tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg October 8, 2015 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
[bell ringing] stocks closing higher, with gains in the s&p setting up for the highest closing level since october 20. is "what'de question you miss?" scarlet: we will talk to jpmorgan's chief u.s. economist. joe: plus we will talk to know baccalaureate joseph stiglitz, now the top advisor to the head of britain's labour party. how the richest all the rich are increasingly using shelters to dodge the tax man. scarlet: we begin with the markets. markets -- u.s. markets
recording the seventh day of gains. the dollar stayed weaker. treasuries briefly erased their losses before reversing to push yields back up. that thebig story is market heaves rising. the seventh straight day. another one of these days where the market started higher, looked like it would lose gains, and rally toward the end. again, much different than a few weeks ago. talk about 12 a second. that really helped the s&p gain. 15 --t: it was literally $.50 away from the 100-day moving average. yeah, you had chatter. the venezuela oil minister saying there would be an opec/non-opec meeting. blah, blah. theree idea being that was so much movement that happened on not a lot of headlines, it shows how short this market is and how ferocious the rally can be.
scarlet: absolutely. let's take our deep dive. i want to look in my bloomberg terminal here to set the scene. there is relative calm but has returned to u.s. equities. let's pull up the vix. the two sectors responsible for -- energy astress the green line. ironic, isn't it? if you zoom into the last three weeks or so, you can see the energy, materials strikes, the orange and green line have zoomed up as the underlying commodity crisis recovery and you see the sectors picking up slack. joe: and we see health care, year,we talk about all continuing to be one of the laggards. which brings me to my deep type. i want to go into my terminal. right around 1:00, we reported that netflix would raise prices by one dollar.
that caused shares to jump immediately after that. check out this -- red box you're it i put a bunch of lines on here. -- they, biotech, s&p all bottomed at the same tame netflix came out. i know that netflix pricing news cannot make biotech stocks jump. but it's interesting to see these things. correlation and causation, is very ambiguous with the markets. it shows all of these things that have been beaten down rallied at the same time. i thought it was a fascinating moment in the market. take a deepwant to dive into my terminal to look at the s&p over the last four years. the debt ceiling debate. as weas front and center heard that kevin mccarthy would no longer be the speaker of the house. what i have highlighted in 2011. remember new year's eve, everybody, and when nobody slept? in 2013, that was the other potential debt ceiling debate
there and we are well and extended off any of those issues, and joe, you are pointing out what we see here is eerily similar to what we saw in 2011. joe: there are a lot of concerns. i think the real lesson is ignore washington. keep buying. alix: what have you got on earning season? scarlet: alcoa reporting adjusted earnings off seven cents per share, below the analyst estimate of $.13. also it reaffirmed its global aluminum demand projection for the full year ended sees north american automotive production sent -- four %. it sees a deficit even with that forecast.
production growth is predicted to be up 1% to 2%. that does not some a blazing growth at all. this is an end-user market. they are splitting off their businesses into two. where they provide to forward, that's where the market is going to be, so weakness is not good in that area. joe: alcoa is falling, off 3% on the news. scarlet: it's a pretty dramatic chart. you can see all of these charts and the ones we just went into on our twitter handles. market saw how the reacted to federal reserve minutes. we want to see how a top view them.s going to we have michael from rowley, top j.p. morgan economist, in the studio. joe: did anything stand out to you apart from what you heard of the september press conference? michael: not really. a surprise.
we heard a few people from the fomc say, hey, it was a really close call. yellen did not seem to convey that in her press conference. it turns out i think she gave a pretty accurate picture, because it sounds like most of the committee was fully on board with her pretty dovish message. more dovish rhetoric, the indianapolis fed president saying he is open to more negative fed rates. what do you think about that? do you think that is warranted? not think he is representative of anyone other than himself. yellen, you may recall, was asked about this, and she said we are not considering negative rates at all. he is about to retire, too. i would not make too much of that. i think the fed has pretty high resistance to going negative on interest rates. keep in mind we are not talking about more stimulus. the rest of the committee is talking about paradigms.
