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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  October 20, 2015 4:00am-5:01am EDT

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manus: a new special relationship? china's xi jinping arrives in the u.k. for his historic visit. we're live at buckleham palace. is a hike in sight? san francisco fed president jon williams weighs in on the rate debate in an exclusive interview. commodities crash takes another victim. canada gets a new prime minister in a landslide election victory as the country deals with lower oil prices. welcome to "the pulse" live from bloomberg's european
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headquarters in london. i'm manus cranny. now china's president xi jinping landed in the u.k. last night to a red carpet reception. and it is perhaps not surprising that he is being given a royal welcome. david cameron said the visit will bring more than 30 billion pounds of worth of deals and investments. caroline hyde joins us. good day to you. president xi will meet the queen later today. tell me about the financial benefits, the deal that we expect to be announced. caroline: you said it. 30 billion pounds worth. almost 4,000 jobs. almost every industry group can be a winner here. they are able to access the consumers in china more. structure within this visit. we understand xi jinping will be traveling to manchester. it is going to be energy
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winning out. i'm sure it is going to be finance winning out as well. energy. we're hearing over the potential deals, money coming in to help finance but also design, build nuclear reactors here in the united kingdom. we're expecting chinese companies to come into those deal and expecting the financial sector, the foreign urrency element of london. we dominate that space. ho% of the market. -- 40% of the market. people's bank of china is selling debt. the first time ever denominated in yuan abroad. they are doing it in london. sovereign debt to be sold in london as well. yuan-denominated debt. all of this showing what the financial sector can win out and hopefully it will start to rebalance things in the rest of europe. we are in deficit when it comes to our chinese trade.
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we're $30 billion in deficit because we import far more than we export. manus: give me a sense of what pomp and ceremony they are going to have in the house behind you? it?s a small house, isn't caroline: the red carpet being rolled out. get a sense of the anticipation. if you pan to my left, you'll see hundreds of chinese nationals are coming already to wave in president xi jinping. we understand prince charles will be there and he will meet for a private wluverage the queen and the houses of parliament, the lords and the m.p.'s he will be speaking with this afternoon and then a state banquet and even then he stays the night with the queen in buckingham palace and of course beside
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they will be in manchester, seeing the stadium home to manchester city. he will be going with david cameron and also visiting with george osbourne. imperial university. this is about seeing the technology companies and tech talents and signing deals worth 30 billion pounds. this is about the government really trying to woo. after remember what has been a difficult time after the prime minister met with the dalai lama, the spiritual leader of ticket. -- tibet. we might see protests, concerns about human rights in china and animal rights in china and of course what they are doing the steel industry here. imports come in, cheap steel imports from china. it may be a tough discussion but i think for the time david cameron is putting out the positive when it comes to the relationship. back to you.
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manus: caroline hyde outside buckingham palace. e're joined by allianz's chief investment officer. it has all the pomp and ceremony. is this about our trade relationship? what do they get out of it? they get credibility. >> exactly. we are seeing the birth of new currency. really not quite coming of age but getting to a stage where it will be closer to being able to float freely and become a true, true world currency. we're not quite there yet. we saw that in august with the changes of the central parity rate which then led to upset everywhere around the world. we have got somewhere to go. we are very close. we have november 1, i think, we have -- so we're very close. manus: the u.s. treasury
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department put out a statement. our judgment is that it remains below its appropriate evaluation. this is a generosity from the americans. they are supporting it at the moment. will they continue? do you see a movement? do you see a further devaluation, evaluation, take your pick on the word. >> we don't know and they don't know themselves what the equilibrium wait is yet. -- rate is yet. they need to get it to a level where by they need not support it and then we'll see. it seems it is slightly below where it is at the moment. manus: i want to put up the graphic that we had up there for a moment. is there a moment in time when they want to move on it and
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there has been some substantial moves in term turnovers stocks. the yellow line, the commodities. we did get the growth since 2009 which we think is probably a real number. we think bloomberg 6.6%. just on the turn of lacking. >> we are. that was the biggest issue in august was not a small move that was made. it was what then opened up as far as the potential large devaluation that we were talking about, 20%. and also what it meant as far as the economy was concerned because nobody really believes these numbers. manus: you have two facts at the top of your notes. china. in interpret of corporate and exports for the u.s. >> it is still very small. we're talking about 1% of the exports. but the economy is now 15% of
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the world. the population is 20% of the world. and so we know in time it is going to be more significant for us all and we can see in the financial market it is having a bigger impact on global markets than it has had. that means that we need to be far more aware of what's happening in china than we used to be as far as growth, corporate profit and particularly the currency. manus: you're going stay with us. we have a little bit more to get to. mcdonald's chief investment allianz. al stephen harp we are a surprise majority. justin trudeau's victory marks comeback political n the country's history. $6 billion to a u.s. hedge fund
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client in june before recovering the money later. a junior member of the fx sales team used a gross mig rather than a net figure prompting a bigger payment. san francisco fed president jon williams sees reason to increase rates soon and slowly. he said the central bank is progressing toward a mandate in stable prices and maximum employment. >> we want to get this just right, and that means probably in my view, moving a little bit earlier and then moving more rage -- gradually and weight -- waiting longer than moving rapidly. manus: we're going to talk monetary policy in the u.k. at 11:00 today, tune in. exclusive interview
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john fero.
