>> china slows with the weakest quarter since the global recession and the worst full year since 1990. brent crude is near a 12 year low kerry meanwhile, opec forecasters a steeper decline in supplies from rival producers. and central banks take stage. week year up for our attorneys comments for the year.
manus: a very warm welcome to "countdown" let us get you up to date as we start the european trading day. all focus reflect back on the does of winning numbers from china. that the national team is playing in the shanghai composite as one analyst says from our asia reporters. the other interesting dynamic is the shanghai composite is no longer in a there -- bear territory. what we have here is shanghai debt. the overall margin trading falls june. lowest since last shanghai margin debt for the the day in a row is at lowest level since october the
ninth, excuse me when bar worth had taken not about 1.3 trillion yuan. a real reduction in the overall leverage. where is the money flowing this morning? fromower gross numbers china are reflecting in the aussie and the kiwi. let's look at the aussie dollar and the kiwi dollar. we are turning it around in terms of these currencies. we have just come back from that negative territory. keep an eye on the japanese yen, it has risen by 2.3% versus the dollar this month. -- the future traders are the most bullish. let us get you up to speed. nejra: china's official growth figures came in below expectations with gdp rising 6.8% for the world's second-largest economy expanded six point 9% annually, it's slowest rate since 1990. further stimulus may be needed
after a roller coaster year. and a $5 trillion stock market route. branch group continues to trade near a 12 year low after i ran issued an order to boost production. opec says supply from non-cartel producers will plummet as the -- asin isis hits canada the crash in prices hit canada and the u.s. is to slow the pace of iron ore expansion amid the global supply glut. it will also freeze salaries after the ceo said the company is handling a challenging market backdrop. --n ore has some -- snub sunk more than 75%. donald trump will push for companies including apple to bring manufacturing back to the united states. he was speaking at liberty university in virginia. >> make america great again.
i really believe this. we will get things coming. --will get apple to grilled to build their computers in this country. nejra: british mps have lambasted donald trump as they debate whether he should be allowed in the country. the discussion was prompted after an online petition was signed calling him to be barred from the u.k. after he said he wanted to ban muslims from america. met withnery should be a classic british response, ridicule. danger by attacking this one man is that we can fix hood. of victim as an advantage among those who support him. he is dealing with racism,
sexism, and bigotry. let us be clear. donald trump is an idiot. nejra: that is your bloomberg first world news. for more on those stories, you can head to our terminal. manus: lettuce head out straight to asia. there was a line there that i read, the national team seems to be playing in the chinese market today. juliette: that would be a lot of speculation. last hour ofin the some strong buying coming through on the shanghai composite which is now up by 2.8%. marketthe bear territory. gains from energy companies. to support fuel prices. that has helped lift the chinese markets today despite the fact that the gdp number for the fourth quarter missed analysts
estimates at 6.8 percent. elsewhere in the region, we're seeing a good pickup on the hank and index in -- hang seng index on late trade. some of the oil companies are coming back, up by around 4%. generally a bitter finish to most of those market that are closing. korean and japanese market closing higher although it was a very choppy day in japan. 225ooked like the nikkei was going to enter bear market territory but it did close higher. just having a look at some of the major movers in the region today. nintendo shares very strong in japan. that was on an outperform rating. kong drug company in hong listing things along in the pharmaceutical sector. it will resume production that accounted for 15% of its 2014
net income. rio tinto will pay back its iron its iron oreack production amid the glut. a much more positive session here in asia. the second win for asia stocks in 2016. manus: china counts is weakest quarter of growth since 2009. during the global system -- during the global session. 6.8% rise in december and 6.9% for the full-year growth. it was in line with the government target of about 70%. let us get to china where our deputy euro cheap is standing by. in theatic surprises headline numbers but we have seen disappointment in retail sales and in terms of fixed asset investment. it makes for a week or -- -- weaker. it increases the prospects of
both monetary and fiscal stimulus. the third -- the full-year gdp data was a long estimates. a little below. fourth-quarter gdp as well as the december data for industrial reduction, retail sales, and fixed asset investment that were disappointing. the estimates. it signals weakening momentum towards the end of last year. the good news is that it allows the central bank to remain relatively accommodative, maybe more cuts in interest rates as well as reserve ratios as well as possibly more increased fiscal spending. that is being played out in the market today. with a big rally with industrial companies. including railway and construction companies. -- there is a lot of speculation about's fiscal spending. china launched the asian
infrastructure bank. the goal for that is to increase infrastructure spending in asia. manus: this is all about transition as well from the tradition, the build up to the olympics, the rapacious demand for everything under the sun to the reality of this growth. where are we in terms of the reality of this rebalancing? alan: consumption has become a key part of the economy. it is more than 50% of the economy this year. that is why today's retail sales data was a little bit disappointing. was it a one month left or will the history -- blip or was it a one -- or was it a trend. manus: thank you very much. let us get a little bit more.
