming into china, and we see a lot of positive drivers for our business in china, not only today, but for many years to come. haslinda: of the negative, a slower china is causing a lot of havoc outside, for the rest of the world, as well. when china devalued its currency, there was so much volatility, and you are doing business in countries around the region that have been impacted by that. how are you coping with the volatility and with the currency weakness across the region? it: listen, we can only focus on our customers and business drivers. digital, becoming more every society integrated, and that is good news. as far as china is concerned,
china is absolutely from a consumption story, it is only going to get aspirational. haslinda: currency hedging options. is that what you're looking at, with the volatility? t: we do some hedging. our focus again is to make sure we can protect our business but run more of our business out of this region, so we have 48,000 team members in asia. almost half of our team members are in asia, so asia is pretty important, not only from a market perspective but also as a geography where we get our work so weor our customers, feel pretty good. if you see health care, we are number one globally, and if you walk into any hospital or insurance, more than likely one out of three chances that we are actually going to be servicing them from here in the region or from the u.s., so we feel pretty good about what this region's potential is. areinda: we know that you
involved in restructuring, and we're looking at your strategy, and you have said before it would take three to five years. where are you in this restructuring? amit: we have shipped the largest in the world, larger than ibm and others combined, so that is the latest in the infrastructure. we were goinghat to be in a private setting, we will be countercyclical, so we have hired people across the world, 300 in the region, and we are not stopping. but the question is profitability. how will that impact your bottom line, your profitability? : any business, we have to make sure we can continue to invest and read reward, and we can be more patient. the pc industry is going through consolidation. the top three players have a 55%
share, and in three years or so, it will be 80% share, so this consolidation story is continuing to be stronger and stronger as time progresses. so in terms of growth, what are you looking at? what number is viable? we continue to say we will be faster than the market. our intention is to make sure we can gain 100 basis points of last 10ross, and the quarters, we have been able to do so, and this is our 11th quarter, and we are confident we are going to do that, so this is a good industry. of businesses is on, and new strategies have to be invented to create defense against the new disruptors. i will give you another example. one word alliance, the airline alliance, 20 plus airline companies. how did they connect?
they connect through our integration cloud. several trillion dollars or under cyber security management with us. so these are the new frameworks in which dell is bringing more capabilities and the marketplace. arere confident that these the drivers for the future and that this business will continue to be good for us. haslinda: ok, joining us this morning here in singapore. avon? thank you so much. we will take a look at one of the winners of the transatlantic is the partnership. we will have details when "first up" returns. ♪
a big logistics company, and this was on the back of the tpp. saying, watch these logistics players per you and they may be lucrative opportunities, given the increased trade. it has done quite well, the biggest by market value, up over the past year. reporter: i am looking at an operator of a chain of drugstores in japan and which also sells prescription medicine, which you would expect in a drugstore. operating profit is up, 3.6 $2 billion, also having a good year, up. yvonne: all right, we will see how things go. the stock exchange. these are based on news events meet we believe back in an hour to see how the two stocks we have here have done. thatn the show, more on
historic tpp agreement. specifically, what about the elephant in the room, china? we are also counting down to the opens in japan and korea. tv,her you're watching on online, or on your phone, this is "first ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring
mark: i am mark halperin. john: i am john heilemann. with all due respect to new york city, tonight, mark and i are at the center of the universe for real. it is the early-stage special, sports fans. i am here in iowa. these are two states that make up 1.4% of the entire population of the united states but have an outsized role in determining who will be the next president. let's start with the activity where you are in the granite state.