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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  November 20, 2015 1:00am-3:01am EST

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anna: will the ecb president dropping hints about policy at finance week? saysrench prime minister the paris killers used the refugee crisis to slip into the country and braces the nation fofor the fight ahead. all -- we to be give need to be ready to give all of our minds to win and we will win, absolutely. anna: going dutch. euros as thes government recoups some of the money it spent bailing out to
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the bank. welcome to "countdown." 6:00 here in london. let's go straight to the asian market story. biggest weekly advance in six weeks. it was looking like it some of thoseg games early in the session but we have seen a pickup again. the shanghai composite up by around half of 1%. shanghai headed for a weekly advance. we have had career closing pretty flat. the nikkei closing higher by about 1/10 of 1%. some good gains australia. up about one third of 1%. in hong kong, things looking a
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little bit flat at the moment. , the mood has been a little bit weaker in the afternoon session. some of the main stocks we have been watching. the league performer in terms of percentage points of the msci regional pacific index. that is out in north and south agreed to talks. sharpton japan having its best to date again in four months after an expected return to profitability. reports that is going to launch a new budget. elsewhere, prime -- primary health care in australia lowered its profit forecast. looking good in japan, also in the health care space. in australia, one of the worst
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performers. brighteroking a little as we head into the final couple of hours here in asia. certainly on track for a weekly gain. the best gain in six weeks in asia. thank you very much. more from her later in the program. let's talk about europe now. mario draghi gets another chance to signal intentions for the european central banks extended meeting. ecbomes after an account of 's october meeting showed that the council was more worried about the deterioration in the inflation outlook there friday acknowledged during his news conference. good morning. how likely is it that rocky gives us any clues about next month's meeting?
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hans: good morning. i am here live from the paris opera house. already good news from the frankfurt opera house. that will have some sort of extension of qualitative easing. what we are to have today is a conversation between central bankers, lots of actual bankers. this would ecb talk about a couple of weeks ago when it decided to make schedules public of the central bankers. we had a big day ahead. it is getting kicked up by mario draghi. i am going to be listening for some sort of clues on what he said, the effect of what happened paris, the awful violence, what that will be to confidence, what that might do to change his outlook. we have heard from several central bankers and it could pose some sort of risk to everyone acknowledges is a tepid recovery.
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draghi.have mario that allows me to talk about italian opera versus german opera. -- gilted here, and we had a bar i will have my cameraman show you. if anything gets too heated, they can settle it over a whiskey here at the bar. given that you are not entirely sure which city orient, i think should stay away from that far. hans nichols there on the latest mario draghi watch. we will bring you mario draghi? live at draghi's speech 10:30. -- at 8:00 a.m. london time. >> the end line growth is
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healthy. obviously, we're going into a period of uncertainty in the markets. going to have rates going up in the u.s. and potentially coming down further in europe. from here, you have got to be more cautious. we have come a long way in recent years. from here, we will be more cautious. is from goldman sachs about our potential bash about this potential policy divergence. brandon browner joins us now. extra coming in. it seems that for the first time since 1994, we are talking about the potential for central-bank policy. all thrown into stark relief, given december is itself a reason for concern. relative toake extent of divergence.
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off invery little take federal reserve policy in december. 25 basis points. in a way, more important than that is what we are seeing from thepe, where we are seeing most likely continuation of the ecb's monetary experimentation. that is in a time when there isn't deflation around and it is quite a radical departure. i would concentrate on what we are seeing on the european side rather than the u.s.. on the u.s., you say there isn't much of a story. do you heed the warnings about things could happen in markets and we don't see the fed lift off. talking about the threat of a traumatic event.
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orl we see a genetic event will it be taken in its stride by the market. i don't expected to come from what the federal reserve is doing. potential threats out there. be a big upset or surprise in the economic data. that as a anna: you mentioned the possibility for internet event in the debt market. that somee worry corporate's will be able to service debts anymore. i don't see a link. there are a lot of problems out there in the high-yield credit
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markets. as you mentioned come in the energy area. we can see the private equity area where we have reports where some banks have not been able to sell off loans expected by the end of the year. that could lead to wider problems. in silicon valley, asset price inflation, we have this new this week that u.s. regulators are looking at how investment groups are pricing a lot of the unquoted investments. that is a bit reminiscent of the non-quoted assets up to the 2008 bubble and burst. anna: that doesn't bode well then. brendan: that whole area. when you in extreme valuations, anything can happen.
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you have to look for similarities across cycles. some of those are quite unnerving. the dollar int how that plays into fed thinking at the moment. do you think the dollar will be stronger if we see the fence raise rates and will there be further expectation rate hikes built-in> ? or do we suspect the fed is going higher and that is already in the price? don't see getting a lift from fed action in december which is going to be fairly limp anyhow. i think the key going forward is just how resilient and further we could get rises in these asset markets in the u.s., pulling in funds from abroad, and how resurgent the economy is. any bad news going to deflation would tend to take away. have already seen the
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dollar surged losing steam a little bit against japanese currency. there, we do have more divergent policies. will we see more qe from the boj? brendan: japan's divergence with the u.s. is much greater than european divergence. japan right now is actually accelerating its monetary base much more rapid than anything we've seen europe or the united states. japan, there probably is some sort of u.s. agreement with japan in the background not to go ahead with further monetary experimentation, at least at this point in time, given the sensitivities of china and the idea of stabilizing the chinese currency. anna: thank you for joining us. brandon brown stays with us from mitsubishi. presidenttime, ecb
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mario draghi will be speaking in frankfurt. some clues about what the central bank will do in december. for abn amro begin trading following the financial crisis bailout years ago. tying up another loose ends. this afternoon, eurozone consumer confidence at 3:00 p.m. u.k. time. >> we need to tell the truth to the french people. and we need tost be ready our lives to win. we will win, absolutely. anna: france's prime minister defined in the face of terror. look at the implications. ♪
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anna: back, you're watching "countdown." mario draghi gets another chance to signal intentions for the european central banks december meeting when he delivers a keynote speech at europe finance week this morning. meetingof the october shows that the council was more worried about the inflation outlook then drawn he acknowledged -- there mario draghi acknowledged. we will bring you the speech at 8:00 u.k. time. 3.3 billion raised euros in an initial public offering. that allows the dutch government to recoup some of the funds spent bailing out the company during the financial crisis. companies valued at 16.7 billion euros.
