>> welcome. edwards.nna >> let's go here. we have the new year and the starting with the composite down down earlynzhen is with the latest manufacturing data. manufacturing is dropping for the fifth straight month and i have a touch of all of these for you. of course what we have is the it was embassy and attacked.
the west texas intermediate and the political risk here, you have the number one producer and number five producer on the back of a record two years we have seen. it is a political rally and we supply andt the oil the huge debate between the political and the bear market factors. >> let's get to the news with caroline hyde. >> oil is trading higher this morning with tensions escalating . they have cut ties with the islamic republic. the embassy was attacked and protest came in response to the execution of a shiite cleric.
worse than expected chinese manufacturing is expected with the risky assets. for anufacturing weekend six-month and there was a gauge of services in india. fisher says it may be necessary for the central bank to increase rates. stressed that this should be the first. the economy is in a reasonable situation and it may be possible to use the interest and the asset prices.
>> thank you very much. they have cut ties after the attacks on the embassy. in minutes, we will speak to elliott god can. react?iran likely to see what else we can have the attack on the embassy. we have the divine hand of revenge and it is not really action toe around any punish the saudi's for what they did. also, the president has made it interestt they have no
in escalating this thing further. for the president, this is not a great time. there is a situation that plays into the hands of hardliners. >> what are the possible regional repercussions? been at each other regionally for several years now and there is a proxy war going on and running in their with rebelsrabia accusing the and fighting underground. you have a proxy war in syria.
has other areas iran increasing support. they are already supporting syria quite extensively and it remains to be seen whether there will be an intensification of the conflict. >> let's go to our middle east editor. i mentioned the price of crude rising. the question was about it boiling higher. suppose that they will be able to distinguish between a war affords and what is
happening on the ground. mentioned, we are talking about saudi arabia and, until there is indications, we will only see a reaction in the markets. as you said, it is a second straight session in a row. getting atably little bit nervous. perspectiveit of record below $40. there is a ways to go before we
get back here. >> thank you very much. thank you. >> let's check out. good morning to you. a new year and a new roller coaster this morning. triggerstunning way to the start of the new year. arounde is a joke going on social media that this may have done on purpose to see if they have. >> let's get to what is happening and we are down around 2%. it is a full day start to the to 1998 and it is in china.
will triggere that losses atnd we have about this much. we will see how this plays out in the markets. we have these to be priced and drop.e the offshore again, back to you. let's bring in the next guest for the half-hour. happy new year to you. we have so much to talk about. thes talk about geopolitical tensions. you think this will be
>> we can see the rates dramatically falling over last year. you see it coming through. it just takes a while. there are a lot of bearish market sentiments. there is currently a lot of weakness. and the area we're looking at is seeing a lot of weakness. weakness to come through. in a this going to be seen commodity-related seen? to and are going to have
italian supercar a stockll trade on exchange. it completed a spinoff of the super-luxury division. more on those stories. manus: thank you. newing in china under the circuit system with a drop on chinese stocks, heading for their worst-ever starts. our chief asian economies joins us now. happy new year. it looks like a fairly rough spot. >> right. there is a narrative in 2015 manufacturing and and relative strength in
services. we look at the official numbers and the manufacturing continues to be week. we are expecting this story. the critical thing for the it is more job intensive and that will generate a lot of opportunities and it means the government does not have to do the two aggressive stimulus. 2016, we get rearview near -- mirror numbers. what you expect? >> heading into 2016, it is a story of stabilization.
cuts accelerating the public spending and we are starting to see it through the end of 2015. we expect that in the early part is the expectation official numbers showing a progressive weakening in growth and it will come in around 7% or 6%. we think it will edge down. there is a gentle slow down in growth with official baidoa. is thatr expectation
andth with independents private measures in the larger economy. tom.: thank you very much, we are looking at manufacturing data. what was your phrase? anna: new year, new roller coaster. what is the expectation? >> it will not cut rates. we have stability in the think theyand we will go below the projected and -- inevitably anna: they talked about a
surplus of housing and they are more in debt management, rather than broader measures. >> it is more about the fine tuning and the pmi. we do things involving construction out there. this is the dollar and they trade on the index. said he would90, stop the bubbles. where are you with the dollar? are we going to see another year?
