tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg November 30, 2015 10:00am-11:31am EST
betty: from bloomberg world headquarters, good morning. i'm betty liu and here is what we are watching at this hour. it's a big week for the economy. the ecb likely to lower interest rates with the jobs report on friday. it may lead the fed to raise next month. opec will decide whether to let oil prices keep sinking. plus, it is bonus bonanza on wall street. particularly at jpmorgan. while other banks are cutting their bonus pools, jpmorgan says as 2014.e the same clerks are growing faster than bricks. the online shopping boom is expected to continue on cyber monday. getting all of your shopping in early perhaps. thee a half an hour into trading session. we have also got breaking economic news on pending home
sales. matt miller has the latest on that data. matt: it is not good. happy thanksgiving. the home sales data is not good. we were looking for a 1% gain. we got 2/10 of 1% gain. if you look the nonseasonally adjusted your over your number, we were looking for 4.3% and got 2.1%. thanwor -- much worse the survey at bloomberg. let us look at the equity index. we saw very little change this morning. we are seeing red arrows across the board. still really little change. 3.5s&p 500 down about points. the dow jones industrial average around 23 point 25 points. as you can see, the winners and
losers. health care is down with consumer discretionary down. you can see utilities and energy and i.t. are gainers after it's an interesting case are considering we had the biggest shopping weekend of the year. let us take a look at some of the commodities. we see bounces and commodities to finish up the month of november. it has been a bad month. here you see new york crude down 8.25%. little bit today, but it will be the worst month since july. $42.34 a barrel. a bad month. we are of today a little bit, but this is a whole month down 6.5%. 1061.40. a bad month for copper down almost 11% here. a little bit of a bounce today, which is interesting because you
do see a game in the dollar today as well. and has been a rough, rough month for commodities. the dollar continues to gain strength. betty: it does indeed. dollar strength but weakness from other currencies including the euro. matt miller at the markets desk. i want to check in on the first word news this morning. vonnie quinn has more from the news desk. andie: we begin with paris president obama calling the united nations conference on climate change a turning point. paris, president obama said this is the moment when we finally decide to save the planet. he says the u.s. has played a role in creating the problem and now wants to do something about it. the president spoke on the opening day of the conference. >> this is the moment we finally determined we will save our planet. nationhe fact that our s share a sense of urgency about this challenge and a growing realization that it is within our power to do something about it.
vonnie: for more on the story, let us go to hans nichols. talk about the challenge that lies ahead. no one is underestimating the challenge. hans: they do not want to walk away from the situation having a lot of criticism. every leader is talking about collective action. it has been the lack of collective action that has really some previous som summit similar to this and really disappoint. we have a lot of comments mixing security and the largest security story in paris. there is also as was what to do about global warming. you see mr. obama talk about this. he has taken several leaders aside and so-called bilateral meetings. he has met with vladimir putin to talk about syria and ukraine. he just spoke with the prime minister of india. you really see with this divide
as well as president obama's between theridge wealthy developed countries and the less developed countries. he was very clear that he really thought that india had a right to develop and he did not want to do anything to hinder that. old economic divide between developed countries and less developed. that is what the focus will be here in the coming weeks. to hans nichols reporting live from paris. it turkish leader says his country will not apologize for downing a russian warplanes could the prime minister spoke as turkey sent the body of the pilot to russia. the pilot died last tuesday after turkish jets shot down the russian bomber. aid a visits p to a mosque in the war-torn capital of the central african republic. violence has risen after muslim rebels overthrew the christian president years ago.
it is a final stop the post three nation african trip. a court hearing will be held today for the man accused of killing three people at a planned parenthood clinic in colorado. robert deere was arrested friday after a standoff in colorado springs. police say that deere told them he has antiabortion and antigovernment views. that is a look at our first word news right now. you can get more on these and other breaking stories toy for hours a day at the new bloomberg.com. i vonnie quinn. betty: thank you so much. it is a big week for the global economy and global investors. the imf makes that decision on china's currency. that vote is held today. on thursday, the ecb needs to consider and other interest rate cut. the federal reserve will be keeping a close eye on the jobs report as it considers a rate hike in december. joining us in new york is mike mckee to make sense of all this.
