tv On the Move Bloomberg October 16, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT
up the week. ftse futures up by 22 points and tax futures up by 78 points. let's get straight to the european market open with nara chain pitch -- njera. reporter: we saw losses for stocks at the start of the week and a rally yesterday. are we going to see that rally today? we have seen a $4 trillion global rally this month and a lot of that has been about the fed. we are back to that situation where bad news is good news for markets. backeaker data has pushed the timing of a fed rate rise to let's look at how the markets are performing at the open. what we are seeing at the moment is green across the board. 40 and france up on most 6/10 of a percent as well.
that is how we are shipping up across the natural equity benchmark. a bit of a food and beverage theme here and let's start with nestle. given.8%, not a surprise that its nine-month sales numbers were a myth. that it has cut its sales forecast for the full year from 5% down to 4.5%. there he disappointing numbers because of weakness in china and the effect of that maggie recall. europe and north america are doing ok. carrefour, this stock doing ok this morning. it reported further games in revenue in the third quarter because of growth in the home market. also acceleration in europe and around the contrail -- remy cointreau -- gaining as well. a lot of luxury companies have
collapsed. but remy cointreau doing ok its 2015 has kept target and sales came in better than expected and keep your eye europeaners with those car sales numbers. a 25th straight month of gains. jon: the -- early part of trading here in europe. the ftse 100 opening higher. the trading day is wrapping up in asia. manverworked yvonne standing by. reporter: overworked but happy friday. we are seeing a fourth straight friday of gains across asian equities. japan rising for a second date with china seeing some of the best returns in a week on a two-month high with shanghai closing 1.6% up. about 6% since last
friday and that is the biggest such advance we have seen in four months. this is all on the back of speculation that the government will facilitate enterprises. price reforms in the eu till of the utility sector and we are seeing a rebound continue to look were back at investors with trading volumes jumping 60% above the 30 day average. we are counting down to the gdp numbers coming up monday. the hang seng, ending the day above 23,000. that is the first time we have been above that level since august. i want to and on the movers here. we talked about the macau casinos yesterday. they were bullish, but not today. on the backs of revenue shrinking in macau to one third. call when tempted earnings to blast china saying that officials still not have not
told him how many tables he will get when his new resort opens in may. he says this makes the planning, hiring and training very confusing. back to you. what is happening in the markets across europe and in asia. here is today's show. european car sales speed up but volkswagen is on the back foot. ben cameron takes on brussels. the u.k. prime minister says he will put his list of demands on paper and weeks and federal disbelief, should investors really be doubting team toy 15 results -- 2015 results. european car sales gained for the 25th straight month since september rising 9.8% but european market share slipped in the wake of the emissions testing scandal. for more, let's bring in chris writer in berlin.
everyone will wake up and read that headline and think it was pretty germanic. it wasn't -- dramatic. it wasn't, it was subtle. the question, is there more to come? reporter: that is the big question because how consumers react will play itself out in the next weeks and months. it will take a long time for volkswagen to fully recover, so the fact that they have only lost a little bit of market share.it is 23.3% market it wasn't a massive drop but we do understand there was some discounting involved to get to but this is just beginning. that is the difficulty as you point out, these car registrations are not the value of the actual cars sold and we don't know whether the discounts were heavy and that is why they maintained some of the market share they would
have otherwise lost. the question is if they lose it marginally who is gaining that market share? reporter: it was a really good month for fiat. especially is doing very well in europe. jeep renegade. counterpartsn's have both picked up market share. both with small car brands. the mini brand for bmw and the smart rent for daimler. jon: great to have you with us to break down the numbers. our bloomberg auto reporter out of frankfurt. , he is the in yogi ceo who helps oversee $1 billion in assets. looking at the investment banking numbers you can see the volatility and the chinese slowdown in burberry and hugo boss.
you wonder whether the vw crisis is starting to feed into these numbers. i asked to chris, is there more to come? do you see more to come? reporter: there is definitely more pain for vw. the stock is down 28% and they are going to struggle to get through things over the next few years. there's lots of discounting with market share maintained. some of the competitors will benefit. we have gone out and bought but ir as an alternative, think it all adds to the overall uncertainty. caution is very high and sentiment is quite negative. cash levels are at all-time highs with private families but also corporations as well. the markets are down 1% year to date. headlines.
