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tv   Asia Edge  Bloomberg  January 18, 2016 10:00pm-11:01pm EST

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is under pressure and pledges more help and support. and then started to give up games. asia's benchmark has still only risen once this year. flicking the switch. iran giving the order to boost production as sanctions are lifted. awe. and rio tinto says they will scale back the pace of expansion. in a movebalancing from property to tourism. a special report from the slopes on "asia edge." haidi: and i am keeping an eye on the asian markets today. we are seeing a variety of reactions across asian markets. shanghai is holding steady. if we manage to hang onto those
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gains, it would mean chinese markets headed for their only two-day gain so far this year. that gives you an indication of hasbad this regional rout been. elsewhere, a number of markets giving up gains and falling into negative territory. asia showingeast quite a bit of weakness. philippines extending declines after seeing gains early on. aussie stocks holding steady despite some weakness in the aussie dollar. angie? angie: china's economic growth engine sputtering as gdp and other monthly numbers this estimates. stephen engle joins us for more on that. the premier did say yesterday the economy is under pressure. he was proven right. stephen: absolutely. he is not kidding. look at the picture -- the pressure that they had in 2015
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and the beginning of this year. they had the big stockmarket rise and then bust. you had perceived policy missteps. six interest rate cuts. probe, a corruption shortselling investigations. you had the yuan devaluation. record outflows. a lot of turbulence in china over the last 12 months. downward pressure is increasing, you bet. that is what we saw in the fourth quarter numbers. the worst quarterly gdp figure since 2009, when china and the rest of the world was wrapped in the outbreak of the financial crisis. quarter over quarter, not surprisingly, it was also lower than expected. quarter overally quarter. we were expecting 1.8%. there are the numbers there. let's look at the full year. still the lowest pace of four-year growth since 1990.
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25 years. showinghly indicators the economy. sounds like we are going back to the future, almost. but we also did get other data. industrial production, retail sales figures, what does that tell us? stephen: we have to look at those because it really shows the trend. economy.the old industrial production, 5.9% in december. we were expecting 6%. so it is a little bit of a mess -- miss. roads, railways, etc., this did think it 10% growth. to 10% growth.
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we were expecting 10.2%. not too much of an aberration. angie: what is next coming out of china? that is the question now. stephen: 6.5% is what they are predicting for this year. rishaad: the hot topic for our guest today. the chief advisor to the banking regulators saying that the slowing growth story is not gloom and doom. he says it is normal. >> china is slowing and it is totally understandable. it will grow somewhere between adding $700 will be billion to the world economy. that is the size of switzerland. you are adding an economy size of switzerland to the global economy.
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amount then was the u.s. cordon to rescue the banking system. >> it was the size of the u.s. economy in the 1990's. >> exactly. this is not such a doom and gloom story. said that china will suffer if beijing does not push ahead with real reform. >> the economy has changed fundamentally. how do you change the slowdown in growth? there will be less capital. the economy relies on productivity to drive growth. single companies may strive, but the overall economy struggles without real reform. economist chinese said policymakers must not focus too heavily on gdp because growth should not be a top priority. >> at this stage, you have multiple targets. growth is not the single most important target. you have the environment, the
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equality, and other targets. they keep on stating the annual and put a lot of restriction or constraint on the actual policy. rishaad: that is today's word from asia on china. angie: you can only imagine how markets are reacting to all of that data. let's get back to haidi lun. fori: certainly a lot investors to digest today. we saw, across -- we saw calm across the asian markets before. now we are seeing a bit of a slip. shanghai, within the last five minutes, coming off those highs. still trading above the gain level. we had seen stronger gains before this largely on expectations that you do get in china with data that mrs. --
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that misses. now we are flat. it looks like we are on track for another volatile afternoon session when it comes to china. elsewhere around the region, the nikkei down by .7%. asx starting to come down, but still holding onto those gains, about .2%. some of these economies are very heavily exposed to china in terms of export demand. taiwan is another one we are seeing some pretty steep declines four. shanghai shares, as we have been talking about over the past few days, the selloff has been so intense that about 40% of the stocks listed are in oversold territory. we would have expected to see a rebound to some of these stocks. tech, health care, consumer names, but not so much. inare seeing strength