chris joins me in the studio for the next hour. you see these headline numbers on the gdp. that is not the shocking part. when you look further at retail sales and reduction, this is the personification of slow, slow, slow down. the data is quite remarkable in how they managed the slowdown. the background. the biggest credit boom relative to gdp we have seen in any economy in several decades. the other side of that, with the credit bust and they are managing it very well. i have to say that we are far from done in terms of where china goes from here. there is plenty more risk out there. it is very challenging. he idea that you can challenge -- transition that economy to a consumption economy is not doable.
if you look at the corporate sector as well, the profitability is contracting very hard across a whole range of companies. manus: you have looked at the nonfinancial companies. 1300 companies you survey. revenues are contracting. debt loads are rising. are these the flashing lights we do not see in these headline numbers? ris: there is a slow accelerating deterioration in the corporate sector. we knew there was a lot of debt in the local economies. debt tildes that the is also in the nonfinancial worker sector. revenues are contracting 10% year on year of ross those 1400 companies. a dramatic number. been: the battle has fought and one bank -- and won in the day today -- in the day
to day yuan. spending reserves. they are throwing the kitchen sink at defending the yuan. which camp are you in? dramatic devaluation? or they would not risk that having just joined the imf. i am referring to the pboc. it causes enormous pressure on the domestic corporate sector. they need the currency to devalue slowly. a fast devaluation would put them to a lot of problems and hit their profitability very hard. pbocis another reason the is doing it very slowly. the whole trade bringing dollars and playing that over the last five years into the chinese economy and playing the yield
that theseina, companies have been doing for a long time. you cannot unwind that quickly in the other way. you are also concerned about nonperforming loans. another reason we are not done in china. 10-20forming loans go to as a percentage of total debt. at the moment, in china, we are at 2% and slowly rising. realistically, those have to go a lot higher. excessesese are the they really have to tackle. ceo williew economic stay with us. we will get the inflation rate out of the u.k. get the ims world
manus: 6:17 a.m. in london. let us get the bloomberg business. nejra: rio tinto is to slow the pace of iron ore output expansion amid the global supply glut. it will also freeze salaries after the ceo said the company is handling a challenging market backdrop. than 75%has some more from a 2011 eight. is selling its
stakes in more than three dozen banks. it would help the french lender bolster capital. the young w is to launch a digital help her for its vehicles. it would let drivers find the best routes, locate nearby restaurant and even turn their home heat off or on. apple and google are also considering entering the industry. that is your bloomberg business flash. trading at or near a 12 year low. volatility. this is the commodity that will give it to you. iran's plans to boost its output. in 2016.down 22% is trading at little bit higher in the london sector but it is still self -- sub $30.
