tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg January 14, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EST
from bloomberg world headquarters here in new york, good afternoon. i betty liu. here is what we're watching at this hour. here comes the rally. stocks are gaining the most in a month. energy shares are leading the market higher. our stocks finally turning a corner in this rough 2016? skipping out, gopro. sales are dropping 15% as competition heats up. can the company get into new products? what about a gopro drone? big earnings from wells fargo, citigroup, blackrock. a lot like what jpmorgan did this morning. we are about an hour away from mcleod debts the close of -- from the close of trade. is kind of like the
inverse of what we saw yesterday, that we closed near the lowest in this action yesterday. right now we are working toward the highs of the session as all major averages gain. and as act is getting the most here. downer, but debbie yes, we are seeing the strong rally today but it does not put much of a -- much of a dent. i am looking at the s&p 500. here you see what happened this january. even with today's gains, still down 5.5 percent so far. the third straight january that it is lower and it looks like it will be the worst january going although it back to 2009. the worst month since last august when we had a big selloff in the markets. yes, things are higher today. back as well.g it is up by another 2.3%.
weot of this is technical as reach levels when i comes to those stocks and potentially oil. that is why we are seeing some of the big oil names leaving. big cap oilof the stocks are doing well including exxon mobil, the only member of the dow yesterday gain the end of the session as oil is up yesterday even as stocks were down. chevron up as well. we are seeing the etf that tracks the us duration production companies hire. we are seeing a number of companies snapping recent losing streaks. acquisition for equity was not going through, bouncing back in a sharp fashion today. down for six straight sessions today. copper and gold should be falling. also produces oil. those three commodities have been pushing the stock down.
chipotle mexican grill continuing a rebound that began yesterday on more positive analyst commentary. it looks like some investors are coming back in. thank you. mark crumpton has more from our news desk. mark: turkey's prime minister says tanks in on true -- and artillery's have attacked in iraq in syria. the retaliation for this week's suicide bombing that killed 10 tourists. he says the military carried out 500 strikes that carry extremist positions on the border with syria and along a turkish camp in northern iraq. iso says is behind a deadly attack in indonesia. a begin with a suicide bomber inside a starbucks. other attackers opened fire outside and set off more bombs.
t those people are killed along with five of the attackers. iran said today it has met a key demand of the nuclear deal with the west. the core of the nation's only heavy water reactor has been removed. international inspectors will verify that here the nuclear deal inspires iran to end its ability to make nuclear weapons -- nuclear weapons if it wants -- ben carson says his campaign finance chairman has resigned. was under scrutiny for lavish spending. he helped cars and raise millions and has presided over an operation known for exuberant spending. carson has slipped in recent polls. he lost his campaign manager and communications director last month. evenotive tech make him sooner than previously thought. the department of transportation announcing new plans today to speed up the rollout of self driving cars. regulators will allow automakers
that can demonstrate they have a safe, autonomous vehicle to apply for exemptions to certain rules as part of the new approach. the national highway traffic safety administration will it -- will issue guidelines on fully autonomous vehicles in the next six months. the news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. as julie mentioned earlier, stocks are higher today, having their best rally in over three months. strategy u.s. equity -- strategist at citigroup joined to give perspective on the market and the broader economy. >> credit conditions have been shaky since early november. a tightening in credit conditions for commercial and business loans. that was the biggest shock
across. we have seen a lot of disruption in the high-yield market. tends to be resource oriented. i would say the rest of the bond market is ok in the high-yield world. broad survey data was kind of worry some. on the other side, you saw the national federation, business survey data, small businesses not getting credit. when they start to have problems about a year later, if not longer than a year later, the economy runs into trouble. ok.economy seems to be they are very fair. you almost get a little fdr like and start thinking, there is nothing to fear but fear itself. there is a secondary aspect, the feedback loops. do corporate leaders see their
stocks banged up, saying the market is seeing something we do not see? that one a lot. >> is an bifurcation a good thing? it gets us back to fundamentals. when we look at the markets we have seen over the last few years. high-yield, everyone ran into the asset classes before specific credits or even sectors. it is a positive to do that. oil pricesook, if are at $100 or $30, very different cash flow. fair.s 100% the high-yield market tells us something will go wrong somewhere else. find people who make those andents to be alarmist often deeply inaccurate. watched some of these very which i think have
