tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg November 11, 2015 5:00am-7:01am EST
francine: this rebalancing act. the economy is slowing the retail sales rise. $9 billion in 12 hours. portugal's opposition as the nation's prime minister waste the fallout. changes are brewing. a major merger for sab miller into ab inbev. good morning, this is "surveillance." week, talkingte a about monetary policy and foreign policy -- did you see that wage growth? tom: yeah.
francine: a little less good than expected. tom: you saw it in japan as well. one of the themes is the commodity data, showing the same gentle -- it is all gentle, quiet. francine: until it is not gentle anymore. tom: exactly. that is where we are right now. all in all, commodities. francine: looking forward to it. let's get to the first word. >> the author is now on the table for the beer deal. buying sab miller, giving them control of more than one fourth of the beer market. the weight was cleared for the deal went sab miller agreed to sell it stake in miller course in the u.s. meanwhile, the world's fourth-largest beer maker --
carlsberg plans to cut 2000 jobs, a 15% reduction. they are trying to reduce costs largely due to a drop in russian beer sales. alliance of an left-wing parties has ousted the prime minister less than six weeks after the last election. the leader of the socialist party has asked the president to form a new government. so far, no word if it will happen. russia is calling for a new syrian constitution to be drawn up. it would let syria's vote on the constitution in choose a president. bashar al-assad will play no role in developing the constitution. the proposal is being circulated among diplomats. today -- it the jet could be the start of much more than a routine trip. it was the first flight for regional airliner. japan help survive its aviation
industry after it stopped building planes a 70 years ago. it is veterans day in the u.s. you can get more on all the stories and more breaking news 24 hours a day at bloomberg.com. tom: let me get to the data check here. francine will have a board from europe. lob wedge is going on -- yields have gone nowhere in two days. euro-dollar has a little bit of straight. onto the next board. oil commodities have been sagging. no surprise. this is a number we normally don't look at -- 107.6 g-8. -- 107.68. that is something to look forward to into 2016. francine, you have another look at europe. as wene: european stocks,
are awaiting mario draghi -- more qe, will we get it? he speaks in two and a half hours. we will have to keep an eye on that. stocks are higher. theprime minister got out, president is usually very ceremonial role, but look, bond investors are less nervous, because at least we don't have that uncertainty we did two days ago. tom: the german two-year -.35 2% thais the new pressure. francine: these figures are significant. tom: it has a major effect as you exit today. francine: it does. the let's go over to commodities -- we will full visit to international relations. this is iron ore. two legs down in 2015. the basic trend is another leg down. what's different is these were
news related. down we go, straight down. this is different -- this is a persistent climb. whether it is nickel or copper or iron ore -- there is this theme of the sending. francine: and when you look at iron ore compared to the single erase, you wonder wherth the chinese are consuming differently or if it's a story investors don't want to look at. tom: and how it links and international relations. francine: our guest host for the hour, he runs a company that specializes in political risk. great to have you. we talk a lot about the massive work that janet yellen has to do, the massive work that mark carney -- if they get this wrong, this scuttles the recovery. wage growth in the u.k. today -- not as good as expected. what is it me for carnies thinking? anderson: cameron is talking
about a brexit, trying to encourage britons not to exit the eu. has security implications. one of the points that he is trying to make is that the eu needs to stay stable with countries like portugal now facing some sort of instability in terms of socialists coming to power, backed by left-wing groups that are seeking an eu exit, possibly even a nato exit. francine: i come from the u.k. many people are saying that this isn't a thing. this is david cameron putting a referendum, we don't know if he can win. we are talking about this exit,day -- if the u.k. we could see a split off of scotland. how do you model the risk? anders: you can model the risk using simulations, but i think
what you're looking at, mostly the indicators you want to pay attention to our polling in the u.k. francine: polling, and that has been disastrous. that is probably why he got it so wrong, when he was going to win the election regardless. if you look at europe, what is the biggest risk? you are talking about these extreme parties in poland with the right wing in portugal. as an american, how do you look at that? will it get better? anders: the eu is a backstop to national security globally. it is one of the two biggest global economies. from a national security perspective, we have to keep the eu solid. right now you have the segregation pressures from refugees, from putin, from anti-austerity socialists, and elsewhere. europe has to start coming
together more. tom: what' sin th's in that -- catherine mann was here the other day -- it is a sub 2% world. how do you run a diverse economy and sub 2%? it is 19th century almost. anders: you have got to keep europe -- europe has to be more united than it is currently. part of the problem is europe's -- disagreements francine: it is just a different beast. anders: they need a, and foreign policy and a stronger eu theorder to resist global pressures that are increasing. tom: coming up in our next hour, jason turner will join us.
francine: this is "surveillance." you are looking at live pictures of london, where the nation of the united kingdom remembers its war dead on this armistice day. they will serve a two minutes silence across the u.k. to remember the dead. it starts at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918, when the guns fell silent. tom: i have stood at the church in the strand, that sits in the middle of the street, the air force church.
it is really something. it is different there than it is here. plain and simple. they lived it. we went over and visited and sacrificed thousands of lives, but there is something different about the way france and the united kingdom do it. francine: also remembering the war dead around the world, and the fight on many fronts. tom: we will have a moment of silence in the next hour. francine: in the meantime, let's get the business. vonnie: the u.s. bond market closed today on veterans day. germany has cleared the way for lufthansa flight attendants and their airstrikes. they canceled more than 900 whites today. labor leaders are fighting back against efforts to restructure. in china, a record-breaking singles day for alibaba. they beat last year's market $9 sales with 12e
hours to go. jack ma is trying to reverse their plunge in market value. economic figures from china today. the week has been the worst of the financial crisis, but on the other side, retail sales climbed, the biggest climb this year, underscoring the shift in china's economy to consumer spending, playing a bigger part. francine, you have more on china. francine: i do. our chief agent correspondent joins us from hong kong. if you look at this retail data, are we looking at a more consuming -- >> good morning. after all the hits the economy has taken this year, it has been quite a surprise as retail sales have their best month in october -- best month since october.
