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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  November 17, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EST

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100 is in the green. in the fx market, one headline, the euro dropping toward a seven-month low. let's get straight to your morning market open right here on bloomberg with nejra cehic. horror of those attacks in paris is very fresh in our minds but for markets today it seems it is back to business. in the past we have had terror attacks and we have seen the reaction and markets has been sharp and short-lived. in europeity markets start to recover even two hours into trading. we saw u.s. stocks jump yesterday and asian markets have been recovering. let's look at what is happening with the european open. see if the resilience is back. it looks like it is.
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ftse 100 up more than 1%. 40 up almost 1% here. they say it really is back to business here in european equity markets. if we move along and have a look at the euro dollar it was all about risk aversion yesterday and one of those points was a wicker euro gets the dollar. it is extending losses today at a seven-month low. but this is very much about the dollar trade rather than the euro. if we look at the dollar that actually hit a seven-month high today. turning very much back to monitoring policy convergence. the ecb looking at the prospect of a fed rate rise. and that is also why we're seeing a weaker gold price. a six-day trading at its lowest level in more than five years. backtion turning very much toward the global market cues.
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traders are currently pricing in a probability of a fed rate rise by december at 66%. and we have that u.s. inflation data coming as well. jon: two minutes into the session, blanket green on the screen. the green on the dax in the cac 40 as well. green in the asian session as well. a positive session for asian stocks. zeb eckert with the asian rap. >> asian-pacific stocks rebounded from a six-week low. as we take a look at the heat theseving the markets, sectors advanced today. in the order of about 1%. financials were quite active leaving the markets higher as well as the shanghai composite. among those financial services, stocks of a 1% gain. these are the stocks we tracked in the session as a look at some
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of the key movers here. among them were securities and south korea -- south korea. city securities are a big mover in shanghai and hong kong. we did see airline related stocks rebounding today. investors took a fifth more of an optimistic -- a bit more of an optimistic move. quantum is up 6%. even airways rising and in hong kong pacific staging in advance as well. let's check in on how commodities fared across the region because we did see investors adding a little bit of risk to the equation and that sent shares up on the shanghai composite swinging between gains and losses. if you look what is happening to commodities, copper has been falling 1% today. one concern about china's economic goal -- growth story
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and gold pulling back. investors piled into safe haven assets. gold sing a move down. the japanese yen seeing a bit of a weaker performance. the take away here is that investors are resilient in the face of the harris terratec. us in theakeaway for fx market is a much much stronger dollar. we'll talk with the fx market in just a moment. that is happening in the early part of the session. first up, a dangerous cocktail. the ecb warns that the banks face a credibility risk of a missed inflation goal. then a industrial metals plunge and copper hits a fresh six-year low. wti crude slides toward $40 a barrel. 9:30he data due out it
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expected to show prices falling for the second consecutive month. so, the recovery is fragile. the european central bank's credibility is at stake. that is the view of the executive board member and i spoke to him exclusively in frankfurt. turn the argument the other way. athink what we communicate is view of economic conditions in general. we clearly said the downside risk had increased so you communicate that and then you hear the reaction function which depends on your assessment of the situation so the markets to the reasoning. who? i would turn
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the argument the other way. but the analysts have their own analysis of the situation. alsohe market behavior is reading about the mandate of the central bank and the assessment of the situation. some people say financial dominance or central banking dominance. i think we clearly communicated are assessments and art reaction function. the assessment we also said we have to be done in december, a full assessment on the basis of projections, on the very recent evolution and i would also add that any assessment, you look at the flow of data but you also have to look at, take a view at how is this whole adjustment to this balance sheet recession how is it happening. we are in this adjustment and i
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think there you have to absolutely make sure that your inflation expectations remain anchored. because that couple kits it dramatically if markets would revise the structure downwards. recessionance sheet we revise the markets, you revise long-term expectations in terms of nominal growth, we have the inflation part downward. it complements -- couple kits the whole ounce sheet adjustment. >> let's continue this conversation with the investment director. great have you with us. do you share a concern, the data is ok. i think they should be concern to the extent that it will be hard to create inflation later on. there are a whole range of reasons why that is the case and
