tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg October 7, 2015 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i am david gura. a dramatic twist in the beer wars. sab miller turns down $100 billion. will the bidding go higher? i will talk to the cfo of the moscow stock exchange about investing in russia where stocks are up this year even as the country copes with sanctions and the oil prices. larry summershy thinks the fed should hold off on raising interest rates for now. first, let's head to the markets desk with julie hyman. julie: we are seeing a rally going on today. at least for now. stocks have been fluctuating because of what's been going on in the oil markets. you see all three major averages are hanging onto their gains.
care is the best performing group today. biotech has been such an underperformer recently. it looks like some buyers have been coming back in today. energy up .9%. asecom and utilities lower we have seen rates on the rise today. let's take a look at the 10-year note. there was a tenure option earlier today -- 10 year option earlier today. we are seeing some selling of treasuries. the yield pushing higher to 2.07 percent. the euro is the most notable mover. german production declining in august. that is leading some investors to say we could see more quantitative easing. that has been putting pressure on the euro. a quick round-trip of the commodities today. we have been seeing volatility
in oil prices come unchanged right now. after antook a plunge unexpected build in inventories could copper futures the highest in two weeks. we saw a slump in stockpiles. changed here. it has also been volatile today. the volatility has been in a tight range. volatility, but overall, not a lot of change. david: thank you very much. let's get a check of our headlines. union beganropean new operations day. smuggling, suspected of migrants -- an agreement to crack down on migrants who who are refused entry so they can be sent home swiftly. angela merkel reminded members of the challenges they face. >> speaking at a time when europe faces enormous challenges.
i put it to you that this is a trial of historic measure. mark: about 40% of people who failed to obtain asylum or residency in the european union have been sent home. kevin mccarthy is again trying to walk back remarks suggesting the long-running house benghazi investigation into hillary clinton is motivated by politics. he insisted today the probe is not political and said it is only meant to uncover the truth about the 2012 attack. he is considered the frontrunner to replace john boehner. warships in the caspian sea fired cruise missiles at islamic state targets in syria. the latest of element schema week after russia began its airstrikes in syria, is longtime ally. u.s. defense officials accused russia of targeting forces opposed to president assad.
detailsearning new about the deadly shooting at a tiny community college in oregon. the gunman killed himself inside a classroom after he was shot and wounded by two plainclothes officers. they spotted him in the doorway of a building. he immediately fired at the officers. nine people were killed in that attack. president obama is heading to oregon friday to meet with the victims families. it is getting even uglier at fee ifa. sepp blatter has been suspended for 90 days after demands from four major sponsors, including coca-cola coming else and be set -- coca-cola, mcdonald's and visa. he planned to leave in february after a special election. swiss authorities are investigating fifa.
that is a look at our first word headlines. you can always find the latest news on bloomberg.com. four ab inbev, that their time is not the charm. sab miller rejected their $100 billion takeover offer, saying it substantially undervalued the london-based brewing company. ab inbev's ceo did not say if it would go hostile. efforts, we've been unable to establish meaningful engagement. today's believes that revised proposal is at a level that the board of sab miller should recommend. david: what is their next move? joining me now is talk and fox, an analyst with bloomberg intelligence. .- duncan fox there is a fascinating piece on the terminal about sab miller's
ceo. duncan: from their point of view , they spend a lot of money over the last 15 years in building up and emerging-market business in africa and latin america. great demographics, young population and growing gdp. they are where you should get growth. they believe they are not paying a high premium for stock. david: algeria has a role here. ria has a role here. >> they want the companies to talk. -- it could go higher. they are going 27%. if they could get stock in a larger group.
they would like the companies to talk. david: you mentioned emerging markets. that is so central to this deal. there's been a lot of discussion about how koppelman treat an acquisition this might be -- how complementary and acquisition like this might be. >> if you look at latin america, there are major markets that ab inbev don't have. it would be useful if they could get a foothold there. one area that would cause trouble is china. they will try to slice and dice the market. that would be the one major market where they may not get a number one position. david: let's talk about regulation and what those hurdles might be.
