tv On the Move Bloomberg October 28, 2015 4:00am-5:01am EDT
barclays finally getting a chief executive. is it the worst kept secret in the city of london? let's see the market opened with caroline. caroline: no call for any moves. europeee the moves for here two days of decline. the ftse holding its breath ahead of the federal reserve. we will seeability any move today. the first rate hike since 2006 continuing to be delayed as global growth continues to falter. concerns over in china. today completely flat when you're looking at the ftse 100. france utterly flat. the decisions that come out after european close at 6:00 p.m. today. in theh risk-taking
equity markets ahead of that move. let's look at one currencies. dollar coming off of its high. we are basically flat. more feeling that the rate hike will be delayed. putting pressure on the dollar downward. the global gauge of exchange rate volatility. headed for its biggest monthly decline since february. is starting desk volatility in the fx market is starting to dwindle. euro on the downside. a little bit higher against the dollar but we are remaining at one dollar 1050. a glut in the oil market. $50 now.ll below let's have a look. we have an update on barclays. we will see if we've got the
stoxx there. .25%.ys down about he was three decades at jpmorgan. he was passed over to take over jamie dimon's job. jamie dimon is still there. he made over to a hedge fund instead. december 1 he will take the helm at barclays. hurdle for final this particular appointment. up by 20%. statoil up. you saw what oil was doing today. the pain from loyal -- from lower oil prices continues. heineken up 3%. big feet and there -- big feat in their earnings overall.
volkswagen, they are breaking. jonathan: they are indeed breaking. the first quarterly loss in more than 15 years. it is worse than expected. let's head out and bring in on's nichols. -- bring in on's nichols. nichols. hans: the operating profit loss is operating bigger. bigger.n these numbers are going to be chuckling through of just how big volkswagen's challenges going to be. the numbers are important. they are bad. in some ways, what may be more calltant at the conference with the ceo will get on, answer some questions. analysts will be grilling him.
do not have a solid idea of what this is going to cost them and what their actual technical fixes will entail. -- two later, the one point 2.8 and the 1.6. these have been bouncing around. 2015 will be the same as 2014. not overly surprising. we've got a good sense of where they are heading. there waiting to see what october numbers are. in september, they lost a little bit of market share about 1% in the european market. we will see if that number continues to decline. one thing that was not affected, sales of audi. are as well as porsche propagators for the volkswagen group. -- our profit getters for volkswagen group. jonathan: these numbers are not good to help. the stock is down by 2%. that is the initial knee-jerk reaction.
nevermind the scandal, the company needs to have a review now. what takes place? what the expected happened? honcho -- hans: they need to figure out what their fuel oxygen mix will be on technology. among germannse manufacturing's -- manufacturers that when toyota shifted -- that bet may still play out. with regulatory risk. they need to figure out what their strategy is in terms of what kind of engines they are going to be building. it is good to be all electric. that is a bit of a test. dietz speaking in toyota earlier today, he did not bow,
but he did apologize. have a listen. >> on behalf of our inside properties, i would like to apologize. havegize for actions that went against everything our companies and its people stand for. hans: you may be reading the numbers on your bloomberg terminal. do we have anything for third-quarter revenue? jonathan: a series of negative headlines. priced cliche is the oil in is never the oil price in. you looking the volkswagen stock market, it seems to be a different number. we are looking over the last three days, i can tell you it is not that much of a move when you're looking at the volkswagen share price.