i want to talk about the cars. you mentioned tesla, what is the pr around tesla in the last month. the talk of a structural shift from the diesel to electric and it has been like tumbleweed and it has barely moved. reporter: -- guest: they are not threatened in the marketplace to the level that everyone expects. buta is an exciting brand daimler offers good alternatives which is why we went to buy them, particularly when it comes to heidrick -- hybrid cars and electric cars. they have a significant market share in the electric car market. jon: you are and investor, not an investigator. when you look at the auto sector, is it a one-off style mess? or is it symptomatically something wider in the industry? is there a risk premium now and the auto sector as you look at things? , but we dolutely
believe it is already priced in. wider't think it is a systemic issue. all the competitors have come out and made very bold statements how this is not an issue on their doorstep as well. jon: up next, cameron takes on brussels. the u.k. prime minister says he will put his list of demands on paper within weeks.
jon: nestle reduced its full-year sales forecast after revenue growth missed estimates. they were hurt by recall of noodles in india and weakness in the chinese market. on ane climbed 4.2% organic basis as they struggled against the strong swiss franc. european market shares flipped last month for volkswagen in the wake of the scandal. september registration rose 8.3%. the brand accounted for 23.3% of car sales across europe last month. retailer the largest -- byenue rose 2.2%, boosted strong sales. sales in china for carrefour dropped 11.2%. welcome back to bloomberg tv.
we are 13 minutes into the trading session this friday morning. here are the markets, the ftse 100 up by 0.5%. the dax also higher by the same amount. switch up the boards and go through the fx market. what a week for the euro-dollar. it has been the dollar weakness side of the story that has dominated the fx side of the story. the dollar index headed for the third straight week of declines. wti at $47 per barrel. higher this morning but coming off the day -- back of a four-day losing streak. brent at $50 a barrel, almost dead flat. those are the markets, here is the politics. european leaders have concluded that a summit in brussels where managing migration was top of the agenda. also top was the eu u.k.
referendum. hans nichols has been at the summit. the u.k. prime minister david cameron wasn't exactly his moment to reignite negotiations. but he took it. we do know that we will get a written list of demands within weeks. what will be on that letter? hans: if you have that letter, you would have much better sourcing inside westminster than either. this -- brussels dominated the first part of the agenda with everett cameron -- david cameron pledging that he would have a letter in three weeks. that puts us into november to start negotiations on what the u.k. is going to ask for. here is how mr. cameron put it before he explained it to colleagues. in the houses now of lords and the pace will now quicken and i will again be setting out the four vital areas
where we need change, laying down what the changes will be at the start of november. we quicken the pace and quicken those negotiations in the run up to the november counsel. i'm confident we can get a good deal for britain and fix those things that need to be fixed. hans: after he explained his position to his colleagues cameronhe meeting, mr. did not head to the cameras afterward. what we believe to be the case is that the letter will be made public. the bbc is reporting that ultimately his list of demands will be public and that could be a political liability. in other news, the deal with turkey on the flow of migrants has been drawn up. eu nations will contribute. what does this deal and tail? -- entail?
hans: they are not there yet. angela merkel seems to suggest she is for the larger amount. turkey would get much easier visa access and a readmission of their talks to join the eu but there is a concern among eastern european countries about this deal. >> in the spirit of burden sharing, solidarity between neighbors, it is on the right for the european union to think about how they can participate in that. hans: later, angela merkel seemed to suggest she was almost confused or hurt by the opposition among eastern european countries. merkel says she has to go back to the drawing board and try to figure out how to bring them along. in the meantime, the chancellor will be visiting turkey and there could be so more progress of their.
