tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg October 30, 2015 8:00pm-8:31pm EDT
potion making pollster. they say rubio is now the go-to guy. a memoer pac put out saying he's one of only four win theans who can nomination. your times guessed he is the parties most likely standardbearer. is the rubio stock currently overvalued? >> he is hot and rising. until the rice is in the polls and shows he can turn this good fortune into money, he isn't overvalued stock. in were between rubio and bush
rubio continues to win. it's intentional and provocative. it's meant to crush bush's spirit. him's also meant to draw into attacking marco more because they see the division is good. they want them to attack them over his voting record because it makes bush look petty. >> the other thing or going for now his social media the internet. it's becoming increasingly pro-marco because they don't want him in every corner of the conservative media, but they love them a lot more than they love jet. john: full to us in our thing to smart people. a lot of republicans gave about two and responses. 71% say marco rubio. that isn't overvalued stock. he may be rising, but he is not 70%. that has donald trump at 4%.
>> we will see how much he rises. you think he'll do more than i do, but if he rises in the polls the momentum will get recharged believe --till can't it tells you just how much in the inside the beltway establishment opinion is per rubio, for a lot of reasons not just for the date -- debate performance. he's the one who wins on somewhere level. is --eb bush's campaign the storyline is bad. the latest sign of trouble for -- campaignshamp chief operating officer abruptly left the campaign with no explanation as to why. donorstill trying to mean concerns. now attracting job. visited deathwatch received the
beginning of a comeback? >> i have not seen them do anything other than promised to voters that he would get better in some kind of undefinable way. i have not seen them do anything in the last 24 hours that makes me think he turned on her. here's the worst thing you done since the debate. in out to be coming back for money. the problem for him is that everyone is on deathwatch. he needs some good news. the super pac 31 on tv with ads. that did not racist bloomberg. he either needs rising: numbers, debate performance or something else. he needs to turn this around to get the narrative back where he can go after rubio area john: all of those things are fair enough. it's still the case that he does not have, on the basis of
everything that we -- he does not have voters. the problem. bernie sanders says his campaign has received kim -- contributions for more than 750,000 people and hillary clinton says the white house will block the state department from releasing her correspondence with obama citing executive privilege. clinton was ina -- or up to five black lives matter protesters. >> i think his next debate is key. the next few debate is key bernie sanders justices for job.
just as jeb is kind of linux going after marco bernie is not want next about whether he can go after hillary. both of those guys need to sort that out. john: as you know. i read about campaign earlier this week i set up there were about 15 hours of debate prep last time and he quoted on the record saying he needed about a hundred 50. they will try to focus on getting sanders ready and try to figure on a way to focus on the issues only not the personal character. i think there's a little bit of -- a little bit of baloney about that because the issues go to character. mark: the other things interesting is there is so much confidence now in the clinton camp. if you republicans now the democratic nominee will be healthy hillary. sanders has to get back to convincing people that he can win. biden's departure makes it a
taller order. he's got to convince island new hampshire he can beat her. john: the key fingers iowa. iowa shey clinton wins will probably be the nominee. pending some weird thing sanders wins iowa everything is crazy. the question is what the sanders iowa operation look like? what the polls say? he has to show some life out there. the last couple of old but in way behind. big news from the white house today. american special all sources are going to be on the ground in northern syria for the first time to help rebels fight isis. the white house downplayed the significance of the move saying it's not part of any new strategy. the new speaker of the house and some of the presidential candidates are already questioning his decision.
why is president obama putting 50 american troops on the ground when he said he would not to i think it's because the situation is deteriorating. he's trying to do something to try to get a handle on the deteriorating situation. i think republicans claimants too little. i think the pentagon probably told the white house they need this to make sure the airstrikes will be correlated, that this move is not nearly as important as the peace talks. the white house needs to figure out if they can live with an interim government. i think the u.s. is headed towards that and that will make the military stuff -- the president himself said there is no military solution. john: there's only a political solution i think you and i been singing very for about a month that there is more of an openness now inside the administration.
mark: 50 such a ridiculously no number there have to be secret. the price you pay for doing a versus the 50, depending on the surface charges say we just can't do if you're asking us to do. you say 50 when you're actually 7500. mark: identify hundred. but it's got anymore. john: google crawl out of our current after the break? it could be ankles are or could be great surely. stay with us. ♪
our guest tonight is not the least bit spooky it's our bloomberg pollster. she joins us from my cap. a lot i will only lately including the des moines register. where trump ben carson i had. they're counting on bringing a lot of first-time voters. how does your polling tests the question of whether they can be successful? are you oversampling regular voters? my poll is designed to abide by the science of polling which is everybody was going to show up on caucus night has an equal chance of being contacted by michael. i don't decide based on past voting behavior, all i can do is whether you register to vote right now. defendants of people?