speaking about stimulus, drum beats,s quiet morgan stanley and others. could we see qe4? you see qe4 versus the vix? freakinghis is people out at market volatility rather than fundamentals. is this anywhere in the cards for you? if we are talking about a theoretical conversation -- joe: yeah. michael: let's keep it here. if we see a big disappointment, it off thel take table. i think you we four is a last resort for the fed. i think you would really have to see material deterioration, back above 6%oing or something. at this point, very theoretical.
what does that say about feature check three of the economy that we can go from when is the fed going to raise rates to maybe there will be qe4? beenel: yeah, we have running pretty consistently around 200,000 on payrolls. you have to keep in mind, when hundred 40,000 is well above trends. but we did have a pretty 200,000 todownshift, 100 40,000. so, i think that really took people by surprise. joe: there is this debate going on right now that i am very interested -- and it seems like a silly question, but is policy loose or neutral right now? everybody thinks because rates are near zero, obviously they are loose. where do you come back on this question? policy is think
accommodative. it is loose. unemployment has come down a percentage point. generally you think if the policy is loose, you are taking it out from the labor market. i think by that simple measure, policy is loose. you look at the interest, the shadow funds rate, it looks like we are tightening. even though the shadow funds rate is in negative territory, it has been increasing. -- the: these shadow shadow funds rate should be increasing. that is natural. what is really difficult to understand or to model and get a good sense of where neutral interest rates are -- but i'm pretty sure where we are is zero nominal interest rates. seems tobig surprise be the life of any real inflation signs. is the phillips curve broken?
why are we not seeing wage inflation? to what do you explain this persistent lacked of inflation? not just in the u.s., but around the world. michael: just a year ago we were above 6% unemployment and no one would call that healthy. there are lags before these things taken. and typically growth has been really low. in the long run, productivity growth drives wage growth. without productivity growth, it will be hard to see wage growth. fixated why are we so on 2%? it's not just the fed. why is it so hard to revise to 1.5%? risk is i think one big one to start doing that, the fed credibilityill lose
they can get inflation to their target at all -- scarlet: arguably, they have lost credibility. michael: that is why they are staying on the role, to build a credibility. i think it is the same problem with reviving the inflation target higher. once you start changing it, people will think, well, what will they change it to next? isx: all right, michael staying with us. we are not letting you go any time soon. scarlet: when we come back, we're talking about job growth in the u.s. after that awful september jobs report. ♪
calling a family feud in the republican party. california congressman kevin mccarthy stunned his colleagues, saying he would not be a speaker ther next house. that announcement was moments before a nominating but was to take place. that vote was canceled. he told reporters, for us to need a freshbably face. john boehner says he will stay on as speaker until a successor is chosen. in a column for bloomberg news, hillary clinton says seven years after the financial crisis, there are still flaws in the system that could cause another crisis. mrs. clinton says too big to fail is still too big a problem and it is time for more accountability on lost -- on wall street. south carolina governor nikki haley is urging residents in south carolina's low-lying areas to evacuate. officials in the
state say damage to crops alone could be as high as $300 million. last weeks storm killed 19 people in south and north carolina. apologizingch is for suggesting that president obama is not a real black president. praise republican presidential candidate ben carson. he said "what about a real black president who can properly address the racial device?" this morning he tweeted an apology saying that he finds both men charming. is your first word news. back to you in the studio. thanks socarlet: much, mark crumpton. we are back with michael feroli, j.p. morgan.st at we had a disappointing jobs report, almost every measure and the court failed estimates. about theere talking
fed president earlier who does not really talk for the committee. he's on his own. but he said the slowdown we are seeing is a result of the fed starting to tighten in 2013 by talking down the taper. monetary policy, they say, works with long and variable ads. good this have been a result of the fed de facto tightening showing up now? that's a pretty weird theory. we have had two months of a little bit softer job growth, and trying to narrow it down with that precision -- i think it's really odd. something you have written about even before this last report quite a bit is that we could just shift down to a lower wicked just shift down to a lower pace of monthly job creation and it might be totally healthy. what are you explain that a little bit more, why that could be?
