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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  January 14, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EST

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francine: explosions in jakarta. three blasts tear through the indonesian capitol and the terrorism threat escalates again. european stocks fall again after a selloff in the u.s. and china. brent cruise follows wti below $30. terror flights and low inflation comforted the policy decisions for central banks as the bank of england prepares for its new decision. welcome to "the pulse," live from london. i'm francine lacqua.
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let's get straight to the markets. european stocks are falling for another day. this is after what some are saying is a very clear correction in the united states. the u.s. equity markets fell into a correction, meaning it lost almost 10% since the highest last year. i also wanted to show you the jakarta competent index. this is down from 0.5% after we saw the terrible blasts. you can see a quick check -- we will delve deeper into what the weakness may not mean for the boe, as this country is also wrestling with a referendum. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. : indonesian police say they strongly suspect today's attacks have links to islamic state. explosions and gunfire broke out in the center of the city, killing at least seven people, four of them believed to be terrorists.
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it marks the worst attack in the indonesian capitol since 2009. in the immediate aftermath, the rupiah extended losses against the dollar, and the index fell as much as 1.7%. both have since regained much of the declines. the jakarta cop as it is down by 8/10 of 1%. separately, the bank of indonesia cut its main interest rate for the first time in 11 months. the central bank says it is prioritizing a boost to this lagging economic growth. that was your bloomberg first word news. francine: thank you so much. we'll look at the implications of that, on what it means for a country already grappling with global commodity crisis. how does the current geopolitical market uncertainty seat into the setting of global monetary policy? few minutes we will be
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discussing the decision from the bank of england later on. also today, the ecb publishes minutes from the december meeting. we brought together a panel of experts. deutsche bank's chief u.k. economists. own martin gilbert. thank you for joining me. this is an incredibly busy day, and if is a start to the year. let me kick off with you, george. what we have seen as more doom and gloom. what does it mean for central-bank action? >> for the bank of england, for example, we still think it may be the time when the bank raises rates is becoming less and less likely. host ofe a whole reasons they should keep it on hold, whether it be low inflation, concern about terrorism, slower economic growth. all of those issues could keep the bank of england out. it could mean the ecb thinks about doing more policy easing when it comes to their meeting
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later this quarter. there are a lot of things that these things are influencing. -- there's ak, you counter argument saying that markets are spooked by that first dovish interest rate rise. how much truth is there in that? >> it's true. a lot of market participants think it was a justified, that the fed is moving away from that'sthe argument -- an odd reason to raise interest rates, and i think that is part of the undermining of confidence. francine: we have a lot to talk about, and we have to talk about whether the central banks even have power to fight inflation. ben, this is the premise for a lot of your research. that maybe we are looking at the wrong things when we discussed a mandate from the bank of england. >> yes. we recently published a report
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supporting that the bank of england should move to nominal gdp. this looks into what we have been doing recently. through the crisis, the bank of england looks through high inflation, through low-inflation. policye facto, is a where you say you can't look at only inflation, and when you have giant supply-side shocks, especially oil, when you have huge supply-side shocks, you need to consider other things, and that is the best way to formalize it. francine: under this extremely difficult to qualify, how should they measure terrorist threats? >> that's a hard one to do. a terrorist threat is a supply-side move, effectively. i think it is probably the kind of thing that central banks should leave alone. they should focus on the demand side of the economy. tighten things up if it gets too hot, boost things if it gets too
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cold. they shouldn't focus about whether we are getting worse or better overall. francine: ben, mark, and george will join us for the next half-hour. but first, that rrible news out of jakarta. in central jakarta has ended and the area has been cleared. three gunmen were among the dead and four others have been arrested. they strongly suspect they are linked to the islamic state but they are still trying to figure it out. joining us now from jakarta is keep lover. kieth lover. how much damage will this do to the indonesian economy? the indonesian economy is struggling to get off a low point. it's a pretty good low point. this is not something that is new. it is not something that wasn't expected. i think anyone who was investing
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in this market has written in this before. francine: do we see any political fallout? i know you believe that indonesia counterterrorism has done a good job. could they have done more? these types of attacks are extremely difficult to avert. >> that's correct. since december 13, there have been 23. that includes the number of chinese nationals, police have found explosives, they found a suicide vest, and they had a record of doing an extremely good task of tracking down groups before they reached the point of committing an attack. clearly, you can't maintain that sort of record forever. in this case, it appears very strongly as if this was a very amateurish attack, even though it was dramatic. the statistics we have at the moment is that five attackers
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died, with only two civilian deaths. as i said, while it was dramatic, it certainly wasn't a count,ccessful body if you are looking at this from a tactical point of view. francine: kieth, it's difficult -- we think there are links to the islamic state, this is something the authorities are pursuing, we don't know exactly at so we are hoping to have more news shortly. but indonesia is also the world's most populous nation. that has been battling islamic extremists since 2000. is this a turning point, or will we see many more of these sorts of attacks, and authorities will just have to prevent? >> it's more like a reincarnation, the last major attack was back in 2009, with two u.s. branded hotels attacked, nine killed. it's been very quiet since then.
