tv On the Move Bloomberg November 3, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EST
watching this morning. it's pretty dead flat looking at futures this morning. there is plenty to discuss. stocks extendpean their gains yesterday after they had their biggest monthly rally in six years. let's look at the equity market across europe. we see the ftse 100 coming pretty flat. this is pretty much in line with what the futures are indicating. the big focus has been on corporate. i will take you to some of the big movers we have been watching today. it has been a big day for earnings, starting with ubs. net incomes have more than doubled in the third quarter. looked attacks gain and set aside fewer provisions for legal probes.
it helps if the investment bank swings into profit. one thing that they did do was put forward profitability targets. we are still seeing if it will react. it doesn't look like it is moving quite yet. announced 15,000 job cuts. that will raise capital $5.1 billion. it also had that unexpected quarterly loss. it looks like it is moving down 6% in london trading. this posted a surprise increase in third-quarter profit. that is the stocks we have been watching. we're still waiting for ubs to open.
who just bring up the aussie dollar. it has been getting against most of its major peers. they sent product -- prospects to economic concerns in recent months. speaker we will talk about the rba and a couple moments time. here is what is happening in today's program. the image and scandal spread. then, the rba holds. breakoute surges and talks over dinner. the eu reform demands a day after meeting with the german finance minister. ubs, the world's largest wealth manager has reported require net incomes that more than doubled. the past six months have seen
the swiss bank outperform its european rivals. the ceo sat down with manus cranny in zurich following the release and he asked how difficult the quarter has been. >> it was a very challenging quarter. you go from an environment in which the fed was expecting to hike turned out to do exactly you're lookingea for what happened in china and the geopolitical front area i'm glad that not only did we manage the risk of the bank effectively but we managed the good times. that is the biggest success for the quarter. let's speak to manus cranny who is over in zurich. the beat. any surprises? one driven by a tax gain.
2.0 7 billion, that is where net income doubled. you of a tax credit and legal provisions that dropped this time last year. that has dropped quite dramatically. the investment bank has stellar performance. currencies and equities driving head. if you look at wealth management, it was a darn tough quarter for everybody. commodities imploded. it is anybody's guess what is happening in china. but wealth management didn't deliver the kind of target the market wants. i think the essence of the conversation was i asked on a scale of one to 10, how concerned are you? he still thinks that china has
potential to be the generator of wealth. he always seems fairly phlegmatic when you talk to him, but on this occasion he seemed fairly stoic that china and asia would be the core of where the growth comes from. bring and build blamed because we had a series of headlines this morning to not just ubs but standard chartered with 15,000 in job cuts and they will raise 3.3 billion pounds. could they stand a chance with barclays of more to come. white now and how long will this transformation take? >> i have long said that the banking industry is an enormous reload of transition. we have stories at the moment and standard chartered is a good example of a story, but we have the kind of evolutionary twist going on right now. if we start off with standard
charter, for a long time we have been looking at them wondering what will happen next. is it going to run into another regulatory crisis or was it likely to come on a wish list as an acquisition. this morning they have taken losses with a little bit of kitchen sinking under the new ceo. i suspect that after the initial stock falls, people will look at standard charter and think about it in a different way. the other side is that this wealth management thing. if the wealth managers are now focusing on this and missing something downright obvious. the business of wealth management is about wealth preservation. it is an old economy business. it is about the third and fourth generation making sure they do not blow the money.