the working age population is a lot lower than it was, just to the -- just the force of demographics. that means that the consistent employment rate is around 75,000 people. that's probably the number of jobs we want to create on a monthly basis. if you go back to the late 1990's, that number was more like 200,000. it could be in the might of the market they are still thinking this is the old regime where 200,000 is what is acceptable or a good number, or an ok number, where is what we are doing in the last date of months is twice the rate of what is sustainable in a longer run. scarlet: i know you have said in relationshipe is a between structural and cyclical in the partition of ration rate -- and the participation rate. we figured out where that is? michael: it is still blurry.
we think it is shifting down. people over 65 generally are not going to participate in even a healthy labor market. we do know it is shifting shifting down. we do not know how much is cyclical versus structural. we think the vast majority we have seen is structural in nature. we think a lot of fed policy makers agree. but there is still that big gap and yellen mentioned in that big press conference they want to close a few tents. alix: if we have that 75,000 jobs, are the gdp forecast in the markets prepared for that kind of slowing job growth? michael: that's a good question. last friday's reaction would show you the markets are not quite ready for it --
are in astill think we phase where we think we have above trend growth. on average, we will get the trend growth. but in terms of trend growth, also, i think expectations are coming down, which is something we saw in the minutes today. the fed has been lowering their estimate of trend growth as well. joe: you mentioned last friday from report was more than we stable, itold growth looks like we are getting close to a tighter labor market. it seems like we must be getting closer to the fed's goal even with them. michael: yes, we saw an outright decline -- joe: attempt or 100th of a percent -- close.: so, very but you're right. over the last two months, even with that, it is less
sustainable. it is putting downward pressure on the slack. alix: and for the part-time workers who dropped out of nowhere, are they for good? themel: presumably some of went to full-time status. -- that is a good thing we're seeing declines in part-time employment. michael, i love the title of your latest report "shark sandwich." in the spirit of spinal tap, where are we, 11, 12? michael: i think we are at 11. maybe it could go to 12. scarlet: approaching 14? being verye fed is accommodative. they keep guiding is lower and lower. scarlet: what would be the
argument to turn that dial to 13 or 14 question mark what would be the transmission mechanism for that? michael: i think it is turbocharged for the normal transmission mechanism, which is lower rates for home purchases. i think you just want more of that to get the process moving even faster. again, turning out to 12, 13, 14. , chief economist at j.p. morgan chase. alix: up next, we will be interviewing know about laureate joseph stiglitz. ♪
wherei want to look at markets ended up today. kind of a crazy day. kevin mccarthy thing you was not going to become sigrid the house. the markets clawed back. you saw the big jump with stocks. joe: i want to look at my terminal. this is what we have been talking about a lot lately, the new trading range. earlier, we had the higher range -- here is the lower range. say, we are bouncing along the and today, perhaps we broke out of it. we don't know. maybe we will get slapped down again. but we have been watching the oscillation between the white line and the redline essentially since august and maybe we broke out of it. i am not the biggest believer in lines on charts and technical analysis. i think it's interesting we shot above it. equities.nd not just
oil prices, they did not stay there for long, but they got too wide ,$50.06? a lot of questions about whether this is fundamentally driven or a short squeeze because there is so much short positioning against oil. alix: taking a look at one of the currencies we follow and that is the brazilian riel having a massive rally today. looking at my terminal, you see where it has been. as the index goes lower, that means it is strengthening, and you can see what we have seen the last few days. a big rally here. that is possibly partly that dilma bnp.eff could we also see a comeback of these currencies that are totally battered, totally bruised. of the big stories, china, they finally reopened the market last night after
basically a week break. was up 3% in the end, i think. but the fundamental issue for china, there is still this big slowdown. i think we have -- alix: actually speaking of china, we will go to lima, peru. how about that? the financial ministers gathering for the annual meetings of the imf and world bank. francine lacqua is there an joins us with nobel laureate joseph stiglitz who has a new position as the advisor to u.k. leadereader -- labour jeremy corbyn. stiglitz, what an honor to see you in lima. .e talk about the slowdown is it possible we could be in a recession and just not know? joseph: -- aseph: we do not talk about
recession. we talk about a significant decrease. absolutely we are seeing a significant decrease. a couple of things are going on. slowdown is significant. consequences of the fed raising interest rates, even though everyone has known it is maybe going to be september -- did not happen -- maybe december. they have known about it, but it seems as though it is still news. and finally the eurozone has not gotten its act together. depression will continue -- maybe a little bit better now than 2018. all of this is not good news for the world. francine: i have questions. greece-- number one, -- that make payment. that would help? not unless they change
the macroeconomic target. the real problem is they aren't testing they have a 3.5 primary surplus by 2018. that is essentially a death sentence. a precursor -- they do need restructuring, a debt profile, whatever you call it, absolutely necessary, but they need to change the macroeconomic targets. francine: when you talk about the fed, you are right. it's like it is a surprise they are going to hike rates. thehis because we follow markets to much or the central bank follows the market to much? joseph: i think the central market is intimidated by the markets. i think it was in good -- it was good news that in september they said, although you have pushed your bet, we are going to do what is right for the economy.