london, simon kennedy. simon, i want to start with you. the ecd is on tap later this week. 100% say they're going to add more stimulus and ease rates. the question is can they do this without creating any kind of backlash in the markets? simon: they did pretty clear in signaling since september that it changes coming and mario draghi especially has raised his rhetoric since then two weeks ago, he was talking about doing whatever they must to move inflation more quickly. they have prepared the markets and mario draghi does like to overdeliver. perhaps we will see more coming this week. in some sense, the ecb has prepared markets so that the more thanf it does currently expected, a lot is already expected. betty: simon, what exactly is
going to happen or likely to happen? play out for us to move. the deposit rate is the rate of the ecb charges on banks to hold its money overnight. that is likely to be pushed further into negative territory. how much remains to be seen on thursday. they have the quantitative plan. amount ofncrease the monthly buys. those in the main policies we can expect to see it on tuesday. betty: mike, by the way, letting the pink sweater look today. house is going to affect janet yellen and the fed? mike: what the ecb is going to do will not affect janet yellen. own will make their decisions based on the data they get to simon talked about the need to prepare the markets. mario draghi has done that. janet yellen gets her chance to do that wednesday and thursday. she gets another economic policy speech and gets to go before the
joint economic committee in congress. see is expected to set the stage for a rate increase depending on how the jobs report comes in on friday. it would take a pretty bad number for them to change their mind. , as trot you did, the markets price in an idea of a move. any backing off from that would put a lot of volatility in the markets that they do not want to see. betty: when we say a really bad job number, what are we talking about? mike: we've seen the unemployment rate go up more than a 10th of a percent for negative reasons. as more people come into the labor market, that is good news. 125,000e anything below , #capture the market's attention, we might start to raise questions about whether they would go ahead with it on december 16. betty: with what is going on in washington today is the vote by the imf on whether to accept the yuan into the special drawing rights basket. on that note, will that make any difference?
about monetary policy. how significant will that be for central-bank policies and for the global economy? mike: in the short run, it will not have widely any affected isn though the imf believing it's widely traded. beth had to the dollar for years canyuan and now they start to let it weaken to prop up the economy. the ultimate fallout from the ecb and what china does is a stronger dollar. it will affect the u.s. economy and, mounted the prices. desk commodity prices. betty: before we go, in terms of other officials in europe who are dissenting against mario draghi and the ecb, are we hearing those dissenters? are they growing in volume or less so given the numbers that
are coming out of europe? simon: they're not as vocal as they once were. they're trying to find another one to leave that charge. he is usually not shy about letting people know what he felt. we might well see a statement later on thursday if indeed he did object to the policy in any way. betty: simon kennedy, our chief international economics correspondent in london for us. mike mckee, thank you so much. reminder -- we will have live coverage of the ecb's interest rate decision. there news conferences on thursday. that begins at 7:45 a.m. eastern time. much more ahead on bloomberg television. this is going to affect the markets as well. online shopping beating brick-and-mortar retail over the black friday holiday weekend. how does it affect retailers? what does it mean for consumers?
betty: good morning and welcome back to "bloomberg markets." let's head back to matt miller who has a check on the movers. you looking at a lot of retailers. not only looking at retailers, but things that are retail. we are looking at fitbit. it was raised to overweight at barclays. the analysts say it was too compelling to ignore. the current valuation now because the stock is up more than 3% in this early trade is 30 times next year's estimated earnings. barclays getting on board with other analysts who recently upgraded. i think bank of america upgraded. $1.77 thinks it will earn
billion in revenue next year, which is a lot of money for these little bracelets that measure your heart rate. lululemon was cut to underperform, going to other way. moving the price target down the $42 from $55 a share. it says that it saw high clearance levels when it was doing channel checks. a lot of lululemon out there on sale. going toaid that it's be difficult for lululemon to shift to international sales, something that fitbit is doing right. also difficult is the shift to men's products in children's products from women's products. i do not see a lot of men wearing those supertight yoga pants. betty: and super extensive now, too. matt: they are on sale so you can stop by and get an extra pair if you want. finally, under armour right now coming down in the early trade this morning. i saw a bloomberg social velocity alert on this.