another leg of the dollar and there is a difference with what the fed is looking for and what the market projects will lead to more. and, however, we have a bearish view on the economy and we back inthat we will be march. the extent of the hiking cycle will be what? you talked about this and -- not going to get into the he talks about a zero dream. you talk about a u-turn in the
the consumer spending supports the economy and it is a pillar of growth. about the's talk united kingdom and the big year for the united kingdom with what is happening in the country and the grexit. we have a poll that shows theiderable concern about buildup to brexit. inre is tremendous pressure 2016 and deutsche bank wants a dollar 15. it a risk for starting? >> we look at the general the bondhere and market is priced in. it is almost too early to tell
reasonable situation, employment, targeted inflation. it may be possible or wise to try to use the interest rate to deal with what is happening to asset prices. higher astrading tensions escalate between saudi arabia and iran. they have cut ties with the islamic republic after the saudi embassy in toronto was attacked. -- tehran was attacked. more on those stories. anna: thank you. you have been watching the markets as well, caroline. caroline: what evidence of sheer risk aversion this morning. we were just talking about the as the circuit breakers come into action. immediately tripped,
down 7%, options trading and stocks halted after half of the day in china. the csi 300 showing that risk aversion. chinese data coming in worse than expected. it looked like china's manufacturing industry might the or two. a headache a signal of contraction. that's the longest losing streak since 2009. you dig into the private data, many trusts that better. missingzhen composite estimates. all this whirring about manufacturing -- worrying about manufacturing pulling down on stocks.
every single industry group is trading lower and china, metals selling off, and commodity-related foreign exchange. dollar, the new zealand daughter. meanwhile, the search for safety. gold goes higher. yen goes higher. this is the dollar down versus the yen. the yen having the strongest day since october against the dollar. bracing ourselves for more economic day letter, -- data. data, inflation data, the market is expecting stabilization. i as an manufacturing data comes out as well. keep an eye on oil.
manus: thank you very much. saudi arabia is at the top of the news this morning. they cut ties after attacks on its embassy in tehran. we speak to our reporter in dubai. do by now. get to how is iran likely to act following this news overnight from saudi arabia? >> it is difficult to guess what iran will be doing, but we might see in the immediate term is a conflict between the and hard-lineons elements in the political establishment. we saw the initial reaction coming from iran after the
execution. we have on one hand, the supreme leader, more on the hard-line side, coming out with a strong warning about repercussions. then we have the iranian president saying with a much more balance, nuanced tone, condemning, but at the same time condemning the storming of the embassy. what we might be seeing now is a type of conflict happening on what might be the more dominant voice coming out of iran. immediate,the more medium run, what iran could be doing if it wants to step up and show a stronger face, might be the fact that they would want to step up their support in areas within the region where they are engaged with saudi arabia and , wherears, yemen, syria
they are each in those countries supporting opposing forces. it is difficult to predict, but we are seeing an escalation of be rhetoric, and it will possible there will be repercussions. anna: thank you. let's bring in our guest host. senior advisor at credit squeeze. great to see you. -- credit suisse. great to see you. story to dealedit with on day one. is this something that sticks or drops away from the headlines? this isirst comment is just an escalation of an existing piece of tension. let's not forget that we have yemenis proxy war in between saudi arabia and iran, inconclusive.
the cease-fire broke down last week. in addition, in syria, a coalition of around, has law, -- law has two questions. will the escalation increase. the big pressure point is actually the eastern province of saudi arabia, because the where youovince is have that concentration of this year population. shia population. that is the area to watch. escalation ande tension domestically and saudi arabia, but i would be very surprised if it seriously got out of control to the extent that it disrupts saudi arabian oil production.
