anna: asian stocks through the global rally forward. after speculation the fed will not rush to raise rates. the imf reiterates their vote for the u.s. central bank to leave the interest rate near zero. >> inflation numbers have to be solid. for the moment, there is not much on the horizon. neither on inflation nor on wages. anna: more from bloomberg's conversation with christine lagarde, and more interviews -- including the world bank president and the chairman. races for $12.4
billion in valuation for the ipo according to sources. they could come as early as friday, as they look for luxury status. welcome to countdown. i am anna edwards, live from london. it is friday morning. let us start with the reaction with what the fed had to say in their minutes. we knew what the decision was for weeks. these are the minutes. these are the impacts on the world index, of global equities over three days. it shows we saw a rally and global stocks, $2.46 trillion added to the first four days. friday is adding into that, the momentum being picked up in asia. a seems patients is having positive impact. look of the oil price, we are actually back still above $50. we popped above that with the
first time since july. in yesterday's trading session, and back above now. we have seen the opec secretary general making comments about the oil market. suggesting that demand will expand. that is the secretary-general talking about the demand picture. that takes us to our question of the day. is the collapse in energy and metal prices behind us? sources suggest we may have seen the worst in the mental space. you can find me on twitter if you want to get in touch. we are going to bring you plenty more great sound coming from lima. we have the imf meeting in peru. these are the voices we will hear from in the program, we will bring you more of that conversation between christine lagarde and others at the top of the show. carney, allmark
voices we will hear from. with that in mind, let's check in on the asian markets specifically. let's get to sherry and. shery ahn. taiwan close to leading. but all the markets here in asia now gaining, asian stocks are proposed for the best weekly gain in four years. they are gaining from more risk appetite, also following wall street higher, as the federal reserve minutes show they are not in a hurry to raise rates. we have the shanghai composite rising 8/10 of a percent. the best weekly gain in six months, the hang seng index trading 1.6% higher. trading volume is more than 40% higher, on the 30 day average of the bond. even when the heaviest way to stop retailing is taking a dive after the announced earnings and
forecast. also gaining 1.2%, led by the energy stocks as oil expand. let us take you to the chinese movers. i want you to take a look at icbc, the lender here is surging. we are hearing more cuts in the fourth quarter. gaining more than 5%, along with the oil, china life is gaining more than 2%. we are hearing that china is going to increase the measures to import corporate bonds sold by major construction firms. two currencies i want to take you to in asia, the indonesian and the malaysian ringgit. they are getting the most. the most in more than a decade, we see it gaining 3.5%. today, the best weekly gain since 2001. the malaysian ringgit also seeing the best gain since 1998,
advancing more than 3%. back to you. anna: thank you very much. joining us from hong kong. we have breaking news in europe. this is caroline with the details. caroline: good morning. this seems to be good for friday morning, it is basically trying to increase global expansion. dro signed ad hy 40% stake to take from a resilient minor -- a brazilian miner. this will increase overall tomburere aluminum. buying up 40% stake that they currently hold, it would take norsky hydro to 45%. they already own 5% and that coming. anna: thank you.
let us talk about what happened in the u.s. overnight. we saw movement that the eu missed, including the reaction today in the minutes. let's get to julie hyman, she has this report from new york. julie: u.s. stocks rose after the federal reserve released its minutes from the last meeting. economists read that it was dovish, the markets view that mays are going to run low be confirmed or emphasized by the minutes. that thehe fact members say they do still expect some likelihood of rates going up by the end of the year. so a little bit of confusion remaining here. that confusion also emphasized by the fact that stocks went higher, but rates did, too. in other words, the 10-year note we saw yields going lower. but then they bounced right back up again. again, a bit of confusion in the market here. in terms of what was moving in the stock market, it was actually commodity related
shares that actually gain the and materials. even health care and biotech, a group that has been lagging recently, even gained by the end of the day. some of the traditional supporting, chevron and general electric some of the best individual in the index. the movement of one stock, netflix is also worth mentioning. the stock coming higher after it announced it was going to raise prices for its most commonly used land. the streaming plan in its system. something else worth mentioning, oil prices touching $50 a barrel when it comes to west texas intermediate trading here in new york city. the main back down by the close of the session, but still the highest since july for oil. since julie filed that report, some confusion in the market following the release of the minutes.
and they were talking points at the imf and world bank annual meeting in peru. with was little consensus, financial leaders expressing mixed views on when the fed should press go. >> when an authority says we will be data-dependent, and our two drivers will be unemployment and inflation, what we are saying is inflation numbers have to be solid. we have to see them. and for the moment, there is not much on the horizon. neither on inflation nor on wages. >> i am very much in favor him as soon as it is possible, as soon as the economy allows it, to normalize what we do in monetary policy. the same would go for europe, we are in a different state than the u.s.. >> very different. >> absolutely, the u.s. is ahead of us and economic recovery. it is the right time. >> the fact is that america's
recovery is anemic. if you look beyond the percentage points on unwanted, the true unemployment rates, people working part-time, it is well over 12%. >> our expectation has been pretty good, whether the majority of the committee said they will continue to go at some point this year. i guess it is more december. the markets don't see it. i am not in the business of guessing the movement. what is much more important is the medium to long-term involvement. anna: let us get some more on the fed them, we're joined by jamie murray. good to see you so bright and early this morning. what do the minutes tell us about the chances for a rate hike in december? jaime: the market reaction suggests, the kind of important thing to take from it is the
central outlet -- what they expect to happen has not changed at all really. but the risks around it have changed. the chances of the economy being blown off course have gone up. when you are less certain about something, your less liquid act. that is what is right in the market. anna: other reports suggest hawkish light. they suggest you can have really hawkish, which suggests the finger is on the button. we'rere is hawkish light, in absolutely no hurry to move. jaime: i'm not sure about that innovation. us inwhere does it leave the conversation for december? the market implies the probability is 40%. maybe even lower. important thing is support. if you want to know what happens to rates when you need to know the labor market. anna: what we hear about the ecb
and the bank of england in the last 24 hours? jaime: it was fresh and unique, a comment on the data. they did not take it timely. it is really balanced minutes, not a lot to take from it. again, they sort of revised the inflation outlook, worrying about the china story affect. and on the ecb side, everyone was looking for some hit that stimulus and there really wasn't any hint of how it would play out. anna: are we still looking for the bank of england, this mark carney making comments. year on to focus on the year oil affects dropping out, suggesting that thoughts would turn to rate rise. but the longer the fed rates, thouge longer the bank of england waits. jaime: inflation will start rising, and it is easier to
convince the public of a rate rise. and our guess is it will be close to 1% by january. anna: is that because the nature of the year on year comparison? jamie: it almost all is. anna: jamie murray joining us on the central banks around the world. 12 minutes past 6:00. a year after bill gross was ousted, he is looking for vindication. departureg over his from the bondage giant last year. caroline hyde has been pouring over the details. she joins us with the latest come as it develops. what is the response from pimco? caroline: the fact they are suing, he said it is wrongful termination -- a breach in contract. in a breach of good faith. he wants at least 2 million $200 million, adding up to the bonus he was on track for
$200 million. this is a guy worth $2 billion. he says it is not about the money. is going to charity. but some of the exclusive language that is being used, exactly one year really, after we first saw the fact that he left back in september of 2014. and we can bring up some of the things he has claimed in this court case. overall, he is being driven by a lust of power, greed, and a desire to improve their position. he names names. executives who conspired, calling it a cabal to work together, that he would be moved on from pimco. really explosive stuff, accusing them to get their hands on it. this is all about a man who claims he likes burgers and bonds. wanted tocolleague get into more risky assets, it would seem. many did not agree with the fact
that he wanted to stay more vanilla. overall, we can see the reaction thus far has been to respond and say there was no malice. at our legal team will be responding in court in due course. it is a sad tale. and we have been speaking throughout the programming to his lawyer, those that work with him. and we actually spoke to an individual, he is from armored wolf, and he is saying it is a coalition he can no longer manage bill gross at pimco. >> i did not like how i left, so to speak. care ford i did not the dispersions that someone might suggest i lost my touch. i don't think i lost my touch. i am in your seven days a week, 18 hours a day leave it or not.