maybe more demands and maybe she could potentially deliver a deal at that point. as things and it last night, there was the final deal. jon: a busy angela merkel as ever. --eron have to sit about think about what he will write on that letter. we have to decide what a brexit would mean for the u.k. economy. our next guest exit would be a good thing. joining us, the chairman and founder of shore capital group. great to have you with us. you sit in germany. argumentms to be an that cameron has little leverage in the eu has bigger things to worry about than the prospect of the u.k. leaving. can you tell me how misplaced that argument is as you sit in germany? it is obviously entirely misplaced. the fact that europe is in terms of absorbing refugees and dealing with the greek sovereign debt crisis, dealing with sanctions,
vis-a-vis russia, slow down in exports to china makes europe much weaker and the u.k. in a much stronger position to force through a good renegotiation. jon: there seems to be to bank basic arguments around the trade issue. one is that the eu is the biggest trading partner and the other is that we actually run a deficit and so the eu needs the u.k. just as much if not more. which argument resonates with the german public and german business as you have been holding discussions this week? they are finally coming to terms with the fact that this is a real possibility. the most powerful lobby in germany is the export lobby. the thought of risking losing the u.k. as a free-trade partner is unthinkable. to fear fromthing
trade discussions as a result of any eu renegotiation or exit. when david cameron writes up a letter, what are the specifics they want on the letter? guest: i think there is a divide between some big this misses and some smes. we petitioned a poll which employs 60% of the private sector workforce and created 68% of all jobs over the last five years. 2-1 thatp said that by the eu hinders rather than helps their businesses. nearly half said that they would either pay people more money, or employee more people, if they were not part of the eu. there are sections of big business in favor of staying in the eu that fear any change. up onust to pick you
that, small to medium-sized enterprises are not asking for change, they are asking for brexit. would i be wrong? --st: the definitely phil feel that under the current regime we are better off out than in. it doesn't mean you cannot change the rules to rebalance things. 's whorvey was among ceo were asked how does the eu affect their business? it is a slightly different question than, would you as an individual like to remain in the eu? there are political and social considerations to take into account. jon: so what are the specifics you would like to see on the letter? what would the smes like to see? tubing things you would put -- wo things you would put on the list. guest: i would change immigration policy, i would have secondly, iem and
would have the ability for the u.k. to take back legislation, particularly in the sphere of employment and health and safety. jon: do you really think that is possible? on aerything is possible renegotiation where you hold the cards. it depends how strongly you enter into negotiation and how confident you are of your position. it is unthinkable in my view that europe considers the u.k. leaving. jon: thank you very much. should disbelief, investors be doubting the result of team 2015? >> it is a forecast. it's not a commitment.
about whether the economy will be stronger is realistic given that the economy is growing only slightly above trend, unemployment is coming down slowly, the recent economic news suggests the economy is slowing and we have these developments that could develop in a way that come back to hurt the economy and hold down u.s. inflation. prematurely you risk having to go back down and that would raise questions about what you do at that point. but if you wait too long you might have to take monetary policy aggressively and that would run a risk on the other sites he were balancing those tubing risks. >> i said if they perform in line with my focus i would say it's a risk but it is a forecast that commitment. yogi, the ceo in of asset management. first question to you. if we were in the middle of a normal rate cycle, let's say
we're around 4% or 5% given where gdp is, within the talking about cutting rates? >> of course they would. the economy is flowing and inflation is flat. it makes no sense what is going on. and the federal reserve have lost so much credibility. >> when i look at the rate forecast it seems to have lost a tremendous amount of credibility with the market. even january twice 16 is just 39%. how do they navigate the communication from here at the fed, there is a meeting this month and a meeting in december, what is left? >> i think they are just making a real mess of things and we would be surprised to see a rate cut down to 2017. jon: how on earth do they communicate that will not move until 2017 without really spooking the market. >> the first thing that needs to happen is people like bill
dudley cannot go around saying we will see the possibility of rate hikes this year. rate hikes are clearly being priced into next year and the 10 2%. bond traded below the market thinks rate hikes will not take place until next year and of course we have an election so if it doesn't happen in q1 it is unlikely to happen. we also have the view there is no need for a rate hike bearing mind where the economy is and inflation data. it makes no sense. it will be a gesture, a signal to market sentiment and nothing more than that. the impact on the economy will be insignificant. jon: so i will look into the on market with the u.s. 10 year yield at almost 2% flat. hsbc 4.5% next year and peripheral yields being granted down into something that looks like a 10 year bond. when i look at the equity market i wonder, and i asked this yesterday, whether we should be looking to the bond proxies in the equity market because where do i get my yield?