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>> so the fed, when they raise, raise an interest rate is a good thing and will actually reduce uncertainty. i will let them pick the time when they do it but the facts is i think it will be a good hing, not a bad thing.
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manus: that was jamie dimon speaking in an exclusive interview saying that the fed rate debate also sat with san francisco fed president jon williams. he said the u.s. central bank should raise rates in the near future. >> my view is that some of the slowdown in jobs is really because of the strength in the dollar and other things and other factors. i'm not so worried about the slowdown and some of the recent data. again, it is supportive of continuing to improve in the labor market. >> the g.d.p. tracker suggests we're going to see 0.9, .9% of a growth for the third quarter. is that too low? do you need to see something higher in order to support the case for higher rates? >> my mantra is not to get too caught up into the onth-on-month.
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of course there is some payback in the third quarter. my view is it will be about 2% rowth on an annual rate. you don't want to get caught up on this month's data or the quarter data. for 2016 r forecast for the first half or for the entire year come down with the slowing in growth this fall? >> no, in fact my forecast in term turnovers unemployment rate has come down a little bit because we have seen unemployment come dawn quicker than expected. also other indicators in the labor market have continued to improve at a really healthy clip. my view of the g.d.p. growth next year is for growth to be around 2.25%. inflation will come back to 2% over the next couple of years. that hasn't changed. the near term inflation outlook has been held down by the strength of the dollar and oil. >> where does it leave you in having a decision to raise rates by the on the other hand
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this year. you said you expected that to happen as sf the data come in as you forecast. >> this is my own view on this. i expect to see unemployment get down to about 5% and dip below that later this year or early next year. i expect to see continuing signs that inflation is stabilized and may be underlying moving back to 2%. zero interest rates, in the extraordinary accommodation we have in place i don't think is necessary to support growth. i think the time to start raising growth in the future in my perspective. we'll watch all the data i hear from all of my colleagues and contacts in the community. manus: great interview there. you want to stay with bloomberg, because later today we'll speak with the bank of england's lone dissenter. that is at 12 noon with jonathan ferro.
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lucy, listening to williams there, in the near future -- in the near future, it is all data dependent but he is clearly aligning himself in the hawkish camp. where do you stand in the great debate? >> well, it looks as if since it is last -- a balanced adjustment, we now have monetary conditions which are slightly more favorable for raising. precisely e're where we are with a different balance. so we're still around 50/50. they probably don't know themselves yet. manus: they had a pretty bad reporting season. >> they would very much appreciate to have a margin. manus: let's talk about some of your big cause. you took some money off health care. you're not running to buy energy. but if the opportunity presents itself, you would.
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you have some conviction calls. we have u.b.s. i like that name. sergio to go see monti in a couple weeks. are they the leader in that group for you? >> we like wealth management. look at morgan stanley's results. it is doing well. that seems to us to be a q.e. beneficiary. also there is a trend in asia for more assets that need managing. it seems to be a structural trend. u.b.s. has a brand which has survived throughout the financial crisis. everything that they and others were involved in were the brand that still has credibility and they are gaining market shares. that is part of it that we like. we're not keen on investment banking and that is the reason why we're we're happy that we are -- manus: i want to recap some of the headlines that we had from the e.c.b. and get your take on them.