likewise, let's not forget that iran is motivated to increase production. this reaction to the oil price which you have on your graph, yes, it is logical, because geopolitical tension results in a higher oil price at a time when oil is very oversold, but let's not forget that both saudi arabia and iran have plans to maintain or increase production. manus: let's pick up on that. if you look at the fundamentals, the two's worst years for the oil market, russia is at a record, saudi arabia is over supplying -- you could be forgiven for having a bearish outlook this year. where do you see -- the processe are in of forming a base. churnk the brent will
between the low 30's and the mid 40's for at least the first half of this year. it is very difficult to put forward a case for an oil price recovery. a daily surplus, which is very significant, yes, rig counts are coming down, but coming down slowly. yes, high cost areas like alaska and the north sea can cut back. , the economics looks very poor on price levels for oil. saying thatguments over the next six months, we will see the supply side tightening, but i don't see much of an improvement in demand. i think we will go through this unsatisfactory price turning, brent in the lower 30's -- price churning, brent in the lower 40's and 30's. seeing on the back
of week pmi data, this is not a new story. china storye rumbling through 2015. how nervous are you? chinese equity markets are down shenzhen.8% in into whatreak it down is happening in the economy. we have this ongoing divergence between the official andfacturing pmi, 49.7, another that is consistently weaker. i don't see any reason why that should change. as one looks at the drivers for the chinese economy in 2016, consumption data is still running over 10% year on year. infrastructure spending is still very strong.
this restructuring of the economy with more focus on the service sector. manufacturing will remain weak. it is consistent with the imf forecast for this year, 6.3% growth. i think that is right. market,ooks at the clearly sentiment is negative. i washe last 2-3 weeks, nervous about the chinese market because we have had this very good rally since last september july.the bubble bursts in we crash down to around 2.5 thousand on the shanghai composite then rallied back to 3.5 thousand. close to 3000. i think it is a technical reaction against a background of inevitably poor manufacturing data. comment, focus on the currency. you have this quite major cnh,gence between cny and
cnh trading above 6.6. it looks weak. it looks like it will get weaker. manus: we think they will come closer together. >> i think it is reasonable that we will see the chinese renminbi trade in the first half of this year, 670, and that's not good for capital flows in or out of the chinese economy, because chinese investors expect further currency weakness, then they will export capital. manus: thank you very much. ofy with us for the rest "countdown". ♪
you are watching "countdown". let's get to bloomberg business flash. caroline: drugmaker shyer in talks to build back silva. -- back sold the the deal may be announced as soon as this week. after an takata surged newspaper report that japanese carmakers may provide support. they have been at the center of the biggest recall and history -- in history. ferrari starts trading on the milan stock exchange. the supercar maker was listed on the new york stock exchange in october. yesterday, fiat chrysler distributed its remaining shares to shareholders. -- more on those stories manus: thank you very much.
2015 saw the rise of drones,gies such as cars. ,nna: joining us now from paris what did we see under the christmas tree for the technology sector? >> it was under pretty much every christmas tree and flying around every household. drones were one of the hottest tech trends. that reflected on the christmas list. year for up and down drones in terms of regulation. that consumers would now have to register their drones in the u.s.. drones were predicted to be sold at christmas in the u.s. alone. consumer appetite was there.
atsaw a lot of drones christmas. that will keep going this year as we head into the consumer electronics show in vegas. manus: let's talk about that. what can we expect for the year ahead of part from drones? what can we expect? way it is at the expanding this year, there are 200,000 square feet, three and a half football fields. the big thing will be self driving or driverless cars. a law of the carmakers, gm, allergy, mercedes, and even volkswagen will show up in vegas to talk about what they have planned and when we will see driverless cars on the road. security some questions. we have seen some hacking incidents this year that will google be addressed, but
is saying they expect 10 million autonomous vehicles on the road by 2020. thank you very much. manus: you've come back in fighting form, haven't you? let's get a little more on the ferrari listing in italy. it is a big day for this brand. it joins the milan stock exchange. in terms ofreckon this move, a smart move? morning fromgood the milan exchange today. for murray separated from fiat chrysler for the first time --
ferrari separated from fiat chrysler for the first time. now worth almost 90% of what was worth fiat chrysler on the market when it announced the move. ferrari.cash from now we have to see what will be next. fiat chrysler will be a motor company. ferrari will be independent, but the loan -- but a loan. anna: what does this mean for fiat and ferrari? fiat -- ferrari, this is the beginning of the new year. all other carmakers are looking to combine and integrate. this move will help ferrari to grow. when ferrari was listed in new
, this is what they wanted. they say it will now be much easier. after theyrysler, got cash out of ferrari, the company is smaller. they are looking for a new partner. a great day. thanks for that. let's see where the stock trades. ferrari, bob? >> no, i haven't. manus: a smart move in terms of extracting value. at the kind of financial engineering that went on, you have your thoughts in terms of what has been done. market wasian stock
one of the best-performing stock markets in 2015 in europe. if you compare it to elite with spain last year, it outperformed by 20%. outperformed the year old stocks by a good 5%. italy outperformed the euro stocks by a good 5%. in terms of realizing value, yes, it makes sense. there are two questions. the first, what is the future for ferrari as an independent company? the other supercars are all largely owned by major groups. the one exception is aston is somebut there speculation as to whether it will be taken out for
restructuring. martins have a large number of mercedes-benz components. there is some speculation there. it is tough running an independent supercar company. it is better when you are a smaller part of a larger group. of fiat chrysler, we have a smaller group, but some very interesting parts, chrysler, jeep brand, increasing market share. fiat, the success of the fee at 500 range needs to be expanded. 500 range needs to be expanded. likewise, there's no way you can compare them with the range of bmws. to how to expand successfully that range, which is why there has been speculations of possible merger with another group. i think it will be very difficult. manus: let me ask you something
the medic for 2016 away from the individual sectors that we will return to discussing. 2016 big a story about number, all these things coming from left field. politically, things that weren't seen as likely to happen, and it is a probability. some of the right-wing politicians in europe, donald trump, is that something that is preoccupying you? 30%, 5%, those percentages are variables. ,f you look at political risks there's a lot of scope in 2016 for risk to upset markets. that we have to remember that donald trump, although it varies from state to state, is ahead in the opinion polls in the republican race.
i would personally be surprised if he gets it, but one can't ignore the opinion polls. you mentioned corbyn in the u.k.. it looks as though he will remain the leader of the labour party in the u.k. for this year, and possibly next year as well. what is worrying about that is you have to ask the question, does the u.k. have an effective opposition to challenge the cameron government. clearly the big risk for the you ok -- the u.k. is the eu referendum. haveld argue that markets still not focused in on the negative potential factors from u.k. exit. is still too early for the sterling market. 56%own poll has the number, concern about the u.k. exit. 13% are worried about the
buildup to the exit. it is there. >> i'm surprised those numbers are not higher. i think you have to worry about the exit. ont will be the impact foreign capital flows into the u.k.. what will be the impact on the u.k. straight position and its ability to trade with the rest of the european union. if you asked the question, have investors focus sufficiently on the risks of an exit, absolutely no. you want the vote done and the result known as soon as possible. >> yes, investors like certainty. if you have uncertainty, and we have clear uncertainty here, then there is that uncertainty discount built into the market. anna: thank you very much. manus: chinese stocks halted as they dropped over 7%, the csi 300.
happy new year. anna: welcome to the second hour of "countdown." let us remind you of what an eventful overnight -- new year, new roller coaster. chinese markets, the trading had to be closed early because circuit breakers kicked in. a lot of concern about the manufacturing data that came in weaker than had been estimated. today was the first day the circuit breakers were tested. manus: we have saudi arabia ands thing the rainy and -- representative.
london down three quarters of 1%. paris down 1.3%. this very immediate concern over china. there is still overcapacity, still concerned about china. that is what it comes down to. dissipate as he tries to quell some of the political tension between iran and saudi arabia. let's go to caroline hyde. caroline: chinese stocks trading has been halted for the rest of the day after the index plunged more than 7%. that was the first economic report from china this year.
the longest such streak since 2009. oil is trading higher this morning. tensions escalate between saudi arabia and iran. industry into ron -- in tehran was attacked. federal reserve vice chairman says it might be necessary for the central bank to increase rates. the financial markets are overheating. prices are too high and the economy is an elite reasonable situation -- is in a reasonable situation, it may be possible to try to use the interest rate to deal with what is happening to asset prices. caroline: for more on those
stories -- manus: trading in china halted earlier. the new circuit breakers kicked in. anna: chinese stocks are heading for their worst ever start of the year. manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month. good to see you, happy new year. it looks like a bad start to the new year from the chinese equity markets. year.py new the worst possible start to the year for china. sentiments toward the economy is already so fragile. they intervened across the board .
2016, starting on such a bad note. analysts are pointing to the weaker pmi data. it shows the pressures on the manufacturing sector ongoing. it is suffering from overcapacity. that is hardly a news story either. a demonstration of the wider fragile china. manus: this comes down to the is what is china going to be in terms of 2016? are they going to make this magical 7%? what is the reality view? itobably -- going forward,
will be similar. we do not know what the interest target is for this year. what we do know, and what is disappointing, china is not planning the kind of show time stimulus upticks it would have rolled up -- rolled out. it would be much more disciplined, much more piecemeal . they are talking about supplies and keeping growth on track. that disappointed some people. we will not be seeing a return to double-digit growth in china anytime soon. manus: thank you very much. anna: saudi arabia has cut ties with iran.
minute, we will be speaking with elliott gotkine. our reporter is in dubai for us today. -- how is iran likely to act? >> if we look at the way yuan has been interacting in the past 24 hours, there has not been any unified voice coming out of iran. we have had the supreme leader, closer to the hardline, coming out on having very strong comments. president, iranian who also at comments within hours, and he is tone -- his tone was much more moderate.
we are really saying this dual message coming out of iran. interesting is to see what will be the dominant voice coming out of iran. are we going to be seeing -- able to tone down and present a further escalation of this conflict. this is what we are likely to see in the short-term. let's get the view from our middle east editor, elliott
gotkine. give us the latest on the crude market. does that trump supply issues on the agenda? until people see some type of indication that output is going to be affected by this escalation of tensions between iran and saudi arabia, perhaps they will maintain their position. the reaction in the market is inevitable when you have opec's number one producer and saudi arabia, ratcheting up tensions between the two. two days of gains do not a rebound to make.
we need to have a perspective as well. quite some way to go and something serious is going to have to happen in order for something major to happen to those oil prices. thank you very much. a senior advisor at credit suisse is still with us. we talked about what is happening in china, the tensions. let's take a moment to think about the fed. whether --ng about are you talking about whether it would be good to use interest rates? >> when you get evidence of asset bubbles, whether it be in
real estate or in equity action --, the first you take micro measures. you tighten up, you direct intervention. what stanley was saying is that you then reach the stage when you have to hit those asset bubbles with the interest rate weapon. it is not the first line of attack, but it is a second line of attack. most central bankers just focus on the inflation target, the fed focuses on the inflation target plus the employment target. contrast to the ecb and the bank of england. a shift, weaying is
need to focus on asset bubbles. >> i have always taken the view, that was wrong. one cannot ignore asset bubbles. >> we have a few more issues to get to. it is a busy day, which kicks off the first few days of 2016. inflation numbers are due out tomorrow. on wednesday, we get the fed minutes for the december meeting. manus: will invalidate the unanimous decision to hike interest rates? year takeext, new
anna: welcome back, this is "countdown." caroline: a drugmaker is in advanced talks to buy arrival -- a rival. the deal may be announced as soon as this week. search the most in a year overnight. japanese carmakers may provide support for the company. it is involved in the biggest recall in history. for already starts trading -- --rari straight trading
more to do with not just the extra $2 billion that people of talked about. these are all rumors. difference,e made a prepared to give a cash element. we will crunch the numbers in between now and later on today to see how it works. we figure it out even before that. not classic tax in version. the irish have a very low tax rate. this is one of the drivers, don't you think?
