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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  October 13, 2015 12:00pm-2:01pm EDT

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in new york, 5:00 in london, and tonight in hong kong. scarlet: welcome to the bloomberg market day. in new york, 5:00 in london, and tonight in hong kong. from bloomberg pulled headquarters in new york, good tuesday afternoon. alix: here is what we're watching their financials getting ready to flex their muscles. major bank earnings begging in earnest -- beginning in earnest. jpmorgan out just hours from now. ab inbev of thing hits proposal to sab miller. if approved, they would command 30% of global beer sales, so how went to shape the industry? democratic presidential candidates take the stage for their first debate tonight in las vegas. none more watch than hillary clinton and bernie sanders. scarlet: we start with today's activity in the markets. let's go to julie hyman who has the latest.
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everyone is back from the three-day weekend. volume is still down today. julie: you would think it would come back today, so maybe there is a waiting game for earnings. we are seeing a very tight range for stocks and very little change. i was looking at some of the leading and lagging stocks. 500 in stocks in the s&p terms of percentage gain, you have a pretty diverse group. united health care, google, pfizer. there doesn't seem to be a catalyst for either of these. on the downside, coke is falling, monster beverage. it owns a stake in a company but it's not clear why they are falling. proctor and gamble, the company is having its investor day, warned that it will feel the impact of currencies. nonetheless, not a lot of direction in today's session. scarlet: jpmorgan will be
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reporting today. a lot of anticipation ahead of that. what are analysts predicting for the sector overall? julie: analysts are predicting a drop of 7.2%. financial services, 5.4%. diversified financials, it goes to the decline of 6.6%. there is an interesting callout from michael hartnett from bank of america merrill lynch, and it redirects a call from earlier this year. he prefers mainstreet over wall street. look at the regional banks versus the brokers. that is what we have seen happen. the white line is the kbw regional banking index. the traditional brokers. they have fallen more than 8% this year while regional banks have risen more than 5%, although a lot of that game has
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happened recently. interesting, going into earnings season, something to keep in mind, as we hear from the regional banks as well as the big, diversified banks. scarlet: thank you. jpmorgan is reporting of or :00 p.m. -- 4:00 p.m. intel will also be reporting after the close. alix:p.m. we want to get a checn the bloomberg first word news. mark crumpton has an update. mark: vladimir putin fires back. haveys some countries oatmeal in their heads when it comes to their military intervention. do notnt putin says they understand russia wants to help the world fight terrorism. a new report says that e-mail server hillary clinton used as secretary of state was vulnerable to hackers. the server used remote access software that allow direct internet connections. such links have prompted
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warnings from the government and tech companies. is looking into whether classified messages were exchanged. she is the front runner and faces off against the other democratic residential contenders tonight in las vegas. cnn will house the first democratic debate. sanders ande bernie three others who will be looking for a breakout moment. webb, andalley, jim former rhode island governor lincoln chafee. vice president biden will not be at tonight's democratic debate, but he will not go unnoticed. a super pac trying to persuade the vice president to run will have an ad on cnn just before the debate. biden has been considering a run for months. tune in to our special one-hour fromdue respect" tonight
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las vegas starting at 5:00 p.m. new york time. that is a look at our first word news. you can always find the latest on bloomberg.com. scarlet: thank you. somehow, i feel of the republican debate will be more entertaining. alix: i would not know. i cut the cord. the one time i am bummed about it. scarlet: investors are looking past week import data in china and shifting their focus on corporate earnings. alix: michael purvis, chief global strategist at weeden is with us. we just heard fortress group is closing its macro fund. michael novogratz will be leaving. what is your take on that? is this indicative of how the macro environment is right now? a lot of macros have had challenging years.
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certainly, months and corners. i don't have any comment on that situation. macro is the hardest type of hedge fund investing to do. in certain ways, the most important. .hey underlie everything if you are a long short manager in equities, you have to look at macro all the time. if you are doing macro all the time, it is easy to get it wrong. scarlet: apparently that is happen with this swiss trade or fortress. in any case, when you look at the macro indicators, i know you are focused on emerging market currencies. .ou say that is critical it goes through a couple of filters before he gets there. michael: i look at the vix curve all the time. it had been flat or converted -- basicallysince
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august. ix never re-steepend. terminalave that in my . this orange line is where the curve is right now. line was three weeks ago. to your point, that is a deep correction. michael: basically an indication of risking getting on. the question is why it is getting involved in a week payroll report. my view is certainly lower longer interest rates helps the real story here which is the emerging market currencies. if you look at emerging market currencies after that report was issued, most did a real reversal. weakening for several months in a row. julierings to light --
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was referencing we are waiting for another footfall. thing that is interesting is divergence of the u.s. economy relative to the rest of the world. from a macro point of view, you cannot let these emerging market currencies fall apart. that's what the market is telling us. if the u.s. continues to do well, that will put upward pressure on the dollar against most currencies, and that will create a higher risk dynamic. that is one of the reasons why we will be choppy or the next couple of months or so. matter how good earnings may or may not come in this season, you need good data from china to get the market back to the point where we can test highs? michael: china is key. along with that, these emerging ,arkets tail risk issues emerging market currencies can stabilize. with decent
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earnings data will set the stage for a push to new highs in the s&p and other u.s. equities. alix: does that mean we have seen the pete dollar as well, and what does that do for companies? maybe it is more the race to parity with the euro that was so topical earlier in the year. maybe that is more range bound. maybe it is not that the dollar rally has stopped, but the other currencies can adjust to it. their economic issues are a little easier to manage. they do not have the superstrong dollar on top of them. scarlet: how much attention do you play to the different -- pay to the different beneficial bringing up negative rates? michael: in the u.k., one of the
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chief economist in the doe talking about that. and german bunds had a negative yield on it. this will be getting a lot more attention on it here. fact, get to that concept, it raises the question -- if the u.s. and global situation is so bad at the fed into do something drastic, do they go to qe 4 or negative rates? that will be an interesting debate. are even crazy that we talking about that, and 30 seconds before, we are talking about the fed raising rates, a strong dollar, and emerging markets need to find a floor. how do you invest when you have these two polar opposite ideas? nominal right now, the negative rate discussion is an outlier discussion. it is definitely percolating more into the mainstream.