that is the central obligation of the fed. the simple fact is america's economy -- recovery is anemic. if you go the yacht 35 percent whatever unemployment rate, the true unemployment rate, looking at people who are working part-time that cannot get a full-time job, it is well over 12%, 13%. it is reflected in the wage stagflation. i think they did the right thing not to raise interest rates. francine: do you think they will do this year? joseph: i hope not. francine: because of domestic concerns? joseph: domestic concerns and the international slowdown way on theirut minds. i think they should also do something to make sure that the supply of credit they are creating its to where it is needed. francine: why is inflation so
low around the world? and what point does it start creeping up? the reason inflation is so low is primarily access supply. the united states, europe, excess supply. is the 12% unemployment official number. the unofficial is even higher. supply of ao excess lot of commodities. manufactured and natural commodities are in excess supply. so, of horse this is happening. these are inflationary pressures. francine: this is the concern, that we are becoming like japan? joseph: we are going into a japanese kind of stagnation. francine: which is very difficult to get t of. joseph: difficult to get out of.
not an inevitable force of nature. block is aggregate demand. monetary policy cannot solve it. it can worsen it. wewe invest in our future, can have a better environment, better transport, better education. there is so much we could do right now. is mismatched. i can understand -- it is an accounting issue, isn't it? these investments take years. joseph: but we have such a backlog of things we know now need to be done that i think we could get fiscal policy to start working very quickly. on china, you said you expected a significant slowdown area are we looking at a hard
landing? there are two questions. what will happen to gdp? and what will happen to gdp and international markets? i am optimistic, but we are fairly clear that as part of the transformation of china that we all talked about as a good thing , it is going to be restructuring the economy in ways that will in sale less resources, to brutal less demand ore, the commodity growthat fueled global since the great recession, i think, is over. you have recently become the advisor to jeremy corbyn, the opposition leader in the u.k.
have you met him? do you know him? joseph: i am more engaged and probably trying to construct on both sides of the atlantic a agenda that addresses a drought of western -- francine: inequality? joseph: inequality. a lakh of shared prosperity and slower growth. all of the growth has gone to the top 10%. stagnating90%, income. an economy that does not deliver itsthe vast majority of citizens. both economies have to construct a new progressive agenda. francine: what are you recommending that the u.k. do?