>> this makes a business case, too. they bring in the biggest franchise out there. that is one of the diseases shire focuses on. this fits pretty well with their strategy. him n/a was a record -- m&a was a record year. -- where does it all fit in your thinking? >> i think you will see it remain at a very high level in 2016. that is largely due to very low borrowing costs. deals whento finance the corporate liquidity is that a high level.
cash flows in the former section -- remain powerful indeed. i cannot think of anything to reverse the m&a trends. case, farmersthe taking that place. >> if you look at the first announcement, these are 2015 deals. that will inflate the numbers for completed deals. m&a will remain a major theme for pharma. there are a lot of little
companies out there with really interesting drugs that would be quite nice to talk into. without too much disruption to anybody. manus: in the pharma sector, the big deals have already been transacted. much -- thank you very gentlemen, thank you very much. anna: we were talking about the fed earlier on. we were having this conversation of what the fed might do if they saw asset bubbles. do you see asset bubbles right now? >> not yet, no. -- it is high, but it is not stretched. we have been well above 20.
we do have pockets and we have had some problems in the i do notd market, it see investors in stretched positions and investors are still sitting on very high level of cash. they are not overleveraged and their asset position. are there any broad market asset bubbles today? the answer is absolutely not. there was so much shakedown and worry in the commodities space. to one of the issues, which is the fed, the fed thinks you'll see four rate hikes this year. the fact that we will see things
that 1.375% this year, the market says you are going to get -- >> i am pretty much with the market on this. we do not have any significant asset bubbles. the s&p is rich, but it is not stretched. there are a number of drags on growth, notably the strong dollar, the energy sector. it is very difficult to paint a scenario whereby american growth accelerates much above 2.5%. inflation creeping up, but it will be a slow process. headline inflation today, zero. possibly moving ahead to 1.5% by the end of the year.
in that environment, the fed will move very slowly indeed. where are we going to be at the end of 2016? i would be very surprised if we see an acceleration in monetary timing. anna: how much do you buy into that transatlantic divergence? >> there are four factors. the euro is undervalued and i more undervalued. dollar-euro probably goes down.
low commodity prices, in prices are collapsing. if i am a consumer with the european base, my profitability looks very positive. given that the ecb seems to be very frustrated with the pace of european expansion, i think it could ease further. we will not be talking about european austerity. i think fiscal policy has a positive impact on growth. i'm not that bullish on european equities. >> how bullish on the dollar are you? does the dollar rally continue? >> there is one major problem. in 2009, u.s. exports were increasing at an all rate of
close to 13%. exports arecan -- the strong dollar is having a negative impact on u.s. imports and the u.s. economy. that is why i think we are in the endgame of the u.s.-dollar strength. 104, and we102, have all of the issues with brex it and that leads to a weaker pound. anna: thank you very much for joining us this morning. great to get your thoughts. equity said for a lower open -- set for a lower open.
it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. >> welcome to "on the move". you are about to find out all the market stories on the first trading day of the new year. i am guy johnson. john, boom, we are back. what a start to the year. of got a little bit of sleep. -- i got a little bit of sleep.