tv On the Move Bloomberg October 13, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT
-- three big stories. but the 100 dead flat. a couple of stocks to look at. let's get to the market open with caroline hyde. caroline: the longest winning streak in european stocks since july today. on the downward side as we see that data overflow from data -- from asia. down 17.7%. if you're looking at the dollar value, up 20%. 11 straight months of decline for chinese imports. it highlights concerns about domestic in china. we are seeing the cac up 10%. slowly but surely we're likely to see a little bit of money coming off the table when it comes to equity value, concerns
-- copper by .7% -- copper down by seven -- on a downward trajectory. the likes of australia. the dollar down by .5%. the fx i want to talk about is if the british pound. 68 billion pounds worth of m&a coming forth. that is going to drive up the target sterling. pounds, mega brewing deal. will own company that half of all the profit and the entire bear market. one in every three beers is sold by this juggernaut. they like the fact that they are able to get there clutches on sab miller. what assets will they have to
sell? have to dispose of joint ventures in china and america? that is what we are going to have to take into. wait for that stock. back of getting a new chief executive. a boston bred man. back to you. jonathan: caroline hyde, thank you very much. we'll keep an eye on sab miller. asia, ugly data out of china. let's get to juliette saly. to you.: good morning that import data out of china really disappointed. .mports falling that is seen quite a bit of weight. weighing on the australian dollar and the yuan in china.
copper prices fall. on the close, it looks like we got a little bit of a pop from shanghai. stocks up. good news coming through from automakers. sales have grown at its slowest pace in three years. the hang seng market in hong kong down by .5%. price weighingil on the rest of the region. japan was close yesterday, so despite the rally in asian energy yesterday, players leading the decline. that data a little bit disappointing. we have finished asian session in the red. falling from those seven-week highs reached yesterday. jonathan: juliette, thank you very much.
here's what is happening for the next hour. ab inbev agrees to buy sab miller. , the trade slow down. of hsbc.ecall out the ceo search over for barclays? just daily is said to be the man. -- just daily is said to be the man. a deal may have been brewed. as a be -- ab inbev may reached sab miller.y caroline hyde has the details. encumber my's, because 44 pounds is the per-share amount they are going to be agreeing to. 68 billion pounds, no wonder we saw the impact on the british pound. for four pounds a share.
that is 50% premium. all of the speculation that blowup about the megadeal that came out september 14. with seen a surge of sab miller shares. they are extending the deadline. the clock was ticking. it was 5:00 p.m. that they had to get a deal or aba -- or ab inbev. let's get a big and into some of the numbers. $3 billion reverse break free -- break fee. regulators don't let this go -- abh or if anything inbev moves away. a partial share alternative.
lifters of the sab miller, two key players in this. a owning- all tree 14%. if they get this talk of cash coming toward them. that is a big tax credit break. the tax is going to be hefty. that is why they are getting a partial share alternative. they're getting part of the money in shares. that has helped the deal get through. as a be miller -- sab miller. jonathan: opening up by 9%. the megadeal. let's bring in someone who knows a thing or two. hsbc head of fixed income research. thomas, let's start with you.
the people behind this deal, the people who prevented this from happening finally got a -- finally got an agreement. thomas: we assume so. perspicuous and come at the figure around 44 to 46. to 40.ve the initial 38 jonathan: what sucks this deal from happening? one out of every shares sold, this was -- if this was in any other industry, regulators would be having a look at this. interesting,is geographically -- there are very few regions -- those include the u.s. where sab miller joins a joint session owns a joint venture.
miller owns a joint venture. in china, sab miller has a joint venture with china resources expected -- that is [indiscernible] jonathan: i'm to take you to steve's world. how much data is going to be used to fund this deal. thomas: we broke this story early on. the capacity of 70 billion. doubt, tothrow in megadeals and about $120 billion potentially. is there a story there? steven: there is -- there is supply coming. the problem in credit is --
someone is selling bonds they already own. it could be a new issue. those are huge numbers by any standard. the market has to accommodate this kind of size very quickly. if the risk appetite is not there, because the more systematic practices are changing. .ou have a risk off for example who is going to buy the bonds? at what price? jonathan: the discussion is this could be frontloaded. getting a deal over the line. that feds have already -- will they be demand? general, the lower the corporate [indiscernible] if you believe the rates are going to go up, issue now.