seriously misleading consequences. months ago, we met a series of federal reserve governments come out and speak in the last four weeks. none of them have given the market any comfort. that is a big change. 12 months since the s&p shocked the market. it seems they have changed their attitude somewhat toward markets. the ecb as well. >> we could sit there and say the central banks come in to we are inquidity when a crisis oriented environment. morethe job growth and portly, i know people are out there saying the 292,000 jobs we saw last month was more about history as a lagging indicator of the future, look about net hiring expectations. keyncredibly consistent
point. for 40 years, an incredibly consistent lead indicator for the unemployment rate by 12 months. 85% of all new hires come out of small businesses. i will pay a lot of attention to them telling me especially because the unemployment rate comes to fall a year later. the fed does not have to come in and sit there and say we're coming to the markets. it is not their job to control markets. that is more investors. investor has -- investors have to have more than one day or one week myopic. a lot of things going on in the world. that is frustrating. i get it. is the fundamental environment ok? it is ok. it is not super but it is ok. as a result, it should be looking at unemployment rates in those kinds of phenomenon. i know there is a lot of debate about whether they are right or
wrong. i am happy i am not a fed governor. betty: it is a tough job. know, majoryou averages are at session highs and the dow is now up over 300 points. speaking about jobs and the -- the, the market republican presidential candidates will debate tonight in south carolina. the world's's largest business trade organization, earlier i donohue.h tom who said policies are hurting the economy. >> we were going to do something about reasonable tax policy. piling on, which the president promised again yesterday, which
is just choking the american economy. we will be major players in the election trying to make sure they understand the need for the american business community which they should see as a solution to their problem and that they vote accordingly. >> meanwhile, donald trump sat down with with all due respect and told us the movement can be compared to ronald reagan in the 1980's. trump: reagan also one. i have not been in that position yet. we will see what happens. i cank the closest thing think of is reagan but i do not think it is the intensity we have. betty: we will catch the full interview on with all due respect at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. much more ahead in the next 20 minutes. want to buy shares before the ride becomes public question mark morgan stanley offering that chance to the top clients.
300 points right now. energy, oil prices also closing at pretty much the high of the session. -- andces and the sox energy stocks, the s&p is also gaining ground and the s&p is at the high of the session. we are just about 45 minutes away from the closing bell. at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. firstng to export the liquefied national gash -- natural gas a delay from its preview -- previous estimate. recently discovered instrumentation issues will take a few weeks to fifth -- to fix. back down comes after they said wednesday and unsolicited bid from microtek technology -- a superior proposal sign last year. it is said to have notify dialog
that the board plans to terminate the merger. because of the microchip offer submitted last month will succeed. that is your bloomberg update. stocks are rallying big times today, u.s. benchmarks tumbled more than 7% since the beginning of 2016. after ending 2016 pre-much unchanged. the slowdown continues as we continue to use big declines in the stock market. tory,ith the answer is also starting a podcast on the u.s. economy. tory, water people telling you, and the podcast is the bloomberg benchmark podcast. >> right. we have been around since august. a lot of catching up to do and a lot of episodes to listen to. to make suret people listen to it. what are people saying about the podcast about whether the
markets are reflecting the economy? >> right. we had a great stock reporter on the show this week and we talked marketis the stock preceding an economic downturn or is there more potential to cause it? the re--- the relation is a little more complicated. market,s see the stock gas prices, paychecks, and those are the main economic indicators they pay attention to. when they see already -- see already, -they are- see all red -- inre is a lot of volatility the stock market. if the economy works that way, we would be in a lot of trouble if it were just up and down all the time. betty: it absolutely would be. economists, you
hear more and more saying the risk of a recession is higher now than in the u.s. >> that is right. we had a story out today a few minutes ago about economists, the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at about 19%. that is the highest since february of 2013. it seems the stock market jitters out there are starting to seep down into the economists psyche and possibly even the consumer psyche. thank you so much, tory. make sure to catch her podcast. you can find it on the terminal on itunes and sound cloud. morgan stanley's lobbyist clients got first dips at uber, yet to be listed. they are giving a slew of warnings about the company before buying into it. with more, julie.