guest: your yield will come from dividend yield rather than anywhere else. yields are just around 2%. tells you the markets are not expecting a rate hike for quite some time and as you are ready said look at the probabilities up to 53%. these figures are just coming down very fast, very quickly, irrespective of what the fed are saying. nobody is listening. we believe there is a significant risk of the reasonable market rallied by the end of the year. the issue to remember is that everybody has been very cautious, they are very long cash with investors and corporations. markets will slowly trade higher, the dollar will slowly weaken as everyone realizes rate hikes won't take lace until much later than anticipated and this is an opportunity to start to build on exposure.
jon: want to reconcile your view on the fed with the medication strategy. if we believe they will back off from a 2015 hike, how do they make that good news? the bad news eventually becomes bad news. how does the badness become good news? guest: at the end of the day the markets will do what they do. you will see things like the bond market trade and yield get lower. you'll see the dollar weakened and the dollar slightly trade higher and then the markets will go right back to fundamentals. it is earnings that drive share price appreciation, not macro events. so that will drive share prices higher. the fed don't have to do anything. jon: where other good earnings? guest: i thought -- no one thought intel were great numbers when they came out. goldman missed but still traded high because the guidance was good.
trading volumes are going to increase going forward and this is a good environment for banks. jon: thank you for joining us. the ceo of hassan asset management. nestle cuts the forecast while carrefour hits a chinese weekbump in then and many wraps up. lme weekt me week -- wraps up. what did we learn? minutes into your trading day let's see how things are shaping up to here is a picture of the equity market here in europe there it the stoxx 600 up by 0.6%. the dax and germany up by 63 points. we will take a look at the fx market for you. inwe said earlier soft data retail sales really waiting on the dollar. the dollar declining for a third straight week. cable as well is approaching
1.55 flat. this little bit higher this morning up like .6% on wti. some stocks to look for, let's get to your top stocks stories with nara. industry the only groups declining our food and beverage companies but carrefour is bucking the trend. this is after the third-quarter sales came in line with estimates. it had a strong quarter in europe. gains inboosted by spain, italy, belgium and romania. can see those shares down 7% at the moment. luxury retailers having a tough time with slumping demand in china. hugo boss has fallen the most in more than four years today and this is after it cut its sales and earnings forecast for the
year. way down by weaker third-quarter results in china and also the u.s.. finally, i want to talk about volkswagen. we have had that car sale data today, a growth of 9.8% in september, but volkswagen has had a bit of an impact from the emissions cheating scandal. the market share has declined from 23.7%, dropped to 23.3%. jon: let's keep it on the stocks. nestle reporting rather disappointing numbers this morning. she can take us to that. reporter: very disappointing numbers. if i start with the nine-month sales growth that came in at 4.2% and analysts had been expecting 4.7%. up less than are 1% here today absolutely
trailing the wider stock 600 food and beverage index which is up about 12% for the year. todayock is taking a hit with that nine-month sales growth missing estimates bloomberg.com meeting nestle said the sales will probably rise 4.5% this year. that is a cut in the forecast. it has been predicting 5% as you can see they're back in august. the nine-month sales missed a four year forecast cut. this is because of weakness in china, but also the impact of that windfall on maggi noodles in india. that market saw a quarterly loss for the first time in four years. after that if they are having challenges because of a stronger from and that its competitors are benefiting from a weaker euro. euro hasy that they been doing ok and seeing improvement in north america. jon: france's largest retailer
carrefour reported further gains in retailers. guess were the weakness was? china. i'm sensing a theme. let's bring in charles allen. i saw it in the burberry numbers and the hugo boss numbers. is it in the carrefour numbers as well? reporter: you have to remember that carrefour has been weak in china for a long time. jon: china has been weakening for a long time as well. reporter: but we have seen a shift in the food market that carrefour has not maybe been on top of and was not their priority. market is a little bit out of fashion and carrefour the getting to build a convenience business and online, carrefour has not really matched all of its competitors getting a big online operation going in china. recommit to that
but other competitors are also doing this. ago -- fourg years years ago i was sit in this chair and we would say china improves, europe slows. carrefour was a dreadful place for a long time. you look at the numbers and they seem to be getting it right. what has changed? reporter: carrefour is an example of a company that did a lot wrong in europe. offerally the consumer just went horribly wrong. it was too complicated and there were too many promotions and too many trucks. -- products. that has been reversed. prices are better, fewer products on the shelves. italy,larly in spain and you have to remember the comparisons with weak numbers. jon: you look in china and there is a story. but tesco pulling out of south korea, if you could consider
