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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  November 13, 2015 1:00am-3:01am EST

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anna: commodity crunch, concern about chinese demand and metals and energy market sliding. commodity market indexes fall. guy: it is gdp day in europe. we'll continued weakness force mario draghi's hand. anna: syngenta has a new suitor. more on what would be china's biggest ever european acquisition in this exclusive. guy: welcome to "countdown."
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it is just now 6:00 you're in london. commodities are in focus. guy: a lot of macro news coming through. the demand story seems to be freaking everyone out. this is the bloomberg commodity index. this is a long-term chart. this is a widely followed chart. that is 9099, that is where we are now. -- 1999, that is where we are now. let me bring that up for you. it really has been a story in which commodities have continued to fall. that is the last month. you can see progress has been in one direction. anna: opec just said that global infantry service is at the highest in a decade. copper, near six-year lows as well. guy: it is not a supply story. this is the fear about demand.
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it is a different story. anna: oil prices are down to their lowest since august. guy: the commodity story ripping through the asian market. julia: not so happy friday here in asia. that commodities slumped playing into equities in the region. 200 closing down 1.5% lower. we has seen big falls coming through from a lot of energy players. search, all of the energy players coming under big selling pressure due to the drop in the price of crude oil. the hang seng index being heavily sold. chinese stocks have dropped.
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the fact that there are these concerns about a potential hard landing coming out on the china economy. the shanghai composite is down by 1.2%. pickup coming through from the indonesian market. it has a -- has been a generally downbeat day. you can see oil and gas leading the declines. there was some bright news for we have asian index, heard there will be some inclusions of from some of the china's adrs with the likes of and the search engine, baidu. this is good news for the president's efforts to boost technology in china. let's look at the major losers
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in the oil sector. petro china is down more than 4%. there has been a few bright spots. players, lg, tech --sung, and a more pacific amorepacific is doing well. good buys. few guy: not everything is about friday the 13th. there is good news from hong kong and austria. anna: we heard from the fed and ecb through out the day yesterday. several said officials reiterated the time for policy normalization is approaching. >> a simple and prudent approach to current policy is to move the
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policy settings closer to normal levels now that the goals have been obtained. there is no reason to continue to experiment with extreme policy settings. quantitative easing has had little or no effect. part from a potential signaling that it provided, regarding the outlook for future economic growth, or future policy-setting. >> there is also evidence that suggests inflation expectations are under downward pressure. measures show the long-term citations are at the low end. >> downside risk stemming from global growth and trade are clearly visible. moreover, inflation dynamics have somewhat weekend -- we akened, mainly due to lower oil prices and the effects of the strong european exchange rate seen earlier this year.
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guy: those comments come as we await european gdp figures. we are less than 30 minutes away from the french number. we await the german number in under when our. hans nichols has a preview. we had mario draghi yesterday, what about today? cannot gets: if you excited about gdp, you are in the wrong business. after the french can we get the german. then we get italy, and then at 11:00 local, we get the entire euro zone. the estimate is 0.4%. that is exactly what we got last time. take a look at some charts. usually you get pmi numbers, they are a pretty good indicator. this is for the entire eurozone, tracked against what is happening in real time. you see it is giving an indication you could have some decent numbers. the last fewhot
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times, it does indicate a surprise to the downside. let's take a look with the bloomberg real-time economic data tracker. this gives you data for germany. for themcking data against the gdp. that gets you 0.5%. the estimate is for 0.4% in germany. that is exactly what it was last month. let's take a look at german data, quarter on quarter. you see in the last five quarters, there is not a whole lot of growth. yes, you are in positive territory, but nothing to write home about. we are at lower levels than 2% annual rate. the expectation for germany is 40 point -- 0.3% for this quarter. the third quarter. i am going to be focused on whether or not we see a slowdown.
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you remember all of the political uncertainty with greece, that was in the tail end of the second quarter. we did not see it recited in a data than. for the most -- reflected in the data then. we have to look at france. they came in flat in the last quarter. readingto see that zero was a fundamental slowdown. all of the data is hitting. we have cpi data. i believe we have maltese and finnish data. anna: that is too much for a friday morning. thank you very much, hans nichols. guy: you are in the wrong business if you are not excited. anna: let's continue become a station about the global growth story, specifically europe. ima -- yuma daily.
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>> i think the markets will automatically jot a link. we have seen in the data leading up to this, missed expectations. i think any suggestion that this is a result of infiltrated weakness coming from ian will spur expectations that mario draghi will act. people think he will do something in the december meeting. competehe trying to against the emerging markets lowdown -- slowdown? guest: i think that is an important target. that impact the cpi. -- impacts the cpi.
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guy: do think has a number in mind -- he has a number in mind? guest: weaker than here. i think up towards 113 they get worried. argue the dynamics have not been as good. growth, it money think that is a key factor the ecb is watching. to have such a massive asset purchase program going on, you should see more money going through the system. he is targeting a more aggressive -- anna: why is that? guest: the banking system is not transmitting that money. i think there is a lack of confidence. is a lot of regulation. -- it is a lot of regulation.
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we have not seen much traction with mario draghi's system. has a lot of thanks carrying assets. a lot of financial regulations are on them. anna: where are we on the inflation story in the eurozone? yesterday, mario draghi was talking my core inflation being ned.what weekend -- weake analysts said it does not seem that way. that is a waying of justifying what he wants to do in december? guest: if you look at the last conference with mario draghi, you look at the numbers and you wonder why he is being so pessimistic. what is clear is, he will be aggressive and offsetting any future weakness.
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guy: what is that look like -- does that look like? where does he deliver that outperformance? guest: we are pulling for another 10 point. claiming he ises looking at buying municipal debt assets. it is a small market. over the last year it has been negative. it shows there is a scarcity of assets to buy. a lot of them have lower credit ratings than government bonds. you have to think that he is prepared. guy:'s if he goes above and beyond where he think he will be now -- guy: if he goes above and beyond where he think -- we think he will be now -- we have the fed raising rates, the ecb doing
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more, where is the dollar? 103.: we are calling for we really believe in this monetary policy divergence. if you look at the fundamental differences of the euro. really just underlying the fundamental of the currency should go up lower -- should go lower. anna: we have not seen some thing like that since 1994. guy: heavy days. anna: we don't need to go back to the music references. guy: what do we have for the rest of the day. we have more european gdp figures. germany at 7:00 a.m.. italy at 9:00 a.m..