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industrials, oil and gas. we did get expectations of more policy support or at least policies that would affect the probability of some of these big oil refiners coming through and saying that as long as crude remains under $40 a barrel, we will not see any price adjustments for the chinese market. as a result, we are seeing a couple of the opec -- the sinopec names up. gains, upa leading 1.4%. rishaad: we have this supply glut that we have been referring to and it comes despite opec coming out with its latest report. ben sharples is with me to have a look at what this is about. it is opec trying to manage the prices. ben: they are talking about -- rishaad: they say one thing and
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then put water on that. ben: absolutely. they are talking about the oversupply for the reduction in supply from countries like canada and the u.s. u.s. shale has been particularly targeted. $60 sometime ago. that was seen as the trigger for shale to be pushed out of the market, but it has not. it has stayed resilient. with these prices around the globe around the $28 a barrel mark, it remains to be seen. another interesting thing from opec is they mentioned that opec --elf is supplying markets the oversupply is around 600,000 barrels a day. they did not mention iran in their commentary. they are bringing extra barrels into the market. rishaad: but they have huge
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challenges, the iranian oil industry. ben: they certainly do. levelsriced around these . they cannot just push these barrels into the market. they need to provide an incentive for people to take them. in 2012, when they were the second-biggest producer in opec, it was easy for them. now that those barrels have not been in the market for a while, refineries have been reconfigured and they really need to provide an incentive. rishaad: thank you very much for that. angie: checking other headlines for you this morning, rio tinto says it is going to cut its iron ore output amid the global supply glut. the ceo says the company is "handling a challenging market backdrop." last week, he said the output
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for iron ore would remain muted. checking shares in sydney right now, climbing .25%. o is expected to post its first ever annual loss today. it was established in 1968. behind the is anticipated reverse. shares in seoul are reversing, 1.2% down. starwood might be making a bid for a hotel owner in singapore. sources say they may provide offers for ascendant hospitality in the next month. starwood and fosun may face competition. blackstone and a hong kong-based organization may also be eyeing a stake. rishaad: still ahead, we hit the
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slopes of china's so-called powder paradise for a special report on the country's emboldened tourism industry. plus, china missing its gdp estimates. that is right after this very short break. ♪
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angie: china's economy slowed in december, the weakest quarter of growth the 2009 global recession. let's get some perspective from sarkus schomer, pine ridge' chief economist. you happen to be in asia when china is revealing to the world it is slowing down. it is not too much of a surprise, but within the gloom and doom, there is a little bit of a bright spot. could be. markus: on the one hand, it
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confirms the story that everyone knows about that the market has been reacting to. i thought it would have been worse if we had seen significant acceleration, which probably would not have been credible. these numbers are in line with what the pmi numbers are showing us. what we should take away is that the credibility of some of these numbers is officially increasing. on the other hand, i was looking for some evidence that the stimulus measures implemented in the last few months are showing some effect. rishaad: how would they manifest themselves? markus: i would think we would see stronger retail sales. manufacturing is driven by structural factors so that will not change anytime soon. but the services sector, retail sales, that is some wear -- that is somewhere you would see an effect of the government spending. we did not see it this time. 's, the high-frequency
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numbers, that is where i am looking for signs of a stabilization in the pace of slowdown. the gdp numbers are too slow. rishaad: let's get to manufacturers. when we look at retail, it is still cyclical activity. manufacturers are a structural issue. the trouble is when that cyclicality turns against the resale side -- the retail side, that is when you could have trouble. markus: that is true. the service sector in china is too large to be volatile. you look at growth stories in the u.s. the consumer is not volatile at all. the volatility comes from manufacturing. that is weighing growth in china. they have a situation of large overcapacity in many industries. therefore, investment spending will continue to be week for another -- weak for a number of
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years. if you want to look at a change in quality in china, you need to look at the consumer side, the service sector side and the s are the keyr pmi' thing to look at right now. angie: they are not enough to overshadow any declines we are seeing in the manufacturing base, but i want to get back to you on the stimulus part. is this another indication that monetary policy and leaving liquidity in the hands of people it or don'tmisspent know how to use it or don't need it isn't working? markus: url most making a broader global argument. i think that is true. we have learned that the efforts to stimulate growth have not really worked. there is no way the world can point to strong growth and inflation. as a stimulus tool, it has proven to be quite ineffective. we need more fiscal spending.