currently down by 1% over the course of the last three trading days. we are seeing an erosion once again in the market capitalization on a volkswagen. look at how much the stock has fallen over the course of this year. we are 50% of the high that we back in march of 2015. the pain has been felt. at the moment we are seeing a decline in volkswagen stock market this morning. you are seeing one billion euros . it is moment, it seems not that much of a significant move. jonathan: no significant move in the stock market. volkswagen increases third-quarter provisions for the diesel scandal. the operating loss for the third quarter is 3.48 billion euros. the estimate was for a loss of
3.27. the profit target has been cut for this year. the target says earnings dropped significantly. but parker, the senior advisor to credit suisse. bob parker, great to have you with us. -- is then officials damage done? as a potential investor what is your reaction? bob: we do not know what the provisions will be. 6 billion euros that they have announced so far. there is a lot of evidence to suggest it is not. the second uncertainty is how long will the regulatory investigations take. let's not forget one makes a comparison with the problem that bp had in the gulf of mexico. that take seven or eight years -- that took seven or eight years to resolve. i think it is naive to assume that this is going to resolve
quickly. the other uncertainty is what is the damage to volkswagen's brand? how does that translate into a decline in sales? i ask you the question, would -- would you buy a volkswagen diesel? i suspect the answer is no. look at thei september numbers, what we do see is sales -- jonathan: if i look at the september numbers, what we do see its sales up. companies that go through these are forced to get smaller because they have to sell assets. do you expect the same thing to volkswagen? they are competing with toyota as the biggest carmaker in the
world. they have a deficit five portfolio of brands. porsche and audi. also there are the smaller brands as well, like lamborghini . the italian brands. that very diversified portfolio i suspect overtime, as the provisions get bigger, there will have to be some disposal. you clearly mentioned bp. which look at companies have had regulatory problems over the years, not just bp, the overall theme has been very significant increase in provisions. number two, it takes time to resolve this. i come back to my earlier comment that it is naive to assume that this will be resolved quickly. inevitably, there is going to be some shrinkage. what is going to be the largest packaker in the years time
-- years time. it is probably going to be toyota. the theory has been clear. what is also been clear, a company that is taken severe damage. for the rest of germany, is there a cross -- is there hysteria? bob: to what extent will the problem in volkswagen impact the growth in the german economy? previously i thought the german economy would accelerate to 2% less growth by the first quarter -- by the first quarter of next year. just the volkswagen affect, one has to look at the capital goods the sector in germany. and the impact of the emerging markets slowdown. the conclusion is within the first quarter of next year, german growth does not get to 2%.
jonathan: good morning. welcome back to bloomberg tv. -- 15 minutes into the session this morning. barclays down by 29%. that company gets a new boss. jpmorgan baker just taylor that's just taylor -- joining me now is stephen morris. bob and i has been saying it is the worst kept secret in the city of london. the regulator gives it a stamp of approval. stephen: they would have met and barclays has an obligation to announce they have finally given the nod. the history and their plans for barclays. -- i sat i set down down with the chairman for barclays spirit he wanted someone was important. he didn't want leftovers.
a lot of people sit here and wonder what is good to happen to the investment bank. is it bob diamond. is it a man that knows the investment bank? and when he lifts the lid -- stephen: he spoke to the reporters last thursday. he is -- he has run wealth management and private banks. he has brought experience. -- he sent a day one memo to staff pledging to move with a less intensive model. he basically told the investment bank we have enough time. jonathan: this is the difference between bob diamond and jes does that make them the same man. this could be a very different strategy.
has some very profitable units. there would stick with the after strategy. that is going to be a growth area. the corporate bank and the corporate bank in the u.k.. there is going to be some shrinkage. they are going to be quite ruthless on the investment bank. areas of the investment bank which are doing really well. we don't need that high level of capital. jonathan: the regulator, ex american, this time around was different? bob: we have seen a general change in tone. george osborne is making friendlier noises.
really, i guess barclays persuaded regulators that it doesn't require someone with deep knowledge. jonathan: we always want the comparison, the bank -- what the bank might look like. who does barclays start to look like as they shaped this bank? bob: they've got the credit card situation. i assume they will keep that on hold. it is also unusual, because they've got the africa operation. i am told that is going to be boosted. they are going to shrink and dispose of the european retail branch network. it has not been capital proficient. let's not forget barclays acquisition of the american
,peration of lehman brothers that has been a successful acquisition. overall, that was a good acquisition. coming out of the bank from lehman brothers. i think you'll see probably -- i don't think you can compare barclays. you've got those other tears of africa, capital light investment u.k. and a reasonable corporate operation. junk up gentlemen, think you very much. jes staley, welcome to the city -- jonathan: gentlemen, thank you very much. jes staley, welcome to the city of london. a rate hike this year. is that drifting toward 2016? that discussion next. ♪
bob parker still with us. steve saywell, 4% chance for a move. 35% in december. does the fed have a job to bring all of that back in? steven: tough question. we think there is 0% chance of a move today. we would argue increasingly in december as well. our view is on march. i think as far as today is concerned, the word i would use its stock. the key point we would highlight is we look for both economy and labor markets to be downgraded from the fed perspective. they will probably keep expectations for december alive, but clearly that's not want to happen. we do not think we are going to get a clear signal from the fed.