that an emerging market economy. they are saying nonfood sales under pressure in brazil, what is the brazil story? reporter: realistically they are doing pretty well in brazil. forecast that really appeals in budget times which is nearly double digit-like sales but nonfood is difficult in brazil. , thef their competitors electronics chain is 25% down like for like. point 7% is not bad in a tough market. jon: food and retail is a big theme this morning. later, we will be talking to the nestle ceo about those results. do not miss that interview. next, a commodity shock sends waves through lme week. ♪
weaker dollar is the story so far this week. that is what is happening in the market this morning and here are some of bloomberg's top stories. volkswagen's european market share slipped last month in the wake of the emissions testing scandal. the september registrations rose 8.3%. accountedy's brand for 23% of car sales across europe last month. the toymaker mattel missed estimates. the company has been struggling to revive sales of barbie, the largest brand amid increased competition of other toys and it girls. david cameron says he will set out his eu form demand within weeks. the pm said he will spell out what the u.k. once in a letter to donald tusk. for our referendum
has passed through the commons and is in the house of lords. the pace will quicken and i will again be setting out the four vital areas where we need change and laying down what those changes will be. we quicken the pace and quicken those negotiations but i am confident that we can get a good deal for britain and fix those things that need to be fixed and i am confident that the process is well underway. jon: something else that topped the agenda was the eu migrant crisis. someone else weighed in, who else but donald trump? , germany'somberg decision was a mistake. a horribleshe made decision and the people in germany are going wild. she let in tens of thousands of people. they should've built in syria of freezone and said would you take them here? i said to -- 200,000 people we don't even know who they are? look at the migration, they are
young men, young, strong men. i look and say where are the women? where are the children? then they want to take in -- this could be the great trojan horse of all-time. probably not, but who wants to take a chance? it will cost billions of dollars and we want to take in 200,000 people with no idea where they come from. jon: i will just talk about metals instead. in almost unanimous bearish sentiment among the mining industry. it boils down to the slowdown in china is what some told bloomberg. usings a marketplace copper as a proxy for the general chinese economy. it can be a very dangerous game in the medium and long term. that --stage we ask expect the market to move into a deficit. you don't want a short position
when they move into a deficit. >> if you do a very simple economic analysis, it is very simple to see that familiar commodities have become more volatile. have very clear they acquired a life of their own away from fundamentals. >> today if you look at the prices without giving you any guidance, if you look where they are compared to the cost curve there is some thing that doesn't stack up. >> you even look at the downside risk in copper and iron ore versus oil. for copper we're sitting in that $5,200 per ton range so we see far more downside risk. >> long-term the picture is positive and china is still consuming huge quantities of the commodities that oil produces. it is not that china has suddenly stops it's that the growth has slowed. >> the demand for copper is
still there in the long-term, so will still bet we in business in china for a long time. energy anderg extra commodities editor joins us now. i have done this and it was a very depressing start to l md week, or these guys propped up at the end of it? guest: most have felt pretty gloomy about the copper market in particular. we heard from a lot of producers who say it doesn't reflect fundamentals. the price is the price and they have to take it. jon: i love when a sick it doesn't reflect fundamentals and a look at the rio tinto production numbers and the amount of it being pumped out of the ground as we sit there at $40? really? it's not about fundamentals? guest: you heard him say it there, copper and iron ore still makes money. people will keep producing it
and this is the big debate in the industry. you have some saying we are behaving irresponsibly. he has made some moves in that direction but the question is, will others follow echo -- follow? jon: we can come right down and crush everyone else and that seems to be the strategy. when i look at the metals market, you guys wrote based -- a fantastic story about surveys and for recent how wrong everybody was. his we -- as we sit here at aluminium -- >> it is all about china. he had our analyst on who has been telling us an interesting story about how you can't read china with so much of it bound up in financial trades and houses and i don't think anyone knows. >> the ceo is so depressed he is turning to country music. what is the story? it cap's at the end of
the week and lots of people turn up and he give a speech and said things are terrible and i will sing you a song. it was not so much singing as singsong speaking. jon: i am not familiar with country music either and they will not put you in that position. was glencore a big topic of conversation this week? is more nowways than ever, people still reeling from the amazing roller coaster in their shares. the friday before the week he made this announcement about production. he knows how to stay in the news. jon: will kennedy, thank you very much for joining us this morning. next, a busy few days for markets. it is all about the fed and some big m&a. ♪
jon: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." i am jonathan ferro live from london. is there trouble ahead on main street? walmart shares took a dive today, they say it could fall as much by 12% in the next year. rose by 0.1%ales in september. that piece of data is just adding to 2015 rate hike skepticism. odds of a rate hike this year have fallen to below 30%.