make, what is going on yet go and 11 straight -- and 11th straight month. call -- nick: what you're saying is the impact of yuan devaluation. imports were down. the fall could've been worse, had the yuan not devalued. we are getting into a situation where we're looking at this data and saying it is not quite as bad as it could've been. it is a turnaround from a year wereo ago when the numbers going like gangbusters. a new normal for the chinese economy where they are being crippled by overcapacity and weaker demand at home, as well as weaker demand overseas. there've been reports about china accelerating its stockpiling of resources. is there a story of the numbers released and the last 24 hours? nick: when you're seeing is imports, the main number is down
more than 17%. that reflects falling commodity prices. including oil. the stockpiling was suggest china is taking advantage of these lower oil prices. also in august, commercial inventories were quite low. that freed up a lot of room for stockpiling. the economy may be struggling. it is the world's second-biggest and gas andfor oil sectors across the board. it looks like people are taking advantage of those low commodity prices. jonathan: and about 30 seconds, if you can, we used to get ugly prince and chinese data, people would call it noise because it was such a volatile data point. this is coming -- this is becoming quite consistent. do we say there is a story here? nick: what is clear is there is a slowdown. when you look at the gdp figure for the end of the year, the
target is 7%. we're hearing rumblings that it could come in at 6.4%. it does add credence to the idea that the economy is slowing more than the government would want or expect. jonathan: great to have you with us. painting the picture of a pretty fragile economy in china. hsbc's major call. 5% by 10 year deal, up the end of 2016. that is not only a sizable cut of two point 8%, it is way below consensus. hsbc had a fixed income research. steven major nailed the bond market last year. a controversial call. he joins us now with another bold forecast. steven major going against the grain. , i think ugly5%
world. what paints the picture for you to deliver that forecast? aeve cohen 1.5% sounds like -- steve: 1.5% sounds like it big number. compare the u.s. bond deal to the german bond deal, to these countries, the u.s. is a high-yield or. we have to bear in mind the international picture. clearly, there is a big impact on what is happening in japan and germany, china. it is pulling down the u.s. yield. it is not the only thing. i don't believe the growth forecasts from the fed. saying that is controversial. look at the track record. they have custom lee been overestimating where growth will be. history is no guide to the future. on every thing that we can see, they will be wrong again. jonathan: they do not wake up and decide to cut it by 150
basis. the question i would ask you is you nailed the bond market in 2014. as you look at bonds, whether it is rates, inflation or the -- or what happens on the term premium. i wonder how your thought process has developed and whether that is the crucial point? steve cohen through 2015, we pull up the view of 2014 with curves deepening. that was about term premium. term premium is driven by international factors, not just what the fed is doing when the fed buys bonds, it flattens the curve. when china are the countries by bonds, it brings the forecast down. flows volatility. all of these factors are involved. clear the qe years, it is
this was a dominant factor. everything went up together. equities, credits, commodities, treasuries. every was rising at the same time. close to is exhaustion, it is speaking towards the end. you still exposed. you're left with the risk on /risk off factors. if it becomes more risky, their world is uncertain. you haven't got the never-ending qe. what is happening is collectively when you add it all up around the world, japan, europe, u.k., u.s., china, it is flatlining. it is not like we have this addition of qe. qe to be effective has to be fast and furious. it needs to shock. it is not shocking us right now. it is fading. john could you bring up the curve. you go to the 5 -- jonathan: you bring up the curve.
steven: the five will be the new twos in two years time. it is flattened out to the two-year already. if you look at japan, the curve flattened into the fives. germany is done the same right now. it flattened from zero to two and then from two to five. jonathan: the headline called it a 10 year. steve cohen five-year you can see from the date in the charts. it is a big call. we're pulling the curve down from the five-year. the curve flattens from the front. cycle,nventional rate pre-2008, when the central bank put rates up, the curve flattened. you don't have it here, you have a 4.5 trillion fed balance sheet. it is completely different. flattens from it
the front, not from the back. biggest: what is the respect you have had on this call? adeeti: the common denominator is people looking at the -- steve: the common denominator is people looking at the push back. wages and the stuff that the fed tells you to look at. this data isys dependent, that is going to pull rates up, i should say the fed is going to put rates up to. how about the fact that they are wrong? they will tell you they are going to do something and they don't do it. fx,than: mr. bloom, head of is there any tension there? steven: the 1.2 euro-dollar core is totally consistent with the bund and the treasury spread. going to make 10% on
fx over the next year, if the euro goes up, 10% is no free lunch. yet to have a compensation factor. the treasuries need to outperform to make everything flat. -- they fits are together perfectly. if the euro-dollar goes up, treasury should fall more than boone's. bunds. jonathan: another controversial call. he will be back before the end of the year. steve merge -- steven major, thank you very much. has barkley found its next ceo? will he lead the bank? stay with us. ♪
jonathan: good morning. welcome back to "on the move." i am jonathan ferro. here are bloomberg's top stories. ab inbev has agreed to by sab miller. the agreement cap's more than two weeks of back-and-forth over the price. over halfives control of the industries profit. slump. imports the data extends the street.
