>> global leaders head to paris for climate talks, but terror looms large over france's biggest diplomatic gathering in more than half a century. the eu gets out the checkbook to stem the flow of refugees as russia slaps on fresh sanctions. the war in syria puts turkey centerstage. the imf decides whether to include the euro in its stitches currency basket -- prestigious currency basket. welcome to countdown, i am guy johnson.
it is a really busy week. we have global leaders gathering in paris today and we will bring you the live shot of those arrivals and then we get onto the ecb. a bloomberg survey suggests that we are going to see a deposit rate cut. how big will it be? that is the real question. mosul expected to go from 0.2 to 0.3. it to goeople expect from 0.2 to 0.3. remember that janet yellen speaks thursday and we get payroll on friday. a really big week in front of us. how do we set it up. thate we talk about all of , let's get you the bloomberg first word news. , the leaderse eu have agreed on a deal to help
stem the refugee falls through the nation. some people get a package of 3 billion euros in assistance for bolstering border controls. this as the eu is dangling closer that could bring for potential membership. meanwhile, the russian president vladimir putin has announced measures against turkey. russia has suspended their tours, banned the hiring of turkish nationals, and will block the sale of some turkish goods. the turkish prime ministers saying his priority is to prevent similar incidents. the chairman and ceo has stepped down after he was bail -- jailed indefinitely. the brazilian billionaire was arrested in the world's largest corruption probe. he has denied the accusations laid against him. >> the u.n. climate change
conference kicks off in paris. the french president francois hollande will make the opening speeches. president obama is scheduled to have dinner with him tonight and congress aims to reach an +++ warming. you are up with all that you need to know except for one thing, how is asia trading? reporter: good morning to you. asia is not doing too well. it looks like we are where we are on track for another monthly loss here in asia.
the regional benchmark index on track for its sixth loss. the shanghai composite has been in focus having that big fall on friday, down by 5% into brokerage stocks. it has been falling quite significantly, at one point down to 3%. it is clawing back a little in the last hour of trade. still two hours of trade there to go, that hangs in positive territory, albeit flat. elsewhere in the region, you can see there was quite a selloff. nikkei 225 finishing down by 0.7%. it was a little bit positive in the sense that we saw a retail sells beat estimates. we saw industrial output rising 1.4% from september that in australia, mining was hit hard today and new zealand closed flat. if we look at some of the stocks we have been watching, these brokerage firms were where we saw the big weakness friday and we're still seeing them today. falling by almost 10% and currently down 10%.
there is also alleged breaches of rules and shortselling contracts. this is how they are faring on the share market. australia, shares falling to august 20 -- august 2005 lows today, saying they have not yet received a formal morning. the electronics retailer having the biggest fall on record on a profit warning. we have sustained a pickup that was hit hard last week. it's generally handing over the baton in terms of the week start in europe. guy: monday morning, week start, thanks for that. i kid. let's get back to the eu agreement reached over the weekend. the european council
president setting out the terms of the eu turkey deal. x our agreement sets out a clear plan for the time that reestablishment of here. we will also step up our assistance to syrian refugees, in turkey, to a new refugee facility of 3 billion euros. guy: we are joined now by russell hayden and ryan chilcote is here as well. significantith the -- significance of this deal with turkey. it seems to come into being. this will be a reasonably straightforward meeting. >> it is quite unprecedented.
>> the refugee crisis is so threatening to the travel and other things that we have really push the leaders to do something. put 3 billion euros on the table to turkey and they promise to accelerate and push forward the negotiations on turkey into the eu. they're supposed open another chapter in december and then push forward with more things next year. >> what do we hear about -- in reality, what do we really hear about eu membership? this has been stalled for quite a long time and they will open some critical chapters but how much further forward does this take us. >> it is a long process, but ince it has been stalled their opening new chapters, in
december little open the chapter on economy and monetary policy. and they could even open the one on justice which would be a huge step for turkey given there has been so much criticism by the eu brother crackdown on media freedoms and human rights records in general. they are making positive noises for turkey, but they need turkey. linchpin in the fight against the immigration crisis. eu's kind of in a box and they need to get turkey on board . guy: let's talk to ryan. by thections posted russians, what are we talking ?bout the entirely new bit is that according to the russian president decree that came out saturday night, the effective
been on the hiring -- effective ban on the hiring of turkish nationals. the ban of these a-free trouble for turks coming -- of visa-free travel for turks coming into the country, and the ban for turks going into the country was made more formal. hadcharter airlines that been taken russians to turkey and had effectively been self sanctioning ever since that russian jet was downed, in anticipation of a ban, they now have an official ban in place. there will be no russian charter flights to turkey until they change their policy. that on top of the food ban. another effective food ban. all turkish produce that has been coming in has been effectively held at the border.
we have a little bit more information. look at a lot more on which foods are going to be banned. they said they will be analogous to the shenzhen's russia imposed . some of that coming from turkey will be taken off the shelves. it will come from somewhere else. that might lead to a little bit of inflationary pressure and will certainly lead to less choice in russia's diet. guy: the world and everyone else is coming to paris this week, is
there any chance this could sit down, what are the chances of reconciliation? guy: -- >> the chances are very difficult. you know that they are both hard minded men. president erdogan has requested a meeting with president putin, the russian president spokesman confirmed that over the weekend but said that russia had not responded to it yet. the russians have not come up with her official list of sanctions yet. one wonders if they are going to wait and see if that meeting transpires and if they will get that apology they expect from the turks. i think that most people agree that the chances for reconciliation between the leaders of turkey and russia at this point are not high. guy: i would love to be in that meeting. thank you very much indeed, brian chilcott covering the russian angle.