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they released this report a few minutes ago and basically said that banks ease lending standards to companies in the third quarter. they say q.e. has had a net ing impact on the credit standards in the third quarter and here is the golden ticket. e.c.b. bank reports rising demands for company loans and for mortgages. this is nirvana, isn't it? >> not quite yet. it is a step in the right direction. it is not we have been -- we have seen some pickup in lending over the past six months in europe. previous to that, interest rates were very low but there was no confidence and there was really no activity. we're talking, you know, very small numbers. but it is moving in the right direction. if we can continue on this path, and we need need more q.e. , but that seems to be available, then we can see if this recovery can be -- and
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little bit of -- because at the moment, you can barely see it. manus: you have to stay with me. we're going to talk canada and commodities in a very short time. mcdonald from allianz global investors. 6 billion. yep, that's right. $6 billion, oh, to be the man or whom that pressed that. we'll take a look at deutsche bank's costly mistake. coming up next. ♪
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manus: welcome back. this is "the pulse" live on bloomberg television, radio, also streaming on your tablet, on your phone and on troubles in an apparent error. deutsche bank reportedly sent about $ billion to a u.s. hedge fund client in june. before recovering the money a day later. here is hans nichols. hans, this is a pretty significant amount of money to send to the wrong destination for anyone. hans: i think that is correct. we have $6 billion. it was trovered next day. the financial times initially broke this story. we should give them credit. i want to show you what the receipt did when they reported it. this is one way to see what
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foreign things are doing. take a look at this when it was published. it recovered in the same way that deutsche bank recovered some of that $6 billion payment. what this had to do with is at the end of the day, banks figure out their processing claims. they did this, usually they are supposed to do it on a net basis. at this the point, they a junior trader did it on a gross basis. the next day the money was returned. the c.e.o. laid out on sunday night a total reshuffle. lots of musical chairs. colin was the head of the investment bank. he will be leaving. jeff irwin will be taking head of that, kind of revamped unit. lots of changes there. one other quick note of this. the head of societe generale gave an interview talking about how you still need to have five or six big european banks for
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european lending. ma us in, you're starting to hear concerns about what european banks are doing and whether or not these capital requirements are too sten youous. manus: that is going to be the big issue. whether you create a weakened playing field between the europeans and the americans. hans, thanks for running us through on the fx issues at deutschea. -- deutsche. commodities, it has claimed another victim. canada has a new prime minister. stin trudeau's labor party against harper's plans. it was triggered by the collapse in the oil prices. lucy mebbed is still with us. this is a big thing. the sequence consequences, the real global consequences of commodity crush. justin trude noh power with a backlash against austerity.
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you have a norwegian stepping into the sovereign wealth fund. consequences here, are we looking at something more substantial? >> it is improvement in consumption which we were hoping to see and it has not come through yet. you ought to begin to see that coming through. in the u.s. we really haven't seen that. that's what we're watching the the potential upside from it. it is still commodity producing. nations are still saying there is some momentum in their g.d.p. that is not going to change. for the moment because china is the biggest consumer of these commodities and 50% of the demand in many of these commodities. manus: let me bring you in. we're back at $45 on crude. we have seen this little bit of a -- go through the market
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again in the past 24 hours. these commodities and oil simply don't have a firm footing. there is wrangling going on at opec as well. >> this is the world's most expensive oil. incredibly expensive to produce, maybe $100 a barrel. it makes no economic sense, these prices and is one more example how the oil crash is making -- making producing countries week and consuming countries strong. manus: there is the argument that the looney or the canadian dollar actually strengthens because this delays any rate cut by the canadians. >> could very well be. manus: ok. very short and thank you very much, will, for coming down ant and lucy. next up on "the pulse," will driverless vehicles mean the death of the car insurance industry? my next c.e.o. would probably
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abhor the thought but it might do something for his margins. we'll talk the improvement in road safety. driverless cars and cyberrisk. ♪
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we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. manus: welcome back. we're live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i'm manus cranny. time to get you up to speed with our latest headlines. a warning, there is flash photography. david cameron says xi jinping will bring more than 30 billion pounds in deals and investments to the u.k. the prime minister's office said that will create almost 4,000 jobs. the u.k. is striking an ccommodative tone.