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to's hope we do not have really worry about that. it will beto qe4, pretty tough for the fed. they have a strong dislike for the aggressive qe3 we had. and gdp outlook are so poor that they have to do something drastic like negative nominal yields, it will be interesting. you can go through forward ,nflation expectations inflation data, and we are not seeing it come through in a robust way. scarlet: it just shows how little anyone can pull from the data. nobody knows. alix: michael purvis, thank you. coming up, anheuser-busch inbev and sab miller ceiling a $106 billion deal, marking the biggest takeover in u.k. history.
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will regulators give the merger a thumbs-up? alix: does more volatility lie ahead in china? scarlet: and five democratic candidates. what happens in biggest probably will not stay in biggest. why tonight's debate could be crucial for the front-runner hillary clinton. ♪
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alix: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. is time for our business flash. fortress investment group escape
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plan to liquidate the macro business run by michael novogratz. he will retire from the firm by the year and. he helped to build it into a business of more than $8 billion in assets at its peak in 2007. fortress plans to return all capital to investors by the end of 2015. general electric is moving farther away from finance. the company agreed to a deal with wells fargo. the bank is buying the corporate finance unit as well as other assets. -- anmoving back to a emphasis on manufacturing. alix: under armour says pursuing will be another opportunity outside of the athletic performance industry. since 2004.with ua torlet: we want to head over
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our markets desk where julie hyman has more on company stories, starting with jetblue. julie: not doing so well after a string of wins. the company came on with its numbers for august and september. preliminary passenger revenue for available feet mile up 1% in august. that was down we present. this morning, j.p. morgan downgraded the stock as a result. alaska air is being downgraded at a record -- evercore. alaska is not 26% this year. jetblue is up by 57% year to date. those losses coming on the back of a pretty good year. also looking at potash and mosaic. fertilizer makers being upgraded on price discipline in the markets. tradingocks have been as if the market is collapsing,
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and that is not the case, according to one trader. mosaic is up a little bit better than potash. both have been done more than 30% in the third quarter. finally, let's see how stocks are trading with anheuser-busch inbev, as it gets closer to its acquisition of sab miller. 44 pounds a share. sab miller is higher. one important thing to note, it's trading at a discount to the offer price. translated into dollars, about $67 a share. trading at as discount because it could take a while to get antitrust approval for the deal and because it control such a big part of the beer industry. molson coors getting the biggest lift of the three, because as the newly combined beer joint may be forced to sell off some of its assets, one might be the partnership it has with molson coors. alix: possible consolidation.
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thank you so much. if ab inbev and sab miller complete their deal, the new company will sell one out of every three beers worldwide. earn 25imate it could billion dollars in 2016, becoming the world's largest consumer staples company by earnings. scarlet: they would certainly rule the world of beer. ken shea joins us from princeton with more. talk about what kind of control of the market this new colossus would have. going to be a colossus, as you said. scale forthe size and a consumer product this large is almost unprecedented. a $700 billion market. these companies will have a 30% share before divestment. there is not a lot of precedent there. the only thing that you can look at is maybe carbonated beverages. billion, the top
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to having a 65% share. beyond that, this is unprecedented territory. how many assets can we expect to be sold, and will the regulatory scrutiny be enough? clearly, regulators in the u.s. and china are already rolling up their sleeves. there could be other areas like latin america. other than that, not a lot of overlap. this deal is about uncharted territory for ab, notably africa. to answer your question, somewhere between $15 billion and $30 billion could be unlocked in divestments. technology and food, the trend has been for active is investors to push for breakups of company. if this new company does not deliver on growth right away, do
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we presume activist investors move in and take a at the new giant? ken: that is a possibility but i would not bet on it. only because the company will be heavily own still by the biggest stakeholder, 40% or so, by the biggest investor, altria will have a 10% stake. something to keep an eye on. all across food, beverage, tobacco, activist investors getting involved. i would not expect anything near term here. sab management was against the deal. what happens to them now? ken: given their decentralized management style, ab will be looking to them heavily to look at the markets that they do not know right now. said, they know the company, as a competitor, but in
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terms of the region they are not familiar with, they will rely on regional managers, how they are managed. there will be that to keep an eye on, and the response from other beer makers. are they in a scramble to look for potential shooters -- s uiters? ken: i think so. this puts second-tier brewers under the microscope to look at their programs. if you have a competitor on a global scale, compared to this new giant, they will have to look at that, sure. scarlet: thank you so much, ken shea. motto the king's of beer? alix: i don't know, i drink craft beer. new data confirming china's economy continues to lose steam. scarlet: some think commodity prices are to blame.
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why there is reason for metals investors to be worried. ♪
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scarlet: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. the latest trade figures out of china are rekindling fears of a major slowdown. exports falling 4% in september from a year earlier. plungedanwhile, imports more than 20%, as tending that declined to 11 months. these latest numbers are reinforcing views as china loses momentum, demands for other countries goods and services will languish further. look at commodity prices today. zinc,r it is copper or they are all on the decline because of this latest chinese import data. it makes sense when you consider how much chinese demand accounts for global commodities. the amount that it demands of cement, compared to four years
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ago, 14 years ago, is massive. everything from cement, cork, coal, aluminum, has seen a big move up. almost triple what it was in lead compared to years ago. alix: many of those are commodities. when you build bridges and roads, that is what you need. tvshave carter use for rather than for a bridge or something. scarlet: that consumer driven economy that china wants to change from its export-driven economy. alix: i want to talk about the exports. this is how much china actually imported when it comes to on rock copper. it is actually pretty high, the highest in 20 months. imports rose 18% year on year, 30% on month.