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members of the terrorists sell that carried out last friday's attacking -- in paris took advantage of the refugee crisis to "slip into france." that is according to the french prime minister. he said the agreement will be undermined if europe did not tighten security at its external borders. meanwhile, a french prosecutor says the man who -- says the man who led the attack was killed on a raid on wednesday. his body was found in an apartment in the suburbs of saint denis. let's get more on this story. the french prime minister says the people of his country need to gear up for a long fight against terrorism. >> we need to temperatures to the people. this one will be long and we need to be ready in give all over lives to win. we will win, absolutely. discuss.nty to
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carolinas in paris with the details. in st. denis, where the suspect spent his last few hours raid. the police the investigation here is still taking place, because as many as one or maybe two other bodies were found in these apartments. one of them is believed to be a woman, a cousin of abdelhamid abaaoud. the other one, the identity is still being checked. as many as eight people were also arrested during this operation. the police can question them for days.
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we know as many as nine people were arrested in belgium. as many as seven of them could bombersd to one of the at the stadium. searches have been taking place since friday, so we could know of more couples is in the next few days. the prime minister says that we cannot exclude, of course, more attacks, so this investigation will focus on finding how big was this network around abdelhamid abaaoud. anna: a lot of questions that remain to be answered about how this man of -- how this man managed to get into paris under the nose of intelligence agencies in france? there have been intelligence about him up the trail had gone cold. what do we understand now? -- >> abdelhamid
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andoud manus to come back forth between syria and europe at least once. in februaryttack, of this year, he was even giving an interview to the islamic state paper, boasting of his presence in belgium. in february of this year, his cell phone and laptop found in greece. the interior minister said yesterday that french intelligence authorities only received information of his presence in france three days after the attacks. >> we received no information from the european countries to which he might have transferred before arriving in france, indicating he may have reached europe. on november 16, after the paris attacks, the intelligence agency
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of a foreign country outside europe signal his presence in greece. >> the interior minister, who says we need collective realization from all ministers to move quickly. this of course will be discussed .n brussels today according to different sources, two things could be discussed today. could be onearea of the issues. the second thing that they will pnr, theis the passenger names records, that could be put in place in august to have a better check of the borders within the eu. anna: thank you very much.
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for peopleing search involved. let's think about the broader context of this story. speaking to abeen number of sources to get their predictions. europe,ubject of rebecca patterson said -- let's think of that talking wn.nt with brendan bro the tragic events of friday really focusing attention on this flow of refugees and migrants coming from the middle east, africa. what does that mean for the european economy in 2016 and beyond?
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one big issue here is what it means for german and french politics. 2016, we have a hall series of important state elections in germany. question number one is, does this mean significant shift toward the far right party in germany? how far is that undermine merkel, how does she respond to that? i think that is one big issue. of course, relating that back to the discussion we had earlier today, merkel is crucial in supporting draghi in his monetary experimentation. her poll numbers are dropping. i think that is one question. going on from there, again, in the german context -- and it was mentioned in the most recent
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migrationut what this will mean for german budget targets. we have seen the french talking about how security is more important. is fiscal spending going to be back in vogue in europe in 2016? brendan: i don't think that is so much of an immediate prospect. you will see some effect on budgets. but it isn't for wider fiscal uncertainty, some people have much to focus on. we did see a comment yesterday that he is very happy to see and what it europe does to the far right parties in france and germany, because the far right in europe is pro-putin. anna: what about what the ecb is wrestling with at the moment? does it make it politically easier for draghi to sell
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further qe to the establishment as we have seen with the awful events on friday and the potential trouble for the european economy ahead? merkel is very close to the big exporting companies, as we know. they are under pressure because of what is happened in china and emerging markets. together,ut all this drug he has even more cover to go ahead and do what he wants. obviously, expectations of weaker inflation is not something the ecb wants to take hold. we heard that from praet. doesn't immediately matter what is driving the weakness in oil prices? whether it is a -- whether is a supply story or a demand story.
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i heard reports that the ecb is wrestling with how to work that out in that dictates how worried they become. brendan: it is in a big concern at an economic level. with inflation at 1%, what is wrong with inflation at 1%? if you were to measure inflation to take account in the big increase in property prices, you would be near 2% inflation. it is very difficult to agree with mr. druggie that it is a deflation problem in europe. if you concentrate on the core country of germany. anna: that makes it a harder sell for the german economy. thank you very much. 6:26 in london. up next, as russian remains stuck in a recession, is a step toward the west a step toward sanctions relief? ♪
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(ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store.
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anna: [oh you're watching "countdown. mario draghi gets another chance to signal intentions for the european central bank when he delivers a keynote speak this morning. it comes after an account of the ecb's october meeting released yesterday shows the council was more in flurry -- was more worried about the inflation outlook than draghi acknowledged at a recent news conference. we will bring of his speech live at 8:00 u.k. time. members of the terror cell that carried out the attacks last
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week in paris took advantage of the refugee prices to "slip into france." that is according to the french prime minister. he said the shenzhen agreement europee undermined if did not tighten their borders. raises 3.3 billion euros at a ipo to allow the to recoup somet costs. emerging markets are about to turn a corner. in a new note, goldman sachs proclaims 2016 could be the year they put in a bottom and start to find their feet. nike has announced a $12 billion buyback scheme and a 2-for-1
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stock flip. take effect --l the plan will take effect what's the current buyback is complete. 30%stock is up more than this year thus far. now, to look at some of the stories you need to know this morning. let's have a look at how the markets are performing. >> i'm focusing at the moment on the commodity currencies defying the route in commodity prices. we have seen them gain against the dollar. i am talking about the aussie dollar, the new zealand dollar, and the south african rand. what this is about is traders focusing on the potential for gradual rate rises from the fed after the first rate increase, which could happen in december this year. the aussie is poised for back-to-back weekly advances, with traders paying the smallest premium on options in more than
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a year. this is even as iron ore, australia's chief export, has dropped to a four-year low. part of the game that we saw yesterday was also about the central bank raising the benchmark rate by 25 basis points. positioning itself ahead of a fed rate increase. terminal, i can see they are now pricing in a 68% probability of a rate hike. let me turn to the dollar yen. basically, the dollars gain against the yen is losing steam. this is as investors are sort of shifting their attention again to have fast the fed raise interest rates for next year. you can see here where the dollar actually hits a 13 year high against the yen.