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san francisco fed president john williams sees a reason to increase rates soon and slowly. he said the central bank is progressing towards its dual mandate. and maximum employment. >> we want to get this just right. that means in my view moving earlier and moving more gradually than waiting longer and moving rapidly. manus: canada's liberal party ousted steeve harper. justin trudeau has the biggest political comeback in the country's history. those are your top headlines. let's get up to speed with the markets. we have managed to eke out a gain. take us through. >> i had positive changes. take a look at this.
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the stoxx 600 fell out of bed at exactly 9:00 a.m. this morning. we were down .06%. who are the culprits? oil and gas companies and basic resources down more than 1%. basic resources is a metals company there, down by more than 2%. so let's talk about where some of the strength is in the market. intercontinental hotel group. look at it up. one of its best days in recent memory. coming in at up 4.8% year-on-year. that was a surprise. western europe, europe in particular, a surprising 7.8% up year-on-year. china is still a problem in places like hong kong, but overall this was a beat and a confident outlook. a hotel provider and restaurant provide tearned place where you get your coffee, also up this morning. providing support for the market.
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one more thing we have to check on is the pair right here. it is an increasingly popular pair. third most traded pair on the system this morning. it has been strengthening, making it very difficult for the british prime minister to criticize the chinese leader 2k3wi67b that the chinese currency -- given that the chinese currency has strengthened. if the chinese leader was paying for his hotel room or room another buckingham palace tonight, and we know he is not, it would still be a little cheaper than it was two months ago. back to you. manus: all said an done at 9:00 a.m. it was the commodities what done it. ryan chilcote. thank you very much. the innovation of driverless car -- they are being tested on public roads. they could reduce the risk of accidents and in term claims .
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what does this mean for the future of the insurance industry? who better to talk about than the direct line, paul joins us. welcome to "the pulse." i notice your stock is still flying. just off record highs. the average u.k. auto insurance rose in the second quarter, the third quarter. we're seeing a good time. when i look at your brand, 46% of this is motor in terms of revenue. 28% is home and commercial. we're very familiar with your brand. >> we have different brands for a clear reason. not all customers are the same. people like us, busy, high expectations of service, all things sorted out immediately. my mom would want to chat somebody. my nephew would want a low price. we have different brands serving different customer needs that want to buy in ifferent ways.
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we have a collection of brands. our brands, measures are good. skills are otor good. we're meet customer needs every day. manus: i recently experienced your brand. i used your brand. i was blown away. you blew the competition. you caused the competition to absolutely drop their price like a stone. me. says of two things to one, i should be worried about your margin or theirs. are getting into a real pricing war in the u.k. auto industry? >> well, a couple of things to say. first of all, we all -- we probably have a different view on your risk cost. i have million s of claims which i model and try work out what is it about drivers that have more or less claims. i look at your age and car type
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and address. i might think your risk is less than them. it is really, really competitive. you slip on the tv now, there are comparison websites to save you money. that means we have to be all very, very competitive. we need to keep our costs down and it also means people are prepared to pay a bit extra for a better brand. really you should have come us to. manus: next year. next year. talking about the data, you stay data you have will help you price in a different way. talk to me about big data. are you prepared to make acquisitions in big data? what does big data mean? >> as an insurance industry, we have been a big data industry for a long time. illions of claims. we have about 200 people in our pricing department crunching the data trying to work out the
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rating factors. now there is a new thing in town. telematics. it is a whole new source of data. it tells me where you as an individual, when you drive, where you drive, how you drive. a librarian who drives a volvo -- manus: i'm going want value for that. >> right upfront, if you're a young driver, we'll give you a 20% discount. hundreds of pounds off. if you drive badly, we'll give you feedback. we can spot from the data, mountainsor data. have cracked the code on what makes a bad drive. we can give that customer some feedback. a renewal, even though telematics drivers drive better, they improve their performance knowing they are being monitored. we have a 40% price difference between best and the worst. manus: you see a bickup of that? >> half -- pickup of that? manus: is apple going to