good bring in charlie, morning. >> a huge week. guy: you have the front and dominated by the leaders coming together. yellen speaking thursday and payroll friday. very long-terme which make an immediate economic impact. crossoverdo get some as he pointed out. things like china into the market. these things are very important from a long-term point of view, but in the short term will not have a massive economic impact. policy, the monetary with the ecb there is a lot to debate there and then you are adding to the fed. the financial market is a big deal. the fact that we have two of the
world's largest central banks in opposite directions, at the moment everyone has fingers crossed that it will be ok. but the potential for an upset or volatility along the way is pretty high. guy: what do you expect? 10 basis points? what do you have to do to outperform draghi? >> i am a 2020 men. they can play around with that and maybe they don't do more in terms of extending the duration they will do it for. but the key is the rate cut. are,ore aggressive they the more it is a declaration of intent. guy: why do they have to do this? the eurozone looks like it is performing a little bit better. why now? they painted themselves into a
corner. you wonder if they have the economic data to justify it. reporter: -- guest: absolutely right. if you look at the global disinflation or he forces, a lot of the big picture stuff hitting this three-your target of close to 2%, they are all still headed the wrong way. china.act of things like the super cycle pushing the effect on to the eurozone makes it hard to hit that target. the way i think they are thinking is if it is really successful, we will just go sooner. guy: go sooner now and worry about it later. is shock and enough to shock and awe enough? emphasizinge keep
the swiss example. they went to very negative rates. they used to be worried about causing a distorted effect such as people holding cash. , as you say some of the data is improving. if they went to -75, everyone would say, what is going on? guy: a very fine line. we will carry on talking about this throughout the program. as we have indicated, we have the cup 21 stock coming up. thursday, the european central bank has a rate decision and press conference. markets betting on more stimulus from president mario draghi. thursday, we also get fed chair janet yellen speaking. people will be really paying attention to what she has to say. ♪
jpmorgan will leave its otis pool roughly unchanged. this according to people with knowledge of the matter will stop they bucked the trend with european competitors like much a bank which are preparing to cut pay out. chinese stocks extended their biggest rout in three months. amid concerns that investigation will hurt profits. they say it is being looked into for alleged margin financing allegations. that is the flash. guy: more than 140 world leaders gathered in paris for the u.s. summit on climate change. the aim is to agree on cuts for greenhouse gas emissions, but after a recent wave of terror attacks including the one we saw
in the french capital, geopolitics will take center stage. caroline hyde is at center stage. will climate or terrorism and up the main focus? caroline: i think front and center will be diplomacy, security, the concern about terrorism. we have history in the making. gathering ofiggest world leaders ever. just -- in just over an hour local time. francois hollande has been speaking with the leaders of canada yesterday and terrorism is high on the agenda. chinese nationals had been caught up in a wave of terrorism. we seen in egypt and molly and most notably here in paris. this gathering of world leaders
in the country in a state of national emergency. you also have plenty of diplomacy going on and put in angelasia will meet with merkel and netanyahu of israel and erdogan of turkey asking to meet with putin while he is here. the key is to plummet see and security. i've never seen so many people miss early at a conference. balls 50,000 people coming so no wonder there is a clampdown on public demonstrations. detained than 200 were after we saw violence iraq yesterday. down, roads and four police throughout the night in my small hotel 10 minutes away. four police stations
open 24 hours new the hotels. 15,000 police and those looking at the borders and custom offices as well. city really aware of the threat. but maybe this will help push a climate change deal because obama and many leaders saying they want something positive to come out of the gathering of world leaders. treaty is the not question. let's talk about climate goals and what we can get. what is at stake? stake is what is at the most significant agreement since the kyoto agreement. the copenhagen talks with the u.n. on climate change that ended in disarray and acrimony between the developed world and the developing world. is in theirhe wind sales when it comes to the developing world clamping down
on climate change as well as the developed nation. we now have the number one polluter in the world backing some sort of cut on emissions. day, are 4000 people per per day who die in china because of air pollution. can you even imagine that? the berkeley climate change consultancy saying they see 4000 people dying per day. is looking forna a deal. he wants to help lead the charge with india looking to ramp up and scale up their ultimate overall investment in solar. we are likely to start to see an agreement to increase the global temperatures to ensure we do not see sea levels rise. there are some key challenges. the wind in their sales with the cost of renewables coming down,
but there are three key things i want you to keep on your mind. what will the legal basis be of any agreement? you know the united states will not want any legally binding agreement because they do not know if they can get it to the senate, and had you wrap it up? how do you ensure they do not just become targets for 2020 but keep on improving? $100 billion have already been promised to give to the developing world to offset the economic damage of a move that renewables. $100 billion and emerging markets per year. three key things that need to be sorted out during this time. guy: the head of rates and multi-strategy income still with us. our that markets downplaying this too much? we have the fed and the ecb.
carney was out a few weeks ago saying you need to pay attention to this as well. guest: think he is time scouting. there is potentially a median shock to market. this is the long-term economic viability of the planet. ands years and decades difficult to get too excited about. guy: even in the long-term, it starts with the bigger institutions and they start thinking about it? guest: this is the kind of work we do it our institution, esg, environmental, social, and government work. how this will affect the global basis over the next 30 to 50 years. if it is left unconstrained, the
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let's get to our bloomberg first word news with ryan chilcote. reporter: turkey and eu leaders agreed on a deal to stem the flow of refugees to the nation. turkey will get a package of 3 billion euros in assistance. this as the eu is tangling rewards that could bring them closer to potential membership then at any point in the past decade. vladimir putin announced measures in the downing of that jet last week and they are ,uspended travel, halted tours
and the hiring of turkish nationals. the turkish prime minister criticized the sanction saying his priority is to defuse tensions and prevent similar incidents. the climate change conference kicks off in paris today for francois hollande and ban ki-moon who will make opening speeches. president obama is scheduled to have dinner tonight and the conference aims to reach an accord on reducing carbon emissions to curb global warming. french authorities detained more than 200 people after protests in favor of a global climate change accord. demonstrators threw projectiles at police amidst clouds of tear gas. france will on said they have nothing to do with the environment and were there justice to wrap trouble. david cameron has stepped up preparations for a vote in parliament against ash for stepping up airstrikes against the islamic state in syria. fors drawing up a motion
the vote is ministers appeal directly to lawmakers. corbynor leader jeremy opposes airstrikes saying attacking the islamic state in syria at least a civilian casualties and fuels extremism. guy: markets, a big week for markets. let's get the latest on jonathan ferro. jon: a massive day for markets at one point in china and another day of losses. and we turned that around and he raced all the losses on the day. theme, the big one is dollar. you know what fed chair janet yellen said, she slept it back down. that's with the market has been over the last month. the euro-dollar headed for its biggest monthly drop since march
and gold since 2013. and wti crude averaging under $50 a barrel all month for the fourth straight month. going into a will be about euro weakness. and the consensus is -.3% on the deposit rate. guy: i cannot wait for thursday, janet yellen and druggie. -- and draghi. in officials gathering washington today to talk what the story john and i have been talking about. the dollar and what happens next will be determined today. if approved, the u.n. would sit alongside the dollar, the euro, the pound, and the yen. asia watchersome have to say about the decision. >> asset managers and central
banks when i just go buy chinese renminbi because it is in the fdr basket. they're more concerned about what they could do if there is a problem, who would help them out? it will be evolutionary, not revolutionary. massive inflow of capital into china. they should see a ighting of -- re-we formal and informal holdings. >> conditionality -- there would be some implicit commitments that china made to continue in the sdr, but i don't think there would be explicit commitments. >> i don't think there will be an immediate pressure on the renminbi.