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anna: we have the french numbers this afternoon. we also have u.s. data. on, we will find out what martin sorrell thinks about all of this. we will talk to him about india. with the cc in the world right now -- what does he see in the world right now? talks, weext, trade delve into the deals being made between india and britain. stay with countdown. ♪
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anna: welcome back, you are watching "countdown." hear the stories you need to know. guy: stories about a china slowdown have dragged the numbers down to the lowest level.
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u.s. crude is lingering below $40 a barrel. copper futures are trading near a six-year low. say kimoomberg sources china is set to buy syngenta. is valued the company at $42 billion. is successful, it would be the largest acquisition of a european company. the two sides are still talking. an agreement could be reached in the next few weeks. has announced a recall of nearly 9000 cars in china. they need to check for a potential fuel leak. anna: david cameron and india's prime minister both say they will use british expertise and investments to help modernize the world's largest democracy.
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collects -- collects -- is an environment that is welcoming. what do we have so far? reporter: we have had 9 billion pounds, $13 billion of deals announced in a variety of industries. the agreements include a five-year partnership to develop indian cities. allowis also a deal to india real race -- railway bonds to be treated -- traded in london. one of the biggest investors was from vodafone, investing 1.3 billion pounds.
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the relationship between india and the u.k. goes far back. you heard mr. modi say it, india invest more in the u.k. than the rest of the eu combined. is in fact the u.k.'s third-biggest foreign investor after the u.s. and france. the u.k. is the biggest investor in india among the g-20. you cannot help but compare what has happened with the chinese -- pingsit by gg paying recently. it really doesn't serve to highlight china's economic clout in relation to india. yes, trade between india and the u.k. is still strong. we're talking 20 billion pounds of bilateral trade lester. -- trade last year. it has been flat between the u.k. in india. anna: what is next for the prime minister? apart from a stadium gig?
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reporter: although this visit has been left economic -- economically less significant. mr. modi will tour. he has spoken in front of the parliament. he will be having lunch with the queen. as you mentioned, there is the event of the stadium. tens of thousands of indians living in the u.k. and abroad will be guttering for an event later today. guy: thank you very much. more on that later on. anna: the european union president is convincing every eu government to agree to the u.k.'s renegotiation demands may not be possible. collects the requests -- >> the requests are tough. this is why if the letter was so interesting.
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that iti have to say will be difficult. guy: talking about the letter he received from david cameron. what happens next? the markets are trying to figure that out. this is the question we are putting to everyone, is it possible to price this? we don't even know when the debate over the referendum will be. guest: there has been speculation on when that day will be. historically in sterling, you don't really get the market pricing and tell a month or two months before hand. you might get some positioning in the option space, but at this stage, if we don't have a confirmed date coming will not see it reflected print anna: some people say the pound weakens against the euro around brexit. others say the divergent paths
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of monetary policy will actually override all of that. guests: i think the latter is true print it is more about bank a version policy. -- diversion policy. you have the bank of england, they are completely turning around the rhetoric, but they are already running two central banks. they say they are tightening. i think it is a compelling narrative, the euro sterling is lower. guy: wind is the first rate hike for the u.k. come through -- when does the first rate hike for the u.k. come through? guest: on the back of the turnaround. you had such a massive turnaround in communication, one
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of those drivers is what is happening in the eurozone. obviously it is a prospect to have a weaker euro. rateu look at the exchange , value of sterling, the euro is a massive component. sterling backed by a weaker euro, it is a large room. anna: -- large move. anna: you are leading to the bank of england's hand being stayed. guest: you have to think we are in a global environment. everyone is being influenced by what is happening outside of their borders. i certainly think that imported deflation is a massive concern for the u.k.. we are like the u.s. which is isolated. they obviously upgraded their models of how much of an impact these things would have on cpi. it has to have a massive impact
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on even giving went. -- on the bank of england. guy: does the bank of england have a clue? the imported factors are so huge, they seem to dominate everything else? you are putting your finger in the air and saying, q3 could be, maybe q1? in all seriousness, no one seems to have an idea of when the rate will go up. guest: i will defend the bank. ae exchange rate has been really important mechanism. graph ofou pull up a the exchange rate index, and you compare it with cpi, it is a completely inverse relationship. weakness ishe euro
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a massive factor in why the inflation is so much lower in the u.k.. they are caught in the headwinds of what is happening in the eurozone. guy: currency in commodity markets? guest: i think the euro sterling exchange rate will be a factor. even looking at the bank of england's models, the euro is the massive component. talked a lots about how december would be on the cards. briefly, how many rate hikes to be see afterwards? a lot of the talk seem to be about managing expectations. guest: we have an interesting trajectory. see a piece of the economic cycle. we see this as the first time the fed is set to raise rates.
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we see a hike in december, followed by march, and then rate cuts. anna: just two. up next, french gdp. ♪ see you in a moment. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,
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it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. guy: it is 6:30 in london. here are the stories you need to know. the bloomberg commodity index is at the lowest level since 1999. chinese stocks have fallen. copper futures are trading at a six-year low. withtoshiba has tumbled shares trading near the lowest level in three years. that is after the company talked about losses of the power operation.
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they are struggling to recover from the biggest japanese accounting scandal. promoted aan sachs record proportion of women. bloomberg sources say women accounted for 25% of the year,ives named this after 20% in the previous round. guy: gdp out of france, .3, matching estimates. let's find out what is going on. reporter: 0.2% does not sound much, but it is better than the flat growth, 0% growth we had in france in the second quarter. it was held by investments as you mentioned. had anial production increase in september. industrial inin august, which was the best sense
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2013 -- since 2013. overall, industrial production made a contribution to this number. according to bloomberg intelligence come of this number provides good enough reason to be optimistic for france for the month to come. minister expects the total gdp growth this year to be between 1.1% and 1.2%. of course this will also depend on demand from europe and the global economy. they say it will depend a lot on u.s., and a lot on the federal interest rates and what we might see a the end of the year. of course the worry, the concern here is that this growth is not enough yet to really generate jobs. as you know the unemployment rate in france remains high. 3.50 5 million people are
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jobless and france. that a 600,000 more people than when the president was elected. anna: how will this play out domestically? caroline: of course the unemployment is extremely important. to president says he will not seek reelection if he does not managed to reverse the curve of unemployment. this will not happen before the end of 2016. as you know, the election in france will be in the middle of 2017. time is running out. the government is pushing through reform. the economy minister is presenting new code to anchorage startups and helping to remove obstacles in the labor market. they are trying to create the next french uber. anna: thank you.