there are signs that the consumer is doing ok, but it is not yet at the stage where it is enough to fill the gap. industries,avy investment sectors -- we saw industrial output today at its weakest since the global financial crisis. the slowest pace since 2000. while, yes, the consumer is coming on nicely, and we hear starbucks increasing the number of stores, apple very optimistic, it is not yet enough to fill the whole left behind by the old economy. francine: how do you match up the two? you are talking about industrial output missing estimates -- does it mean they need more time or do we have a senses utilization? this feels like a different story to four months ago. enda: you're right. the sense of crisis may not be here per se, but at the same time, a lot of economists were
hoping to see a bit more traction, a bit more evidence of stabilization as we headed into the final quarter toward the end of the year. but today's numbers indicate that the fourth quarter got off to a slow start. our gdp tracker came in around 7%, 6.6%. that demonstrates that the challenge the policymakers face in getting the economy to her they want it -- there was a disconnect on the headline basis. gdp might be ok, but the underlying indicators are quite patchy and mix. francine: enda, thank you so much. let's get back to you anders. was you look at china -- i always told that china would start rebalancing once they felt comfortable, that they have a real place in the world. transition,g this because they have found a new place, and have been welcomed by the u.k. and u.s.? anders: china is at a fork in
the road right now. on the one hand, wanting to expand geographically in the south china sea in their indian area, even in japan. on the other hand, the united states and other powers are encouraging china to take a quote-unquote, stance -- francine: that language usually does not help. they usually feel lectured at. anders: true, however some of the things they have done in the south china sea are frankly irresponsible from an international stability perspective. shoal is aorough territory that they have semi-occupied, it is part of the philippines, which is a u.s. treaty ally. we are bound by treaty to defend that area. tom: so what are the outcomes of showing this flag as we have in
recent days, the secretary of defense attending as well? anders: what's interesting is that the united states has really stepped up the plate in terms of signaling strategically to china that we are not going to allow china to infringe on u.s. freedom -- tom: was it unilaterally or were there allies involved? anders: we do have allies in the region you have done operations in the south china sea. tom: how does japan do operations in the south chinese see, given that there's so much emotion? i'm sorry to see the japanese flag in the south chinese sea -- it must be beyond emotional. anders: true. japan has changed and it is time for the world to recognize they are not 1942. tom: does asia agree? anders: asia is beginning to agree. koreacluding china, and
which has a former adversary -- part of the issue is that china is, on purpose, or any aspect the story of 1945 and earlier about japan. francine: so why? anders: because they see japan as the adversary. china's growth -- part of the reason why china's -- some people believe that part of the reason china is being adversarial is to draw attention from some of their slowing growth. francine: anders, thanks so much. he will head back to china. record sales -- $9 billion in 12 hours. we are live at the heart of the action in beijing. ♪
francine: i'm francine lacqua here in london. tom's a bit grumpy because i'm leaving. tom: are you doing nfl foot this weekend? francine: i'm sorry -- english? tom: it's a raging thing in new york. let's do the promos. francine: let's talk about the great stories you can check out on our website. anheuser-busch has made us will ceilingr sab miller, a long anticipated deal that would combine the two largest brewers into one. u.k. unemployment fell to its lowest rate in more than seven years. the labor market continues to
improve, the watch out for wage growth. suffered another strike by flight attendants. the airline was forced to cancel 931 scheduled flights. don't worry, i'm not always times a. lufthansa. on leave time they've already consolidated much and risk national pride. let's get to china. another look at that singles day. is moving the ma needle on china's rebounding economy. emily chang spoke exclusively with the alibaba president, and asked him if alibaba and amazon are in competition. >> our strategy is not about competing with amazon. small companies that we have about findingr
the investment opportunities that will be future competitors. we are much more focused on starting to learn about the domestic market. vonnie: let's head to beijing. we have emily chang. first of all, give us the scorecard. it was a record-breaking day for alibaba. emily: hey, vonnie. we are inside the water tube, that iconic olympic venue, watching the numbers come in. alibaba is at $11.5 billion in transactions, transacted on the platform so far. we still have six more hours to go. are the way above the $9 billion record hit last year. they are also telling us that more than 70% of this e-commerce is coming from mobile. 70% are happening on smartphones -- and that is a good sign of how they are weathering the transition. we are in beijing, on what they are calling a global event. a lot more i international brands.