fast. -- vast. in china, they will be automatic. when you have 30% of the global volume come every regulator will have a look at this one. just in case they've got too much power in any particular market. i'm sure the regulators will be busy. david: what is the timetable going forward? there is talk of a hostile bid. bythey have to make a bid the 14th. hostile.ey go tot of the reason for them do that is to extend that deal. sab miller has to ask for that
extension and they don't seem to want to talk. david: thank you very much. duncan fox joining us from london. coming up in the next way , the bloomberg politics team hits the road to find out what voters think about the 2016 presidential hopefuls. their take on hillary clinton. hereof year for the russian a doubleit with women. theill speak to the cfo of moscow stock exchange. -- with a double whammy. crew distal trading near $50 a barrel. crude is still trading near $50 a barrel. ♪
david: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. i am david gura. first story. united auto workers union threatening to go on strike against fiat chrysler tonight. a proposede rejected contract. they want an end to the two-tier pay system. no growth at monsanto. they will eliminate 2600 jobs come about 12% of its workforce as part of a cost-cutting plan. the company said profits will be week through 2016 amid the commodity slump. compete with to
facebook, making articles on smart phones load faster. they promised their mobile pages project will load mobile webpages almost instantly. you can always get more business news at bloomberg.com. let's go back to the markets desk. some company movers. julie: other company movers. tesla is one of them. after bear cut the stock to a neutral from an outperform -- you can see the shares down by about 3%. all of this related to its new suv, the model x. it's ramp-up of that vehicle will likely be slower than the market is estimating and it could impact the 2015-2016 vehicle delivery estimates. which is some analysts already
said were quite lofty. the gap between the average price target in the stock. gap over time between that and the stock price. the stock has been trading below the average price target for about a year as the stock has gone down and as analysts have gotten more optimistic on balance. david: how about the traditional carmakers? julie: they are doing well. ford and gm have finally been rallying for seven straight sessions. gm up another 2.5% or so today. this is seem is any particular catalyst. doesn't seem there is any particular catalyst. i have the chart over the seven sessions. not that exciting. surge been an interesting , both of them gaining by more than 10%.
let's switch it over to a year to date. this gives you an idea of the fact that it is a rebound. mover is gotable pro. this has to do with an analyst call. the stock is trading at a record low, the lowest since its ipo after morgan stanley slashed its price target dramatically to $35. it had been $62. the analysts saying there is weak demand for the session. the company is cutting prices. analysts are less optimistic for 2016. really dramatic move there. david: thank you very much. we turn now to politics. what the democratic voters think this is whatce -- they had to say about hillary
clinton. >> three words or fewer. >> experience and knowledge. >> experience and caring. >> still impressive. you can call any of those three democrats for help, which one would you call? >> hillary. she seems like the most genuinely -- >> she is well-connected. >> she is such an accomplished female leader. she has seen how the system works. she might have a better chance of getting things accomplished quicker. she did not skip over any learning curve whatsoever. >> a woman stepping into a male arena. she can hold their own -- hold her own with them. >> my opinion is more general. articulately about her positions without having that edge or scorned woman
thing. i think that can put off a lot of male voters. david: let's bring in mark halperin. i'm struck there how much of this is about her personality. mark: a lot of reaction. they did not have a problem with her, but they were worried in a general election that other voters would. democrats like their choices. they are not looking at the republicans. about --ave concerns most revolve around personality. david: i'm struck by how she brought up gun control this week. she got emotional talking about benghazi. how effective has to like that been? mark: she is back on offense with benghazi.
do better when they are talking about something they believe in. , both focushire groups showed she has a problems. when i asked them who is going to win the new hampshire primary, heller clinton that hillary clinton won in 2008. all of them said bernie sanders would win. a lot of them say i like bernie sanders a lot but hillary clinton will win. think sanders can win, the more dangerous it is for her. sanders being outside the mainstream, there is still this joe biden factor. what kind of factor is he playing? >> in the polls, he is doing ok.
if he does get in the race, they think he might go up. in the focus groups, it was surprising, voters were not interested in joe biden. they thought he was a week much --doesn't stand given how ambivalent he is about people made the point, maybe he should be vice president. this should not be vice president. because of the personal tragedy, he is not really the right frame of mind to even think about running for president. david: thank you very much. mark halperin. ahead, as russia gets more involved in syria, how does its economy hold up? ♪
david: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. missilesres cruise from the caspian sea at targets in syria today and ashton carter said the u.s. will not cooperate with moscow -- this could lead to another geopolitical crisis for russia. has those sanctions -- have those sanctions had on the russian economy? evgeny fetisov, thank you for being here. let me ask you about the exchange and who is investing in it. evgeny: it is the global exchange. we consider ourselves to be one of the leading exchanges. we trade most asset classes.