the most in six years. exports down by 1%. beating an estimated fall of 7%. dicaprio's ducks and is joining with paramount pictures to make a movie about the diesel scandal. paramount says it has acquired the film rights. barclays, the three-month hunt for a new boss. it might be over soon. sources say the lender is close to naming former jp investment jess daly.t -- caroline, give us the data. caroline: ringing true of bob diamond and is fat -- and is to be said about jess daly. he could begin in the dumps up in the next two weeks.
-- the thumbs up in the next two weeks. he jumped ship to become a -- heat as he was passed over for promotion jpmorgan. to take over over for diamond himself. they thought he was in the running before we saw antony jenkins take the helm. the former ceo jenkins -- he found it difficult to deal with investment banking unit in the shrinking of it. they are getting rid of the trading but downsizing to reduce the overall risk. they are focusing on expansion. equity capital markets. there is area for growth. overall, there are some of the best performers. instinct areas of the boost in returns, doubling in share price.
that is the key target for barclays to achieve in the next three to four years. taley.h call for jes s long way to go. this is what investors want to hear. white we are seeing the share price down today as well as of the banking industry. is there real concern that he could expand the -- these will be the rest of the banks. they are going to want to hear a commitment to investment banking. hyde, thankroline you. let's get to an analyst, sandy chen. .e joins us now sandy, great to have you with us. there are going to be some people who say it is bob diamond all over again. what was your initial take away? boston,y being born in -- i meane comparison
this is a jpmorgan banker. former colleague at barclays as well. they brought these people on board to help him make the key decision about the investment bank. jonathan: what you think happens with it? sandy: i think we have advocated for a while. the investment bank be called it down. shipped to the u.s.. roots -- backeman to the layman roots. people who could do who are the people being assembled at the executive level. two former j.p. morgan investment bankers. jonathan: when you look at the decision made by john mcfarland,
after the ousting of mr. jenkins. that jes isou think set to be that guy? sandy: they have cut their teeth. in one of the big u.s. investment banks. you don't get there and stay there for a couple of decades without being reasonably skilled. jonathan: you got two guys from jpmorgan. is there a story that jpmorgan is a new goldman for the talent pool? sandy:f the things is -- one of the things, jpmorgan is quite acceptable. jonathan: how important is that
to work with the regulators? sandy: i imagine it is highly important. winters, hisat background in terms of sitting on regulatory committees and oversight, i think it helps banks conversations with its regulators. the same effect here. question, heal takes the job, what is the first thing he's got to do? .andy: get down to the numbers , thank youandy chen very much for joining us this morning. about 30 minutes into the trading day. let's see how things are shaping up. the ftse 100 winning streak and yesterday. the dax winning streak ends today. where down .9% coming out of a
seven-day winning streak. .9% coming out of a seven-day winning streak. ugly data out of china. trade numbers, imports, down 18%. the aussie dollar gets hit. a nine-day winning streak on the aussie dollar. we snap that, down by .6%. brent crude down. up .9%. let's move to a country that knows something about commodities. russia and recession. the oil prices and the western sanctions hit the country's finances. ryan chilcote is in the country this morning. reich oh -- ryan: he said he
didn't believe the goldman sachs forecast that it is going to persist at the level it is right now for the next 15 years. they can't really control the oil price here, so they are not overly worried. they can do something about the sanctions, or at least vladimir putin can do something about the sanctions. we spent some time talking about that. sectionst believe the will be eased come january. the sanctions are a big issue for the business community here. they can't really borrow abroad. it is effectively locked out of capital markets. they cannot borrow long-term money from the central bank. the central bank was concerned that money could get -- he said we are still ok. have a listen. problemn't have any with the dollar liquidity. populationl, our
converted many of their robles -- their rubles. companies prefer not to borrow money for the same reasons. look liquidity. a bigger demand on a rubles. ryan: one thing that audrey coast and is really happy about -- andrey kostin is happy about -- up almost 30%. it doesn't mean that it is not 50% down over the last six months, this seems to be some sort of optimism that things could be improving. on the geopolitical front, i don't think -- i think they think things have eased on the geopolitical tension with the
ukraine. you buy get some of the more speculative investors coming back into the market. back to you. jonathan: if you look in the commodity markets, we have had a rebound in commodity, and oil specifically. a slight rebound. we had a ruble a little bit stronger over the last month. as you sit there and talk to various participants in the conference, is everyone happy with the ruble strengthening? ryan: not necessarily. it was up over the last month. it has volatility. where thellwether ruble is going to stand. it is the most volatile currency in the world. the lower the oil price, the lower ruble should be.