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sometimes some of these things are not in control of the central bankers even though they would like you to believe they can control it. the situation we have is a huge capacity whether it is labor or industry production and we have seen what happens. huge excess capacity prices continuing to fall. but more importantly is the question of longer-term growth prospect and that system in terms of what the banking sector and the corporate sectors are leveraged to such an extent that when you get to that kind of extra level it doesn't create any kind of significant growth. you're stuck in a very low growth phase. with extra resources everywhere, but nobody having pricing our. jon: here is the debate right now. limited visibility into 2016. to those downside risks materialize into an outright negative shock. iswe have an ecb decision
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the risk of not doing anything outweighing the risk of doing something when not needed? we hadt of improvement in the eurozone were cyclical because of the earlier devaluation of the euro. we had a foil -- fall in the oil price. so they are cyclical in nature, in other words they will start abating very soon. the only way it can get that was to get the cost of capital down. household. jon: looking at the market this morning. a negative yield of -0.377%. they cannot buy it if they wanted to. i have a euro trading at a seven-month low. the transmission mechanism through the fx channel has not fed through to a higher inflation rate.
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why will doing more solve that problem. there is a long leg. jon: should they wait if you have to wait 18 months. you have to keep the cost of the mortgages down. ultimately what it does is .timulate the banking sector later the growth opportunities can be taken because the banks are willing to lend. that is also greeting growth and you have a positive fit. but i think that is another year away. in the meantime you to keep putting interest on them to stay down. on this program, security over stability. the prime minister says france will breach european deficit rules as it spends on security following the terror attacks. ♪
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jon: welcome back. i am jonathan ferro life from the city of london. at 10645 against the dollar. here are bloomberg's top stories. volkswagen's european market share declines in october. manufacturer
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accounted for 25% of new car registrations in the reason last month compared with 26.1% a year earlier. overall carmaker sales rose 2.7%. buy wireless can indication's in a deal. though get a special dividend when the deal closes. has destroyed the islamic state's command center in northern syria. the french industry says 10 planes were involved overnight. earlier president francois hollande imposed on the u.s. and russia to form a new alliance to destroy the islamic state. the security pact is more important than the stability pact, the words of francois hollande signaling he is prepared to sacrifice deficit reduction in the name of national security. those words are reinforced by prime minister memo vallis who said they will increase.
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i want to bring in the bloomberg team to get the latest from brussels. paris, you look at this line coming out of france, you wonder what takes precedence what becomes the most important in the hierarchy of issues. security and the sacrifice of financial stability . >> it is very clear that a number of countries will go down that road. the number was meant to be 3.3 and 2.7 after that. both the president and the prime minister are making it very clear at this stage that those numbers will not be hit. the numbers the intended to hit are 5000 more police. that europergue
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needs the fiscal impetus at the moment maybe this is one way of achieving that. you could argue that you get to bring for the price of one. more spending in an economy that arguably needs it and security services getting what they ultimately need. a win-win for those in paris and maybe not in brussels. jon: hans nichols is in brussels. let's be clear about it. france's been signaling that they will blow the dodge it on the economy but how does brussels and the eu accommodate with the french what to do here. from on today we will hear the eu deputy commissioner in charge of budgetary matters and we will see how much leeway he gives. his one guidepost, you can listen to what he has to say
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about the refugee crisis especially saying it was potentially extraordinary event that can trigger the suspension of those eu budget stability pact rules. that is one side. the other side is a was just over at the commission. and the defense ministers are meeting here in brussels. for so long the conversation has been on that other organizations, nato. and there is criticism that nato countries are not spending enough on defense. a criticismlly been lobbed from the u.s. and the u.k.. we have some words that may come back to haunt the french in moscovici now at the commission in charge of the economy, he doesn't seem that sympathetic to the idea of loosening budget rules because of the refugee crisis. we will be listening tightly to see whether he changes his line on whether or not you can listen the budget rules.