vonnie: this idea of having a basic beijing -- how do the chinese respond advertising? beijingook, we are in because this is the financial center of china, the capital of china. alibaba certainly wants to raise the pro while of this event. ist alibaba has been doing working hard to get merchants across china on the platform, but also international merchants like apple, costco, burberry -- chinese people want iphones and they are very asked and said, so if they can buy it today, it is one of the most popular products. vonnie: what is one thing that surprises you the most? visit the fact that they only use mobile, that they aren't on laptops, or is that the thing the chinese want to buy? know, one of the things that is interesting is that growth has been one of the
most popular items -- they are saying people want to see, chinese people want to see international brands. they want cherries from the pacific northwest, avocados for mexico. that is something alibaba will be focusing on, and they are not interested in local commerce for cross-border commerce. francine: interesting -- the battle for fresh food. emily chang will also be speaking with jack ma. don't miss it -- it will be great to see who he is going after. this is bloomberg's "surveillance," streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg.com. we also have remembrance day in the u.k., and mario draghi speaking later. ♪
president of the republic of france and buckingham palace as they try to figure out how two nations move on from world war i. it is remembrance day in london -- i still remember the poppies in the moat of the tower of london. francine: it was last year. tom: did you see that? what was that like to see? francine: there were so many poppies, every poppy for one of the dead lost in the first world war. it reminded everyone that life is precious. tom: it was extraordinary. we say good morning to all across continental europe. let's go now to our first news. vonnie: veterans day in the u.s., the bond market will be closed in observance. anheuser-busch inbev has offered to buy sab miller in ideal that would create the world's largest beer maker. if it goes through, they would control more than one fourth of the global market. they reached the agreement last week after weeks of haggling. it cleared when sab miller
agreed to sell its stake in the miller coors joint venture. it's the singles day shopping extravaganza, and china has taken half as long to sell the same amount of products is last year. includingion so far, nike and levi's and nothing to do with babies. refugees across europe are getting increasingly desperate as the weather turns colder on the greek border, waiting to enter macedonia. republicans a squared off or their fourth presidential debate. they took the stage in milwaukee -- one of the more contentious issues with illegal immigration. >> they are doing high fives the clinton campaign right now when
they hear this. that is the problem with this. the presidency, and the way you win the presidency is the practical plan, allow people to earn legal status where they pay a fine, where they work, where they don't commit crimes, where they learning lush. >-- learn english. >> the politics of be very different if a bunch of lawyers and bankers were crossing the rio grande, or if a bunch of people with journalism degrees were driving down the wages in the press. vonnie: they also clashed over debt. cruz said big banks should never be bailed out again. you can get more on these and other breaking stories at bloomberg.com. francine: thank you. let's focus on the euro-dollar, the pound on the back of that u.k. unemployment figure, declining. we are joined by stephen gallo. great to have you on the program.
when you look at that unemployment rate drop in the u.k., it does suggest that there is no more slack in u.k. labor. what does that mean for carney's thinking? stephen: i wouldn't say it indicates that there is no more slack. we have seen a pickup in productivity this year in the u.k., and that is reflected in the labor market data. in other words, slower growth in overall employment, and generally no significant declines in jobless games. -- gains. we have been below the 7% unemployment rate threshold that the bank set out in 2013 for a significant period of time now. it is less relevant, considering that the move below 7% having contributed to a very significant pickup in wage pressures. more importantly, with the bank of england's operating, doing right now is operating between two of the three knockouts it's beingt in 2013, the first
preventing inflation expectations from becoming unanchored; two, financial stability risks. francine: given all of that and the softening of wage growth we saw in today's figures, when to you expect an interest rate hike? stephen: may of next year, but we also think it is looking more likely that the bank of england will also deliver a tightening of macro prudential policy, either before may or in line with the may rate hike. we have the profile for sterling relatively flat. tom: stephen, want to c had arate -- hsb massive outlay or of stronger euro, weaker dollar. i got a terrific amount of mail on that. euro-dollar -- explained the
decision. why are you weak euro or strong euro? stephen: we are no significant valleys in the euro. we think the improving domestic picture is going to prevent capital outflows from being extreme. we also think financial market tensions may crop up in 2016, particularly on the e.m. side. that will be relatively supportive, but if you look at the trend, it is still suggesting that there will be limited appreciation of the euro in 2016. tom: one more question -- we look at asia dxy, the asia blended currency group, is that a good proxy for emerging markets? stephen: it is a good proxy for what's going on in china. we think that region will under per or mother parts of the as., for example mexico, china finds a new economic
equilibrium. tom: stephen gallo, take you so much. -- thank you so much. this happened yesterday -- it was stunning. francine, i need your interpretation. this is economic, but we have three people who nobody would ever think would be fed at present. -- fed present. we're going on here is bank-of-england-ing the fed. i've never seen this. francine: is that a bad thing or a good thing? tom: i don't know. we have a chair in washington, and in 1917 -- the presidents are usually economists. a candidate for the rich and fed. or they are business guys,
proper oxford suits. it will be interesting to see -- that wei would argue are an unprecedented, uncharted territory, trying to fix the real economy. tom: this is so cool. applebaum -- i love what he says. thatipatetic career perfectly describes mr. cache kari -- a distrusted the hinterlands -- we are not doing this in the normal way. we are seeing this in international relations. there is a distrust. anders: what is your parallel? tom: my parallel is whether brussels or washington, people are saying that these are wrong, that -- anders: they are trusting -- tom: they are to trusting the
center of the institutions. francine: with cash party, it's interesting. he has a washington, d.c. background. the other interesting thing is in 2017 -- he will carry on the coda -- let me ask you a simple question -- how much do you know -- do we go back to our they dovish or hawkish in there thinking when they are allies the u.s. economy, or is it more nuanced? tom: it is more nuanced in that it is away from the typical macro model. business, more of a finance continuum that these guys work on. put the picture up once more -- i would never -- vonnie: if you look at some of -- thistes, it is also
goes to the crux of -- are we measuring productivity and inflation the right way? it's a big deal because you have to measure it differently because of regulation. tom: keep this up. mctier -- those are the names within these three. , a giant iner anhematics -- robert mctier, acclaimed georgia school economist. richard fisher was a little bit like these guys. francine: boil it down. what does it mean? are we having more dissent? tom: that's a great question -- we may be very bank of england-y. kashkari will become a
voting member until 2017. tom: are we going to end up like you guys, where you have adam pozen come out -- we has never done that in the u.s. francine: and there is so much dissent that question people whether it is held. -- whether it is helpful. tom: i just think it is a seat change in all that we do, when you see these three people. francine: coming up next, we speak with the ceo of carlsbad. this is bloomberg television, streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg.com. i am putting on my best dutch accent for tom keene full ♪ . ♪
tom: in america, it is remembrance day. we say veterans day across the united states -- many schools and government offices are closed today. vonnie was talking about the market's close as well in various parts of the world. we say good morning. francine, more beer. they will all be one beer company. what is your favorite beer? francine: i don't drink beer. i'm european, get with the program. tom: you've never had a genesee? francine: it's too early. we will deal with it after -- [laughter] francine: let's get back to the news. a megadeal between ab inbev and sab miller for $107 billion. that means cover competition for the fourth-largest brewer, which released earnings this morning and says they are cutting 2000 jobs. joining us is cees't hart.