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guy: john kerry says america and their allies remain opposed to any role in syria's future. will propose a political transition in a country which could last as long as 18 months. nothing any plan indicates that a son -- assad be barred from staying in power. anna: we are joined with andrew today. what is likely to be on the table this weekend in vienna? andrew: it will be deeply confusing. there are definitions which are unclear. who is a terrorist? how far can russia actually move syrian politics? how far they intend to do so? russian foreign policy is made is just who is not
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really able to deal with domestic problems. it has an element of arbitrariness and self-contradiction. guy: ultimately we have to resolve that. one would hope. andrew: what? guy: the contradiction. we have to look at what a solution is. is it possible to solve the contradiction in time for syria to be left in any shape or form that creates a viable long-term solution? how long can this work go on is the question. and her: i suspect a long time. -- andrew: i suspect a long time. what is it that russia actually wants. it appears to be that putin once to stay.sday --
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that is a bit out of the interest of the rest of the syrian. -- syrians. there are limits to the amount of troops they can put in their. -- there. in the end they are a player, that is a good thing. they cannot resolve it. anna: is it too early to know whether what happened to the metro jet aircraft is going to have an impact on russia's strategy? andrew: in logic, it should mean isil,hey would go after rather than the opposition groups we tend to favor. that is not happen very much so far. they would have to accept it really was iso--- isil that
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planted the bomb. so far they have not been clear about that. and pinion --lic opinion comes to the conclusion it was a bomb, planted by m&a's -- enemies, they will have to go that isil, he may not wish to be clear at all. trade -- this a trade? syria is a piece of the puzzle that is russian foreign policy. is it possible to trade one for the other, to mix up what happens with syria, with what else happens in the ukraine? and i for the senate bigger context? -- can i put this in a bigger context? dishonorableuld be on our part to agree to such trade. it would also be foolish since
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it cannot be brought to fruition. the situation in syria is itself so complicated, it is beyond our control and russian control. we can make things better or worse. i'm not sure we can do more than that. anna: no doubt, this'll be the topic indiana. -- in vienna. thank you so much. sources say there could be the largest acquisition of a chinese company of a european target. reporter: the offer valuing syngenta at about $42 billion. it is an offer of 449 francs a share. this is according to people with knowledge on the matter. they say syngenta has rejected the offer fighting regulatory risk. we heard an agreement could be reached in the next few weeks,
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but syngenta, of course the world's biggest pesticide producer is also in talks with other suitors. optionsploring their after rejecting that $47 billion bid from monsanto. that was a rejection that cost the to -- the syngenta ceo his job. repository received jumped in after hours trading in new york. i am looking at the chart of syngenta shares over the past , despiteou can see where we first got the bid from monsanto, and that they drop when monsanto stepped away after it had been rejected more than once. the shares are above the level they were before syngenta first got the bid for monsanto. the market value of syngenta is about $32 billion.
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that means china's bid is at a 30% premium. anna: thank you. one of our colleagues is talking about the international aspect. , looking at that business, suggesting maybe they would be interested. it seems to be a long time in the making. let's move on to south africa, they have a power problem. so far the country has experienced 100 days of managed blackouts. the new ceo of the country's largest power company spoke to bloomberg about his strategy to keep the lights on, quite literally. that includes boosting south africa's nuclear capacity. moment from anhe operating cost point of view we -- i thinkfect from
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if we did not have nuclear terrace --our ariffs would be higher. i think it is quite urgent we look into nuclear. speaking more about this is our next guest. is there much faith in this business? guest: good morning. there has been some doubt as to whether they can lead a project of this magnitude. we have had almost 100 days of managed blackouts just this year. the company is also grappling with government issues. we had the ceo and top executives being suspended earlier this year. ceo was just before the new
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joined the company. he is coming out quite intensely, to reassure investors that the company can redeem itself. maybe that redemption story lies in the nuclear program the country is currently trying to explore. 28t will try to bring about 8 plants. 6- france,t runner being as the biggest exporter. china and russia are also coming on. russia as a front runner. guy: talk to me about the perception that this blackout story creates for investors. if you keep lights on, what else can you not do? guest: exactly. i think the important thing is it has really curtailed economic growth.
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the finance minister coming out just a few weeks ago saying that the forecast for economic growth for this year is down to 1.5%. that was from an earlier forecast of about 2%. that is definitely going to be a concern for investors. the african development bank has said that for every african country from south africa right up to the north, the biggest hindrance or impediment to growth is energy. that will definitely be a game changer, especially if south africa gets into the nuclear base up for diving -- of providing energy for the country. anna: thank you. guy: up next, france and the spar out.ut -- details, next. ♪
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anna: welcome back, 6:46 in london. here on the stories you need to know.
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guy: fears about a china slowdown have dragged the commodity index to its lowest level since 1999. u.s. crude is lingering below $40 a barrel. copper futures are trading near six-year lows. sources say kim china is in talks to buy syngenta. if successful, it would be the largest acquisition by a chinese company of a european target. 's engine rejected, citing regulatory risk. besides are still talking -- but, besides are still talking. nine people were killed in a disaster, 19 are still missing. most expensive
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homes have slumped in value. valued at 5 million pounds are more cleared 11.5% in the third quarter. places in the best central district rose. guy: we are a few weeks away from the 2015 paris time at conference. tensions are running high. grance and the u.s. are sparrin over whether any legal agreement would be binding. may said yesterday there would not be an agreement if it is not legally binding. let's go to the european venture partner at sos ventures and forest.of wii >> i am committed to not fly until we get 100 million trees.