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it is a global issue. to some extent, china is a reflection of overinvestment in china, but also a reflection of not enough demand overseas. both of those probably require stronger fiscal spending in order to get the demand going to eat up some of the overcapacity we are seeing in china. angie: is the problem kind of like everybody wants to be an engineer but nobody wants to be in construction? markus: interesting. i am not sure that i would differentiate much between the two because, in a way, they are tied together. ae manufacturing side was sector that china, in particular , chose to stimulate its economy posts 2008 -- post-2008. the overcapacity there is what is weighing on growth now. a number of countries around the
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world have cut rates in order to stimulate exports and manufacturing, but what they are really doing is inflating housing bubbles. canada is an example, australia is an example. it is part of the same story, but different sides of the coin. ofis an unwanted side effect what we are seeing on the policy side. rishaad: marcus shorter -- mark us joining us for a discussion. israel carried out a real attack after it was criticized by a u.s. envoy. they are concerned that they are building the west bank and economic development. benjamin netanyahu said the comments were inappropriate. >> too many attacks on palestinians.
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lack of response by israeli authorities. too much vigilantism goes unchecked. at times, there seems to be to standards, one for israelis and another for palestinians. rishaad: airstrikes in the yemeni capital reported to kill 14 people. say 30 peopleials may be trapped in the rubble. the sunni-led coalition began attacking the houthis last march. angie: a brazilian tv report venture inlliton's 2013, a dam was at risk of bursting. documentsthe ceo saw warning of safety. it collapsed in november, killing 17 people and polluting hundreds of meters of water ways. it has indicted both companies
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on similar charges. up, a newoming destination challenging the united states for venture capital. angie: it is all about where the money is going. we will take a look at where it is after this short break. ♪
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angie: welcome back. ."u are watching "asia edge china is emerging as a legitimate challenger to u.s. leadership of the tech industry. pouringcapitalists around $37 million into mainland startups last year alone. that is more than double the previous year. shai is here. venture capitalists are going to china. what drove the boom last year? shai: a lot of it was alibaba's record-setting ipo. they saw that you can make a big
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in the chinese market. people just see an opportunity to make a lot of money. angie: it is 1.4 billion people. they need a lot of stuff. the tech boom is interesting. is it just a boom or did we see it in china and worldwide? year, the numbers globally were about 136 in dollars. the biggest numbers in the u.s. china has gone from $4.5 billion to $15 billion to $37 billion last year. the stock market is a lot weaker. gdp numbers are softer and there is a lot of uncertainty. vc's stealing those gyrations? does the recent stock rout affect that? shai: there are guys who put $100,000 in a garage -- well, i
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do not know if there are too many garages in beijing, but they are looking 5-10 years. then there are guys who come in with much more mature startups. , if you go into them, you are putting in $100 million and looking long-term. i and hearing from long-term that -- from entrepreneurs that it is a lot tougher. they have powder in the cake and money to deploy, but they will be much more discerning. the other side of that, there was a lot of money coming in from domestic markets. that money has evaporated from the markets. so i think valuations are going to be coming down. which means it is actually a buying opportunity. might even be somewhat more active. it is a mixed picture, but it will be a tough year overall. angie: what is likely to happen
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for 2016? what does all of this portend? year really was a turning point. it was insane. basically anybody was getting funding in the chinese market in particular. globally, there is a lot of concern about a bubble. a lot of unicorns, companies worth $1 billion or more. exits were at the lowest level since 2008. there is a global anxiety. is that going to mean it is worse or better? in other words, is china a last opportunity or just as bad as everyone else? i think it is still early days. angie: we have not even made it past january yet. we all feel already a little older. i think we are all going to work until we are 90. thank you so much for that. let's take a look at the markets right now.