and once a week ruble for that exchange rate. i don't think everyone is comfortable. the government first and foremost with the ruble strengthening. the question i'm going to be putting to the head of the russian central bank, we're going to discuss the ruble at length. russia has a free float. the central bank has not done over the last few months is by any hard currency as an were during the summer. if they do that, that wishes the ruble down. a lot of people are going to be waiting to hear on whether she can -- if she intends to resume that. back to you. russia chilcote out of -- jonathan: ryan chilcote out of russia. -- leaving the eu would diminish
the uk's role on the world stage. >> in short, do we choose to be stronger? an economy that creates opportunity into the future? or do we choose to be weaker by taking a leap into the unknown echo less able to influence global developments that may risk our economy. that make optimized our safety. jonathan: how would the outcome affect written and it's territories. a brexitguest says would destroy gibraltar. fabian, great to have you with us. you are trying to navigate political risk. yet the elections in spain, and upcoming referendum and the u.k. fabian: access to the market is an important part of what gibraltar needs. self-examination to
determine your own political future is down the road to self-sufficiency, to be up to pay for your outgoings and not have to rely on anybody else. margaret thatcher said to gibraltar sell into the single european market. any services you can originate in this tiny but effective place. jonathan: you did that. if i look at the scott's example, they are talking about what happened. exit,k. votes for an effectively putting the referendum question back on the table, i wonder how that applies to gibraltar. not a part of the -- whether or not you wake up not a part of the eu. what you do then? it is not about whether we are good to be more prosperous. that is not on the agenda. theus, i am emphasizing
single market. the important thing is access to the single market. freedom of movement of people. when david cameron is saying has a lot of resinous for gibraltar. of course we believe the single market has to continue. there are people throughout the eu who believe that. not everyone believes in an ever closer political union. this trading block be as efficient as possible. do we have to set them in the way that we set them today? i think cameron's right to pursue that agenda. jonathan: you keep referencing the trading block there to sit there and draw the conclusion that you want to stay away from the european union. but keep the single markets. i want you to challenge that few. is that the view of gibraltar? that it would not mind coming out as long as you stay in the
fabian: before the premise to comes back with the fruits of its investigation. we want to be within the european union for a simple reason. nobody is telling us what happens in the event that we are to leave the european union. continuesible you can to have access to the single market? without havingt the ability to influence how that market is shaped? i want a seat at the top table. is why the state can leverage the uncertainty. that is going to become more important as we come to the point of the referendum. what i want to understand is the test getting affect of an exit. talk to me about how it cascades to your economy. even if we get a yes vote to leave, it will take years to
play out. what does it mean for your economy? fabian: talk about financial services, break that down. the insurance sector. the ability tom passport through the european union. if you look at the online gaming sector, although they are not lost on freedom of movement,, you have to on a case-by-case basis, apply to different markets where there is a regulation. we look at the other territories, who don't have access. it is much harder for them. tonce, where relighting -- throughout passport the european union. kaman would be very successful in accessing the u.s., they can market -- u.k. single
the eu single market. junk of your exit and you struggle to access the single market, does it push it to spain? fabian: actually not. nothing will. jonathan: i had to ask. i do your answer. thank you for joining us. pharma under pressure. hillary clinton has shown shift the power to hit form of stock simply by tweeting. tonight the mcculloch debate and the potential -- the democratic debate and the potential fallout. ♪
jonathan: 44 minutes past the hour. your bloomberg's top stories. barclays is set to be close to ley as its new ceo. he is the new front runner for the job. he spent years as an investment banker or jpmorgan here it --. estimates.at analyst demand for wines and spirits lower than anticipated. it japan -- payments process at world bank has priced at 240 pence per share. the company was formally part of nationalized it is slender rba.