great to have you on the program. talk to me about your biggest concern. you had to cut jobs, your share price is doing well on the back of it. how confident are you that you don't have to to balance shareholder pressure by cutting costs further, to make it better than what's happening in russia? cees't: well, the good news is that we have good performance in q3, and that makes us more confident as well. business ishat the doing better, and it outperforms the russian business. in the past we have had 50% coming from russia and it is now only 20%. but your brand, the carlsberg brand, declined in 2% -- what can you do to revive it? cees: it is mainly because of
the u.k.. orientedad a volume that willhere, but change into a more value-oriented strategy. we have been very successful in the u.k., and put new management in place. francine: do you feel under pressure to consolidate, that you may be a takeover target? cees: well, that's very difficult. our main shareholders in the foundation. if you look at the consolidation in europe, it's an interesting place to be at the moment. francine: what is your major challenge over the next 12 months? will it continue to be cost-cutting, or do you have to get market share at the aches ends of -- at the expense of the bottom line? cees: we have enable in the last couple months to take stock of the situation. we have a program that was promised to
ourselves and to the outside world that we would have the benefits improvement program, and coming to 12 months we will focus on cutting that on stream, by which we are delivering these benefits by 2018. francine: you are mentioning that you revamp your business is in the u.k., but also china -- you are expecting to update investors in a couple months. talk to me about the u.k. and how you look at the political risk of britain leaving the eu. with that her demand for beer, and are you taking any contingency plans ahead of that probability? in the u.k., so we have an operating company in the u.k. a full supply chain. it will eventually break up out of the euro, but will have an
immediate impact on our business. francine: thank you so much. it was great to have someone who has to deal with that talk about -- monetary policy, currency fluctuation, weak demand talk about his business. tom: that is the elephant in the room -- cheap money. absolute free money, moving beer, the all-time cash flow aircraft carrier. they will make an even bigger aircraft carrier. francine: the chief economist was making this point -- she was concerned that there are megamergers, and this may not be the case. megamergers that don't stand the test of time. tom: where his government in europe on this? is there a group of the united kingdom that says you can't do this? francine: there have been in the past, but when you look at the growth -- tom: exactly. francine: even the french, which have always battle to stay french -- tom: i underscore, this is a
tapestry that is across all of everything we do. economics, finance, investment, international relations -- i'm sorry, i would suggest that it affects your world of international relations. it is not japan manchuria 1937, but there is the weak economic growth. anders: with the big economies in the u.s. and europe, the economies you are seeing in the emerging markets -- those are the guys who at least potentially have higher growth. even though they are lower growth they are still higher than we are. tom: we can still talk about the middle east when we return. in our next hour, the chief investment strategist, the force is too tedious research partners. i would also like to point out that he is the number one proponent of remembrance day. stay with us. ♪
their soldiers and sailors. right now, vonnie quinn. vonnie: the bond market is closed today in the u.s. the unemployment rate in the u.k. has fallen to its lowest level in many years, down 1/10 of a percentage point. the bank of england were cast that unemployment would keep selling for the next two years. the justice department is suing united continental airlines. and wants to block them from acquiring more takeoff and landing' spots. it would fortify their monopoly position at the airports. united says that they ain't to improve service. a businesspproved takeover. the deal would create a problem that would create more oil than opec members in ecuador. that's our latest bloomberg business flash. tom: a headline in the new york
times -- gop candidates battle sharply on immigration. the headline did not say gop battle sharply on syria, on saudi arabia, the middle east, or anything else having to do with this nation's international relations. a wonderfully eclectic perspective on our international relations. how are we doing? give me a score caughrd on how we are dealing with his cacophony in the middle east. anders: in the middle east, the united states is -- i think we have a fairly correct -- i think obama is doing fairly well in the middle east. it is chaos, but the u.s. strategy is ok. we are disengaged from the chaos , because it is to some extent an on winnable war. tom: do we wait for mr. putin to screw up, or do we be more proactive? anders: well, we don't have to
wait because he is already screwing up. he is dropping bombs, getting a lot of attention. in response, he is getting targeted by isis. tom: it hasn't moved oil. francine: no, that if we go back to the relationship with france and russia -- if you deal with isis, why is russia screwing up? he outmaneuvered everyone, took everyone off guard, seems to have a policy that gets his people behind him. anders: well, he is making a lot of noise internationally. i went and say that he is outmaneuvering us. i think we are outmaneuvering him. he is getting drawn into this quagmire that is the middle east, and we are getting out of it. he doesn't have any money to fight a war in the middle east. we even have enough money, which is part of why we are getting out of it. the fact that he is a broiling himself in that area, to me,
is maybe a pr trick for his own population. francine: but he's not getting sucked in. this was a conscious decision by vladimir putin to be the savior. it also detracts from ukraine. anders: absolutely. ukraine is still in the air -- we are still hearing about ukraine from the europeans. it is still a big issue. we are not going to forget it. nato secretary-general's have called for a stronger nato presence in the baltic countries and in the eastern european countries. we are definitely not forgetting that. meanwhile, putin is wasting money in the middle east. he is trying to protect the naval base there, and he has got to protect assad. tom: what would henry kissinger do? pro, at our as a diplomacy now is radically different from the time of dr. kissinger, or are we moved on to some new evolution?