first off, how much do you need to have in order to access buying these shares of labor? four morgan stanley, $250,000. you have to be worth somewhere around $10 million. bank of america is charging more. around 100 million and invest at least one million into the company. this is the wealthiest one. noty: how come they're giving much information? is it is not to say that maybe once you say yes, you are in, you could ask for more financial 200 90 pagebut in a document, there is no information on net income thomas sales, anything of that sort. just a bunch of risk for you to look at. are they allowed to do this? it seems awfully a big red flag on corporate governance. in any case, did you learn
anything new about the risk over? is ae of the biggest risks possible delay of the ipo. if you have anything like economic downturns or something like that, that is a big risk in terms of delaying it or getting it acquired by someone else. another interesting one is we have been hearing a lot about whether those drivers are actually employees or independent contractors. there have been independent lawsuits. that would be a huge cost for uber. not including drivers. that would be substantially higher if you had to include all of them. thousands of drivers not just here but all around the world. thank you, julie. essentially over offering to the wealthiest clients. still ahead, stocks are rallying today. see.ime as you can the options insight is next. ♪
betty: welcome back. stocks are rebounding in a major way following the selloff yesterday. the s&p is having the best day in four months. julie hyman is standing by with how the options market is trading all of this action. tim, andining me is joining me out in chicago, good to see you. what are you seeing in the options market that gives you any insight as to whether the rally is just a snap of a one-day event, or is it something that will be a little more sustained? >> i think it is more of a snap back. we didn't see the vix explode to the upside like we normally would. today we are not seeing the vix .oming down
i think everyone is position squaring by not adding two positions. i think it will be ranged bound until further notice to we might need a big right through, that 1880 support before people really get nervous. >> i know you are not just looking at the vix itself but it is a term structure of volatility. in other words, different dates of volatility. what does that tell you? >> absolutely. yesterday, we would normally see the term structure really steep with short-term and volatility jumping up big in the longer term. today, it has not reverted back that much here a lot of complacency in the options market giving the selloff and given that we are going into the earnings season. it will probably meander is lucky options guys are saying.
you are looking for a trade going into the earnings season. it is essentially a call spread. >> exactly. i am positioning above that resistance level. used to be support on the s&p 500 etf. selling the february 200 calls, buying the 204 calls for protection. are still around 24 monthly standard deviation is a 7% move with the vix around 14 where it was now not too long ago. it was only about a 4% move. the sameble to get risk reward trade-off. i do not expect the market to go to new highs. earnings have been tooled down. then following along with market we are again meandering around the range for the time being. it to how big a risk of
this view that earnings will be a positive catalyst for stocks? i do not think we will see the multiple expansion. the fed raising a quarter point took away the multiple expansions. they have already tooled down estimates. evenwas not a cheap market at these levels. the higher levels, looking at somewhere around six teen on a forward basis. certainly not a cheap market. been brokenface has as well. big momentum stocks. i think it will be tough to make new highs. thank you so much fear talk about options on the sp y. more bloomberg markets next. ♪
mark: an emergency meeting of the united nations security council. the government want attacks on acuity towns lifted so 4000 people can get humanitarian aid. a prosecutor said a french with a high school students looked way by a deadly avalanche is in police custody. investigation has been open for involuntary manslaughter. .hree people have been killed two were students and the third was believed to be a ukrainian steer. critics have failed to muster enough support to acquire a vote on an investigation it could have led to impeachment. house lawmakers voted 96-50 two to in definitely postpone debate. three winning tickets were sold in last night's record 1.6 billion dollar powerball jackpot. the stores that sold a winning ticket would be rewarded as
well. a 7-eleven in california would get $1 million. a public's grocery store it in florida would get $100,000. an unidentified store in the small tennessee town of mumford would get $25,000. just because you did not win the big prize, look closely before you toss that losing ticket away. nearly $2ficials say billion in prize money goes unclaimed each year. global news 24 hours a day. betty: i have to respond to that. [laughter] how long did you stare at your ticket? eyes hurt. my abigail was looking at hers, too. betty: we are still here because we did not win. there are some winners here for the stock target bulls. we are about 30 minutes away from the close of trade. abigail doolittle is live at the nasdaq. soaring higher.