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bear with me while i switch my charts. it is not just copper but also iron ore. that is not used for anything like any capex stuff. you do not do that if your country's economy is falling off a cliff. scarlet: it is the growth rate that has people concerned. the trajectory has not slowed down. alix: michael pointed out we are not seeing the same growth rates as he would have seen, but we are not seeing a collapse. commodity prices are about supply. scarlet: we have much more coming up on the bloomberg market day. hillary clinton getting ready for tonight's debate. ♪
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alix: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, welcome back to the bloomberg market day. scarlet: it is going to be 74
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degrees today. it looks very nice. scarlet: let's start with the headlines from the bloomberg first word. cause thewhite house dutch report on the downing of a malaysia airliner over ukraine and it milestone. the russian-made missile brought down the jetliner and caused an explosion four feet from the cockpit. the report also says the plane never should have been flying in the air space that was compromised because of hostilities between russian rebels and ukrainian forces. all 298 people aboard were killed when the plane went down in eastern ukraine in july 2014. more violence in jerusalem. two, stinging men boarded a bus and started shooting and stabbing passengers. meantime, another attacker rammed a car into a bus station and stabbed bystanders.
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israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu was called to an emergency meeting of the security cap, where police were expected to present a plan to halt the violence. the europeanfrom border management agency underscores the issue europe is having with migration. the number of migrants arriving in europe this year is already more than twice the total during all of 2014. more than 710,000 migrants arrived through september. the talent and artificially pulling out of kunduz in northern afghanistan. the group claims their fighters are retreating to avoid further civilian casualties. the northern afghan city briefly fell under taliban and control last month until an offensive drove them out. the acting governor of the province says shops and markets have reopened and life is returning to normal. turkish authorities banned a protest rally organized by activists who lost friends and
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colleagues in the suicide bombings last weekend. about 400 protesters were met by police in riot gear. several protests have corrupted across turkey since the bombings. some have turned into antigovernment demonstrations. turkey holds parliamentary elections in three weeks. that is a look at our first word news now. you can always find the latest on bloomberg.com. alix: thank you. back at home, there is no donald trump to liven things up, but the democrats are ready to rumble in las vegas tonight. you have to say ready to rumble! jim webb, bernie sanders, hillary clinton, lincoln chafee will be debating for the first time. our team of be there from the
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wind hotel. phil mattingly is here from the -- with a preview. it looks like it will be boiling down to hillary clinton and bernie sanders. the others are not really in the race. joe biden has not declared. is this a case where bernie will hit hillary clinton directly, or will he attacked me more oblique? everyone is clearly watching the matchup. if you watch bernie sanders, over the last few weeks, there have been a few implicit jobs. he took a shot at her or her iraq war vote, opposing the president's transpacific trade partnership deal. you have seen and start the process. when you talk to people on his team, they recognize he needs to make it clear that there are differences between he and hillary clinton that maybe would not exist in a normal democratic primary, and that he can be a national candidate.
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how he is able to approach that even though he has said he would be of the fighting and attack lines. how he handles that is something to keep an eye on. alix: what about the others in the race? clearly, they will not be killing it. they could hurt clinton, and does that help sanders in the meantime? one of the interesting people to watch tonight's martin o'malley. former governor of maryland. he has a good face to face retail politics attitude that has not translated in the poll numbers. his team has made it clear that tonight is his introduction to the nation. tonight is everything they have been asking for for the past couple of months. essentially, he has to make a move tonight. means anht is, that attack on hillary clinton. after her about the trade deal, wall street reform, close ties to corporate
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entities. this is make or break for him. you cannot sit at 1% in the polls as long as he has and not have a moment, or you will have to drop out of the race. his team is very cognizant of the fact that he needs to attack and make a mark. they are setting the bar high. you talked to a lot of candidates who want to lower expectations into a debate, but they are doing the opposite. that means he has to perform tonight, or else. scarlet: he has to live up to expectations, at least from his own team. people are waiting to see if joe biden does anything, whether he will enter the race. aere were some pictures of left turn that was ready for him just in case he decides to show up. us anynot given indication of that, but he will be the figure in the room that everyone is talking about. the lonely lecturn
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pictures, still in plastic wrap. it does not look like it will be unwrapped today. every week we look for an update. the simple fact of the matter is, he is polling in double digits in every early primary state and nationally. he will matter tonight, even if he is not there, or if his points are not made. it is really wait and see with the knowledge that the next debate might have another entrance which has real juice in the primary. but for the time being, the focus is on bernie sanders and wait andlinton we will see, as we have been for the last 40 days. alix: it seems like hillary clinton does really well attacking republican. she gets the partisan feeling of , you can unite around me against the republicans. can she do that in a debate where she has four people trying
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to attacker? clearher team has made that they do not want to be attacking bernie sanders one of one. they love the contrast with the republicans and will attack them every day. but they do not like the look of her attacking bernie sanders. it will be interesting to see how she navigates that. she likes policy positions, but there are differences she can point out. you will not see over attacks, at least if it goes according to their plan. scarlet: of course, he will be on the ground covering the debate. specialne in for a all due special "with respect." cord me want to get a again. scarlet: you can ask them to change it at the bar.
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the bond market has seen more turbulence than it has in decades. our high-frequency traders to blame? volkswagen commission scandal is going to hollywood with some help from leonardo dicaprio. we will have an update on the new project. scarlet: bank earnings he got later today with j.p. morgan. traders are bracing for what will be a challenging opening. what the banks are likely to say and how that will weigh on sentiment. ♪
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scarlet: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. alix: i'm alix steel. scarlet: apple is adding written and displays to their computers and this will enhance the
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quality of image and text. imace past few years, the has not been getting much attention, instead focusing on products like the iphone and ipad. alix: vw must fix the diesel cars that were tricked to allude in missions tests. scarlet: smash burger is selling a 40% stake to a company in philippines. they say the deal will boost its international expansion. at deal values smash berger $335 million. alix: you can always get more business news at bloomberg.com. china trade figures are showing more red flags.
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imports fell for the 11th straight month while exports stabilized. >> china at a modest boost in exports. for three months of contraction is hardly cause for celebration. domestic demand falling from commodity prices continues to the chinese imports which plunged 20% and extend the longest losing streak in six years. that why didn't china's trade surplus to $60.3 billion. the key question now is whether they will bow to market pressure for a weaker yen. scarlet: now for a look at the european market close, we check in with our current. mark: european stocks drop for a second session, investors looking at the 11th straight decline in chinese imports. means badut of china news in the mining industries.