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him you hear more from throughout the morning. breaking news on russia, nejra cehic is standing by. just a few headlines coming out, some words from vladimir putin saying they want to terror caused the russian plane crash in egypt. putin saying we will find and punish perpetrators behind the egypt crash saying caused that a will boost airstrikes versus terrorists. traderswe will find everywhere and we will punish them. keep an eye on bloomberg.com. jon:, thank you very much. we will bring you the details as that story evolves. copper tumbles to a fresh six-year low. oil will ask what is next for the commodities slumped.
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jon: welcome back. i am jonathan ferro. let's talk commodities. lowestplunging to its intraday price since may 2009. as the oil price flirted with $40 a barrel for the first time since august. for more less bring in the
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editor. gentlemen, i know the fundamental story and my viewers know the fundamental story which is what took us to where we are. what you know what is driving us to the here and now. give appointment is just technical's driving the market into an attack but the asset effect as well. >> it does seem relentless but there is a lot of groom about excess supply and that is really combining with dollar strength which is proving very bearish for commodities. we see the dollar setting fresh highs. the story this morning. the only thing to look at is the dollar. >> a rising dollar is highly dis-inflationary. ultimately what the stronger dollar will do is that it is very leveraged and borrowed and dollars. there will be tremendous
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pressure to continue the expo cycle at lower prices so they will put another deflationary around the world and that will dampen things quite a lot. the central bank having a target of 2% inflation will be a long time in coming. jon: the demand story. someone can come on and have a discussion and be so flippant to say clearly demand a slowing in china. but when you look at the multistory and the opec commodity story. it is increasing in terms of demand. do we need to differentiate in terms of demand? >> is a lot of nuance. are stillned people buying gasoline cars and records number and when you compare that with the demand for fuel oil, which has many industrial uses. uses like cocoa.
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i look at the energy sector and these guys are cutting spending. they will cut investment at some point at the investment hasn't been made. the volume numbers coming out of those two companies, record highs for some of them in terms of output. at what point do they come back? >> there are still three things going on. what is your capital expenditure is down but only by 20% or 30%. there is a lot still going on more capacities will come on stream. but with the bigger players are doing is bringing in low unit the production to measure high cost producers taken out of the system and effectively you will get a consolidation but we are more than a year away from that. in the meantime they are operating in the wider spectrum
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and optimized for balance sheet to a higher price. is down trading cycles in front of you which means you have a lot of mergers and acquisitions going on. refinancing the debt and a lot more equity to be reached. that means we will go to a massive clearing process and the next 12 months. after that process of consolidation will he get to a position where the supply may come down a little bit. jon: the bryn curve has shifted down all the way towards 2020. when does it start to make a difference? >> you are seeing signs that it is making a difference. thatrday you said data showed the area at which has driven u.s. oil production is down and falling from a year ago. is coming down very fast and that will start to tell on non-opec oil production.
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in the oil market you are seeing developments which can point toward a turnaround next year. jon: potentially. maybe. i have to be cynical. thank you for joining us. bloomberg's managing editor and capital. speak to theill ceo of this recruitment company about a constant labor market. 26 minute into the session in the equity read across the board. the dax up by over 100 points. the theme in the fx market is a stronger dollar. and a commodity market, oil is trading below $42 per barrel and copper trading at a fresh seven-year low. seven-year low.