elliott: the market knows that iran is planning to booze exports by a half $1 million -- half a million barrels a day. another half-million barrels a day in a year. i rambleachs thinks overdeliver in the short term as it starts to wind down those barrels of oil it has stashed on offshore tankers. over the long-term, whether it needs the extra million barrels a day of exports in the next six months or so, there is a bit of disagreement among analysts. certainly, that is something that is very much in view of investors and speculators in the oil markets. manus: talk to me about iran. a great deal was made of them coming back to the market yesterday. they have to fight for their market space. they don't want this to
collapse. iran from its perspective, they will say -- we have not been able to export to our full potential. we want back what we had before. the problem is that there is plenty of oil out there. a glut. 2 million barrels extra on the market right now. consumersty cheap and can get it from many places. from iran's perspective, persuading consumers to buy its oil, it's extra oil is not so easy. they have had waivers from the u.s. despite sanctions. will they import more iranian oil, they are open to the possibility that the response tends to be -- what is in it for me? companies want to know what
better terms they will get if they were to import more iranian oil. if iran does say -- we will give you a discount, will saudi arabia and others follow suit? manus: thank you very much. annt trading at over two and eighth this morning. the expansion of iron ore expansion. in the wake of slumping prices and the market glut, rio tinto is facing the same issues. witho finally joining in an honest admission that it is time to cut production. ryan: i love the iron ore market. what we are starting to see is that they are paring back their production expansion. it is a little bit different. looking at the fourth quarter, they produced by one measure
about 87 million metric tons of iron ore. we spoke with six analysts going into today's report and the wase of expectations 88,000,000-100,000,000 rio tinto produced less than anyone was anticipating last quarter. the company in a statement yesterday said we are going to reduce 350 million metric tons this year. that is not a cut. it is a paring back of the production expansion. that would mean an increase of about 7% run 2016 two 2015 where saw an 11%we production increase. all of this continues the blocked. we are getting -- the glut. glut is goingthe anywhere. we are down about 76% from the peak we were at into the 11. manus: you have to talk about
steel. came industrial production up short in china. it is slowing. that is not helping things. it is the biggest consumer of iron ore and steel. chinese exports are going through the roof because they cannot sell them to the domestic market. steel prices are going down. here is a fun fact. it tells you how far the steel industry has declined. the biggest steel producer in the world has seen its market fall by more than $100 billion. and it is now worth the same as the operator of legoland. they are both worth about $6 billion. it tells people that they do not see a lot of value in steel production. manus: they don't. that draws in the question about how you seaworld growth.
world growth. europe could face a wave of migration that will eclipse today's refugee crisis. that is what the executive -- we have a refugee problem in europe now. additional crisis. i am very concerned that this lowering of commodity prices substantiale breakdown in countries. manus: let us get more now with chris from longview economics. he is the ceo over there. of schwab making the point the geopolitics of migration. i want to reflect back on elliott's comments.
rio cutting back its expansion in iron ore, a glut in oil. the chinese were typically the buyer. they are getting ready for the olympics. when you see this dramatic slowdown and drop in commodity pricing, is that telling me something more about this date of the world economy? and the potential for recessions. chris: this whole idea that we have seen pedal amongst analysts in the media that it is all to do with supply is misleading. it is supply and demand. the interesting thing if you think about the world economy in biglast decade, amongst the companies in the world, energy and materials. a totally distorted world economic growth situation because of this cheap money and china booming and the emerging markets booming. it has been commodity centric.
china is slowing. cheap money is going away. demand is softening. thes not just china it is western world. so much is linked to commodities. manus: i want to show you the baltic index. this goes back, we are at the lowest level we have seen since 1986. a lot of people use this as a vicarious measure in terms of what is going on in the world. when you look at that, look at the last 10 years. what does that say to you from an economic point of view? chris: that we live in a deflationary world. we are not in a typical inflationary bust at all. that is white analysts are grappling. we are in a post global credit boom world. the other side of the 30 year credit bubble. manus: the consequence for that with central banks is next.
