tv On the Move Bloomberg October 20, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT
away. futures are pretty much dead flat. as our dax futures. it will be much more exciting with that. see if itc: let's will be exciting. three days of gains for european stocks pushing europe's equity benchmark to the highest level since august. we have seen it rally so far this month about 4.7 percent. let's see what the equity market is doing the opening. it's like a mixed picture at the moment. a lot closed. trading pretty flat. cac 40 unchanged. toll waiting for the dax open. yesterday and today has been largely about corporate earnings. a look at some of the movers in terms of the stock we have been watching. i want to start with auschwitz phonecarrier -- a swedish carrier. the stock plummeted at last week
after muddy waters, the research firm, said questions in a report of by the extent of the transparency in the eurasian market. this company reported earnings today and basically it cut its full-year forecast after posting a profit decline in operations former soviet countries. trying to move out of those markets and focus on your. -- europe. it will like it is moving higher. it is moving more than 1%. this was called higher. gaining after the swiss drugmaker raised earnings forecast by a new drug for love disease-free deutsche bank is pretty flat. -- a new drug for long disease. -- deutsche bank is pretty flat. a foreign exchange unit mistakenly sending $6 billion to a u.s. hedge fund client and retrieved the money a day later.
we will hear more later. very much.hank you and remarkable story out of deutsche bank. i will break it down later. the ftse 100 almost dead flat. for, germany,ight up about 0.1%. the early moves. the marks to wrap out of asia with the david in hong kong. david: good morning. fairly an eventful up until may about 15 minutes ago. which ighai composite will flesh out in a moment. that is ending the day about 1.2% higher. the rest of asia looking like this -- everything together and regional down mark -- benchmarks are down. due to the losses of wickedness, got of us -- we could is them out of australia. an hour later -- a left. indue to losses of weakness
austria. in a zombie trends. days up.down, two altogether him back to levels of two fridays ago. quietar direction, very eco-data wise which is reflective of what you are seeing across of the session. let me flesh out the shanghai composite. my chart here. start aent of similar late surges into the close in the summer as if these levels put does back to the levels of may the highest level in two months. 34.25. if you ask me why, i do not know. jonathan: i will not ask you why. a slow, quiet turn in asian markets. a flat open in europe.
here's what is happening in today's a show. from china with love, david talkon hopes xi jinping's could be worth 30 billion pounds for businesses. fedreporter will speak to vice president john williams. a $6 billion fat finger. deutsche bank as said to have transferred billions of dollars to u.s. hedge fund all by mistake. -- fund by mistake. front and center in the u.k. xi jinpingsident landed last night tourette carpet reception and prime minister cameron said it will bring in more than 30 billion pounds worth of deals and investment. for more, we're joined by caroline hyde outside of buckingham palace and bloomberg news reporter andrew davis in hong kong. great to have you both. caroline, the industry's said to benefit, have got the details?
industry every single is said to help that 30 billion pounds of investment, almost 4000 jobs said to be created. technology will be a winner. xi jinping will visit a a chinesecompany and company, maker of telecom equipment and tech will be winning and retail. about one billion pounds to be added up by introducing the chinese consumer that much more tightly to the u.k. exporters. really going to be energy and finance. we have details of investments by the chinese in terms of not only helping to pay for but to build and help design new nuclear reactors in the united kingdom. the financial sector, the city of london dominates the foreign exchange market but it was to be too that
your one done -- yuan. when it in that aspect. and the central bank of china, first over over sales -- overseas debt sale in london. the government of china lighting up a yuan data cell. they are winning the battle. the 30 billion pounds hopefully that comes, we are seeing the red carpet really rolled out. look behind me and we're starting to see crowds gathered, lined up two seed xi jinping to come down. he will be what the son of queen elizabeth, prince charles, meeting him. and if they will meet the queen. there will be lunches and banquets and david cameron, of course, the prime minister taking them up to manchester. andpowerhouse he once built infrastructure to be built.
and manchester city and imperial college in london. but also not only cross supporters, there could be a few crowds of protesters as well. concerns about civil rights and what industries are doing in china. listened andrew, you it is crucial. the u.k., a relatively small player compared to china. i wonder what it looks like on the other side of the relationship. in every single newspaper here, is it on the radar in china? this xi jinping expecting a lot from the relationship? andrew: completely on the radar in china. get up veryying big. here, another example of stridingxi on the world stage -- xi striding on the world stage and david cameron bending backwards. it is play very well home and on of the state visit to
washington where he met obama. and a big military parade a month ago. a way of projecting strength as xi consolidates power and on the heels of the market meltdown in china. a way of all this pompous or of distracting attention -- pomp and circumstance of distracting attention and making people proud to be chinese and proud of it xi jinping. jonathan: great to have your views. caroline hyde and andrew davis, a big thank you. let's talk trade. that will take center stage on i's talk. x the u.k. has the largest trade deficit with china. a golden era. the question for the u.k. is a golden era for who? we will send the question to james bevan. great to have you with us. a golden europe for home.
