tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg October 29, 2015 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
betty: welcome to the bloomberg market day. good afternoon. i am betty liu. this is what we are watching this hour. markets are moving lower with signs that the fed may be looking to december. pfizer looking to acquire allergan. but the deal could become a key issue in the 2016 presidential campaign. ibm just brought it with a company with digital assets. why sell the digital assets only and why sell it to ibm? when you are about one hour away from the close of trade. this rally has been halted inequities. julie: when you are seeing
declines today. a halt, a pause, whatever you want to call it. are stillrest and we talking about the fed because yesterday stocks rallied after the fed came out with a statement, leading people to believe it is opening the door to the possibility of a raise in december. on the averages are lower at this time. mostget utilities down the in percentage terms as we see rates go higher in the treasury market on the back of the fed statement. financials, information technology following closely behind. those are the two groups that are contributing the most of declines today. within technology particular, i have been watching tech five networks, the company coming out with a forecast that is below what analysts had been anticipating. onis blaming some weakness latin america and canada on its results. and also what is going on with currencies. telecom results for the company
also weaker. shares are down by about 10% right now. we are going to go from the cloud to the chipmakers. julie: technology is pretty broad-based. five -- you have f5 talking about weakness. but you have the dutch maker talking about weakening demand because of the chip glut globally and the slowing global economy. throughout spreading the chips today. we are seeing broad-based selling within the particular group. another group i wanted to focus on is the auto parts makers. the most into month after it cut its annual profit and sales forecast. those shares falling. borgwarner also falling and
dragging goodyear as well. betty alluded to disappointing housing numbers. the biggest decline month over of 2013.ce date homebuilders are taking a hit as a result of that number of their today. betty: let's get a check of the headlines. mark crumpton has more from our news desk. mark: thank you. the new speaker of the u.s. house of representatives says the days of business as usual are over. in his first address as speaker, paul ryan said "the house is broken. we are wiping the slate clean." webster, who came in second in the voting admitted, "i had hoped it would be me." the partiesd by staunch conservative members. for the past three decades, --
since the past three decades, china is changing its domestic makeup. all couples in china will now be able to have two children. china wants to boost of the number of births by 2 million a year. a florida man accused of a fatal shooting in a movie theater claims to use the controversial stand your ground law as a defense. weeds, a retired police captain, was charged with second degree murder last year. forriticized the victim sending text messages. the law would shield him from criminal prosecution or civil action. the fort lauderdale airport is closed after a jet fire sent passengers scrambling down evacuation slides. or than a dozen people were injured. the dynamic airways boeing 767 was taxiing for departure to venezuela today when an engine caught fire. the national transportation board is sending a team to investigate. wordis a look at our first
news right now. bloomberg.com. betty: you can always find the latest news at thank you so much betty:. -- first word news right now at bloomberg.com. thank you. >> the commentary they were you before shook markets, if you think about it. the friday after the press conference, people said, wait a minute, that is not part of the mandate of the fed. they kind of said, hey, things are actually decent out there. betty: for more perspective, let's bring in troy at sky bridge. you are also reassured by the fed? troy: people sorted to think, hey, we really have a third mandate now? if they didn't want a hike, you
they -- they could point to inflation. focused on them labor market gains and the fact that they expect efficient to pick up is a very positive sign for investors. our whole news just get on with it. a 25-basis point hike is not going to break the real economy. it will put pressure on the manufacturing because of experts in the dollar -- the exports and dollar strengthening. that: i have heard sentiment quite often. just do it. it is not that big of a deal. but the reason it is a big deal is because we are on a tiny path. troy: that's true. betty: goodbye easy money. quantitativet easing has ended, we have also loose monetary policy. we will be transitioning from ultra-loose to still very loose. so we are not going from hyperlinks to very tight overnight.
no marketare dislocations or bubbles a former overtime. betty: you think they will go december the? we think 50/50 is a good chance. strong. isn't as we did get good q3 data today. but because a weakness overseas or the u.s. consumer begins to pretty good is a odds. so flip a coin and see where that turns out. fund: people in the hedge world, they have had a really tough time in this market. troy: thanks for reminding me. [laughter] some: they have suffered pretty big profits. larry bob -- larry robbins came letter ton am sorry investors saying i did not do a good enough job at protecting your capital in the last three months.