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the yen is falling back since then. at a three-month high, the dollar against the yen. that is followed back now what you can see it weakening today. is even as two-year treasury yields are offering the widest premium over japanese notes april 2010. this is much less about that spread and much more about the yield curve which is affecting the dollar. weakening dollar against the yen, but goldman sachs recommended next year buying the greenback against both the euro and the yen. thank you. 6:34 here in london. european more on the response to the france attacks. but speak to in, who is an hour who is aneak to ian,
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hour brussels bureau. was arrangedng street after the attacks last week. they are talking about strengthening the eu's external border. that is travelers coming back into europe from the u.s. or from turkey into greece, even london into brussels and paris. it is about eu citizens having a passport systematically checked, checked against a database just find out who they are and where they are coming from. it is about making your of a fortress, really, so the terrorists, like the ringleader of the attacks in paris last week, they know where they are. anna: bloomberg has done some work on what a europe without the schengen agreement would look like, what that would mean .ith -- me for travelers, etc.
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the french seem to think that certain things need to happen on the external border to enable schengen to survive. ian: schengen is europe's internal borders. it is about whether you can travel from say, france to germany, without having your passport checked, which you have been able to do for about 20 years. for some time now, particularly eastern and balkan european states have been calling for tighter controls even on the internal borders. resisted by the western countries like france and germany. but these terrorist attacks last are putting more pressure on that. they are saying, we have got to know where terrorists are. if we don't know, we can't keep tabs on them. anna: thank you for joining us. is drawnent putin
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closer to the west by a common enemy, what does it mean for the russian economy, stuck in recession? could this be the first step toward a thawing of sanctions? let's go to the executive vice president and head of international affairs at the u.s. chamber of commerce. he joins us now from hong kong. let's talk a little bit about the possibility of a thawing of relations between the west and russia. thatou getting a signals that is something that is going to be on the trade agenda in the future? >> first of all, what happened in paris was tragic. the fact that isis is a global threat, not just a french threat. it is great for the united states and russia and france and others are talking about how to combat isis. no expectations that there will be an end of
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sanctions policy with russia. in fact, as you know, the policy was put in place because of the events in ukraine, not in syria. i think it is going to be a long time before we can rollback sanctions. i think a lot of progress we made in europe. -- would have to be made in europe. there's no question it has hurco companies in the oil and gas sectors, and also russian counter sanctions have heard american agricultural suppliers. anna: is there a business lobby that is being very vocal at the moment trying to get you to bring down various trade between the u.s. and russia? >> we supported russia's succession to the world trade organization, we supported normal trade relations between our two countries. we see all of that as a pathway
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to expanding trade. russia is potentially an important market. there's no question, that years was there.ptimism today, different set of facts, different set of considerations. we believe it is going to be a long road for russia's economy rebounds. there are really questions about russia's government's implementing a more open and transparent you -- transparent regime. particularly, russia's behavior in ukraine does not permit for now a reopening of that policy. short-term, the outlook is not good russia's economy or the rollback of sanctions policies. anna: let's move on. you are in hong kong and you're jcct the the big deal in that part of the world's been around tpp, the
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transpacific partnership, which excludes china. chinese,alking to the trying to persuade them to get involved with tpp, or is that not all the agenda? >> the transpacific partnership has the prospect of really changing the terms of trade and investment in this whole region, and i think for the good. creating high standards is a positive thing. if china wants to join the dpp down the road, they are going to have to meet the standards of the negotiations. showing interest for two plus years. we have been seeing it from officials in china and discussions with president xi jinping. it is going to take a while for china to meet those standards. china is reforming its economy but it has a long way to go. i think what we are looking to t is evidence that
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china wants to move forward with a bilateral treaty with the united states. it could be a big deal for china's economy is losing ahead with these negotiations. it would open up its market to more investment from the united states. i think the first signal is to see whether china is really serious about these negotiations. jcct is a platform for china to demonstrate that seriousness. anna: is very cold to get china into the tpp -- is there a goal to get china into the tpp? >> i think china and indonesia and other countries expressed interest. there are a lot of countries expressing interest. that inom line is, order for these countries to be a part of tpp, they will have to meet the comprehensive high standards that have been set in the negotiations. after all, the united states has work to do.
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we have to see that it gets through the u.s. congress. it is going to be difficult in an election year. there are -- there are other countries that are already part of the club that have work to do in their own domestic forum. we want to see china down the road be a part of the nations that have high standards and open up this orchid. tpp to see china take the as a serious platform. i think we are talking about the road ahead sometime. there is funny of time to debate the merits of china's entry into the tpp. i think the more decisive short-term wrapper china would be to have them make progress in their bilateral negotiations with the united states on an investment treaty. anna: thank you so much for joining us and good luck with your conversations over there on your way to china. myron brilliant. raised 3.3 billion
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euros in its ipo, allowing the dutch government to recoup some of the bailout money it gave out during the height of the economic crisis. now kind of bank is abn compared to the business that in 27 was so if the sleep taken sor by r -- that in 2007 was infamously taken over by rbs? >> it is a steady dividend payer , which has a lot of mortgages on its balance sheet. as a steady business model which they try to copy off scandinavian banks. you go back to 2008, the dutch government nationalized the fortis bank at
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the time. today, it is a seminal event for the dutch public. anna: tying up of get another loose and from the financial crisis. why is this ipo becoming so political? i suppose it is part of the fact of the initial bailout. >> the dutch finance minister, who has also helped bailout the hasks earlier this year, staked his political career partly on getting abn back to market. he is really in the driver seat, and not the bankers. thank you very much for joining us, david. on the tying up of that loose end around abn amro, if you can call 16.7 billion
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euros tie have a loose end. 6:44 in london. up next, the reality of $50 oil. a full report on the 2016 oil and gas outlook from our own oil experts. ♪
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anna: back, you are watching "countdown." mario draghi gets another chance to signal his intentions of the european december meeting when he delivers the keynote speech this morning. it comes after an account released yesterday of the october meeting showing the council was more worried about the deterioration in the inflation outlook then drive he had perhaps acknowledged. we will bring you his speech live on bloomberg at 8:00 this morning u.k. time. inbers of the terrorist cell
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last friday's attacks in paris took advantage of the refugee crisis to "slip into france." that is according to the french prime minister. agreemente schengen will be undermined if europe did not tighten security at its borders. china says authorities and cracked the country's largest underground bank, which handled illegal foreign-exchange transactions. over 100 people have been arrested or face lawsuits. -- payments company cofounded by twitters jack dorsey many strong debut. an initial evaluation of more than $4 billion. the company plans to use the proceeds to make acquisitions and also believe it will help them continue to grow.