impact when irect be really felt until 12 months time. it is more the signaling of it. let's get more from bloomberg intelligence standing by in beijing. is it more political or economic? >> i think it is both. it comes at a critical moment for chinese leaders. 2016 has not been a very good year for beijing. getting into -- getting the yuan and to the fdr basket is an important win. itsymbolizes the world
changes the fundamental view on chinese economic prospect. basket is a win for chinese reformers. notably the advocate open to financial markets of the financial bank. reformers, tohen continue pushing forward that agenda. there will be market-based instruments. the capital flows. guy: what does it mean for the exchange rate? cynical view very in the market, the idea that having achieved their objective that beijing will now abruptly reversed direction. focus on supporting export competitiveness. although it is week,
it does show steins of -- show signs of stabilizing the competitive devaluation. secondly, maybe more importantly is we think the chinese leaders have enough of a shock in august and september. it triggered very sharp capital-like flows. for ank it is too early repeat performance. fdr change that? does one offset the other? to what extent? guest: i think that is right. this is an important symbolic win. they're getting the nod of approval from the international monetary fund and other central
bank governors. what it does not change is the substance of what is going on in the chinese economy. it doesn't change the fact they have a huge credit double to manage down. it doesn't change the fact they have enormous industrial capacity. it should increase foreign demand which will make all of these problems a little bit easier to solve, but not the fundamental picture on the growth outlook. these rates in multi-strategy fixed income, still with us. when the euro arrived before 2000, people are talking about the demise of the dollar. is this a turning point? >> no. that's the short answer. that over theght
next few years, we are moving toward a much more balanced world. we used to have a very the u.s.ric -- where went, the rest of the world followed but now you have information as evidenced by the fed moving in different directions. they are not that dissimilar in size moving in opposite directions. andoduce china into the mix you have a multipolar world. but everything will be about the cross currency. iss not what might economy doing but what my currency is going to do. massively, myes currency will go through the roof. policy up borrowing effects are other countries because the world will be so currency and interlinked. guy: do you think it will
happen? you saw it being built up in the euro and they come down again. maybe the same thing with the chinese as well. it has been hard to dislodge the dollar. guest: because most trade is denominated in it. fully you have a convertible economy with it -- guy: guest: that is a big if. it is, but if we get to that point, regionally why would you use the dollar? why would you not use the remedy? -- reminbi. it will take at least eight years for global reserves to be 10% reminbi. guy: but today is a significant step. guest: absolutely. it is all about the telegraphing of intent. -- this is one
step along that way. >> some have always been very clumsy. but i thinkumsy, most central bankers get it wrong at some point to some degree. guy: thank you very much, indeed. let's move on. has reported its busiest sales day ever. import.nother u.s. the big it -- busiest online shopping day of the year, here to discuss what it all means for the european retail landscape the analyst at bloomberg intelligence. not great on the high street but great online. walk us through why that was.
was it black friday? give us the backdrop. guest: there are a couple things because some people had act away from black friday a little bit. it isn't great to sell a lot of merchandise at a discount going into peak season. there is a degree to which the offers were a little bit more limited. equally, online is becoming an ever bigger part of everyone's shopping. online isly, to go just part of the way that people are going out and consuming. guy: it seems to be cyber friday rather than cyber monday. people are talking about sales running till christmas. that doesn't something great news. guest: the important thing about cyber monday is that november -- even back in the days of mail order, november was always a
bigger month for mail order than december because people just need to have the time to make sure it will arrive and maybe change it if need be. one of the other things we have seen this time is people have backed away from saying it will be delivered tomorrow, within 48 hours, people have extended the delivery times out to six or 10 days to make sure they are actually achieved. if you are going to wait 10 days, you need to order it now, rather than december 15 or something like that. guy: that changes the dynamic little bit. in the u.k., a different story from the rest of your continent. give us a bigger picture across europe. ?re these good news in as much guest: we have seen, france which has traditionally been
,uite a big shopping country they having braced these as well. there are a couple of things to look at. this weekend has traditionally been a kickoff weekend for retail shopping and the lead up to christmas. and the days when it had much more restricted shopping hours the first would've been this saturday. are,ple other things number one, this fear that if you do not participate, someone else will steal your sales. final point for the online only people is these days, the customer recruitment, you have people primed to shop and you want to try to recruit them and keep them locked in in the future. for online retailers, it is pretty expensive to do and in
some ways it is good. guy: do you think security comes into this? i am talking about people not going into the shops. guest: possibly. i think some of the shopping centers remained white busy. that people just decided it is easier to do it online. there were still a lot of people out and about. guy: thank you am a very much. -- thank you, very much. coming up next, the oil slide. we will talk the crude reality ahead of the opec meeting this week. ♪
and verye small authentic, but at the same time, i think we have done a lot to prepare for that. >> the governor of kenya's central-bank telling bloomberg that his nation is prepared for this highly anticipated fed decision in december. most people anticipating lift off before we actually see it. let's get you up to what you need to know. this is the business splash. reporter: the chairman of bpg has stepped down after he was jailed indefinitely. he stepped down under the country's largest connection -- irruption probe ever -- corruption probe ever. jpmorgan will leave the bonus pool unchanged from 2014 according to people with knowledge of the matter.