commodities and whatever else is there. are thestors we see usual suspects. come up 40% onrs the equities market and derivatives market. david: i mentioned the sanctions levied against russia. what effect have they had? what effect has that had on the markets? evgeny: there's the point of view that the sanctions were good for russia. the russian economy gets prepared for the drop in the oil price. russia started deleveraging itself earlier. david: out of necessity. evgeny: because of the sanctions affects. russia was already deleveraging
when oil dropped. russia is not in a crisis. it is in a recession, but in fairly good form. fullyble is free-floating. it is a first line of defense. if you look at this sector, think about construction -- the exporters are doing fine. the oil prices are where they were before. the government is doing reasonable steps -- david: investors will see the news about russia in syria and worry about instability. beginning to trickle down? evgeny: i would not say so. we are the central market. we are staying away from politics, focused on our function.
whenwe care about is investors get in and get out. david: we have the head of the russia standard bank -- he said funding costs have gone up. up, but wey had gone think this is a temporary spike. it is below 6%. the central bank using the target 4% by 2017, we will get there. the funding costs will decline. that will spur growth earlier that people anticipate. david: thank you very much. the cfo of the moscow exchange. coming up, we will take a look at the latest read on the oil markets. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,
headlines. this is the bloomberg market day. i am david gura. the weekend attack in the northern city in afghanistan left 22 people dead. the president spokesman spoke to reporters earlier today. >> this morning, president obama spoke by telephone with doctors to apologize and express his condolences for the staff and patients who were killed an injured when a u.s. military airstrike mistakenly struck a hospital in afghanistan. president has promised doctors without borders there will be a thorough and objective accounting of the facts. technology will slow or stop
trains to avoid crashes. rail cars install the equipment by the end of the year. amtrak and union pacific are threatened to suspend some service at the deadline is not delay. they've had seven years to install the equipment. vice president biden has not set yet whether he is running for president but he is being urged to do so by a new ad. it focuses on tragedy in the vice president's life. ad includes audio of a speech the vice president delivered at yale university recalling how is life was shaped by the accident. biden may make a decision about a white house run as early as this weekend. some relief for south carolina. the worst has been averted at a dam that was threatening to break. some people are now returning to their homes. water is flowing towards the sea. to more flooding. eastern kentucky university
counseling classes after the threat of violence. the school discovered graffiti to "kill all" this weekend. -- graffiti threatening to "kill all" this weekend. you can always find the latest news on bloomberg.com. david: commodities markets just closed. let's look at the biggest movers. oil lower after a government report showed inventories climbed and copper rising as we are seeing tighter supplies corn futures lower after an eight week high. the big story today is oil prices. was on bloomberg earlier today and said there is good reason to be bearish on oil. bullish data from the api inventories yesterday.
those carried forward. it is data point driven. metals --line for new fundamentals that are bearish. david: let's bring in jack gerard. let me ask you about something else he said. he forecasted oil could be around $60-$80 a barrel. jack: we have to differentiate between the short-term and long-term. longer-term, the future is bright. there will be increased demand on a global scale. demand destruction occurred as a result of the economies which cut back the projections on economic growth. longer term, we will continue to in terms ofh market being able to provide the global marketplace.