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what. you don't have a desk bed? don't be left in the dark. get proactive alerts 24/7. comcast business. built for business. jon: welcome back to "on the move. 30 minutes into your trading day and this is how the market is trading. the ftse 100 up by 84 points. points up by over 100 with equity markets rallying across the continent. a bit of a euro tailwind this morning. that is a seven-month low there. and a headline in the commodity market. copper trading at a fresh six-year low. let's get to the top stories and
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get to nejra cehic. >> i'm starting with the biggest gainer on the stock 600 today. along with johnson and johnson it one u.s. approval for their drug which treats multiple my loma which is a deadly blood capsule. the food and drug administration cleared it for use in patients who received at least three part -- prior treatments. moving onto cable and wireless. the telecom company which before today with the second-best performer on the stock 600 telecoms index. shares are up as much a 7.5% this morning after liberty global agreed to by cable and wireless in a deal worth $5.3 billion. we cope to the -- spoke to the cable and wireless ceo earlier who said the deal adds scale. shareholders liking it judging by the stock move.
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and moving on to easyjet, easyjet posted a record four year profit. they more than made up for disruptions earlier in the year will stop so these were record earnings but the problem is when a lot of this is about expectations, they were a myth. jon: let's talk by the future of europe's labor market. i'm pleased to welcome the ceo of the recruitment company rent stead who joins us for his first interview of the morning. the numbers make your life easier. it's the biggest move since february 2015. i sat down with the policymaker yesterday at the ecb all stop the recovery is fragile. is your company doing this or is the economy doing better than people think? >> it is a bit of both.
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sodo a lot of temporary jobs it's a sweet spot for us, but we are also doing better than many markets certainly france which is the big upsurge into q3 and q4 we're roughly 3.5% above markets. .t is a bit of both , the profits increasing and increasing, could you keep this up going into 2016? 30 basisnk we can get points up next year. profituro of gross should translate into $.50. jon: in europe your cfo says you're looking to buy's mid to small companies. have you got an eye on the couple of companies and where are they situated. not just in europe we're looking at midsize companies in europe and also in the u.s.. would like to expand the geographical footprint in
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attractive markets in europe or the u.s.. we are number three in the u.s. but still we have a 3% market share so there is still a lot out there. jon: the permanent side of the business. the temporary is great for you but the permanent site is making more of a mark. is that what you're going after? is this a shift in strategy? >> not through acquisitions. permanent placement is microstrategy with us. consultants have had them sell. this is working well for us, so our growth is not necessarily what you see in the market. jon: the demand for permanent workers. does it tell you anything about the state of the european economy? >> not so much in the european economy. in the u.s. you see a full-blown cycle. employment is a record low. record high confidence. jon: a lot of discussion in
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europe. i want to talk to you more specifically about economic migrants. europe is a diverse place. it is way more resilient than the spanish labor market. are you in aings, position to help them get jobs and did you see a huge demand for it? >> it is a very important question and we cannot solve this, but we can help. we are talking in germany and the netherlands. we are saying that you need to process people quickly. look with the training is and what they have been doing in the country they're coming from. if they have good employability and the don't immediately take the jobs and process them quickly and learn the language and get them housing and get them in. as you mentioned, germany has 3% unemployment. they need people.
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could comeocess under threat in the months to come. there could be more and more layers of bureaucracy added to europe. is that a threat to your business specifically and do you see a potential slowdown? >> it is the opposite. when i talk to policy makers they really want to make it efficient. to bemetimes laws need changed. in germany they know what is coming at them and they are pragmatic. jon: when i see the stock up 7% i don't want to ask about concerns. what are you happy about and onfident about? >> happy that we are doing better than markets that is for us the best proof we are benefiting from markets as such. it is funny, on one end you seat and a lot of clients
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looking for talent. there is a lot of opportunities worldwide. we always say there is the scarcity of talent that people are living in the wrong places. bring them from india to europe. there are lots of opportunities that we need to talk about. >> final question i am an investor a come up to you later on and i say euro-dollar, big exposure in the united states. how are you dealing with that. the good news is we don't have that exposure because the money stays in the country. our revenue goes up because four x costs go up but we have a slight uptick as a result. jon: thank you for joining us this morning. that stock trading much higher this morning. record easyjet reports full-year profits but can they keep up momentum we hear from their ceo carolyn mccall.