is that going to help with the fed raising rates? we can see many strategies directly benefiting from the fed raising rates. to thecan see, due dislocations particularly in health care, securitized credit, mortgage backed securities, the starting point today to take risk for certain hedge fund strategies is as good as it has been since late 2012. not as good as it was at the end of 2011 when there was a ton of things to do. riskng forward, we think adjust returns will be better next or than they have been the last two. betty: what about predicting macro trends? is it going today really hard to make money off of that strategy? troy: one of the most popular macro strategies is to belong the dollar. and then we have this intermediate period. everybody thought the fed was going to hike. it held off. and we had the jobs data in september. then it was revised down. betty: they got caught.
troy: right. there should be another round of dollar strength. if you are a macro manager, what do you hold the dollar long against, euro, yen or emerging-market currencies? our preference is emerging-market currencies. betty: the long? troy: no, be short. everyone first fed hikes back into march. now they are pulling fed hikes forward and you see weakness again. we expect that to run for a couple more weeks. betty: great to see you. thank you. much more ahead in the next three minutes of the bloomberg market day. companies the weather digital assets for $2 billion. but does that's billion of the weather channel? david kenney joins us live. les lincoln shares are down about 6% this year. the company shows -- can the company show that investments are paying off? 18 months after trying to
betty: good afternoon. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. reported itshell worst loss in 16 years, raising concerns about the big purchase plan for bg group. but shell will push ahead with its largest ever acquisition, even as bubbly caliper energy prices contributed to asset write-downs of nearly $8 billion. for now, investors are still giving the company ceo the benefit of the doubt.
chartered has held discussions with bankers on raising at least $4 billion. while the bank has discussed of the chance of raising capital, no decision has been made in whether to proceed with the share sale. the company needs a billion dollars to address a funding gap -- $8 billion to address a funding gap. and the dollar could reach 30 with the euro within a year. the euro is trading at 1.10. the fed says it will consider raising interest rates in december. meanwhile, the ecb is considering additional stimulus measures. you can always get my business news at bloomberg.com. the sky is ahead for big blue ibm is set to purchase the weather companies digital assets for $2 billion. that means watson may be the world's best weatherman. but what about the weather channels media business, mainly the television channel? here we have weather company
david kenney joining us from atlanta. david, good to see you. david called the deceit you, betty. i want my glasses to match yours. betty: that's good. i forecasted that, by the way. assets tohe digital ibm. you are now integrating it. everybody's question is what happens to the weather channel? david: they weather channel on television is a very strong business. we operated those as to businesses for quite some time. the technology business entity business. and the tv business has access to the weather channel brand and access to the best possible science. of course, that science is only good to get better as the technology parts of the weather company integrate with watson. betty: how much of the weather channel depends on the data points that have now been sold to ibm? david: the weather channel is an
important customer of the weather technology company. as are many other networks. we provide data to a lot of television networks and a lot of local stations. probably the biggest relationship is and will continue to be with the weather channels television property. but it won't change from where it is today. it well and get better as a forecast gets better as a result of our merger with ibm. betty: so you have no plans on selling the media or the weather channel assets. you'll have any plans to sell the weather channel. i will continue to run both until discloses. owner will sort that out. betty: tell me about how long this integration is good to take. debbie the process, david. david: when you separate a company, it takes a little bit of work. -- take me through the process,
david. david: when you separate a company, it takes a little bit of work. what did the company collected data was that was so attractive to ibm? three there were tournament or agendas. first is the internet of things. we continue find more and more things to collect observations about the atmosphere which is how we predict the weather, from smartphones, from from windshield wipers, from connected homes and thermostats, from trucks and trains and buildings. and we continue -- as we continue to connect things and get more data from them, that gives us so much more data to process. the second part is competition. we then have to compute that into a forecast. the weather channel is unique in forecasting the weather for 3 billion locations every 15 minutes in order to serve every person on the planet on the smartphone. that takes an enormous amount of computing power. and we at ibm have an agenda --
and we and ibm have an agenda to keep computing in the cloud. the third part is connecting the weather company with watson. today, we do predictive computing at the weather company. we predict the weather and what is good to happen. but that isn't complete. an airline pilot nation know whether to fly or delay his flight paid a truck driver needs to know what is good to happen. people need to know is good to happen and what decisions or actions they should take by being cognitive, by turning the prediction into an action, by connecting our dinner with all other data. it will make our forecast infinitely more useful to businesses and individuals. betty: can you put it down, how much more accurate the weather watson being crunched by and their cognitive services? david: we are measuring it by precision. i think it will measure accuracy. we are the most accurate but those are big areas, like counties or states. we want to measure the weather