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develop a new car. i was watching the news yesterday. there was a very small car. where are we in that in terms of shiftsing your business. we're not at driverless cars yet but there are significant improves. >> it is a long-term trend. cars have been getting safer for a while. probably in your car today you'll have cruise control and you may have a car that parks itself. this is a continuum. we are at the forefront of this. we are about to launch some specific pricing for people with this next generation of autonomous breaking. we are using the telematics data. quarters no steering wheels, there is a lot of practical and legal issues to get that to happen. they will still have accidents and we still think there are be insurers. number of ing with a
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bodies. manus: let's talk about the future. there has been a huge amount of hubris in your business. i looked at motor and home and commercial. it didn't come to fruition. -- uestion have you thought did you think about lifting the phone to stephen haseker. annoy you know him and say that blew up. even scale.arkets we have strong reserves. strong balance sheet. a strong capital. we're in a great position. we don't need the distraction of a big deal. pairing als, we have telematics. manus: wouldn't it -- it wouldn't appeal to you? >> we are focused on the brands
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nd florists. really their sweet spot is a bigger commercial. manus: if you're not in the big ticket deals, do you think there will be more big deals? >> it is more pronounced in the higher ticket stuff. there should be some logic for deals. doing car insurance and home insurance, it is an increasingly tough thing to do. keeping one customer needs. there should be some logic. history would say there haven't been that many deals in our space. manus: have you seen stephen? >> i see him. he is a great boss of mine and dining great job. manus: thank you so much for coming in. i will go back. maybe i'll get a surprise discount. thank you so much. c.e.o. of direct line insurance group. what is up next on "the pulse"?
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the chinese president xi jinping arrives in london. we'll discuss its potential for a new special relationship. ♪
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manus: david cameron says chinese president xi jinping will bring more than 30 billion pounds of deals and investments
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on this visit to britain this week. the prime minister's office said that will create almost 4,000 jobs. the chinese president received the uxly treatment on his u.k. visit, we have been speaking to a business that calls chinese commerce among its most important clients. her odd's c.e.o. explains how it is important to attract the chinese consumers to his business. >> there is not a moment that the chinese are not shopping. they have the lowest percentage of passports of any nation as travelers so the potential for he future is enormous. 74% growth across the whole of europe in china's shoppers. 4% in the u.k. so this we are welcoming of the chinese visitor is not translating into cash in the tills all across europe. one or two things i want, one,
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ither the rest of europe adopt s biometric testing so we have a level playing field or we take it away or we find some way as making it easier for the chinese to visit us on a regular basis. >> give us a sense how you have this knowledge base. just how important is the chinese buyer to harrods at the moment? >> 10 years ago, it was unimportant. it was a fraction. today the chinese spend five times more than our american customers do. and not only that, it is much higher average transaction value. o on every metrix, the the chinese customer is the most important customer that london today. od's has
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manus: we're joined now from hong kong by tim soppers. thank you so much for joining us. we just listened to the c.e.o. of harrod's talk about the value of the chinese, what they spend when they come. how much more important that relationship with the consumer is versus the american 10 years on. how important is the chinese relationship to david cameron and britain? >> i think what we'll see over the next few days is see as xi jinping visits the u.k., this is a big opportunity to send important messages. we'll see that the u.k. government wants to have a strong and positive relationship with china. a platform for cooperation in all sorts of areas. at the forefront of that will be trade, investment rs commercial benefits to the u.k. it will extend more widely as well in the areas like education and science and so on. so i think the message from london is this is a really important relationship at the
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moment. manus: there was a great article this morning and it says using commerce to spread the economic political really , we're seeing where this is about using the depths of their pocket to really make sure their currency exceeds the power, isn't it? >> i think there is a number of things perhaps the same response to that. i think actually the commercial drivers are not necessarily so much from the top. they are from bottom up. talking about the chinese consumer. we're talking to about individual chinese traveling overseas to buy more. we're talking about individual relationships. what commercial interest the chinese company are. we shouldn't think investment is some sort of political gift. it serves the commercial interest of chinese companies. to go back a couple of years