and that speaks to the interest and hopefully the performance numbers speak to the confidence. >> obviously, there was tension at pimco. i have full confidence that all of the managers at pimco wanted to do what was best for the clients. bill. and there was a difference of opinion, and simply stated, bill was not able to maintain the coalition necessary to lead a firm like that. and not surprisingly, he was asked to step aside or forced out. he chose the latter. individualwas an that worked with him form a years at pimco. we actually heard from the man himself, speaking in april of this year outlining the fact that he had been ousted. and the fact that he did not like the way he had to leave. i think this story will be running and running, many discussing it over the water cooler today.
anna: welcome back. 90 minutes past 7:00 you're watching in frankfurt. here of the stories you need to know. the september meeting shows an upbeat feeling about the u.s. economy but it was darkened by threats from abroad. the threats to emerging markets raised risks the dollar might strengthen. that made exports more expensive and could create an additional drag on the economy. speculation that the fed will not raise interest rates and boosted stocks in asia, on top of the $2.5 trillion added to the global stocks this week. at the same time, the malaysian
ringgit is headed for its best week since 1998. as investors look back. pimcoll gross is suing for his departure from the bondage giant last year. he accuses executives of the company he cofounded a pushing them out in order to get their hands on his bonus. he wants to expose and proper, dishonest, and unethical paper. that is how much ferrari could be valued at when it's ipo, according to people familiar with the asset. the official price range be published as early as today. although the evaluation may change due to volatility called by volkswagen. we spoke to someone who owns a majority stake, along with his daughter and sister, about the ferrari brand. >> ferrari is a legend. it is a legend of its time. it is a legend because it is
capable. it has been capable of protecting the brand, to protect the numbers and not give more than what was needed. it has had great people in it. and i would say there is a lot of great men and women in the company. and that company is a source of inspiration for me. i do believe also for many italians and many people around the world. you do not sell a car, you silly dream. anna: nice glasses. ceo,ng with the volkswagen he said it was something that individuals did. michael moore told lawmakers at the white house yesterday. hans nichols has more in berlin. what else did he have to say on capitol hill? hans: he was not at the white house, unless there was a big change.
anna.d sorry, he said sorry a lot. he seemed just as angry at his own company as some as the lawmakers that were grilling them. and what we have here, we have a company that says he will not be a book to have an easy solution, an easy fix. it will have to actually do some sort of technical hardware, some new engineering. here is how he told it to the lawmakers. michael: around 430,000 cars are the generation one. with the very which was a very early vehicles, and we believe the software only solution will not be possible. logic, to be frank with we would've done it in the first place. hans: i know better than to question your technical knowledge, your expertise of diesel engines. here is a shorthand i use,
though. the bigger engines, the two leaders, maybe it was a have a software fix. for the smaller engines, you're going to have to totally rebuild or actually add something to catch the noxious gases. they still not have that mapped out, whether that is in germany or the u.s. a couple of other developers yesterday, we did have offices as well as homes of executives in raieded. that is the state prosecutor in saxony doing that. he said he wanted to see a quick resolution. anna: hans, thank you. he was making the point that the fix is would be difficult. otherwise, they would have been done in the first place. hans nichols joining us in berlin. investors have been fixated on central-bank policy as of late. with the early season gaining steam, can they still back the spotlight?