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guy: everyone is arguing and fighting about what will happen in harris -- paris. it is not legally binding, can we care enough -- tear it up? bill: i kind of say it is futile. having set to the process internally, there is a lot of goodwill. there is a lot of recognition now that there is a problem and needs to be solved. will not be binding, who will adhere? anna: that is not some positive. -- sound positive. bill: one of the nice things about the yuan process is all of us get to go and talk. we get to promote things like our treeplanting manifesto. those things are great. the actual progress is grindingly slow. the process relies on consensus. it is hard to get every member
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state to agree at the same time to any particular policy. anna: where do we benchmark expectations? what would be success? bill: success would be there is a state change. there is suddenly some realization that this is everyone's problem. there for everyone has to do something. so far i have not seen that. i have not seen an inkling. everyone has to agree. everyone was trying to say what they were going to do before this. we were trying to avoid what happened in copenhagen. sense that we have a structure in place that would allow us to progress? bill: there are multiple initiatives that are putting together different structures.
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you have different coalitions leading different sets of interests together. there are multiple. there will be a little bit of progress here and there. i think it is tremendously useful and -- when countries make voluntary targets and try to hit them. i think the u.k. has done well there. china is making some good moves. you have other people coming income or other countries coming in with their own agendas, that is disruptive. and a girl is the investment community -- -- anna: is the investment community talking about the mood in the future? how is the money looking? bill: if you look at carbon , all of or energy use those areas will have huge investment impact, if there is a legally binding agreement.
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if there is not, it'll be much the same. right now energy prices are slumped. that means that all of these new technologies that we are counting on, are not being funded. react --e to companies how should companies react? this confusion that comes out of the government driven initiatives. bill: i think most companies look at their own internal use of carbon now. that awareness has happened. most companies realized a global climate catastrophe is bad for business in the future. sustainability is useful. we have always looked at planting trees is a commercially profitable thing. there is a value in a tree. we do this thing called buy tree tw.a
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the solutions will become a how to we make profit while doing something great for the environment. ignore the noise, and actually do something good, but make money. and a girl -- anna: stay with us. focused ipadess pro goes on sale today in more than 40 countries. one new feature is the apple pencil. steve jobs famously mocked the idea of it in 2007. steve jobs: a stylus, right? know -- no. wants aa stylus -- stylus? inmate -- ining
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nate. one thing, it is hard to predict the future. one should change with the times, is that what apple is doing? nate: it is a little bit like that. this ipad pro is nearly 13 inches. anna: this is the thing. nate: is very large. one advantage, apple is aiming ,his at a design lead customer not a customer who is buying this model, it is the kind of person he was only using this for their only template. you can see how much larger this product is. one of the benefits is the ability to have these apps running side-by-side. you can see i have this story on about house prices in london. i have the map appear come i can
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use these simultaneously side-by-side. i also have myself in the picture. i am making sure even though i am reading the roads -- website come i'm not missing anything. -- website, i am not missing anything. the other thing is with the stylus, apple is pushing this to be a design lead products. . this pencil has levels of sensitivity. the harder you press, the thicker and thinner the lives -- lines will be. it is difficult to demonstrate on television. anna: is that you? nate: this is modern art. guy: my children do modern art. you invest in technology companies, when you start a see
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some like this, what kind of opportunity does it throughout? apple.we love that stylus is packed with technology. it is something different than the stylus. steve jobs was talking about a dead piece of plastic. this is quite clever. my actual son is a graphics designer. he wants one of these. he wants that ability to change the thickness. that opportunity to me is a drop in the ocean. we see so many different internet of things, things. this is not enough to be connected. everything will get connected. project where you see an anonymous number of things online because the cost is a thousand times cheaper. anna: thank you so much for joining us.
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guy: we will be talking about what is happening with india. we will talking about the macro story. gdp data drops in a few minutes. ♪
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anna: commodity crunch. concern about chinese demand sends energy markets sliding. the commodity index falls to a 1989 low. guy: gdp day in europe. will continued economic weakness force mario draghi out next month? anna: after walking away from -- more, a new suitor on what would be china's biggest ever european acquisition in this bloomberg exclusive. guy: welcome to "countdown. " anna: 7:00 here in london, 8:00
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in germany. i mentioned germany because we are getting numbers through. guy: .3 -- i have heard that number before somewhere. it is exactly the same as the french number. quarter --third let's find out what the details are and what you need to know. hans nichols is in berlin. hans: guys, good morning. .3%, bang in line with estimates on german gdp. in some ways, it is not a great number, down from last quarter, but it shows that the german economy weathered both china and greece, and to some extent a bit scandal.ll volkswagen volkswagn these are not overwhelming numbers but they are telling a story of a modest recovery. the france number came in at 0.3. when you dig into the france number you see what the story is -- namely, consumer spending. consumer spending in france was
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up .3%. in terms of inventory restocking they were up .7%. -0.5%,arter they were at but in france they were hurt on exports at 0.7% on the negative side. france will see that low oil price, inducing consumers to spend a little bit more. in germany, we will be digging into the numbers that are in line with estimates. later on today we will get two, three hours time -- the entire euro zone numbers. pmi'sou take a look at have been doing, we are on a trajectory for modest growth, below 2% but not anywhere in the negative territory. so far my take on this is that the france number shows you that france is dipping into recession. germany is plowing through but not overwhelmingly good. anna: we know you are excited enough and you haven't even got to the eurozone numbers. it will no doubt build.
