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tv   Asia Edge  Bloomberg  November 1, 2015 10:00pm-11:01pm EST

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after a less bad environment. yvonne: also coming up this hour, hands-on diplomacy. leaders put years of tension aside in place to cooperate on economics and security. china prepares to roll out its first single aisle passenger jet. stability.land of india's junior finance minister says the rupee can weather the storm of global volatility. a special conversation with bloomberg's editor-in-chief. november not quite starting where october left off after the gain on the asia-pacific index last month. regional index down around 1%. since then, it has been hurt by a plunge in exports in falling
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oil prices. we have seen a emerging-market currencies rise today. looking at the shanghai composite, pretty flat at the moment. the latest pmi reading out of china showing some stabilization. an eighth consecutive month of contraction but it went better than economists forecasted. >> they took over from hsbc given the secondary manufacturing pmi. this one is mostly private-sector manufacturers, smaller than the official pmi that was out yesterday. contraction, let's not
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try to confuse the fact here. 47.6.rvey was for but, it was better than expected. some economists are saying perhaps we have seen the floor of this. in september, it was the worst reading for this gauge in 6.5 years. pmierday, the official coming in at 49.8. but, it was the same as september. economists saying they are seeing signs of stabilization. there is still deepening deflationary pressures in this economy and there is also weak for exports and export
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orders were down yet again. the global economy really weighing on these numbers as well. just look at the people's bank of china now, how is it looking at this? pressure to loosen further. >> there is increasing calls or yet another interest-rate cut. i think the pboc cut rates yet again. goldman sachs was out with a note yesterday saying they expect another cut of at least 25 basis points. the rate at a record low right , butistorically speaking quite high still and they say more cuts are needed.
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the chinese government is trying to shift away from manufacturing, going into services. this nonmanufacturing pmi includes banking, telcos, construction. it was an expansion but the weakest pace of expansion since december of 2008. rishaad: steve engle. the state of the factory floor in china has been high for our guests this morning. >> this is one of the biggest release of the month. a lot of the chinese data, you can't trust it that much. influencing potential u.s. policy as well. it shows a distinct improvement from the past couple of months. support of the policies
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being put through in china is beginning to get a little bit of traction. i think it is quite encouraging that you are getting signs of stability, moderate improvement in these numbers. yvonne: what do these numbers mean for china's policymakers? picture.he inflation we still think there will be another cut and also on the required reserve ratio, we think they will cut back quite a bit more aggressively. 200 basis points year was our forecast. we also asked india's junior finance minister about his read on china.
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>> you have the ability to be able to move faster or slower depending on where your policy goes. , 60 it comes to consumption to 70% of our gdp is consumption , those numbers are a little bit more difficult to engineer. the natural growth rate and behaviors and trend in the underlying economy. i would expect the chinese economy to proceed on that basis. yvonne: that is today's word from asia on china. a 17 straight monthly decline in revenue. showing operators even worse than anticipated in october. we did have a bit of a spike over china's golden week holiday. a bit of a curious set of numbers.
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zeb: i've been looking at the numbers and what they show is perhaps an optimistic view. the slowest pace since january that we have seen this decline. number, but certainly not always on february. rishaad: it was an awful 2015 generally speaking. it started off in late 2014. zeb: if we look at this year on year, analysts say gaming 26% butwill be down next year they expected to be down only 8%. as these projects come online, for example studio city integrated resort, all of that expected to return the territory
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to better fortunes. rishaad: gaming revenue particularly when it comes to the vip business. zeb: playing the slots, there will always be people who want to do that. they will be fewer people, at least in the time being, who come armed with hundreds of thousands of dollars already to borrow hundreds that dollars in new high-stakes gambling. in a slowing economy, there is less appetite for risk and less junket operators ready to dole out the cash, some of them shutting down completely. we know that some of them cromartie done that, shutting down these bip room that can be so lucrative. let's go back to the markets. quite a great run last month in asian equities.