yesterday was one of the big losers. abigail: yes. a lot of volatility at the nasdaq. stocks were down sharply earlier. now trading sharply higher. its bestq is having day in four months driven largely by biotech. biotech, -- biotechnology index is up 4.1%, having its best move since august 9 of last year. the top biotech name today after presenting at the jpmorgan health care conference this week followed by -- upgraded to a buy rated and research initiated coverage with a buy rating. even so, the nasdaq technology index is still down about 13% year to date. it is hard to know whether the selling is over or if this is the brief reprieve. of theake a look at one worst performing stocks today at the nasdaq and the big story. gopro shares have plunged after
a preannounced fourth quarter. the company said revenues were to come in about 15% light of what was estimated. also a 7% staff reduction. a bit surprising but completely in line with the ongoing story here. . 80%stock is down about since last august and trading about half its value of its ipo price. and half.ically cut thank you come abigail. as she was just talking about, you might not have wanted to put a gopro camera on the company shares. you might have gotten vertigo ,ecause it has a downward slide kind of like seeing downhill with that camera. let's ask cory johnson about what is going on here. what is happening with gopro?
i think that would be an awesome gopro. flying off rocks. is a mess ofding gopro's own making. they set guidance quite high for a quarter they could not achieve. they denied the impact of the competition, which is surely a lot worse than what they told investors it was going to be. afterhe results came up the close today, it was not just .elow estimates it was not even just a lot lower. it was lower than a previous year. it is a business that is shrinking. it looks like what it has been all along it another consumer electronics company. company, ave media not a maker of drones. they have talked about drones and having a media company. they have not been able to
fulfill the promises. even if they do, they'll come to a crowded market where the markets are increasingly low. at the consumer electronics show, it seemed like everyone had a drone. unique that they could launch other higher-margin businesses on it, specifically media. it seemed like it was always a fantasy. we have not seen the evidence. sellingseen insider before the collapse of the stock that followed all year. on top of that. betty: another stock dropping is twitter. the new lows here. do they have to contend with, maybe they are a tweeting platform and that's all they
are? cory: while one might have decided to not listen to the analyst, twitter is a different story about what is going on in the broader markets. it is a company that has not performed or created a massive amount of cash flow. that has not necessarily been their goal. at a time when markets are looking at what has been delivered for us with the notion there is a greater as a body of an economic slowdown today than two lease ago, the canary in the coal mine for the recession is always transports and advertising. and advertising dependent model with not a big amount of cash flow, not profitable, really at $25 per share or $19 per share, in expectation a great things will happen with the notion there is greater risk , one might imagine why a market might move away from a stock like twitter. betty: what is the answer for twitter? jack dorsey has been there for
few months. have not seen the execution on the new product. what is their answer? cory: they have fundamentally got to deliver accelerated growth both in terms of, if not in terms of the users, which they have not grown in the u.s. for two orders in a row, or international growth at a very tepid pace, they will have to show a lot of growth in terms of the number of ads they serve in the revenues. they will try to change the story. are a long way from free cash flow with twitter. let's talk about a company not as sexy as twitter but a gopro, arguably even more important. intel. they are reporting after the bell. i find intel extraordinarily sexy. really? betty: now i know your taste. cory: you know exactly my type. -- nie