manus: it is 6:30 in london. bloomberg's word news with nejra cehic. figures came into low expectations with gdp rising 6.8%. it signals further stimulus may be needed after a roller coaster year that saw record you on the valuation -- record u.n. evaluation. brent crude continues to trade at a 12 year low after iran issued an order to increase production. the fraction prices hit canada
and the u.s. techction from nano nations will slump. -- isnto is too slow of to slow the pace of iron or. it will free salaries after ceo sam walsh says the company is "handling a challenging market backdrop."-- market donald trump says he will push for companies to bring manufacturing back to the united states. he was speaking at liberty university in virginia. x make america great again. we are going to get things coming here at where can to get apple to start building in this country instead of other countries. nejra: that music wrote is morning the loss of another of its biggest names. glenn frey has died at the ides of-- at the age of 67
rheumatoid arthritis and pneumonia. they became one of the most 1970'sful hands of the with a string of hits, including hotel california. that is your bloomberg first word news. manus? much. thank you very it lets check in on the markets. caroline hyde with the details. caroline: we have risk appetite back on. is it the fact we think stimulus is going to come? if you dig into those numbers come from china, when you're looking at the retail, the industrial production, the fixed asset, not all of them are rosie. but does that hand we could see more stimulus to come back on certainly we are hearing from inside the market that we are seeing some fake funds buying up
the market. 2.9%.ai composite up big move. you are seeing the risk appetite playing into the fx market. this is the world's currency rancor. this shows you how the dollar is performing. south african rand, that is coming up 9/10 -- .9%. all of the fx related currency effects monti affected -- commodity affected currency. most,n curtly down the down from .3% against the dollar. you're seeing the selloff of the havens. meanwhile, it is worth bearing in mind, volatility remains elevated. we are likely to see a bounce today. we've gotten them the stoxx in a
v stocks inotten the a fix. today is an update for the united states in futures. a 1% gain. for now, risk appetite. back to you. manus: turkey announces its latest interest rate decision later today. 12:00 p.m. london time. we spoke to the country's prime minister yesterday who told us measures should help to rebalance the lira after it --nged 20% in the last year plunged 23% in the last year. sure after instrumentation of these reforms, we have implemented at a percent of the reforms in the first three months.
sure meanwhile we will rebalancing these currency rates. meant cook is all about the rebalancing get a turkey isn't the only -- manus: it is all about the rebalancing. one.y isn't the only the decision on thursday. about the u.k. cpi and three hours. sterling this year falling against the dollar. the bank of england may need to see more depreciation before their is a noticeable impact on inflation. we're joined richard jones. chris watling is still with us. i suppose when you look at it, 23% drop in your currency. the bank of england could only demiser that kind of
that could bring them a little bit of cheer and inflation. caroline hyde trumped me. not to be outdone, where using the bcw i. i want to focus on sterling. in the back skip of currency, we're about an eight -- and a basket of currency, we are our -- we are about an eight. we have lost 3%. chris, this is what the bank of england hopes to give them the yen to the yang. oil dropping out of the numbers hasn't helped. inflation is under a lot of pressure on the downside with more deflationary pressure we are seeing in the u.k. line headline inflation is low -- u.k. headline inflation is very low here and currency down helps on that side.
we are doing is shuffling inflation around the world. whoever has the strong currency has the deflationary pressure. overcome this pressure. manus: richard, before i come to you, whatever tagline you want to put on it is not the answer to global growth. what is it back up -- what is it? what is it that will deliver? or should we just devalue when we believe to be growth? richard: you can grind it out or you can do something much more radical witches cancel debt -- radical which is cancel debt. sees: i would love to if it came to a
vote to cancel debt. there is a note from our colleague, the wait for u.k. inflation is getting longer. this article it says sterling has depreciated about 7% on a trade weighted basis. it takes time for this reminds -- this demise to see through into the inflation numbers. today is not going to give us any great insight into what comes next. richard: i don't think so. we had a speaker last night, the most recent addition to the mpc. he sounded very dovish. remembers important to the reason the pound has over the past six months is because of the bank of england has been so dovish. , the interestult
rate differentials have gone against the pound which is something the bank of england will welcome. you have this underlying deflationary global overlay that is causing problems for any of the central banks. manus: give me your perspective. as you said, maybe i am wrong. debt forgiveness, perhaps i should not be so scathing of it. that is in the hike mode. .he mdc would like to that is been the indication from carney. he is going to speak today. it is good to be our first curtain raiser, in terms of his perspective. how dovish do you think this statement will be today in terms of his perspective? richard: he is very hard to read, mark carney. one day you think he's good to be dovish, and he is hinting at the first rate hike not being that part away -- being that far
away. it is a hard read. everything the u.s. moved rates, i don't think they will move again. the u.k. tends to follow but not always. i do find it very hard to read. .he u.k. economy is ok the issue is there is no inflation. it keeps inclining to the downside here we will see. the bet in the market is that it is wider than the gap. proverbially,t it it would be a dramatic change. there is no automatic change in rates priced in until next year, is it? chris: on the fourth of january, you had the bank of england left off lee price -- left off fully priced. 1415 days, had that
pushed all the way out to the middle of next year. there is no chance of liftoff. manus: jpmorgan volatility index is rising again. is there a lot of volatility in terms of trades? richard: sterling has not been immune to the resin fog. manus: richard, thank you very much. rebalancing. there is a word for you. what does it really mean? rebalancing the economy towards consumption. they continue hikes in the far northeast. its first back country ski operation. a development diversifies from homebuilding ahead of the winter olympics. a firsthand look. >> call a bus get -- a bucket list mosque -- list must.
