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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  October 16, 2015 1:00am-3:01am EDT

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anna: boosting stocks, asian equities extend the rally that started m more than $4 trilliono global stocks of this month. deadlock, european sales aid proves aey, as sticking point. netflix?he sunshine on numbers are due and 50 minutes, and we will speak to the ceo later this morning. welcome to the program. live from london, i am anna edwards. equities,ap on global
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the asian session turning out to be a positive one. really picking up from where he left off in the united states. a number of drivers in there, let us focus on them. u.s. stocks advance for the first time in three days, as bank shares rebounded after we had numbers out of citigroup. they came in and help move the stocks higher. we also have this increasing sense that the fed is possibly not going to raise rates in 2015. aspects of that stand at 30%. julie hyman sends us this report. julie: u.s. stocks rebounded after two days, and they gained strength and really quite a bit of strength as the recession went on. a couple of things in the game, we had better than estimated economic data in the morning jobless claims and prices coming in better than forecast. also, strength of earnings have been driving things higher. on that from, we saw financials performing well.
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citigroup came out and beat estimates that beat estimates, we have seen that trending. we sought trading revenues lag, that appears to cut trading environment. jpmorgan rebounding from yesterday's losses. also some notable tech movers, apple gaining positive coverage over barclays. amazon rising to a record close. and facebook gaining as analysts theirey are positive on transition to mobile. it was not all positive in technology. netflix shares fell sharply after the companies u.s. subscriber growth trailed estimates. they blamed it on a consumer transition to chip cards. saying they interrupted service for some of the customers. it was also not a great day for the years largest ipo. raised $2.6tion
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billion in its initial public offering, price below its initial range of $16. they ended up falling by 1.5% on their first day. that is what happened stateside in equity markets. let's bring you up to speed on what is happening in the asian market session. yvonne man is standing by in hong kong. she has details. morning, we want to end the week on a green know. we are seeing the fourth straight friday of gains across the asian equities. this is the longest weekly winning streak since april. we are taking a look at things, the biggest picture now on the map here, the shanghai composite coming back from the lunch break up one third of a percent. up about 1% in tokyo right now, the hang seng up about two thirds of a percent. if you add thursday, we are seeing at least $250 billion in market cap.
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up so$110 billion coming the secondn rise for day. and looks like the manic selling we saw in september, it is dying down a. volatility as come down. i do want to talk about the hang seng index, they were the best returns here in the world really in this week. the shanghai composite surged 5% since last friday, it is the biggest such event in two months. the hong kong here, we have seen 23,000 levels again, the last time we saw this was back in august. 23,000 right now, there is speculation the government will reform the state owned enterprises. yesterday, we mentioned the telecom. now we have seen price reforms in utilities. we are seeing this rebound in the last week, and we continue to see them lure back investors.
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could be a good time to jump back in the party. above the 30 day average. i want to talk about movers here, we talked about the casino yesterday not having a very bullish day. down by 3.9% right now. after the revenue, we got those overnight, macau revenue shrunk to a third. blasted china, saying officials have not told get how much tables it will come the march opening. he says and makes the planning, training, hiring very confusing. pretty candid call. anna: thank you very much, joining us from hong kong. european leaders have concluded a summit in brussels, where managing migration was of course top of the agenda. a joint action plan with turkey is on the table, but it is proving to be a little divisive. hans nichols has it at the
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summit and joins us now from brussels. hans, a lot of conversation on how much turkey can be involved in the planning of migration. what progress has been made? hans: they have a draft document. it was a late night here, but it was an inconclusive night. here is what we have, potential 3 billion euros going from the european union in some sort of joint fund to turkey to help them really stem refugee crisis from the country from which they are leaving. now there is quite a bit of division, angela merkel seems to be confused. countriesn european are not playing along, said she wants to get to the bottom of this. and when jean-claude spoke, he said there would be another round that would be optimistic. refugees to stay in turkey, that is the first point. the second point is preventing refugees and migrants from
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traveling in turkey to the european union. i know that is a debate in the press and elsewhere. about the financial amount, we are ready to bloo be part of the discussions in the next few days under the leadership, i guess. hans: there is clearly division on the european side. turkey is driving a hard bargain. they want to have some visa restrictions loosened. they want make it easier for citizens to come to the eu. they also want a new timetable for potentially joining the eu. they are pressing ahead. on another subject, banking unions -- not much progress. it seems like they are walking back their goals and timelines for the union. unger is forging ahead on that. one positive note, there does seem to be agreement on beefing up the border securities on the
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periphery and have more guards helping with national government, making sure the refugees do not come in unchecked. anna: a fairly eclectic summit. a wide range of topics, migrations, unions, the subject of brexit. prime minister david cameron was supposed to reignite conversation. what have we learned? hans: he plans to be more formal in a couple of weeks, sometime in november. this is really the first part of the summer, lots of back and forth. heading into the summit, here is how mr. cameron laid out his agenda. the bill for our referendum is now in the house of lords. the pace will now quicken, and again setting out vital areas where we need change, laying down what those changes will be at the start of november. so we quicken the pace and the negotiations in the run-up to the december counsel.
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i'm confident we can get a good deal for britain, we can get those things that need to be fixed. i'm confident it is well underway. hans: this is a lot like our conversation on what story out of cover in the morning. there are negotiations about the negotiations. it seems like mr. cameron is slow walking this. he also want to keep it under wraps. that letter he pledged to send, it is unclear whether or not it will be made public. my take on that is very hard, hard to keep it leaking, especially when you have 20 a delegation. some are not all that sympathetic to him. tricky to work out what people think when there is a poker hand to play. hans nichols joining us. this is the week we saw the rate hike debate between committee members go public. the comments tilted toward the
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2016 left off, as a run of data and resales and prices disappointed. but the federal reserve bank of said he the chairman favored a high, if the economy continues to perform. president signed a more exclusive note in 2015. >> based upon my outlook, and the risk of it, i believe the economy can handle it. that is appropriate for monetary policy to take a step back for r zero interest rate. anna: less than 30% for the rate rise based on pricing and futures. down from about 60% a month ago. she weighed in on the communication strategy, and the reason behind this week's conflicting messages from the board members. >> what we try to do is be as clear as we can about the rationale behind our decision.