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the best jump in five to six years. not a great start to the new month at all. you can see, we're down by almost 1%. there is a little bit of a switch into tech stocks. crude oil price down about half of 1%. seeing the big banks under pressure, too. the financial sector dragging on the overall index. there are a couple of the stocks that we are looking at in the region. a couple actually heading the other way and doing quite well. up by over 5%. samsung electronics getting a big lift. but the only indexes in the region actually in the black.
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and actually came through in a pretty strong first-half number but analysts said come through with some worrying notes about its second-half sales numbers. the aussie dollar reacting. it did have a bit of a spike with that number coming in. at 71.43 ahead of tomorrow's interest-rate decision from the rva. south korea was at its lowest level in two weeks. just a little stronger at the moment holding at 1140 against the dollar. rishaad: checking out some of the other headlines. the much-anticipated hong kong for cicc. cicc and other chinese financials helping to boost volume about 46% from the same
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time last year. sydney, a 3% rise in for your cash profit. the result is a record for the australian bank. bad debt charges rising for the first time since 2012. biggest bank,'s we are talking dbs group. $761 million. that follows a rise in singapore's key rate. yvonne: coming up later on, china prepares to show off its first homegrown passenger plane. first, we speak to a strategist
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who says western media is misrepresenting its economic data. ♪
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aviationrussian officials say the airliner that crashed in the sinai peninsula on saturday appears to have broken up in midair scattering over eight kilometers. it crashed after leading for st. petersburg. all 224 people were killed. egypt has dismissed claims from the islamic state that have brought on the airline, and indicated that technical problems were likely to blame. to -- the turkish ruling party took at least 49% of the vote. turkey has resumed its war against separatist and suffered a wave of attacks. the lira jumps the most in two
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years on optimism of stability. rishaad: a big campaign rally at of next weekend's election. 50,000 gathered to hear the head of the national league for democracy. won the last open a contested election in 1990. yvonne: let's take a look at the markets open in this region. hong kong shares looking down about 1/5 of a percent. 200 down, about 1.2% as we await that rba decision. the thailand and jakarta composite seeing some greens right now.
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we have that chinese data that is playing out when it comes to the markets. or shanghai really currently shrugging off that reading. it is the official one and the unofficial one as well. our next guest thinks the western media is grossly misrepresenting the performance of the chinese economy. -- what gives? we're just looking at the numbers and reporting the news. >> i was asked when i was coming here. you, china has not missed its growth target last year. because the investors that we have a europe are inundated with
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this kind of presentation of what happened last year, they are all freaked out. it does exist. rishaad: we never say that these numbers represent the missed targets. the point is, we would never actually say that this is thomas china grew. a huge body of people sitting right there. >> people say manufacturing pmi below 50. guess what? chinese manufacturing has never contracted since they started releasing the data. even yesterday's official report , which came below 54 the sentiment, the index for output was about 52. it hasn't been below 50 since
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2009. why would you say it is contracting? yvonne: why are we hearing supposedly talk of 6.53% growth. >> that is for the future, not for the past. china is continuing to slow in a gradual fashion and it will continue in a modest way. why are people panicking, talking about 2% growth or 5% growth. rishaad: we're not. >> look at all the other countries. rishaad: it is a different pay grade for me to work out how much china is actually growing. people are sitting there and suggesting that this data should be looked at as more of a guide than anything else. >> since 2011, we have been claimg, but to -- but to
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it is going less than reporting is outrageous to me. bloomberg reported the shelling was below 7%. they are based on the available indicators. you have to claim that this data is better than the other data. yvonne: do you really think that has trickled down? we haven't seen much coming through their. policy tightness or using is defined by real interest rates. real interest in china has been inflation has been declining faster than nominal rates. it had been kept from being deflator because the has been turning negative. there is this whole vast area of mistakes that people make.