they bucked the trend with european competitors like deutsche bank. chinese stocks extended their biggest rout in three months. -- investigations by the regulators will hurt profits. they led declines as the company confirmed it was being looked into for alleged margin financing violations. that is the bloomberg business flash -- splash. back to you. 140 leaders gathering in paris for the cop21. caroline hyde is at the summit, they are holding it. let's talk about the challenge ahead. plenty of challenges, but the wind is in their sales
at the moment. this is all about reducing global emissions. we went to secure pictures rival of -- rise above two degrees if we are going to contain the word of the damage to the environment. with the had a bulk country giving us the pledges they will and at from 2020. or than 180 of that 199 countries gathering here have given up their pledges. i see as they are known. but is it enough? that will only stop temperatures rising by 2.7 degrees. had you keep on going and piling up the pressure to an sure that they don't rise above two degrees. we are seeing the cost of renewables falling and china finally getting behind this. developingy to see and developed nations backed by a global agreement to help slow climate change. ever gathering of
world leaders in one day. back to you. guy: we will renew those life pictures a little bit later. one of the things they have to consider as well is the significant decline we have seen in oil as of late. let's kick this around a little bit more. frank holmes is the cfo and ci you of global and -- and cio of global investors. where is the price of oil going? guest: it trades lower and the sum historic event takes place. when there is snow there that is the bottom. guy: how low does it go? goldman sachs awt i at 20 -- goldman sachs say wti at $20. guest: that is their opinion. you have to get china above the 50 mark but then oil prices
trade higher. thisve been watching global pmi. has been a in christ growth of europe, america and china. once we get that they all start to trade higher. guy: when will that be? there is an awful lot of oil kicking around. guest: as you highlight, the demand -- there isn't enough demand. that looks to be 12 to 18 month condition. he have to think most of the other hard commodities will improve. well in does russia do declining oil? guest: is tough for russia to do well. the ruble correlates with brent. just like the canadian dollar and norwegian krone. they all correlate with the price of oil.
part of a geopolitical's of putin going into syria has to do with oil, illegal oil being sold. i think that is trying to stop that supply. guy: how do i take it vantage of a lower oil price. guest: jets. guy: we are not talking sport. guest: we are not talking new york. i started my first one, ptf, this year in new york called jets, but the airline industry has been on a tear. the cash flow is 5 billion in the u.s. and is one quarter of that now. it is restructuring with falling oil prices significant to the growth. downsides?re the it is an incredibly cyclical business. if you pick the right point to get in, making money is incredibly difficult. how much of that is done in the trade? guest: a 10 you have major industry bankruptcy and
repositioning, that lasts -- anytime you have major industry bankruptcy and repositioning, that is one of the pitfalls of that trade. the people saying, don't pay me, pay me in stock. the average dividend went up 4% and the airline industry is up 98%. guy: that is one option. let's talk another. frank brings up the issue of the currencies heavily pegged toward the dollar. position yourself as you were for 2016, how would you be trading on those currencies? take the cad as an -linked, it is very oil and supposedly has a lot of trade with the u.s.. of monetarytons conditions in the u.s. and the oil price remains under pressure , it is a very negative condon -- combination next year, particularly if you continue to
a 12he revenue damaged on month to 18 month basis. i think, to me i am a commodities bear. guy: bloomberg businessweek. many bears. guest: this is the front page of time magazine. this is a bottom. it is not a major publication. guy: i would completely disagree with that statement. bloomberg businessweek is exactly a front and center read. but if we have not blossomed, what are the implications of monetary policy? you're looking at a euro that is betting that interest rates will rise, and hasn't so that is done. australiaas just in and i was shocked to see some of these australian gold stocks. the currency has fallen so much because they correlate the aussie dollar with iron ore.
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guy: 7:00 in london. live pictures from paris. francois hollande and ban ki-moon in greece, breeding the leaders as they arrive for the summit. the climate story is front and center here on bloomberg today. let's talk a little bit about paying the price. the eu will extend the flow of refugees as russia flags on sanctions. it is putting turkey face-to-face. the imf decides whether to include china's as a reserve currency. we have a look at what that
really means. good morning, everybody. 7:00 in london. an hour away from european equities and a lot of talk about. front and center is the arrival of these leaders in paris. hollandeon, francois have a lot of handshaking to do today as they greet the leaders from around the world. they are gathering in paris not just to talk about climate but also geopolitics. that story is very much front stage. putin and erduan -- will they talk today/ ? all of that is coming up a little bit later in the program. it is ecb week -- that is something we will be focusing on as well. as we continue to watch these arrivals. will draghi pull the trigger? what will he pull the trigger on?
what will he say about the european economy? ?ill he be expanding thei qe we have seen a shift from october to november as the ecb has talks dovish. -- talked dovish. will we see a deposit rate cut again? yellen speaks on thursday again and we have opec at the end of the week and payrolls as well. a massive week for the markets and an awful lot to think about. let's get you up to speed. let's get the bloomberg first word from ryan chilcote. ryan: the u.n. climate change conference has kicked off in paris today. president francois hollande and ban ki-moon will make the opening speeches. president obama is scheduled to have francois hollande tonight. they will reach an accord on carbon emissions to curb global warming. leaders agreed to help stem the refugee flow through the nation. they will get a package of 3
billion euros in assistance for keeping refugees in the country and bolstering its border control, this as the eu is dangling rewards that could bring the nation was it to potential membership than it has been in any point in the last decade. announcedutin measures against turkey in response to downing one of its jets. russia has suspended visa free nned the hiring of turkish nationals. the turkish prime minister criticized the movement. that is the bloomberg first word news, back to you. guy: thanks very much. ryan chilcote there. the european markets will open fairly flat. what is the legacy out of asia? let's find out, going to hong kong. juliette: good morning. forget christmas, it is beginning to look a lot like
august. the shanghai-- composite closing in positive territory. there is a lot of speculation that we have seen government intervention. there was a trillion dollar equity rout as a lot of stocks hit their 10% rally. there is a suggestion that there has been some intervention in hong kong, the rally of the shanghai composite filtering through with the hang seng up by one third of 1%. focus on those brokerage stocks is tha that wee hit hard amid allegations of misconduct. these markets were already closed before the outcome of the turnaround in shanghai, so we had a weaker day and a week month for asian equities. guy: juliette, thank you very
much. let's take you back to paris -- you are looking at live pictures coming from the french capital as more than 140 world leaders gather for the world summit on climate change. the aim is to agree on cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, that after a recent wave of terror attacks including the french capital, geopolitics will very much take center stage. caroline hyde is at the summit. caroline, which is the bigger issue -- climate change or what is happening with geopolitics? caroline: it's going to been that kidnapped. be the internet. neck in neck. it will be diplomacy today and the rest will be taken over by
climate change. we have a wave of attacks that occurred across the world when terrorism, most notably here at france. 130 dead, just over two weeks ago. of course we will be seeing along a hollande and xi jingpin, who he had yesterday for dinner, likely discussing the concern with the isis. obama meets tonight for dinner, and it will be on the agenda. we also know what is on the agenda with russia -- putin has said he will be speaking about the fight against the islamic state with the likes of netanyahu, also merkel of germany, perhaps even obama himself. ouan leadee her terdu
turkey with meetings? can we see a reduction in tension between turkey and russia? the security is front and center. as i walked into the u.s. headquarters here, it was as if i was boarding a plane -- you had to walk through security, bags checked. there are 40,000 delegates at this event. no wonder there is a ban on public demonstrations, no wonder more than 300 are currently being detained by the police after violence a ruptured yesterday. no wonder this is a city in lockdown. policee shut down, 2800 surrounding the area. 15,000 are covering the borders. this is really a country in the state of emergency, not a good time to have the biggest gathering of world leaders in one day ever. guy: it is meant to be a climate summit, so what are we going to
learn over the next two weeks? what are the goals? caroline: i think it will be interesting, because there is still concern of the threat of terrorism, the emphatic desire by the world leaders to see something positive come out of what has been so horrendous a time for paris, to be sure that we do get a paris agreement on climate change, on reducing the increase in global omissions. the wind is in their sales. most of the country is gathering, most of them have already given over their pledges. come 2020, what they wanted to reduce emissions. the intended nationally determined contributions. those contributions will live in global temperatures 5.7 degrees, but we need to degrees if you are going to us -- temperatures degrees, but you
need to degrees if you are going to make a difference. 4000 chinese die per day because of air pollution, phenomenal statistics, and beijing air pollution will be front and center. but there are some key concerns -- emerging markets are getting on board, but how will you distribute 100 billion per year to those developing nations to offset some of the economic damage by having to enforce renewable energy, by having to make climate change a key agenda for them? how do you distribute $100 billion? had you make this legally binding? what is the legal basis? climateto ensure these targets as they ratchet up through the years? guy: thank you very much indeed, caroline hyde at the summit, as we continue to watch arrivals. francois hollande was greeting
the delegates, 140 leaders gathering today. what does this mean for the markets? how should it be an investment story? guests.oined by two good morning to both of you. how do we look at this story and think investment? how do we turn what is a geopolitical showpiece into a market investable? >> the challenges that the world faces, what you have just seen, makes it so clear -- whether it be the challenge of climate change, the challenge of rising gap between wealth and poverty, and how that becomes investable story is to think about what it means. what we are seeing is that in the last decade there has been a real transformation in the way that business are expected to
relate to wider society. you look at the $59 trillion of institutional investment, which is signed up to the un-sponsored principles of responsible investment. guy: long-term, short-term -- short-term is easy, but long-term you need to include it. my question is how do i bridge that gap? witho i invest long-term central banks in wars and oil prices going up and down and commodity prices falling? >> if you look -- talking about central banks and imf -- look at their response to climate change. you can see that these long-term drivers will not go away. since there will be investing in this way in private markets for over a decade, what we are finding is that if we can identify some of these great trends -- take the aging
population and invest in businesses that are helping to solve those problems -- we find a real growth opportunity. patrick, how important is this? you manage a bunch of money. >> this isn't so important right now. it is a very long-term theme that will create significant headwinds. to centralluded banks -- that is what is on the markets right now, the ecb this week, those are the things that matter short-term. also since 2009, if you made the call, all you had to know is what central banks are doing. i think that continues to be the theme for 2016 as well. guy: you are shaking your head. >> i am shaking my head because huge amounts of money that go into the stock market is very long-term money. what you are talking about is a very short-term agenda. if you are managing institutional money, you need to
be thinking long-term. fossil fuelerally, assets could be worth nothing if what happens is anything close to what may happen in paris today. these investors are not looking at the longer-term. they may take short-term profits, but the pension funds are looking at the 10, 15, 30 year -- >> i don't think anything will come out of today that will make that possible. we are looking at an environment where you want to put tariffs on fossil fuels, make cleaner technology. right now with the oil prices where they are, they need carrots and sticks to create the greater technology, to get countries and businesses working that way. this say central banks are a he s&pterm phenomenon -- t has moved lockstep.
fors not irrelevant pensions -- it will push interest rates to zero, and i think that is missing the big picture. not saying it is irrelevant at all, i'm saying that short term is a massive challenge. we believe, and we see, that there is a real transformation in the paradigm of what business is about. areust allowing investors, accepting that businesses are just here to maximize financial return, looking at risk and return, i believe that we are all missing the larger picture, which is -- look at the millennial generation. they believe that business is here to serve society. they are the new entrepreneurs. they are the new shareholders. they will inherit $40 trillion of wealth in the next couple decades.
that you are giving is focused entirely upon financial risk and return metrics. the much bigger picture is how we are going to preserve the planet that we live in, and that is what pension funds and other long-term investors need to look to. guy: when i look at pension funds, one thing i am keen to invest in his technology. you look at what has been developed over the last 10, 20 bowl -- the.co dot-com -- it has transformed the stock market landscape. isn't that the way to invest? we can marry these two factors quite nicely. we can invest in returns, in risk, and we can invest in investment in technology. >> precisely right. if you look at what is needed, just the issue of climate change, what is needed is innovation, and innovation is typically driven by
entrepreneurship and by the markets, by businesses. if we are going to fall climate change, we need innovation and energy storage. -- let met a question be clear -- this is not a question of choosing impact of positive societal impact. we will create long-term returns for investors, just as you have seen the rise of the technology business. believe the next two decades will see verizon the impact business, which goes out to solve social and climate change troubles like this and will make enormous returns for shareholders. guy: does the low oil price, to patrick's point, slow that process down? the market incentive -- it is probably easy to think to invest in those kind of technologies is significantly lower. whatever it is, the impetus is in their.
why should it be investing in clean technology? an entrepreneurial perspective -- i talked about the millennial generation -- you will see a rise of entrepreneurs set out to solve those kinds of major societal challenges, and they are what represent the opportunity for investors that are out looking for that kind of business. so yes, currently oil prices are not helping, but many investors and people who set up their own businesses don't think in terms of what the stock market will do in the next three months. they think about the long-term challenges they want to solve. guy: thank you very much, indeed. michele and patrick. that sets out the debate. central banks very much front and center, the top 21 agreements, lack of agreements, treaty, lack of treaty -- very significant in terms of long-term story.
let's talk about something else dominating the agenda -- the eu-turkey agreement and the russian sanctions imposed on turkey. here is donald task setting out the terms of the eu deal. >> our agreement sets out a clear plan for the reestablishment from here. we will also step up our assistance to syrian refugees and turkey through a new refugee facility of 3 billion euros. guy: donald tusk. we will get much more of that conversation throughout the week as the story continues to ratchet up. let's talk a little bit about what's going on here. ryan is here in the studio. what was decided over the weekend sounds really significant. a huge amount of money and the potential acceleration of the deal between the eu and turkey. and i missing something here? ryan: no, it is a big
development. turkey has got a lot of leverage recently because of the refugee crisis. the eu really needs them to be on board in trying to stem this flow of migrants into the eu. donald tusk said that 1.5 million refugees have come into europe this year. it iss a huge number, and something that is really straining the resources of the eu, of all the governments across the eu. this is one of the main things that propelled this summit yesterday. the eu is really trying to get turkey on board, to deal with this situation. they have set up this 3 billion euros fund and it is supposed to go to help with the syrian refugees in turkey and keep that in turkey, deal with them in turkey, and not have them flow onto the eu. guy: ryan, let's bring you in and talk about the relationship between russia and turkey. difficult now, but talk us through the sanctions.
were debated to both sides? ryan: we effectively learned about three new sanctions. the first is an effective ban on the hiring of turkish nationals. there are about 200,000 turks in russia, and they will be banned from working. that will hit the industry in russia and a lot of builders in turkey. beyond that, we have confirmation of two things we have already heard -- that russia will sustain these of free travel, and russia is banning charter flights from russia, from moscow, and other russian cities to turkey. beenof those had already flagged and a lot of travel companies are engaged in self sanctioning, canceling their flights. this is a very serious trade spat and it is not over yet. we understand that the russian government later today intends to announce even more sanctions against turkey. guy: we will see how that meeting goes in paris, if it happens or if it doesn't.
plenty more coming up on that. jones hayden in ryan chilcote, thank you very much. let's get more with darren mcdowell. let's talk about what we have learned over the weekend. deteriorationt a between russia and turkey have we seen? >> it is pretty significant deterioration, given the scale of the crisis. this is one fighter shut it shot down, and things like this are not unknown, and usually you would see some sort of face-saving solution. however we are dealing with russia and turkey in systems where you have a very strong man centered rule, extremely proud people, you not only don't like to admit you're wrong but they can't -- it is being driven by the
domestic nature of each man's political regime. on an international level, turkey's allies that normally would push it into some sort of accommodation with moscow to work together on the situation, at the moment they need turkey quite a bit more to resolve issues such as the european refugee crisis. equally, russia has been violating the no airspace regularly for the past 18 months, since crimea corrupted. there is a certain sense of nato countries that this is something that russia should have expected, given the actual policies they have been pursuing. guy: the deal between the eu and turkey this weekend -- it seems to go to what you are saying. as much as there is this desire to keep turkey on board, we need turkey right now. fard they go too 3 billion and acceleration, big
chatter in the next 12 to 18 months -- that is quite a deal. >> it is very difficult to say how big a deal that will be until you see how far it will go. there are questions about turkey's human rights record, censorship, all sorts of issues domestic to turkey that have impeded its integration into the eu. but at the moment what you are seeing is that even as they are giving russia on the side for overarching resolutions, which turkey needs to be a part of as are seeing the rest of europe say -- we are not going to sell out turkey for the sake of saving face from moscow. but you'll have a larger problem down the road -- these are both important regional powers, both very invested on the ground. both have increasingly divergent goals for what they want to see
serial look like at the end of this whole process. you are already seeing a lot of conflicting agendas in the region, and ultimately the west said -- if it is a choice between turkey and russia, we will put up on ankara. guy: patrick, these are two that have been volatile. turkey, the geopolitical story, with happening with the fed, the deficit, russian sanctions, oil. do you just a away? >> that is what we have done. russia has been one of the better performers. get anery difficult to understanding of what will happen, the impact of sanctions. -- it is of oil basically a very high-risk strategy. that is what we have done. g guy: what will change that? >> it is very difficult with the regime in power right now. corporate governance is what you
dold want to see, but you not have that at all. can see governments putting your laws saying that dividends aren't allowable, things like that. until those risks are gone is difficult to make a case. guy: is that a glass half-full story? is there a story that will bring everyone together? >> it is difficult to see that right now. one of the main issues is assad. russia's intervention is based on propping up his regime. ands relying on the syrians there is rainy and allies to keep going, to create a high tempo airstrike. but that is reliant on other allies who also want to see themselves in power. turkey has also made deals with various rebel groups on the ground that russia considers terrorists.
and that is before you bring the europeans and americans. this is a very complex civil war, and as soon as you get the external powers with their of various agendas, you have another issue. on the rush aside, how much can they take? it has been contracting rapidly this year and the reserves are down. in addition to all the formal sanctions, there are also informal sanctions -- trade associations that don't buy from turkey. there is a lot of pressure from the top, and ultimately it is a question of -- sanctions are a double-edged sword. ultimately, russia's economy is in terrible shape right now, and it is a question of who holds up better. guy: and what happens to the oil price. thank you very much for your analysis. daragh mcdowell. patrick armstrong will stay with us. coming up, can china joined the
guy: welcome back. half an hour away from the cash equity open. we are 29 minutes from the open -- looks like it is going to be a fairly flat open for the european equities. let's show you what is happening in terms of the fair value calculation. it went down by less than 1/10 of 1% -- of the factors in all of this is a huge rebound out today on the shanghai market -- down 3% and finishing flat with a bit of a turnaround -- people are talking intervention. let's bring you up to speed with what you need to know. here's ryan chilcote. ryan: the climate change
conference has kicked off in paris. francois hollande and ban ki-moon will make the opening speeches. president obama will have dinner with hollande tonight. the french foreign minister said there are 50 points of contention amongst leaders. turkey and eu leaders agreed to help stem the refugee flow through the nation. a package of 3 billion euros in assistance for keeping refugees in the country and bolstering border patrol, this as the eu is dangling rewards that could bring the nation closure to potential member -- the nation closer to potential membership. vladimir putin announced measures against turkey in response to the downing of one of its jets last week. they have suspended visa fee travel and banned the hiring of turkish nationals. the turkish prime minister criticized the sanctions, saying his priority is to defuse
tensions. the chairman and ceo of btg has stepped down after he was jailed definitely. wednesday in the largest corruption probe ever. accusationsd the made against him. that is the bloomberg first word -- back to you. guy: thank you very much indeed. imf officials gather in washington to decide whether to make the you want one of the -- the yuan one of the reserve currencies in the special drawing rights. here is what some of asia's watchers had to say. >> asset managers and central banks aren't just going to suddenly go by, just because it is now in the basket. they are more concerned about what they could do if there is a problem in china, how quickly they could get their money out.
just because it is in the basket doesn't make a difference. >> it is going to be evolutionary, not revolutionary. you will see a surgeon to chinese assets, a massive inflow into china. but over time, that formal uanlusion of the yoan should see a real waiting of eighting. a re-w >> there will be some implicit commitments that china made to be included, and they will continue down that line, but i don't think it will be explicit commitments listed by the imf. >> i don't think that there is going to be an immediate pressure on the renminbi. the thing is that the direct impact in terms of reserve is not going to really result until trouble. the impact of it is not that significant. i think it is more the signaling of it. guy: let's get more on that
story. tom orlik is standing by in beijing. what does this mean for china getting the green light? tom: i think this comes at a critically important moment for china, guy. 2015 has been a tough year. we had a slump in the equity markets, growing pessimism by china's great outlook, getting the yuan into the basket is really an important symbolic win. it signals to the world that there placement is going past all the problems we saw, and still has the fundamentally positive, optimistic outlook. -- the exchange rate story is almost a short-term phenomenon. that is a long-term story. how to those to correlate? tom: there is a very cynical view in the markets that having achieved their objective with
the yuan, the leaders will abruptly reversed course and focus on export competitiveness and engineer another depreciation of the youan. we think that is pretty unlikely. stabilizing coming out of the third quarter -- more stable numbers. the case for an extreme policy response like competitive devaluation is in there. i think they had a nasty shock in august when that uany devaluation of the you saw markets taking a very negative view on china's currency. we don't think china's leaders are in any hurry to see a repeat performance of that. in the short-term, our expectation is that, looking further forward into 2016, it looks like the pboc and federal reserve are going to be going in opposite directions. pboc will be easing, federal reserve will be lifting off.
we think that will be the dominant impact on the exchange rate -- not any flows from the fdr. guy: excellent analysis. . thank you very much tom orlik. patrick armstrong is still with us. there have been times when people have talked about the death of the dollar -- is this one of those moments? >> the death of the dollar has been so strong. and its rates this month will be the beginning of a gradual progression. that creates dollar strength you have every other central bank being very accommodative,, enhancing and extending. that leads to dollar strength. guy: let's talk about this chart here. this is the u.s. two-year. see, huge frame widening, that is what we are looking at. the market is anticipating a loss here. its divergence trade is consensus trade.
can either yellen or draghi disappoint? >> all the rhetoric, every statement since october has been completely consistent, that, the fed is desperate to increase rates and everything coming out loosen,cb, we need to we need to extend, we need to enhance. most mismanaged thing ever for central bank if it doesn't happen. guy: it would be a surprise. everybody knows what the surprise is -- it's already priced in. where do we move beyond the? we have seen widening, the dollar strength, it's already there. to christmas present has opened. >> everyone knows it is there, but it will be exposed to a more steady depreciation of the dollar. we think it will get -- you have bonds yielding, a very strong
incentive to switch holdings to get a bit of a currency kick. i think that needs to slow from the u.s., assuming they do get the gradual interest rate hikes and the ecb extends. guy: as the dollar goes up, commodities go down. >> i think commodities have a lot of overhang. we are talking a lot about china, and china was really rebalancing. you are really seeing it come through, the manufacturing represents less than a quarter of the economy. services are up to 30%. services are much more labor-intensive, less commodity intensive. there is that rebalancing they are trying to achieve. it is less dependent on the exports, and i think that means they don't need to engage in currency wars, because the next leg up is coming from consumption and the services. you don't need to be competitively devalued. i think it is an overhang for
commodities because of that rebalancing of china and the very high inventory levels. -- weoes this feedback get this widening, the dollar goes up, commodity goes down. that is a lower inflation story. once we have done that effectively, people say -- this is very low inflation, this is the new normal. do they have to do even more to trying to the story going? >> everyone else has to step in for the reflation are the engine. hopefully americans are going iftoff, where it has sustainable growth and unemployment falling in the coming months. ecb really does have to step in to fill that void. think of china, bank of japan will do that as well. there are no inflationary pressures and you do need accommodative policies to get away from what the fed is creating. guy: patrick, stay with us.
go from the inflation story to -- in some ways the deflation story. the busiest ever sales day on friday. import reaches european shores. will amazon be looking to break friday's record? will they? hear to discuss that, bloomberg intelligences charles allen. charles, talk me through black friday. how did it go online? how to go on high street? charles: online, that was where people were going to shop. there was a degree to which the retailers were definitely trying to do that, because it is a way of helping to spread the business out. in store, probably not as great as last year, but i think that was a little bit conscious.
asda, one of the partners of walmart who brought it to the u.k., definitely backed away from it. other people were perhaps a bit more disciplined in the numbers. retailerso remember, are trying to sell things at full price this time of year, not at discounts. guy: back to the price deflation story. so what about today? is friday become monday? does it extend over the weekend? charles: it does. a couple of things -- people will always be looking at gifts. that is one reason to shop on monday, to do it on the office computer without your family watching. that is one reason why you could do it here. another reason is it is payday, and people know how much they have to spend. but also there are those delivery times. you need to order it in november to make sure you will get it before christmas.