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ago, a month ago, you mentioned that after cameron met with the dalai lama, there was a freeze in relations. during that period the commercial relationship continued to grow. i think the commercial relationship is very much organic, bottom up driven. if anything it is the governments who are piggy backing on that rather than the other way around. manus: tell me. you mentioned the dalai lama. obviously there is this ongoing question in regards to china's human rights and their track record is not good. the question i then have is this great gesture of political symbolism that we're seeing over these next four days and economic benefits, how is that going to impact britain's relationship with the other major geopolitical partners? i'm thinking specifically to have united states on this one. >> i think this is a tricky
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challenge for british diplomacy actually. london has got to get the right sort of balance between seeking improved relations with china, maintaining existing important relationships with the u.s., working out what to do about its position on the european other emerging economies, the indias and the middle easts of this world. there is a tricky balancing act to get right. i think london has to be careful not to push too much to sort of single track economic discourse with china to balance those relationships and bring in the other issues which are clearly of importance to the u.k. and u.k. popular opinion. the news yesterday in the united kingdom were amaze with very real stories. steel industry is under pressure. more closures and job
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losses and there is dumping from china. this is something cameron said he will raise but does he -- you know, i have got to say. i'm a great skeptic on well, does it matter at this stage because he rant really done enough to prevent dumping in the first place. isn't this just tokenism? >> i think the steel story is probably an old story that has just come to the foreduring this visit because it seems an it. tune moment to raise i think the reality is you talk about british government raising issues with the chinese government. the reality is the world has changed over the last decade. china has become more powerful and influential primaryfully economic areas but also in other areas too. power has shifted and it has shifted in relative terms away from europeans towards the emerging economies of asia and china is at the forefront of those. the british government like other governments has choice to make. do you try to resist that?
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can you resist that if you want to or do you acknowledge this is the world that we live in and you try to make the best you can out of it all the while keeping in mind some sort of conception of what the national interest is. it seems to me the message out of london is yeah, china matters. we have to deal with china ly than we rent might have done in the past. manus: thank you so much for joining us this morning. i suppose you're quite right. nobody will disagree that china matters. it is just a question of what price are you prepared to pay to do business with them. tim somers joining us from hong kong. .hose were the word avid cameron paid a high price over human relations we'll come
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back with an interview of the lone dissenter. he joins us at 12 noon with jonathan ferro. ♪
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>> i can again speculate on what my views are for that meeting again. we start with the process of the deep dive briefings, start tomorrow for us. i spent a whole week preparing for the meeting.
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we'll get a lot of terrels. i'm not going to decide on that today. manus: that was san francisco fed president john williams clining to say how he will vote at the next fomc meeting. we have another exclusive today. jonathan ferro is here with a little bit more. our interview is what? jonathan: ian mccafferity. manus: let's talk about the federal reserve. there is no shock really that williams, you know, is going on side with his masters. jonathan: the fundamental debate of the federal reserve now is going to the end of the year given that market pricing is nowhere to be seen. will they go against the market and surprise the market? a lot of people doubt that. when you have a 30% chance of a
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move in december, they need to reshape expectations soon, quick and do it sharp. that is not happening now. manus: there are only two more .etors key data when i say key data, i mean, excuse me, you have two more you have november and december payrolls. many will say there are idiosyncrasies in there. here is no inflation in there. jonathan: the same argument in u.k. you have to look at a similar set of data for an inflation rate that are very low. this man is already voting for a rate hike. the conversation i'm going to have with him is why and how close is that becoming? manus: be l they go if the fed don't go? that is the big question. whether they have the ability to move ahead of the federal reserve. john is going to be around for a little bit more. we have bloomberg radio, "the first word" is up next and for
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ur viewers, it is global surveillance with guy johnson and tom kean in new york later on. don't miss his interview with fomc member at 12 noon. ♪
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>> the golden era. china's president starts his weeklong visit to the u.k.. david cameron looks forward to nearly $50 billion worth of deals. slow and steady. the president of san francisco's federal reserve -- we give you an exclusive interview with john williams. and canada votes and justin audeau swept into office with


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