of the wealth being created across the planet today is happening in the expanding economies, the asian economies and even elsewhere. moneyre not putting their with some swiss bank. they are the guys making their money sweat and i wonder, with the world changing, we are going to see a complete evolution that leaves many of these people in the dark. jon: manus, we were talking but standard chartered just a moment ago. of course they did all of this several years ago. the comment on the financial upheaval and the banking sector specifically?? --us: he certainly referred if you look at the depth of the report and the bloomberg story, you're seeing the return on equity delayed. i referred back to the conversation and a comment from
mcfarlane to is the chair over at barclays. his intimation is that europe needs consolidation and that you need almost this super national institution to go head-to-head with the americans. he didn't exactly agree but he did say there would be consolidations. >> i think in general, europe will need consolidation with respect to the investment banking industry. i'm not so sure we need a super national champion but we need a better competitive landscape and i think it is wrong for europe to basically not have or offer the same capabilities in terms of services to the economy and to be dependent on other regions to serve them. jon: also when it came to what you have been telling us what they are doing and what is
happening with barclays and the appointment of jeff bailey, it's a time of not being complacent. because my question was, is this a golden opportunity? if you look at the corporate side of the bank, the best results since 2010. this chimes with me because if you remember when we broke the istsche bank numbers, cryan attempted to get rid of 50% of the banking class and he doesn't want that. presumably they are clients that just don't do enough fees and if you look at what they are doing here, the best results since 2010, there have to be opportunities. i asked if he would pay up for talent, he said it is always a good option. wasn't in the business of paying up for talent but of course he will say that to me. jon: great to have you with us this morning. bill blank, final comments. deutsche bank are pulling back from the clients and a look at
the banking system in its entirety. pulling back from non-core businesses. who steps in? the whole market is going through enormous revolution. the banks have been regulated and capital ruled out of large portions. that means we are seeing a massive evolution in terms of where people go. a year ago it used to be the adage, 80% of corporate funding came through the banks. that has already done something like 40% were had non-bank lenders coming in and providing cash for corporate. that is one of the biggest is this is that we are developing. most ofoment, i spent my time not wondering about what is happening tomorrow, but trying to go out and finance pretty companies, farm companies, aviation assets. we are going direct to the insurance company. jon: you like those headlines? >> the world is changing and i suspect it will leave banks
let's get you up to speed on bloomberg's top stories. the reserve bank's of the key benchmark rate while opening the door to cuts in the future. the outlook may for the scope for further -- further easing of that policy. will cut 15,000 jobs by 2018 after reporting and on accepted quarterly loss. raise 3.3ays it will billion pounds in a rights issue. activision blizzard has agreed to buy king digital entertainment for 5.9 billion pounds. candy crush maker king digital has fallen more than 30% since the height in july of last year.
there are some of the top stories. let's get to some of your top stock stories. nejra: there is a lot moving today. i will focus on three. lower today as one of the worst performers on the stock 600. net incomes more than doubled in the third quarter. it was a beat. legalprovisions for probes. that helps them swing to a profit. year's also pushed next profitability target back a year. bmw were seeing bigger gains earlier and it is now trading pretty much flat. it posted a surprise increase in third-quarter profit. bmw is bigger picture, still locked in a battle with mercedes and audi.
trading at a flat right moving the volkswagen is lower. we are seeing it setting up a new conflict. it could actually prolonged this in missions scandal threatening to weigh it down for another what has happened is the environmental protection agency has basically made some new allegations, which vw is in implicating new models, including for the first time the porsche cayenne. that stock is moving lower. jon: it is a fresh fight for the w with more on that area hans nichols joins us from berlin. the charges come with the difference this time. volkswagen not having it. hans: volkswagen says the v6 to three liter engine are not
affected by the device software. that is the volkswagen line and they say they will work to clarify the situation. if you look at the complaint, the allegations that the epa has lodged against volkswagen they say the weather they did the application process for them wasn't entirely on the up and up. so the charge is a little different from what we had in those initial vehicles. but it is waiting the stock and down almost 4%. here is what volkswagen is saying. failedgen has once again in its obligations to comply with the law that protects clean air for all americans. in some way this is symbolic. audi and the porsche cayenne. the fact that porsche is
mueller mr. matthias came from porsche. that significant. even though the number of affected vehicles is relatively small. how is this playing out domestically given that he is at the front and center of this story? they are leading with volkswagen's denial of it. that is a slight difference. that could just be a function of the time zone and the fact that the story is fresher. from theas though morning report i have read it is more focused on volkswagen saying this isn't the case of they are looking to clarify the situation. before we thought it was just the two liter or the 1.8 with a 1.6 but the german press is
leading with the denial and the effort to clarify. jon: let's bring in bill blaine. we also had some earnings from bmw. they posted a surprise increase. the point is to go back to volkswagen and it seems to have put an implied risk perdiem across the sector. -- risk premium across the sector. >> volkswagen is one of the best examples but there aren't knock on effects and it is too early to say what is going to happen to other german carmakers in terms of their global sales. german cars benefit from this image of technological excellence. at the moment they look more like an exhausted money. are going to see a knock on effect across all the german carmakers. so who are going to be the beneficiaries.