this doesn't just talk about equality. it also goes by to the referendum and whether the u.k. stays in the eu. so, the broad agenda i have been focusing on is called rewriting the rules. it will have to be adapted for every country. we have a financial sector that takes care of itself rather than the rest of the economy. inevitable. it is the result of choices we have made. out a wholed to lay economic reforms and policies that will achieve, what
we think is faster economic growth. francine: thank you for your time today. that was a fascinating conversation. joseph stiglitz. of course we will be back with more interviews right here from the imf and world bank meeting in lima, peru. we spoke to the world bank president. the eurogroup president is also coming up, guys. alix: all right, thank you so much. --omberg's friends wayne francine lacqua. we will hear from her later in the show. scourge of as the tax havens and he is an assistant professor at the university of california-berkeley. s work --zucman' addresses tax havens offshore. he joins us now. thomas pickering, who wrote
the foreword to your book, has become a household name. ascribed the distinction between what you're looking at and what he is noted for? at the: we're looking same things. we are talking about the distribution of wealth in the united states and global economies. they have tax return data and it gives you information about the wealth andn of income, but they miss everything that is not reported. so, what i am trying to do in my have figurestually of what are we missing when we only use this data. capture all ofto the wealth. 8% ofly the conclusion is the wealth, a pretty big figure that makes a significant difference for the study of
inequality. study ofok, there is a inequality and is a pretty big buzzword. your research focuses specifically on wealth and inequality.ealth what is the distinction matter? inequalityalth determines the last fraction of income inequality. you have very rich people. most of their income actually derives from well. -- from wealth. soerest, capital gains, and on. if you want to understand the long-run trends, then you need wealth at well, and matters because it gives particular influence among these things, so that is part of the shift thewant to attention from income to wealth. those matter, of course, a great deal. gabriel, we have seen the
charts over recent years, the divergence between the 1% and three much everyone else. look at the policies that contributed to this gap, what do you see as the main drivers of inequality? gabriel gabriel: the main driver is tax policy and particularly trends and progressive taxation. when there is no progressive income tax or estate tax, income and wealth inequality rose very high. fromyou have a long time the 1970's. you have the top marginal rates that were very high. and there was time when income inequality was low and wealth inequality was low and all of this was reversed in the 1980's. the income tax rates went down. now the u.s. taxation rate
almost disappearing and we're witnessing this upsurge. , which isy tax policy essential, although other market policies of course, minimum wage, the power of unions and so on that very much affect the distribution. progressive taxation is key. alix: it's also interesting to look at global wealth inequality. wealth inequality seems to be decreasing. domestic wealth inequality seems to be increasing. what do you ascribed this divergence to? hard to quantify and make entirely clear. if global wealth is decreasing it is mostly due to the growth of china and developing countries. there is growth, ok. know, it is mostly a catch up phenomenon.
some point they need to converge between china and rich countries. at the same time you have growing inequality in anglo-saxon colonies, the u.s.. you have a difference with anglo -- anglo-saxon economies in europe. it has occurred much more than in continental europe. is due to policy developed in the u.s. since the 1980 is basically. alix: coming up we will talk -- scarlet: coming up, we will talk about taxation specifically, and which countries hold the most assets offshore. ♪
scarlet: in scarlet fu. 'mhat'd you miss?" -- i; scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" is suing bill gross his former employer. he says that pimco wrongfully fired him. he is promising to donate any money recovers in the lawsuit to charity. earnings,a reporting missing estimates pointing to a global aluminum glut. it fell to two cents a share from $.12. at earnings coming in share, fallinga short of the $.13 compiled by bloomberg. scarlet: it may be a less than jolly holiday season for retailers. the economy is expected to grow thanslightly slower pace
2014. it is expected to be just over $36 billion. that is lower than last year's increase, but much higher than the 10-year average. it would mark the first slowdown sense retailers were hurt -- retailers were hurt by superstorm sandy. that is your bloomberg business flash. anare joined by gabriel, assistant professor at the university of california-berkeley. before had a chart up the break and it showed the increase of labor supply. an economist at morgan stanley recently came out with a note rebuking some of the income inequality argument saying much of what we are eating is the result of this labor explosion around the world. thisdo you make of
argument. do you see this as a contributor? gabriel: if that was what was driving inequality, we should see any quality rising, not only in the u.s., but in germany, france, the u.s., and no one. that is not the case. inequality is rising much more. so, it has to be something else. it has to be largely due to domestic policies. you know, i wanted to ask you because it's not necessarily just officials in china or corrupt russian oligarchs or african kings -- neutral funds are in -- held in that is well.
as their way to tabulate what that means in missed tax revenue? gabriel: yes. that is the evaded taxes and interest income, given the capital gains through hidden offshore accounts. that is a fraction of the $7.6 wealth. of this is significant for government. they have to be compensated by higher taxes for the middle class in the u.s. and in developing countries. offshore taxat evasion is cutting into revenues, with why do -- why do the government's not fight that? why do they let this go on
unabated? gabriel: as pessimistic as you are, i think there is a lot of progress that has been done or should be done, in particular in the united states. there is the automatic exchange of banking information between financial institutions and the rs, so we see real progress happening and we see this from international corporations that can materialize over a short time. that is a first step. no, we do not have data yet. but it shows a lot can be done if we understand the problem and have the political will to address tax evasion. alix: you say that often they do not cooperate with releasing
information and they should be terrace question on what is the reality of these going into place? the ascension's all beingial information's -- sent to the irs, 30% withholding . this is doable. the notion of sanctions on the cayman islands. small states. it's very complicated and that has been done. at four corporations, it is different, right? that wealth is being hidden by companies, right? alix: right, so -- gabriel: they are on a very large scale. get real, thank you for joining us. we really appreciate it. coming up, we will head back to peru where our colleague will
i'm alix steel. "what'd you miss?" we want to go back to lima, peru. friends winlock what joins us with finance minister jeroen dijsselbloem. francine? francine: thank you so much, alix. thank you for joining us. we talk about the slowdown in global trends, and actually the eurozone is not doing that bad. jeroen: growth is picking up, 18 out of 19 countries are growing
again. 3%, 4%. quite strong, stronger than we thought a year ago. of course, greece has given us grief in the last half-year. that is stable now, politically stable. the program a contract track. for europe, i am optimistic. francine: do you think the imf is on board for greece? jeroen: they have made clear they need additional measures and reassurance before they are on board. they want reforms and physical reassurance -- fiscal reassurances and of course, debt. we will come to that in november. the approach is becoming more and more clear. we will look at how greece can manage its debts on an annual basis, debt service. we have done a lot to bring back the -- bring down the interest rate greece has to pay. their debt management should be ok. but let's talk about that with the imf. i'm sure we will find an agreement. toncine: let's leave greece
the side. what worries you the most? if you look at china, if you look at a fed interest rate hike , what could lead global growth over the edge? worries me the most is whether we manage the adjustments that are needed. the main changes that the chinese government has made in terms of structural reforms to -- structural reforms, are they being right choices? there will be hiccups. the question is, will they be managed right. the same thing goes for normalization on the monetary side in the u.s. there will be normalization of and thetary policy, question is will it be managed or communicated in the right way? that's the only -- it's not a major concern, but those are my concerns. francine: the fed it rate hike, normalization come a has been communicated, and the markets do not get it.
what is going on? the question is whether postponing is helping. i do not want to comment on the u.s. monetary ellis e, so if everyone is expecting -- monetary policy, so if everyone is expecting a step, putting it off does not always help. much in favor, as soon as it is possible, as soon as the economy allows the, to normalize what we do in monetary policy. the same would go for europe. we are in a different phase. francine: very different. joseph: absolutely -- jeroen: absolutely. the u.s. is ahead of us. but the small step at the right time. is that the impact of emerging markets or the scandal -- how much do you think that will impact to the real economy? the german markets of a
very high quality image. the reliability of the products. it is a key issue. it is about values and trustworthiness and i think it will be sorted out very, very quickly. but in the end, german industry is still very strong. asia gorowth levels in to a more normal level, that will affect germany, but i am sure that will last. every day we see things postponed, m&a having to be first back. [indiscernible] jeroen: we have always set three standards. one, the company has to be ready. in terms of restructuring, strengthening the balance sheet, etc. i think the financial sector in
europe is, of course, in a much better state now than it was two or three years ago. the markets have to be ready. .here has to be appetite i have always said we will look very closely at these three elements when we give the final go. all i can say now is we're doing all of the preparations that are needed. we have always said we will prepare to do it in the final quarter of 2015, and the exact timing, we will decide later. we will keep a close watch on the markets. francine: all right, i'm going to send it back to you. for now that's it from me. alix: thank you, bloomberg's lacqua wayne -- francine live from peru. we will be right back. ♪
. evans at 9:30 p.m. alix: that wraps it up for "what'd you miss?" scarlet: ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store.
mark: "with all due respect" to john boehner, you ain't going anywhere anytime soon. ♪ show. big newsday on the red-hot focus groups, but first red-hot house republicans. kevin mccarthy is donezo, he won't be majority speaker. here's what happened this afternoon. >> if we are going to unite and be strong, we need a new face to help you