intel is coming out with a quarter per we will learn a lot with the quarter that guides you. the companies trying to expand the data center. all the things they're doing on the web is coming from servers somewhere intel is trying to get inside of. they have an acquisition that is closed in the last quarter. how much faster the business can grow with it. they are contending with an thatssive slowdown in pc even intel did not predict, the disaster of pc sales. still more than half of revenues. we will get a sense of that. pc sales in the fourth order were down 10%. if that is true for intel, that could be a big problem for the company. we will be looking for signs of growth in the data center. prayingl, you will be that they will be able to gain market share in a rapidly declining market for personal
computers. they will bring the sexy back. i know it. betty: isn't there a song by that title? cory johnson will be interviewing stacy smith. much more is ahead in the next 20 minutes. oil prices did rebound today but are still down about 60% so far. at how slumping oil prices impact the outlook for inflation. jpmorgan kicked off the bank earnings season this morning with then shares up on that news. can other banks will suit? a quick look at the market stocks, giving up some of the gains we saw a half hour ago. ♪
some: time for a look at of the biggest business stories in the news right now. as 23%.ell as much fraud agents raided renault as part of an investigation into vehicle emissions. fiat chrysler is nine allegations to encourage her viewers to faulty support sales released to the public and investors. -- wsuit claims and then canceled sales the next day. you will not notice it if you're headed for the -- economic according to ubs, prices for holiday homes are down as much as 15% in the last three years. blame a building boom at ace -- and a stronger swiss franc.
haves for vacation rentals helped steady anywhere from five-evan times the normal rate. bloomberg's newsflash update. traders are assessing the market route with an ongoing deflationary pressure. what is the outlook for u.s. inflation? it is one of the things we will talk about in the next hour. joining us is the coanchor, joe weisenthal. what are people saying about the linkage? intoif you remember going the year, 2015 was another year in which inflation surprised the downside. economists on the show and in general, the perdition was that inflation would rise to the upside and the reasoning was simple. if oil would just stabilize this year because the base effect where the former dropped from over a year ago would fall of
the reading, on a year-over-year basis, inflation was hard to pick up. as we have seen, inflation has continued to foot -- to plunge. that does not look good for the moment for the economist who predicted this would be the year. has anyone tried to figure out what is going on exactly? >> that is the rig debate. a whole energy thing and people are debating is this a supply or a demand story? realistically it is probably some of both. central bankers hope it is just a plot. if it is a demand thing, that would mean the economy is worse than people think. betty: is anybody worried about inflation anymore? not really, right? joe: there are always the sort of info -- inflation people who are worried about it forever. change their tune because they do not look at actual data. they have an ideology. there are still people pointing out the core measures of
inflation, when you strip away certain things, when you try to strip away energy effects and other things, are still firmed. i do not think it is necessarily the case we do not completely have throw a expectations for inflation but headline inflation right now as we start the year, it does not look like it will bounce back. there are obviously prices still in rent. constant.een the other thing is if you exclude manufacturing and commodities and look at service measure,, there is a services inflation at energy, it feels like you are stripping away a lot. but there are presently economy, not internationally exposed, where inflation has been running pretty solid lately. the argument is that represents the true stage of inflation once the other transitory factors disappear. and central the fed bankers have to be banking on. betty: all right.