a modest 30 degree deep freeze. not often you can say you are skiing on the border between china and north korea, but that is what we are doing here. i guess it is a good thing i can still feel pain my toes. -- they are border on the border. third ski operation. you're taking up the mountain -- you are taken up the mountain. the wind in the back of a snowmobile. the backcountry is close to 100 square meters of skiable area in china's largest reserves. it skirts the rim of the volcanic called era. cap skiing is not only new to china but the developer as well.
it is that was a fine to meet the leisure needs of a growing middle class. it is following the trail map of larger developers going into tourism. they built this mass-market resort but there is very little skiing and very odd rules. we got stranded up top. ,> there is a huge opportunity real estate industry needs to adopt a more services based and sustainable model in order to boost profit and revenue >> they are looking to offer a next level of experience to developing market in the interest that is growing in snowboarding. >> over 3 million people are expected to get into winter sports. china's industry is going from a babe lying on his back. >> there is growing pains.
>> just like there are your -- there are which could go from hard flying too hard landing in a flash. bloomberg.le, manus: that is secretly me on the snowboard. up next, it is early season for the big u.s. banks. our next guest says that does not merit the current depressed valuations. with016 banking outlook chris wieder. ♪
prices will rebound. he can't say when. there is no shock in that. to breaking headlines on radio from the total ceo. we get more, we will give it to you. slowing theinto is pace of iron ore output amid the global supply glut. it was number two exporter will freeze salaries after it say moss says the company is "handling a challenging market backdrop." prudential has reported a solvency to ratio of 190%. withompany had a solvency 9.2 billion pounds at the end of june 2015. it is the first of the u.k. insurers to disclose its capital strength of the -- under new rules they came across the european union this month. -- it will help drivers locate
the best routes. carmakers under pressure to develop digital features as companies such as apple consider and during -- entering the industry. that is bloomberg's is a splash -- bloomberg business flash. kernel of the the issue. won'tceo says the company cut the dividend. strong words. oil some $30. let's reflect to u.s. bank earnings. bank of america report later today. a little bit of retrospection. chris wheeler joins me now. chris: good morning. manus: one of the jpmorgan numbers, second straight annual record. jamie dimon has it right. he is making money.
chris: the most important factor which he benefited from is the diversified model. there are people questioning whether the user versus banking model is dead. but he proved is that is not the case. every business saw its earnings go up quarter on quarter. that shows you the strength of the business here it manus: -- strength of the business. manus: the balance shrink -- the balance sheet shrunk. growing loans by 11%. but they have been doing and ubs which is pushing on profitable -- unprofitable deposits away. what is this conundrum in terms of deposits and pushing them away? chris: i am not saying it is all a matter of the ratio. in the case of jamie dimon, they are in really good shape. but, jpmorgan were in shock when this global systematic bank
surcharge on the capital they had to hold which was doubled by the fed. giving them something 4.5% on top of the 7%. what they have been doing his slinking the business to make sure they slink that surcharge. making themselves less. by doing that, they pushed together 3.5%. manus: talk to me about the energy complex, because it is almost as if you cannot win here it jpmorgan -- cannot win. they say some $30. $30.ey say sub but the perspective of shale exposure in the united states force. they made $24 billion of net income it as you can see, it
is not something that is going to be disastrous. the other factor is what the exposure to the energy sector as a whole. , ining at it yesterday general, the overall exposure to -- it is big.ergy $17 billion at wells fargo. that is a lot of money. in comparison to the scale of the bank, it is another sector which they cover, rather than being one that dominates. manus: are we overly obsessed about the potential contagion impact from a demise in the price of oil on balance sheets and provisions? kisco in terms of the sector itself, yes. however is what i don't know are with the effects are. now in terms of if the companies mean down, what does that
in terms of companies that actually support the big oil majors. manus: we have goldman sachs over the next 24 hours. we got morgan stanley. what sense of you as the most important point for the bank of america? ofis: i think it is a case finally emerging from the crisis as a business. leaving consumer banking business in the united states -- leading of management, the investment bank, merrill lynch is still a leader. it is still having to deal with the cost issue. manus: let's see what the numbers bring to us. chris wheeler from atlantic equities on the u.s. equity and banks focus. with israel suffering is worse