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jon: good morning, i am jonathan ferro in the city of london and this is on the move. you are looking at live pictures of the palace. john kerry is set to meet with president francois hollande and we will continue to monitor any updates out of paris throughout the morning. for now, 40 minutes past the hour at let's get to their top stories. european earnings
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declined in october. 2% carunted for registrations last month as opposed to 21% one year earlier. france has destroyed islamic state's command center in northern syria. the french defense ministry says 10 were involved in the rate earlier. earlier france while lot called on the u.s. and russia to forge a new alliance to destroy the islamic state. russian president vladimir putin says it was a terror attack that caused the russian plane in egypt. in other news, they've agreed to by cable and wireless communications in a 3.5 million pound deal. cnw shareholders will get a special three pence per share dividend when the deal closes. speaking exclusively to
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bloomberg, the ceo told us why he thinks it is a good deal. we will join forces with liberty global which is the largest international cable player in the world. the ring a lot of content to us and scale to us. and i think it will be good for our people. they can develop more and the region and it will be good for our u.k. as well. fromin the market cap go 1.1 billion in the last couple of years to 3.6 in the back of the steal. jon: nejra cehic has more on that. nejra: cable and wireless shares the back ofing off this deal. your today it is now the best performer on the stoxx 600 telecoms index, up more than 60% this year. cable and wireless shareholders can get a special three pence per share dividend at the deal close with this $5.3
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billion deal but as far as what lip liberty global is going to get we know that the chairman is no stranger to dealmaking. he spent more than $50 billion decade amassing cable companies across europe and this will give him critical mass. because cable and wireless got more than half of its revenue from latin america from panama and the caribbean last year. this critical mass has been described at high growth and under had a traded. that is what liberty global will get at it. what is this mean for further talks with vodafone. talks with liberty and vodafone and down in september. there is a possibility that a revival of those talks will be less likely. jon: let's continue the corporate news. easyjet reporting fiscal year results in line with estimates.
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this is them standing in the aftermath of the tragic events in paris. kerry joins us now. the momentum that seems to be behind the budget carriers is a question that has to be asked. it will be interesting to see how the winter plays out. the rhetoric this morning was fairly positive that will be growing capacity 7% during the fiscal year. they had two months, september and october at 90%. they seem to be feeling they can push through and continue to be filling up planes and getting passengers to fly. jon: secretary kerry just arriving to talk with francois hollande. in the months and years to come. for the airlines, the stock market, the reaction was to sell airline stocks. they will have a fundamental impact. >> here in the u.s., and in china they have been rebounding
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a little bit. after big events like this, september 11, seven/seven here, there is a four to five weeks of depressed travel maybe. but people need to travel. they need to do business and they continue traveling. paris is an amazing destination and it is one that easyjet is very focused on. as carolyn mccall was saying, there is a number two player. it is a very important market for them. jon: in terms of extra layers of security, for someone who traveled in the last 24 hours i didn't see anything. but on both occasions coming out of london out of frankfurt, they tests to see if it came in contact with any explosives. they seem to be using that more. do you anticipate more layers of security? >> you have to wonder.
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david cameron yesterday announced they will be doubling spending on aviation security. one of the things he was saying is that they are going to be putting more people into airports in north africa. putting people there and checking their security. pushing the border outside the u.k.. past. up and the their preclearance and ireland. things like that might start happening more. it is not going to get easier. let's put it that way. jon: more stock stories. corporate news keeps coming in. european car registrations rising in october. that marks the 26th straight month. he's bloomberg's european automotive team leader. overall, sales are up at the first thing you did and that we all did was look for that vw
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number. what did you make of it? two things.from even before the diesel scandal emerged, volkswagen's market share was already declining mainly because the lineup is not being updated as quickly as rivals. for the october figures we definitely saw a downturn in the actual sales. they fell while the rest of the market group -- grew. volkswagen is showing signs that people are thinking twice before they buy a volkswagen car because they are not sure about what is going on with the emissions issue. numbers are registration numbers and they don't really tell you about prices or profits. the registration that may have been offered, how much of that was from price cuts? >> it is hard to determine.