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markets -- market gyrations. asian stocks dropping as china goes to his weakest since 2009. the latest on japan's reopening after this very short break. ♪
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having a look at top stories, china's official growth figures below expectations less quarter. gdp rising 6.8 percent in the three months since the end of december. the economy expanding 6.9% for the year. the slowest since 1990. a roller coaster year. a record devaluation of the yuan , plunging foreign-exchange reserves and a $5 trillion stock market route. opec says rival oil producers
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will plummet as the crash in crude prices hit canada and the u.s.. the latest reports say non-opec production will fall by over $600,000 per day. shale will be the worst hit. will slow the pace of iron ore expansion. output will increase about 7% to three and 50 million tons. that is down from 11% expansion last year. the chief executive says it is facing a challenging market with oil prices down 75%. angie: how are the markets doing right now? for thet to haidi latest. haidi: a mixed bag. we had falling numbers in terms of the china gdp. in the other respects, slightly missed expectations.
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the markets swinging between losses, in one camp it was not as bad as what was expected. on the other, a miss consensus. the overhanging question of how reliable and credible the numbers are in terms of an insight into how the rebalancing act is going for china. shanghai has surged ahead, up by one and seven tense of a percent. ramping up gains last 20 minutes. australia also climbing more, asx putting on 4/10 of 1%. kiwi stocks middle -- minimally higher. to five down by seven cents of 1%. we are back on the cusp of their territory. down about 20% from the gnp when 20%omes to the nikkei, down from the august highs when it
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comes to the topix index. weakness coming to or from southeast asia. the philippines extending on yesterday's terrible losses. wearta giving back the gains saw at the open, down by about a quarter of 1%. a volatile session we are seeing . in terms of the breakdown for chinese markets, if shanghai can hang on to these gains, we will be looking at the first today rally for this market so far -- today rally for this market so far this year. chinese markets embattled. are inthe stocks oversold territory. a little bit of a recovery when it comes to some of the industrial names, financial seeing a rally. the tech stocks and health care stocks, not getting much love. separate news flow coming through from the chinese government, clued print -- crude prices, no adjustment when it comes to fuel prices in china.
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a nice rally. in hong kong and shanghai, a big oil refiner, some of the names up. petro china leading gains in the sector, up by two and 6/10 of 1%. get more on the figures, youw gdp have had time to look at it in more detail. what does look like behind the numbers? >> a soft reading. the economy was struggling going into the latter end of last year. undoubtedly a disappointment after the initiatives that have taken. the silver lining, the services sector is holding up pretty well . the consumption side is holding up pretty well. not a bad result considering there was a stock market rising in china last year that raised $5 trillion in value. on paper. but even with the negative
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sentiment, as consumers consider -- continue to spend. the problem is, the transition is not happening fast enough and consumption services side of things is not enough to fill the hole left by oil growth drivers like manufacturing. rishaad: what happens next? this is the only country that produces its target for growth in the beginning of the year. we might look at the end of the year. it is consistent. there is an argument that they should drop the gdp altogether. gains, areas where you can he get real growth. out real growth. this was a reality check. demand for new loans is holding up. housing prices holding up.
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this underscores the challenge china has to try and pull off an unprecedented transition. it probably indicates -- rishaad: so many things we haven't seen before. >> this is unprecedented. going forward, at the least, we expect to see more stimulus from the government. they will do more spending. yuan, it is a wildcard. angie: the global glut of iron ore forces producers to change their output targets and rio tinto is no exception. let's get more from our news commodities reporter, david stringer. what is rio tinto telling us about production for the year ahead? well, look. the bottom line is, they will continue to produce more iron ore. in 2016, that will be at a
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slower pace than last year. in 2015 come output for rio tinto grew 11%. this year, the growth happening around 7%. of supplying the pace moderating from rio. it will still produce about 350 million tons in 2016, and it could eclipse its rival as the top producer of iron ore. the strategy is intact. the big iron ore producers the likes of rio that that they can force out there cost be a rivals claim a rivals, and larger slice of market share for themselves. even amid the week prices. -- the weak prices. rishaad: david -- angie: david versus goliath.