those dimmed fed expectations together with the fragile economy resulted in a major call from hsbc they cut their forecast to just 1.5% by the end of next year. and on the mega deal of the week anbquite likely the year, to buy sab miller for 3.5 billion pounds. shares of sabr up about 35% since the deal was announced. every threene of beers and the world and collects one of every tubing dollars of profit industrywide. that's a must it for this hour of bloomberg tv. the pulse is up next and we are joined by manus cranny. manus: this has been a big issue. jon: i do worry. manus: do you think there is a chance they will buy perrone?
jon: he needs to by others as well. there are a number of italian brands we need to buy back. we won't go there. manus: we were having a little bit of a debate about whether i was crushed. they are up 1%, they are quite right. stocks continue to rally. it is much more moderated, not like on the move where stocks roar and things crash and plunge. have added $4.5 trillion to their value since october. so 15 days ago, the world was ending. everything is nearly a bear market. and here we are on the rally, on the roar. i love a deal and the sab miller deal is something we will focus on. shackleton has an interesting call on china.
that is what mark mobius is saying. they looked at a lot of the data and they believe that china's growth numbers are up and around the 7% level. jon: what about the corporate numbers? manus: they tell a very different story. all numbers are retrospective and show you a pattern. more -- you a bit have different stories with unilever and nestle. is it really attainable? we have a guest coming in to chat on those issues. stocks rally, not roar. jon: who said they were roaring? manus: the producer. it was marie. jon: i looking at rate hike.
4% for october, 31% for december. says: mohammed el-erian don't write it off. formerly one of the guys at pimco. he says don't write of december because -- i find this fascinating. stanleylates between fischer who is the international voice on the fed mohamed el-erian saying international does not trump the domestic scenario. the internal debate versus the external debate. in terms of what moves the fed. jon: if we sit around here at december, are they really going to move to that market? would not be likely to see a federal reserve act in a matter which they have done over the past 30 years which is they are in charge and not the markets. is time to say we
are in a different paradigm. they don't want to scare the oung ends, cranny's treasury market. coming up after the short break. equities here in london up by 6/10 of 1%. quick up the board for a check this morning. 1.13 dollars.you wti coming off of the back of a four-day losing streak. let's head to nejra. reporter: food and cars. what could be better for a friday.
this is one of the industry groups that is declining today. if you look at what we have seen and some of the biggest gainers, carrefour has been doing well. that stock gaining after they reported further gains in revenue and a sales coming in line with estimates. the had a strong quarter in europe boosted by gains in spain, italy, belgium and romania. nine-month sales growth we saw 4.2% versus expectations of 4.7%, leading the company to actually cut its full-year sales growth forecast. significant cut meeting the sales growth forecast will be below the average goal. for a third consecutive year it has really been seeing challenges.
it is a challenges with a stronger swiss franc benefiting from a weaker euro. in a have to mention volkswagen because we have that strong sales data for european cars. the 25th straight month of gains with lots of market share pushing that lower. jon: thank you very much. you want to wake up early monday morning, 3:00 a.m. u.k. time is china gdp. you don't what to wake up that early. that is it from me. you can follow me on twitter. best of luck for the rest of your day. ♪