jonathan: everyone goes do it and we talk about federal reserve to medications. whether the federal reserve has lost its way? i would play devil's advocate and say maybe that is what they are trying to do. has a: i think the fed huge problem in communicating its policy. last year when we had the pmi states, there was a clear argument for stopping quantitive easing. the risk of a year ago was the u.s. economy was showing some signs of over easing. now we have the pmi down to 52 or worse. the fed has two problems, headline inflation is close to zero. if we do get enough take an inflation, there is going to be the second half of 2016. the inflation will be very minor. the second problem is the production data is very weak.
whether they elude to it to not -- or not today. one has to recognize the probability of the u.s. oil trending less than much higher. the fed might think that is not a problem. how do they communicate that ideally they want to raise interest rates but at a later stage? jonathan: more action from the ecb press but on the other side of the trade, no action from the federal reserve. what does that mean? steven: we think the dollar is still going up. a lot of central banks have been hoping for the fed to hike rates. agreementto be in that those hopes are being dashed. that puts more pressure on the central banks to ease policy. we think the ecb will ease in
december. i would also argue that beyond that there is potential for commodity bloc. we think the rba will cut rates next month as well. we think norway will cut again. canada cut again as well too. if we don't get policy by higher rates in the u.s., we will get policy divergence by lower rates elsewhere. jonathan: i know march 2016, where does it go now? how much further out? think the fed will raise res in 2016 but it will be very late and very slow. the other central banks will follow easier monetary policies. jonathan: bob parker, great to have you with us. steven saywell is good to stay with us.
jonathan: good morning. welcome back to bloomberg tv. this is "on the move." i am jonathan ferro live from the city of london. 30 minutes into the equity session here in london. the dax also higher this morning. volkswagen stock actually trading higher. despite a series of negative headlines. let's get straight to it with caroline hyde. riksbank has no change. ofare seeing a record low minus. we are seeing weakening a little
bit. up about .1%. spiking that much higher. we are seeing continued weakening in the cronin there. no move, still negative. look at it first test look at it versus the euro. -- look at it versus the euro. inflationll seeing going. the target is 2%. but when you get consumer prices , there is still a challenge. the swedish central bank is trying to fight the ecb. the ecb promising further stimulus. what can be seen with the spout. the repo rate can be cut further. they see inflation rate at 1.9% for 2015. they see it continuing to increase up to 2% next year.
jonathan: the stennis effect, the reason we are seeing a much weaker swedish krona in the market. the riksbank plans to buy government bonds. an interesting dynamic happening in sweden. gdp is pretty strong. inflation remarkably low tiered that is why the krone's hat -- the krone is reacting. gdp is holding up. those are the kind of questions i will be asking the governor of riksbank. miss that interview later on this morning. joining us, steven saywell. a really interesting situation. them ofer accusing being state of monetarist. no one can accuse them of holding back, candidate yoko --
in -- the key thing here sweden is inflation or lack of it. growth has been holding up ok. doing well buten it is focused on inflation. they were thrown a lifeline at the last meeting. that has given some breathing space. policy rates further. jonathan: explaining the asset -- it was a lot bigger than a lot of people expected. when they do that, why are they doing it? gdp is holding up. they seem to be responding to what is happening in the fx market in response to the ecb. other running a risk of an exigent at some point around the corner? -- of an accident at some point around the corner? steven: i think your comparison with the ecb is really an
important factor. because the ecb is going out there and being very dovish, we expect them to ease further in-depth -- and november. it puts pressure on the other central banks to do the same thing, especially those in europe. .witzerland, norway and sweden in that perspective, as the ecb eases policy, you've got to suggest if these other central banks don't do that, their currencies depreciate. jonathan: the currency war they don't want to talk about. defensiveness when, the experience with negative rates, is that something that president draghi looks toward? do we need to start thinking about that in the eurozone? steven: that may be something to focus on. our view of bnp paribas is there will be easing in december. we would not rule out a lower
policy rate from the ecb now. in the past, the ecb has made it clear we are at a limit there. things are changing. they could go even more negative on that front. jonathan: friday, bank of japan, dollar yen. where does this go next? make,: the point i would we do not expect from the bank of japan, the fx market is pushed in the other way. opposite.got the the market is -- according to our positioning analysis. what that means is dollar yen is super bowl double -- is super vulnerable. if you pulls out one on friday, we could see a very big move in dollar again, because the market is falling the wrong way.