at the long combinations, for specific locations. that will really matter. at the conference this week, they talked about hurricane patricia. knowing exactly their router that hurricane allow them to allocate their resources and happy before they needed to be and not where they didn't need to be. so we believe it will save billions of dollars in the economy and in lost sales and end by the predictive about whether weather is going to hit and where it is not going to hit. ibm has already been crunching weather data for quite some time. and you separate have. -- and you separately have now that you are combating the two, how much overlap is there? david: there's certainly energy. we have been focused on different problems. have had a good working relationship for years. i think there is certainly a bigger agenda that can happen. goodnk because ibm is so
at cognitive computing and helping businesses make decisions, we will now connect that weather far more cleanly and specifically to retail decisions, to transportation decisions, to energy decisions. the weather will be far more useful when it is delivered through watson. betty: there are synergies, i understand, but will there be areas where you see overlap and you will have to cut back, either staffing or expenses? based onne of this was cost. we totally both businesses are growing. the cognitive computing is a fast-growing area within ibm and our business has been growing rapidly. we have this new app out today that is bringing people into the ios system. see any redundancy. we'll may see significant growth. we will continue to hire and build a great team together. betty: tell me how this deal can together. who approach to? and how long did it take -- who approached who? and how long did it take? david: we were necessarily
trying to find a suitor, contrary to rumors. will register and to build a business. i would say those agenda items of cognitive computing, which i think machine learning is article to the next advance and our huge focus on cloud computing and i/o to kept having these conversations. we finally realize, there are some us to do together. let's do -- let's put these businesses together and do something spectacular. say, from ibm's perspective, as they got closer to our technology, they began to understand that this platform could work in other sources of unstructured data, maybe smart energy, maybe health, maybe education or smart cities. if we can work together and actually use our technology for other predictive and more importantly other cognitive platforms, it could be a win-win for both companies. betty: david, great do see you. thank you for joining me. kenney, the ceo of a weather company joining us in atlanta.
betty: welcome back. career networking site linkedin will rip the third-quarter earnings after the bell today. it has a lot to prove to investors because shares are down 6% this year. analysts are wondering if the an online learning platform may be inflating sales, masking growth organically. is it masking growth or lack of growth? peter: i don't think so. of its revenue is the revenue.
about 20% advertising. it is a little bit of a missed -- a mix. last quarter, it was about 30%. this is a stock that is volatile around earnings time. they put up numbers that are over the pastd four quarters some disappointing numbers as well. betty: why is that? paul: they have grown so much on the expectations have gone ahead of them. the recent acquisition of -- that is a business that is growing quickly. they are integrating that into their business. but this quarter, they are looking for very strong topline growth, over 30%, looking for cash flow to more than double. and in earnings profit in the quarter. the one of the key metrics will be the users. betty: how is it doing? paul: they are adding 20 million users a quarter. have 400s, they will
million aggregate users this quarter. that is an underpinning for role of the social media companies. grow your user base. get the user base more engaged so you can charge higher fees. and sell advertising to advertisers. there when they started, were 600 professionals worldwide at they were -- 600 million professionals worldwide that they were targeting. at 400 million, they are getting to the upper part of it. paul: china is one of the areas they think will be a big growth area for them. that comesiness again, the dual revenue stream works very well for them. it is not necessarily always the variability of advertising. they had some stumbles. they need to really -- particularly with their sales force -- they reorganized their sales force. it did turn around and return good numbers last quarter. betty: how about the settlement about spamming people? paul: they reduced the number of
e-mails dramatically last quarter. betty: i've noticed a difference. paul: it is a big change. the user experience, improving the user experience oh that users will remain online mark, engage more with the app more, and therefore be more available to the company over the long term. betty: well, thank you. ahead, it could be the biggest deal in the farm industry. pfizer in talks to buy allergan. we will break it down with an in-depth analysis. ♪
headlines. mark crumpton has more. mark: good afternoon. president obama hopes he will be able to work with new house speaker paul ryan. josh earnest says the president reached out to ryan yesterday and wished him well. ryan was sworn in as the endless speaker in nearly 150 years. he said, "we are not settling scores. we are wiping the slate clean." john boehner said he leaves with "no regrets and no burden." a military judge says the lead defense attorney for a guantanamo bay detainee charged in the september 11 attacks cannot be fired. it came during a pretrial hearing in cuba. replacing the attorney would have significantly delay the tile and the new lawyer would delay the trial and the new lawyer would need top security clearance to take on the new case.