-- what wehink are seeing now is that our military is trying to balance against china as opposed to -- we are balancing against about. we are rallying the allies in europe to defend against putin. we are rallying the allies in asia to run against china. tom: thank you so much. this has been a great two days in a row. anders corr with core analytics. an update on international relations. william nyehour, the science guy is opposed to pope palouse a. -- pope-a-looza. stay with us. ♪
courts of justice -- am i right on that? i think it is right around the corner from our bloomberg headquarters. jim o'neill is there as well. francine: all of these people coming together to remember the dead. it is an honors day, and it reminds us about the fragility of life. tom: it is a city that stops for this, but it is all of europe as well. francine: it is paris. the european union was created to stop this from happening. criticism lot of about the fact that we cannot speak with one voice, but let's remember why. thiswe say good morning on veterans day, on economics, finance, and investment. here is vonnie quinn with our
business news. here in the u.s. the bond market is posed for veterans day -- is closed for veterans day. the onion -- anheuser-busch in bed is offering to buy sab miller. they would control one fourth of the global beer market. regulators in countries would have to sign off on the deal. coors has signed for $12 billion. rush is calling for a new syrian constitution to be drafted within 18 months. it would let syria vote on the constitution and choose a president. nohar al-assad would play role in developing that constitution. the proposal has been circulated among diplomats. the associated press attained a copy. 14 refugees trying to reach greece drowned when there boats sank offhen their boat
the turkish coast. about 4000 are at a greek border village waiting to enter macedonia. immigration is a hot button talking point for the republican presidential candidates. there was no consensus on the issue during last night positive they in milwaukee. remarks by jeb bush and ted cruz showed how devices the -- how divisive the controversy is for the party. are doing high fives the clinton campaign when they hear this. we have to win the presidency, and the way you win the presidency is to have practical plans that allow people to earn legal status with a pair fine, where they work, where they do not commit crimes, where they learn english. it cruz: the politics of would be very different if a bunch of lawyers and bankers were crossing the rio grande, or if a bunch of people with journalism degrees were coming
over and driving down the wages in the press. vonnie: the candidates argued about financial reform. jeb bush called for higher capital prices for banks. and this was the first fight for a regional airliner built by mitsubishi. you can get more on these other breaking stories at the new bloomberg.com. tom: vonnie quinn, thank you so much. very quickly on the data check, as a quiet to the market. futures up three at the bloomberg terminal. yields remarkably over the past two days -- in our previous hour, i noted commodities are a little bit soggy all in all. right now, jason trennert is joining us. he has been without question in new york the leading proponent of remembering to remember
remembrance day. you have been out front on the resurging interest in our world war 1 heritage. jason: for many years i would travel to the u.k. and the u.s. and iticular, and canada, started learning more about people wearing the poppy and the scale of it. why in the united states do we not do that? i found out that we used to do it until memorial day was made a federal holiday by president nexen. the tradition -- by president nixon. the tradition comes from a poem by john mcrae, in flanders fields. we send out over 1000, probably a couple thousand a year to people in the united states to try to get them to take it as seriously as -- tom: to me, the seachange was
visit to the tower of london a couple of years ago. thisine: when you look at and the european union with his voices, you must remember that it is flawed, it is a flawed union, but this is why it was created. jason: absolutely. i think it has got -- we can debate about the european union, but the basis for it is obviously not in question. tom: time has moved on. at the beginning of the financial crisis, it was ugly and we have moved on, and we have a symbol of that today. this was our generous electric. geis extraordinary to see get back to a different ge of eight years ago. the symbolism, jason trennert, 's company getting
up to $40 a share is intriguing, isn't it? jason: it is. about exiting its financial businesses. that is intriguing because there may be a sense that you are finally getting to the point where the fed will raise interest rates and normalize the yield curve, and ge is thinking about getting back to its roots as an industrial company. good fornow they are the banks. are they good for industrial america? jason: to the extent that they indicate stronger real gdp growth, it is good for industrials and energy. i feel very strongly. we have been telling our clients we are at the point now where good news for the economy is good news for the stock market. the usefulness of excessive monetary policy, in my view, has been long passed for both the economy and the financial markets. now you really need growth. francine: but are you sure stock markets are not going to have a
huge correction once the cheap money gets pulled away. it depends on the pace. i cannot think of anything that is more discussed than the fed rate hike. i think people understand especially that markets move pretty quickly. after last friday's payroll employment report, i think it is clear that the fed wants to tighten, at least start to normalize interest rates, and the fed is a long way away from being tight. 2% andinflation rate is you are raising the funds rate have aasis points, you steep yield curve to begin with. it is the pace of the rate hikes that make more of a difference, it will be good to proceed cautiously. so much. thank you coming up, it is singles day for china, and alibaba is setting
tom: we say good evening to asia and to hong kong as well. thank you for watching in hong kong and across the pacific rim. let's get to our business flash. here's vonnie quinn. vonnie: an airline strike grounding about 100,000 would be travelers today. germany canceled 900 flights because of the walkouts by attendance. at thes are on the way fourth-largest beer maker. calls of denmark, planning 2000 layoffs, a 15% reduction after being hurt by slumping sales in
russia. h our interview with the carlsberg ceo later today on bloomberg.com. a single day in china break records for alibaba. let's stick with single day now. emily chang spoke with the ceo of alibaba on the future of the company. >> in this sector, e-commerce, where we are approaching close to 400 million consumers, the consumer desires are changing dramatically, and a big part of our strategy domestically means we have to be positioned with the right investments and assets to satisfy that demand. vonnie: for more, emily chang joins us from beijing. she is inside the cube in front of the huge war room monitors.