will it be a different kind of situation in the trade data? james bevan: absolutely, german has a win immensely depend on exporting manufacturing. one of the strengths of industry. to say where do we go for the next decade? policy growth and consumer brands will be much more important as china itself undergoes a significant period of economic change. british companies i suspect will win will be companies that absolutely can lead a global charts and have excellent management capabilities. a puren: just from fundamental exports story, when you look at the breakdown, germany and the u.s. and a dominated line of european thetries, that is always at joe. we export more or similar amounts to belgium than china. -- that's always the joke.
what is the story? james bevan: the uk's biggest weblem from the late 1970's, began to shift an economy for one dependent on manufacturing to delivering exports which became dependent on services as particular financial services and construction. as we know through the global financial crisis, it was extremely dangerous. it's a limited industries and dependency on a leverage in that. where does it go from here? we have to talk about the rebalancing of the economy long overdue. bad news from the steel industry and we are still competitive in some aspects of production function. we are producing better quality and more cars. jenna debate rebalancing is fascinating. rebalancing is fascinating. the north is suffering on the short term on the back of the
collapse of the still industry. internal struggle between the south and the north and how does it play into the political narrative but 20's leaders? james bevan: in britain, we accept rebound through the physical process of raising taxes and spending money. london subsidize the rest of britain. if it was a european conversation, north england of is and germany, a lot it fair or reasonable? this the issue of nations. jonathan: james bevan, great to have you. it is all about the goldilocks economy. >> with the start removing accommodation over the next few years, gradually and got this goldilocks economy. not too hot and not too cold. ♪
what i think of as full employment. inflation below our target, significant consideration. we understand why it is happening due to the strong dollar, decline in oil prices. i see an economy that is strengthening and one of our mandates. there are still risks and uncertainty. the important thing to think about is not just our first moved to raise interest rates but we will need accommodative monetary policy for another few years. we start the process are raising rates, it will be the case that monitor conditions are pretty accommodative and supportive of continued growth. reporter: would you vote for an interest rate increase on the 28th? john williams: i am not going to speculate about what my views are for that meeting. we start the process of the deep dive briefings that starts tomorrow. i spent a whole week preparing
and we will get a lot of material and listen to my colleagues. i am not going to decide on that today. reporter: the 10 year note yield 2%, ifpoint percent -- you vote in october, it was shock of the market. it at the fed willing to do that? john williams: we need to focus on fundamentals. where is the economy and where we see the economy going on the next couple of years? an important consideration is it takes a year to four monetary policy actions to have the full effect. we have to look at the front window and not to back in the rearview mirror and thinking about policy decision. jonathan: john williams is looking through the front window. investors are through the front will you -- window as well. they are skeptical of the fed will rate -- hike interest rates. a 30% they will move in december i forget october. let's bring in james bevan.
for thehis problem federal reserve, you hear a lot talking about how they want a mobile the end of the year but the market is saying no chance. will they go gives a the market? i put a rate hike probability of december around 50%. higher than the markets bring my reasoning is at the fed has a window to raise rates. you may want to re-stimulate an economy. , itt has interest rates will have to get back for more quantitative easing and relatively few policy options to get at the economy moving. i suspect they would like one hike and the bag. jonathan: does it make sense in terms of economic theory to move to cut again? james bevan: all about sending, strong consistent signals. we have mr. williams saying what
ever happened in terms of the first hike is highly likely the will be accommodating pre-easing policy for the next year and consistent with what we can see of the u.s. economy. very inflated -- very low inflation. coming into 2015, they end of 2014, people in front of me as said the ecb would do more and go on this road toward the first rate hike. as we sit here a year later, how limited visibility going to the 2016? a lot of conviction about individual banks. ecb said to do more according to strategists and economists. the bank of england will not do anything until the end of 2016. that is what is priced in. how wrongfooted investors could be? one of the big challenges is western democracies have required
central banks to play the role of government. if you sell well to be the big shot? we get an outcome like canada's election where the big shift like we want to spend more money. we think the only way is not have very low interest rates but drive the economy through government. jennifer: dutiable goods -- a jonathan: do you think we will get that political shift? james bevan: i think we will get back into the 1930's. china and the 1930's had an incredible credit crunch for it require government spending to get it going up again. we had riots in the streets. we do not how right this time around for but a limit democracy has of people putting up with difficult conditions, very low growth. will talkjames bevan, politics later. monetary policy later today, i was free to the bank of england committee,mmenced --
i am jonathan ferro. let's talk about an error. deutsche bank for exchange unit sent $6 billion to a u.s. hedge fund client back in june. before recovering the money a according to a person briefed on the matter. hans nichols is in berlin. the city of london trying to figure out how on our event happened. how did it happen? running through it. hans: a junior trader on the foreign exchange debt dealing with a hedge fund client and instead annexing out, they grossed out for after a big night a drinking, i pay for all of your drinks not counting all said and what i paid, a much bigger bill heading your way. the reporter yesterday and bloomberg confirmed. take a look at the receipts. a sharp dip down and everybody realized it was an error.