thank you, joe. coming up on the program today, peter ship -- peter fisher is the senior director of a black rock institute. also a former treasury under a secretary. closing trades are just a moments away. gains are giving up their . they are finding some footing, at least when it comes to the dow. ♪
better than competitors with strong sales in those appliances and wearable devices. fitbits and things like that. markets are closing in about 10 minutes and stocks look like they're closing higher. julie hyman is watching the indexes. we came off of recession highs. bete: it looks like a safe we will be higher at the close. if you look at the major averages, the s&p was up more than 2%. it is now of 1.8%. .olding steady the question is how sustained will the rally be? take a look at oil prices. rebound has been the order of the day. instead of a fundamental change in sentiment driving the gains today. you are seeing oil prices up by about 2%. have beenhe big gains
in energy and materials and commodity related stocks. exxon mobil rising today. chevron's rising today. at some was the only up stock in the industrial average. companies coming back after six straight days of losses. streak,quite a losing up 12% today. how about chipotle? that stock is rising once again. also just seeing a little bit of improvement in sentiment after the company presented at a conference this week. large tech technology coming back. a lot of weakness recently. taught these stocks had -- strong 2015's and then were falling in 2016. the rebound is not for everyone. gopro most notably tumbling today after giving a week revenue forecast for its fourth quarter. reemphasizing already what is a
bearish case by many on gopro, that it is a one product company and cannot duplicate success. and a chip maker gopro, we are seeing concerns trickle down .nto fit bit as well >> thank you so much, julie hyman at the market desk. time for a closer look at banks. jpmorgan reported earnings that beat analyst estimates. the company disclosed -- disclosing a lower than expected surcharge that put it at a disadvantage for other banks. joining us with more on the other sectors, bank analyst josh. is there anything to celebrate? josh: what is to celebrate is there is still room to cut on the expense side. the bigger question is what is the macro outlook? that becomes the key question for 2016. will define everything from
equity trading to m&a activity. question isss the can i cut costs fast and well enough to balance. >> exactly. how much it is deteriorating matters. sohave seen the banks reliant since 2011 on commercial and industrial loan demand. ist stuff they are holding 3.5 year floating-rate. rising rates will hurt some of the worst of those credits as we energyeady seeing on the side. for the first time, we're seeing them increase in revisions. the question is how quickly they will have to increase that. betty: can we measure that in advance #>> we cannot really because it depends on the spread outside the energy sector. this is the first cycle in history where our health just companies have been able to access capital markets directly, locking in long-term low rate
debt. a lot of the growth the banks have seen is really much smaller midsize as nurses and frankly a lot of riskier credits. the question becomes, do we see deterioration in that and with them having seen 50% growth since 2011, if we end up seeing deterioration of credit, where does the growth come from on the lending side? betty: it seems that a lot of what it's. why did you buy a bank? >> i'm not sure there is a reason why you would. i think the only reason you would buy one of the big ones is withr you were comfortable cost-cutting, you felt the macro environment internationally was table as or improve, or you had indications or some maybe theyng that would reconsider getting rid of something, as we just saw metlife announced, their banks are obviously very different than insurance companies.
at some point, i expect there will be an increasing chorus calling for the bank to think about what our non-core businesses, and sell them off. betty: you hear a lot of pressure on aig to sell their assets as well. that is a field day for distressed investors. is theother piece regulators, especially the fed, have done a good job pushing risks out of the bank and into the markets and the real economy, that that ends up being the market opportunity, 12 and 18 months from now. there will probably be a lot of distressed credit out there. the healthiest of our companies are flushed with cash. that is on the other side of the next wave. betty: talk to me about the markets and how you feel about the market? it is a big side. the fed has not done itself a
favor. it has created a lot of uncertainty and boxes of in. zero rates for too long leads to the types of problems we're seeing. theing out of it without damage is difficult and i think the markets are picking up on it. a reason we look at the jpmorgan's earnings, we saw weak equities. that lower aspect energy prices should get people spending. it is offset on the other side by higher health or lost. more importantly, i think the volatility is starting to share the wealthy investors. the past quarter. i think the question is, will you see the money come back on the sidelines or see the money needed to flow out? the volatility in the market uncertainty will probably not be helpful. betty: what makes you certain? >> we have seen it offset by
rising health care costs. we are also seeing a decline in spending on the upper end. it really bolsters the concern that we cannot rely on the average consumer and the wealthy consumer who has in in high branded products, really not spending the same way we had hoped today. thank you so much. that is it for bloomberg markets. what did you miss an market close is next. we are rapidly coming off of our high in the session. we will he where we close in just a few minutes. ♪
>> i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" higher,stocks closing s&p getting the most in six weeks. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" the price of oil and one long-term chart. get ready for the havoc. we begin with markets. whiplash anyone? back with bouncing his much as 330 points. like it, butel stocks have rallied three times. joe: it does not feel like a week unchanged. the market fell a lile