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i suppose the question is what this does to the whole debate about the ecb and how much stimulus they put into the european economy. is there a definite link between weakness here and what mario draghi finds -- his reason for more qe? hans:'s numbers don't harm the -- these numbers don't harm the qe case. they are really looking more at the cpi numbers. we got a few today but it is clear from what he said yesterday that they are looking at inflation expectations. they see downside risks to inflation, and that is a strong indicator that they will expand the size and scope, and certainly the duration, of quantitive easing. some ways, way -- in gdp seems like it is one of the least important indicators trying to divine what central bankers will do. they are just looking at inflation numbers, and part of
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that is the unemployment picture. anna: hans, thank you very much. hans nichols, excited about gdp. guy: i think the market yesterday was excited about draghi, and that is what moved the dial. it is hard to see in terms of the foreign exchange market. they are pretty much in line with where the market saw the story yesterday. let's show you what's happening to futures in terms of european equity markets. yesterday, the commodity crunch story was very much germane yesterday, and we continue to see the bloomberg index sliding with a meaningful impact on european trade, particularly in london. it looks like we will continue on that as well. referencing,was we heard yesterday on central-bank policy from the fed and the ecb. a mario draghi struck dovish tone, several fed
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officials reiterated that the time for policy normalization is approaching. >> we have to move the policy settings closer to normal levels now that the goals have been attained. there is no reason to continue to experiment with extreme policies. >> they have had little or no fact. -- no effect. apart from the potential signaling that it provided regarding the omc's outlook for potential economic growth or future policy-setting. >> there is some evidence to suggest that in patient expectations are under downward pressure. surveyicular, some measures of long-term expectations are at the low end of the range we have seen. >> i think it is quite possible that the conditions the community has established to normalize monetary policy could soon be satisfied. >> downside risks stemming from global growth and trade are clearly visible. dynamics inflation
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kened,omeone wea mainly due to lower oil prices in the delayed effect of is stronger euro exchange rate seen earlier this year. mario draghi at the end, addressing the european parliament. joining us now is the ceo and founder of all of the capital management. good morning. of the policyke divergence we are going to see between the fed and the ecb, two major global blocks moving in different directions on monetary policy? >> i think from a market perspective, it creates diversion opportunities, in the sense that the tightening of rates or potential tightening of the rates in the u.s. -- we are likely to see stronger dollars, and on the other hand with the divergence you mentioned in ecb easing its
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stance, continuing weakness in the euro. and on top of that, you have the emerging markets aspect of it as well. i think in terms of fixed income in the u.s., it is likely to ease off, and certainly in the short and medium end of the curve. equities, and certainly in our book, we are a little bullish in the equity market. we continue as well to be fairly bullish in europe, and that is simply on the back of easing. we like to follow the footsteps of what happened. anna: so if we see a rate hike in the u.s., is that positive, then, for you? because markets depending on their psychology, depending on how they feel, seem to take that kind of message differently? mr. karim: yes. it's positive in the sense that
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-- let's face it, we are in a slow growth environment, and that is likely to continue for another few years in my mind. thein that environment with easing policies that are being adopted worldwide, i think that the asked price inflation on the equity side, that has -set the tone, and now europe continues. japan is the same story. that's going to continue to keep equity markets buoyant. on the other hand, because it is in the slow growth environment, it is quite possible you will have setbacks and corrections. there will be nervousness, but i don't think we are likely to see any extended or sharp selloffs. guy: why not? you look at the commodities space right now -- it is signaling a demand concern. part of that is china.
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much of that is china. but nevertheless, we are not in a particularly rosy place of growth right now. the last earnings season in the u.s. didn't highlight the fact that these companies are making huge profits. wire equities going to carry on going up? the world is look like great right now. mr. karim: there is still growth there, though. the earnings are going to continue to go up. there is nowhere else to put your money. guy: is that it? mr. karim: that's certainly one of the more relative point. where you going to take the money out? equities are the only income producing assets, and represents, in a way, the economy itself. innovation -- continues, technology continues. anywhere else you can put it. with commodities, they are down
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20% this year, continuing a sad story. the chances of commodity recovery in a slow growth environment is very slim. certainly in our books, we are modestly short some, and some progressively short. anna: why is that? do you think the cause the weakness in the chinese growth story isn't going away and commodities will find it hard to bounce back, or even put a floor -- mr. karim: the supply-side, which is obviously very slow, and the demand side is weak. and there is a divergence we are talking about in terms of interest rate, keeping the dollar strong. the dollar is definitely going to affect -- most of the commodities are dollar-based. that will have a negative impact. in china, that is another major
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impact. we are looking at three things that are keeping influencing factors on the markets today. one is the fed's stance and the policy in terms of rate hikes. the second is the commodities decline, which is also lacking equities. is --en the third thing guy: what are you aggressively sure? mr. karim: in oil -- again, within the oil sector, like natural gas, we are shorter than crude. , on a long-term basis, have been short. but on the other hand, thousands of markets are rallying, and th ey were re-sold. at the moment we are looking to build back those shorts and oil.
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anna: thank you. arif karim. he stays with us. guy: more european gdp figures. elliott 9:00 u.k. time. eurozone at 10:00. anna: u.s. data retail sales for october and consumer sentiment for the month of november. guy: we will be joined by the ceo of wpp. he will be joining us at 7:30 a.m. london time. anna:, selling the seeds for a deal. will is in talks for -- we have those details and will be keeping an eye on the shares. view if you are waking up in this city. ♪
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anna: welcome back.
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quarter past 7:00 in london. here are the stories you need to do. bloomberg commodities index is at its lowest level since 1999. chinese stocks are way down by oil companies. $40 a barrel for oil, copper trading near six-year low. anna: brazilian authorities ask for compensation from bhp after deadly mudslides when and dam burst at their joint venture. at least nine people were killed in the venture. guy: there are more woes for volkswage volkswagen. porsche has announced the recall of nearly 9000 cars in china, checking for a potential fuel leak. nikkei questions
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how the company put losses on its nuclear power operations over the last two fiscal years. they are still struggling to from the biggest japanese accounting scandal since olympus. guy: bloomberg sources say china is in talks to buy a pesticide maker in what could be the largest acquisition by a chinese company of a european target. let's get the details. nejra: what we are talking about here is an offer of about 449 francs per share, which values that at about $42 billion. that is that a 30% premium on its current market value. we heard about these talks from people with knowledge of the matter, and they say that syngenta has rejected that offer, citing regulatory risk. that we also hear that the sides are talking in that we could see an arrangement reached. of course, these talks come after syngenta rejected that $47 billion bid from monsanto
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earlier this year. we also hear that syngenta is talking to other potential suitors, exploring other options. in terms of how the shares may react to this news, we have seen the american depository for's agenda jumping as much as 16% in after-hours trading. we have also had a premarket call that syngenta could raise 9.6% off the back of this. you can see its shares, that spike of 19% with the first monsanto bid, and then a drop of almost the same amount. anna: continuing the m&a theme, mylan has a million-dollar bid. both stocks are listed in the u.s. and in tel aviv. elliott gotkine joins us. good morning. it is all about the number of shares in this process.