the u.s. military is removing 6000 feet of tether from a surveillance blimp that broke loose from a military facility. the blimp came down into pieces pennsylvaniathe countryside. state police used shotguns to deflate the lead so the tail section could be removed this afternoon. hu the mainl section -- the ll section of the blade is deflating and could be taken away by the weekend. you can always find the latest news on bloomberg.com. markets close in about 30 minutes time from now. let's head to the markets desk julie: some of julie: -- desk.
-- let's head to the markets desk. gopro is down 15%, its biggest one-day drop since its ipo last summer, summer of 2014. it is trading at the lowest price since is initial -- since its initial offer. all this as the company's earnings came out below analyst estimates, renewing concerns that it is a one trick pony. as cory johnson pointed out earlier today, even that one trick pony is in performing very well. offerings notct selling very well as a had into zepeda depends so that stock taking a "we are also looking at the coret loss -- product offerings are not selling very well.
we're seeing weight loss and nutrition stocks trade lower as well. buffalo wild wings, that stock trading lower by 18%. buffalo wild wings coming out with a forecast for the four-year saying now earnings will grow in the single-digit percentage before, it had been a 13% increase and the company is blaming this on a couple of things. it has been by locations from franchisees in order to make a renovation effort easier. however, that is raising costs. and the ceo highlighted higher labor costs. the cost of wings has been falling, but they are paying people more to work at those buffalo wild wings locations. betty: they have a big season coming up, right, the super bowl. julie: we sure do. care, turning to health pfizer is getting closer to breaking up and moving out. it is in talks to acquire allegan if the transaction goes
through, it will be the biggest deal in the history of the pharma industry. pfizer would gain valuable specialty drugs like botox. it would allow pfizer to move play mode tax legal address since allergan has its legal domicile in one -- in dublin. here we go again. another big health care deal. cynthia, let's start with you. why does pfizer want allegan? has been looking for a tax play. that has been in line for the last year. he has not been shy about it. he says the tax code is a disadvantage to u.s. companies compared to their european counterparts. that is a big driver pen he says that is not the only reason that they look at deals. but given the mix of the business, it is more heavily
weighted to brand-new drugs than pipeline drugs and drugs coming up. it does feel this is a lot more about tax than being a deal about to buy to get the new blockbuster. are again though, jeff, within version. i thought that was put to rest because of politics. jeff: this is the third time for pfizer to take a run at it. astrazeneca was the last one. yeah, their tax rate is about 25% at pfizer. they could lower their rates to somewhere around 15%. so there is a substantial savings. i'm surprised pfizer shares are down today. i think that captures the fact that investors are uncertain whether this will actually happen. it is relatively early stage that this all came out. betty: exactly. one of the other points on the tax base is there is the only tax rate -- the all in tax rate.