are they concentrating on the chinat cities, or is role -- is rural china part of it, to bank? emily: it is happening in cities coming in the countryside, and around the globe. alibaba is not just focused on the cities, they are very much focus on rural areas. that is where the biggest competitor, jb.com, is focused. is gettingme international brands like apple, macy's, selling to chinese consumers. vonnie: is it a purely young holiday? it is almost a holiday that is a hallmark that alibaba started six years ago to target young people. his alibaba getting in on the buying? actually, it dates back
to the 1990's when college students said we want a reaction to valentine's day, we want to be able to celebrate even though we do not have someone to celebrate with. yes, alibaba is focused on making this an international holiday, and it is people across the board of all ages. they want a deal like everybody else, like you and i. everybody wants a good deal. vonnie: emily chang, thank you so much. ring a something back from beijing -- bring us something back from beijing. we have read he'll sales data out of china earlier today. day,d not include singles but it did include last month when sales were up. slowly rebounding, but we are not getting there fast enough, our wait? jason: that is probably right. at least what we are telling clients is that the bar for a hard landing in china is quite high. that is because it is largely a managed economy.
i would never argue that what china is doing as an economic policy is a good allocation of capital, but by the same token, when you not particularly worried about profits, you are worried more about social stability and you have currency reserves of $3.5 trillion, you can move the lever differently. i think the experiment tried to get the economy more service and consumer oriented, my opinion is if it is not working they will revert back to more industrial economy to make sure that economic growth is at least in some sort of range that keeps people chipper. tom: does your colleague daniel clifton suggest there will be a new dialogue between washington and china? jason: i think that really depends on who wins. tom: there has to be a new -- jason: i think you saw this on the stage last night. there is clearly more of a discussion about what the middle
class in particular is getting out of some of these various trade deals. itre is a general sense that is good for the elites, it is good for capital, but it may not be particularly good for labor. it is not surprising if china becomes the big campaign issue over the next year. now we are saying it is glass half-full because they are spending, industrial was not great, but it is not as bad as it thought. when will the market become more sophisticated? jason: looking at china closely for 10 years, the conclusion i have come to is that largely china only experiences hard landings when you have a very high commodity price. when you have low commodity prices, because you have so many people living at a subsistence level, the chances that having a hard landing are low.
i think the sophistication comes in not trying to make it too sophisticated, which is to say that china is running the same play over and over again, which is largely based on social stability. it is not based on maximizing profits. i do not think that is a good system over the longer term, but i also think the bar for getting a real hard landing in china is very high. other events have to happen. tom: jason trennert is with us. we can go three hours nonstop. the only one that can top that -- easilylliam nye week ago three hours with bill nye. he is out with a new book. jason trennert would not wear a bow tie. will be here. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." jason trennert is with us. we are thrilled to bring up the "morning must-read," william nye . he is more than the science guy. i think he has done so much more for education in america than just talk about science. he joins us now. this is in project syndicate as we go to paris on climate change. he gives us a history lesson. the existence of greenhouse effect has been known to science its 1824. the atmosphere was acting as an insulator.
have been talking about this for 150 years. where is the catalyst to do something echo bill: this show, this morning. this is going to be the turning point in human history right now! tom: the coffee was good. bill: last night the conservatives had a debate. nobody talked about climate change. in fact, someone proposed abandoning the department of energy. vonnie: they have plutonium. the department of energy -- nice tie. tom: that is very good. it is the periodic table. bill: this is my of ties. it is fun. francine: your tie -- they are
just ties? bill: except they make a symmetrical knot. it is a balanced knot. francine: i want to go back to the crazies that are running to be your next president. bill: you used the term "crazies ." i am not sure you guys are in finance-- you guys in -- you have to have income and things. and there was this idea to cut the tax code from 73,000 pages 23. from 73,000 pages to three pages. standpoint,tific where did you get that number? jason: i would like to defend some of the crazies a little later. tom: how does the science community defend itself not
against intelligent critics, but critics with no thought involved at all? bill: here is what i say to everybody. the first time you hear that astrology is not true, you are in denial about it because you met a psychic who knew that your grandmother had a white car. guy the othera day who believes that his spiritual preparedness allows him to walk on hot coals, but that is not true. you can just walk on hot coals. the first time you hear it, you do not get it. but after a couple of years, chipping away -- is with us.e he has a smart collection of bowties. more importantly, his discussion on science in america. stay with us. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,
it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am with tom keene in new york. he is trying on bowties. let's get to news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: that is some picture.