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people make these gauges based only on activity in the manufacturing industrial. service is 48% of gdp up from 25% 30 years ago. rishaad: you have not been watching this program, have you? we have been talking about this for ages. >> manufacturing, you're looking at a quarter of the economy. service is accelerating. obviously, people have to get things right if they look at manufacturing data alone. it is easy to explain. reducing per capita by about 4% to 5% per year. this already tells you that energy consumption has to go 4%
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or 5% less. services are becoming bigger and bigger. rishaad: we have got our group can -- group discussion coming up. thank you very much. coming up next, pragmatism over politics. agreed to leta tension aside and work for the greater good. ♪
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yvonne: welcome back. you are watching "asia edge." halved lastales month compared to a year ago. eagle sales slumped to just 2400. the drama seems to have affected its image. vw is also lost its global sales lead to toyota. greece has been told to improve financial sector governance and now it's bigger banks are on sounder footing. the ecb said they need another $16 billion to ensure they can withstand another crisis.
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repairing greece's financial sector is a key part of its $95 billion bailout. politicians are generally pragmatic folk and china and korea have just underlined that. their leaders have agreed to put tensions aside for the time being and work together to create growth. they are saying there is complete cooperation here. >> the language is very different that we have been hearing for the past three years. i expect that both countries have realized that they have to start realizing how to getting behind -- getting past some of these historical animosities. the bodyven with language, it was kind of awkward when they were all holding hands. >> i think the realization was that it wasn't getting them
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anywhere. obviously the chinese and south .orean public the bitterness over the wars has been constantly stirred up. it has really helped park's poll numbers. in china, the economy is their big worry, and south korea as well. yvonne: thanks so much. more to come here on "asia edge ." ♪ we live in a pick and choose world.
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love or like? naughty or nice? calm or bright? but at bedtime ...why settle for this? enter sleep number. don't miss the semiannual sale going on now! sleepiq technology tells you how you slept and what adjustments you can make. she likes the bed soft. he's more hardcore. so your sleep goes from good to great to wow! gift the best sleep of your life to your whole family. only at a sleep number store. right now save $500 on the veteran's day special edition mattress with sleepiq technology. know better sleep with sleep number.
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yvonne: top stories this hour. thenew trading month onto offensive. ahead of stability on china's factory fly. official figures released show manufacturing contracted for a third straight month, however this morning the smaller factory gauge came in at 48 point three. still a contraction, but up from september and better than expected. stocks on the rise in hong kong for casinos despite gaming revenue falling. revenue down 28.4% in october.
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it is the slowest decline since january. seen as a less that environment. macau casinos have seen earnings tumble since mid-2014. kerry and president has begun her first ever bilateral meeting with shinzo abe. they join china's premier to put aside three years of strained relations and declare complete of slowing because economies. trilateral talks have been suspended since 2012 over and -- territorial disputes and japan's military legacy. back to japan, the latest in the markets with julie. -- juliet. let's see how they come out of the lunch break. by 1.9% still looking at that level at the moment. china, pretty flat. we have seen good gains in south
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korea. -- kospi is high. taiwan's market also high. we are seeing selling in the region despite the positive month of october that we had. asia-pacific index is down by almost 2% with every index -- sector in the red. we have been watching those casinos in hong kong. they have been doing really well despite the fold in macau revenue in october. galaxy entertainment started the day in the red, but looking pretty solid in the session. elsewhere, weakness from the usj.mitsubishi watching, theeen four-year profit. it was a 3% increase, but that is the slowest growth since 2009. that bank among other australian
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banks, hit by higher bad debt charges. rishaad: back to our top story. china may be stabilizing at last. the latest manufacturing pmi for october coming in slightly above what economists thought. economics correspondent is in. i guess it's half-empty really look at it. >> we are not talking about complete turnaround in the manufacturing sector. it is still a pretty sluggish part of the economy. experts -- exports remain under pressure. better than expected, but it doesn't change narrative dramatically on china's economy. we had someone a short while ago saying, this is the sentiment driven index. we also have the service part of the best nonmanufacturing part,