you see them pick back up. it is the reported to the relevant authorities in the u.k. and here on the continent as well to the u.s. federal reserve. what it does is raise questions about deutsche bank. it is so of reasons concerning. a company in transition. we saw john crane on sunday at enough a new leadership structure. a bunch of musical chairs and a s are looking eye get everything. what sort of protocols are in place? embarrassing for the bank and they have declined to comment and the money is recovered and we get to talk about a $6 billion fat finger error. jonathan: we got to talk about drinking analogies. i want to extend at that. let's say you pick up the tab. if it was his $6 billion bill, how come it did not trigger something and go through without oversight?
hans: there is an easy explanation. that is my limit is much higher .han yours for $6 billion you are right. that is what it comes down to. protocol. what triggers do you have in place to make sure it was not annexed as he wrote? a mistake of a junior banker. -- to make sure it was not an extra zero? jonathan: hans nichols with a bigger amex limit that me. james bevan, how concerned would you be? james bevan: very concerned about checks and balances and the whole culture of investment of technology and people. these things happen. if you said who wins and loses, i would say the losers are andnd the regulation
financial reporting very difficult for the winners are the players at the front in terms of technology. i would say goldman sachs in terms of banking -- jonathan: what banks do you like? lawyers and barclays. british economy looks relatively safe area -- lloyds and barclays. safe. saythan: james bevan will what those. the biggest political combat and canada's history. hall justin trudeau -- how justin trudeau's liberals won. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,
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jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." i am jonathan ferro. your tradingto day. stoxx 600 up by the report 1%. age rack on the ftse for a second straight day as a bhp and anglo embryo, the list goes on. -- a drag on the ftse for a second straight day as a bhp and , the list goes on. switch it up and i want to check on the prices of oil. barrel. a
down 60% from this time last year. the commodity route has claimed another victim. in politics in canada. dollar had a stronger, canadian dollar, up a by 0.1%. after the liberal party over encountered one a majority government and monday's national election. bloomberg tv pamela ritchie and more for us from toronto. in canadanew dawn after 10 years of conservative rule. the liberal party has swept in to a majority position and will be rolling of the country. the prime minister, stephen harper, who has presided over the last 10 years resigned. justin trudeau, leader of the youngl party, is the 43-year-old son of a rather famous canadian former prime minister, pieere trudeau.
it was unexpected. the young mr. trudeau had a rough start and pretty much a three-way tie. party doingning quite well in the early stages. a. trudeau not doing well in number of different debates and not sends a front runner. mr. harper holding on to his base. all of that changed in the last couple of weeks and will see a liberal party return to a majority position after 15 years. mr. trudeau ran on a promise of infrastructure spending. canada, although it emerged pretty much unscathed from the great recession, has fallen into a technical recession through much of the first part of this year. the oil price is the main reason. mr. trudeau felt spending was warranted and plans for insertion spending on the course of the next little while. will send a new canadian dollar drop in little against the u.s.