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>> it is something that has been a long road. this is what can help us build the tools to share with our customers in the right way. anna: a year and a half ago, was on thed -- brett way to a price collapse that would change the global economy. what is to come in the brave new world of $50 oil? senior oil and gas analyst has the outlook for next year. he joins us now with brendan brown. philip, you talk to the introduction about $50 oil, is that were easy things settling? -- is that where you see things settling? grexit doesn't look
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like it is going to change a lot. libya coming back, iran ramping up production. iraq productions. that are a couple factors could increase supply. there are not that many factors that increase demand. anna: what is your expectation around oil? two currency see factors that could be weighing down on the oil price. is the chinese currency falling substantially. is the possibility of some devaluation of the saudi currency in the gulf currencies. i would pinpoint the degree to
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which the saudi's are isolated and hemmed in by these geopolitical events, which will make them even more determined not to cut back production. anna: so you think they will become even more determined to stick with their current policy? brendan: and may be reinforced with a devaluation. anna: what closed you see in the way opec has been behaving recently as to how long they are able to sustain the week prices and not come back on supplies? think it is led by the persian gulf countries. united arab emirates, kuwait, saudi. the are convinced that strategy they adopted a year ago was the right one. you see u.s. shale production has come down in the last couple of months. they see they are doing the right thing. how long can it last?
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i think it is a question of the saudi finance that will come under pressure. i think that it will take some time until this pressure is so strong that they really need to do something about it in terms of oil production. anna: what do you see in u.s. sales? u.s. ranks have been increasingly productive recently. shale is a very different way of production than conventional oil production. you have to drill a lot of wells. it is a really very standard process. there is a learning curve. it is also much more flexible. as soon as the oil price goes up again, shale producers will be able to ramp up production in a relatively short time period. we're talking about a couple of months.
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in the oil industry, months is seconds. a conventional oil project takes years. anna: what about the magnitude iran'sic -- magnitude of return to the market? >> etiquette is reasonable to assume that half a million barrels of additional supply will come upstream fairly quickly, within six months of removal of the sanctions. the jury's still out on how it will then continue. it depends on how quickly will international oil companies be able to move in. there are still legal requirements not completely defined. the international oil companies were very unhappy with the legal system that was in place before the sanctions, so they want changes to that, but it is not clear how far the iranian authorities will start adopting these changes. anna: thank you for joining us.
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philip from bloomberg intelligence. brendan brown stays within a little longer. you mentioned the china story in terms of what it does to the oil price. let's talk about china. goldman sachs today saying emerging markets might pick up next -- the growth story in emerging markets might pick up next year for the first time since 2010. is that something you would go along with argue remain more concerned? brendan: i remain more concerned, although when someone talks about emerging markets, it is a heterogeneous collection. concentrate on china, the discussion isn't so much about china having a crash. they are going to have a crash. the discussion is much more relevant as to how slow it is going to be until china goes through any meaningful renaissance in shifting resources into new sectors.
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on that, i am fairly pessimistic. it is going to be many years of really slow growth. if you measure that according to western standards, may be in the range of 1%-3%. anna: that is your expectation? brendan: in terms of the underlying numbers. maybe the official of with more like 5%-6%. if it catches a cold, than the rest of the global economy feels it. it is not a hard landing in the sense of a financial crash, but in the sense of a long period of close to stagnation. some financial flares that will undermine currency stabilization. anna: thank you for spending the time with us this morning. brendan brown from mr. vinci securities -- from mitsubishi securities. up next, we will run you through
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everything you need to know for the start of the trading jay -- trading day. mario draghi speaks in frankfurt. what clues might give about race. ♪ . . . ♪
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(ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store.
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the: draghi's dilemma, will ecb president drop hints about policy as he speaks? we hear from him in an hour. the french prime minister says the paris killers use the refugee crisis to slip into the country. this war will be long and we need to be ready. but we will fight, absolutely. ipo: and going dutch, an as the3.3 billion euros government recoup some of the money that is spent bailing out banks.
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welcome to "countdown." i'm anna edwards. the second hour of the program, just after 7:00 here in england. the futures markets suggest we will be fairly flat at the start of european trading, european stocks expected to be down just a touch. not much of a move. the ftse 100 could have some small gains, the european equity markets may be a little bit weaker at the start of trade, but lacking much direction. on course for their biggest weekly advance in six weeks. rising at the final minutes of the day. let's update the asian equity session. juliet? juliet: good morning, talking about a lack of direction, we have had that also in asia, but
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near the closing we have had some good buying, so japan moving higher by .1%,. this has been good for the asian markets, particularly with the lly, up 1.6%, its best weekly gain in over a month. the shanghai composite up .4$, some strong gains from a number of companies that hit that limit -- they are up .4%. in hong kong, the last hour of trade, we have seen the likes of china resources looking quite strong, so a little bit of a pickup in some of those property stocks. taiwan and singapore the laggards in the region, australia with another strong 3%.sion, about . for that weekly gain of 1.7%, a little switch out from utility stocks and from
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the consumer sector, but we had good moves coming through from the banks. also, a lot of interest in the health care sector, up over .5%. this is probably the chart of the day, the malaysian ringgit continuing to strengthen against the u.s. dollar, up 1.6%, so that is the dollar falling against that currency. the reason this is important is because when we see emerging market currencies rise, we start to see investors take on a little more risk. day,inly the chart of the but a good weekly gain for asian stocks. back to you. anna: all eyes on president obama and his meetings, juliette , thank you. mario draghi will get to give some of his intentions for the european central bank when he delivers a keynote address this evening, after the october
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meeting minutes were released thursday, showing the government counsel was perhaps more worried about deterioration in the inflation outlook than he had acknowledged during the news conference. hans nichols joins us from frankfurt. be speaking later on. how likely is it that we will get some clues from him about next month's meeting? s: well, mario draghi is an expert at speaking in kaluz, almost speaking in riddles, airy careful not to go too far the aunt what he thinks the minutes reflected. we may hear about what he thinks the effect of the paris attacks, what that will do to confidence, what that will do to certainty or uncertainty. we have now heard from three, members of the ecb, and they have expressed concern about what paris will do to overall economic growth and confidence.