we will show you later. buy sab is offering to miller for $107 billion. the combined company would control want than one fourth of the available here market -- of the available beer market. to stay in the miller coors joint venture in the u.s. molson coors is buying that for $12 billion. president obama is expected to bill,he defense spending even though he opposes moving prisoners from guantanamo bay. the president ran for office planning to close -- pledging to close guantanamo bay. that is in cuba. was a majorin talking point among the eight top-ranked candidates in the debate last night. supports his
efforts in syria. >> i never met vladimir putin, but i know enough about him to know he is a gangster. he controls a $2 trillion economy and is using it to build despite the fact that his economy is a disaster. vonnie: the democratic presidential hopefuls will debate again on saturday. i want to say it is also veterans day in the u.s. and the bond market is closed. headline, ina terms of the horse race, it is this. nothing much happened, so the march of republican party actors toward marco most likely will continue." you managed to see some of the debate. jason: i did. i watched all of it. vonnie: what was your take away? jason: my take away is hard to be dignified on a stage with eight other people.
it will be better for all of us when they have few people -- fewer people on the stage. i do think some of the basic messages, as a markets person, ly at it,arochial small governments make a lot of sense. i think it was more winning by not losing, was a big part of the strategy for the people last night. tom: i am trying to get on bill's beautiful planetary bow tie here. stem is all the rage. is still a, but it wide dialogue inside science. where do you jumpstart that? it has to start in schools, doesn't it? bill: yes, that is where it starts. we have to get science in every
grade, including preschool. passion for anything is really before you are 10 years old. day inng science every every grade is, it is cheap. teaching algebra is not an expensive thing, but we have to emphasize that. we started down this road and we seemed reasonable. we will have core curriculum, course standards. everybody was all exciting about that reading, writing, arithmetic, until the educators brought in a desire to teach extraordinary things. people that were all for , and then it was a matter of states rights. what keeps the united states in the game economically is innovation, and innovation comes from science. science at some level depends at some level on basic research. tom: i think of bill bennett's
wonderful book on education, the wonderful path of it -- jason everybody has kids taking linear algebra in the fourth grade. fine. there is another america that is removed. how do you drag that other america back into a curiosity about the bill nye world? jason: so when i was young, we have the space program. -- bill: so when i was young, we had the space program. when you have this achievable goal, it energizes everybody. i remembera kid, this tremendous optimism about the future. then people got caught up in an unpopular war, they got caught up in making chevy vegas and ford pintos, and mediocre products. i think it is the result of losing a big idea, a big vision.
so we can explore mars, we can explore europa. europa is the moon of jupiter that has twice as much seawater as earth. we would change the world. tom: what did you think about the movie "martian"? vonnie: matt damon. bill: the guy in the book is even cooler. is silicon much valley adding to the effort? they maintain they are, but there is a small contingent that wants to build a colony on mars. want a colonyot on mars. a lot of this is american. you colonize a place, you march across, you make maps, and you take over. but on mars there is nothing to eat. there is no water to drink.
the other store very everything that you would notice right away, you cannot breathe there. francine: let's talk business. is there enough funding? because there is austerity even in the u.s., there are significant cuts in budgets that could help? bill: for example, we depend on burning fossil fuels. i walk around this office. everybody is at a computer. you guys are at a computer, you have your electric cell phone ishines, and everything produced by electricity that is largely produced by burning fossil fuels. we have an extraordinaire contingent in the u.s. of people who deny climate change, who deny that this is the biggest problem facing humankind. so we are not moving fast enough. if all the energy in the u.s. were produced renewable a from wind and solar, we would change the world. the unexploited resource is wind energy off the east coast of the u.s. there is enough to power the whole place -- canada, the u.s.,
mexico -- several times over. tom: just getting it going is half the battle. jason: can i go back to what tom talked about before? what do you do for the people who are not going to go to college? from -- there is no question that we want stem education up and down the educational spectrum, but not everyone is going to college. is maybe what tom -- i do not want to put words in your mouth -- with 7% of the workforce in manufacturing, 93% in services and government spending, how do you get more people employed that are not necessarily going to be college-educated? fee. we have a we cannot say tax. we have a fee on carbon dioxide. if everybody had to pay for the production of carbon dioxide,
and when we get into natural gas leakage, when you go to import something from another country to this one, you have to pay a fee for the ship making carbon willide at sea, and this act like a terrorist. we will celebrate what people ame -- this will act like tariff. people withbrate skills. we could easily, in my opinion, go back to a locally based manufacturing, with nudges, not revolutionizing everything within a weekend. meantime, what we have is innovation. jason: you can also do that by completely exploding or fossil fuels and dropping the cost of energy down so it would make a lot of sense.