our next guest says it will be a pivotal order for american companies. during this now is oliver harrington from atlantic equities. a lot of effect on what they're doing, and we now face a discerning season. are we going to be back to talking about which companies did well or badly? or are we being driven by the overall level of support by the central bank? i think it will be a pivotal quarter for u.s. companies in particular, a lot of uncertainty out there. as it relates to global macro, people will be looking at some companies -- the s&p 500 outlook in terms of whether the market will improve your. or whether it really is as bad as people are forecasting. obviously, we had out cola kick things off. a pretty mixed bag, that is the market saying they did not like what they heard. i think the key point within that for me was that comment on china. it had taken down the output
expectations for auto there from 5% to 8% to 1% to 2%. that is a big cut, a sector under big cuts. anna: looking at international businesses, their commentary on the global economy, in particular he their comments on the slowdown in china, are we going to see these international businesses really hurt but the strength of the u.s. dollar? oliver: absolutely. that is key. the dollar, and on the flipside of international currencies, look at the company in the industrial gas face. it has been really taken apart by currency. it has exposure to the mexican peso and these are really hurting what is a very strong business. industrials are another space. we are concerned about downside risk. things like caterpillar have already pre-announced and said
things are very exposed. china and the mining piece, i think the dollar around the globe -- anna: what is going to be the focus there? very difficult conditions for the market in september? , again, we are looking at a downside to expectations across the banking sector. obviously, it has been a key space in the first half -- on the expectation of a rate rise. and looks as the data we are seeing, that is being pushed out really until next year. obviously, the fed was speaking last night. this was the deal that we may see something the back part of this year. i think the data shows a 16 event. and that will be unhelpful for the bank. anna: great to see you. oliver harrington joining us from atlantic equities. coming up, the global head of fx research joins us. he will give us his take on
the health of the u.s. economy is important to brazil, the united kingdom, china -- important everyone in the room. it is relevant. the exact timing the fed it moves is not determined by the bank of england. we will take our responsibility. forill determine the timing the start of the process of monetary policy normalization, consistent with the u.k. anna: mark carney of course. he was at the imf world bank annual meeting in peru. telling the panel that a fed move isn't all the things about. it is 6:30 in london. welcome back. here are the stories you need to
know this morning. minutes from the september meeting of the fomc show an upbeat feeling about the u.s. economy was darkened by threats from abroad. policymakers felt china's slowing growth in the threats to emerging markets raised risks the dollar might jump further. for gross is suing pimco $200 million over his departure from the bond giant last year. he accuses executives of the company he cofounded of pushing them out, in order to get their hands on his bonus. he was to expose unethical behavior. s. chief saidu. finding all the vehicles may take years. michael born said they did not make a decision to cheap system. but it was down to a few engineers and germany. michael: on behalf of my company andcolleagues in germany, we personally, i would to offer
a sincere apology -- a sincere apology for volkswagen's use of a program that she did the regime. anna: oil headed for the biggest gain since august. york and up% in new 9.4% this week overall. n.t us speak to bee good to see you. what is behind the rally in prices? we heard interesting comments on demand, not supply, coming from opec. ben: that is right. all of my money has been caught up in the rally, the whole equity rally that is dragging all commodities with it. when you talk about the noise there, there seems to be optimism growing and increasingly to the market about demand. we haven't really seen for a long time. and as you mentioned, opec importantly, they see global
demand increasing more than forecast this year. when you add that together with china, where at the moment there, the story there is that it will face a collapse, there are a few factors creeping into the market. there's going to support oil and push the prices higher. anna: you expect this rally to continue, then? 50 andwti pop above again this morning and the session. just in the last 24 hours, pimco said they think we have seen the worst in the commodities rou t. is apimco is saying it commodity that will gain over the next 12 months. when we talk about 50, we are seeing a key resistance level. and should we sustain gains and hold them above $50, that it looks like there could be some more games to come. around $56 seems to be the next
point of resistance. rally,n we look at this you must have some caution. it is easy to forget that the supply that drove prices to a six-year lows to remain. opec this week said that supply overhang is at about 200 million barrels. that is quite a lot. so it will be interesting to see if the process can sustain that rally with that supply glut still in mind. anna: thank you very much for joining us. ben joining us from melbourne. let's get back to the federal reserve minutes. michael mckee sent us this report from new york. michael: in isolation, they would put tightening on the table. most participants say they would continue to anticipate that the conditions haven't met, or would likely be met, by the end of the year. policymakers agreed that the
developers over the intervening periods had not altered the committee's outlook. that was before the disappointing december outlook. that seems to ratify the concern about china and the stronger dollar that led said officials in december, it was prudent to wait for additional information. jobless claims fell sharply again thursday. as in the dollar. commodity prices in general rose, and west texas oil -- the u.s. benchmark -- crossed $50 for the first time since july. for the market and the fed, no real clarity. michael mckee, bloomberg new york. anna: let's get more from david bloom, the global head of fx strategy. good morning to you, bright and early. we start by apologizing profusely. i said that you think there is excessive pessimism. and the complete reverse is
true. complete optimism. i apologize. explain to me your contrarian, or your anti-consensus view. people saying the the dollar is going to go up, the fed will raise rates. really? we have been talking about that for two years. that is why the euro and the dollar went up. it has happened, it is done. the rate rise is in there. and now we are waiting for the manana rate rise. plus, what we have seen historically is that central banks have raised rates. but like a year later, they're cutting them. into the rate rise, you get these massive rallies -- qe is a good example. they were the rockstar of growth. as soon as the market started
processing the return, boom, the currency went down. wherek we're in a phase once the fed stops raising rates, once we have seen it be great, the dollar will go down. so risk reward is out of the way. anna: you call it a truncated cycle. they're very short these days. as soon as it looks like it has turned, everybody picks the end. david: you get these massive currency moves, two rate rises and the market goes -- they will cut. once they start seeing the levels peak into it, the fed will raise rates. what are we going to be thinking in six months time? wo'll be thinking one or to rate rises, but maybe they will be easing. once you start thinking that, the whole psyche of the market changes. anna: very sensible. said that a rate
hike is never coming. david: i have been talking about rate rights for two years. specially, they have a word. and we are not getting a rate rise. we may get one in december. but even then, that is close the. anna: you still think december? david: that is the view, we had that for a long time. but the fed's creed a new dynamic today. and the new dynamic is that as oil price goes up, and the dollars cars running, they might raise rates. let's imagine the oil price goes up. the dollar goes down. they're going to raise rates. the dollar goes back up. oil goes back up. they brought a new dynamic into the market, that if they are not going to raise rates, the
variables they are looking at can go their way. but as soon as they go their way, they will raise rates. in the variables will turn down. anna: so then we are stuck. david: i think the fed has changed the dynamic. anna: interesting. i was struck by one of the lines in a minute. compared to previous forecast, more now, we're seeing that inflation is tilted to the downside. it seems amazing in the complex of rate rising. 2018, they are saying they may see 2% inflation. we have argued that the feds wanted the cycle truncated. if the world is falling apart, and growth is absolutely collapsing and the financial problems -- the dollar have a safe savhaven. but the fed is not raising rates because of deflation and the perils running along, that is
good for emerging markets. i think this is kind of stagnant. it could boost them, and we're seeing the dollar ran. things have collapsed since the payroll numbers. so there is a new dynamic entering into the market. it is a cycle. and the fed have graded this, as well. things are getting better, oil prices get better, dollar goes down. the fed is going to raise rates. the dollar goes back up. the fed does not raise rates. k like we have graded a new cycle of fed will, fed will not. david bloom stays with us from hsbc. global head of fx strategy. the iranian diaspora is large. now, with sanctions it to be lifted, some smell opportunity in coming home. bloomberg has been finding out more.