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that is still stronger expansion. guest: it is true rebalancing is really happening. the service sector is increasing, consumption is increasing. it is just not yet enough to fill the gap, to drive along china. it was being driven by the manufacturing sector. absolutely happening at a slow pace, but it's not there yet. rishaad: that's the service industry. it things going on that are not entirely under the control of beijing. guest: and you can see retail spending increasing all the time. ticket sales, china is the world's biggest market for cars. starbucks talking about increasing the number of stores they have in china. none of this is a result of the central planning in beijing. other details yet, but we expected to say going forward
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that they will continue to do more to put -- boost consumption and innovation. rishaad: thank you very much. shares of westpac right now, continuing to fall close to 2% in sydney. at 3% rise in full-year cash billion. $5.6 let's go over to paul allen in sydney. another strong result coming from an australian bank, but we are seeing shares, a lot of pressure right now. what is going on? paul -- paul: there are a few things that play. this kind of trickled out in the league's leading up to today. this is no huge surprise. cash profit was up 3%, but it was the slowest profit growth for westpac since 2009. bad debt charges as well, they million, theo 753
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first increase since 2012. not all bad. you still got a 94 send evidence. interest margin, unchanged at 2.08 percent. still pretty solid, but not enough to impress the market. westpac shares under 2%. but the ceo remains upbeat, he says all divisions grew. of course we are coming down to the decision tomorrow, opinions have been split about what the governor is going to do. what should we expect? 29 economists that bloomberg say 17 of them say we are going to be on hold at 2%. the other 12 think we will be down to 1.75%.
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for the next few months, the number is expected to grow. swap starter also may split 42% of trade is expecting a cut tomorrow. if we look at the reasons why, nothing has really changed, and that is the key issue. the economy is still struggling to rebalance and grow after the end of the mining boom. we also have a situation where banks have been raising mortgage rates, so that will put a crimp on consumer spending as well. inflation however, is very benign. the rba has room to move. for now it may be contained to let the weak aussie dollar to keep on doing the heavy was -- heavy lifting. it seems to me that shock absorber. paul allen from sydney. thank you. ofhaad: let's check on some the other stories in a heat headlines. the bank of japan has denied stifling debate, because they
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have the shortest policy meeting in 12 years last week. and lasted three hours, 17 minutes. even so, the oven or says they had plenty of time to discuss policy and a look ahead. packare managing to push target dates for 2% inflation in the process. the fall and energy prices is the biggest factor for the delay. the inflation target area but slower growth in this year due to meet demand from the u.s. and emerging markets was another reason. however, the prices continue to be on a rising trend, and we expect jobs and wages to improve further. tapping for a 17th golden week holiday revenue falling by 28 point 4% in october from one year ago. that is the biggest drop in gaming. macau's casinos earnings tumble into mid-2014, against the backdrop of what has been going
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on with china's anticorruption campaign and the slowing economy. down ased he will step deep executive. he was given the option to extend contract past october to i-16 but he decided against it. he has been cutting dodge desk jobs, selling stock to boost capital. bank chiefeuropean executive in the past few months to announce he is leaving his role. india has pledged to maintain spending on infrastructure as it looks to boost growth. critics are concerned the government will have to cut back to meet the deficit target. the country's junior finance minister says there is no need. speaking of bloomberg's editor-in-chief, they say they are confident the governor will succeed. >> we seem to be in a very comfortable position as far as
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the fiscal that target is concerned, because tax revenues in fact are running very strong right now. direct tax revenues are little bit below where we would like them to be, but we still have five months more in the fiscal year to go. we have hadtments, quite challenging targets of 69,500, we still have work to do. if we combine these different elements, and take a look at the expenditures, i think we have with.nough to work bewill be confident we'll able to meet the 3.9% fiscal deficit target. reporter: tell us about the rupee. it has been fairly stable this year, with all these gyrations in the dollar. do you think the worst days of the rupee are behind us? is it now and much more stable