one of the key questions we are working on in washington is will the united states be allowed to export crude and thus participate in that market as that demand continues to rise. congress is expected to vote on friday. lifting the export ban. those things are tied to get up and trying to send signals to the market place. the u.s. could be a contributor to global stability as a result of producing energy at home. david: that is something you've been working on. you have mounted a big advertising campaign. why now when prices are fairly low? jack: if you look back historically, this ban was put in place in 1970. it is clearly a public policy that has outlived its time, if you will. because of that, if you look at what's happening around the globe, the ministration has negotiated a deal with the
iranians. they will allow iran axis to the global marketplace to export the product by lifting sanctions on iran. we believe american producers should have the same opportunity. we should be able to access the global marketplace. now is the time to lift that ban and bring stability to the globe. we have many of our allies that are saying send us your energy. we have now been able to produce record amounts. we continue to do that, create wealthy jobs at home and contribute to that global stability. david: what are you hearing from refiners about this ban? represent most of the refiners. just like you were able to , wert refined product today should also be allowed to export
the raw material, crude oil. that a freeand market is good for everybody. there are a few who would like advantage byket artificially depressing the price and allowing them to achieve margin. most people understand that free trade is good. it is good for american consumers. a number of recent reports show that the price of gasoline could drop as much as $.12 a gallon by putting more oil into the global market. david: we were just talking about russia and its involvement in syria. in a neighborhood where there are a lot of oil producers. --t you political events are it goes back to the requests our friends in europe who say they believe the united states could bring more
stability to the global marketplace while allowing us to put our energy in the global market place. as you look around the world today, one thing that is brought as much stability as we've had is the fact that our production in the u.s. has risen 3-4000,000 barrels a day -- million barrels a day. as we look around the room, we think we have a unique opportunity, a once in a lifetime opportunity to be at the epicenter of energy power. that will require us being forward thinking, require us to come together and to take astantage of this v resource and play in the global marketplace. so that we worry less about these volatile regions around the world. outd: we had shale pulling
around alaska. how worrisome is that to you? >> public policy has become a big part of that. you listen to shell's announcement, they were disappointed with our first well. the bigger concern is the uncertainty. inability to make decisions. that uncertainty is a big factor today in the united states. let me bring you back to the crude export ban issue. today, we have bipartisan support from democrats and republicans in the house. unfortunately, the ministration is saying we are not sure we want to go there yet. signalsertainty since -- we are very concerned and frustrated that the ministration is not been able to capture the vision of the potential of the
united states energy production. we could join together and get beyond our petty politics and labels and say what is in the united states best interest. those uncertainties in public policy have been frustrating and not helpful to overall job creation and energy production. david: thank you very much. jack gerard with the american petroleum institute. coming up in the next 20 minutes , just how strong is the u.s. economy? we will hear from larry summers. jared leto crashes the party. we have all the biggest headlines from vanity fair's new establishment summit. 's losses energies 'sin -- loss is energy toss
david: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. i am david gura. it's time for our -- shares of yum! brands plunging today. the company missed on third-quarter profit. they get half the revenue from china. kfc, pizza hut and taco bell coping with the of a food supplier investigation and a slowing chinese economy. to make it easier for its 80 million monthly users to buy concert tickets. the company is buying online to get a company to comply -- fly.et company ticket
the deal is a game changer, taking the company beyond its radio roots. mattel needs a savior and is banking on a a female superheroes. they are being designed by women. sales of barbie have been slumping for years. some of that was will be a unveiled for the first time this year at your comic on. you can always get more business news at bloomberg.com. let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest on xbox. -- tech stocks. julie: i hope the proportions will be different than in that picture. let's take a look at the tech movers. twitter on the rise today. it has made new highs throughout the session. we have raised their stake in
twitter to about 5%. the stock has been very volatile . jack dorsey will take over as permanent ceo. the stock up by 7%. adobe systems going in the opposite direction. forecast coming in below analyst estimates. they are blooming currency fluctuations. -- blaming currency fluctuations. ceo saying we will need to invest. apple is feeling some pain today. there's a report by an analyst that it's china iphone sales are weaker than had been anticipated. if we have a chance to look at i've beenrg terminal, an tracking the s&p 500 versus apple. here is the s&p, moved higher session -- apple has not
tracked along with that rebound. david: thank you very much queri. federal reserve policymakers have a lot to consider before raising rates. larry summers sat down with stephanie ruhle and david westin and started with what he thinks the fed should do next. there is no reason to raise rates until you see the whites of inflation's eyes. i look at the data out there and i don't see inflation as close to the horizon. we have to be focused on making sure we are doing everything we can to grow this economy. i talked before about public investment. there is a lot we can do to spur private investment.
government does need to recognize confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus. wages are not going up because the power is with employers. there are more people looking for jobs than there are jobs. the power is with employers. they don't have to pay more. aton't see how you can look third-quarter growth forecasts running at 1.5%, that is close to stall speed. at stall speed and you slow down , it is not good what happens next. david: with me now is carl riccadonna. let me get your reaction. interest rates. don't herbert kohl. hurry.n't hurry -- don't hold. the inflation data are not going to move in the right direction.