some people can register on caucus night. and it could be 17 and participate if you will be 18 by november. but it's a pretty full sample frame. mark: the universe that trump ben carson are going to. many of those people may not be registered. they may show on caucus night areas of their ready after that? guest: now with our method. like feeling uncomfortable about my method. my goal is not to regret anything. it is a small universe of people whose show on caucus night. if suddenly there was an influx, that would be problematic. but the campaigns are identifying those voters are getting them registered ahead of caucus night. they don't want a big line of the door. we are updating our list all the time. so 2008 when you are really close and accurate.
later on, carson. the0% of people shop on democratic side. that's an alarmingly large number. interest will set it was 57. we are now more 30% range for both parties. but this will be the first target -- caucus. as things get more citing and telling you it's in the candidate's best interest to have as people register before so they can get into caucus night quickly. first will if it's there time in line they will give up. john: there's always a lot of talk about business about various lanes. the establishment lane, the practice candidates the grievance candidates. right now in iowa, it's pretty over 50%ce we see the carson trial fiorina through prison there your way over 50.
establishment candidates to less than 50 right now. they're 18 7020. so what is the establishment of a right now? are they all decided? where's the electorate shifted in some fundamental way? guest: you have to discrete units. we asked in our last poll question is that a greater risk of people desperately doing the same thing was a greater risk to have an outsider who doesn't know what they're doing? break those of our more, republicans 50% said it's a greater risk you doing anything. we have a theory outsider, a company carson lead in that group and trump and personally love people who say greater risk is that doesn't know what they're doing. people are not lining up the way you might wish them to. i will everybody first and their job is to keep an open mind and try people on.
they are trying on carson in trenton that's not to say that they will change area mark: if you follow that segment of the electorate, or are they? guest: well it's not a big group. it's sure to 15%. they tend to be people who are paying as much attention. they tend to be younger. mark: traditionalist out to voters who were settled between bush and christie? that's not effectiveness? guest: we offer them opportunities rate favorability. i don't think so. i don't have perfect data for you. marco rubio is a hot candidate. he's in some time and i will not as much as others area is bill much of an organization. guest: we come before he tried
to do that he never -- he did not do very well. we saw the rick santorum by the pickup truck and spent a lot of time, but he did not have a lot of county chairs are people who are in the traditional way organized. there are lots of ways to win the iowa caucuses. the more sure about is if you have a good organization identify people that the persuasion events that you are now committed to show up on the night. mark: normally it is relatively clear divergence between the net -- the national polls in iowa holes. but this is a different kind of electric. so far it's been pretty close between the two. do you think is because of the caucus that. to diverge or is this for three different where i was somehow going to let the national league question mark guest: i wish i
could predict that. i see happening is that more candidates are spending time in iowa, the more their advertising and spending money in iowa you're going to see who is getting traction and i will first area will be just solver to polls of yakima hours that carson was's leading. it's a little while with the national polls begin to reflect that. i ways influential in a lot of ways. it's the first place to win and they're going to be spending their time there and i wouldn't obviously biased national polls follow ireland. it's interesting own people can understand why sanders and clinton are so close in new hampshire -- it's interesting that the iowa polls are much tighter on the democratic side than they are nationally. guest: the warming of alexander side is he has very concentrated
john: there are lots of books about reagan what's different i wasthis one? guest: working on a previous reagan book about for five years ago and might an 11-year-old son mitchell was highlighting all of the binders news clips and material from the reagan library that he was is to go through it every time reagan's name came up useless to highlight it. my folks always and family affairs. research myone daughters have done back-checking. anyway he said about 9:00 one dad has anyone done a book about reagan three was president? i said no and started looking into it and realized he lived for 16 years after he left the white house. there's a lot of living it went on in those years. let's talk about that.
mark: their presidents now that the presidency -- the clinton has a big post-presidency. what are the most important part? guest: reagan was tired. he was the oldest president. he left office and needed to get back to california to get back to the ranch. he needed to recharge his batteries area he was always active. he did not worry about his legacy the nick carter and others did. he was a popular and successful. reagan never use the word legacy. he resisted talking about it. the american people think i did a good job that will be enough for me area he was obsessed. he did have a presidential library and two books. by the clean.d he gave speeches in london and
moscow. he was always active. he went white water rafting. he also in a way compartmentalize his time in washington. as a matter fact, his diary went on to california start of a new life. he was dumping president and now he was going to move on something else area mark: you listen a lot of things eventful. i guess part of that would be the illness. there's been some debate about the trajectory and timing, talk about the debate is what you see is the truth. guest: i think i think the fact a cameey exist is that and went and saw for years there was a schedule is a diary there was his letter writing. all the key people who were say he was just as active
in violent january 1989 as he was in january 1981. there was no sign whatsoever of alzheimer's. in fact he went to the mayo clinic every year to be diagnosed running all medical checkup. he passed every year with one colors. john: with the earliest to the concerted show? spring of 1984d -- 94 which would been six years after taking the white house. >> the way they handle the illness became important. one of the things in the past when they got now. nobody knew they were sick.
the decision was made to bring that is the public. >> he made the decision himself. they decided to cash almost the day that he was old -- told he sat down and wrote a letter to the american people i think now the modern standard is always discard. i don't think you can keep rings from the american people area >> book is out now. we'll be right back with some news about us. ♪
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