>> if you are an iranian, you speak the language and understand the culture, iran will be looked at as the biggest front your market opening up. we do see a significant amount of interest. >> these are asked bankers who gave up their jobs in london and dubai to set up a capital firm in iran. >> we are a small group of 13-14 employees. what you see here is the market research and private equity team. post-sanctione opportunity was too good to resist. iran,ou are> compared to some of the other countries in gion, it is more developed. but this developed happen between 2007 and now. which we are somewhat nearing the. when the country was relatively isolated and not a lot of foreign investments command. >> they want to raise money for one of iran's private equity
fund. focused on foreign investment. many gradients whoever cut their teeth in the financial service industry now hope to apply their spirits back home. in what they believe will be the world's next frontier market. what made you want to come to iran? >> i have been to iran before. on business. but ever since the nuclear agreement, new opportunities are arising. work withn mps to other companies. i think it was accommodation of my own heritage and business prospects, as well. >> and you are not concerned about any political backlash you may face? >> it is something that is always possible. but i think the conditions are quite stable now. peoplere not necessarily
who shy away from anxiety. that is what we live for, i guess. >> in investment banking, that is part of your dna. >> the asset test for this firm is similar to others. see will have to wait and if iran becomes the front your market they're hoping for. that report from iran. who would take a short break. angela merkel is the favorite to win this year's nobel peace prize over the refugee crisis. we will look at the top contenders, and had of the enough it. plus, should they prepare for a ceo? details as we go through today's topics. ♪
here aree in paris, the stories you to know. minutes of the september meeting show an upbeat feeling of the u.s. economy was darkened by track from abroad. the slowing growth and the threat to emerging markets raise ricks that the dollar might strengthen further. speculation that the fed will not raise interest rates until risks from outside the u.s. subside, it boosted stocks in asia. that is on top of the $2.5 trillion added to the values of global stocks in the first four days of this week. at the same time, the malaysian ringgit is headed for its best weeks effective 98, as investments move back. prices have jumped after glencore announced plans to cut conduction. has artied mining curbed copper and coal out lots. some $6k, briefly, billion.
in a few hours, we will hear who has won this year's nobel peace prize. of course, we do not even know who has been nominated. exactly. but german chancellor angela merkel has emerged as a favorite. woman.t a betting but i know a man who is. hans nichols is joining us in berlin. do you have money on this one? hans: no, of course not. which is speculate about something we actually know about -- like the fed minutes. not that we know anything they will do. but all the german papers, not all the most, are doing what we call a classic hedge. they are putting merkel on the cover. and the chance that she make it, it is being announced at 11:00 local. then she is off to checkers in your neck of the woods. in the world respected
periodical, i'm not sure how i translte freedom angel. here's what we know from the betting houses, merkel is 2-1. we should mention some of the other candidates, who of course have pope francis. congolese is a doctor. he is a favorite at 5-1. others, there eritrean priest using the coordinates of people heading north to help prevent from drowning. if you think this will come down to refugees, maybe you can make a case that angela merkel will get it. member, they can vote up to the very last minute. it is a five-member committee appointed by the norwegian parliament. nobel peace prize, the only prize you get in oslo. knock stockholm. if you ever get an award, i will
know you have finally arrived. one note on this, angela merkel's popularity at home is declining. back in april, she was at 75%. let's get back to speculating about the fed ministry we have no insights about what will happen in oslo later today. geography important i will be sure to get the right city. for the one policy that could deliver her the prize, she could've the same time -- acting as the detriment of her political rare. which you suggest is not a policy wholeheartedly welcome in germany. hans: there is a great deal of tension internally even within her coalition. there will be a big meeting in bavaria this weekend where her sister party, which kinds of run bavaria, they will talk about how they can fortify the border. the refugee crisis is far out front of the public grid using the public shift a bit.
the latest numbers are that 1.5 million africans will be arriving here in germany. not all will get refugee status. but in some way, merkel has different opinions. viewed so much differently. if we had this conversation three months ago, it would be merkel who is destroying greece. not exact the popular. if we know that members of the nobel peace prize committee took vacations in greece over the summer and read some of the papers, angela merkel will not get this waward. anna: you should put some money on this. let's take a look at some of the top stories on bloomberg.com. tim joyce is from the business i. also with us still in the studio, david bloom. david, i will talk to 10 about beer. a subject you will not want to contribute. david: i only know one thing.
i like it. anna: massively insightful. we will quote you all morning. david: you can have a demonstration of such a thing. anna: we can sell tickets. tim, thank you for coming in. we're talking about the implications of employees, you have a great story. it is interesting story about a really potential clash of corporate altar. mayfair,rs have tony they have stipends for lunch, they stay in the four seasons. and not quite so much. anna: give us an indication of the extent of the pennypinching that they pride themselves on. of course, it is incredibly strategic austerity. craft,ter they bought
election to be free. anna: i read one of the details, after buying heinz, they would disconnect manmini fridgeds. tim: and the free beer is also gone. anna: that is particularly cruel for a beer company. david was joking, but the out skirts of the deal, this move your world. david: the interesting factor for example is that the story has not effected the dollar. they're not having the impact on for exchange they used to. we used to sit there and some kind of equilibrium and see a big flow. in the market would move in that direction. but that is not really what we do. i cap number last time someone said, what is the application? so in and day has come off the
radar. anna: is that is because the central banks are all invasive? david: everything we do. when you get the bank of japan uying, it doesn't look so big. latest is that it has been rejected, the latest offer. tim: it is anybody's guess. not an easy deal. to get through when you look at it from regulatory perspective, we will create something that is by far the world's largest beer company -- something like 30% or a third of the global market. we call it the opec a beer. anna: amazing how to ends of the spectrum, we spend so much of our time talking about enormous companies. and these are enormous. and then we spent time talking
about the other end, the craft and. where the other news flow is. it seems like it is a really polarized industry. tim: we had a story about that the other day. this merger will not solve the biggest problem, the craft beer industry. it is growing. that is were the growth is. iller, evidencem -- anna: tim, thank you much. david, we will pick up with you on some things we heard from the bank of england. it is things like these megadeals not moving the pound around. is more to do with the expectation of where rate policy goes. david: basically saying we do not follow the fed. that is not always follow. follow, it will go up like a rocket.
time, and about june of last year, the market had an idea that the bank would raise, it was $170. they don't get a small moving currency. up, will get sterling going like i said, this exploding upwards. says,k no matter what he i just wait for the fed. anna: david bloom stays with us. as we head to the break, here is a picture of the global markets as they continue their rally. we have seen a lot of momentum. coming up next on countdown. >> what we have is a slowdown, very clearly. i do not see a recession. in the sense of negative growth. i do not see it is in the cards. secretary was the general in lima, peru. we will have more from our interviews at the imf world bank summit when we return.