-- if you type that in and pull up the bloomberg terminal here, you can see a number of interesting things. what people are posting. here you can see the severity of those posts with the color coding. green obviously being good. orange being neutral. read being negative. ass is a big pop right not the market where people talk about under armour as the stock falls in the early trade. miller att the market best. as shopping trend continues what is a record cyber monday with $3 billion in sales according to adobe, the company that looks at web traffic. meanwhile, the black friday sales were down 11% from last year according to the national retail federation. online sales were up 18%.
janet covers retail for bloomberg and joins us now. archaic toeels like talk about cyber monday. talkingi first started to retailers, i would bring up cyber monday and i said, is the still open? a thing? they were all shop online for the first time. even though we can shop at any moment of our waking day for most people now, people are still looking for deals. retailers feel like they have to be offering deals because cyber monday is still in grained the consciousness of americans. they're going to be deals that they all lie. retailers still have to offer even more deals on cyber monday. betty: what does this mean though that brick-and-mortar is down 11% or so and online is up? what does that mean them? n? shannon: a sale is a sale.
i was talking to the target ceo and he says the best customers are the one who shop online and in the stores. time and time again, retailers have found that you do better if you give the customers -- get the customers in the physical store. they want you in the store because of the impulse buys. you'll pick something up on the way to the checkout, even the candy bars. you'll buy more in store. if more people are going online rather than in stores, that is a concern for retailers. one of the things that tried to do to address that is by online and pick up in-store. they're not offering free shipping on everything. you have to spend at least $50. if you want to buy it online, you can pick it up for free in the store. they try to make it convenient, but they still get you in the door. betty: did walmart do well this weekend? shannon: we really are only seeing numbers trickle out. one number that we do have that looks good is amazon.
all their sales are purely online. creditwas up 28% on flat -- black friday. most people expected to be up 3% or 4%. amazon despite how big they are are still up 20% this year. betty: speaking of knowing a good media opportunity, amazon takes this weekend to unveil a video of their drug service. i think we have got some of the video. let us role it. it is this huge drone that will deliver packages to your backyard. comment from an amazon executive on the future of using drones for retail. >> we are doing automation programs like the drug program, which as soon as legislation supports it, we will be able to integrate into our prime network. betty: are they ever looking at this as more than just a niche thing? shannon: we asked that executive on how big drones are.
he believes in it. it's a reality and something they are actually going forward on. they do not see this as a gimmick and a way to just get somebody hype. betty: this is going to be massively used by amazon? they have to get the federal regulations. the analysts that i've talked to do not see any huge barriers. maybe it will take time and it's a little unclear how long it will take to get the federal guidelines in place, that they do not see the federal government saying no, absolutely not at all. betty: that means someday. [laughter] just have to have a backyard first. shannon, thank you so much. much more ahead, disney shares struggling to rebound after espn loses more than 3 million subscribers this year. wars" what is needed to bounce back? ♪
betty: espn declined in subscribers, down 7 million in the past two years. they are still off today. that attention is shifting to the new star wars movie, which premieres in less than two weeks. disney?r wars" save joining us now is paul sweeney, who covers disney on the half of bloomberg intelligence. this is pretty incredible. 7 million subscribers -- how much is that worth to disney? paul: a lot of money because disney gets north of six dollars per subscriber per month. that adds up to real dollars rose quickly. betty: punches of millions of dollars. paul: this is an issue that disney flag on their earnings call in august. that sent disney down as well as
their entire media group sold off because of the news. they filed their 10k last week and confirmed it for some investors and raise the issue once again. the cord cutting and the court shaving is an issue facing all cable networks, even espn, the dominant cable network out there. it is feeling the effects. it is something that investors are concerned about. when you have a lower number of subscribers, that is lower fees and lower ratings and advertising revenues. it is definitely a challenge. betty: does this lower the amount that espn can charge cable operators? can they keep charging that? paul: we'll have to see. they have had great success over the years being able to charge ever higher rates. what is happening in the world of 500 channels and over-the-top television is that it is a difficult to assemble a big audience. one of the types of programs that generates an audience is live sports. espn is the leader in sports, so