bout of violence, the country's third richest man is trading jobs here at he sold desk jobs. he sold his business. he says it is the only way to achieve peace. elliott goc and spend a day with them -- elliott got can spend a day with them. is not want to sit back and relax. >> some billionaires i islands. some even run for president. [indiscernible] bringing peace to israel and its neighbors by fostering industry and jobs. millionshe spent building industrial parks like this one in nazareth. it is a story of all people living together. if people want to bit -- elliott: if people are too busy
-- >> you have peace in this area. elliott: it is a sentiment shared. his company moved to the nazareth park. love if we had 10 steps. i think we can change israel. current --e latest the latest interruption of his vision has been working for 30 years. he lauds industries like soap making and metalworking. even more startups which israel has become famous. should -- not only invented. export. and more
it would create more jobs. him who ease with workers at the canteen, it is personal. see iave a mission to will stay here, be happy here and not have to wonder -- not have to wander around like my parents after germany. i continue to do the same job. elliott: so israel's third richest man will continue to build industry parks. news.t goc in, bloomberg manus: elliott gets private trips and helicopters. let me bring you some breaking news headlines. the energy minister in france.
manus: china's growth slows with the weakest quarter since the global recession. the worst full year since 1990. crude turmoil. brent trades to near a 12 year low as the rent orders and production boost. annual profit will fog by more than 2%. -- more than 20% picked central banks take essential stage. the turkish rate decision is at noon. ♪
good morning, welcome to count down. salesng news, unilever growth rises by 4.1%. 2015 underlying sales growth rises by 4.1%. in terms of the fourth quarter, specifically hunting it down, 4.9%. the estimate out there was 4%. -- makers officant ben & jerry's ice cream. these are the kind of products you may have had from unilever. you are seeing fourth quarter growth. the sales growth is a beat. lowerlume growth comes in , 1.9%. the estimate out there was for
2.5%. we will hear from the ceo of unilever. anna edwards, if you're wondering where she is, she has hot tailed it down there. him about these results. you can see that as 7:50 london time. how your markets are trading this morning it you've got futures indicated at 1.3% higher in london. you are looking at the dax opening up 1.4%. this is a reprieve from the trolledurgers that have across these markets as commodities got demolished, oils got demolished. the dividend is safe. out to take a look at the bottom of your screen. , they are bund market trading lower at the moment. let's bring those up. down 19 takes.
yen, money coming out of the yen. let's see where the mood of the markets take us. let's get up to speed with first word news. caroline hyde has all you need to know. caroline: china's official growth figures came in below expectations. edp rising at 618%. the world's second -- rising at 6.8%. the world's second economy rising slowest since 1990. brent crude continues to trade near a 12 year low did this after i ran issued an order to boost production. opec says supply from oil producers will plummet as the cash -- the crash and prices will hit canada and the u.s. 660,000slumped by
barrels a day. total says the company's profit will fall by 20%. he added that they will not cut its dividend. he predicted the cost of crude will rebound at some point. amid the is too slow global supply glut. the number two exporter will freeze salaries this year did sam walsh says the company is handling a challenging market backdrop. donald trump says he will push for companies, including apple, to bring manufacturing back to the united states. he was speaking at liberty university in virginia. chris mccullough america great again. i think we can say now, we are make america-- >> great again. i think when you now, we're going to get companies --
medical caroline: -- let's get into these markets. juliette, you are seeing these markets turnaround. the national team has been playing today. juliette: the national team has been playing it at least that is what we are expecting waiting -- what we are speculating. the shanghai comp sit closing not in a bear market. last part ofn the trade, after the lunch break. there is a lot of speculation that the state funds have moved into the market. a lot of our trading. that is of course despite the fact the week fourth-quarter gdp number coming through. the weakest quarter in china since 2009 global recession.