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carryasian stocks the global rally forward. that scopeterates for the u.s. central bank will leave its benchmark interest rate near zero. >> inflation numbers have to be solid. we have to see them, and for the moment, there is not much on that horizon, neither on inflation nor on wages. anna: more from our conversation with christine lagarde, plus other interviews at lima, including jim yong kim. plus, from other races to $12.4 billion valuations in ipo.
the price range could come as early as friday as the supercar maker looks for luxury fit. welcome back. i am live from london. let's talk about global markets. since we have the federal reserve minutes for the meeting in september. this is a picture of the futures, if we can zoom in -- our expectation of where those markets will open up our above 1% at the start of the european equity trade day is the expectation right now. really reflecting the fact that the fed seems to be a little bit more patient than some had expected, and that has been pushing stocks in the u.s. and asia. --'s talk about oil the,
talk about oil. opec is suggesting that we may see an increase in demand. that was only briefly but we have been up above 50 now for a while and we continue to watch what is happening with the oil price. that takes us nicely onto our question of the day, surrounding the commodities complex. is the collapse and energies and metals behind this? you can get in touch with me on twitter if you would like to. we have some great sound from the imf event down in peru. from christine lagarde and francine lacqua has been talking to many of these people and we have many interviews. plenty more sound coming through
from lima. let's check in on the equity session in asia. .t has some decent momentum shery ahn is standing by. shery: you said it -- a federal reserve minute is helping markets across asia now that there is more speculation that the central bank is not ready to increase rates. we are seeing this momentum across asian stocks, headed for their best weekly day in four years. the nikkei is finishing 1.6% higher, even when it's heaviest todayed stocks plunged
+++ estimates. oil is continuing its gains and the shanghai composite is currently rising more than 1% -- it has seen one of its best weekly gains in six months and the shanghai composite has one more hour to go, the hang seng index also gaining 1%, a solid above 40% and the 30 day average -- some shares are the worst performers among global indices and they are making a comeback, searching about 16% since the energyer low -- oil and players are leading the game, not to mention automakers after china just cut attacks on car purchases -- it's taken through some movers in japan. upgraded by awas company -- toshiba also gained more than 5.6%. in the report is saying that a chinese computer maker could be
interested in toshiba's memory after the nikkei newspaper reported that they will pay $83 million. back to you. anna: thank you very much. some confusion and markets following the release of september's fomc minutes, and they were a talking point at the imf and world bank annual meeting in peru. there with little consensus and on when the fed should press go. >> when an authority says we will be data dependent, the two drivers will be unemployment and inflation. inflation numbers have to be solid. we have to see them, and for the moment there is not much on that horizon. either on inflation, nor on wages.
>> i am very much in favor, as soon as the economy allows it, to normalize monetary policy will stop the same will go from europe. us ins. is ahead of economic recovery. if it is postpone it the right time. >> the fact is that america's recovery is anemic. if you look beyond the five point whatever percent unemployment rate, the true unemployment rate, people working part-time, it is well over 11%. >> our expectation is that they are pretty good that the majority of the committee, that they will continue to go at some point this year. i am not in the business of guessing when the next fed move is. what is much more important is the medium to long-term. anna: let's get more on the fed
with our chief european economist, and hsbc's david bloom. us what we learned about the chances of a rate hike in december. jamie: i think the market reaction says it all. it has interpreted it -- the reason is it is not changing and central view of what is happening to the economy. but the risks around it have changed. if you are less confident of that coming to their. but it will change every month and if you want to raise rates, you have to raise rates. getslike the man who never married because they are waiting for the perfect person, it doesn't happen. i hope your family is at
watching. [laughter] david: don't worry about that. anna: david and i were having a conversation where he referred to the fed as the mañana rate rise. jamie doesn't think it is coming anytime soon. how many times have we seen people revising their expectation of when the fed hikes, later and later and later? jamie: there has been a series of lengthy shocks, one after the other. they are not all related but that is what has happened. david: that is the world we live in. this is snowplowing in my profession. you take a forecast, you get in the snow plow, and you push. you don't change the thinking, you never think you are wrong, you just push it along. that is what everyone does every single month. jamie: we are in a
dis-inflationary world now, but oil prices were up -- anna: yeah. jamie: the point is, it's not falling anymore, right? it's not halving. the disinflation will drop out. inflation will pick up at the beginning of next year, especially in the u.k. it will change. it will keep going. david: how many years have we said that? inflation will pick up, we will normalize. this doesn't happen. jamie: i don't know if you are married or not -- [laughter] anna: what have we learned about the ecb in the last 48 hours, then, jamie? unicredit expecting the ecb to announce qe two, or an extension of the existing qe program. is that likely? do think there is
anything in the minute that tells you about what they will do. it will take a long time to soak up, and we need more qe. david: it's not that they can do more qe, it is what more qe can they do. that is the key. in that, they are constrained. they have made themselves as usual, and they have bunds falling below 20 basis points and they can't buy anything. how is that going to work? that they can extend qe, they may increase monthly purchases. they are not going to be able to keep it. we have euro-dollar going back up next year. and obviously the dollar bull hawkish, theed was
ecb was ultra dovish. the ecb is still dovish but the fed is not so hawkish. the gap is closing and it causes euro-dollar to go down. anna: thank you very much. these days with us a little longer. usie, thank you for joining for this early morning confrontation. 11 minutes past 7:00. a year after bill gross was ousted, he is looking for vindication. we heard throughout the area dissatisfaction with the way he left at pimco. >> i didn't like how i left, so to speak. thedn't care for aspirations that i might have lost my touch. i don't think i have lost my touch. i am in this seven days a week, 18 hours a day. interest, and hopefully the performance numbers speak to confidence. anna: now he is suing pimco for
$200 million over his shock departure from the bond giant. caroline hyde has more. caroline: explosives story. the language puts david to test. power, greed, for a desire to improve their own financial position. these are the claims that are being aired at the moment by bill gross. he is suing for wrongful termination and breach of written contact, breach of good faith. but he is claiming colleagues, the man whof them took his place, he says that together, with a cabal of managing directors, drove him out, all for this bonus pool he gets at the end of the year. they wanted to divide it amongst themselves, up to $250 million. he now wants at least $200 million back, which isn't going
to go into his pocket. he is already worth $2 billion. he says he has suffered damages. interestingly, we managed to get on his lawyer, and she really tried to say it wasn't about the money. repeating,said and i to the extent he gets any compensation, it is going to charity. he just wanted to tell his story, because he thinks that his you of facts and his understanding of facts has been misrepresented in the past. this was his opportunity and he is taking it. caroline: this is about his reputation. this is also about a departure that rocked the market at the time. we saw a record outflows coming from what was the top mutual fund in the world, no longer because of his exit, and this will continue to rock pimco. anna: how have they responded?