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elliott: that's right. in order for having a chance it needs at least half of perrigo shares to attend by the deadline. according to the wall street journal, many institutional shareholders would have to attend by last night in order to be counted in the final results, and mylan hasn't got the requisite number for top why we had they go -- i h perrigo ceo and a week later we had the mylan chairman trying to woo israeli investors, and the ceo is saying that the premium is not that great. it is about 11%. there are no synergies. perrigo mainly makes over-the-counter medicines for
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brands according to the stores they sell them to. on top of that he also instituted a shared buyback program and the cost-cutting program, although they seem to have persuaded shareholders to follow the advice of their ceo and rejects this bed and ignore the words of the mylan chairman who says it is baked into the cake and that these two companies are better than they would be going it alone. guy: what's next? what happens if this doesn't work? elliott: well, this is a $27 billion question, isn't it? the chairman of mylan was saying that two things will happen. in a bid process like this, it usually goes long. they would have gone short against mylan, for what he says will happen -- but what he says is the stocks will tank and -- they said it will rise
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exponentially as positions close-out. more broadly speaking, productivity and version, a favorable tax regime, perrigo enjoys a favorable tax regime and there is every chance that either or both of these companies could become prey for a larger fund looking to take advantage of their domicile s tate and pay lower taxes get more money for their shareholders. anna: thank you. we will see if that story continues. thanks very much. guy: aref karim is still with us. you were telling us that the stocks are the only place to park your money. drilling down a little bit further, you talks about innovation and tech stocks. where do i find the place to hide out? mr. karim: well, it's difficult
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to comment on the pectoral basis, because we trade indices on a global basis. all we know is that we have seen, visibly, that there is innovation -- guy: do you run away from the ftse because it is commodity heavy, go toward the nasdaq? you are probably making some decisions based on the index you are picking. mr. karim: the thing is that on a relative acis, submarkets -- a relative basis, some markets are more attractive for us. again, when we are tracking these prices, they appear to be stronger. anna: because it is cheap. mr. karim: exactly. they have looked much more attractive for us on momentum. guy: you are not making a macro call. mr. karim: a macro call is on the basis of this divergence. europe is going to continue to be supported by the ecb.
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consequently, equity markets generally in europe are going to be more attractive. on the other hand, selectively, in portugal and greece -- you avoid those stocks. there is no futures markets on those. we are trading cac, ftse, and dax. on a relative basis, france looks more attractive. cheaper -- ? mr. karim: we were, earlier, when we had that selloff in august. roundabout september we found value their. -- there. introduce going back into the long side. anna: we talked about diverging
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central-bank policy -- you worried about the repercussions in the market when we see the head move, -- the fed move. but it will be taken fine by investors? mr. karim: i think it will be the latter. it is largely discounted than the market. the fed has been dithering for quite some time, and even now we don't know because of the selloff we have just been, whether the fed decides to hold off. i think it is unlikely, but it is possible. they have certainly left that option open. anna: we heard one of them saying this morning, given that move, could this be the hand of the fed? mr. karim: i think it is possible. hard in terms of trying to support him lead the way for the global economy. guy: after such clear signaling that we will get a rate hike in
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december, when the volatility be even greater if they didn't do anything? i'm not so sure the volatility will increase if they didn't. the market is in position for a hike. mr. karim: let's put it this way -- it is fairly well-balanced in my mind. if it went either way it would not be such a big deal. anna: thank you very much. aref karim. they looks like we are going to be opening a little after when it comes to european markets. fair value numbers showing not a big drop, down by .5%. continuing a trend we had of yesterday, commodities ripping through london and glencore. anna: the commodities story was certainly one factor to watch. it is still having an impact on today's trade. keep an eye on syngenta.
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we knew speculation about whether -- we have another story of a bid. and after the break we will be talking to wpp's ceo. plenty to discuss with him. narendra modi is in the u.k. right now, and he is very keen on modi and his story and what he could do or india. they are also working with modi campaign, helping to launch them onto the electoral stage. uy: we will get his take on the global economy. we'll take a break. ♪
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guy: 7:30 here in london. here are the stories you need to know. anna: there's about the china's slowdown have dragged bloomberg commodities index to its lowest level since 1999. chinese stocks have also fallen the most in six weeks, weighed down by oil companies. u.s. crude is below $42 per barrel. guy: bloomberg says that china is trying to buy syngenta, valuing the company around $42 billion. if successful it will be the largest acquisition by a chinese company of a european target. 's agenda has resen --
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syngenta has rejected it, citing regulatory concerns that a deal could be reached. anna: goldman sachs has promoted 425 people to managing director, the second-highest rank at the wall street firm. sources say women accounted for 25% of the names this year, up from 20%. -- we arey the 13th expecting the european equity markets to go north. you would probably be the film -- looks like we will get a softer open. we found a little bit, with the fair value calculation telling us we are probably down at the get-go by around .5%. anna: david cameron and india's prime minister say they want to help modernize the world's largest democracy. mr. modi, on his first official trip to the u.k., pointed to the close ties between the two nations. >> indians invest more in
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britain than in the rest of europe combined. because -- it is environments an that is welcoming and familiar. guy: let's check the scorecard to see what deals have been done. nejra as the details. nejra: we are talking about 9 billion pounds, $13 billion of deals across a variety of sectors. some of the highlights -- a five-year partnership to develop three english cities, a memorandum of understanding, and that deal to allow rupee denominated indian railway bonds to be traded in london. vodafone was investing is are there 1.3 billion pounds in india. all of this was supposed to create or safeguard almost 2000 u.k. jobs.