dollar but expected when the stimulus comes on board the economy will pick back up. not expected to last for long. jonathan: dallas pamela ritchie in toronto. the headline, commodity route was pamelahat ritchie in toronto. the headline, commodity rout. obvious what is going on. we are joined by will kennedy, managing editor for energy and commodities and is still with us is james bevan. james, first to you. the financial crisis, could it transform canadian politics? how important is that should in canada? james bevan: commodity crisis is part, connected. this is a really important shift morereat news in toronto broadly, we are going to see a
shift in politics. i've never seen a democracy cope with the sort of market down debt that is required. very challenging. and here we have commodities but also financial repression. and of the shift is what i suspect around the world. jonathan: we discuss u.s. share and $50 crude, what does it mean for canada? is there an extra head went? absolutely, harper was a man of central canada and these huge minds stripping doubt heavy oil. the world's most expensive oil and does not make any sense at $50. a huge amount of energy. caper opposed any emission and that will change unders trudeau and put a price on carbon. jonathan: if i went through sources and looked for canada energy there, i would probably
call you, james bevan. james bevan: i believe that it is history and intentionally redundant because of the economics and the climate change is absolutely is there. jonathan: how on our they do they make the transformation? how does a country like canada transform their economy on the back of what could happen with what we're dependent on -- energy? europe got of the western canada which is dependent on energy sector and urban economy in the east alike of the u.s. and that have a very different outlook. maybe the spending will be good. jonathan: on one hand on a knee-jerk reaction. fiscal spending and monetary policy that is not as loose as many people thought. a stronger canadian dollar. becausetical policies you spend more does not mean it
stimulates. what does it really mean? james bevan: where the money is spent and what you get and how for your buck will be critically important. is very positive. all about trying to invest in the future. it will generate more growth. and hope. is notn: james bevan hoping but he is the canadian official energy bear. and commodity reporter will kennedy. hoping for a quick getaway. shares tomorrow. how it is shaping up. that is next. ♪
jonathan: top stories. david cameron said xi jinping will bring more than 30 billion pounds in deals and investment on its visit to britain. the prime minister's office that it will create almost 4000 jobs. economic data mayo pushed back expectations for the timing of a fed rate hike. one of the things night -- names on wall street that he would welcome it. spend a bloomberg television,
jpmorgan ceo said a move would eliminate uncertainty. when they raise it, normalization is a good thing. it will reduce uncertainty. i will let them pick the time. i think it would be a good thing. brands isyum! preparing to separate chinese and u.s. businesses and a major restructuring. according to people with the knowledge. plans to break up the business could be announced before the end of the month. back to bloomberg television. 40 minutes into the trading session. where the and 40 markets are trading. stocks is hundred, higher up by 0.1%. into are 40 minutes training. where we are on the markets trading. equity benchmark in germany up by 21 points and this morning. the moves across the major
indexes. top stock stories with nejra cehic. nejra cehic: i will start with 2 of the biggest gainers starting , the swisson drugmaker. it raised the most in four months. it raises earnings forecast, lifted by sales of the new drug for lung disease. broaden is looking to with a drug the generated 3/4 a revenue loses protection. that is intercontinental and gaining. it is the world's biggest provider of hotel accommodations. crowne plaza and holiday in. i wonder which of those you stay in? revenuerising after increased in all regions except greater china per it is all gains in europe and middle east
and africa of more than 7% pre-in greater china, room revenue dropped. not a the only company to be facing challenges in china. finally one of the decliners is a swatch group. we have data on swiss watch exports. 0 of swissup 1/1 exports and the biggest decline since 2009. about concerns with a stronger bank and smart watches, apple's more watch, which is making the nation's watch executives the most pessimistic. switch watchmakers are declining. i use a swatch as an example. jonathan: on the stock story. bys full-year sales are up 1/5. revenues in line with estimates. let's bring down the numbers with charles allen. had, i think it
is fair to say, a mixed set of results in retail them online as well. what do these results tell you? send thellen: we're online sector addicted to sales growth. landoll lastith week and sales ahead of expectation. k andgood sales in the u north america. but profitability remains subdued. asos has done a better than others and made a profit. others gift into a loss. simultaneously with that, another increasing capex. capex projected well over 6% and maybe over 70% of sales per jonathan: capital-intensive. for anyone wondering why, why is asos so capital-intensive? charles allen: the warehousing
and software. they hate building new warehouses. they are talking about warehouses britt we will hear about yet another warehouse. software. -- new warehouses and we will hear about yet another warehouse. -- and those software. last year, intangibles. intounta bay if you bought the ipo, a darling of a decade boughtjonathan: if you into the ipo, a darling a decade ago and you would have made a lot of money. going forward, what is left for them? charles allen: it is much tougher. o separate points. the competition with an online only is much greater. another has come from nowhere to in five orhan asos six years for amazon has opened
a big studio today into the fashion world. more competition and finally all of the store based retailers getting their online acted together. where's the biggest challenge -- competitors that look like asos or high street as they got their act together to make a proper, decent shift to online space? charles allen: i think the high street people may be the bigger threat. the attraction of click and collect, you ordered it a go to a store and you can try down immediately and if it does not work, you can change in may be more tractive than having to be a home to get the delivery. is offeringng asos click and collect for jonathan: the delivery asos of technical double amount of capital. indeliver on the same day some places for how are they working around the inability of not the click and collect? : they haveen
selection collection of shops where you can click and collect. apart from that, it it is dependent on delivery and the returns. you cannot try it on. you have to go home and try it and decide what you send back. one of the other things we see if shipping revenue is up. all of the online only companies are beginning to realize free neverng anything is just going to work in terms of profit. lifted minimum order size to get more shipping revenue. jonathan: and get us to spend more. a bloombergn intelligence. on the company story. later, ferrari's final share price ahead of the new york open. to hans nichols. a man who can afford on ferrari.