caroline: they say that a lawsuit has no merit and that the legal team will be was wanting in court in june. the reports have been all over the media. his co-cio left at the beginning of 2014. the clashes at the top have been aired in full favor of everyone to see, but it seems to be this is not about the client. it is going to be a film. bet my bottom dollar this is a film in the making. [laughter] david: i would watch that movie. anna: you don't fancy being cast in it. david: no. [laughter] anna: caroline, thank you. coming up, could angela merkel's handling of the refugee crisis when her this year's nobel peace prize? with the decision due in a couple hours, we will have their after the break. ♪
anna: 17 minutes past 7:00 and countdown. here are the stories you need to know this morning. minutes of the september meeting from the u.s. fed was darkened by threats. china's slowing growth was perceived as a threat to emerging markets. speculation that the fed will raise interest rates -- on top -- on the5 trillion first four days of this week. the malaysian ringgit is headed for -- as investors move back into riskier assets. bill gross is suing pimco after his shock departure last year. the executive says he is pushing the malaysian ringgit is headed for -- he was pushed out for them to get their hands on his bonus.
vienna's mayor may be upsettingg europe -- voters from britain to the balkans. this weekend's election could democrat lose their grip on austria's capital for the first time since world war ii as people turn to the anti-immigrant freedom party to stop the sudden influx of refugees. jonathan tyrone joins us from vienna. the to have you on the program. how is the migrant crisis been affected, the mood around the selection? jonathan: the influx of migrants that we have seen double in the last eight months has caused a great deal of anxiety among the emmys the -- among viennese voters, topped by rising rent prices and falling wages, and of course unemployment. it adds more fuel to the fire. anna: is this being seen, then,
as something of a tip of the iceberg in terms of the political reaction that we could see, for the migration and refugee crisis that has been very much at the forefront of the european news flow? jonathan: the refugee crisis is interesting because it ties threads together between underlying economic crisis that we haven't recovered from and this new refugee wave. when you begin to study the demographics of the people who were supporting the freedom party, it is predominantly male trade who are going to lower education levels. find themselves competing directly of the job market against these new arrivals.
moreover, when you look at a sector like housing, vienna has a huge housing stock that goes for the low range -- the low-wage workers in municipal housing. if you are a migrant, where do you go to live? usually, municipal housing. the people supporting the freedom party are those most directly affected by this wave of migrants. anna: thank you for joining us. hours, we will hear who has won this year's nobel peace prize. we don't even know who has been nominated, angela merkel has emerged as the favorite for the prestigious award. i'm not for betting, but maybe. hans nichols joins us now. we establish that you don't have any money, but you do have some insight. hans: well, in some ways we
won't have inside for 50 years. that is when the minutes of the nobel committee become public. you look at the said minutes -- we get those weeks later. you and i will have to live a long time to figure out what happened to angela merkel, if she did indeed win. here are some of the odds. 2:1 at paddy power. has herr -- ladbrooks 5:1. it looks like he has some predictive power. either way, we are going to have a big discussion inside germany whether she wins or loses. all the papers are doing what i would call a classic hedge, taking out all kinds of news prints. we have a list of all the past german winters. i was unaware that the first german winner was in 1926. then henry kissinger, born in germany. they are claiming that he is their own. also billy brandt in 71.
the former mayor of berlin. we have the congolese doctor who helps rape victims in the congo. his country is war-torn and he is there. the refugees are crossing the mediterranean. in some ways, if you think this will come down to the mediterranean crisis and the refugee crisis, you can make a case that angela merkel is going to get it. if you think this will be on other issues, particularly if the judges were more focused on angela merkel earlier, when she had a great deal of criticism for her response to greece, i am less confident. but that is all a long-winded way of saying i don't have a clue. maybe you do. angela merkel is off to checkers this weekend. a place i am sure you have been many weekends with a variety of prime minister's. anna: oh, yes.
for david cameron's birthday. const nichols, thank you very much. -- hans nichols, thank you very much. i'm pretty sure i'm not getting get it. we can rule us out of the equation. let's get some final thoughts. i am interested in your colleagues' recent bond call. david: yes. anna: tell us about his bids. david: he had fantastic track record, and he just cut his tenure forecast. i think he is on your show next week. give him a plug their. 1.5% 10 year bonds. anna: we haven't seen 10 year bonds with the yield of 1.5% since 2012. david: that wasn't that long ago. anna: do you think things will feel less nervy? david: they already are. inflation are talking about inflation in 2018.