news, becauseood it drives click through? for is a bad news for european retailers? charles: i think there is a degree to which it is bad news. essentially it comes back to this point -- why sell something at a discount when you should be selling it at full price? yes, there are people who planned the promotions, but there are broadly speaking margins coming under pressure because of this. in terms of good news, yes, it does get people into the shops, and it does get -- for online retailers, it is a way of recruiting. that is one of the things you need to do -- get customer recruitment,. get your customers for next year guy: always a pleasure. charles allen, senior analyst at bloomberg intelligence. coming up, the big week ahead. an ecb decision thursday, opec
guy: 7:46 in london, a: 46 in paris. you are looking at live pictures from the french capital as leaders continue to arrive, being greeted by the french president francois hollande, this ahead of the climate talks. one of the things on the agenda -- geopolitics very much front and center. we will come back to that in a moment. this is the bloomberg business flash. ryan: the chairman and ceo of btg has stepped down after he was jailed indefinitely on wednesday. the largest
corruption sting ever. he has denied the accusations made against him. leavean will the bonus pool roughly unchanged. preserve bucks the trend with european competitors like deutsche bank, who are preparing to cut payouts. chinese stocks extended their biggest rout in three months as brokerages slumped amid investigations. haiton led the decline as it was looked into for financial violations. back to you. guy: thanks very much -- that get back to the geopolitical stories and the market data. turkish trade balance for october are out at the top of the hour. to data raises the question of how much the russian sanctions story may hurt. the turkish
economy let's go to turkey -- what can we expect on these figures? >> good morning. theomists surveyed by bloomberg forecast of the deficit around $3.95 billion. that is up slightly from the september figures when we saw the smallest deficit since 2010. falling commodity prices and subdued domestic demand is helping rebalance foreign trade, and analysts we have spoken to say that we could see this as a trend for the remainder of the year. guy: simin, how does the sanctions story play into this? week: the incident last deal a big blow to turkey and russian trade ties. we're seeing that russian could apply more
sanctions to turkish companies. in 2014, bilateral ties came in at more than $32 billion, second to germany. russia was turkey's biggest source of imports last year, surpassing china. so there is a lot to lose right trades do fallse we could see a big impact. guy: simin, great to see you as ever. it's a busy week. only monday. we have a lot of ground to cover -- what have we got? the ecb -- a massive decision for the ecb's governing council. expectations are so high in advance of that decision. great coverage coming up. janet yellen speaks. ahead of the tail end
of the week, with jobs day and the all-important fed decision. than the commodity story -- opec's meeting in vienna. all of these stores are heavily late, with massive market applications. let's kick this around -- jon ferro joins me, patrick armstrong still with us. jonathan: it's a big week when the fed chair slips under the radar. she seeks this week -- put that in the diary. almostlar is at 100, everyone you speak to is short euro-dollar coming into december. the have to pronounce moves lower. i wonder what is the upside. one,how do you trade this given the fact that you are he had the christmas present? >> a preannounced surprise. [laughter] >> it is going to be a slower, more gradual -- it will be a
steady appreciation of the dollar versus the euro. significants tromp positioning on institutional and retail sides. the billions of dollars they are throwing around -- guy: the margin for error here has got to be tiny. >> you have to have no faith in the central bank though. october theyce have been pushing you toward this surprise. you willon't deliver, obviously see euro strength and dollar weakness versus the euro. but they told us what they are going to do, and now it is just as they are going to surprise is beyond our expectations. it is going to be a gradual steady appreciation of the dollar. guy: i'm trying to figure out what i surprises. bloomberg did a survey -- that is the consensus trade.
but .4 is not off the table. jonathan: if they have a two-tier deposit rate we could see a 20 basis point move. for me as we go into the end of december the on the ecb meeting, you just wonder what incentive the federal reserve has to say, yes, we will hike. they have got incentive to do the opposite. it will be so, so gradual and so, so shallow that you may not even notice it. we know that the pain threshold of the fed, because history tells us there is one -- the last time the dollar index went through, and yellen mentioned the dollar. they came out one by one. guy: and talk the dollar down. jonathan: draghi hasn't done anything. the euro dollars around 115. the central bank can do whatever they want. it at some point you move toward that december meeting in the market moves away from the ecb and looks at how shallow that rate cut could be.
on top of that, the fundamentals -- there is a trade balance surplus in europe, the current account surplus in europe. there are reasons why the euro will remain fundamentally strong to an extent, it is one of the reasons we will have a consistent surround that parity call. >> i think yellen's of the cave that she can accept a strong dollar versus the euro right now. at 2.6%. is that t growth. you do need that tailwind of a weaker currency for competitiveness. in march, that they would be quick to get there. guy: my question to both of you is -- why does draghi need to do this? the data are starting to get better. >> confidence is starting to get better. union reflation. you need reflation. the euro has to sell that avoid. they obviously know what they
are going to be doing, and clearly the ecb is coming in for the reflation very engine. guy: your point is a valid one -- jonathan: your point is a valid one. people are making the point that notay complicate, it's signed just because mario draghi wants it. i wonder how that shapes any potential stimulus. >> think of where we were 12 months ago. it's the legal coming out of germany -- no one is saying we can't do this anymore. 12 months ago, factions were saying we have to do it, other saying we can't. guy: i will look of his next speech and we will see. thanks very much. "on the move" coming up very shortly. patrick armstrong. european equity markets flat, but the real story today has been this huge turnaround we saw out of shanghai, from down 3% to finishing flight.
take the future's box and that gives you the fair value calculation. such a big week, though, for equity markets. such a big day today out in paris, as francois hollande meets and greets 140 leaders from around the world at the start of the climate summit. global gathering of leaders, and they will be discussing everything from geopolitics to market. they will probably talk about the climate story as well. we will cover it -- a big week of coverage plus all the rest. the markets open up next. ♪
jon: good morning and welcome to "on the move," moments away from the start of european trading. cop21 kicks off. should energy investors brace for a bigger regulatory headache? we look at china's future on the global stage. .nd paying the price the war with syria puts turkey in focus as russia slaps on fresh sanctions.
20 seconds ahead of the market open. pre-much dead flat with dax futures also down by roundabout exploits. what a monumental week it will be in the space of 24 hours until we finish trade on friday. and thellen will speak payrolls of the last glimmer of the strength of the u.s. economy . is trading below $40. that is a new record low. interesting information from barclays saying that earnings expected to grow by about 5.5%. that is the second lowest expectations since 1988. the outlook for the european map and its earnings seems to be coming under pressure. commodities are the key. iron