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after nine days of gains, a second day of losses. , the best gains streak in 15 years. banks fell after switzerland said it would impose a 5% leverage rate on its biggest banks. when it comes to macro data, look no further than the u.k. britain's inflation rate are negative for the first time , as is the case for the bank of england to delay raising interest rates. german investor confidence call -- on to the weakest level in years as they stand to suffer from the fallout of volkswagen's admissions scandal and weaker growth in emerging markets. have a look at the biggest gainers and decliners across europe. no bigger gain than sab miller, a 99%. -- ab inbevtabled has tabled a 44 pound offer.
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premium, but a 50% the deal does face months of scrutiny by antitrust regulators around the world. that could derail the transaction and that is why shares are trading below the offer price. sap, i should say, up by 5.3%. estimates, a sign the company is managing the ship to cloud computing programs without sacrificing margins. down by 30%, the biggest drop since 1999, after the german industrial company said it would miss its 2015 earnings target. alix: thank you, mark barton. we want to see what is moving in u.s. markets with matt miller. matt: i'm going to start with angie's list. an activist shareholder,
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has bumped up its state to 9.1% from 7.9%. now it says it will pursue a strategy of a takeover, or being taken over, a merger of some sort. it's just a few different suggests a few different targets. investors like that and they have pushed the stock of four and a half percent. then you will see behind me, alphabet, formerly of google. the company has $100 million in cash. they brought in some people from morgan stanley for what one trader calls adult leadership. then they have split off the vc section of the company, hence the term alphabet. the most interesting news i have seen all day today is from tesla. i was thinking about the price of the new model x.
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last week, a lot of analyst said it was too expensive and would be a drag on growth. today i saw a story that said the people who buy this vehicle can afford it. but the l.a. times just came out with a report that small business owners can get a $25,000 tax discount on the model ax. it was a loophole put into the irs tax code to try to encourage small business owners to spend more freely on equipment. you cannot get it on most cars and light trucks because they are too light. with its big battery, is heavy enough to qualify, on top of a federal and state tax credit. so a small business owner could get $35,000 off the model x. alix: very cool. i wonder what that will do for sales? scarlet: which means they can stay in that high occupancy lane
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. tesla's are all over brooklyn as well. it is happening. scarlet: matt miller, thank you so much. do you know mark barton and i went to a guns and roses stadium a few years ago in london, and i saw it on tv the other day? alix: i did not. the u.s. bond market is being played with more volatility than at any time since the 1970's. according to data compiled, outside swings are occurring more than twice as often as statisticians would expect. scarlet: with us from philadelphia is deal about -- guy lebas.
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theust saw a chart about volatility. talk about the link between liquidity. we would expect greater volatility, no surprise, in a time of data following monetary policy. the second point worth making is an important one. you referenced liquidity. i was at a conference, the bond dealers association conference, and that was a big highlight. what marker dissidents are seeing is there is plenty -- market participants are seeing is there is plenty to get bonds, but there is little depth. if you have to transact a larger to 25 million, it is hard get those second buyers at the same price. alix: the other part of the story is, is it the high-frequency traders?
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we have seen a rise in that when it comes to treasuries. what is that doing to distort the liquidity and also these outside volatility moves? guy: that is a great point as well. not long ago, we talked about high-frequency traders as my only a nationally in the a stock function. they have since gotten involved in bond trading and foreign exchange trading. they create an illusory depth to the market. showbiz whiches are small in size and then evaporate as the market begins to move. it tends to create these rolling on winds and intraday trades. that does contribute to the slings that we see intraday which are having more than they probably should. scarlet: what is the primary driver in fixed income returns and how is that evolved in the past year as volatility has picked up steam? guy: we think of ourselves as more intermediate-term
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strategists. we are not looking at the day-to-day so much as the month to month. as we go into the year, the clear bet was essentially on a lower peak fed funds rate. that has been priced in and now what is driving returns is really outside the treasury market, which is to say credit spreads. we have seen high yield an investment grade widen over the last six months. basicyou are seeing distortions in the market and you are seeing markets led by credit spreads. is the treasury market broken? guy: i think with the treasury is measuring is conclusively a fed policy expectation. derivatives some markets have evolved, the connection between treasury markets and derivatives markets, the two have become more closely correlated. it used to be we were looking at more intermediate expectations, but now we only care about how
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they affect fed policy over a three-year scarlet: horizon. scarlet: why so much more turbulence when the u.s. is considered a safe haven? we know where the fed is headed next. it is a matter of when. assetne reason is that managers have accumulated large positions, and that makes trading more concentrated. factor another contributing to the extreme moves. alix: it is like a whole different world. billion in the treasury market. guy: $40 trillion in u.s. bonds. lebas, thank you. alix: would you see a movie , and vw emissions scandals
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how about if it started leonardo dicaprio? ♪
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alix: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. is in theolkswagen headlines again. the company will cut spending by $1.1 billion a year and speed of other cost reductions in the wake of its diesel emissions cheating scandal. alix: believe it or not, these headlines have caught the attention of hollywood. paramount is planning to team up with leonardo dicaprio's production company to create a , which has on a book not yet been written. it is still a book proposal. know, do you want to see
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a movie about somebody trying to fix wires at a computer screen? scarlet: there has been a big trend toward these kinds of pictures in hollywood. mark will be in a movie about the deepwater horizon oil well. also be short" will turned into a movie. has a track record. you have the bp oil spill. definitely some good visuals there. but if you look in the too big to fail movies that went on, i saw one which was not so good. it is not very visual and compelling to do a finance story. scarlet: and it is easy to confuse people as well. you have to make it available
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for mass consumption. on tv, you can speak to a more fractured audience. saylaw string guys will they did not go in depth or they did not capture the drama. everyone else will be saying, cds, what? alix: the question is who will play martin winterkorn. scarlet: leonardo dicaprio may not be starring in the movie. just his production company acquired the rights. alix: they like accents. we will see. scarlet: as long as he does not gain weight. alix: coming up, banks tell us how much money they made last quarter. jpmorgan is up first. ♪
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>> welcome to bloomberg market day. ♪
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scarlet: good afternoon. alix: here is what we're watching at this hour. what is next for the multibillion dollar company and the former wrestler? on where he the ceo is putting his money right now. and comic book superheroes are heading to the big screen and they are getting financial backing from an unlikely source. scarlet: first we want to have to market desk with julie hyman has latest. we are back to a full trading day. the bond markets opened as well. we have more direction that we did yesterday? julie: we sure do not. i am excited to hear about the
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letter agents. negative right now and we were positive, but it has been a tight range throughout the day. i want to take a closer look at the volume. looks at volume by sector of the s&p 500. you can see all of these bars are going downward because volume is down. telecom trading volume is down by 29%. energy down by 28%. discretionary 28% down. even though it was a holiday yesterday in trading volume was down, that trend is continuing today. is he selling the stock market we have seen some buying of treasury. that brings the yield down by about .03%. me, 2.06% is the yield right now. the chinese imports fell four and 11 straight month. that is the longest losing
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streak in six years. that has been pushing rates down as well. take a look at the dollar. it is going to solar direction the slowest since september 2013. it is part of a longer term trend. alix: what about the vix? we were talking about how the curve is actually stephen -- has actually stephen even though we saw selloff. julie: there's expectation of volatility will comeback but it has not yet. it looks like it will snapped a 10 day losing streak today. but this is not like we are having every return to volatility as of yet. it is well below 17. we saw all the volatility that would above 24 a lot stretch of time to or more recently dipping below 20 what's again. -- once again. there's no side of it at the moment.