about your guests talking u.k. inflation getting to 1% next year. this is a disinflationary world. anna: talking disinflation, a lot of depends on the commodity cycle. thinking that the negativities -- everyone have said it is done, inflation is coming up. now it is back to below 50. we have tried that one. about commodity prices -- i think they will level off. the instinct is that they will retire but i don't think it makes a difference. you have this massive low unemployment rate in the u k and u.s., not causing wage inflation. the dynamics of how the labor market works is completely different. anna: what does that mean for some of the commodity currencies? david: i think they have run their course. there is no need to be bearish
on aussie in qe. these currencies have come a long way, so i am not getting bearish. i was very bearish on them before, by now i am really flakish. anna: we have been talking in very negative terms all day, how you are not so optimistic about the dollar -- david: the thing about the dollar -- anna: tell us the other side. euro-dollar 120. the reason of -- david: when the fed raised rates, who is next? it will be the u.k. that is next. then we have this european referendum coming up, and that is going to be harmful. anna: we will has many more conversations before we get that referendum. thank you. david bloom. just time to check in on those
anna: 7:30 in london. here are the stories you need to know. minutes of the september meeting of the fomc show an upbeat feeling about the u.s. economy was darkened by threats from abroad. policymakers felt the slowing growth raised risks that the dollar might strengthen further. speculations that the fed will raise interest rates until risks from outside u.s. boosted stocks in asia. $2 trillion rout of this and investors moved back into riskier assets. for gross is suing pimco
$400 million over his shock departure from the bond giant. ofaccused his executive pushing him out in order to get their hands on his bonus. he says he wants to expose unethical behavior. we are less than half an hour away from the start of the european equity trading -- let's have a look at where the futures are positioned. we should get a decent bounds at , up by more trade than 1% on all the major indices . let's check in on the markets over in asia -- a pretty decent day. shery ahn is standing by. day withpretty decent the benchmark index headed for the best weekly gain in almost four years -- let me take you through some of the crises. emerging market currencies are now headed for their best gain in more than six years -- there
is more speculation that the feds won't be raising rates this year. the indonesian rupiah and the malaysian ringgit are now headed for their best weekly gain in more than a decade, the rupiah gaining more than 9%, its best weekly gain since 2001. the malaysian ringgit is also seeing his best weekly gain since 1998. we are seeing the ringgit andrew p a gaining more than 6% since last friday. gaininghave the rupiah for a second consecutive week and there is more speculation that demand will keep rising for acal assets -- we have seen net $219 million of indian thanies after dumping more $3.5 billion in august and september. analysts say that this rally in emerging market currencies may
not be able to be sustained, saying that the rallies will have slowing growth and prospects for more in raising -- more easing in asia. back to you. anna: shery ahn joining us from hong kong. the group best known for making plastics is operating a wind farm in germany today all in a bid to become 100% renewable. the ceo of lego -- great to see you. he joins us just north of hamburg. you are not reading a wind farm. i understand you want to offset your carbon footprint, but why invest in a wind farm -- why not just buy all your energy from green sources? feel that it is much more exciting and meaningful to be based on renewable investments
that contribute to the world's capacity of renewable energy rather than offsetting carbon credits. but do we see this -- anna: but do we see this as a diversification and what it is? jorgen: not at all. that isthe investment surrounding the legal group so it is definitely part of our core business separation and we are also collaborating today to inaugurate a wind farm today -- we are partnering and putting capital interest because we think renewable energy is so important for the legal group that it is not part of our business model -- ,nna: what kind of time frames or is this just a one-off? n: this takes care of our
protected energy consumption by 2020, so we are very happy to enter this today. then in an ongoing basis, we will evaluate future needs as they come along. anna: how is the lower oil price playing into your business at the moment? it must be a fairly energy intention of manufacturing process. you have quite a carbon footprint offset but the relative oil weakness must be helping. angen: it does have influence, but it is fairly the raw in that material cost is fairly small proportion of the overall cost in the labor group. themajor cost items, manufacturing process and product development and marketing efforts. it influences us, but not in a highly significant way. anna: interesting. what about the consumer and environmental europe?
as we run up to this christmas and holiday season, do you think it will be a good one for europe? do you see consumers in europe more eager to spend? noticing anye not big difference in the consumer environment, but we certainly have a very strong start to the year. we expect that trend to continue. however, seen through 10 years or more, there is hardly any correlation between the underlying macroeconomic development. i am not sure anyone to give any indications. anna: thank you for joining us. the ceo of lego. we were talking about the commodities in the week oil price. oil headed for its the best weekly gain since august amid speculations that an increase in demand will increase global demand. let's speak to aaron clark, who
joins us from tokyo. what is behind this week's rise? we had some fairly interesting comments coming through from the opec secretary-general, not on supply perhaps but on demand. aaron: exactly. rose above $50 per barrel yesterday for the first time since july. it is again today trading at $50 per barrel, and that is the key resistance level. the fact that it went above that shows that there is bullish sentiment in the market. people think that prices may rise further. but there are two main factors, and the first is demand. opec said earlier this year that they may increase their forecast for demand growth to 1.5 million barrels a day this year. that is more than previous. what they are saying is that the oil prices are beginning to stimulate demand for buyers. that is one factor. the other thing is that oil prices are forcing some
producers to cut back on production. in the u.s., production has fallen seven out of the last nine weeks. you even had shell saying they will pull out of the arctic. shows the conundrum that a lot of producers face with very low prices. they either have to cut back on existing projects or scale back on exploration for future production. anna: aaron, thank you for joining us. aaron clark in tokyo. we are getting breaking news from dsc. caroline hyde is standing by. caroline: business and an innate story -- and mma story coming back from the dead. talks withdsc and it the us-based competitor. he said we will postpone any share buyback for the next acquisition opportunity. you look at the old opportunity and it is the new one, and they agreed to a deal. uti to form a
global powerhouse in terms of supply chain services and logistics. $ey will be coughing up 7.10 share dollars per share. this is $1.35 billion worth of enterprise value for being put upon the u.s. company, uti. clearly, this is going to form a big company. uti has 21,000 employees and $4 billion of annual revenue, so clearly this will be a big company being formed. let's get an investors take on that story and much more besides. we are joined by kevin lilly. kevin, in the transport logistic sector -- you own one of these businesses. kevin: in d.c. this is completely new to me as well. we own it's because we are seeing a big pickup and traffic across europe. nicely,een picking up
in line with the european economy. we see that is a big play on economics. it remains to be seen with the details are, whether it is a good thing or not. obviously they are diversifying more away from europe. anna: is that the type of european business you are interested in, playing that recovery -- kevin: yes. we are a company oin france, and rethink think the european recovery is still carrying on. there might be more growth rate and some people anticipated, but we think around 1.5% this year, and next year is a reasonable expectation. anna: you have also been buying car stocks because you like the recovery. have you been topping up your stocks and cars because of the weakness we have seen across the sector after that vw scandal? kevin: it was the best-performing sector at the end of may.