but the cash overseas makes the profit overseas and then has a u.s. tax rate on that after paying a tax. cynthia: that is the big issue. anywhere between $30 billion to $50 billion over time. that is the big plays for them. but is this going to get through her go through because of the fact that we are in a very political season right now? we heard clinton and others are the health care industry. clinton, donald trump, carl icahn have, and against inversions are complained about icons. we have not seen many republicans complain about it. but i think trump is a bellwether or indicator of where withinulist sentiment the republican party may go, which is to push against these aversions -- these and versions. i don't know that anyone can or will block the deal. they will have opportunities assets,off generics or
which appeases regulators. the question is will someone will step in and try to pass a law. betty: is this one of the last major megamergers in the health care industry? cynthia: i think we could see more. the bristol executive team talked about doing deals on their call. said, just because we haven't done a major deal recently, does not mean we can't or won't. we have yeley, when you see what they will do with their cash. gilead, we will see what they will do it their cash. jeff: and we have amgen as well. i have held for a while that we are in the final third of this stretch. we have had six quarters in a row. with trillion dollars plus in m&a. that is the first time in any
quarter that has hit a trillion since 2007. i feel this quarter is going to be strong. i think is good to start to fade a bit as interest-rate rise. a lot of the deal that needed to be done have been done. betty: like what? how about these private equity firms? are they having a field day? jeff: private equity is not doing as many deals as you would think. they are doing more of the $1 billion to $5 million range because they don't like to partner up anymore. ultimately, they are doing smaller deals with smaller checks. betty: how long will it take for this deal to get done? what are people saying? cynthia: it seems like it has to get done now. it is in the public domain. shares are trading. more baked into the share price, the money have to pay. it does feel like any timeline has to be accelerated by the fact that everyone knows this is happening now. i would be surprised if a god done a lot quicker than if it
was a deal that would negotiate -- negotiated in the background without us knowing about it. jeff: that is the thing, if being public is better for the deal. it can get done with the glare or the spotlight on a situation. but it probably has to move faster now that it is out in the open. betty: thank you. thank you both on the pfizer -allergan potential deal. will the bank of japan me the next central-bank to i just measures? -- two i just measures -- to measures? price earnings ratios may indicate some deep discounts for top names.
betty: welcome back. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. during sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly fell in september of the drop of two point 3% is the largest since the end of 2013 paid named best he index -- jennie p up at an annual rate of 1.5%. that is -- and you added annual rate of 1.5%. that is half of the second quarter. the number of people seeking u.s. unemployment aid barely rose last week. the average level of applications dropped to a
42-year low. adjusted tocations 60,000. employers are cutting fewer jobs. a commitment to animal welfare. the company announcing that it will source only kh-free eggs by the end of -- page-free eggs by the end of 2025 -- cage-free eggs by the end of 2025. it is up a bit in trade. you can always be a more business news at bloomberg.com. end itss decided to one-child per family policy. now they can have two children. it is largely economic. it comes days after china cut interest rates. no we focus to another part of asia, japan. it has a meeting tonight.
joe, we really mean that bank of japan has a meeting. joe: this is one of the most anticipated bank of japan meetings in a couple of years. economists are fairly split. most think they will stay on hold. but a sizable minority think they will add more stimulus. banke thinks that what the of japan has done so far has been a roaring success. none of the economic data has been that great. the you have a global backdrop of easing in europe and potentially easing in europe and easing in china. there is a lot of arguments for japan to go. betty: so what is going on? what warrants more stimulus? joe: none of the data is that great. they want to have inflation. they want to break out of their deflationary trap and they haven't done it. if you look at any measure of investment or spending, it is
not that great. ever since the whole abenomics started, they have spurts of good news and people declaring it a success and then backtracking. there is their own shooting themselves in the foot, whether it's consumption tax increases that harm the consumer, but they never get the breakout growth that should job a -- that's promised. bety: is more stimulus gunny more impactful -- going to be more impactful outside of japan? joe: the verdict of asset purchases during chile, i don't think anyone knows for sure how effective it is. central banks to their inflation targets by and large. it might have some impact on the margins. my biggest for asset prices. it might weaken the yen. but even then, only by a minimal
value. it might have felt that she might help at the margins, but i don't think people will say we finally got there. betty: what about china and how much china is easing is affecting japan? some extent, they compete on manufacturing and other stuff like that. you have to figure that the margins pushes japan closer to an easing. japan has its own specific stuff. china has its own specific stuff . i don't think they necessarily want to become a need to be in sync or need to compete with each other. you have to figure, all in the entire world is easing, when the entire world assigned out, you can't go too far out of step. perhaps the u.s. code. perhaps the fed is in a stronger position and the u.s. economy can be out of step ahead but by a large, it is not something any but -- any country wants to be in at this point. betty: thank you.