at best, we can hope it holds steady. headline inflation is now just barely above zero. optically come even though the fed says we are focused on the core, it's hard to justify that we are seeing the whites of their eyes when you have headline inflation in negative territory. in general, the economy is slow-moving. inflation is a lagging economic indicator. we should have to menace confidence that inflation will move slowly and not accelerate dramatically higher. -- we should have tremendous confidence. david: the power is with the employers. : that is labor slack. we continue to see that. despite the unemployment rate grinding lower come on the cusp , that isng through 5%
normally a low level of an implement. that should be consistent with wage pressures. we are not seeing it. dangerous words for economist to say. every cycle is a bit different. the phillips curve has flattened and the old relationship between inflation and unemployment is bent, it has changed. we are looking at the numbers. we will know when we start to see the wage pressures. we are not there yet. that gives folks like janet yellen confidence that they can wait longer. somebody who had his eye on being fed chair -- ben bernanke he was on charlie rose last night. >> the inflation rate is central to this. inflation has been quite low. for good reasons. the fed has set a target for inflation of 2%.
it is important that they reach that target. how strong will be economy be? will continue to be growing at a keepsufficient to putting people back to work and have the economy heating up enough that inflation will move back to target? what gels closely with larry summers was saying about the speed of the economy. he said 1.5% is stall speed. we will find that out at the end of october. if we look at a moving average , we see the economy growing in the haiku percent range. as long as that momentum is sustained despite the choppiness in the quarter to quarter numbers, we should see inflation. the fed is looking at a lot of indicators.
starts to grow at a slower pace, job creation at this new slower rate, that all gears toward 2016 to initiate liftoff. it is a long path to a neutral level. they are ever so slightly using their foot off the accelerator press to the floor -- using their foot off the excel reader pushed to the floor. their foot off the accelerator pushed to the floor. the fed would be caught flat-footed. , thankcarl riccadonna you. be sure to tune in tomorrow. david westin and stephanie ruhle will sit down with ben bernanke he.
david: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. the vanity fair new establishment summit where emily chang is there on the ground talking to all the newsmakers and tech. you were talking to ed williams. emily: yes, we did speak with the cofounder of twitter. since namingerview jack dorsey permanent ceo of twitter. interesting to see his unfiltered take on how they arrived to this decision and what you think's about the fact that jack will be doing two jobs at the same time. musk does not recommend it. >> i don't think jack would recommend it either.
he has his commitments at square. it is not ideal. we don't want anyone's time split. it did not change the fact that we feel a key is the best choice. -- feel like he is the best choice. >> they did talk to a lot of outside candidates he felt jack is the best person for the job despite that he has another very important job as well. we talked to him about his relationship with jack dorsey. a lot has been written about the tension between the two of them. we asked about the state of their relationship now. ev williams is still on the board. ev: i joked that twitter is like our mutual child. we have come together and we hold this feature is our highest priority. we see i to i.
eye.e to amalie: he thinks twitter can only be better and bigger. he's optimistic about jack returning to the company. it has been an incredible couple of days here at the vanity fair summit. mark zuckerberg is talking about why he bought oculus. he thinks it is the golden age of video. video is not the ultimate experience. he thinks virtual reality is the future. how we will all be experiencing the world. an incredible moment yesterday when we had a surprise visitor while we were speaking to stewart butterfield. jared leto showed up. here?e you what are you investing in right now? >> my best investment is slack. i'm a proud investor and proud
user of the product. my e-mail list has shrunken down. emily: he is an active tech investor. we are glad we recognized him with the pink hair. an exciting couple of days at the summit. the pinkness of that here is something that will haunt me for many days to come. emily will be speaking to tim armstrong. ♪
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i'm betty liu. here's what were watching this hour. stocks have bounced around, they tried to build on afternoon gains in emerging markets and commodities surge higher. overwhelming front-runner, but what do democrats really think of hillary clinton? voters in the key early stages answer that question. verizon is now linking it's tracking ads back to aol following it's a well acquisition last year. are there going to be new privacy concerns? we are one hour to the close of trading here on this wednesday. going to head straight to the markets desk bloomberg's julie hyman has the latest. we have been bouncing around all day now. julie: we hbe