first of all because word on china, the oversupply in the chinese market. the stoxx originally sold off on the vw news again. we are down 40% at the low point a couple weeks ago, so we have been chopping off on companies like renno, valio. so you are certain enough that the vw scandal doesn't spread too far into other companies? you don't find that this has been something taking place everywhere, and others are implicated? yevin: yeah, we are prett sure about that. major competitors are coming out and saying they are not involved. they wouldn't say that at this stage if they were, because they would be threatened even more. we think that people won't stop buying cars. they will just buy cars from a different manufacturer.
anna: and these are the ones you think will benefit from that, and also the fact that they are quite european? they are the ones that you wouldn't have been buying if you are looking for chinese growth. kevin: that's right. the non-german cars will benefit. spain, italy, france. anna: you also like the banking stocks in europe. kevin: that's right. last year was all about sorting out the capital, and that has largely been done. anna: apart from a bit this week. kevin but we aren't involved in deutsche bank:. more than mainstream commercial banks. they are the plays on european recovery. now they can set their business up for growth again. anna: kevin lilley stays with us. coming up, we hear from christine lagarde at the imf and world bank, as we see that
anna: welcome back. 7:46 here in london. the sun is just rising, a bit elsewhere in46 continental europe. here the stories you need to know. the september minutes of the fomc show that feelings about the u.s. economy could invite threats from abroad. policymakers felt the slowing --wth raise risks speculation boosted stocks in asia this morning on top of the two point $5 trillion added to
the value of global stocks. time, the malaysian ringgit is headed for the best week since 1998 as investors go back into riskier assets. bill gross is suing pimco. he accuses executives at the company he cofounded of pushing him out in order to get their hands on his bonus. he says he wants to expose what he says about -- he says is unethical behavior. likeis what futures look -- we are set for a decent start to friday's trading session, up on euro stocks. they are suggesting that the fed will be patient in its rate hike even though many -- it seems that the markets have gone a bit risk on as a result. around 1.3% on the euro
stocks. let's have a look about how the messages from september's fomc minutes have been going down they werets -- talking points at the imf world bank annual meeting in peru and there was little consensus with leaders expressing mixed views on when the fed should press go. says wean authority will be data dependent, there and they will be unemployment and inflation. inflation numbers have to be solid. we have to see them and for the moment there is not much on the horizon, neither on inflation or on wages. favor, asry much in soon as it is possible, to normalize what we do in monetary policy. the same will go for europe -- we are in a different phase. the u.s. is ahead of us and economic recovery -- let's not
postpone it. if it is the right time. >> the fact is that america's recovery is anemic. the fomcok beyond whatever percent unemployment rate, the true unemployment rate , people working part-time, is over 11%. is that theyation are doing pretty well and they will continue to go at some point this year -- our guess is december. i am not in the business of guessing when the next fed move is -- what is much more important is that the fed will give to the market. anna: let's get some final thoughts from kevin. he is still with us -- we have a number of voices from the imf what theylking about
think the fed will do -- what is your estimate? what do you think they will do? kevin: i am hoping they will just get on with it and start raising rates -- it is very low in the u.s. and growth is still reasonably slow. anna: there is a theory that this is a very anemic growth story still in the u.s., that unemployment is higher than most numbers suggest. kevin: well if you look at the competent indicators, they are still pretty firm. i still think the recovery is reasonably good. that the chinese government will be coming up with a new five-year plan which ,ay be another stimulus plan which reignites interest and emerging-market currencies, the fear that it could affect emerging markets. that could lend some
support to some of the companies we are going to hear from during earnings season. it is looming, isn't it? kevin: the expectations in the u.s. are fairly low. they were depressed mainly because of the currency. i think there is a potential. expectations in general are being lowered in anticipation of the weaker chinese growth. we are going into this period where the chinese government will be coming up with their new five-year plan. i can't imagine they will come up with anything that will try and depress growth. if anything, it will give more stimulus. anna: some more stimulus is more likely than not? evin: expectations have probably gone to two low-level. anna: what else do you like in europe? you quite like some fairly cyclical stocks. kevin: we think the
european recovery will continue. we really like lufthansa. they have really been beaten up over the last few years. they are a high-class airline competing with strikes. challenger asa well and there have been quite a lot of strikes. there was a court ruling in germany which means that they are now viewed as illegal. this is a company that is benefiting massively from fuel cost reductions and the hedges are rolling. they have reaffirmed their guidance for the year, which will put the stock on about six -- that is far too cheap. anna: they can take quite a while for the benefits of lower fuel prices to be felt. kevin: and oil prices are given this takes quite a
long while to feed through the system, so they will get benefits from the second half of this year and more benefits next .ear anna: are you fixated on euro-dollar? kevin: i think the ecb will probably do more if it views it as necessary. -- ildn't say i am fixated can't see any reason why it should break out of those towns, and i think they will try and micromanage the currency. anna: thank you very much for joining us. kevin lilley. utes to go until the start of european agree trading. it looks like it will be a positive one. futures are fairly confident we will open on the front foot. jon, good morning. jonathan: i have one question
coming into the release of his federal reserve minutes -- how close were they to hiking interest rates? it seems not that close at all. global risk was the dominant concern. we repeated the line again and again that china -- it seems that they are watching it. the good news is that the bad news equals good news, because ever since we put together the fed minutes with the payrolls reports from friday, it is bad news/good news, and markets have kept rallying. rallying, thes mining stocks are the big focus. we will also talk about what is quickly becoming the financial soap opera that is bill gross's exit from pimco. anna: thank you very much. jon ferro will be up with "on the move." david bloom was calling it the mañana rate hike, which i quite like, suggesting that it keeps being delayed. just how many times economists
had to delay expectations. jon, thank you. we will be back at the top of the hour. time to check in on the futures -- things are fairly positive, euro stocks up by just over 1%. the last european trading day of the week. we have the fairly dovish minutes coming through, a fairly patient outlook in terms of when the fomc wants to push the button it hike interest rates. that seems to have unleashed a more risk on sentiments. today we have been asking, is the metal prices -- get in touch with me. that will do it for me. have a good weekend. ♪
dax futures higher. of gains we've had so far. caroline: check out the amount of value that has been added to stocks. here in europe, 300 and 50 billion euros. it is been minas, it is been off all leading the charge as we open up we're already up on the ftse 100. uphave the dax currently just a little bit delayed. it, the opening cause already. i want to show you this particular chart.