they have a tremendous compelling product for every package of it. oft has been the driver their ability to raise rates every. any of this really matter to bob iger if he has "star wars" coming up? paul: the biggest profit generator at the walt disney company is espn. betty: almost half their profit? paul: executive it is supporting the stock and the faces some of these challenges is "star wars" coming up. it will be a beginning of a tremendous run at the box office -- boxd thus expended office expected this year. you have that and the marvel content, which has been a german his home run for disney over the years. plus there are pixar movies. investors feel very bullish about that. it offsets to some degree some of the weakness we are seeing. betty: are they pricing this and
already in the share price? paul: i think so. disney has been the best performing of the media stocks because their model is so diverse of five. it is their films and entertainments that look rocksolid. their themepark business has been a great profit generator and growth generated for them and comcast. ks businessal par has been a great story for comcast. that is what people overlook when they think about growth drivers, but it has been a very steady driver for profit growth. betty: paul sweeney, good to see. on bloomberg television, jpmorgan sending a strong message to bankers and traders. your bonus is not going to be touched. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,
i am betty liu. >> the focus may be on climate change in paris, but also giving leaders a chance to discuss the fight against the islamic state. francois hollande as one support from vladimir putin and the u.s. . the race is on to convert those promises into success against terrorism on the battlefield. the european union have agreed threat. -- to slow the the eu will give the turks more than 3 billion dollars to help refugees. it will also restart negotiations on the bid to become a member of the european union. willniversity of chicago counsel after receiving an anonymous threat. .hey won an online threat they are trying to figure out who is responsible. the democratic presidential front-runner will campaign with warren buffett.
the billion or hometown of omaha, nebraska. the wealthiest americans are not paying their fair share. that is a look at the bloomberg hearst news. you can get a look at them at bloomberg.com. thank you. jp morgan is putting pressure when it comes to year and bonuses. they are leaving it unchanged compared to the rhinos -- rivals cutting bonus payments. joining us on the phone is bloomberg contributing editor --l conlin wrote the bill on wrote the book on goldman sachs along with many other. he remains in litigation with the bank. us what's went into the
thinking with jp morgan. maintaining your , its pool investment bank is actually really good. that had a very good year. fixed income had a terrible year. investment banking has had a good year. >> equities and m&a has helped to save the bonus pool. press and the other way around. jp morgan would say this is the bonus of our business model, the breadth of our businesses allow us to maintain bonuses the same areas have a some tough year. >> what does that mean the fact that some -- that jpmorgan was able to maintain the bonus pool when rivals had to cut their bonus pool.
i think this is an ongoing trend that has been going on for a couple of years now, which is the diminution of the european banks. they just retreated from it left and right. rbssee it up barclays and and i think this will continue big walld to the street firms to differentiate themselves and be more best ande to the brightest in the industry. another nail in the coffin -- >> i think so.e? europeans are retreating from certain areas of extend come. why don't we see that yet gekko i think the story is it takes a little bit longer for that to happen. ability to be the all things from all people.
what you will see is jp morgan. goldman sachs. this is something that what you heard to take a step back is called the first cut of that this russian. obviously still 2015. december will play a role in that. betty: as you say, things could change a bit. >> john cryan is not wrong. bankers are probably paid too much relative to the earnings power of these firms. when more power is required, as the trend. is big expense item
compensation and bonuses and the best way to think kris --fitability and return to the best way to increase profitability and return to shareholders is inevitable. and i have talked about this for a long time, attracting shareholders. bitnetat least my bonus -- not get caught. what does that say? >> the fact remains you can make more money on wall street for taking there are risk than anywhere on earth. , then you your goal will do it. whether you're bonuses $2 million, and is ill more than you can get doing anything else where you are not risking your own capital. you will be able to attract the best.