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currency? the macroeconomic stability we have been able to in may, when we come 2014, the macroeconomic indicators were flashing red. but due to policy moves we undertook, as well as the downturn in the commodity markets, we have been able to restore stability to the macroeconomy. all those indicators are now flashing green. i think it is the ruby that is really showing that, because unlike other currencies that has the volatility in currency markets, the rupee has been an island of stability. i think it reflects the strong macroeconomic foundations we now have. reporter: you have one of the most complicated sales tax regimes anywhere in the world. you now have the chance of this gst. will you get it through and when will it happen? guest: it's a real game changer
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for india. as far as our government is concerned we are doing the most a push it through. we are hoping to get it through in the monsoon session of parliament. the party had not been willfully obstructing the functioning of parliament to prevent the gst from being passed, we would have passed it and it would have been a boon for consumers, citizens, investors and global businesses. reporter: you think road candy is playing politics? guest: i think the communist party is playing politics. it is clear this is an unalloyed benefit india and there's no downside. lenders only upside, why are you trying to block it unless it is for political reasons? reporter: what you expect by the middle of the next year to have gst in place? guest: we can turn on the 2016, the switch in formations, readiness, all of these factors that are necessary
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for a well functioning system are ready to go. we just need the upper house of parliament to function for god's sake, for a few hours. rishaad:, australia's turn to debate interest rates. our next guest is on the no change side of this. ♪
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rishaad: checking stories making headlines around the world. police in bangladesh say a radical islamist group is a prime suspect on secular book publishers that left one dead and another critically wounded. the two men targeted have published works by a bangladeshi american author who was hacked to death in february. roy is one of four atheist bloggers murdered in bangladesh this year. rishaad: israel has barred palestinians from part of the
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west bank after a weekend of violence. bp before her when a palestinian man rammed his car into a group of pedestrians. there were fears about control of a holy site in jerusalem. in other news, people are being -- 68 palestinians died by israeli gunfire. yvonne: the fbi says there's no evidence last months explosion on a boat was caused by a bomb. the president of the maldives was not her in the september 28 blast, but accuses a deputy of trying to kill him. the fbi has examined evidence from the bell and says there's nothing to suggest an explosive device. thank you for sticking -- with us.
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guest: i want to get a clearer picture of why you say when the pmi comes out, 50 is not the demarcation zone between expansion and contraction. what can we glean from these numbers if we cannot say it is either this or that? guest: good point. the first point is since production data begun in 2011, it has never contracted, despite the fact that pmi has frequently been below 50. 50 is not a contraction expansion. the second point is that the pmi has confidence that measures output. , look at thee output data. it must be expanding. this is a survey, this is not an actual gauge of output, but there are output numbers you can see. checkkind of a mood
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because, you can have as much output as you want but then you have overcapacity issues. this put the thermometer on the mood. guest: absolutely. itn you look at the data does show sentiment has trended lower over the past several or six years ago it was always about 50. now it is below. chinesestry lead the economy has slowed in the past few years, which everybody knows , the government confirms it. the only thing we can say is sentiment is worth what was years ago and this month is better. but the trend is deteriorating. even beijing admits it cannot grow at the past rates. now they are calling for medium paced growth. david: it's a yes or no
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question. the survey. when it is below 50, he means there are more pessimists, more people that think they are not doing as much as the previous month. guest: absolutely. david: ok. rishaad: but how much do the managers know in the first place? guest: i'm sure they know a lot, it is important to follow. it's important when it comes to demand, from domestic sources, employment, -- rishaad: there is solid evidence from another source. that is from abroad. we look at the australian economy that can be regarded as a bellwether or what is happening in china, especially the mining side of the economy. gone,mmodities boom has it is in a slump. that is one bit of evidence. i'm trying to get to the rba. yvonne: are you saying then there is no need for that anymore? guest: we think there would be no change, but let me just come