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of course, both david cameron and narendra modi really emphasized the close ties between india and the u.k., which go back a long way. we are talking about the u.k. being the vaguest investor -- the biggest investor in india, and india being be uk's third-biggest foreign investor after the u.s. and france. u.k. invests more in the than in the rest of the eu combined. and also in terms of trade, 20 billion pounds of bilateral trade last year. but one can't help but compare the volume of these deals with the deals that were signed with the chinese when xi jingping visited the u.k. billion, more45 than three times what was signed with india. traderse, china and u.k. has more than tripled over the past decade, whereas the trade with india and the u.k. has
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pretty much stagnated in comparison. what this really shows is that china's economic clout fails in comparison, despite what was touted as a successful first visit. anna: a busy day ahead of him no doubt. thank you very much. let's carry on this conversation with mr. sorrell. good morning to you. guy: i hear he is doing yoga with david cameron. [laughter] anna: this is some credit to brand modi. mr. sorrell: absolutely. he takes the credit. the end his crew, they are extremely good. it is everywhere around the world. he took new york by storm. having said that, he has the vision. he has all the chops in terms of
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personality and vision and strategy -- the question is a limitation. it's a bit like running a company. you have a strong vision but it isn't limitation. he has done an extremely good job. popularity ratings have been very strong. take -- ailure to whether that causes further ruptures or whether that brings own,her -- the -- on its the indian oligarchs tell me add on its own about 2% gdp growth. that is stuck in the upper house. it raises the question if it will force a compromise. guy: it is kind of a microcosm of the wider story. he was able to get all this stuff done -- can he scale --
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mr. sorrell: if you are good at running a small company can you run a bigger company? think you can do, but it is -- i think he can do, but it probably needs a little more on talk receiver get it moving. business there is extremely strong. we have been there in one way or another for 70, 80 years. it is our eighth largest market. we have 15,000 people there. we have $600 million of revenue this year. 2.5 billion dollars, $3 billion and 50% of the market. it is our strongest worldwide market. -- in-- it's interesting china, we have 15 shares, $1.5 billion in revenue. and $600 have 50 billion. my theory is that it is
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extremely strong and attractive, and if you look at the forecast for population and gdp growth, india will be the third-largest world economy and it will have the largest economy by population. it clearly is full of promise. is ad to believe that it 200 year blip in history. early 19th century, the brits were 40% of worldwide gdp. on india.sih india is the last brick standing. russia is in trouble, brazil is not good. bull as ima raging am on india as china. but having said that there will be bumps. that india is growing at 10%. another strong october. october was extremely strong,
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but it should have been because october last year was weak, comparatively. is a little bit counter to what we saw earlier in the year, that india -- i hope the strength will continue. the were of virtue a few years ago but now they have become a vice. you ares always say -- still keen on these markets and the answer is yes. it depends on the success of india. we very much have a vested interest in seeing modi succeed. anna: that is a big statement. under branded and under advertised. mr. sorrell: we do the top 50 branding in india like we do worldwide. 50% of the top 50 brands and india by value our private or soe's.
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there is a lot of promise to come. the penetration is the same absolute size as america, 250 million people, but it is only 1/5 of the population. the digital natives and india are extremely good, extremely strong. we are seeing a growth and development of the digital economy in india that matches what we saw in china. i think -- he believes that india has the same characteristics of china from a digital point of view. you see snap deal, the alibabas or amazons of india. you see the growth and development of companies at a national level and,
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increasingly, at a multinational level, that will match what we see from the rest. guy: should the u.k. focus on its future with european partners or its future trading with india, china? mr. sorrell: you have to do both. is patent and trade -- it 50% of our trade, going with the major investments. if the question is do i favor andit, the answer is now, i'm prepared to say that despite some people not wanting to say anything about this. this is a personal view -- it is not a view i would impose on the people at,00-0 wpp. the problem for us is that our brick trade is strong. we may be the third-largest
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investor, but the fact of the matter is that the patents trade is not strong enough. when we go on these trade missions, it is a little bit pathetic because we haven't developed the trade as he should have, not like the americans, not like the germans, who has been very aggressive in those markets. anna: let's continuous conversation. he stays with us. and let's turn to the question of brexit, because the european union president has spoken on a list of events from britain on eu membership. they say it will be very difficult to convince every eu government to agree to the terms, and there is no guarantee it will be achieved by the end of the year. >> the requests are top. -- are tough. which is why this matter is so interesting for me. that it will say be really difficult to find an agreement. guy: disappointing news for prime minister david cameron,
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who said the letter of demand on s on tuesday. mr. sorrell, on a personal level, it is said he's keen we remain in the eu. matt campbell is our chief business correspondent. matt: there is a bit of back and forth going on, but you want to hear about brexit and the city. guy: i guess that is a good starting point. matt: this is a really interesting day for david cameron -- there were some items this morning about hedge funds now putting money into the campaign for hedge funds for the out campaign. that is becoming a bit of a trend -- there are some money men and women but they do tend to be money men, who want the u.k. out, which seems astonishing given what we have heard from the cbi and institute
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of directors, who are very much in. anna: martin was clear to state his view but some have been asked not to, so maybe they can't because their shareholders may not want them to. who are the people you have been talking to on the hedge fund side that wants to leave? matt: i did a rather big story this week about the outs in the city. some want to be out unless huge concessions are made which will never happen. another hasmsley -- leaveidentified with the campaign -- these are not executives at the deutsche bank's or goldmans -- mr. sorrell: the bureaucracy -- matt: it is a bit of bureaucracy, a bit hazy nostalgia, and slightly vague hope that in the thatcher years
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things were much better, britons were out of the eu and some of that could be reclaimed. whether that is naive or not remains to be seen, but there is some vague orn specific way being in eu has degraded britain. they to talk about singapore, switzerland -- those are much smaller places. guy: we have heard so many stories about the demise of the city. if you don't join the euro, the city will suffer. if we don't do this, the city will suffer. thate memory must dictate none of that ever comes -- matt: i do believe anyone has really analyzed, if we were to come out, what the implications would be. we sat next to senior government last night who said that he didn't think that that process