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that is what we will be listening for from mario draghi. we are here at the frankfurt opera house, crawling with bankers, central bankers, actual bankers in just a few moments. we will get his views on what he thinks about what the confidence outlook is like and if it will do anything to induce the akropean central bank to twe with their doing with quantitative easing. it is clear they will extend the amount of time and asset purchases, but will the mixture have to change because of paris, that is among the topics we will be talking about, as well as the potential effects on emerging markets. and i will not drag you into our off-line conversation on-air about german versus italian opera. i know like all things, you tend to make the right decision. anna: you will get me into trouble, yeah, hans. we don't need to dwell on that. thank you very much. mario draghi's's will be live at
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8:00 u.k. time. he probably will not be talking about opera, but it is a beautiful setting. as we have been hearing, the bundesbank president will also speak. down with hissat deputy, claudia bush, and asked about the role of central banks in identifying systemic risk. claudia: we don't provide really identifying whether or not there is a bubble in certain markets. i don't think that is the task of central banks. we try to see the incentives of the system, are they misaligned to induce investors to going to a certain asset class which they would not do under the right incentives. anna: brendan joins us from frankfurt. great to have you on the program.
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say the goals were not the task of the central bank. i thought that was one of their tasks. brendan: yeah, that got my attention, too, but she is not necessarily being alan greenspan, who famously said i don't even know if we can see a bubble when it is coming. macro is an interesting place. all the bankers and central bankers are gathered at the opera house, all the imf and bundesbank wonks are looking at massive data sets. the problem is, how do you take that and turn it into policy. we talked about the european-wide credit register, basically every transaction over 25,000 euros gives you an amazing, complete picture of what is going on. i asked specifically, how do you know looking at this dashboard of information, what do the flashing lights tell you? she is not saying we cannot see
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bubbles coming. she is saying we should be better than that, we should figure out where the risk overload is before we get there to make sure there is adequate capital buffer. there is the tom cruise movie "minority report" where they're looking at pre-crime. she has enough date, they want to look pre-bubble. is in charge of macro credential stability. with quantitative easing from various central banks, has that made her life and the lives of others like hers more difficult? brendan: i asked her exactly that. she said, of course, when rates go this low, there will be a flight to risk to get return. specifically she brought up the german property market. the bundesbank data shows the town prices have gone up, the cities have gone up
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significantly. they have looked at it. they don't see a bubble. what they see as demographic change in larger cities, behavioral changes, young people moving to cities thinking about buying houses. she did not necessarily see it the mystically. i asked her about the possibility of european-wide deposit insurance, a very difficult part of the common resolution mechanism, supposed to happen next. -- moved the ball in clement she moved the ball incrementally down the field and said, yes, but we have to make sure european policies are up to european standards. you could call that a tiny bit of news, a german willingness possibly in the future to accept this if a series of conditions have been met. for the record, i prefer puccini. anna: thank you very much, we will bring you into our off-line conversation about opera. i'm not impressed is my message to hans in frankfurt.
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thank you very much, brendan. members of the terrorist cell which carried out the paris attacks last week took advantage of the refugee crisis to slip into france according to the prime minister of the country. the agreement could be undermined if europe does not tighten security at its external borders. he is also asking people of his country to gear up for a long fight against terrorists. >> we need to tell the truth to the french people. this war will be long and we need to give all of our minds and will. we will win, absolutely. anna: more details are emerging about the attacks that killed 129 people last week. carolina has the latest update from paris. i am here, hearing about the alleged mastermind of
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the terrorist attacks last week. we don't know yet whether he blew himself up or whether he was killed by sniper during the police operation in the early hours wednesday. the latest information we have, according to media reports from television, is he may have been seen on video surveillance in a tube station east of paris friday night at 10 p.m., that is the time when the concert situation was still taking place. he was believed to still be in syria until a few days ago. know theo believed to man who is still at large at the moment, spending some time in jail in 2010 in belgium for some petty crimes. the investigation is continuing.
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eight people have been arrested as part of this operation, and the police are still analyzing dna samples from the flat they rated that could also involve a woman, a cousin, and possibly a third body found in the apartment. anna: there has been plenty of intelligence, but the trail has gone cold. any people raising questions about how the european intelligence agencies managed to lose track of this man, so much so that he spent that time in paris. exactly, and this is the biggest concern, how french intelligence, european intelligence services failed to know that he was indeed in paris, so so close to close to this event that happened last friday. we know that his cell phone and
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laptop were found in greece in february 2015. that is also when he gave an interview to the islamic state interview -- islamic state newspaper talking about being in europe. the interior then said he only received intelligence about his presence in france two days after the attacks. have a listen. >> we received no information from the european countries through which he might have transited before arriving in france indicating he may have reached europe and headed to france. on november 16, after the paris attacks, the intelligence agency of a foreign country signaled his presence in greece. caroline: france only received intelligence on monday, from a country outside of the european union. we know this country may be
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morocco, so france may have the information from moroccan intelligence. 'sesident francois hollande meeting with the king of morocco in paris later today. the focus will also be in brussels, where they will discuss how the intelligence ofled, the possible creation a european passengers name record system, and another system. caroline, thank you for the latest in paris. up next, we speak to the and get his thoughts on the ecb and what he wants to hear from mario draghi today. does it matter if the u.s. and the ecb are going in different directions on monetary policy in the same month? more thoughts in just a moment.
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i'm anna edwards. anna: welcome back. here are the stories you need to know. has raised 3 billion euros in an ipo, allowing the dutch government to recoup some of its funds from bailing out the lender. the banks all 188 million shares , valuing the company at 3.3 billion euros. members of the terrorist cell that carried out the attacks in paris took at finish the refugee crisis to sneak into france according to their french prime minister. he said the agreement would be undermined if europe does not tighten security at its external borders. a french prosecutor said the man who led the terrorist attacks last week was killed and a
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police raid wednesday. his body was found in an apartment in the paris suburb. another chancets to signal intentions for the european central bank at a meeting when he delivers the keynote speech later this morning. this is after an account of the october meeting release wererday showed they perhaps more worried about the deterioration in the inflation outlook then draghi -- than draghi acknowledged during his news conference. we will bring you that speech live in about 40 minutes. less than an hour until that speech, let's go to hans nichols in frankfurt, standing by with thoughts on what we might get from mario draghi, and a guest. dr.: anna, i'm joined by hans-werner sinn. thank you very much for joining us on bloomberg television. the attacks in paris, we have
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heard from some central bankers it will diminish confidence. what is your view on what terrorism in europe will do to the overall confidence, not just to germany but across the eurozone. guest: it will reduce the confidence, the effect is surprisingly small. receivedator that we did not react, stock markets did not react, so i think not very much will happen unless there are further attacks, unless some countries officially go to war to syria and so on. we looked at what this means for the agreement. the slow at the borders. is that going to affect the soft recovery in europe? guest: yeah, we have of course the refugee problem, which, however from the business perspective, is actually a positive stimulus because governments use their surplus to
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finance the refugees rather than repaying their debt. that is a stimulus. do you have any modeling, or how much to you expect -- just germany, on refugees, how much that will increase gdp? have: oh, for one year, we 20 billion euros extra cost. and if the government does not save this money elsewhere, then -- hans: that is additional stimulus. guest: yes, additional stimulus. hans: the numbers don't seem to indicate we have much inflation in germany. you seem to think there is some inflation in germany. thinkn where, and why you the ecb is not looking at it? guest: the numbers have come up
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quite a bit. since 2010, germany has had a construction boom. from the nontrade sectors, we have wage increases, which translates into the price level of goods produced in germany. and the price of imported goods. oil prices have declined. that compensates for, but it does not negate it. the core inflation is actually increasing. in the whole eurozone we have a substantial increase in the core inflation rate. s: what is your theory on why mario draghi and the ecb is looking through this increasing inflation? guest: for them, it's not enough, or they want to have an excuse why they can continue buying government bonds. at thehen you look government bonds they are buying, will you run out of room to buy german bonds?
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is there a liquidity problem eventually? guest: yeah, not enough of them may be the case, and then the ecb would have to think about something else. they talked about the capital union. 1-wood securitize assets and make them tradable -- one would securitize assets and make them tradable, which is something they could do. does this give to much breathing room to countries to potentially not reform their economies? they refinanced at historically low levels. will we see the monetization of fiscal policy? ropean problem is the initial credit bubble, and now we need differential inflation to compensate for that. and italys to inflate has to stay put, like other southern european countries. that happens to some extent, but
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i would have liked to have seen inflate morely dis- than they do. italy and portugal really have inflate it relative to the european zone, well greece and spain have done it and ireland did it already a long time ago and they are out of trouble. the: we were talking about next age of greece, it looks like the banks will get the additional capital. maybe not bailed, but additional capital. are we out of the woods on greece? guest: of course not. greece is not competitive, and we overcompensate this lack of competitiveness with more and more public credit coming from other countries. the new program last four three years. earlier,f years, even we will be debating the greek problem again because then they will need a fourth program. at the moment, the money will largely be used to recapitalize the banks.
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they want to do that before the first of january because that will be a new bear in the woods. the old owners of the banks will lose their capital before the new capital comes in from the public sector, and everything is to be done now before the end of the year. hans: given the uncertainty it paris,way in greece and where is the european recovery now? is a returning to normal growth levels, or will it be 1.2%, 1.5%? guest: no, europe for the first evil future will have very low growth -- for the foreseeable future have very low growth because it has internal blems,ural pro brought about by the imbalances. we will have to channel public credit from the north to the south to replace the capital markets, and the money will in interiornvested
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uses, driving down the european growth rate. when we look at the macro economy globally, what is the next two years? guest: we don't see it. we don't see it. of course, no one knows about political dimensions. if there is an acceleration, which is possible, then that could have negative repercussions. 11, theks of september iraq war at the time, then we really were in a bad situation. but let's hope that does not happen. sinn, thank you as always for your time, and, anna, back to you. anna: hans, thank you, talking to dr. hans-werner sinn. next, the government recoup
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some of the money that it spent bailing out the bank. details next. spent 22 government billion euros bailing out this business. it is now valued at 16.7 billion. more details of this fascinating post-crisis story, next. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,
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and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. anna: welcome back.
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you are watching "countdown." mario draghi gets another chance to signal intentions of the ecb's december meeting when he delivers the keynote speech this morning. this after the account of the ecb's october meeting shows the government council was more worried about deterioration in the inflation outlook than draghi had acknowledged. we will bring you his speech live later tomorrow -- later this morning in about half an hour. members of the terrorist cell that carried out the attacks in paris took advantage of the refugee crisis to slip into france according to the country's prime minister.
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zoneid the passport-free would be undermined if europe did not tighten security at its external borders. after three years of deposed -- of disappointment, external markets are about to turn the corner according to goldman sachs. they proclaim 2016 could be the year that assets start to climb. the cohead of investment banking says that people should take a cautious view one asset markets because prices are at elevated levels and central banks are heading in different directions. >> the underlying growth is healthy. going into uncertainty, central bank policy is diverging and rates will go up in the u.s. and potentially come down further in europe, and the asset markets are at a level. from here you have to be cautious for stop we have come a long way in recent years.
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from here we have to be more cautious. anna: live pictures of air force east asiang at the summit. obama will be meeting the malaysian leadership, something that has been playing into the mood we have seen in the malaysian ringgit overnight, the currency strength coming through. there is air force one on the lumpur.n kuala time to look at the futures and aboutou what they tell us what they will be trading on european equity markets. a fairly decent day over in asia, the asian markets doing quite nicely. the european expectation is they will be out on the euro stocks, the ftse 100 may get the better expectedgains, the dax to be fairly flat at the start of trade. toan stocks on course
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achieve their biggest weekly gain in six weeks, so a considerable trend coming through from the asian session. one of the big stock stories of the days is abn amro, raising , allowing theros dutch government to recoup some of its funds that it spent bailing out the banks. bruce david has been following this ipo. what does this ipo tell us and what does it mean for the dutch government? reporter: they spent 22 billion the008 trying to rescue bank, and it's an interesting story because it was the biggest -- bank win three games when the three games came to buy them. done by adeal was team, and this megadeal was put together at the height of the financial crisis. it showed some of the exuberance. ruth: one of the interesting
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things is they have gone from one of the world's largest consumer lenders to focusing on the netherlands. so going from big to small is good, small is what we want. it seems like investors are buying into the story. what we have heard from investors buying the shares, it seems they have managed to price in the middle of the range. there is a sense that trading will go fine. anna: back to boring banking is the way that our reporter was putting it. certainly in western europe, they have become boring banking, the bread-and-butter again. how is the valuation? there are something of a dutch discount, the dutch government maintains a considerable stake in the business and abn is no different. ruth: yes, that holds true for any seller reducing their stake in a large company. investors know they need to sell
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more. investors know they need to get out. a will have that discount. the comparables are ing, the other banks, the names that we were hearing during the ipo trading at about one times book. i think the way they have priced it, in the middle of that range, they have given investors a discount because they know they will come back to the markets and they need the liquidity to do that. billion, but 3.3 valuing the business at 16.7 billion. ruth david, thank you very much for that story. we will be closely watching any news in the wake of vw's emissions scandal. berlin, what can we expect from the meeting? any update on investment strategy? chris: we expect them to discuss their investment strategy. puts out aw
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five-year rolling plan. they may shorten that horizon to less than three years. the last time they did that was 2009 during the financial crisis, so that gave you a sense of the impact and scope of the crisis right now. they had to cut their time horizon. a will definitely cut average spending per year. in the past, the last budget was 17.1 billion euros per year, just for the group, not including the chinese joint ventures. they will cut that amount for sure. the question is by how much. there is also some question how much detail they will release in terms of the investment figures. there will also be a number -- i mean, last week the ceo and the labor chief gave some comments saying they would be on talks for 10 days.
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that expires today, so we are expecting some news from the investment planning, but also capacity and what they will do going forward. there could be quite a bit of news from the meeting today and we expect that to happen sometime in the afternoon. anna: interesting to see how far they step away from the normal practice and setting that investment horizon. chris, thank you very much for joining us. ,brentand half ago traded at $100 per barrel. would dominate market headlines and change the global economy. still talking about the deflation that brought about. heading into 2016, what is to come in the brave new world of oil, just south of $45? has published his outlook for next year and he joins us now. remind us the price action you arc specter next year.
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are we going to stay roughly where we are, not expecting the supply demand metrics to change drastically? phillip: exactly, not thinking there will be a big rebound. just because there are too many factors, too many bearish factors on oil. there is a lot of supply. assia is pumping as much they can, libya might be coming back, i ran after the sections will be trying to sell as much as they can. on the demand side, the demand is good but not strong enough to mop it up quickly. anna: you are not seeing signs as this continues of weaker oil prices. you don't see sign some of these producers will cut back, the opec countries, saudis? when did they decide to cut back on production, or the u.s. drillers, the shale drillers,
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when you see the change of strategy? the saudi's and their fellow opec members are convinced the strategy they have worked out is correct. u.s. shield production has come down in the last couple months -- u.s. shale production has come down in the last double months. the question is how long saudi arabia will be up and keep on that track financially and economically. of course they have suffered from it, but compared with other opec members like venezuela or nigeria, they are much worse off. i think until saudi arabia starts feeling the pain, this will take at least another couple months. or maybe even a year to see really a change of anything. for saudi arabia and the situation for stop either they keep producing as much as they
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can, which keeps oil prices low, or they cut back production which may raise oil price, but then they need to sell that oil, so they do not get more either. ipp, thank you, everything you need to know about the oil industry year. minutes away from the start of trading, we take you through the stocks to watch. abn amro gets back to the markets. we'll have details on that, next. ♪
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anna: you are watching "countdown." here are the stories you need to know -- mario draghi gets another chance to signal intentions for the european meetingbanks' december when he delivers a speech later this morning after the account of the ecb's october meetings shows they were will more worried about deterioration and inflation outlook than draghi had perhaps acknowledged during
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his news conference to stop we will bring you that speech live in about 17 minutes full s. members of the terrorist cell that carried out the paris attack slipped into france with refugees. the passport-free zone under the agreement would be undermined they said if europe did not tighten security at its external borders. china says authorities have cracked the country's largest underground bank which handled $64 billion of illegal transactions. state media says more than 370 people have been arrested or face lawsuits or other punishment. nike has announced a $12 billion buyback scheme in a 2-for-1 stock split that will take effect once the current $8 billion buyback is complete. nike wants to live sales by 6% by the end of the decade. the stock is up more than 30% this year.
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the final trading day of the european equity week, let's have a run through of the stocks to watch. reporter: i'm going to start with europe's biggest banking ipo since 2007, of course talking about the dutch lender trading, which starts today, raising 3.3 billion euros, selling 188 million euros, which is equivalent to a 20% stake and it at 16.7 billion euros. keep an i on that stock when the european equity start trading at 8:00 london time. i'm also looking at vw, a couple of stories here. new multipurpose vehicles and a wagon to its china lineup, also planning to
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sell 10 suv's within the next few years. this is about the carmaker and it's crucial models for the world's biggest market from the omission scandals and spending cuts. may haveeport that vw to buyback some diesel models in the u.s. to fix their emission systems, so keep an eye on that carmaker as well. much,thank you very looking at the stocks to watch for stop more on europe's response to the paris attacks. mr.'s are gathering in brussels to discuss counterterrorism measures. we are joined from the brussels bureau. ian, what is on today's agenda? ian: the interior ministers are just arriving in brussels now for this emergency meeting that was scheduled straight after the paris attacks last friday. they will mainly be talking about strengthening europe's external borders. the year are european travelers
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returning to europe from say the u.s., turkey, even london which is outside of the zone coming to paris or brussels. they will have to go through full security checks, passport swept, identity checked against the police database. it's about making europe much more of a fortress. it was thought some of the ringleaders of the paris attacks last week were able to come and go from syria to europe virtually undetected. anna: a lot of questions now being asked about how this was able to happen, how these people were able to be un-tracked essentially. we have done some research about europe without the agreement could look like. run us through the possibilities for stop is that really something people are talking about, and into the schengen arrangement? you asked that question three months ago, people would have said not at all.