jonathan: here is a question to spent two people inside of japan, they are not expected much. the trading floors of frankfurt, that is where the expectation lies. that isthe story driving the boj? steven: politics have changed in japan. there has been a lot of pressure on the government to ease policy , to get inflation up. they have done that. they had eased very significantly. the government is now pretty happy with the level of dollar yen. from 122 125. the pressure has been removed from the government. the problem that the bank of japan still has is the inflation target. they are likely going to have to push their timing. that is where we could get a
surprise from the bank of japan. sucker for anyone trying to read --s market in japan jonathan: for anyone trying to read this market in japan, should we be looking toward what is happening in china? what is the most important trade? steven: it is probably going to be euro yen. this is where you going to get the big policy move. we expect the business from the ecb. we expect there's going to be more easing there. here is whation will the japanese dude? nothing? or do they surprises? the yen could respond significantly to a surprise where it is not good to move much from no change. jonathan: thanks for joining us. speaking of positioning, the swedish krona weaker. reversing those losses.
central bank takes rates unchanged. it expands the qe project. -- where we are not that flat is the equity market. is counting down three of them. caroline: how can you pick three? i picked one that is at a record high. heineken. third biggest brewer in the world. 4.3% higher this morning. white? very strong -- why? very strong numbers. the revenue increasing. a lot of organic basis. stripping out m&a and fx. fuelingincreasing 7.5% the stocks at the moment. the cma, the regulator here the
u.k., the capital market authority is giving the initial thumbs up to bp and the ease deal. they are saying they act in different areas of the market. yes you're creating the biggest wireless company in the united kingdom. you are creating the biggest broadband in the united kingdom, but competition will not be threatened. that is the initial take. all thumbs ahead. lloyds, the results lackluster. i percent drop in their profitability. accuracy disappointed from the investor base. we are seeing their interest margin improving overall. it is improving. equity tier one ratio.
their financial strength improving. they take another hit relating to bpi. half a billion pounds were added to 13 billion pounds. this bank has the biggest exposure and provision when it comes to that ms. sold insurance. 9% drop in profit. back to you. jonathan: great work. thank you very much. they are the three top stock stories. volkswagen posted its first loss in more than 15 years. the company also increased its third-quarter provisions on the scandal and nearly 7 billion euros. shell says it will take a $2 -- asn charge is it holds after deciding it could not compete in its portfolio.
south african president, jacob zuma, says the country's currency is responding to weakness in the economy. >> [indiscernible] should we continue with the one , id of currency dominating think it is going to be -- that they are undertaking. the currency is responding to the global economy. jonathan: here is one of the top corporate stores, apple is predicting another blowout holiday season. it was most viable company reported earnings yesterday , forecasting another quarter of a record sales. is it enough to ease investor concerns. including worries about slowing growth in china. tim cook struck a positive note in the company's earnings call.
>> we see enormous change in china over the next several years. the latest study i have seen from mckenzie indicates if you look back five years, china's middle class hit about 50 million people. if you look at five years, it will have 10 times that number in it. i feel like we are well-positioned in china. i am sure we can do better. i think we are doing fairly well. , sitting caroline hyde next to me, interesting on china. tim cook says everything is fine. i wonder if everything is just fine for tim cook and apple in china and not everyone else echo caroline: i think you are actually right. down about 5% in terms of sales.
this is phenomenal growth. this is 87% pick up in china. this is a quarter of all of their sales now. this quote stood out. i wouldnot know if -- not know there are any economic issues in china. this is how impressive their sales are in china. they've got a new product in china. apple recently entered the market. i think they are managing to navigate in a contracting market. we hear from the other corporate that are exposed to china. for apple it picks up. million handsets. that is phenomenal. that is 22%. jonathan: there are always numbers -- there always phenomenal numbers out of apple. bigger base. starting to come up with higher growth numbers. i wonder when the comparables start to become difficult.
the rate of facts in china start to take affect. caroline: they are already becoming more difficult. it is going to be a record blowout number for their overall holiday sales, but the growth is small. we are seeing for percent growth expected. -- we're seeing 4% growth expected. quarterowth that we see for quarter in the last year. we are seeing another marked slowdown. they are such a juggernaut. when you see that's when you have a company that is worth two thirds of $1 trillion. this is why they are struggling. investors ising the prevalence of the iphone versus the other product base. you have ipads falling. you see the watch? not even 4 million even sold.
jonathan: i love this comparison. the 2015 comparison. iphone, 66%. go to the 2006 breakdown. you would call it ipod inc. with 40% of the sales coming from that. his family has a history of changing. unfortunately for a lot of people, the bad taste in a lot of people's mouth is fueled by what is happening with the watch. where is the next product line? the question is do they need one? caroline: tim cook talks a good game. everyone still wants to move on to the next iphone 6 s. they were tailored to the asian community. they like bigger phones and screens. why they are doing so well in china, because they managed to tailor it to what they want in the chinese community, bigger handsets. he is still saying he will want to upgrade.
jonathan: what you make of the upgrade rate outside of china? is that happening in the way the markets wanted to happen? caroline: he says people are still moving on from android phones. i think that will be the key issue is can they maintain these levels of upgrades? be? can tohone seven keep this circle going? yes, they can keep it at 66%, but what about when you want to expand this overall base? microsoft and facebook earnings as what are not as big iphones poland in the last quarter. $32 billion worth on handsets alone. numbers are always phenomenal. caroline hyde, thank you for
he son not even rising on wall street over in new york. the fed is decision day. find onestruggle to that thinks the fed is going to hike interest rates tonight. it is all about the statement and the federal reserve medication. that is the story for later today. -- federal reserve communication. that is the story for later today. volkswagen posting a loss for the first time in 15 years. stock -- hansthe nichols, the stock is up. we break down the numbers. a series of negative headlines. the stock goes lower. you try and explain that. hans: the headlines were not negative as they could've been. you look at that provision headline, and it says volkswagen has increased their provision. 6.7 billion euros. before it was 6.5 billion euros.
that is an indication that they , there estimates were accurate on how much this is going to cost. the other is you look at the is up its profitability to 3%. in the past, they have struggled , 1.9 to 1.2 percent. the goal is to get it north of 5%. hasvolkswagen brand performed better than expectation. the prophet came in less -- the prophet came in less than expected. it looks as though that provision number basically stayed the same. that could because the investors to say that volkswagen has a hold on this. we got the conference call later. analysts will be asking him tough questions. jonathan? matthias miller has to chased the music -- has to face
the music. company biggest biggest has to cut spending did length projects after a big miss and third-quarter earnings. adjusted income of about 60%. the stock is down 2.97%. that makes sense to me. it is a big week for big oil. bloombergs energy and commodities managing editor, well, statoil it makes sense. it was a big miss. what is driving it? more than are paying a year ago for technical reasons. the broader picture is lower oil. another oil is company saying we are going to cut more spending. we are going to delay projects. the industry is hunkering down because they believe prices are going to be lower than what they originally expected. jack of yuan i spoke about bp
yesterday. shell, a company that did the opposite. , carrying on cutting assets. people focusing on the $60 oil in the medium-term. that is what bp based their framework around yesterday. say, the show has been a little more optimistic. they canceled another big project in canada. very expensive oil as you know. another $2 billion right down there. jonathan: will kennedy, a busy man. a big week for big oil. bloomberg surveillance is coming up. do not miss that interview. 56 minutes into the session here in europe. stocks marginally in the green
♪ >> it is the waiting game. investors brace and head of today's federal reserve policy statement. economists look for rate hike clues. apple upgrade. the tech giant forecast record holiday sales. fueled by the iphone as it beat third-quarter estimates. these ok. volkswagen unveils its first third-quarter loss in more than 15 years. morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. i am jonathan ferro in london. tom keene in your.