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would be as difficult as people say. anna: howdy you know what policy would take its place? mr. sorrell: nobody has worked out what the mechanics would be. the mechanics look very daunting to reestablish all these trade agreements, however many there are. there's a number that sticks in my mind but it might be wrong. it would be fraught with problems in terms of renegotiating all those trade agreements unilaterally, with all the countries that we would be disengaged from. it is the dislocation that would because, the massive problem. guy: the u.k. economy lose focus? mr. sorrell: i think so. it comes back to what you said before -- what should we be doing? we should be trying to develop our commercial interest with all the environments, not just the bricks or the eu. want toing both -- we make it as powerful a nation
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commercially as we can. say theyshowed -- they are doing their trade deals outside the eu easier because you have clarity and you don't have to get 20 countries to agree, just britain. wpp.orrell: just take we started 30 years ago and wanted to become a major multinational. you can do it on the basis of the 60 million people in the country. you have to look at the world market, everything going on outside the u.k. we try and attack, penetrate all the markets. we don't segment between the eu and the brits, we want to do it all. coming out, it is a very big disadvantage in our biggest trading market. guy: what do you consider moving your business away from the u.k.? mr. sorrell: it gets into dangerous territory -- [laughter] is, whatll: the fact
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we did is we went to -- a th reat, although he denies it was a threat, but it was a threat, that they would tax unlimited profits. we came back because of the coalition government, guaranteeing for the life of the parliament that they wouldn't do it. we wouldn't play political games in the way you are suggesting. the honest answer is i doubt whether we would change if we stay in or out, but the focus of our business will be, i think, damaged. the fact that we would have a disadvantage, that a couple of our rivals are french-based, us-based -- the googles and facebooks and all that. but it would, i think, destabilize our business at
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least for three or four or five years. we would ultimately regain the focus but it would be a very uncomfortable period. the competitive disadvantage to two of our competitors that are very strong in france. drivenside the eu, can advantage. anna: is it a difficult decision to speak out on this? mr. sorrell: not for me. [laughter] mr. sorrell: no, not for me. but some of the bully boy tactics are unsatisfactory. some political figures have said that business people shouldn't movementt, but the out recently said that everybody should keep their trap shut. i think that is wrong. i am perfectly entitled to express a personal view. we don't invest money. we never have to go to shareholders in order to get approval.
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it puts us in a difficult position -- one of the recent to get people doing it is idiosyncratic individuals with private companies -- and make investments. matt: and you are seeing some of the big banks begin to express the is that they would -- express views that they would -- deutsche bank said they would have to move operations back to frankfurt, and that gets to something interesting, and it comes up when you speak -- you have to make a distinction between principal and practice. in principle, perhaps it is possible it would be better off. but in practice, there is this enormous body of legislation and trade agreements and shaping the political and economic landscape that has to be rebuilt over a period of years or longer. when you ask about that specifically, you get a fair bit of handwaving. what would happen to millions of
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eu citizens who live visa free, and there is no record of who they are or where they live? mr. sorrell: the real problem is migration. the immigration issue has really overwhelmed the discussion. that is the primary issue. that pops up prominently in david cameron's letter. but that, emotionally, is a big issue. and then you have these mavericks, these people who are prepared to go out on a limb and make extreme statements. matt: and mavericks with deep pockets. mr. sorrell: as we get closer to actually,-- i think, from a technical point of view, the longer it is postponed, the better. region, thegrowth
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year,nine months of the has been western europe. so that's been -- it's a matur e market. fourth quarter is the biggest quarter of the year, and the markets will do better than the slow growth markets. but the growth -- france is still pretty tough, germany is very strong, spain has recovered strongly, italy is starting to motor. we are starting to see -- he's expressing uncertainty. it is a fragile, slow growth. it is a tough world. anna: so you want to link those. mr. sorrell: tactically, the longer it goes on, the better it is, because western europe will look better. anna: without the likeesson -- mr. sorrell: if we delay the referendum in scotland -- the staying in vote would have gone through the roof. and where with scotland the if they had voted -- scotland be if
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they had voted for independence? most of the people i know within the energy industry don't or cast oil prices -- the: is there a sense of campaign that wants to keep britain in the eu needs to focus on the positive? mr. sorrell: yeah. it is very difficult -- it is easier for the no's. the ones that don't want to come out, to express the negative view. to express the positive view is much more difficult, just tactically. the longer it goes on, the better it will be. guy: you have mentioned the macro story, oil staying low for longer, europe is recovering. worldrrell: the will grow at 3.5% and we have to get used to it. maybe we became used to unrealistic expectations, for
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percent, 5%, 6% -- we are positioning our business following are the clients. if you are running a business -- you have the zero-based budget, and the activist investors in the middle. some of them are getting punished. the valeant model has come under attack -- abi and sab miller, and there will be more stuff like that wilaat. -- that. that is putting tremendous pressure on the sector -- people expecting further bid activity and consolidation activity. but basically, clients are very short-term and that is what sites. america's average life is two years. great news.
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so it's a tough world, the post-layman world, where worldwide growth has come off the boil. i think it is the new normal. moderate growth, very little inflation, very little pricing power. anna: and the central bank policy? it isrrell: the fed -- interesting that people are getting nervous about december. my own view is that it is so fragile, we would be best off postponing any rate rises. then you have this contradiction with the fed wanting to tighten, mario draghi in the japanese continually -- guy: when do we do it? mr. sorrell: the fact is, life changed. we were talking last night about how long this is going to go on for, this low growth world. which, by the way, is tolerable, but the animal spirits -- you
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talk to central bankers all the time or treasury secretaries or finance ministers, but when you talk to them, you get the opportunity -- none of them can explain why it is that companies are not investing in opec. they are just buying back their stock and when they run out of production opportunity they do m&a. and you lot are to blame. you capitalize the cost energies. anybody who pulls that revenue synergies -- [laughter] anna: thank you very much. martin sorrell, thank you so much. see you on monday. ♪
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jonathan: a very good morning to you. with me,on the move" jonathan ferro. let's get straight to your morning brief. we have concern about chinese demand. the u.s. stock future is a mix as europe goes to the open. making a case for draghi. after walking away from $47
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billion, there is a new suitor for syngenta. that is your morning brief. that is what we will be focused on for the next hour. european equities are set to open. we thought a selloff in the u.s. and a selloff in asia. their worstcks had day in six weeks. they are heading towards their worst weekly decline. the damage, look at if there is any, across the european equity markets. we have that growth number in line with estimates for france. in the previous quarter, the


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