a lot of stock stories. let's get to a few of them with caroline hyde. caroline: we have to talk about sab miller after we saw an approved the deal. they managed to lure over ab inbev. up goes sab miller shares. at they said we look to back that deal. this is driving the stock to a record high. 39.30. -- 3930. the deal had to be unraveled. s.a.p. up 5%. this is doing well on the back of its number of reports. we are seeing revenue up 17%. profit up 19%. this is a company that is riding the wave of the clouds. getting itself into -- into the right position at the right
time. clout subscription sales more than doubled. this is a stock falling the most since 1999. leone, a german company. manufacturing selling electric cables and wires. they say they will miss their earnings goals and they are lowering their 2016 revenue target. weaker than anticipated. a stick to health care. americans pay more for prescription jugs than anyone else in the -- prescription drugs than anyone else in the world. tonight, the first democratic candidate debate. hillary clinton and bernie on pressingg vocal pharma. >> three different drugs all treating different diseases. all made by different companies. there is one thing they may have
in common, over the last three years, their prices have rocketed dramatically. they are not the only once. companies putting new price tags on old drugs. this sort of hike get attention from u.s. politicians. although the price of drugs has risen, drugmakers are seeing their value fall. an investigation into pricing of the hepatitis see drug sold out -- hepatitis c drug sold out in 2014. two pharmaceuticals overnight's to raise thenight price to $750 helped to prompt this tweet. the nasdaq biotech index. while president shows are unlikely, it seems the political debate could prove very costly
for big pharma and biotech. jonathan: for more bloomberg intelligence, director of european research, sam, you put this on the agenda. you and i bumped into each other a couple of weeks ago and you said when the debate begins on the democratic side, this is going to be on the agenda big side. agendaagenda big-time -- big-time. sam: your key point was long-term. one of the important things to remember is that i had my colleague from washington, one of the king things he said -- one of the key things he said is what is old is new. going on for years, back into the 1990's. there was a time when people thought the new hiv drugs would if the banks.
pharmaceuticals are self-limiting. getetition comes and you competition -- the history of politics suggest that in this particular case, the u.s. is not willing to go that long -- that last step of price control. jonathan: it is not just careription drugs, health is. or question whether clinton anyone can do anything about rising prices. obama, democrat, had both the senate and house of representatives as democrats behind him when he was passing the affordable care act. in their provisions, there were similar things, but they never got through. how is it ever going to be possible for them to get that
kind of limiting practice? what they should be doing is increasing the speed in which competition can come to market which then creates the opportunity for a drop in price. jonathan: it is always great to have you on. sam, think you very much. up next, the volkswagen scandal may make it to the studio before nhtsa to court. leonardo dicaprio and paramount by the rights. ♪
jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." live from the city of london. germany, their economic problems were compounded with flat data. hans nichols is in berlin. hans, we're looking ahead to vw as well. the pros look at ifo. are you saying we should look at the ew? hans: it seems to be reflecting the negativity that we saw in july and august numbers. he is the concerning thing, if the zew numbers are right, the
german economy is falling off the cliff? you saw chinese imports down 17% , even though the expectations were down to -16%. this is expectations, 16%. you look back to february, march and april, and i know you are in os.bles -- you were in davps readings.ove we get those numbers in about an hour. i am curious to see if they are going to be as negative as the economists are suggesting. jonathan: i am also curious. are you saying that the people are not concerned about the economy? that is fragile ground. vw.ardo dicaprio and what do those things have in
common in this morning? -- it looks like there's going to be a book written. there is movie options purchase. we will see if it gets made. clearly we could have a lot of fun off air talking about who should be cast. we all have a role for anna edwards and guy johnson. jonathan: we are getting breaking news. a man that knows something about swiss banks, sitting to the left of me. switzerland is said to oppose a ratio on the banks. switzerland is said to him pros a leverage ratio on the biggest banks. manus cranny who know something about the ubs is and credit suisse is. manus: was something that was going to come up. how penal the swiss bank regulator would be in terms of
the leverage ratio for banks. you take away all of the is anotherhis restriction. another request in terms of the united -- the amount of capital that needs to be set aside. prepared and see if that is in line with consensus. it is about creating stronger banks, but stronger banks that need more capital which ultimately put pressure on them in terms of the business they can do. jonathan: much more after the break with the pulse. manus cranny together with anna edwards. -- with francine lacqua. if you want to talk about market, i am on twitter. equity markets in the red. set of data out of china. best of luck for the rest of your day. ♪
buycine: ab inbev agrees to anheuser-busch. jonathan: trade troubles. china imports slumped almost 15% after 11 straight months of decline, the longest losing streak in six years. francine: barclays will be heading back to wall street as it is said to be targeting an extra e morgan banker for the job. -- and next jpmorgan banker for the job. welcome to "the pulse,"