it would make manufacturing better here. bill: when you do that, the world gets warmer. when the world gets warmer, the ocean swells. if you go to a place like miami beach, florida, the city engineer has now managed to put in regulations so that you have to make the owl let's on the wall, the light switches, set up so that they can be raised twice over the coming 30 years so that you can repave, or the verb in re-pours rp -- is twice. we are going to come back and talk on this. it is a theme as we go to the paris meetings in early december. we will come back with bill nye and jason trennert. "bloomberg " this morning, ian bremmer will join them in
francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua with tom keene in new york. we had those two minutes of silence for those who lost their lives in world war i. let's get to the bloomberg business/with vonnie quinn. vonnie: the bond market is closed for veterans day in the u.s. the government wants to stop -- unitedtinental says it would improve service. t-mobile is adding its upper tier phone customers a phone
free of charge. soon the video will be dvd f.ality, not high de a setback for the fantasy sports business. is york's attorney general saying that the fantasy sports contests about to illegal gambling. both companies insist what they do is legal. tom: jason trennert is with us, and bill nye is with us. joe boxer.t with these are real bowties, not clip ons. rules.e says science bill nye moving the dialogue forward. support his bowtie effort with a good cause. my single best chart today is a good cause. jason trennert, help us out here on apple computer, which on any
description is up to the upper right. what a terrific chart. innovation, more ecosystem, and they move up even further. do they continue? jason: at this point it is the largest company that has ever existed in the world, and generally speaking, if they can last for a couple of years, obviously trees do not grow to the sky. there will be a certain point at which it will be difficult to go that much larger, partly because of government regulation and other things that generally tend to lead to those kinds of dominant markets. tom: how do we bring the apple ecosystem to all americans, worldwide, in academics? it has been life-changing in science, in high schools, etc., and i would suggest it could be life-changing in liberal arts. bill: you are talking about when you have an apple phone and an apple laptop and an apple ipod, everything is consistent. the big thing that apple provides, in my opinion, is
service. when these things are continually being upgraded and revised -- and i am open-minded, of course -- i am a big apple guy. but i do not see why somebody could not compete with that. it is a way of thinking. on the windows screen, in order to turn it off, you hit the start menu. it is just a way of designing. tom: what is it going to do to textbooks? page textbooks that cost 250 bucks? we probably did not have the same textbooks. tom: are we going to get these on an ipad, and are we going to learn the same things? furthermore, they
will be continually upgraded. pluto as aised with full-time planet. upon further review, pluto is this other type of object. it has a different orbit and is in a different part of the solar system. that will be in the book, it will be in the ipad. furthermore, you have probably experienced a nook style reader where it does not take as much electricity to make it glow. but with that said, i get great joy out of the smell of a nice book. so books are not going to go away. the future will be better. as we learn things, the pace of heatingic discovery is up, exponentially faster and faster. kids, andi have two
when they look at a picture, they try and make it bigger. this is a new generation. bill: they will learn how to emulate these objects. they will figure it out. francine: why aren't books surviving? asked publishers. i am not in the book business. but more books are purchased than ever. talk to bill nye about lessons learned in 2015 from the science of microbiology and for rolla gee. later this morning, bloomberg's conversationith a of alibaba. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
excuse me, i was trying to put on a bill nye bowtie. euro-dollar was at 1.06 yesterday. a churn, i would say, to the markets. francine? the wage growth figure, and the unemployment figure out of the u.k. "see what "bloomberg has coming up with david westin and stephanie ruhle. you have great guests. stephanie: we are really going to span the globe, kicking it off with a big-money meeting in england. we will be joined by the bank of england economist andy holding -- we talk about it all the time we will have to take ourselves to asia. tom mentioned it -- singles day, not valentine's day -- the day to buy yourself lots of things. we will be joined by founder and ceo of out, the one and only jack ma.
lastly, we will sit down with laszlo fox, who runs all human capital management at google. why do people want to be there? why do they innovate? why are they thrilled and never want to leave? francine: we are looking forward to the program. "bloomberg " has a great with probably the most dovish person at the bank of england right now. he may say he is changing his mind because we are getting more support from -- jason, david at goldman sachs put out a complex chart and was evident that dividend growth and buybacks continue. do you agree? jason: i do, largely because the cost of capital is going to stay very low. other uses of cash that might be more productive, achievee difficult to
when rates are this low. they are difficult to pull off as a corporation. it is so much easier to do things that are more immediately accretive, like share of purchases, m&a, dividends. that is likely to continue. tom: call has had the worst of the worst. it is dirt cheap, and is that in,thing we are investing that i just have got to own it? jason: my own inclination is that the regulatory overhang of it andustry would make poor long-term investment for people in the united states. i take no pleasure in saying that. i just think it is difficult to see that being a growth industry. tom: so there is the investment perspective of jason trennert. among other themes, the organization beyond call, maybe we are supposed to get there, but bill nye is with us as well. there is a price with the
industry -- so how does a science guy like you help the people seeing their industry evaporate away, in the coal industry? else,maybe do some thing something even more fun than mining coal. they will erect wind turbines. policy we need an active ? bill: if i were in charge, yes. there argue for is that are only about 100,000 jobs in the coal industry. not to be dismissive, but that is not that many people, really. displacing 100,000 jobs, pacific car and foundry made railroad cars. there are a lot more people employed in the automobile industry than in the coal industry. four weekse are away from an important climate change summit.
will there be a deal that can make a difference? bill: i hope so. paris conference will raise awareness worldwide. you guys travel way more than i do, i suspect, but everybody else in the world is talking about climate change all the time. the united states is unique. tom: why is that? elko because i think they -- bill: i think because they realize what is going on. they celebrate the idea that scientific uncertainty is the same as -- your adviceuld be to the chief executive officer of -- 1994,as i told him in guys, get in the energy business, not the fossil fuel business. they have industry. they have the ability to change. texas gets 10% of its energy from wind now. texas. this is a solvable problem. how about this?
you read about this thing in 1977. they had this memo telling everybody -- stop that. stop denying it. climate change is a problem. theot get caught up in regulations that say you can bury carbon dioxide. tom: we have to leave in there. bill nye, his book is "unstoppable." jason trennert, it was good to have you here. on this day of remembrance. francine: i am coming back because i have a bowtie now. francine lacqua in london tomorrow. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
they matched last year's sales record in only half the time. republicans take on financial regulation last night's debate, one can it it says if he wins that will never be another bailout. ♪ stephanie: from hong kong, to london, to write here in new york city, welcome to "bloomberg ." david: give a big difference china, to london, all around the world. if francine lacqua here to covered with us. an important day, i'm also coming off the victoria's secret show last night so with a bit of a tire day. i was in the audience, obviously in the audience. [laughter] stephanie: