tv On the Move Bloomberg November 23, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EST
20 seconds away from the market open. 15 seconds away from the market opening here in europe. >> equity markets going to hold on to last week's rally? part wethe question have hawkish comments from the fed over the weekend. we of the euro zone pmi's to throw into the mix. let us take a look and see how the markets are opening. you are looking at the ftse 100 just off a little bit right now. there is the ftse 100, down to death of 1%. still waiting for the dax to open but it looks like these markets could be opening a little weaker. -- fromy from taking last week taking a breather. the big story is the continuing slump in commodities. let us take a look at some of the main movers. starting with commodity producer, it bhp billiton down 2.7%.
bloomberg has a default risk model indicating that this company's creditworthiness is the highest with a triple be scored. -- triple bletter scored. and iron orein oil has also been putting pressure on this company. glencore, this is the worst performance of this year on the ftse 100. it has lost two thirds of its value this year. it looks like it is trading lower today. the analysts are saying that it may be on the cusp of a rebound. down 5.2% at the moment. as for the astrazeneca, we have talked of the pfizer allergan deal which could happen as soon as today. withzeneca has agreed perrigo to do best u.s. rights. it will help it focus on its
three main there be areas and it's quarter guidance for this year has been maintained. i want to give you a check on the commodities. crude holding below $42 a barrel. gold up as well by six has a 1%. copper has dropped to a 2009 low. a little bit of a pullback. the back of the commodity mine this morning. french pmi, manufacturing is much better than last month. a slip on the services pmi coming in at 51.3. below the survey. that brings down the opposite to 51 point three and that is a mix on the survey of 52.5. a lot of numbers to dig through. we will do that again in 30 minutes when we get the german pmi. yvonne: asia stocks falling on a
inonger dollar and a drop commodity and japan on holiday. --not let these in this is indices confuse you. it is the miners and oil producers that have brought down the regional markets. bhp, the biggest drag in the region. scrapmpany will need to its policy to preserve its credit rating. the korean session led gains on the regional benchmark, up 7/10 of 1%. the shanghai session ended the day down success of 1%. the regulator has restarted ipo for 10 companies. five in shanghai and five in shenzhen. what will that mean for markets? the five-month freeze. every time a new batch of companies took orders the last year, we saw money market rates climb as investors hoarded cash
for their bit. -- last batch of 28 ideas sign of confidence from chinese official that the market can stand on its own. that is what is happening in markets across the world. here's what is happening in today's program. commodities in a tailspin. copper heads a new six-year low. the dollar has back to a 2015 high. , 14 years after the biggest default the world had ever seen, the country focuses -- elects a probe is in -- pro business- pro presidents. -- president. the commodities slumped continues. the dollar gains pushing back
towards a 2015 high court for in stuartus bring wallace. ceo and founding partner of asset management. and timothy ash. great to have you with us. every morning, i get the bloomberg terminal at 5:00 a.m. and i look at copper, new lows, oil trading at $40 a barrel. >> it is very hard to tell right now. reality. they are looking at china, and the rest of the world economy. with the exception of the u.s. they are looking at supply which is coming on the tail end of a 10 year old. billions and billions were spent on mines, oil wells, and infrastructure. a lot of supply. some worries about demand. the price -- is it logical?
i don't know. jonathon: is that where you would expect to see --what the dollar is doing now? >> i think it is being driven by quantitative easing primarily in europe and in japan as well. we have seen the impact of the dollar in earnings numbers throughout q3 as well. the commodity sector is being hit hard particularly by global growth concerns. going to talkre about emerging markets later in the program. given what we're seeing in the middle east, are you surprised at how insulated the oil market is? expectations of u.s. policies as well, the loose policies have been a big driver of oil as well. the supply affect has come.
when of the big factors has been the saudi policy. the longer term battle and struggle between saudi arabia and iran. saudi is determined to keep the oil price low. jonathon: for the next chapter. glencore down by 4.5%. the strategy remains unchanged. protect the dividend. keep volume up. no matter what the price of iron ore actually is. how much longer can they maintain that strategy? those that have been around long enough do not think that the price of iron ore is unreasonable. the short-term memories, and they are looking at $100 a time. big players do have much lower cost production than the smaller competitors. they could have much better balance sheets.
remember that in this environment, not everyone is doing badly. this morning, we looked at mexico's oil heads. .- hedge $6 billion this year from that program. it is not gloom for everyone. jonathon: when do you step back and? --back in? global economy starts to increase and we get rate hikes like we are starting. you have to remember that a lot of investors both institutionalized and private -- the market has been cautious, events into her as last week were sad but have not had the impact on financial markets that many expected. markets trading up slowly but surely. jonathon: gentlemen, great to have you with us this might.
this is on the move. the ftse 100 is down by 7/10 of 1% winter has arrived. it is cold in the city this point. a lot of top stories to get to. secret weg with my had an announcement from the earlier today. first-line revenue of two point 6%. the company also sees a good full-year performance. the intra-dividend was a miss compared to estimate. perhaps that is why we are seeing the stock move leader -- lower today. bhp billiton. the commodities slumped. a proper drop to a 2000 -- copper dropping to a 2009 low. there are questions over whether the litan will -- bhp billiton will have to drop its dividend. credit worthiness questions. as well as the brazil disaster adding pressure to the profits. glencore. a problem because
of the commodities slumped. it lost two thirds of its value. it is down again today. some analysts saying it could be on the cusp of a rebound. jonathon: to brussels now. the belgian capital on chechen. the belgian police have arrested 16 people. there is an imminent attack on brussels. the city remains on lockdown for the third straight day. schools, shops, and the metro network are shut down. the perceived threats were discussed in a press conference yesterday. >> i confirm as i was able to indicate yesterday that we are fearing a similar attack to that which took place in paris involving several individuals who might launch an attack on several different locations at the same time. we have information that leads us to believe that the potential targets are places which are regularly frequented. we are thinking for example of
commercial centers or street or another example might be the public transportation system. jones, give me the latest. the trip into work was different. i usually take the subway but since it has been shut down for three days, i had to drive today the atmosphere out there is very quiet. it is a little beer he. you expect a lot of people to be out and about. weekendct that over the when they for shut down the metro and the shops very and venues in downtown brussels. over the weekend, it was extremely quiet. it is usually very vibrant. you almost had more soldiers and police on the streets in downtown brussels saturday night and sunday night and you had actual locals eating and drinking.
last night, sending it, they had raised in downtown brussels. they widened the scope of the search for suspects related to the terror attacks in paris. districts in brussels. the main suspect was not apprehended. he is still at large. that is a big reason why the terror alert continues as it is and why brussels remains on lockdown today. jonathon: it was a big event. they are hosting a special meeting of european finance ministers later. are we expecting that to go ahead? yes, a said last night that they are going ahead with this meeting. europe area finance ministers. he will be discussing something very relevant to the terror threats here. france and other countries have boosted spending, belgium one of them on security in the wake of
the attacks in france and that will have an impact on the budget. with the strict budget rules that we have in the europe area, how will that fly? will they be able to go ahead? the answer seems to be that the eu officials, the commission this ist juncker says an exception and we have to do what it takes to maintain security and we will figure out budget stuff later. the flexibility is there. jonathon: thank you very much for joining us. stay with us. the markets are responding sensitively towards this. if it isdecide sensible or not. any kind of fallout on the bond market will not happen if the
ecb has a foot on the pedal on qe. as it is, it has very little impact on the financial markets. it may have an impact on gdp rose where the strength or weakness of the euro and the quantitative easing of the system. interest rates remain low. quantitative easing is firmly on the table based on draghi's comments on friday. jonathon: two big developments. one of them is vladimir putin coming in from the cold. in your world, has that story progressed? >> the market, investors seem to think that with russia reaching out to the west over isis -- it is increasing the prospect of sanctions being moderated. it does not matter what i think. it matters what the investors think.
they are assuming that. russian assets have done relatively well compared to other emerging assets. jonathon: would you put any of the assets given that development? >> we would slowly start to look at russia. oil prices are low. the political environment is slowly changing. there never is a good time to go in one market has fallen as much as they have in russia but it does not look like a bad time to get exposure. in the next 12 months. jonathon: i always seem to hear the same thing about russia and russian assets. low. am i getting it all wrong? we have been come with russia in this geopolitical place. long-term, because i think nothing has fundamentally changed in the russian long-term
story. nothing really happening there at all. macro management has been good but they have been buying time because they have been in a long-term geopolitical fight with the west over ukraine. , i thinkn intervention is over ukraine. influence discussions with the west. were sixck to where we month ago with the ukraine. tactically yes, i can see why people would be high on russia. lack of supply. sanctions have been great for limiting supply of new issuance which creates scarcity. -- ifon: emerging markets you view them through the prism of the world. russia and the prospects of sanctions being eventually turkeycap you also see
and increased pessimism around turkey. domestic political story is driving athens right now. does that continue? >> turkey lives in a difficult neighborhood. it always has. it always faces a significant security threat. investors have been -- for example, russian jets bombing along the border as threatening to turkey. peopleually, i think understand that both russia and turkey do not want a conflict over. . in turkey, the story is about domestic politics. we had elections on november the fifth. big surprise, the outcome. for turkey, the key driver is this week, the formation of the capital. will it be a reform oriented cabinet? if they get a decent
administration in place, they will be well. if they don't, i think they could do very poorly. they are very binary at the money. -- at the moment. jonathon: we will be talking about a reform oriented government. the new president promises in argentina. he is way to live currency controls and export taxes and bring the country in from the cold. ♪
jonathon: good morning and welcome back to on the move. joining you live from the city of london. is to be the next president of argentina after winning the general election. he will take office on december 10. setting the stage for economic theralization and heralding end of punitive export taxes and currency controls. investors hope. tim, you and i have had conversations. the bottom up work becomes more significant now. >> people have ignored that in the last few years.
all emerging markets and high commodity prices. as those retreat, the country stories are much more important. the focus on the fragile five. the argentina story is the headlines today. evidence now that some of those country stories are beginning to to turn -- beginning to term. india has been an improved a story for the last year or so. argentina has the prospect of improvement. turkey, again surprise election results, hope of a reformed administration coming back in in turkey. turkey could be a very good story this year. south africa, we had a surprise rate hike last week. it has been construed very positively by the government. the russia structural fred story. in the end, the market seems to think the sanctions will be moderated and reduced. there are some signs of hope i think for emerging markets. i would say that em effects are
very cheap. a lot of these countries are getting to double-digit rates so that local markets could look very attractive. jonathon: the amount of risk premium in the fx market. fx?he market opportunity in >> markets in emerging markets are down by about 10%. we have had massive currency move and massive levels of volatility. look at china. haveeally do have to appetite for risk when you're getting exposure to the emerging markets. the debt market -- you are exposed to masses of currency moves. jonathon: i keep hearing about reform oriented economies. gentlemen, stay with us. pmi numbers out of germany.
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jonathon: good morning and welcome to on the move. winter has officially arrived. ftsenutes until -- the down by 910 to 1%. the commodity route to continues. as far as dated is concerned, data out of germany right now, the pmi, the number out of november. manufacturing coming out at 52.6. services coming in at 55.6. the survey 54.4. the composite coming in a 54.9. the survey at 54.0.
man that knows a something about german data. he is in berlin for us. if only the germans had a say on qe. february that up in are march when they signaled it would be fine with it. these numbers are better than expected on manufacturing and survey. the composite comes in slightly better. we will see in 30 minutes if that will be able to live -- lift the eurozone numbers a little and help it meet its numbers. one quick note, about 30 minutes ago, we got the french numbers. they disappointed. manufacturing came in worse than expected. that right in line, 50.8. on services and the composite from we saw and almost 1.2% drop. services, some of that could be terrorism related where we are seeing an immediate impact on the tourism industry.
the french numbers are not great. german numbers better than expectations. we get the whole eurozone in about 29 minutes. i know you are excited. jonathon: i am always excited. those deciding, whether we do more qe -- how had the political argument developed? you were there on friday. is there any pushback and germany at all and if there is, will that resistance move the ecb ? s: the german position. do not talk down the data. in some ways, that was implied criticism of draghi. draghi is insisting that the numbers are not that bad.
also tomorrow, we will get the final reading of german gdp. with that, you get the breakdown. the germans are slower at breaking down where their growth is. we will see how strong consumer spending is with the overall number of gdp in the order zero point 8%. i'm looking to see if the german consumer is driving some of the growth here. yes, you will not have the same conversation from the last 10 months. how strongly are they opposed to quantitative easing and if any of their resistors can trip the circuit. it appears as though they cannot. jonathon: i will put these questions to the investors on gentlemen, it -- is hard to spot the difference in draghi. last year, he said almost exactly the same thing that he said on friday. we will do what it takes to get inflation back towards target.
it is a sign he is going to do more. it is also a sign that it has not worked in the last 12 months. >> it is a gradual approach with the ecb. they will spend qe. this will also have an impact on the euro. 20% undervalued. this all ties in with the credibility that central banks have which is quite poor at the moment. they talk but nothing really happens and we do not see the changes we expect to see. this is a european approach. jonathon: i mentioned emerging markets to the governor in australia a month ago. he said it was not turkey coming he said hehina -- was not worried about the emerging markets at all. --willg markets europe they continue to perform well? belgium hast in
been whether it changes consumer patterns and behavior in europe. the gradual recovery that we as seen in western europe. are --g european markets their balance sheet. they have the big balances in order. they are showing account deficits. good shape pretty and the growth has been quite good. the countries have been very durable including poland and romania. terrorism,hreat from what is clear is that the ecb will not do anything radical. -- assube very a shirt, maneuvers inarp terms of financial policy. very cautious. in the end, we are still constructing an emerging europe. -- u.s.: the euros
versus germany. oversoldhow the euro and how it is rebounding? do you think that will happen? >> we think fair value for the euro-dollar is 129. that is the direction we should be moving towards. we did not see a move towards parity. 1.07e hovering around the level now. it is hard to see the euro weakened much further. the qe has already priced in. we have a weak euro. this is very good for the european economy as a general rule because they can do much cheaper prices on exports now. the euro is nice and weak. a lot of quantitative easing.
despite the terrorist attack that we have seen. jonathon: question on at -- assets. first quarter, the big --son we had an equity boom if you think it is going to be the other way around and we get the qe and the euro strengthens going into view one next year, what does that mean for stocks in europe? >> it could have an impact on earnings. it will have an impact on any corporation that has significant exposure to mainland europe including american companies and emerging-market companies as well. if the move is gradual, you will see firms managing that change and it should not have detrimental effects that you are suggesting. years, wethe last 4-5 have been talking about the fed. what is happening in europe and japan and more easing from china
know you like to bottom up, but from the top down? >> turkey is a country i know well. there is a lot of focus on fed tightening. , ifountries like turkey they have a good reform story, a stand-alone story. i think they will be durable. in december is not seismic for emerging markets. i think they could be pretty durable if they have those performance stories themselves. we should not be just focusing on the fed. jonathon: and on the ecb. draghi willubt that say increasing downsize risks from abroad -- do you scratch your head when he says that? do you think that the risks are decreasing? >> that is the bottom line, the
u.s. economy is doing better. that is good for the global economy. one of the original questions -- to me, said loosening qe was bad for a lot of emergency market the they did not do structural reforms they should have done. the thought they were -- reason they were getting low financing was related to their own story. it was not. it was due to a a lot of andidity being pumped in high commodity prices. i think they got complacent and fed tightening or the prospect of it should force policymakers to go back to basics in emerging markets. structural reform making their own economies competitive. hopefully, we will see that in the next few months. jonathon: final question. as you look at the world right now, goldman sachs calling for a retreat from the emerging markets and going into your -- the data is holding up. outside of the narrow focus on
inflation and inflation expert -- expectations, pmi is doing all right. putting yourou be money? >> global equities without a doubt. investors both institutional and private are very cautious. the best place to put money is global equities. thank you very much for joining us this point. up next, new rules for china. they have raised margin requirements. and they have lifted the five-month freeze on ipos. ♪
jonathon: good morning. live from the city of london. this is on the move. on the screen, pictures from paris as the french president meets with david cameron, speaking about fighting isis. the french president says the french economy -- the french government is going to reinforce cooperation on intelligence. that is the top line from that meeting with prime minister cameron. i will bring you the headlines. the top stories. downels remains on lock today as authorities keep the city on maximum terror alert. schools, shops, and the metro is closed.
the issue of terrorism will dominate an area meeting of finance ministers. deutsche bank plans to cut a thousand jobs in london next year according to a newspaper report. the uk's sunday times says the layoffs are part of an overhaul and announced last month it is going to shrink its work is by 9000 over the next three years. be the next set to president of argentina after ms. -- after winning the general election. setting the stage for economic liberalization and harold the end of punitive taxes and currency controls. over in china, chinese securities regulator has given the greenlight light to 10 ipos following a five-month freeze on new share sales. richard frost joins us now from hong kong with more very the two
stories, the margin requirements, that is the story that has been activated today. the ipos, the huge pipeline that we are waiting to unload. investors will deftly be looking forward to the resumption of ipos. that is interesting. it split into two. there were 28 companies given approval before they suspended ipos in june. they will operate under the old system where you need to put the money upfront. under the new system, that will take place after that, you do not need that. what people are saying is that they are trying to pull their money to get into the new one. it is not as low. it will be the people's ipo where everyone can try and take profitable way.
come 680the freeze percent. if you can get your money into that, you can't. some expected to be liquidity freeze at the 28 ipos rolled through. we have not seen much of an impact on the market yet but that is because they have not started taking orders. coming intoremember june this year and the ipos in the record volume of ipos we were expecting that month was a signal for the shanghai composite. if those ipos come back online, is that a concern for investors? not that i see. this is obviously a part of regulators trying to restore normality in the market. to have no ipos is a slightly broken system.
they did that as a major support to try to rescue the market. this shows partly that they are confident a market can stand on .ts own the liquidity will initially be locked up. doubling the margin requirements. --s is another step of them they want a slow bull market. the market was anything but that earlier this year. now,they are trying to do and the move that a lot of international praise, is that they are trying to stop that speculation, that speculative fervor with getting too extreme into the market. risksalked about systemic and that is why they are doing this. we have not seen too much reaction in the market. what we have seen is volatility. a sense that things are starting to become more normal if not
totally normal. jonathon: the new normal. maybe. richard frost, from hong kong. i mentioned that we are getting some live pictures from david cameron and the french president joints press conference. let us listen in. >> in particular, we must do more to tackle the threat of returning foreign fighters. this requires a pan european effort. we need a stronger eu border. screening, systematic security checks, and greater sharing of data amongst member states. we must without delay agreed to the rules that will enable us to share passenger name record it is frankly ridiculous we can get more information from countries outside of the eu the weekend from each other. we'll select a crackdown on the trade of illegal firearms. i welcome the strong backing of now wejustice system but
have the turn those words and actions. we simply cannot afford to wait any longer. while we do more to protect ourselves here in europe, we must also do more to defeat isil and their heartlands, syria, and iraq. the u.k. is already playing its part. ,triking targets in iraq providing intelligence over the skies on syria come and helping our allies with air to air refueling. on friday, the united nations unanimously backed action against isil in syria and iraq. later this week, i will set out in parliament our comprehensive strategy for tackling isil. i firmly support the action that the french president has taken to strike isil in syria and it is my firm conviction that britain should do so also. of course, that will be a decision for parliament to make. today, i have offered president -- ands hollande
additional assistance with air to air refueling. we also discussed ongoing efforts to secure a political solution to the conflict in syria. we welcome the recent talks in vienna and will do what we can to sustain this momentum and to bring all parties to the table so they can agree on the way forward to end the bloodshed and put syria on the path to more democratic, inclusive, and a stable future. talk have been import and this many. later this week, the french president will talk with president obama, president putin, and chancellor merkel. it is clear that the world is coming together to tackle this evil threat. that was clear on friday night when one week after the brutal terrorist murdered people in paris and thought to divide us, the world united in new york. we have shown our firm resolve and together we will destroy this evil threat. thank you.
that was prime minister david cameron meeting with french president francois hollande discussing the reaction and the potential as collation of its intervention within syria and what needs to happen politically while those strikes take place. much more on that route the morning right here on bloomberg and day ahead as far as the economic data is concerned. we have had french and german pmi. eurozone pmi numbers coming in u.k.00 a.m. you kite -- time. -- in0 p.m. come existing the u.s. let us bring in richard jones. and manus cranny. richard jones, great to have you with us this point. the data that has come in from we were just looking at the german pmi as a single data point.
manus wass what talking about last week. i do not think the germans are in charge anymore of what decisions get made on broad monetary policy in the eurozone. the pmi eyes are always interesting to follow. those inflation numbers that mr. draghi himself -- those are for most on his mind. what we have at the moment is a narrow focus on inflation. commodity stories that play into that. at the turn of the year, we will have a different actor. an uptick in headline inflation. does it move the dial? >> i wonder how bigfx will be. i am not an oil expert. i am not a technical analyst. every time i see wti get down to 40 and tried to balance, it does not bounce very much. it strikes me that we have all
fields want to go lower and wga -- wti could trade lower. jonathon: manus cranny joins us on set. you have to take responsibility for your own bad calls and decisions. venezuela, they see oil down at $20 a barrel. manus what you have: there is the never ending decline, copper below 4500. whatever word you want to use, there is no doubt about it at this cycle does not look -- i thought your panel was fascinating. one guest said it was time to buy and step down. is that how you make money? trying to be contrary.
no doubt about it. there is a series of options. the euro is under pressure and there is a global, global terror down -- closedt down an entire city for three days. this is where you need to begin to see the ramifications of what terror is. that is one city in europe. ownce has undergone its struggles in the past days. even though our leaders say this will not be the normal state of two cities, completely and utterly socially annihilated in terms of -- >> in terms of brussels, no schools, no shops, no transport. jonathon: the market -- it's reaction from it is stable and
sensible. i am looking at belgian yields. what we have and i said it before, a bond market insulated by qe. easternle middle tensions are heightened. the $20 call that venezuela was talking about. what you have directed differentiate with the commodity markets. come we have not seen that just yet because the call at goldman sachs is not a move towards 20. and if we reach storage capacity, you have to come down to the cost of production which is about $20 a barrel. towards keep heading 40. will it be low for much longer? nny: it depends on what the saudis will do. the challenge for saudi is
maintained with the peg against the dollar. they have seen the market betting against that pay remaining. head --r choice -- that that peg remaining. one is palatable and one has devastating economic effects. jonathon: big story for 2016. and francine la plata coming in after this break. top of the hour come eurozone afterd services coming in the break. we will bring you those numbers. i am on twitter. the miners pulling back at the commodity route continues. the dollar is heading back to a
francine: brussels lockdown. the belgium capital remains assed for the third day authorities warn of an imminent attack. manus: commodities washout. the dollar pushed higher. shares and minors are sinking toward 2008 lows. francine: argentina. the country lx -- the -- the country lx -- set to make a record-breaking wanted to $50 billion deal. the announcement affected as early as today. --