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what is the outlook for iron ore prices for 2016? david: you are right. tinto says smaller rivals are hanging on by differing turning of. that is no surprise -- by their fingernails. 75% ore production fell from 2011. citigroup sees prices falling further in most bearish outlooks. iron ore trading below $30 per ton. the weaker gdp figures out of china we have been discussing previously, surely that is another negative for iron ore. angie: iron ore and copper, right? what did rio say about the outlook for copper? is the great hope for many of the big diversified miners. they are looking to add copper
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growth and production over the next few years. they say it will provide growth. rio tinto signed a financing deal for a mine in mongolia. term,creases in the near it says it could grow production in copper about 24% this year. it's complex in utah recovers from a slip in 2013. as it sees growth elsewhere, positive outlook for copper. if not for iron ore. angie: david stringer, thanks for all of that. rishaad: a look at the other more than 1000g british jobs in the latest blow to the uk's rapidly shrinking industrial base. south wales will bear the brunt of the layoffs at 750 losses. tata closed a plant in the
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northeast, a loss of 1200 jobs. china produces half of the steel in the world. the mills have responded to slowing demand by selling sheep lee overseas. an indonesian billionaire's wireless carrier looks to raise more cash. it plans to attract $2 billion by sharing -- selling shares to existing stockholders. biggestd's second mobilephone market. it has vowed to shake up the sector. bmw will go it alone in the tech for the car of the future. it will locate nearby restaurants and turn your heating on and off. carmakers are under the -- under pressure to develop digital features as apple and google try to enter the industry. currency won't hurt
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economic recovery even if it hits 110 per dollar. the finance minister says there is a high probability the yen amid safe haven demand. they expect to ease policy towards the end of the year. travelers may be the big winners from oil's 12 year lows. japanese airlines will dump fuel surcharges. these have been, i remember when oil was at 75 dollars or $50. european carriers rushing ahead to bring the surcharges in place. they have been dying on for a long time. it hit its peak back in 2008. seven years later in 2016, we are far from the levels.
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you can see why they are cutting the fuel surcharge. that is thanks to singapore kerosene. analysts say the price has fallen below the minimal level surcharge.ey this is the one-month contract. it has fallen over 40%. under the threshold that was set by ana in japan, take a look at this six times per year. to my beverage for a few prices, if it falls below $51 for flights from japan, no fuel to -- surcharge. for overseas flights, below $60. we are far away from those levels. ana eliminated surcharges for overseas flights back in december. they are expected to do the same for flights from japan as soon as next month. south korean airlines have done this. the budget carriers, asia has
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done this. yvonne: south korean won was a qantas folded -- the surcharge into its base ticket pricing year ago. this is, as we see prices continue to fall, the outlook for oil prices looking grim when you look at slowdown as well as it -- iran coming back online. a welcome sign for travelers and airlines. a major boost in earnings, major advantages of fuel prices remain at these levels. coming up, how low can oil go? we talk about the prospects for crude in our group discussion when "asia edge" returns. stay with us. ♪
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angie: making headlines around the world. rishaad: hong kong police aceived a letter from
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security agency about a missing bookseller. he disappeared last month. his wife says she is assisting the investigation on the mainland. a friend says her father was objected in china. they appeared on television saying he handed himself to chinese police over a drunk drivers in -- driving incident. angie: eagles cofounder glenn 67. has died at he formed the eagles with don henley in 1971 and they scored a string of west coast rock hits before splitting up and reforming. henley said frey had an encyclopedia -- and segregated knowledge of music. he said they were family. rishaad: the coming over fire
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after nominating only white actors. will smith and jaiteh think it will be boycotting. there are calls for a boycott. it is unclear if anything had any impact. steve, and markus join us. as an economist, taking a look at how the world is shaping up in 2016, foil is no doubt critical. -- foil is creek -- oil is critical. markus: we need to understand what is happening and driving the decline in commodity prices. i talked increasingly about the price we are paying for the we saw in thecies earlier part of the recovery. initially, the idea was to artificially boost asset prices and hope the economy would catch
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up. i think the economy never got there. there is no growth. prices are correcting. we are seeing it in equity markets. this reflects misallocation of capital. prices jumped back to $100 after the recession. it was an incentive for producers to go out there and get more loans at low interest rates and increase production. hit the market in 2014. that is when we realized what went wrong and it is not a big surprise to see commodity prices adjusting. rishaad: we talked about this earlier. a world with no growth. india has decent growth. you can't find an inflation. what has changed in the world, where central banks had to fight hard? oil was responsible in the 70's and 80's and even the 1990's, trying to keep a lid on inflation.