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with the emergence of isis, daesh, the rhetoric has raised significantly. you've got the disaffected groups within society, and they do include a small percentage of people who are committed to the islamist cause, who want to see indonesia become a sharia state. they never received much support from the general public. but they are certainly there. as i said earlier, it will be very difficult for the police, however efficient they may be, to track every one of these. ais does seem to have been very daring attack, but not a particularly well-planned attack. so we would hope that if there are more, they will only be on this sort of level. francine: thank you so much. kieth loveard.
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we have to bring you breaking news on the currency front. the hong kong dollar dropped 0.2%. that means we are now seeing the biggest loss since 2003. he will have plenty more on the market moves and plenty more updates from jakarta. we were just hearing from the intelligence chief in indonesia, talking about these latest attacks. next, the chairman of barclays telling us that brexit would be bad for business. then, russia faces off with the ghosts of 1998 as sprint follows wti below $30 per barrel. russia's finance minister tells us that the country is at risk of a rerun of a global crisis. he will bring you that backsive, an, then we will go to talking about the bank of england. a panel of experts joining us on set. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." the city of london would be less than a significantly worse position if they left the eu. that is according to john mcfarlane, who spoke with me in an exclusive interview in his capacity as chairman of the city. have a listen. thing that businesses handle is uncertainty. of coarse, this has brought a significant amount of uncertainty about what would
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happen -- we don't know what the timing is. we don't know what the effect of negotiations are going to bring. we don't know what the outcome is going to be. in the event that there was -- there is a two-year period as to how you extract yourself in the situation. in particular for financial services, which is such a dominant sector in europe, it provides a lot of uncertainty. the truth of the matter is the rest of the world wants britain , the u.s. inthe eu particular. francine: what are the concerns? we had a report out yesterday arguing that the city would thrive outside the u.k. is there a case for that? >> look, i think the city of london will thrive. i think financial services in the u.k. will thrive, because it is such a large segment.
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the question is will it be much better or much worse? our opinion is it would be significantly worse. francine: why? >> because we run the risk -- we y, that we get this benefit from. my own company, which i am not really talking about today -- we don't have large businesses in europe, but we have very large activity related to europe in the city of london, and that is true of many of the organizations. many in london use london as the main access to europe, and we don't know what the impact of withdrawal would be on that. that was john mcfarlane in his capacity as chairman of city u.k.. let's bring in george berkeley,
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glenn southwood, and mark gilbert. gentlemen, thank you for staying around. when you look at the brexit debate, how should investors think about brexit and what it means for the boe? --k carney >> it is another reason not to move, a lot of laundry list explained earlier. one of the ways to think about brexit is to look back at this referendum, which got to the cliff edge becaus. this will be messier, nastier. it has much more political ramifications. the conservative party and how they will deal with it, you don't want to be holding the currency at a time when the government is in disarray. francine: george, back to your point that it looks less likely. we're not really going to have an interest rate hike for the end of the year, right? >> unless we see inflation
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starting to move up more aggressively. oil prices are going to be that, so it will push downward pressure. they could put upward pressure on inflation in the longer run, because as people have more money to spend, they go out and spend on corp. goods and services -- encore goods and core goods and services. look through it also when it is very low, because you could see some underlying inflation pressures coming through. >> what makes you take off this year as a rate rise? >> two things that the bank is not raising rates because of primarily are wages and prices. wage inflation has been very weak, it disappointed. it was on a rising trend and has now started to soften. inflation itself is lower because of oil prices. even though that is noncall, i
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think they will be reticent given that they have a mandate to raise interest rates when headline inflation is still below a level at which they have to keep working. they're not getting it right. francine: why have wage growth's not been going as fast as we expected? >> there are a lot of reasons. one of the reasons is the fact that the number of people coming into the labor force are in lower paying jobs. the wages are not mixed adjusted. you are not looking at like for like. looks like we have had a change in the relationship between unemployment and wages over the past few years. francine: when we look at inflation, whether we look at the bank of england are ecb, do they really have the power to change inflation at all in this kind of environment? >> yes. i think this bank of england could generate more or less inflation, if it were willing. i think its goal of getting inflation to 2% within the next two years, they are essentially
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keeping to that. they think that all of this pushes down inflation we have now are temporary, by which they mean supply-side. they think it is coming from things outside their control. they could do lots more qb if they wanted to, and i think they could create more inflation if they wanted to, and they would do so if we were at 0% or lower. if you decompose inflation into supply-sider demand-side, moves that look like inputs from abroad are driving it down. it looks at stuff like oil, not because people aren't spending, not because people aren't investing. about, they are worried rightly, the mandate to think of the supply-side. >> so doing a good job within the remakes of what they got. i think they could create inflation if they wanted to. francine: interesting. we look at central banks and we look at fx, and there is no bank --central
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but is there an ideal level? >> i don't think there is. might be welcome to stimulate some inflation. i want to put something different there. what do you do today? i think it is very hard to tick the box that says, yes, i'll give you another raise. given vote for a cut, what he has been saying in his speeches recently? the global backdrop could not really be worth. it's as bad as anything. to go back to as bad as it ever gets -- you might want to ask for a rate cut. >> i see the global outlook in terms of market out could absolutely worse, but when you think about the fundamentals underlying that, they are
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nowhere near as bad as some of the market moves which have been china has been responsible for. they are nearly as bad. -- aren't nearly as bad. francine: manufacturing was worse than expected, so we are seeing domestic pressure here in the u.k. >> for sure. when you look at economic growth, it has not been as strong as it was. 2014, the average growth rate was .7%. so far in 2015, the first three quarters, .4%. there are some signs that things aren't as strong. but we are still forecasting 2.5% growth. francine: so no chance of a cut? >> i'm sure there's at least a chance. i wouldn't be surprised if someone does vote for a cut. there are some obvious contenders. it's a risk. >> i think the obvious policy, if it was me, would be for more qe.
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i think these are things that are outside the banks' controls. -- thereed to movere's is no need to policy in any direction. francine: you think you he is working. -- you think qe is working. >> it's certainly not working in the eurozone. if you look at the options market, expectations of what the fed is going to do. at the start of the year, there was a 50% chance of the fed raising rates in march. this morning, 37% chance. which means there is more than a 60% chance you don't get that second fed rate increase. that is because people think the global backdrop has deteriorated. >> why would you say eurozone qe hasn't worked? since they announced it, we have seen the only inklings of a recovery we have ever had. if you like and all the empirical studies about whether qe has worked in the u.k. or
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u.s., you have seen substantial increases in gdp according to these studies. i find it very hard to say qe is a working. francine: a lot of research is saying that is because of lower oil prices, which means it is cheaper to manufacture, and qe only had an impact on fx. george, that qe only works during a financial crisis. >> i suppose my answer to that would be a typical economist answer. you don't know the counterfactual's. no one knows what we what have done. i think it what happens essentially worse. >> if we print enough money, there will eventually be inflation. but if you look at inflation expectations, if mario draghi says we are measured on our inicy's success or failure, terms of getting to 2% inflation, it is a failure. francine: ben? >> fairpoint. i would agree that we haven't achieved that goal.
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i think qb is clearly a step in the right direction, and if you do it better, say it is open-ended, and so on. if you say you'd promised to do enough to achieve your goal, and sticking to whatever it takes, you can always hit your target. i think what we have done in the u.k. and the u.s. shows how qe is clearly better. francine: thank you so much. a great chart and great conversation. such an economist, george. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic. nejra: goldman sachs is considered to be cutting fixed income traders, according to a person with with knowledge of the matter, who could come later this quarter with an industrywide revenue slump. the person said the investment bank will make a decision after
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evaluating client activity during the period. norway has bought a minority stake in arrival. -- in a rival. it accounts from most 12% of the stock. the deal increases statoil's indirect involvement. qatar-based al jazeera is shutting down its u.s. t television station. it will end operations by the end of april. the tv network, controlled by the qatar royal family, has struggled to build an american audience. that was your bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much. the stock six extending its losses this morning, falling to the lowest level since august. let's check in with mark barton. mark: global stocks are following, the msci dropping to its lowest level since september, the u.s. selloff prompting the decline. the shanghai composite at one stage today, when it was down by as much as 2.8%, was flirting
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with the bear market from its highs in december through the lows of today. we had fallen by 20%. that is some decline. the market at the end of the day did rise. this is the chart going back to june. also earlier today, the market fell below the lows following the slump in may, june, and july. it's been a fascinating day for the shanghai composite for a number of reasons. this is the hong kong dollar. this certainly has to be the currency. earlier, its biggest intraday fall against the u.s. dollar since 2003. the currency headed for its lowest close in over four years of sentiment. sentiment toward china worsens, more volatility could be on the way. and brent crude -- can i bring it up for you? here we go. brent crude, hovering around $30, francine. it fell below $30 yesterday for the first time since 2004. francine: mark, thank you so
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much. mark barton with your asset check. -- up next, the latest on the deadly explosion that rocked jakarta. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,
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and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20.
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it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. welcome to "the pulse" live in london. thelet's get straight to bloomberg first reviews. nejra: explosions have ripped through central jakarta killing seven people including four attackers. the blast occurred near the city's united nations office. it marks the worst attack and indonesian capital since 2009. in the aftermath of the attacks, the rupiah extended losses against the u.s. dollar and the
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composite index fell as much as 1.7%. both have regained some of those declines. bank indonesia cut its main interest rate for the first time in 11 smug. -- in 11 months. over concerns looser policy could trigger further currency weakness. francine: thank you so much. the and your nation strongly suspects today's attacks are -- the indonesia intelligence community strongly suspects islamic state. joining us is matthew henman, head at terrorism an analysis at ihs. how much of a threat is islamist extremists to asia? matthew: there has been a long history of insurgency in
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southeast asia. that threat has seem to diminish over the past few years with extremist organizations and places like indonesia, the philippines, malaysia, etc. ir capability has been degraded by the security forces. what we have seen over the past months, there has been a migration from places like indonesia to syria where they joined islamic state and other extremist organizations. what we're likely sing with the attacks in jakarta is the return of fighters from syria to link up with existing domestic extremist organizations like the m.i.t. to structure them and prepared to carry out these kinds of attacks, which present a qualitative increase from the kind of attacks we have been seeing lately in indonesia over
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the past sifive years. francine: are any countries immune to this? matthew: it's very hard to say. has been such a spectrum of fighters traveling from all around the world to syria. that you really cannot rule out the threat. very few countries can you say there is no risk of these kinds of attacks happening. capability to medicine across the world as obviously the operating environment in certain countries. some the much more conducive to launch attacks in. but certainly indonesia, philippines, malaysia are countries we have been tracking for a long time now, anticipating this kind of violence to take place. francine: what has been the response or the involvement of
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indonesia so far in fighting terrorism across the world? is this likely to step up their efforts? will make a difference if this is confirmed as an act of terror from i.s.? where have the ones that carried out the attacks been trained? matthew: indonesian authorities have been vigilant for many months now about the increased threat posed to domestic security indonesia. by the threat of returnees from syria by the threat of domestic extremists linked up with or communicating with militant extremists in syria. there was kind of a long security alert just before the christmas holiday period in the country that ended only a a few that wason january 6 heavily linked to syria, to islamic state.
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so they are well aware of the threat that is posed, the increased threat posed by the islamic state, by indonesia's fighting for the islamic state, by domestic extremist supported by and pledge allegiance to islamic state. francine: i know it is still early. our thoughts on with the family of those that lost lives. can you give us a sense of how you think the authorities have handle securities in jakarta and how they handled the attacks this morning? matthew: i think if you look at the way the attack was conducted and the casualty figures we know so far, bearing in mind you have four to five attackers with small arms and explosives, obviously reports are still unverified and unconfirmed as to whether they were suicide bombers among the attackers, but given the attacks were carried out in a busy shopping area of the capital, the fact that we
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are only looking at a confirmed two non-militants being killed shows that there was a fairly quick and effective security response to the attacks. there is still much more information to come out about potential failings in terms of identifying and tracking networks that may have been responsible for the attack, but with the information we have to hand so far, it looks like there has been an effective security response on the ground, at least initially to these attacks. francine: who do think indonesian authorities will cooperate more with? as we see the threat of terrorism rise from around the world. is there a global response that should be taken more seriously? matthew: yeah. i mean, one of the things we have seen emerge in the past 12- 18 months is islamic state toeading from syria to iraq
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north africa, asia, west africa, etc. it indicates that defeating islamic state cannot just be accomplished by recapturing its territorial holdings in iraq and syria. it needs to be taken on across the world. that requires a global effort against the group. it requires all governments which are affected, which is the majority, to put aside differences and work collaboratively and effectively coherent strategy, not just to defeat the islamic state militarily but ideologically undermine them and prevent further recruitment to their cause. francine: thank you for all of that analysis. matthew henman, head of analysis at ihs jane's. before you go, let's give you a quick market update. these terrible explosions in jakarta have had an impact on stocks in the region, especially on the jakarta and index. this is the picture from composite. down 0.5%.
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the stoxx europe 600. we are sliding lower on the back of the dow going into the correction. that means it lost 10% from the high of last year which was around november. you can see crude at 30.82 in new york. pound, we are expecting a boe rate decision later one. the finance minister tells bloomberg could face a crisis like that of 1998 if it does not adjust the budget based on $50 oil. we will go live to moscow with the bank of russia's first deputy governor up next. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live from london headquarters. russia has been hit by the plunge in curdrude prices. ryan chilcote has spoken exquisitely to the finance minister. he began by asking him about the future of the ruble. to make up for the budget shortfall? the ruble toant change significantly. we are always in favor of stability. we adopt a budget to the ruble's rate by the balance of payments. thinks thet squeeze
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finance minister might start selling some of the dollars it has in its reserve fund like it did just about this time last year to buy rubles to plug your budget deficit. is that something you are thinking about? >> last year, we took a step of selling a portion of our reserve from the treasury accounts. we believe the ruble was -- which depreciated strongly at the beginning of the year, will strengthen later. there is no need to support the rulbblwe now. they are the government's. we have enough dollars to pay out that in the coming here. we think there is no sense in taking any steps to stabilize the ruble. the ruble is absolutely appropriate for the situation now. neither the treasury nor the government have any need to enter the foreign currency
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market. francine: the russian finance minister speaking exclusively to ryan chilcote in moscow with the bank of russia's deputy governor. great job there. take it away with the russian bank deputy governor. ryan: one things that's pretty clear from the russian finance minister is they seem to be comfortable with the ruble exchange rate. not least because the weaker the vrable the better for the russian budget because it sells they turn it into rubles. ufor joining us. i want to start by asking you about the ruble. what concerns is depreciation recently you have in terms of inflation, because that can knock up inflation. >> think you very much. inflation rates have increased because of depreciation. and we will try to meet them and to probably update our
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forecast a little bit before the next financial policy meeting at the end of the month. ryan: at what point does the ruble's weakness become a problem? is 90 an issue when it comes to inflation? >> we don't really think about, in these terms. we do not really have any levels which we control for exchange rate but we look at the past e ffect when we adjust our monetary policy in order to stabilize inflation and bring it down. ryan: your target level is 4% next year. that is what you are hoping to hit. is that still realistic, or do you think that might be pushed back in this renewed ruble weakness? >> well, we think that it's still realistic to reach our medium-term target by the end of the next year with -- the
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probability we will do that. monetary policy works with a lag . but it is about a one and a half year lage. we still have some ime. ryan: what does the weakening ruble mean for breaking down -- for bringing down rates? you indicated you want to bring down your key rate from 11% by may. is that still doable? >> well, we recently indicated into different risk, economic risks, and look whether inflation follows -- and metl do it only if all those preconditions. as i said, inflation risks is recent.
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it means the path of monetary policy will become tighter than we originally predicted. ryan: a lot of people would like below 10%es fall to in this country. do you think there is any chance of that happening in 2016? situation see how the is developing. i should say that there are other people who really want ra tes to be adequate as well. e interest move in th of both depositors and creditors when we take our decision. ryan: and the fact you are in a recession. your worse case in error for the oil price stands about 35 bucks a barrel. now we are at 30. how does policy change with oil prices where they are now? >> you know, our scenario is that oil will stay at 35 on average for the next three years. that oil will be
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volatile. sometimes it will fall to 40. -- fall to 30, or up to 40. we believe that this -- it's u sable in these kind of situations. ryan: yesterday you said the ruble is not so volatile for the central bank to intervene. yet the ruble is the worlds third most volatile currency. at one point does the ruble get too volatile? a the thing is that oil is fundamental for the ruble. oil is much more volatile than the ruble. right now volatility of the ruble has come down significantly. riskis why we say that
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to financial stability is fairly small. ryan: talk to me about your reserves in the central bank. where do you see them ending the year? d.c. any value in -- do you see any value in raising reserves this year? >> that depends on the situation but in this scenario which you talk about our forecast did not include any increase in reserves. ryan: everybody is talking about perhaps the government coming to you someday and tapping into your reserves. in any case, i'm sure they recognize her independence. >> yes, we are as dependent -- are independent by the constitution. ryan: there you have it. a little bit concerned you heard from the first up he had of the russian central bank. she is a little concerned about the ruble's weakness creating inflationary pressures that were not there before the beginning of the year. that obviously having some
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effect on monetary policy. francine: nice trying to some breaking news there. pairedilcote in moscow up next, barclays john mcfarland, the chairman speaking u.k. gives as citi us his take on the challenges facing the financial sector. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live on bloomberg tv and
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radio, streaming on your tablet phone and bloomberg.com. the already season in u.s. banks kick off today with jpmorgan numbers. we take time and in exclusive interview, i spoke to john mcfarlane in his role and therman of citi u.k. about challenges faced by the sector in the year had pretty said the issue of capitalization is one the banks have put behind them. >> for banks, i think we know seven years after the crisis, nine years from the beginning of the crisis, i think that is a done deal. the we have seen capital requirements. thdrere is no output pressure on output requirements coming from governments, organizations shru nk in order their capital ratios are now adequate. i think we have broken the back of that. i do not really see that being the influence.
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us, think, of course for the strength of the real economy is the major thing. we're only the good is the economies we operate in. then, of course, that could be influenced but it will not be this year. it could be influenced by europe. francine: what is the one thing that surprised you the most? is there something that goes to u.k. youience of the are surprised about by the resilience of financial services in general? >> one thing that did surprise me is the global financial crisis was not really, it was a north atlantic disease. not a global disease. it did contaminate the rest of the world but it is essentially was europe, the united kingdom, the united states. the other surprise in some ways was the depth or the consequences of the financial crisis on the u.k. and europe. i mean, we have still got banks, and banks in particular
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european banks, big ones anyway, still recovering from the crisis seven years afterwards. many of us are trading the discount book value. francine: why is it laggin? because the u.s. dealt with a quicker. >> i think they dealt with a quicker. i think the impact on the banks itself -- the banks themselves was much more severe. those investment banks in the u.s. particularly, it's a very large capital market. 10 times the capital market size of the united kingdom. therefore, if you are a major player in that economy, which is in the relatively good hands, then that is a fantastic foundation not only to be successful in the domestic economy in the u.s. but also to springboard and take a long view of other markets. the dominant players in investment banking in europe are all-american.
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globally, the americans are dominant. francine: that was john mcfarlane, the chairman of barclays talking about banks. we also talked about brexit. the stoxx 600 and europe is extending his losses falling to the lowest level since august of last year. let's check in on markets with mark barton. mark: have a look at the shanghai composite. this is the chart going back to may. you saw the peak. down that months, we came to august 30 eight, by the way, at one point we were as low as the lows following the summer. we also fell 20% from the december highs. the shanghai composite did briefly -- with the bear market with a 20% decline. it seems the government was propping up the stock market, sunday at higher at the end of the day. that is one chart that is fascinating. this is another chart that is fascinating. we saw the biggest intraday
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decline in the hong kong dollar since 2003, which is heading for its lowest close since 2015. fortunes seem to be linked to chinese assets, concerns about china's economy way not only on the yuan in recent weeks but on hong kong assets as well. brent crude is higher. earlier today, dropped for the ninth consecutive day. the longest losing streak since july 2014. it did earlier today fall by 30 -- to $30 a barrel. it did yesterday fall below $30 a barrel for the first time since early 2004. the global blut has been confirmed by latest stockpile data out of the united states. it is another grim day, francine. francine: it certainly is. there is a great note which i highly recommend to read which says all this gloom, may be the only option is to buy some euro s. for our viewers, it is
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"surveillance". i will be joined on set by tom keene. he's here. talking to enter wilson of goldman sachs and former chancellor of the exchequer lord lamont. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world.
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francine: explosions in jakarta. three blasts tear through the capitol as the terrorism threat escalates again. european stocks fall again after a selloff in the u.s. and china. brent crude closed below $30 for an 11 year low. the terror threats and low inflation complicate the policy decisions of central banks, as the bank of england repairs for its decision. good morning, this is "surveillance." tom keene joins us. it's all about risk, tom, and

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