i have been following the japanese carmakers as definite beneficiaries in the credit market but they're also getting this boost and have been doing extremely well. they also have great plot a tax to sell. they are well positioned for the electric revolution. at the same time you have american carmakers utterly ensconced in this is fascinating when they use expressions like protecting america's atmosphere. going off and buying anything except the german car. so my guess is that we haven't seen the actual sales effect the market effects are beginning to knock in and i don't think they have totally discounted the damage but we do see beneficiaries elsewhere and it is one that you really need to follow. >> the rba holds the interest rate at a record low. we're live in sydney at the other side of this break.
let's to more with bloomberg's dan petry. every meeting, it seems to be getting higher. did it just get higher again? >> it possibly did again. we saw a number of economists redacting that the rba would infect cut and that is based on the fact that the growth which transition from the once booming mining economy has transitioned to a concert -- services consumption economy and the growth has really been anemic and flat. and we did see that lower inflation report at the end of october. that means that the proverbial powder is there for the rba to cut. it is really predicated on international factors whether we see a rebound in the short-term or the pickup. add that the central bank will not be unhappy with the current rate of the australian dollar and around $.72. >> how much of this shifts from
the china story? is that the story for australia? jon: absolutely. and is a very good point. i can take you back to when the australian dollar was $.95. and i had a crushing effect on domestic exporters. aussie dollar it does allow the economy to be far more competitive. case of the rba they don't necessarily want to do much more to stoke the already high housing rices which would pressure the aussie to be taken over by what the fed is doing. the aussie dollar would see that as a negative for the currency. jon: bill blaine is still with us. the situation in australia is lost a proxy for what is
happening in china. we look at the ranks at -- at the banks of how much they are going to transform. does australia need to follow suit? >> it is more than just australia being up proxy for china. i think central banks are waking up to the brutal reality of what happens when you have a deflation target but also zero interest rates. they don't go together. if you have zero interest rates they force people to pay their future obligations. , you create feather deflation which is a massive problem right now. what will happen is the fed will more likely look 50-50. that as theill see
jon: welcome back to "on the move." it is good morning from me and good morning from the city of london. the ftse 100 is pretty much dead flat, 30 minutes into the session. here are the equity markets for you, the dax lower by about a quarter of 1%. the ftse 100 is dead flat with the biggest loser, standard chartered down by 5% this morning. a surprise loss at 3.3 billion pounds. morning,uilders this barrett, taylor wimpey also lower this morning. off the back of a cut from liberal.
stands out it is the aussie dollar, much stronger this morning. stronger by 0.76% against the u.s. dollar as the rba holds and refuses to cut interest rates and is higher for a third straight day. that's the situation in the market and here is the situation in politics. george osborne is taking his case to germany. in berlin, the british people do not want to be part of it ever closer union. the political correspondent sonia o'donnell is on the line for the capital. the first question is, how does this advance britain's push for reform. does it all start from here? >> it gives us a better indication of what the demands are. none of them are particularly new but it sets priority. osborne is really pushing for non-eurozone members to be given
equal protection and equal status. it is also this idea that he is looking for formal recognition that the european union has more than one currency. jon: the sticking points, there are so many. what would they be as osborne heads to germany and sits down with them? >> the sticking points remain. for his discussion with poland and other countries in eastern europe. the main issue is this idea of curving and work benefits which affect one of the keeper its bowl of the eu or freedom of movement. idea of eject thing -- ejecting is something more or less accepted. the big problem here is that osborne is in berlin and has
been talking to will think schaeuble, there is a dialogue and that in itself is progress. >> great to have you with us. for more, let's welcome in the codirector at open europe area great to have you with us. on the surface of things, getting closer to the ever closer union line, why is it so important to the u.k., and why is everything else borne out of that one line? symbolic but everything else as you suggest flows from it. they will not be in this one-size-fits-all union and there are a lot of other countries, particularly the eurozone which allows for differences in policies and structures within the eu and it can assure the u.k. public they will not be dragged further into a federal union which is a concern for many. >> do you think these issues really resonate with the general public. issues about
non-eurozone and eurozone countries it is technical and niche, by i think it is important for business and for the city there are concerns that as they integrate more deeply there will be lock on effects. they will make the rules suit their needs more than non-eurozone countries. think the broader point is we are not all going to the same destination anymore. we have some greater control over this by having safeguards by having a multi currency union. i think that does resonate and if you can say, you get the economic benefits but you are not getting dragged into a deeper political union many will say that doesn't sound bad. jon: when you look at some of the lines in this, having built a majority on the current rules that is known quite widely. is if the eunt does remove the obligation for current and future members to join the eurozone, does any of that require a treaty change?