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alix: one giant massive market policy button. scarlet: everyone is on tenterhooks, with a for something to come out. aix: let's check in on bloomberg first word news this afternoon. mark crumpton has more from artist that. mark: thank you. a new report underscores the issues europe is having with migration. the number of refugees arriving in europe this year is already more than twice the total during all of 2014. more than 700 10,000 refugees arrived through the month of september. vladimir putin is defending his country's offensive in syria and he is criticizing other world leaders in the russian president has been some countries have oatmeal in their heads when it comes to russia's military intervention. president putin says they do not understand that russia wants to help to fight world to terrorism. says his country has reached the peak of its
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economic crisis and the situation there is stabilizing. speaking today in an annual conference organized by btv capital in moscow, the russian leader explained why he thinks his country's return to growth is imminent. we are facing the crisis manifestations throughout the region, but they are more that arethan the ones the key ones. the experts believe that top of the crisis was reached, and the economy on the whole has adjusted to the changed environment. president clinton also commended russia's central bank and government saying that they demonstrated a high level of responsibility at consistent the that consistency in responding to the difficulties. anjamin netanyahu pulled
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emergency meeting of his cabinet today. there were get aggressive steps to stop the violence of this comes as a wave of violence as israelis and palestinians continue to read -- to spread aom palestinian men boarding bus and stabbing and attacking passengers. pentagon officials have started counting -- scouting sites in colorado to hold prisoners instead of guantanamo bay. president obama has pushed to close down the controversial facility, but has faced opposition from congress. the u.s. holds 114 prisoners at going home abate including 54 who have been cleared for release. that is a look at her first word news right now. always find latest news on bloomberg.com. back to you.
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scarlet: thank you. in the markets converting season is finally getting underway. we have six companies reporting today. thanks are going to kick things off as a sector. jpmorgan is the first report with results do after today's clothes. alix: traders are facing the worst. joining us now from st. louis is more, investment strategist at edward jones who also sees big earnings as challenging. the mostoing to be challenging figure their report? >> they already announced that sales growth with liquidity is slower, we are all looking to do they actually see slower load growth which is indicated by broader ventures. we know that the environment of mergers and acquisitions and ipo's in the capital markets business is not doing too well. we think that most investors are going to focus not so much on current earnings but what they see about the outlook.
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what really matters is not this quarter's earnings, but with easy going forward. weather continues to be a difficult environment with the continuation of very low interest rates. always onhe focus is outlook. the indication got on diets last month was not a lot. to make america merrill lynch only 26 companies offered guidance versus the average of 65. that shows lack of visibility. will they be giving lowball forecast? >> they will be giving lowball forecast, we always know that is they are ablese tobeat forecast atlas by 3% 4%. but the one we are concerned about now is not the specific forecast of receivables what companies see about the environment going forward. there is a lot of uncertainty out there.
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companies are able to say we are managing through to actually seeing some signs of improvement either through revenues or cost cuts. that is a positive. in some cases, it is the biggest headwind, the stronger dollar we have seen over the past year. that could be a positive catalyst for earnings forward. scarlet: they are qualifying everything. how do you pull that into your analysis? the besty to make judgment you can based on what they are saying, as putting ranges of estimates to it. that is the whole role of analysis, a broad general commentary at building up from other macro indicators and micro indicators that we have to try to get numbers which weekend is -- which we can use to judge the value of stocks. alix: we are into the end of the that and i can only assume
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they will be rolling off. how do companies hedge and deal with their hedges rolling off? has that go through the estimates to their earnings? >> it has filtered through, and the pessimistic outlook for the things that we were talking about has filtered through right now. earnings with growth is not likely to be graded for them were other sectors. i guess of the dollar, the hedges are rolling off, but many other factors rolling forward, with such dollar strength, that if the fed does continue to talk about raising interest rates in the not-too-distant nature, companies know that that could again push the dollar higher, particularly compared to other developed market currencies like the euro and yen, and men's were is where most of the business comes from. companies are see
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looking to protect the value of their earnings in u.s. dollars. scarlet: thank you for giving us a broad outline of what we should be watching or this earnings season. investment strategist at edward jones. alix: we will be breaking those numbers at 4:01 p.m. ising up, michael mcgrath leaving fortress investment group. does this signal a broader trend in the macro markets? airlines have been taking flight thanks to lower fuel costs. alix: and the best place to put germany right now may not actually be in the market, but some are getting big. ♪
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alix: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. it is time now for our business flash. our first tory, under armour chief operating officer is stepping down. anotherbe pursuing opportunity outside the industry. it will remain with the company until february of next year, following an external search for a new chief financial officer. the company making headlines with its overnight price hike of a cancer drug. that may violate antitrust laws. a wave of democratic hopeful criticism.