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the medications are a journey that we have been on for a long time to be more transparent. economy, different people have different views. you might hear people express different views, that is really reflective of what the committee decision making it. as we go to the trading day, a lot of data and reports coming out of the u.s. today. we will have plenty of european earnings for you. day,ater on in the trading we will have general electric numbers coming through. u.s. industrial production and consumer confidence coming up. anybody still looking for data for the puzzle to put together, to work out what october and indeed december could look like for inflation rates, something to watch out for. a busy day for european earnings as well. remye reporting, and adding some french flavor. and we get european car sales.
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after the volkswagen scandal broke, that will be coming up in the next two hours of the program. stay with us. but first, will it be a sweet third quarter for nestle? or will they be feeling the crunch of the slowdown in china? we bring you their results, coming up next? ♪
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anna: welcome back. here are the stories you know this morning. asian stocks are up for a second day, extending a rally that added or $.1 trillion the global stocks this month. the pacific index is heading for his longest streak of weekly gains since april. that is a run of weaker than estimated reports, and china is on the federal reserve raising interest rates. european leaders have failed to reach a final agreement on recruiting turkey to help stem the flow of refugees from the middle east. german chancellor angela merkel told a news conference that they
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had to contain the flow of migrants and refugees. she also said the figure of 3 billion euros in aid for turkey was discussed. she has yet to earn full support from the state. mattel missed estimates, revenues fell 11% -- just under $1.8 billion. sales of its iconic barbie doll continue to decline. the turnaround plan has focused on reviving its largest brand. now we are just getting numbers coming through from nestle. the food giant, we have details. we are looking for something pretty decent. what have we got? >> disappointing results for the world's biggest food maker. if we look at nestle organic sales growth, it is coming at 4.2%. the estimate was 4.7%. that is a myth. but importantly, as well, the
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four-year organic growth -- what they are forecasting -- they are now saying 4.5%. that in august, they were expecting closer to 5%. disappointing results here, we have to see when more of the numbers come out. we get more and allison this was down to the slowdown in emerging markets. the company has been hit i a stronger swiss franc. betternilever had result, they are benefiting him a weaker euro. it is a drag from emerging markets, the stronger franc. there also waiting for an update for the u.s. disappointing results, back to you. remember, later during programming this morning, we'll be talking to the ceo of nestle. talking about those results, what led to that number coming in low estimates in terms of the sales growth. how do they see the rest of the year? how to the weather help them?
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we will talk to him later on bloomberg about all that. let us change gears a bit and talk about cars. we will see how volkswagen's diesel scandal goes down when numbers are released in about 40 minutes time. joining us for more, a consultant at frost and sutherland. natalie, they say this is the first time we see the european car numbers, and the impact of the scandal. will we see the full impact in the september numbers? thelie: we have seen numbers a couple of days ago, and to be honest, i think that hasn't happened yet. the real impact we will see the starting in november and december, it is still too early to side. september is one of the best months for carmakers all across the world. anna: it is a good month, if there is such a thing to have a
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good month for a crisis, it is generally a solid. period for trade. is it to do with the lead time, people had to place their orders months ago? addition, most people have been holding out, waiting to see how big the crisis is going to be. for the september month, we are not going to see that much happening. anna: on the secondhand used-car market, are we not seeing an impact? natalie: it has not been directly accredited to the scandal yet. anna: that is interesting. what about the scale of the recall? the german government stepped in to tell volkswagen that he to recall a certain number of cars, rather than voluntary activity. how big will this be?
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we know that in germany, but not quite the rest of the world? are 1.2 u.k. numbers million. for germany, it is different. the german government forced everyone to come in and get their cars fixed. volkswagen said some of the cars with lower engines can be fixed with a software bug. see thestill yet to 300,000 cars in italy. anna: how do those numbers compare to previous ones in the japanese manufacturers or others? natalie: quite substantial, for sure. at the end of the day, some of the other recalls, and has not been that significant. anna: what about the future of diesel, the european technology? it is something that they have put a lot of money into, a lot of bets on. how doe diesel come out? natalie: people will look for alternatives. if you look at the numbers for
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september, petrocars are rising. in general, most people went to petrol. i think toyota just yesterday launched a car that runs on hydraulic fuels. we will see. anna: that takes us to the conversation about the beneficiaries and how quickly europe regroups, diesel is not going to be such a favored technology. this is all about electric and hybrid cars? . who is well-placed? teslae: toyota coming up, as well. they are launching a new model in a few years time. angle, theerent government as well, i think france recently said there will be no tax breaks on diesel. it will perspective making petrol more affordable. anna: will we see a resurgence
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in petrol? or hybrids? natalie: it will be twofold. in the meantime, people will tend to more petrol. it is still a known option, where the hybrids. will slowly come. anna: i have a chart here showing the european car stocks, this is a five-year chart. we get a long-term story. saw the pickup as result of optimism around china and exported. things are starting to fall away in the first half of the year, we can see here how the sector, as a whole, they have bounced back from vw. some of the car companies were not affected that much. they kind of shrugged this off. natalie: i wouldn't call it shrugging off. autumn is a good month for our manufacturers.
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and china was one of the leading markets where most of the manufacturers really improved the numbers as well. anna: who are the carmakers that are going to deal well. we get the numbers at 7:00. china,he downturn in people have talked about the german car companies, maybe it is a european company. what is your take? natalie: going back to china, i think the suv segment is really strong for them. whoever has them on their platform is really good. anna: natalie, thank you for joining us. us withsauber joining analysis. numbers around 7:00, around 35 minutes time. let's go to nestle numbers, they missed estimates and cut the sales forecast by half a percentage point. we have the details.
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>> this was a pretty big miss this morning, nine-month organic sales growth came at 4.2% versus estimates of 4.7%. the key thing as well, nestle cut its 2015 organic sales growth. in august, they were saying it was about 5%. they cut that back to 4.5%. i have the statement here in front of me, the nest the ceo said they were impacted by exceptional events. india, theydles in continued solid performance in europe, though. and in north america, but a slower sales recovery in china. back to you. anna: copper prices are near bottoming, according to the head of chile's richest family. the only way is up. the london metal exchange week close, and the china commodity
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was downbeat. here is what people in the industry have been telling bloomberg. using marketplace is copper as a proxy. they can be a very dangerous game in the medium and long-term. at some stage, we expect the copper market to move into liquidity. you do not want a short position when it is moving. >> if you do a very simple analysis of the price, it is very obvious that copper prices, but also a lot of varieties, have become more volatile. it is very clear that they have acquired a life of their own. i would say it is away from from the mental. >> today, if you look at the ifces, for obvious reasons, you look at where the prices are compared to the cost curve, there is something that does not match up. >> you even look at the downside
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in copper and iron ore. we are sitting up there in that $5,200 a ton range. we see far more risk long-term. >> the picture is positive, china is still consuming huge commodities that the world produces. china cannot the be stopped. forhe fundamental demands copper are still there in the long-term. so we believe that we will still be in business in china for a long time. >> industries like copper and iron ore have been very good businesses for the mining companies. >> there is no doubting we see the volatility. but by large, equities tend to move on to commodities. it is the choice of asset within the commodity class which really determines the ability of these companies to generate cash for shareholders. wise words, no doubt, on
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the commodity sector. weeking up london metals later. we get earnings from the world's second-biggest leader. and how they are coping with the market slowdown. ♪
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back, 6:30 in london. here are the stories you need to know this morning. asian stocks are up for a second day, extending a rally that added $4.1 trillion global stocks this month. the asia-pacific index is heading for his longest streak of weekly gains since april. that is after a run of weaker than estimated reports from europe the u.s., and china. federal reserve are raising interest rates is your. european leaders have failed to reach a final agreement on recruiting turkey to help stem the flow of refugees from the middle east. merkelchancellor angela told the eu they had a draft
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accord on containing the flow of migrants and rickety. she said the figure at 3 billion euros in aid, saying it was discussed, but has yet to earn full support from member states. nestle is reporting missed estimates. the world's largest food company was hurt by a recall of noodles and the chinese market. numbersst getting coming through from a couple of french businesses. let us go to the details. them for have some of you, we are looking at earnings in line here -- third-quarter sales at 21.5 billion euros. that is in line with the estimate. if we look at spain, that is performing better than expected. sales rise 4.6%. the estimate was 3.5%. in third quarter had come line as well.
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we have strong earnings last time for carrefour. brazil has been doing well, the home market, too. i am still waiting for those remy numbers. i can tell you that like a lot of electric company's, they have been facing particularly challenging conditions in china, where of course there's been a crackdown on gifting. i will come back with remy numbers later. numbers justemy coming through. confirming the guidance on second quarter sales coming in at $277 million. that is just a touch ahead of the estimate. q2 organic sales fell 4%. the estimate was a drop of 2%. that looks to be better than analysts expected. dropping less than expected, china improving. that is a message from remy.
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let us move on and talk about the mining sector. copper prices are near their bottom. let us talk about some of the voices we heard during london metals week. we had many things coming through, the impact of the chinese slowdown. that is but one of them, let us get some assessment of what people have been telling bloomberg about the sector. >> there is obviously a marketplace which is using copper as a proxy for the chinese economy, and taking a position. it can be a very dangerous game in the medium and long-term it at some stage, we expect the copper market to move to a deficit. you do not want a short edition when it is moving to a deficit position. >> if you do a very simple econometric analysis of the price, it is very obvious that copper prices, but also a whole variety and family of commodities, have become very volatile.
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it is clear they have acquired a life of their own. i would say away from the fundamentals. >> today, if you look at where the prices -- for obvious reasons -- it is clear that the cost curve has something that does not stack up. >> need to look at the downsize risk in copper and iron ore versus oil. for copper we are sitting at $5,200 a ton range, definitely above cost. >> long-term, the picture is positive. huge is still consuming quantities of most of the commodities the world produces. it is not that china suddenly stopped. its growth has slowed. >> the fundamental demand for copper is still there in the long-term. so we believe that we will still be in business in china for a long time. continue our conversation about commodities. we are joined by peter r
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osenstreich. welcome, good to see you peter. let's talk about the commodity week we have seen in london. it is about the marathon talk tell parties? what have we learned? miners who have the say things are back, but they are not so bad. i completely disagree with the ability on where they are. could copper false immediately more easy? theyost curve shows you can fall 30% before you would see significant cuts. the issues for them is this, they do not believe china is slowing down. if you can see it in their actions, in 2007, their capital expenditures were 37 billion. even though they cut them from the peak in 2010, in 2016, they are still going to be 52 billion.
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if they really believed that china is in serious trouble, they would probably cut by 50% immediately. anna: leading some of the fantastic reporting around this week's event, a number of executives have been enjoying popular culture references, illustrating how bad they are -- using country music lyrics, quoting gandhi, line from gangster films like the godfather. you get the sense they are really trying to contact her life what is a really tough time in the sector. but they're not trying to act on them. kenneth: they're cutting staff. they are cutting caps. but it is not a very severe drop relative to history. and whenever you see prices drop by more than 20%, this industry in the 80's and 90's would cut back to 90%. this time over a five-year. period, they really were serious about it, they would change their thinking. but they cannot and they will not.
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now they are starting to blame the traders, the market for their woes. they never congratulated it on the way up. but now they're blaming it, that is a dangerous signal. anna: peter, where are you? it seems so integral to low-inflation. it is everywhere. peter: but the idea that commodity prices are a canary in a coal mine, it is very much apropos here. is really going to be reflective of the broader global demand in china? it is very important that people pay attention. i would say there has been dislocation in the market. and what i would ask ken, his thoughts on glencore? having a company so vertically integrated and the dislocation releasing the mining portion, what happened to the downstream, the taper side? is it a disconnect? tradingeeing strange
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and commodities on the paper side. i want to know your ideas of what we can sort of weed through, what is real and what is market dislocation? demandyou have chinese and significant drop in prices that hurt the rate. it hurt the commodity trading firms. i am giving a speech next week in china, and all they wanted to talk about is what is going on globally. they have a group in singapore the drop 70%, lots of worry there they are dumping metals on the market. you have glencore out there trying to reduce debt, or asking are they starting to sell assets? companiesve a lot trading in the private space, and the biggest problem for that is that regulators have an unnecessary byproduct coming on with dodd-frank. they forced all the big banks out of the commodity trading business and to all of these private firms.
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and the problem is that we have significant stress, and there are not significant big banks to back them up. what you have now are problems in terms of global commodities, what by a large the regulators are saying they are a small part, not a housing crisis etc. let these guys figure it out, and that will cause dislocation in the market. anna: we have the same thing in fixed in cars, treasuries and regulatory trading's. change is the maker of the market, and we are facing liquidity concern. perhaps back to the mining market, didn't reveal anything promising to you/ likeeverybody seems to zinc. you have glencore cutting metrics apply, you do have a very large in australia -- another half a million tons that is closing. c was the one bright spot out there. there was a huge fight over
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nickel. last year, over half of the participants at the conference said nickel was the best metal for 2050. they were 100% wrong, it was the worst for 2015. anna: what did we learn th ere? [laughter] peter: understanding china has been difficult. there is confusion regarding demand, no one is getting it right. said it, no one can understand china. anna: we started with your speech about how not everything is what it seems in the chinese demand. could the chinese real demand for metals be weaker? that everybody thinks the person who stands up and says the emperor has no close. demand models are
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100% wrong, a lot of the metal going into china has been your financial. beingn on the yua convertible, weaver people talking about it. i'm talking to people in china that it does not exist at all. a lot of confusion, but at the very least we started the conversation -- which is really what we do a bloomberg intelligence. start conversations. anna: peter, where you see the commodity currencies -- that being your wheelhouse? where do you see them? china,needs to start in and what is happening there. we have seen a relative bottom, there has been much maligned sort of talk about the soft demand. we are seeing bright spot. nursing imports in certain commodities, like copper and soybeans and oil, it is improving. we are seeing auto exports increased.
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we think the engine of regional growth and global growth for that matter in china, it is starting to improve. we think the commodity currency should be a relatively big step forward. and add some stability from places where it would be extremely fragile. ken thank you very much for coming to wrap up the week. find out what china is just so excited about next week's state visit. some ceremony around that visit. no doubt about that. stay with us on "co untdown." ♪
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a welcome backn,na: time in london is 6:45. here are the stories you need to know this morning. asian stocks are up for a second day, extending a rally that added $4.1 trillion global stocks this month.
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the asia-pacific index is heading for his longest streak of weekly gains since april. that is after a run of weaker than estimated reports from europe, the u.s. and china. ,and the federal reserve raising interest rates is your. after nine months of revenue growth, the world's largest food company was hurt by a recall of hurt by the chinese market. the resale or had a strong collection point for online orders. let us which years and talk about politics. swiss voters will go to the polls this sunday in a parliamentary election dominated by immigration and asylum concerns. the fiscally conservative swiss people's already remain the biggest block in parliament, but
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could lead to an eventual shakeup of the multiparty government. let us speak to our swiss economy reporter. good morning to you. what is set to happen on sunday and what are voters most concerned about, catherine? catherine: most important is immigration, there has been a lot of talk from the eu over the last decade. and of course in germany, there have been a host of people hoping for asylum. are topnk those issues of the agenda for voters, even more so than the economy after the swiss franc surged against the euro earlier this year. and nearly torpedoed the economy into a recession. so, yeah, that is most important. us of how thisd all leads into the process of forming a government, how it works?
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catherine: the multiparty government, seven members, they will be elected in a secret december 9.e cyme the finance minister is perhaps will remainse role in question, she is from a small party. she is declining even further, and so other parties may try to get her seat. anna: catherine, thank you for joining us. joining us live there. let's get back to our guest host, head of market strategy, give us your thoughts on the impending election. >> the first thing is to realize that the swiss are very conservative, they love the democratic system. there were not be any splashy headlines, it will be a subtle shift from the left to the right. and i think that is a big piece
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here. the question is who will dominate this right move? party whichthe ftp is pro-business and liberal, which should be quite good for the swiss franc. and we also have on the other more extreme right, the anti-immigration populace of svp. if they gain the upper hand in moving this was government to the right, that it will probably be slightly negative as a force that anti-immigration bill forward in order for the government to exactly enact the law. and it will create a rift between switzerland and the eu. na: we've seen a number of votes on things related to immigration already. it is already a contentious issue, before the migration crisis. >> as catherine said very clearly, immigration is topping the bill above the economy -- even though the swiss economy is not particularly doing well.
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as is really a primary issue in the minds of swiss voters. it is taking front and center, and the question is how much power can the party gain? and then push the agenda forward. the past referendum last year, they have not the framework together and the details. and i think what this vote will do, if the svp will fast-track the anti-immigration bill. anna: let's talk about the swiss economy. you say migration is front and center in the election. but of course we saw the story this year the fact that the swiss central bank stopped away and stepped against the euro. people predicted this would result in doom for the swiss exports. and we still see the currency is strong. >> it was not that nuclear bomb that many were predicting. but it has be separated the economy significantly. both the growth story, and looks
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fragile, and the inflation story looks dire at this point. it is taking effect. i think the biggest thing that happened recently is the rise of the euro swiss and that is being celebrated in the swiss national is off theresssure bank. and they will remain vigilant. anna: diligently vigilant. [laughter] peter: there is a lot of speculation that they will move forward with additional easing. but the reaction, what is it from the ecb? what the reaction will be and when they would do it? they have to protect the swiss francs because they are seeing bright spots, and if the swiss franc become significant we stronger now, that would derail -- anna: peter stays with us. let's bring in tim coulter from
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our web team. before i do that, donald trump ifd that is what he would do you was elected into the oval office. the controversial businessman was seeking the nomination has given his frank view on china to stephanie ruhle. stephanie: you are in the oval office, it is your first day, first week. who are the first four global leaders you are calling on? donald trump: i would have them call me. excuse me, iay -- know more about diplomacy than anyone else. china is ripping us. and they don't even like us. business week magazine had an article where i am very critical of china, i have a lot of friends of china. they cannot believe they get away with what they do. the 10 things the chinese people most want, one of them is
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anything trump. i cannot believe it. and they know my attitude. people in china, people in mexico, people from all over, they buy apartments from a. they pay me a fortune. i like china, mexico. but they cannot believe they get away with what they do. and friends of mine, they come over for dinner and they say we cannot your government is so stupid. stephanie: if i had to take something i was afraid of, i say who are the four foreign leaders -- donald trump: i may not call them. it is all very deep psychological thing. i have a great temperament for business and making money. nationave to make the rich again and i have to make it strong again before it can be great again. we are a better nation. our roads are currently, our airports are horrible. when you fly into laguardia, it
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is an embarrassment. i will get along far better than this administration gets along. and yet, we will do better than this ministry's and does. anna: let us continue our conversation about china from a slightly different angle. we are joined by tim coulter with some of the topics from our business site, peter is still with us. tim, good morning. you have a story about china, but not whether donald trump has the chinese president on his call list. but more about the chinese leadership, and where they're heading next week. tim: of course, where will they end up at buckingham palace? the story is all about the chinese media is making a great fanfare around this visit, around this great royal visit. how he is going to be treated and feted. how he is going to spend the night at buckingham, have a dinner. anna: ride in a state carriage. tim: a gun salute. anna: that is very specific.
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it?this is no accident, is that the chinese media are going heavy on the story, it is communist party priority -- to boost his reputation as a world leader. tim: that is exactly it. the presents him as a very strong person, that someone to be revered and respected. isa time when the economy slowing, the gdp report that could be below 7%. we can, thehe yuan stock market as double to $4 billion. he needs a boost. anna: there is an interesting one for you. peter, we are approaching the 35 year plan to be announced by the end of this month. by the chinese government. we did a survey of economists, for out of 16 -- not a majority -- they still see 4% growth for china. 2020, isoint between
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at the worst-case scenario? peter: it is extremely pessimistic. and there will be an analyst that always goes as a mystic, but you will get the high. if you go and look at the government, what they can actually -- the firepower that still stands at their bidding -- they will drop the possibility of 4%. they really can unload interest rates that are relatively high. they still have an office number of fiscal measures that they have pushed that are starting to see gains from. i think is the fact that the , andnment can stand behind possibly the only thing stopping china from a very hard landing, is the government stepping in so aggressively. i don't think we will see those types of numbers. anna: peter stays with us longer. tim coulter has great stuff on
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the website. i will tweet that out later. next, we are moments away from the latest european car sales number. what will that tell us about vw? ♪
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anna: fading fed bets boost stocks, extending a rally that managed more than 4 billion usd. russia fails to recruit turkey to stem the flow of refugees as aide becomes a sticking point. the world's biggest food maker cap's forecasts. we will speak to the ceo later this morning. "countdown." to coun we are just getting an update on the european car sector, very
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talkable. nejra has the details. 25th straight monthly gain. impressive numbers. yeah, 25th straight monthly gain, rising 9.8%. this is a little bit less than what we had in august, which came in at more than 11%, what we have been seeing in the car market is a little bit of recovery and interestingly, europe has been a bright spot for carmakers, where there have been slumps and wants hot market -- slumps in once hot markets. brazil arehina and what is expected to slump worldwide demand, but those numbers come in strong today, september car sales rising 9.8%. volkswagen's share has slipped
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to 23% anna:. . interesting to hear that the vw shares slipped only to th 23.3%. perhaps they were looking for the long leave time that had artie been placed the vw before the scandal hit, too early to really see the scale of any retrenchment. let's talk about where the equity markets are heading. session has been pretty good and it looks as if we will join in with something of a global rally, getting some sliced gains. 0.6% is the reading for the stoxx 600 this morning when it opens. also, thes at 0.6% estimate for where we should
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open up around this european trading day. a lot of the story at the moment had to do with where you think the fed is going and with that in mind let's focus on u.s. stocks. u.s. stocks have advanced for the first time in three days as bank shares rebounded after citigroup's better than estimated results and asked that's on the fed raising interest rates languish around 30%. julie hyman since this report. >> u.s. stocks rebounded after two days and stocks gained strength, quite a bit of strength, as the session went on. a couple things fueling the game -- better than estimated economic data with jobless claims and consumer prices coming in better than forecast, and also strength of earnings helping to drive things higher. on that front we saw the financials perform well. citigroup came out with earnings that beat estimates and goldman
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sachs and that rising after its trading revenue lagged. it has been a tough trading environment. jpmorgan rebounded from yesterday's loss following its earnings report. after it was met with positive coverage at barclays, rising to a record close, and facebook gaining after upgraded august research. it wasn't all positive. sharplyshares fell after the company's u.s. domestic subscriber growth trailed estimates. netflix blamed it on a consumer transition, saying that those service forupted some. it was not a great day for the year's largest initiative public offerings. one raised $2.6 billion in its initial public offering, pricing
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shares below the initial public offering after falling by 1.5% on the first day. anna: julie hyman reporting their. plenty of data from the u.s. later today. we will get numbers from general electric, 11:30 u.k. time. then later on we turn to the data, u.s. consumer confidence at 3:00. we will have to wait longer. have european earnings coming through that sets us up for the open of european trading. with that in mind let's get over to asia in see what it looks like in hong kong. anna.: hi, we are all session highs now but it looks like we will end the week on a pretty high note. we are seeing all green in all those sections. japan is just ending the day of
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1%. having a pretty good friday, up three quarters of a percent. china is the one that is having a great run this week. it is favoring all of this talk that the fed may not raise rates this year, and that sentiment seems to be spreading. china stocks rising to an eight week high, volumes surging in the last hours or so, 60% up from the average. we see a big again in the tech stock today in shanghai, telecoms up 2.5% and consumer goods up 8/10 of 1%. you mentioned to gdp growth -- that slow down this week. some say that china's economy may be better than you think. the world's
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foremost emerging-market investor, says china's gdp is at least 7%, and a lot of the economy is just not being counted as china transitions from factory to service-oriented. count the third gdp numbers -- watch out for those. tinto -- outlook production numbers today. third quarter iron ore production rose 12%, to 86 million metric tons, in line with estimates. shares down 1%. one ceo defended his $8.6 billion bid for oil search, and alreadythat price was very competitive although some say it will make a higher offer. anna: thank you very much. man in hong kong.
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european leaders concluded a summit where managing migration was top of the agenda. hans nichols joins us from brussels now. subject focus on the amongst many others -- what progress was made on trying to get turkeys help with this problem? well, they have a draft document. turkey has asked for 3 billion euros. there is no agreement within the eu members. angela merkel seems disappointed, almost confused that eastern countries are coming along. she says they need to go back to the drawing board and understand the root causes. juncker, he seemed to be a little more optimistic than others, but he acknowledged that there is quite a bit of tension. refugees who are in turkey to stay in turkey is the first point, which is important.
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the second is preventing refugees and migrants from coming. i know that we debated in the press room about the financial provide --ave to that will be part of this discussion. hans: he is driving a hard bargain -- they want easier visa access to the eu and is accelerated timetable potentially for joining the european union. anna: that is a subject we haven't talked about. there are plenty of other things they talked about. cameron -- this was his moment to reignite the negotiations over britain's eu membership -- what did we learn? hans: we learned that there is
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going to be a timetable. he promised a timetable to restart the negotiations -- here's how mr. cameron put it. >> the bill for our referendum is passed through the commons and is now in the house of lords. the pace will now quicken and we will again set out the areas where we need change, laying down what those changes will be at the start of november. we quicken the pace and the negotiations of the run up to the december counsel, i am confident we can get a good deal, we can fix the things that need to be fixed, and i am confidence that it is well underway. . hans: when he was explaining his positions to his counterparts, it was unclear whether or not that letter he was promised would be made public. this morning the bbc is reporting that the list of andnds will be made public that could complicate the politics domestically. anna: hans nichols reporting
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from brussels. among those weighing in on the migrant crisis, the republican presidential candidate donald trump. he has questioned angela merkel's decision to allow so many syrian refugees into germany. the controversial business seeking the republican presidential nomination told stephanie ruhle about this situation could be the great trojan horse. she made a horrible decision. the people in germany are going wild. she let in tens of thousands of people -- they should have built a free zone in syria. would you take them in? i said 200,000 people that we don't know who they are? no documentation, and look at the migration. they are young, strong, men. i looked -- where are the women? you see very few women. where the children? be the great trojan horse, probably not, but who wants to take a chance?
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it will cost billions of dollars and we want to take in 200,000 people we have no idea where they come from? anna: donald trump. let's get to the head of market strategy. we won't talk about donald trump but in terms of the german growth story, they are facing a number of challenges, whether it is china or the migration story -- what a center for you? important to realize that the confusion at the summit is reflective of a broader confusion within the 28 member states. the fact that they could not put a deal together in their best solution was to give 3 billion euros to turkey is indicative of the chaos. anna: and they haven't agreed on that. is a time when the members should have come together -- they have a clear crisis, and they are showing themselves to be more fragmented than ever. that is worrisome to anyone who thinks the eu can move forward as a monetary or political
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union, and become more convergent. what they are showing is that it will fragment even further. will a worsening german economy forced the ecb to take more action? >> i think so. germany is the engine of growth. if you look at the performance of europe over the last year, it seems like it is back on track and a lot of it has to do with the weaker euro. it stimulated the german economy and is very good for the eu overall. if we continue to see a stronger euro, the ecb will be forced to act and make sure they continue to do basically euro to help germany. anna: peter stays with us a little longer. 7:30 here in london. next, it is not too early to talk about the weekend. investing in china. all things wine when we return. ♪
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anna: 17 minutes past 7:00 in london. here are the stories you need to know this morning. asian stocks up for a second day, extending a rally. is heading for its longest weekly gain since april. nestle reduced its full-year sales forecast after nine months of revenue growth and missed analyst estimates. the world's largest food company was hurt by weakness in the chinese market. france's largest retailer -- rev enue during the third quarter amid growth in its home market -- .2%
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-- we saw weakness in the external numbers that globally and how the u.s. interacted was weakening, can now we are serving to see the domestic numbers come out lower. the retail sales numbers came out weaker and we will see industrial production. the cyclical downturn we are seeing earlier is now going to continue, and that continues to push away this idea of a fed rate hike if we see -- anna: if we see janet yellen entering the 2016 cap, what will be the reason?
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what will have changed? >> it is probably the health of , wages weresumer -- if that wasn't the right time, what we are seeing now with the disappointing retail sales that the labor market is softening, it means that this combination of domestic factors are really going to drive her decision to push off a rate hike. anna: thank you so much for joining us. peter rosenstreich. 7:26 here in london. forecast, its 2015 saying it will fall short of its growth target for the third consecutive year. we take a look at nestle's detail,in more
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particularly in emerging markets, when we come back. how resilient is that part of their business? to speedll get you up on what to expect from today's trading. ♪
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anna: welcome back. 7:30 in london. here are the stories you need to know this morning. asian stocks are up for a second day, extending a rally. the msci asia-pacific index is heading for its longest streak of weekly gains since april, that since a run of weaker than estimated economic reports. sales reduced its for forecasts after they missed analyst estimates, hurt by a recall of noodles and weakness in the chinese market. --'s like an'-- full swagg
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that is according to the european automobile manufacturers association. for 23.3%her account of car sales in europe. france's largest retailer reported further gains in revenue during the third quarter amid growth in its home market and an acceleration in europe. revenue rose by 2.2%, boosted by a strong quarter in italy, belgium, and romania. let's check in on how the asian equities session is doing. yvonne man is standing by. the asian market is picking up where the u.s. left off with a strong session. yvonne: yeah, seems like it. happy friday. the global party continues to move on. you mentioned this $4 trillion rally -- looks like we are keeping it going in the asia-pacific region.
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china seeing volumes in looking pretty good, up 60% after we saw two days of reprieve in the asian markets. is heading for that long streak of weekly gains, the longest since april. china is one of those better markets, and the hang seng is up about half 1%. that wastime we saw back in august. this is all on top of speculation that the government may be ramping up reforms of the state owned enterprises, so first we heard about the price reformsow in the utility sector. as we seeing a rebound continue to wear back investors into the region. maybe a good time to come back to the party. we saw the dollar gain and i do want to talk about the aussie dollar. this is looking more like an
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attractive buy. the first drop in three days 1% in a good month, up the third. a 62% chance they will cut rates by at least one quarter point. last week it was the opposite story -- some were expecting an unchanged rate this year. the insurance stocks in hong kong are looking pretty good today. this is the third most valuable insurer here in asia, jumping the most in two months. we saw quarterly business values beat estimates and insurance in china -- back to you. anna: yvonne man joining us from hong kong -- have a good weekend, yvonne. let's have a look at how european markets will open -- we with a slightp sense of positivity coming through from the u.s. session
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and asians russian. in the middle of your screen you can see the euro stocks set to open around half a percent higher at the start of trade, true for the ftse 100 and the dax. a number of sectors of individual corporate stores are playing into the story this morning, let's dive into some. european car sales are up again but volkswagen's market share has left. we are joined from berlin -- run us through the numbers. who is doing well at the expense of the vw? >> fiat is doing well, picking up market share, which is an arch nemesis. followed by the jeep brand, which doubled last month. folks likens counterparts from germany are doing well, picking up market shares. we are hearing reports of increasing discounts for vw cars.
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recallpany had to millions of cars in europe -- what is the latest on the extent of discounting we are seeing, the extent of the recall? >> there was a report earlier this week saying that there has been an uptick in discounts in germany, and the data in europe is very patchy in terms of discounting, but that is what we are hearing right now, and it makes sense because there was this backlash of negative consumer sentiment about volkswagen. it was not a surprise that the dealers would step up discounting to get customers into the stores, to buy vehicles. happen -- we will see how it shakes out over the next few months, but they left market share and it seems like they bought some of it. they haven't fallen off a cliff so we will see what happens.
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analyst whoke to an is making the point that perhaps this set of data is too early to see the full extent of the fallout. thanks for joining us. what company reporting numbers today -- nestle, disappointing. nejra? growththat revenue number came in lower, meaning that nestle has now cu its sales forecast, saying that they will probably rise about or .5 percent on an organic basis, instead of an increase of 5%. that it is forecasting for your sales growth below the company's long-term average goal for a third consecutive year. if we look at the statement of what nestle said, that they
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would continue solid performance america, and north where the weakness was was in china. recallsuffered from that a noodles in india, which saw quarterly loss for the first time in 15 years. disappointing numbers overall. anna: thank you. how are the analysts reacting to those numbers ahead of the open? ejra: socgen is saying that nestle is poor compared to unilever, which were better than expected yesterday because of ice cream sales, but also nestle has been suffering from a itsnger franc versus competitors who have been benefiting from a weaker euro. socgen said it was very disappointing that nestle had suggested growth should pick up in the second half, and warm weather did help weather and ice
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cream sales -- they said that we may see some investors shipment into other consumers. , analysts are calling the stock lower -- 3%, 4%, 5% lower. anna: thank you. that news from nestle, but better news from car for. they are reporting higher sales and revenues, void by growth in europe. charles allen joins us now for a closer look at those numbers and we're also joined by the global head of slow strategy at society general. great to have both of you here. charles, let's come to you first. a couple things are right in europe -- is that a fair assessment? >> it is. they are doing what all retailers have to do, which is
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simplified. a massivelyme simplifying company and its a massively complicated things to keep profits up. so theys got fed up simplified. they cut prices and reduce the range and the sales have responded. anna: a real turnaround behind some of these massive european businesses. a few years ago it was all about growth in china and asia in sluggish europe and now we are talking about strengths in europe and the china story waning. has played the same trick in italy and spain, that in china it missed out. they said i have an action plan but maybe we will hear a little bit more -- they are definitely online, whicha, is where you have to be at the moment. walmart committing
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again to china and to the internet in china. anna: that was a fascinating story in itself. give us your thoughts on the retailing sector across europe. more of anh o intra-europe story than it was. >> absolutely. if you consider the hypermarket, you have price wars and competitive, aggressive policies. -- what is you have interesting is the story in spain and italy -- a return to .nflation around 4% i think that is really the story with inflation coming back in europe and that has been reflected. anna: we can talk about inflation somewhere, amazing. charles, emerging markets has been so powerful. china is in an area of weakness right now, but what about brazil?
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isn't a new market for them. >> they have had good times and bad times. it is a great for brazil at the moment but they had this great format with a hybrid cash and carry. it really strips down stores, buying in bulk, and that is driving sales. it is at 7.6%, much better than competitors. i think their experiences really paying off. anna: that may be an economy that is struggling. >> nonfood sales, one of their competitors had electronics down 25%. 7.6% looks good. anna: what are the changes they still have to make in the european business? >> we are definitely seeing that they are behind in the online grocery area. air isurkish
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pre-measurable in that area. the main competitor in the cac is 40% of the online market, so they really need to kick start their business. anna: charles, thank you very much. plenty more coming up later in the program. vwing up on the program, sales trying to keep up with competitors as it struggles to come to terms with the fallout of its scandal. more on the auto sector. stay with us. ♪
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anna: welcome back. 7:45 in london. here are the stories you need to know. european market share is a slipped in the wake of the emissions testing scandals.
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september registrations rose 8.3%, less than the overall market, according to the european automobile manufacturers association. fiat accountedd for 23.3% in europe last month. nestle reduces for your sales forecast after nine months revenue growth. the world's largest food company was hurt by a recall of noodles and weakness of the chinese market. france's largest retailer carrefour reported growth in home market and an acceleration in europe. revenue rose 2.2%, boosted by a strong quarter. sales in china dropped 11.2%. up for a second day, extending a rally that has added $4.1 trillion. to global stocks. the msci is heading for his longest streak of weekly gains since april.
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let's get back to our guest, societe general. we are going to be talking about cognitive dissonance -- a psychology thing you find important. it is basically about holding two contradictory beliefs at the same time. where you see this at the moment? >> this is a good description of what happened in the first half of the year. people had a very strong view that europe will do well in china will do very well. in one case of the ecb and the other because of $3.5 trillion in reserves. the equity markets in both regions ought to have outperformed, but it is shown to be more challenging than that initial vision of the world. this is why cognitive dissonance is interesting, a description of the panic. anna: and you can see this
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coming through in a number of things you are wrestling with, such as this china going to experience some kind of collapse in asset values, or sudden climb. if you look at stock market is driven by speculation, using borrowed money, what moment is there, what is to come? >> that is a good question. if you look at china over the past 15 years, you required one dollar of gdp a few years ago and today it is around $10 to generate that. concern,g leverages a the one thing is important to bear in mind is the chinese intonment is very much reducing acid volatility and political volatility. i don't think we will get that moment yet, but the volatility is likely to be higher. anna: you have been in china for a long time. we are about to get more from
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the chinese government -- what are your expectations we have done research with economists, and four out of 16 see something like 4% for china. is that too low? >> i think the numbers make we have had a percent has a target for a long time and that was reduced to 7.5%. i think we are going to have this sort of slowing growth, and that will be managed by the government in a very close to manner. you have to understand that the government has backed it for 10 years and that is unique compared to other economies. they definitely have a long-term plan and vision for the economy, but i think it should help making decisions that will reduce volatility overtime. anna: what are the themes you are investigating at the moment? one thing we have seen is the grand scale of m&a playing out. it certainly has been up until this point.
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but you see a contrast between big m&a, versus companies that are paying dividends and doing buybacks. explain how you invest around that. >> this is an important theme to us, because the way we like to look at corporates are almost like a living organism, like a process of evolution. companies are forced to maximize at the time, and what you see in the u.s. is that a balance sheet is for company is what an asset sheet is for an asset manager. where growth is very low, companies are forced to rely on balance sheets by doing only buybacks, which is what you saw in the u.s. overtime that strategy is not sustainable, and that is where capex will be the next theme, rather than going into
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massive cap expand. the: we are talking about large amount of money and corporate balance sheet's right now -- that is where a lot of the liquidity is. are you expecting some of that to be spent on capital expenditures? >> that is about $1.5 trillion but i like to use the quote from warren buffett, that the cash on balance sheet -- he meant that companies will use the cash for buyback if they don't see positive projects. anna: they can think of nothing better. >> exactly, and that is rational, because you don't want to see to invest in that like we saw in the mining industry. i think there is a dynamic allocation the two in capex for between interning investor survey don't see positive returns. anna: how do you view the mining
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sector? mining week's taking place in london and we have had fascinating comments coming through from the chairman sinsng about some of the he sees in the mining sector -- profits without productivity --. do you see something that is leading the industry? mean, it has been an issue and that is why you saw a lot of the ceos of the mining industry being replaced. i think the mistake that was done in a particular sector has been the concept of long-term growth being too high, and they have gone into massive expansion. it is a necessary condition for growth but it is not a sufficient one. you need to make sure it is profitable. a lot of investment by these mining companies have just proven to be nonprofitable because of rising unit labor cost, etc., and that is why they are paying for their sins.
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shery: will we see a cutback in production? >> yes, and i think this is where the capital intensity of this business needs to be reduced over time. otherwise it will be a challenge for these companies to generate a stable r.e. and pre-cash flow growth. anna: great to talk to you this morning. who thought it would be talking cognitive dissonance in the q4 outlook. societeining us from generale. stay with bloomberg -- plenty to come in to keep an eye on. ateral electric earnings 11:30, u.s. industrial production, u.s. consumer confidence. plenty for european markets to deal with. let's think about the open of the european equity data. move" is next -- what are you watching, jon? jonathan: i am looking at
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burglary, hugo boss, and that's like -- what do they have in common? china. they are struggling with growth and they are set to weigh. we will investigate that common theme. we will also be looking at european car sales -- over to bumper, the 25th straight month for european car sales, but a very important pullback in vw market share on the continent. one question dominates a discussion for the first hour -- is there more to come? will they continue to lose market share? what is in store? then of course we will be looking at brexit. finally, david cameron will put his demands in writing to the eu within a matter of weeks. we will discuss that after this short break. anna: indeed, we will. it is good to listen to manus cranny and what he shouts at you. jon ferro will be back in a
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couple minutes. he will take it through the final trading day of the week. let's check in on futures -- it looks as if we will have a positive start to trading. won't be up by much, the picking of a positive from the u.s. and the asian trading session. european stocks should be higher by around half a percent, which looks to be true for many of the major indices across european equity markets. keep an eye on those car stocks. some of those might move around on the back of september numbers that hit to thvw. that will do it for "countdown." ♪
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jon: good morning, and welcome to "on the move." moments away from the start of european trading. let's get straight to your morning brief. asian stocks follow u.s. markets higher as rate hikes slip. carer to bumper, european sales expand for the 25th straight month in september and volkswagen loses market share. brexit risk, prime minister cameron vows to put eu demands and running within weeks. open, 20 seconds away this is how we might wrap
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up the week. ftse futures up by 22 points and tax futures up by 78 points. let's get straight to the european market open with nara chain pitch -- njera. reporter: we saw losses for stocks at the start of the week and a rally yesterday. are we going to see that rally today? we have seen a $4 trillion global rally this month and a lot of that has been about the fed. we are back to that situation where bad news is good news for markets. backeaker data has pushed the timing of a fed rate rise to let's look at how the markets are performing at the open. what we are seeing at the moment is green across the board. 40 and france up on most 6/10 of a percent as well.

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