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be done byuts will dealers in particular countries. we saw evidence in germany that volkswagen widened their discounting. a few years ago we noticed that those companies which were discounting the most were not being held particularly by the discounts. they were among those which fell the most. it is hard to say, but it is probably unlikely that price cuts are going to stave off a downturn. jon: you dig through the numbers in the past couple of hours. as you look at things, which market is behind the overall growth? >> can use it again? -- can you say that again? look at the overall markets, which are the dominant
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drivers of growth? >> germany continued to grow, france grew as well. continuing to be grow because there is an incentive program from the government for what we call an american cash for clunkers encouraging trade-ins of older vehicles for more efficient ones. the budget for that has yet to be spent. there is still growth potential in spain. jon: great to have you with us to break down the auto sales numbers in europe. up next, the deflation dilemma. due to comeflation in below zero, will this summer be enough to convince the bank of england that the only way is up? that story and live pictures on the screen of the palace as the u.s. secretary of state john kerry arrives. his meeting with president francois hollande is imminent.
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we'll bring you any news of that meeting throughout the morning. ♪
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jon: a busy day ahead in the city of london. first up, inflation data. the estimates year on year for the second month. on the continent, germany to be specific. the survey for november and across the atlantic in the u.s.
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as well as industrial production data. expectations are that the u.k. figure will come in below zero. second month in a row. two men will dig through those numbers. and manus cranny. richard, negative inflation again. does the bank of england pay attention to what is happening this morning? >> if you listen to what they said super thursday, they certainly do. to me it is the sterling exchange rate. look what the pound has done against the euro this morning. super thursday, we had a 2% decrease immediately in the wake of the queue ir and the minutes and the pound has just roared since then. manus: but that is euro weakness. >> of course it is, but it is still real. manus: but can that continue
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from where we are now? in your piece this warning you wrote that the first rate hike is all the way back out to 2017. we really have flip-flopped. we went from q1 2017, all the way back to august. >> we never actually fully priced august. manus: 87% -- 80% isn't bad. jon: i will make you an offer. the negative print in the u.k. in the underlying economy or a positive print in the eurozone. i can guess her answer, and my question -- guest your answer, and my question is are we at risk of a narrow focus on inflation target? >> that is a big question to answer but that is what the bank of england's mandate is and that is what they focus on. you can argue they should have a broader focus but this is the mandate they have and that is what they're focused on. manus: we have a poll at
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bloomberg overnight which this thing in 31 economists are satisfied with the level of communication coming from mark carney. 71% of economists are satisfied with the communication strategy so far. i find that fascinating. jon: i will not possibly comment on if i'm satisfied with the comedic asian, -- communication, but euro sterling against the dollar at a seven-month low. another calls on euro-dollar. goldman looking for parity. what are the analysts on the south side saying? where do i get the best bang for my buck? on thee is not unanimity euro-dollar being weak or. but there is a developing consensus. it is a crowded trade and we could get a bit of a bounce.
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but it is an interesting one because if the ecb cuts, if the fed raises rates, the euro-dollar will probably trade lower. i think euro sterling will definitely trade lower on that scenario. cranny, you have about 20 seconds. manus: we will talk about the most aggressive headline we had in the last 20 minutes. attackays the terror caused the russian plane to go down. vengeance? this is from putin. we know that john kerry is meeting francois hollande today. and set to meet putin next week. it is very much geopolitics in terms of the next step with russia and the ukraine. up, many credits and francine lacqua after the break -- manus cranny and francine lacqua after the break.
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equity markets pushing another leg higher. the euro at a seven-month low. ♪
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[singing marsailleuse] rancine: prince wall ho-- first wall on orders m airstrikes -- hollande orders more airstrikes. commodity crunch. $40bal growth drives oil to a barrel. inflation headache. manus: ecb board member peter craig

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