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alix: a share buyback program, the company's largest would not related to acquisition since 2007. they also posted profits that the estimates. you can always get more business news at bloomberg.com. scarlet: let's go back to julie individuala check on movers. we fixate on so many big banks and their earnings, but there were other committees that reported today. julie: there's comes of construction equipment, and also a management change, much like under armour. a very interesting situation because it is the third time this year that a company has replaced its ego. -- ceo. the shares were down much more 1%.ier and are down 9/10 of
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we are also looking at smc, another company that cut its earnings. pesticide,aker of looking at the real done to their businesses. preliminary third-quarter results. , thengs growth issues worst performing the s&p today. alix: thank you. fortress investment group confirmed plans to liquidate their investment business. it has been a very difficult time for hedge funds.
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the ceo says a number of firms will have some explaining to do and disappointing returns. the do think that this is peak of the credit cycle, and we suspect it is. it will be another two or three years of losing credit. of explaining lot to do. it does not mean that everybody needs to go out of business, but there will be explaining to clients wife future returns where the more depressing the people would have expected in 2015. scarlet: running us now is a magic professor from columbia business school. we wanted to get your take on this, and you were not that surprised that fortress is shutting down this macro hedge fund with what part of it was expected? >> first of all, the assets under management dropping from 8 million to around 2 billion is one thing. in thelso important style to some degree. not macro management, actually macro hedge fund in the is the
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most bipolar style going forward. -- popular style going forward. at one point there were five people running the fund, then it was just himself and general come along volatility. , i misspoke in a short volatility. it was this for a trade the cost of a fortune. if you go in a position where you are long on currency, as we've seen in sterling, that is a one-way ticket eventually. you are picking up dives in front of the steamroller. that ends fairly badly. an indictment of michael mcgrath versus hedge funds in general? >> and one of them have had a tough time. as the reasonable thing to be expecting a shakeup. when you look at their position, pretty heavy on the fed will raise.
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regency trades, the brazilian recall was going to be turning around. that some point you can only fight the market so far. when you are down 17 points of playdom florida thing, it is a style that is normally consistent with the model -- modern institutional style macro investing. i am not surprised to see him hanging up his hat. scarlet: a quote from him when we protected him. we have had a couple of tough years, this is not conducive to our best results of this environment scarlet: joe? >> investment about that is managers who are trying to take long on volatility. short bursts of surprise followed by the kinds of trades that will bless you back and forth and back and forth. if you get caught up in them, they will hurt you. it is really more about
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discipline, intelligent investing. scarlet: thank you. ahead, the ceo of denver international airport is coming up stay with us. ♪
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scarlet: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. if you industries are as vulnerable to oil and gas prices as the airline business. costs near record lows, airlines are enjoying a turnaround. but other challenges remain. for more let's go live to carol massar and cory johnson. >> thank you so much. from welcome everyone bloomberg television. there was a story i read today about business travelers taking
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for trips. tells how busy it is at the denver airport. busieste the fifth airport in the united states, we had 3 million passengers last year. we are seeing a growth in the number of passengers starting and ending their trip in denver. carol: international and domestic? >> it is. when a huge amount, only 4% of our traffic is international. cory: it is one of the biggest airports in the country. do you want to be the biggest airport? carol: she is shaking her head no. >> our goal is to help drive the economy of our region. we are the number one economic engine in the colorado region. we generate over $26 billion a year into the local economy. can grow, add more flights, and more jobs for that is a good thing for denver and the state.
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carol: how do you expand responsively, when there are 70 questions but the growth going forward? how do you balance with wanting to be bigger and provide more services, but also keeping a balance and keep it in check, and make sure you do not take a too much that it is not manageable? get the most use out of the facility you have. honey get more turns for kate, how did you growing within your footprint? we are at the point where we were last year where we had to add five gates. but you only do that when you really know the demand is there to make sure you do not overbuild your there is no science to it. this is a very volatile industry. you go through a lot of hypotheticals, and you have to do your best guess of what you're going to need. it takes a few years to build those states. if you need them today, are you going to need than three years down the road? it is a gamble. frontiererestingly, servicesy pulled back particularly into denver.
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explain how that has worked and affected the usage of your airport? they have retracted 37%, 38%. no longer have group denver, they're just spoke to spoke. they have been declining. we have seen growth by every other carrier, everybody else is growing in our airport. they are picking up that traffic, and amazingly, despite the decline in frontier, we are flat here today to which i think incredible -- is incredibly positive. looks tour mayor has make an air metropolis. warehouses, manufactures, business parks centered around airports. but there has been some pushback commend you to get some changes in order to make that happen. will it go forward? >> we have come to an agreement with our neighbors that it has to be done holiday by the voters on november 3. we feel very positive that it voters approved by the
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in the county. it will allow the businesses who want to be on airports to be in our airport. they could not in the past. there are so many businesses that are globally focused, that some of them have cargo the trouble, but there are people who want their clients to fly in, their employees fly back and forth. they want to be on an airport for that access. if you look at other airports around the world, free credit being a green example, where they had this huge block were all of the accountants in report has moved to the airport because you fly so much. we are not we did build everything, we're just opening land of those who want to come and develop buildings on our property. cory: do you find you are competitive with amenities and services as airplane terminals get better and better across the airports of the world? >> absolutely. get enough. we have a lot of projects in place. but our goal is to up our game.