is also lifted the hang seng market, trading up 1.3%. we are seeing a comeback coming through in a lot of those energy players. elsewhere we have the nikkei 225 closing higher by .6%. it had a bit of a volatile session, in fact the regional , in and out of positive territory today about nine times. tradeuying coming to in giving the area a boost. manus, this is the second wind -- stocksional socks in 2016. back to you.
saly, in honge kong. i would to bring you perspective on europe. it is certainly worth it did when we bring you all of the bearish news. open 1.3%set to higher. paris set to open 1.5%. the dax up 1.9%. we are seeing a turnaround. let's have a look at the commodity context. .27%.trading up this is a short covering rally. a bit of a reprieve. chinese numbers are priced in. the reality is what happens next with china. with that in mind, let's take a look at some of the commodity complexes you're seeing. brent trading up 2.7%. gold, $1089. it is all about
where the price of oil goes. the impact it has on banking. in terms of reduction from iran. let's reflect back on china. it has its -- it had its weakest year of growth. 6.9%.ll year, pretty much in line with the government's target. no surprises, but evidence that china is struggling with the concept of transition. >> yes, that is right. had somey's market, we speculation as well as rumors of state buying. in terms of transition, it shows the economy is still ongoing a double transition into yuan based on services and domestic
consumption. in today's data, the full-year numbers were stable. the fourth-quarter gdp data, as well as the industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all trail estimates. weaker momentum toward the end of last year. the good news is that that will allow the central bank to remain in position. , productionts reserve ratios prefer the chinese new year. the industrial companies rally today on rumors of state buying. over the weekend, the chinese government announced it is launching the asian infrastructure bank which is going to allow the government to increase spending and infrastructure, not only in china but across the region. mecca thank you very much -- manus: thank you very much.
guy, great to have you with us. to looke is to try behind the headlines. most?orries you these headlines which are retrospective? guy: the weakness in the chinese economy is ongoing. evaluatet is trying to what the pboc can do next to ensure some soft landing or transition. for consumers to pick up the chinese consumers to pick up the slack here it i think the market is looking for some sort of devaluation down the line. i am not sure is it going to come this quarter or next quarter. something relatively big has to happen soon.
perhaps it will help worldwide markets to take this issue. manus: we have a terminal of stores saying intervention. requirement coming from the pboc. we have done a survey. they say 15% devaluation. my question is what the chinese risk a one-off devaluation event to thehey just succeeded -- guy: one could read they want to do something pretty quickly. of someequences magnitude would be such that within the context, with the such amount ofnd the, we don't know what
unintended consequences would be after such an event. here could well be one of these numbers probably too high to take on. world we looked at the markets from the perspective of the equity side in terms of $7 trillion in quite off equities. sovereign bond markets seeing a substantial return so far this year. this is the sovereign bond index. world equities down. give me your perspective on the world and we're talking bear markets. we have made a great deal of news this week. guy: there is a run to safety. it illustrates the state of the world. investors on the sideline.
quite a high level of bullishness going into 2016 with many headwinds we knew about. what we are saying is a readjustment of risks. investors are raising cash awaiting the sidelines on what is going to come next from china . what the oil prices going to do. what companies are going to be up to do to offset this weakness in the oil price. few headwinds a out there. public loste patience. life here is low growth, low inflation. benefits, higher-yielding assets. in that domain, what constitutes value for you? guy: let's look at the context here.
a low growth, low rate environment, if you look at the see wenetary policy, you are still looking for for hikes this year -- four hikes this year. the market is pricing just one and perhaps some bond investors out there are looking for a return to quantitative easing by the second half of this year in the u.s. force,s a wide range of of opinions. the one line of thought that will continue to be successful is to look for companies that are well covered in terms of capital and can continue to honor that dividend policy. manus: total making that call on french radio saying there were dividendto their policy.