betty: welcome back. we are approaching the close of trade for the day. julie hyman has more in our market check. isie: the s&p 500 index fighting higher here potentially at the close. right now, higher by less than a point. we will see if it does make it there. we had some negative economic data today. gdp coming in worse than next amended -- than estimated. thexed picture to resume in mixed picture we are seeing in the markets. people are still china to assess the fed statement from yesterday and what exactly it means for
the markets. let's take a look at my .loomberg terminal utility stocks have been down all day. but even they have pared their declines. they have been following is bond yields have been rising. health care and consumer discretionary and energy stocks are now supporting some of the gain we see in the s&p 500. i do want to go back to the yield of movement we have seen today because it has been a very sharp upward moving yields. note.now on the 10-year the movement upward since before the fed statement yesterday. about 10 basis points. so a big move. commodities, we saw a big turn -- a big downturn in gold prices. code oil is lower, but not by much -- crude oil is lower, but not by much. some stabilization as we see energy stocks gain.
but i do want to call out the strength we see in health-care stocks today. we had earnings in some companies beating estimates. the company saying it's cost savings were better than thought, raising its buyback authorization. allergan on this talk that it and pfizer are in prillaman are talks for a deal. and vertex pharmaceuticals also beating estimates with its cystic fibrosis drug. dow jones is reporting that cvs filidor.inated says itys -- valeant does not own filidor.
it is trading lower pay care has been such a busy area as of late, mostly to the downside. a lot of analysts were telling -- live into earnings weevision, limit -- that would see stocks recover and come out with numbers that big estimates. as you are saying, do so many hedge funds get bruised and battered. they own a lot of large positions in health-care in the got really hurt. let's stay on health care. i want to bring in david wilson. price-earnings ratios, are we to conclude that it is cheap? if you buy what the chief
strategist at maryland says. she ran the numbers in terms of those industry groups. -- strategist at merrill lynch says. she ran the numbers in terms of those industry groups. care, you go back to the beginning of the year when it was 10% more expensive. it was just last month with the declines that we saw that it turned cheaper. as much as 5% cheaper than the s&p 500 index on that basis. the way that she figures it, it would take a 60% increase in the s&p 500 health care index to bring that group back into line when you look at these forward price-earnings ratios under the comparison. betty: but they were never that expensive. they were never a bubble territory. david: these stocks were more expensive in relative terms than
more recently. that said, with the declines out of the august drop in stocks and beyond, that made them cheap by this price-earnings measure. julie: it depends on what subgroup you're looking at in health care. if you look at the nasdaq biotech index and its valuation versus the s&p, it still remains in relatively elevated levels. it has come down, but if you look at the pe basis, it is twice as expensive as the s&p 500. but she still does want to get involved in biotech. david: the areas within health care that she is focusing on, life sciences and then some of the biggest drug companies, the mega-caps, the likes of pfizer. betty: and in m&a deal spring that on. there are other companies within health care that you are looking live -- looking at. david: there is a stock of the day that i look at for bloomberg radio. today's stock is an interesting
case. we know that one of their biggest products, their biggest selling drugs, allergan, is botox. it takes away bring goals and does a bunch of other things. there is another company called revance therapeutics working on an altar evidence to botox. second state with study results that showed that those worry lines come a few to their drug, which doesn't have a 00 at the -- it is rt moment -- that he keeps those lines away longer than botox. betty: when you look at the smaller biotech companies, the ones that don't have product on the market or have drugs that are at your mental, the risk reward is really -- that are experimental some of the risk higher.s really
there is big payoff for them. david: it is a payoff that happens over time. this company will not even go to the final stage for you as a pro of the second half of next year. so you figure it is at least a couple of years out before it gets to the point where it could conceivably be approved to sell this drug in the u.s.. betty: thank you. bloomberg for the market day. we got starbucks, electronic , expedia, first solar and solar city and many more. . .
ringing] ell october stock rally stalling -- emerging-market stocks heading for their biggest drop of the month while commodities from copper to gold sink. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" the race to raise rates -- is a hike needed more urgently in the united states and overseas? joe: and more on the central bank front -- the central bank in japan meets in just a few hours. alix: the end of an era in china , which is ending its controversial one child policy. how this huge changes moving the markets. but we begin with the markets. we were down, giving back some of yesterday's late rally following yesterday's no decision. , nothing happened but we did see an increase in short and long-term rates.