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we are constantly ranked as one of the most positive customer experiences in north america. carol: thank you so much for stopping by. >> a delight to be here. carol: chief executive officer of the denver international airport. back to you. scarlet: are takes to carol massar and cory johnson. capitals weighs in on what is wrong with the global economy and why now is the time the fed chair should raise rates. ♪
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welcome back to the bloomberg market day. scarlet: let's start with the first word news is afternoon. we check in with mark crumpton. court hasral appeals reinstated a lawsuit that challenge the new york city police department surveillance of was little groups in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. the court reversed the judge's decision last year to do business the case after finding the muslim plaintiffs raised enough allegations of equal protection violations. pd's actions the ny friday\/\ to blanket suspicion of japanese-americans during world war ii. press reports about 400 protesters were met by police in riot gear in turkey today. the riots have corrupted since the bombing. some have turned into antigovernment demonstrations
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turkey holds parliamentary elections in three weeks. the taliban are officially pulling out of conduce in northern afghanistan. the insurgent group claims that its fighters are retreating to avoid further civilian casualties. it briefly fell under taliban control late last month, until an offensive by u.s. and afghan forces drove them out. the acting governor of the province's eyes shops and markets have reopened and that life is returning to normal. the new report says this e-mail server that hillary clinton used as secretary of date with vulnerable to hackers. the associated press says he is remote access software that allow direct internet connections. prompteds have warnings from the federal government and tech companies. the fbi is looking into whether classified messages were exchanged on her system. the super pac pushing for a biden presidential run is expected to air a new ad before tonight's debate. it will spend $250,000 to run
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the spot calls never quit. it pulled its initial, which touched on the car accident that killed his wife and child back in 1972. front runner heller versus the field limit debate gets underway in las vegas. for other contenders will be on the stage. o'malley,ders, martin jim webb, and lincoln chafee. postedbate will be by cnn. be sure to tune into a one hour special of all due respect. that starts at 5:00 p.m. new york time. that is our first word news right now. he would always find the latest news on bloomberg.com. back to you. alix: thank you.
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there was plenty of drama and the economy these days. anything from politics to monetary policy are making investors feel insert. scarlet: stephanie ruhle and david weston sat down with real estate investors. they explained the view of what is wrong with the global economy. >> you have this experiment around the world, which really looks like everyone knows this is toxic review should all be able to do what is happening. there is no evident repercussions, but when japan is tonting money with 250% debt udp, and they keep making more of this paper, you should not be able to do this. they're doing it all over the world. stephanie: does that mean that market volatility is here to stay? >> the u.s. is the better rock, we are the bright spot. fundamentals are pretty good for the property markets with the energy space is pretty good. business,big energy
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and we can still make money in the gas business. the cost of production is still low. is really good momentum, but it is slowing in the u.s. economy. is weakening.nomy there been no structural reforms. you are pushing gas into and over filled tank. stephanie: what does that mean for janet yellen? >> needs to raise rates. return the markets to normalcy where people feel like the fed is not so involved in manipulating the domestic economy. it really does not matter. i think that 25 or 50 basis points, she should raise rates, not be penalized anymore. try to slowly deflated massive bubbled of the fed has created an capital flows resume. the dollar may or may not strengthen very much on the kind of race. the one and done is probably ok.
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one of the problems is the economy as low as the market is really week about a month ago. the one and done is probably ok. people worry what else can the fed do? , the economy rates is getting tight in certain places. two tight. if we cannot find people to serve lunch in our hotels and restaurants in new york city, we cannot fight construction workers to build houses, we have to get back to normalcy. >> about in terms of capital markets? difficulty in terms of liquidity and capital markets? >> with a completely different situation with this lack of liquidity in the markets. falling stock market, dark pools doing their trading. there is no banks making market securities the way they were. there's no dealer inventory. the moves down feel volatile and racket. -- ragged. it is very comfortable. it is very uncomfortable space. we're standing in quicksand. it feels funny, the ground does
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not feel floor. -- firm. stephanie: uncomfortable for whom? >> stocks you hit all at once. every thing goes down because of a pushed a button and every mortgage stock goes down, every. both down, every textile and everything. there is no differentiation between the companies, because the etf are dominating trading. stephanie: are you training -- changing or two? you said he was like to be hedge fund manager a year ago. that said they needed to put their own skin in the game. i travel the world for my business. they are very high quality of life in our collection. stephanie: does it surprise you would you see them shut down their macro fund? >> this has been a tough market. the smart you are, the worst you're doing.
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it is very difficult market. >> does that apply to you? >> i hope not. [laughter] real estate is far less volatile. we move in ways. the stock market goes on a dime and you do not know why oftentimes. real estate does not do that. the stock market real estate, the property markets that we invested to your try to catch waves. the waves are good in the u.s.. the property sector, iowa said that the stock market is my favorite sector because there is liquidity. real estate is really not that liquid. the real estate market is the best major market to invest in right now. alix: that was the ceo of star wars capital. part of that is because of the volatility everywhere else that investors over see. alix: i was talking to the head of global infrastructure investment and he was basically
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saying infrastructure is the new safe haven because you do not want to earn 2% of treasury yields. you just cannot pull your money out anytime soon because of the volatility elsewhere. attacks 15% tumble maybe just the beginning. industries bust is becoming political. plus the thunder agents are making their hollywood debut and they're getting from a very unlikely backer. scarlet: and we will take a look at twitter's newly announced global.com -- job cuts. ♪
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scarlet: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. it is time for business/. fortress investment group confirming plans to liquidate the investment firm held by michael mcgrath. microstrategy 2000 2000 into a business with more than $8 million in assets at its peak of 2007. he plans to return all caps on to investors by the end of this year. alix: ubs will pay 19 $.5 settle claims. -- trace ledrames to client losses. scarlet: and a record-breaking deal for the beer industry. creating asch inbev
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company will cover one part of the world beer sales. -- one third of the world beer sales. go to our markets desk were julie hyman has the latest and volume is just so pathetic. average.low its 10 day julie: we did have some macro news coming out. there's a collective shrug over at. one of those pieces of news was negative for the market. even now, knocked out much across the board. that is the data on chinese imports falling for the 11th straight month, and that the locus losing streak we have seen in six years. just to give you an idea how bad it has in. everything is going down. decline looking like
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a decline of more 17% in those imports. given all the concerns about the chinese economy and what its weakness means for global growth is somewhat surprising that we are not see much of a reaction. even if you look at this chinese etf's. you can see as hr, it is unchanged. 1%,it is downright at the but still not taking that big of a hit. it is also interesting thing reaction we are seeing in the commodities market. actually is rebounding. this despite competing news flow on oil. the international agencies saying the global glut will continue next year. i know you have been watching oil prices, as you tend to do. it is interesting that oil has been resilient today in the face
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of what has not been very positive news recently. downgradedhe iaea its demand forecast to 1.2%. you a look at china and expectation is actually import more going forward. you have lower prices and teapot refineries. they were not that grave, but they will pick up. >> optimism and hope springs eternal. alix: thank you so much. scarlet: as much as 15% was wide off the biotech index that followed hillary clinton's tweet. alix: they are bracing themselves for followed over the democratic debate taking place tonight. allhree different drugs, treating different diseases, and all made by different companies. but there is one thing they have
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in common. years, theirhree prices have rocketed dramatically. they are not the only ones. it has been driven by companies putting new price tax on all drugs. a sort of hikes to get attention, not the least from the u.s. politicians. drugmakers are now seeing their own valleys call as the term price controls brings out around washington. manufacturer gilead fell 5% in a day, and their overnight fromion to rise the price $13.50 to $750 has prompt us tweet. it knocked 11% off the nasdaq biotech index in the five days followed.