guy, you're going to stick with me. a good day ahead or use -- for those of you tuning in. the same for the eurozone at 10 cut a.m., along with the ew survey. world outlook. from noon, we'll hear from mark carney and get a rate decision on the turkish central bank. up next, we are talking crude crash. the annual profit falls will drop by 20%. we all right bikes. more to come. ♪
4.9% that is compared to analyst estimates of a 4% rise. french energy economy minister standards.just to radio, real says other car brands are not at norm. rio tinto is too slow to pace the iron ore outlook. exporter's number two will freeze salaries this year after the ceo says the company troubling backdrop here for more on all the stores, -- mental airline, thank you very much -- manus: caroline, thank you very much. this comes as brent crude trades near a 12 year low following
iran's plans to boost production. oil down 22% this year alone. , elliotte east editor gotkine is standing by. we have had some reprieve in oil this morning. it is a moment. we are at sub $30 here and what is next? backtt: prices are inching toward that $30 barrel mark. investors know they cannot take it easy because we have iran trying to pop out to export another half-million barrels a day. planning to add on top of that. a million as to barrels a day just from iran. that is the target. overdeliver to tap into .hose stockpiles whether it will be up to meet that million barrel target by
midyear, some think they will. some think they will not. some scrutinized over the coming months to see how much extra oil is coming onto the market. manus: elliott gotkine, the latest on the oil markets. a crash and the commodity prices. it spread economic woes across the developing world. europe could face a wave of migration that would eclipse today's refugee crisis. >> it could be a bridge you problem which we have now in europe. it is a precursor of what could come. concerned that this lowering of commodity prices leads to a substantial social
breakdown in a number of countries. --ical much more to come manus: much more to come from da vos. bund futures drop this morning. keep an eye on that. also you are seeing a move in u.s. treasuries. to take your focus to u.s. futures. u.s. government bond futures here. the 10-year note heading for its first incline and five sessions. this is quite important to you are seeing to 10 year yields dropping. you are seeing the bond futures taking up this morning in london. the actual yield to u.s. futures .re trading down near 30 ticks more to come throughout the next hour. is stillsset manager with me your guy, when you look at the world and oil right.
total saying they standing by the dividend today. ,his whole perspective of oil have we more carnage to come in this commodity space? what is your thinking? come, ie carnage to suspect yes if the oil price continues to go down. the interesting part of this year is banks, such as wells fargo, we saw their latest results. see the starting to to rout within the numbers. increasing their reserves against their energy portfolio is the first sign now this oil price situation is starting to bite and will bite the economy down the line. manus: we just looked. jpmorgan divided over half $1
billion. -- jpmorgan provided over half billion dollars. we have a variety of opinions. you are all overreacting. davo are the statements of s. we are all overreacting. overreached the pendulum of negativity. would you concur? guy: the thought here is based on the idea on one side you got industry that is falling apart, andefore destroying jobs largeutting quite a expenditure. that should've come and boosted the economy. on the other side, you have a cheaper oil price that should
benefit the consumer. unfortunately, it seems the consumer is to simply not spending this extra buck on consumption. manus: i want to bring our viewers a quick look at our morning must-read. this is something -- it comes from the journal. shale will rise again. the peaks and valleys both wreak havoc. a deluxens imagine idea with price is just right. a goldilocks scenario. consumers are not spending it. it is causing a deflationary spiral. what does 2016 hold for you and jupiter in terms of dealing with it? d had to be more fast and furious and precise in terms of
stock choosing? said earlier, the main thing here is to go for relatively safe investments. companies that have enough capital to honor their dividend. companies that have a large chunk of the business recurring, rather than looking for revenue growth in areas that are pretty cyclical. you don't know where the world is going. you rely less on the cyclicality and look for more recurring revenue story that gives you certainty about where your earnings are going to be in a certain point. the idea here is the market needs confidence coming from the fed. -- markets need to believe the fed knows what it is doing. asian investors, where they can believe the chinese government
guy:, welcome to on the move. we are counting you down to the european equity open which looks like it could be strong. i am guy johnson here is your morning brief. slowdown with gdp at the weakest level since 1990, increasing anticipation of or stimulus. brent trades near a 12 year low as iran run orders of production increase. unilever says it is preparing for high volatility and tougher market conditions in 2016. we speak to paul holman.