what this shows is wall street both the french a between the m&a banks who had a great year. they will get paid more. what is likely to happen after we get through bonus isson? >> bonus season employees will start to hear about bonuses. typically will be laid off. people deciding i will explore other opportunities. shuffle from great now until around february when the bonuses are paid out. it has been the story that it is the place to go. seat.is fewer and fewer overall if you are sitting at the end game winners, goldman,
jp morgan and the other big firms, which are stealing market share from europeans and others, i think you will be pretty happy overall. there is a lot less movement, and that is bad for recruiters because that is how they make any. there is this micro line. overall there is not a lot of movement. as we have talked about, you have made your past from banking to so many other areas, including writing. that path from banking to trading, is that closing pretty quickly? it always happens with the best and the brightest. it has been a tough year for hedge funds. relatively tough year for
private equity firms. think he is absolutely right. there will always be some movement. definitely an end game kind of play. if you really want to be in banking, you will not be from goldman to somewhere else. if you really want to be in banking, you will stick with it at this point. there will always be the element of the people that want to go with the sexiest businesses. betty: thank you to a few who covers the bank for us.
bedecember there would stimulus. stoxx 600 set to finish november higher. first time it has managed to consecutive months of gains since march. the biggest decline are in europe. the dutch insurer, look at the shares down by 10%. it once to boost capital levels because of new regulations. ts to boostwan capital levels. the worst performance since march. also on track or the third monthly decline against the dollar, which has not happened in eight months. every single economists in a bloomberg survey forecast the thinking onsome thursday.
dropping below 354 the first time since april. said in the member sunday times interview that he thinks rape should be kept low for the time being. he said economic growth needs to bitilize, or even pick up a and wages need to rise more strongly before the bank can consider the third rate hike since 2007. falling below that level for the first time in seven months earlier. i will eu and 30 minutes. welcome back, by the way. betty: i missed you. i really missed your charts. >> it is coming. betty: i cannot wait.
i want to go to the nasdaq with companies moving after analyst upgrades and downgrades. the nasdaq after raymond james upgraded shares to a strong buy from a market perform. as a long company time move in the cloud. a price target of 62. $60 setback in 1999. lululemon, the stock down after fdr downgraded the shares to underperform from market perform . analyst susan anderson sees they are likely to be weighed on by a number of factors, including inventories. significantly higher clearance levels at stores and online over the past few weeks. a new price target of 42. predicting the price target will drop by 40% by market close.
thank you so much. staying on tech. enterprise companies cannot seem to venice -- figure it out. motorola seems to be outperforming after google sold to lenovo. space has been invested in four years. joining us to talk about the biggest up and comers and that arena who joins us now from stanford, california. in the space is we will see more consolidation in the coming years. >> absolutely. we are at an unprecedented time. we are seeing great innovation on the private side. most probably one of the exciting times.
>> people say that about many different eras. what is a friend of time around? >> two things. one of them is the move to the cloud. of second, the notion hardware-based. margine all seeing pressure. small companies and the security in the cloud side are seeing market depression. how are the valuations in the enterprise startups? valuationr about the in the consumer startup. the consumer and valuations gekko what about the airbnb side? >> --the consumer and valuation? >> clearly it is higher across the board. at the end of the day to me, i care about exit valuation. they are holding up really well. when you say really well,
give me some comparisons. a $3 billion market cap now. that is something eight years ago was less than a $2 million valuation. you have a great outcome there. investors, the enterprise market broadly giving venture returns. venture capitals at an all-time high. betty: what are you looking at? what is most exciting for you right now? >> most exciting right now is security. everything we do is digital to security. securities of they issue. this is probably the number one issue. the number one issue is probably private cloud.
betty: we have an article talking about the lenders who are playing in the banks -- and what the banks called the shadow banking market. knowledge heg tech and funding people that may not have been able to act as funding through regular lines. what about that space? how much opportunity there is in big area of opportunity. they are a leader in global advisors. what they are doing is very similar to what many have done. you look back five years from now, and they will be a big multibillion-dollar company in the same area. >> take opportunities in that area. betty: is there a risk? >> there is a risk, but they are
always ahead of the regulators. i think people are working through it. i think eventually they will figure out a way for regulation to coexist. it has always happened that way. thank you so much. the managing partner with menlo ventures. no pain means no more gain from kobe bryant. what the lakers will be like after his retirement after 20 years.
stories in the news right now. the federal reserve voted to give up the lending tools it used. didomes after they restrict this to firms. they will only be able to take five at the same time. the will prevent the fed from bailing out a single company. this will cover signing bonuses for union workers. the new contract was ratified 10 days ago. each worker will get an 8500 dollars signing bonus. a jailed billionaire stepping down from his position at the largest independent investment bank. he was arrested last week. adele set a record for album sales and the u.s.. americans brought almost -- but almost 3.4 million copies of 25
in the first week. you can always get more business .ews at bloomberg.com kobe bryant is saying goodbye after more than 20 years. he now will retire after this season due to physical aches and pains. for more, i want to bring in scott sosnick. he was the next generation fromel jordan? >> no segue adele? >> this guy came out of high school. jerry west came out of high school. five championships later. an iconic, once in a generation. one in a lifetime.
>> what did you think of how he said goodbye? we have part of his problem. der basketball, i am ready to let you go, i'm ready to let you know now. let's let's examine he is already ready for the next stage . ?hy did he do it he is an investor in the layers tribune. this is derek jeter. -- players tribune. he is already thinking how can i bring publicity? >> smart businessman. nike has been so aligned with kobe bryant for 70 years. it is not like the stable is empty.
what nike once, nike gets. in asia forhas been more than a decade. you do not to show up. you have to show you are vested in the culture. he is making off-season trips there for a long time. he is an iconic figure and has been for a long time. he won the championship, five of them. he will still choose around the world, long after his laying days are over. -- playing days are over. he knows what he is doing. so he will continue -- endorsements will continue to roll in. that will not stop. what else will he be doing? >> whatever he wants. he has an endorsement arm. look for him to leverage his
name with tech startups. he has been there, he has been there for a while. michael jordan and magic johnson. those guys have become smart business. said he would like to own a piece of the baseball game. nice to have kobe in some sort of venture. that would help. betty: he has the world at his feet literally. thank you so much. goodbye. hello and goodbye. a quick programming note, dartmouth expert, danny blanchflower on with us next. ♪
♪ from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good morning, i am betty liu. here is what we're watching. countdown to lift off. interestill raise rates. rates may go lower in europe. who knows where oil is headed next. try to make people forget about bill gross. -- the fund manager making a most millions. president obama meets with vladimir putin and avoids a potential catastrophe as that climate summit gets underway. underway. 90 minutes into the trading segment. i want to go to the trading desk where matt miller has the latest. might be up in europe, but down here. : i am looking at whole
month records, and single day movers. the indexes right now. i would call this unchanged. down.oins -- dow jones the nasdaq as well. if you take a look at the month, and i will put in the s&p index, this will give us a look at the seasonality, it quick on steep map and you will see something cool on the terminal -- heat map, and you will see the years and months up and down. this is 2015 and 2013. november all the way out here. this is the historical average. about .3%.ain of still, november a winner since
2011 it looks like. november going to be a positive month as far as stocks are concerned, but just barely compared to the past few years. cool chart. thank you. the euro, yes. the euro having a rough month. since march.th that is the reason you see european stocks up. you can get more for less with your dollar. foras been a rough month the shared currency. the worst month since april in the first month since march. getting down here for it though
close of the year. if that makes it cheaper to go on vacation overseas. you can go skiing if you want. betty: thank you. i want to check on the news with courtney donohoe. >> hillary clinton will campaign with billion or warren buffett month in his hometown. they will appear at a grassroots rally in omaha. buffett and clinton are in favor of tax for him. they say the wealthiest americans are not faring there -- paying their fair share. president obama calls this a turning point. the president spoke on the opening day of the conference. >> this is the moment we finally determined he would save the planet. the fact that our nation's share
a sense of urgency about this challenge, and a growing realization it is within our power to do something about it. there will be new restrictions placed on turkish fruit and vegetable him worth. previously russia restricted travel to and from turkey and band turkish construction firms. meanwhile, pollution cannot get much worse in beijing. some levels have reached 30 times the levels considered safe by the world health organization. the suspect is a planned parenthood shooting in colorado springs meet -- makes his first appearance in court today. his appearance will be done by video. three people killed, 12 people wounded in friday's attacks. he made a comment, no more baby
parts. witnesses told planned parenthood the government was opposed to abortion. you can get more on these and other breaking stories on 24 hours a day from the bloomberg first word desk. thank you so much. back on the market, the currency markets in particular should the chinese yen he considered a reserve currency? that is a discussion underway right now at the national monetary fund. rebounding from early losses on application the imf will add this to the reserve basket. this is all on the heels of president obama and chinese president meeting on the sidelines of the climate summit in paris. i want to bring in steve and nicolas con scenario eurasia group director of practice.
this boat is likely to go china's way. they are likely to get it admitted. chinese have been lobbying this for quite some time. the imf has been generally supported. the big ray came during the visit to washington in september of this year when president obama said the u.s. would support inclusion if the imf decided the currency met the technical criteria. >> i think this is bigger issues. on the currency issue, there seems to be pretty much a line in terms of inclusion. changewhat is going to once we see this vote? what changes for the currency market? >> not very much changes.
i think what we will see in the short-term is global central binding is a little bit of r&b to the reserve portfolio. not a very liquid currency. most central banks do not need them for very much of anything. i think we will probably be high-fiving -- see high-fiving in beijing but no major change in trading pattern. betty: so there is no literal market impact, then why is it so important in china? why is it so important to have this? >> the chinese see themselves as being the co-anchor of the international financial system with the u.s., and probably as being the more responsible partner in the co-anchor ship in becoming part as thesdr that is viewed
global acknowledged should that they are viewed in the major leadership. does this help in any way in terms of beating of reforms are any impact in that area? >> i think this is as that in the right direction. this is consistent with the kinds of reforms they want to accomplish. the central bank governor has said that china once to have currency by 2020. i agree this is a signal of where they are headed but a lot more to come from china on where they are headed. betty: that is their goal of getting to a floating currency, what will happen to the u.n. in the next 12 months. >> i think a lot depends on what will happen to the dollar. given the weakness in the dollar
theeciation, i think it is frequency. but liquidity they are promising and the market participants, and they view it as allowing them to to now turnmetable in. >> i think what we have to keep in mind is all of the concern about china as having a very confrontational posture in terms of the economical architectural, what we see today is this is a very integrationist movement. china wants to participate within it.
they want to be able to shape this in a way they believe is more in their favor. over the next couple years we asked to see china to find ways to further integrate, not to shape the basic reality in ways that is seen as negative for the same power but negative -- but architecture. we cannot ignore the tensions around china. we have cyber espionage around china. we have the south china sea. relationseems like are buying a little bit, there is a whole lot of tensions in that area and you cannot ignore those factors. >> right. issues are a big issue. some china sea in taiwan are big issues.
probably ushering in a pretty significant risk between china and taiwan and china and the u.s.. those are big concerns. china asat about another destructive force in the d you see them able to manage reforms better than they did in 2000 15? >> ice think they will continue to have a hard time. --better than they did in 2015? --i think that they will continue to have a hard time. i think if you look at the reaction, both to august and the equity market pressure, they are still uncomfortable with the ideal of financial markets determining financial asset prices. i think 2015 will be hard for them, or just as hard as this year. , thankstephen englander
after falling in december. home retail take up 90% of the market. ibm says online sales were up andover the weekend predicted online sales will rise more than 18%, a year ago. the most popular item, nike running shoes, hoverboards and anything star wars. amazon has unveiled a new prototype of the delivery drown. a range of 15 miles per hour. you may not see this drone in action for some time, if ever, because the company faces a number of regulatory hurdles. watch.is still fun to you can always get more business news at bloomberg.com. i want to go to our news desk where matt miller has a check of the headlines. coty, cut tog with
underweight and morgan stanley. shares are down today. .t is really a valuation trade the stock has been up 33% year to date already. this is a time to take morgan stanley off the table -- to take them off the table. i want to highlight the biggest tech stocks. games.utting up microsoft even bigger gains. raise to a strong by at raymond james. they said they are really the cloud winner on everything you can think of from infrastructure as service to platform to microsoft. , if you take a look at the last year, microsoft versus apple, and have reinvested
dividend, you would be surprised outperformingft apple in the past few weeks. microsoft the better performer then apple for the entire year. betty: interesting. matt miller at the market desk. pimco's term -- total return fund still reeling from the exit of bill gross 13 months ago. it is beating at least 98% of its peers from this past five years and they had the first month of net inflows in more than two years. joining us from l.a. john pendleton who covers the bond king's or us. tell us about how he has been able to do this. very divided this
investing process. half of the funds approximately is in very safe dividend-type yielding returns and the other half is in riskier type of investments that give higher yields but a little bit more volatility. by keeping so much in the study but sure think he is cap volatility down while able to have high returns. betty: give us a picture of how well he has done. >> the 99th percentile for the past five years. today in the 98 percentile. up more than 3%. the other one that are his peers are up 2.5% for the deborah -- double-blind fund of 2%.
1% year to less than date. he has done very well. a bit of a different animal than bill gross. he certainly does not stay in the spotlight. he is not out there prop off the caning. -- not out there prop snack -- prognosticating. by doing his homework he has found many small investments. this and has over 500 different investments. he finds little jewels out there that he put slivers of money into. they all add up to a good return. in your store you found
one of his best investments is in mortgages the right? >> at the time of the housing crash he invested his money in there. about 25% of the fund is an nonagency mortgages. these have stabilized. how youhe questions is will make money when this is like a diminishing pool of funds to invest in. in terms of avoiding, he is unable to avoid things that have turned out to be good. he has avoided that. >> he has done well avoiding some of the pitfalls of emerging markets. he has invested in emerging markets and has done and sure it -- and sharon stifler bets
betting on australia, tied to china. australia havein paid off handsomely this year for example. betty: thank you very much john. .uch more ahead as we have been discussing, decision day, christine lagarde due to's beat on the vote and decision. that is in less than 10 minutes time. we will bring you her remarks and all of those headlines live on bloomberg television. ♪
betty: we are moments away from the european close. mark harton joining me from london for the next half hour. some of the most important news hitting the global market. we are about to get news from the imf. they have had their review. bewe know china will admitted to reserve currency status. back in july the preliminary report the imf suggested 14%-16%. when christine the card said we will have it for you. if we don't have it for you live, we will tell you about it. we are waiting to see what the weightings are. and also, the discussions and the risks and the pros and the cons. hopefully we will get insight to that when she's. we will spot to chief
economist. interestingly, one of her big year and themes is china. ecbis looking at china, the and the dollar. drum anyg the ecb louder ahead of the meeting. every economist has unanimously said the ecb will add stimulus. the devil is in the detail. betty: it is. we're never seen economist agree on anything 100%, but they certainly do on the ecb. >> isn't there some joke about that? hans nichols will be in paris. he is that the climate change conference. i missed you last week.
erik schatzker quite a stern judge. we had this person julie hyman on, she wiped the floor with me. expectingck, and i am that -- favorable status. betty: i am hearing fighting words here. note carrying boating favor with the judge right yet. >> great to see you. wrapping up for the day. set to those at the highest level in three months. we are awaiting the big news from the imf. all the details on bloomberg are gets and the european close next. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world.
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wrapping of trading over the 30 minutes. european stocks rising to the highest level in three months. dictation building ahead of euros -- thursday's european built -- european close. the european close starts right now. betty: on this monday we will take you from new york, london, and paris in the next half hour. european stoxx 600 three-month high. started the month as they ended the month. the stoxx 600 rising for a second consecutive month. sinceas not happened raising one million euros. new regulat