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back to what he said. evidence of the economy. do you know that chinese outputs are expanding? rishaad: there's so much supply. isst: just the dollar value crashing because prices can be ok, but volumes continue to expand. it is not true that china help -- is expanding demand for commodities, it's just glob al prices have crashed. rishaad: there's so much supply -- guest: prices are lower. demand is paying less. rishaad: the buyer is the winner. guest: that's it. yvonne: in terms of the re-ammunition, it's pretty low already. they can't afford to use that many more cuts to come, and they said nothing has changed since the last one. guest: yes, it does not seem
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like they are getting ready to cut rates again. with thesefortable kind of levels. but if they need to cut further, they do have the space, but i think they need to use it when they bash at a time when it's more obvious. david: you say it's never too late, but it's a bit late on their part. guest: it depends. what it is and what it is not too late for. for example, it is too late to of growth.wnward in china, it's already declining. even if people start having per capita, it would take 20 years for them to enter the labor force. they call for a steep decline in the labor force by 100 million people by 2030. scheme,he grand obviously it will hopefully help them if people do start having more children.
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reporter: and the anecdotal evidence i got when i lived there, even if they do relax, a lot of amalie's are choosing not to. they moved to the cities, it's too expensive to have children and put them through the whole process, that it might not have the baby boom they are hoping. guest: personally i doubt they will have a baby boom. it's unavoidable, but there will be certain increases in opportunity ratios. they were constrained by the policy, but it's unlikely they will have a major boon. the question is, will it be as problem, asthat age it is in japan? other countries maintain growth potential is that immigration policies. in japan, they don't have many immigrants. it depends in china.
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,here is fiscal room in china they could get subsidies for having children. it is still open. yvonne: it's great to have you today. rishaad:, the sky's the limit. we look at how china's aviation ambitions could take on some of the industries biggest names. yvonne: details coming up after the break. ♪
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yvonne: welcome back. you are watching "asia edge." china is preparing to add another global domestically designed airliners. rishaad: we have been following 919 from blue print to rollout. what does this mean for china or for the global aviation industry? reporter: it basically means we
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have another competitor to come into the market that has been dominated by boeing and airbus. china has been very focused on growing its aviation industry, because they are expecting this to help them to move into the industrializeded countries by 2020. a lot is at stake for them with the development of the aviation industry. rishaad: the thing is at the end of the day, we have a playmaker that has sold only to domestic clients. the next challenge will be getting overseas customers, right? reporter: yes, so far more than 500 commitments they have actually gotten, the majority have been from chinese companies. the next step is houston they can gain the -- how soon they can gain the confidence of foreign companies to move into and by the planes.
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be kind to houston the maintenance can happen. yvonne: you talk about the plane being in the initial stages, but what challenges do we see for them when they face big names like airbus and boeing? reporter: you have to also this plane has been in the works for many years. there have been a lot of delays major fights, and because of these delays, delivery is expected to be in 2018 from the original earlier plan of 2016. they do have to somehow regain foreign entities that this aircraft will give them the performance that the chinese promise. to them.are on rishaad: the latest on the attempts to get into the civil aviation business, the
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narrowbody aircraft coming into the market. first flight was mentioning. yvonne: that's it for us here. see you back here tomorrow. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world. love or like? naughty or nice? calm or bright? but at bedtime ...why settle for this? enter sleep number. don't miss the semiannual sale going on now! sleepiq technology tells you how you slept and what adjustments you can make. she likes the bed soft. he's more hardcore. so your sleep goes from good to great to wow! gift the best sleep of your life to your whole family. only at a sleep number store. right now save $500 on the veteran's day special edition mattress with sleepiq technology. know better sleep with sleep number.
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