how much for a slice of ferrari four people not unlike you but for me? for people like the brand, the price is expected at $40-50 two dollars per in italy, reporting it could be on the higher end and could exceeded that. bloomberg news reported a ipo was oversubscribed so it appears the demand will be strong. chrysler,unload fiat the company, the parent company could get $4 billion. they will need the company, a $42 billion euro plan and want to increase and spend morning. money per year your chrysler and mr. marchionne talked about the need for consolidation and brands to come together and work together on meeting these new standards their regulators will be imposing, environmental.
a divergence and the auto industry print see a chrysler saying want to merge and growth and dollars looking for partners. you do not see that elsewhere. jonathan: they are spinning off ferrari. on the it a vw approved sidelines of the vw story, the scandal, a live discussion about what would happen to lamborghini. are they thinking it could then option for those units? volkswagen is not indicating or portraying any problems. ,f you speak the most analysts on the higher end of how much volkswagen is going to need to spend for this scandal, whether $30 billion or $40 billion. arehe high-end, they probably going to need to spin off some brands. bugatti be the khadi or . we have to be clear, we're not
hearing that from the company. in a presentation a couple of weeks ago, they said they were not get rid of some brands. it makes sense, right? that's why the analysts are circled around for why not get rid of -- it is not had a profit since 2007. you look at what bentley is doing. they're operating profit was down 43% last year. novels volkswagen groupies have a truck company, mortar cycle, different brands could be cannibalizing -- whether volkswagen needs to have a truck company, motorcycle company, different brands could be cannibalizing. jonathan: hans nichols area watching this story with close attention. waiting to see if mr. marchionne tries to bring the khadi back. chinese president xi jinping visit enters the first full day,
pricingwill give final details for the new york listing tomorrow. the ipo expected to value ferrari at $12 billion including debt. thes hone in on presidential visits and the u.k.. out to caroline hyde and buckingham palace. day one of the official talks. what top said the agenda? and ceremony. have a look. are building in anticipation. hundreds of chinese nationals tollways in president xi jinping and his wife who will be driving down with prince charles and the state carriage. we are expanding gun salutes and a private lunch with the claim. he jets over to the house of commons. the houses of parliament to speak to mp's and the lords, very rarely is the episode upon of visitors of the united kingdom to stay leaders. showing the extent of how much
of the government and the royal the china'sd to woo leader to bring it 30 billion pounds worth of trade and investment into the united kingdom. really focusing on energy deals, financial deals and later this evening, we understand there will be huge state banquet. cake,s, the icing on the he is staying the night and buckingham palace. we understand the reports in the press, staying in the very suite prince william and the duchess spend their first night of marriage. jonathan: thank you. a very busy day for the chinese president. and a busy day for manus cranny. great to have you with us. what is on the agenda for you? calming to for wishon, what caroline was saying. i can think of sin as much press coverage. -- coming to fruition of what
caroline was saying. i cannot think of us much press coverage. of course obama going to ireland. this blows your socks off. it is about power and not of a leader or of a country that of a currency. of that manrequest coming down the steps with his wife as he arrives here. is about the power of the currency and the destinations that media more than anybody else. the jonathan: and the imbalances in the u.k. the benefits to the city of london and a downside to the north and the steel industry and the political narrative will be pretty interesting. manus: the steel is something cameron said. cameron backtracking very theessively in terms of his
dalai lama. how do you deal with international human rights? you fed so much exposure on a leader. you cannot chastise him in any way free the issues of the rest of the world. i'm calling it in our headlines, a new special relationship. much to the angst of the producer but a new, special, potentially a new special relationship as opposed to the united states. jonathan: manus cranny with "the pulse." monetary policy in focus with john williams of the san francisco federal reserve. to member of the monetary policy committee at 12:00 u.k. time. if you want to talk marcus i am on twitter @ferrotv. the ftse is up 0.2% and the dax is up 16 points.
manus: a new special relationship? china's xi jinping arrives in the u.k. for his historic visit. we're live at buckleham palace. is a hike in sight? san francisco fed president jon williams weighs in on the rate debate in an exclusive interview. commodities crash takes another victim. canada gets a new prime minister in a landslide election victory as the country deals with lower oil prices. welcome to "the pulse" live fr