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the idea of extreme right-wing politicians and may be some governments in the east and europe trying to cope with refugees. since the terrorist attacks, people are questioning, can we have a europe without borders, without passport checks between, say, france, germany, belgium, luxembourg, because people can just travel and not be detected. i think it is a long way. from abolishing it. it is a fundamental part of the european union. but there are certainly voices now putting it under pressure. anna: ian, thank you for joining us from brussels. marioriday morning, draghi gets another chance to signal his intentions for the european central bank's december meeting. he will deliver a keynote speech at the euro finance week in a few minutes time. asare focusing in on this there was an account of the ecb
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october meeting released yesterday that shows the governing council was more concerned about the deterioration in the inflation outlook then maybe draghi had a knowledge during his news conference. we are joined now by two people who have watched this closely, hans nichols and frank for, and jon ferro in london. hans, how likely that we get clues from mario draghi? they have given strong clues they will extend the duration in size of quantitative easing. this will not be a press conference, this will not be an opportunity to drill him on where he sees inflation going. it will be a speech, but i will be watching closely on what he says about paris. when jonathan was in frankfurt monday, that was maybe the first of three central bankers suggesting the attacks in paris ofld lead to a dilution
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confidence and extra uncertainty. that is what i will be listening for. later in the day, we get other comments, about inflation in the eurozone and in germany. we just heard the argument from hans-werner sinn that inflation in germany and industries like construction are seeing upward pressure from wages, which shows you do have inflation a coming through on the numbers, which gets us back to a debate that i know jonathan can adjudicate better than i can, wagner versus others. going to bring jonathan into our ridiculous conversation about opera. hans: i'm in the frankfurt opera house. anna: jon, you can contribute to that conversation or talk about the central bank. you talk to peter, who suggested he was worried about inflation. as paris intensified this, or were these concerns always there?
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hear ofexpecting to more about quantitative easing from the ecb anyway. consensus atthe the moment is the economy is in better shape than 6, 12 months ago. the consensus of the ecb on the governing council is the recovery is still fragile. the downside risks have increased and can the economy with an outright negative shock. the answer at the moment is no. the ecb is really concerned and inflation, theot headline numbers that come in over the next couple months, it is inflation expectations. they say the risk is increasing that those inflation expectations could become de-anchored. have flagged a lot about december. they have increased the individual share issue limits, a strong signal this ecb program, this asset purchase program will be extended. they have also pretty much told on the deposit2%
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rates, a big signal that will get cut. for me, going into december i would be asking the question what is the scope of disappointment at the ecb meeting on december 3, given the market expectations are already so high. anna: you were talking earlier at the opera house, he was saying that they welcome the core inflation and how that is going a little higher. ecb is he thinks the looking through that, he seemed skeptical about whether europe needs quantitative easing. is concern and there it will lead to more inflation and you will make some german industries less competitive as of the upward pressure from wages. that is the argument. we still need to get another round of numbers. i think the most important thing , a lot of times
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that has to do with imports and what the price of goods is elsewhere. what do you do with the price of oil? do you look through with this time in the course him since? those of the conversations. there are not just central bankers here, there are actual bankers. a couple weeks ago when we heard from the ecb there will be more encounters, it is events like this, lots of chance for conversation, but these will be in the diaries of ecb officials. we just heard some plates crash. i think that is my cue i need to stop talking and clean up and stop talking about opera or central-bank policy. anna? anna: good idea. we will be tuning in to see what mario draghi says. eurothe weakness in the clearly a focus for the european central bankers. --the summer we talked about and now we are seeing increasing numbers of bank's talking about that again. have the december 3 ecb
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meeting and the potential for deposit rate cut. a couple weeks later we have the federal reserve meeting and the prospect of a rate hike. i think that will be baked into risk.e, and that is the that is the market consensus. going into december is about how much more you get than just a rate cut from the ecb in a rate hike from the federal reserve. it is about the moves through 2016, how shallow the fed path will be through 2016 as far as rates are concerned and how much more aggressive the ecb will have to be as the year progresses. started in march. we are not even nine months into it and they already thinking about increasing them again. i wonder how quickly the conversation shifts going into 2016 about another work increase of -- about another increase of qe as the year progresses. and maybe even switching the asset class. with jon ferro joining us
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what to watch for with mario draghi, and hans nichols at the upper house in frankfurt to listen to what mario draghi says this morning. time to bring you where we are expecting equity markets to open this morning. we are expecting to see a move higher in the european stock markets, of about .2%, little changed really expected on the european equity markets this week. yesterday, minutes from the federal reserve's last meeting reassuring investors, perhaps looking ahead to what the ecb might do in december. "on the move" is next with the details of mario draghi and they will bring you his speech live. ♪
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jonathan: good morning. welcome to "on the move." a happy friday to you all. moments away from the start of european trading. that's get straight to your morning brief. december dilemma. well the president drop any hence? we hear from draghi this hour. raises the 3 billion euros. minister saysme they schengen will collapse. 20 seconds ahead of the open and
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ftse futures seconds away. but the futures higher. .- ftse futures higher let's get your markets open with nejra cehic. nejra: we so european stocks gain for a third day. it hit a three month high. the stoxx 600 is heading for a weekly game. let's take a look at european equities and if they managed to hold on to those gains today. the ftse 100 coming in higher, .2% up. tech 40 looking pretty flat. we are still -- cac 40 looking pretty flat. -- thetill waiting for u.s. economy could be strong enough to withstand a rate rise. 68% probability of a rate rise. dax


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