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why has the inflation, and why have the disinflation there tendencies come home to roost? even in 2006-2007, oil prices drove interest rates. they were $250 per barrel. a strong demand. the issue right now is, in response to the prices, the policy exacerbated the capacity problem. that is one reason we have deflation. the other reason, the way we try touse monetary policy stimulate demand didn't work. we never gave it to people who could -- we were trying to boost asset prices as opposed to boosting growth. markus: that is right. the idea of boosting didn't work. one side effect is that we talk income inequality. if you had invested money, you
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benefited greatly from asset price increases. that is mostly the rich part of the world, not the normal worker in countries around the world. the other problem, we gave all the money to the banks. we relied on the banks to use the money to extend loans and stimulate growth. that never happened. the transmission channel -- angie: the benevolence of banks. markus: we underestimated it. inflation expectations will fall. will that do to the pace of interest rates in the u.s.? to put an end to the dark side? markus: it will slow it. interest rates need to go up to be liberalized again. getcentral banks need to out of the interest rate market and let interest rates reflect expectations about growth and risk in the future. the decline in oil prices will slow the pace. the fed indicates rate hikes
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this year and next year. we predict only one this year, two or three next year. will the biggest catalyst before the rise in commodity prices? will it be china? >> u.s. shale. >> the catalyst for a turnaround in the oil market is two things. is enoughere anecdotal evidence that supply is starting to come off in the u.s. in particular. in russia, also. we are not far off from opec announcing a cut in supply. is an upgradelyst in growth expectations. imf, yes. i expect to see that in july when they update the outlook. we are getting to the point where europe will surprise on the upside. may be onlike india the upside. emerging markets look better. july, for example. , for example.
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>> consumption will be a key thing, a positive. will that be enough to offset struggling industries? >> i think so. struggling industry stories slow growth in 2015. i do not think there is more pressure coming there. we are getting to the point , theyoil prices created created part of the problem with the energy sector. they have had no positive effect on consumption. the thing we didn't understand, 20 16, that balance will shift. you will see the positive impact on consumption. >> dear point about misplaced qe, you are seeing growth in europe. is that based on false paradigms ? they are still stimulating. the qb that the
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ecb has done has done nothing to stimulate growth or inflation. ecb growth around, the conducted a quality review in 2014. that instilled confidence in the banks themselves that their sector is not falling apart. that is what got the banking sector to lend again to the bet -- to the private sector. that is what is driving growth, not the qe. angie: good insight. thanks so much. usually in new york, here in asia, very timely. coming up, rishaad: china finding, actually, steve did this. there is no business like snow business. angie: he wanted to show off his moves. that is what we are thinking. how china is trying to alert people to its slopes. people to its slopes.
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that is coming up. ♪
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rishaad: china is rebalancing towards consumption, being taken to new heights. angie: it's first act country ski operations opened. the developer is heading into tourism ahead of the olympics. stephen engle has a look. stephen: holiday backcountry bucket list for the chill seeker. carving up the summit of a chinese volcano in a -30 degrees deep-freeze. it's not often you can say you are skiing between china and north korea, but that is what we are doing. it is a good thing i can still feel pain and might hose. we are on the border. china's firstes
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ski operation, meaning there are no careless -- chair lifts. straight into the wind on the back of a noisy nostril freezing snowmobile. the back country has 250 acres the top run starts at 2600 meters or 8500 feet at the summit and skirts the rim of the volcanic called era. -- the volcanic caldera. shenzhen listed the company as a homebuilder but it is diversifying to meet leisure needs. it is following the trail map of larger developers going into tourism. buta built this resort, there is little operate -- apres
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ski and odd rules like closing down the mountains before the chair lifts. we were stranded up top. >> there is a huge opportunity. the real estate industry needs to adopt a more sustainable model in order to boost profit and revenue. >> they are looking to offer the next level of experience. over 300 million people will get into winter sports. the ski industry has gone from a baby lying on its back to running in a fraction of the time and normally should. -- is growing pains. china's economy could go from high flying to crash landing in a flash. the economic chill will no doubt have everybody flipping out. stephen engle, bloomberg, china. that is black diamond
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skiing right there. rishaad: how come stephen gets all the good assignments? angie: that is it for "asia edge
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