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scarlet: joining us now is our reporter from bloomberg intelligence. is this backlash unreasonable? unjustified? >> it depends on who you're talking about. if it is between the companies and others implicated community maybe it is warranted because they are taking a monopoly of the market and bumping up the price. -- it mayacid to tell not sit too well with politicians of the general population. it seems like the whole sector is being burned at the stake as a result of this. the case, bute there's a lot that goes beyond the seas to just try - -- to address the price. the: they were warned by
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attorney general that it may violate antitrust laws. is this becoming a bigger deal? >> think this might be more political grandstanding and rattling cages right now. yet to be seen, but the bigger picture is that the larger sectors have been hit quite hard by this because in the temple political pressure, even though it does not necessarily mean it is going to materialize into something, and is a difference for investors. scarlet: gilead was looked at by congress in the first quarter. >> investments have drawn in lots of different people. sixsectors outperformed s&p consistently over the last five and six years.
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you have a lot of retail investigators -- investors coming into the space and not knowing mechanics of each individual company at knowing what they are investing in. when you're investing in biotech, and a lot of times you want to be in there for the longer game and you know the longer story is. they may shake the nerves some people and put them out of the word work. alix: it seems like we've seen such a decline in prices, does that spur m&a because you can get it on the cheap, or now the seller is going to say i'm going to sell to you right now, we are to come back to their value? >> it is always an m&a hotbed. it is the research engine for larger pharma and families out there. this might spike a surgeon m&a. is another way. instead of buying the whole
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company they say we are going to pay you in a month the and pay sales of mousey is the cannot of this asset. it is a risk-adjusted way for them to go in and do a deal. volume has been up again this quarter. alix: energy companies are doing something relatively similar where they put up cash in the revenue from the companies they are working with. you do not want to commit, put up a lot of cash, and then wait and see. scarlet: that was the onus back on the biotech company to look for the next big drug. >> is always been on the next biotech company and pharma company. through a very interesting phase of r&d. we are getting a lot of very cold drugs coming out. there are failures along the way, but it is expected. gene therapy, oncology coming down the pipeline and coming to the markets. it is an exciting time. alix: and we will hear about reprising tonight in the presidential debate. how much money do companies make off of drug pricing?
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what actually filters down to the bottom line? is the million-dollar question, or the value dollar question, or trillion dollar question. we do not know. the price increases that we have is purely the list price that we see. there's a lot of discounts and rebates that go behind the scenes to the different pairs. a nice amount of money, in terms of rebates. the private health insurance, they have their own deal set up. there is a lot of gray area here that take into account. scarlet: a black box. thank you for joining us. coming up and the bloomberg market day, another american superhero comic is coming to the big screen. but funding from china's latest movie studio is behind it. more on this global entertainment breakthrough next. ♪
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scarlet: chime hit is jumping on the superhero been lacking --ause the the time bandwagon because for the first time they will bring a comic book to the screen. the ultimate goal is to bring able to platform printed franchise -- rated franchise. -- to bring a multiplatform rated franchise. i love your supercool time. e. >> i am the ultimate comic book nerd. get chinado you convinced in this? >> the times are changing. we are a global village. if we do not reach out, and join
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together over a common bond we really have in our pop culture, then we are missing an opportunity in a world is very polarized. we came together and felt that the world does not have to be exposed only to american superheroes. but we create a team of international superheroespolari. . superheroes from every country, every culture. they come together in the face of a greater threat and come together as a family of man. scarlet: you just wrote the tagline for the movie. [laughter] >> i think is really important and we have this opportunity. scarlet: you say your company and the brothers are full partners of the table. what does that mean? isn't enough for an american audience, chinese audience? a world audience. what to make movies and tv that are culturally sensitive to china, authentic to china, but that can play everywhere. scarlet: what does that mean? give us an example of culturally
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sensitive to china but can play everywhere. in with not want to go a western concept of what chinese culture or history or mythology is. let them come to the table with us and let's not treat them as an atm machine or if they as a full partner. alix: something we've been seeing as films going to filming in asia and getting a bang for their buck. that made nocene sense in asia that was on the plot. but it was in there. and the same thing the last transformers movie. how do you envision your thunder series being different? scarlet: polar opposite. >> we do not go in there and do with the studios have done, have chinese extras and have a star that has four winds. we want to have them at the method table is full partners creatively and not in terms of business and finance. if we do that, and we have spent the last two years in beijing and shanghai to develop printers
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and develop trust before we ever set out to make a deal. scarlet: united nations is also a partner. how did that happen? >> thunder agents. it stands for the hire united nations defense enforcement reserve. it is a secret force of agents run that united nations. it was a perfect timing tie-in. it houses to do a perfect international team. alix: amazing. thank you and good luck. i will be watching for this. nextet: coming up in the hour, we won't be having much more coverage, especially on the debate that is coming up tonight. hillary clinton versus bernie sanders and three other guys. ♪ [inaudible] [applause] [laughter]
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>> it is 2:00 a.m. in hong kong. welcome to the bloomberg market day. ♪
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david: good afternoon and here is what we're watching this hour. improveest u.s. banks earnings this morning. lenders baseiew as for a possible income hike. face-off in las vegas for the first debate. and shares of twitter are hired today -- higher today after jack dorsey announces an 8% cut. but first, let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. julie: we see stocks accelerate declines. things are looking red across the board, particularly for the s&p 500 and the nasdaq here -- thas

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