, you wouldeal world do it through treaty change but there are other ways to do it. you can adjust the voting rules and procedures, there is precedent for that already. we saw that with the fiscal treaty for eurozone countries and that will add political more legalgive it watertight. in the longer term, these will andore temporary changes when the eurozone figures out where it is going they will have legal and treaty changes to enshrine all this for the long-term. jon: at the moment there seems to be zero recognition of the things people want changed. are we reaching a point where there seems to be some recognition of that at some point? reporter: i think that is going
to come as that negotiations get into deep space. cameron isok at what asking for, multicurrency unions and safeguards for non-eurozone members and more competitiveness, changes to eurozone benefits is a big issue, but most of the issues he may lay out next week will be acceptable to a lot of members and doable. they are also not just u.k. specific. jon: your point, the things that cameron is asking for. berlin, who is driving the campaign bus? >> that is an interesting question. my sense is that it is cameron driving a lot of it. he did his big european tour. but also has a very specific niche which is this issue with the city and safeguards around
the currency. it will be interesting given the leadership question if cameron will be to leave, who the face of the campaign as we get close. jon: the u.k. business is clearly on board with this particular campaign. the idea of the referendum and what they want from it which differs from sector to sector. you go to berlin, does this conversation resonate? there is quite a lot acting o's push for reform. they want to find a way to keep the u.k. inside. program, at on this
the bank says it will raise 3.3 billion pounds in a rights issue. the earnings come as they struggle to reduce the stock price and have the value of the bank in two years. they are more than doubling your on year. the swiss bank took a tax credit and set aside fewer provisions for legal growth happening at the investment banks. meanwhile, the lender postponed next year's rough it ability target. australiae bank of left the key benchmark rate unchanged while opening the door to cuts in the future. said theovernor outlook for inflation may afford scope for further eating -- easing of policy. there is a deal we need to talk about. activision blizzard has agreed to buy king digital for $5.9 billion. candy crush maker king digital has fallen or than 30% since the
high in july last year. let's get more with caroline hyde. let's talk about the deal. it makes sense in terms of the business model and a decent premium as well. caroline: a 16% premium over where it was trading yesterday. king digital is a european company. it was born out of sweden and registered with its headquarters here in dublin to make the most of that more appetizing corporate tax rate they have in ireland. a 60% premium sounds like a good amount, but $5.9 billion is less than the market valuation of king digital when it ipo would in 2014 -- ipo'd in 2014. but is it a one trick pony?
this is activision blizzard betting big on mobile. can you name any other franchises that king digital makes? you might get the likes of pet rescue, or farm heroes. but they have not been killer games in the way that candy crush saga was. this is reminiscent of zynga with farmville. none of them have ever been able to make another great game. so what will be different? we will sinking digital run as a separate unit. what then of the opportunities that king digital ceo is currently talking about. halladay find the next winning formula. jon: this will be a key topic of
conversation at the web summit. is this still the theme? more cash to spread -- splash across the atlantic? caroline: i think you are exactly right. this is the biggest european tech event. some people crossing the atlantic. this is that theme. we are seeing more money getting plowed back into the system with the likes of ipo's. ancient --elped angel investors and venture capital firms put more money back in. we are seeing 4 billion euros thing raised by venture capital firms. but that pales to insignificance when you see that the u.s. is raising five times that at the moment each and every year. thatly that is a concern
some of the big startups really gathering strength are an internationally present company with the likes of fin tech and funding circle. have to go to the united states's deep pockets when they want to raise more funds. anderson horowitz on the likes of looking over the atlantic for more money. this is what people want to see. are we starting to see european venture capital able to foster the growth of unicorns here in europe? this is the last year that we are going to see the web summit in dublin. it was born here. five years ago, 500 people gathered. now 30,000 delegates come. the issue is, they are moving to lisbon. that is shining a light on so many of the new tech hubs
forming around europe, but also some concern that we still need to drive more growth by european venture capital as well. jon: this is a big theme in the next 48 hours. what else is coming up this morning? caroline: we will have some great lineups of chats within companies. we will be talking more about the enterprise space and perhaps about one company building up in dublin. how will they keep up with all of the startups eating up and grabbing the market share as they go online. we will also be speaking to none other than the great grandson of henry ford. we will be speaking about technology within the auto space, how the disruption is happening there, what apps the carmaker is building, and
tomorrow, we will speak much were -- much more about richard castle. talking about index ventures. and one of the wealthiest irishman, and he has in his 20's. john collison from stripe. one of the big players when it comes to payment. technology. white is he -- payment technology. why is he in the night states? -- united states? jon: looking forward to that. 47 minutes into the session. just time for a quick stock check this morning. the ftse 100 in the green. stuck 600 up by 0.25%. the foot to 100 and standard chartered with the biggest loser there. raisingjust under 5% 3.3 billion pounds. a surprise loss this morning.
jon: one of the big corporate stories, ubs reported third-quarter net income that more than doubled. the ceo sat down with manus cranny in zurich. manus started by asking him how concerned he is about global uncertainties like china. >> it was a very challenging quarter. in addition to everything that you just mentioned, think about the seasonality you have during the summer. you go from an environment where the fed was expecting to hike and did the opposite. big changes in the sentiment and emerging markets. china and the geopolitical fronts. i'm glad that not only have we managed to raise it very effectively but also in the good times with declines and risk. that is the biggest success for the quarter. manus: the language you used, pronounced deleveraging in asia and low connectivity.
should we be concerned for 2016? >> the journey of asia and wealth creation is still intact. i feel very confident that we will continue to have a substantial part of our growth coming from asia. is going to be a more challenging environment going forwards, but we are well prepared. manus: talk about the investment bank, revamped and restructured. where did the return in equity come from and is it sustainable? >> it is very sustainable. look at the last 12 quarters, to we hadwe had -- de facto always eaten our minimum of -- beaten our minimum of 15%. we are very focused with our resources to serve clients. and have become a very successful business model.
manus: let's talk about targets. you set out some new targets. you had 21 and adjusted for them. today, the market would say that you were delaying your return on equity target of 15% by 2018. what is the response to that because it is technically a delay? >> the response is to say that we are likely to be, i feel confident that this target of 10% will be beaten. we will get closer to 15% this year. we are not delaying, we are adjusting our return on equity targets. 1.ur out of 2 > i think targets are important and they are driven by external factors. macro economical consideration. the curve on u.s., swiss francs 150euro interest rates is
basis points lower than consensus. you son newtment, regulations coming in internationally in switzerland. wehave to compensate and will work on ways to improve those targets, but they are normal adjustments and we are still very committed to our 15% return on tangible equity targets. reality of is the additional capital requirements. you have just seen the swiss demand more from that the leveraged ratio. give me the reality for shareholders of additional capital and additional regulatory requirements. >> i am in full agreement that there was a need to make some adjustments to the swiss regime. that was by far the most
demanding in our industry. the consequences are clear, we just spoke about lower return and we left tos pay for part of this. it is a higher cost of services and it will be an impact on jobs and costs. and there is an impact on the taxpayer because at the end of the day, if we make less money, we will pay less taxes. jon: manus, good to have you with us. the uncertainty of the last quarter, there are still decent numbers considering the amount of uncertainty and now it is about that going forward. where are we over the profitability target now? manus: look, this is going to come down to the mood. ubs would say that they are adjusting. that theirhrase
communications team would like me to use. they are dealing with the reality area they are telling the market that the realistic issue is you have negative rates here in switzerland. you have a third of the bond market in europe. 1.9 trillion dollars of the grand market has rates going up across the current in negative territory. the reality is the fed didn't move and are you dealing with qe? that reality is the federal reserve didn't move. the reality is it will get hard to hit that are a week with all of those headwinds less capital. plus wealth management didn't hit the numbers and profit dropped by 10%. the i be did grand and there was a bit of a tax boost that left legal charges. it will be tough for everybody to make money. jon: great to have you with us.