manus: good morning and welcome it hasntdown." anna: just gone 6:00. good morning. the asian markets really picking up and running with it. i think a lot it is sort of here. the biggest two-day rally in almost seven years. who called the crash in crude says you can get back to $50, possibly $70. we have seen volatility hit levels we haven't seen since 2009. the hedge funds, the all important driver of sentiment, have turned bullish on the russian ruble. one note. 2015's crude imports in phone to the lowest since 1980. that gives you a little bit of an inkling on the demand side. anna: we checked in on the
equity story, oil story. let's talk a little bit about treasuries. investors have been allowing the oil price to have too much sway over other asset classes. that explains in some way the divergent view on treasuries coming from goldman sachs. talking about how we could see an increase in yields on the u.s. 10 year where they are to 2.2% or so.% morgan stanley talking about a bull market in treasury. the first wordt news off to a start this monday. crude is still down over to stockpiles.ue
japan's imports of crude last year dropped to the lowest level since 1988 amid a declining population and more efficient vehicles. japan's annual trade deficit almost 80% as the weaker yen helped spur a modded -- spur a modest increase in exports. the shanghai composite index has tumbled this year, and ubs said the slide is not done. the index will drop another 14% from current levels. as much as 18 people have died in the blizzards in the eastern united states. central park headed biggest 24 hour snowfall on record. all broadway shows were canceled for the first time since superstorm sandy in 2012. is goes airports are expected to
resume normal service today after over 13,000 flights were canceled over the weekend. now andt's go to asia check in on the live market action. david english has all the details. a very good morning. , i guess, theg last leg of the trading session. broadly speaking, we are seeing an extension of the rally the third of writing and saturday. 5% gains that would be the biggest two-day gain going back well over two years. you can see here, every benchmark is up. you are looking at volatility coming down, volumes picking up a little bit. that is just good news. whybad news, and the reason it shows you that maybe everyone
have convinced, that you some of these measures of risk appetite showing that it might not have legs. look at the dollar yen. it is stronger, money flowing back to the yen from high-yielding currencies. down are actually coming on the 10 year japanese bond. sleeping,uys were gold actually inched back up a love of 11 -- inspect up above 1100. thateveryone is convinced this rally could have legs. back to you guys in london. manus: is a busy week for central banks today. we will get rate decision from the israeli central bank and
that it is the federal reserve term. anna: plus south after and new zealand. there are many central banks. friday, the bank of japan will announce its monetary policy. manus: the head of global fx -- said in dollars, there is not a country in the world that you consider not easing. this is a big week for markets, isn't it? >> it could be a big week for markets. hope this taking some week, suggesting that. providecould information of being looser than previously thought. you have to think about a little bit, not currently, a environment which we call our biggest vulnerability. moment, one more rate
hikes for 2016. if you have volatility in markets, it will continue. what would provide the positive signal for markets? if the fed wanted to move ahead do a onerve, it has to and done approach. you have only one hike left in their. i think that the fed is going to give us a signal saying that we , but itin any hurry cannot establish itself as being ahead of the curve. i think that in leaving the current short covering rally , the u.s. dollar losing
ground against some other currencies as the risk market is moving up, i think otherwise the condition for u.s. dollar strength is still with us. and why is that? does that have to do with what the fed is doing or not doing? you have to go back about two years and think, what sparked this in the first place? was it the fed outlook or was it driven by capital flows? these capital flows seem to be mainly inspired by negative return expectations. toward ande a credit your funding somebody and .omebody has high debt levels this is currently happening. the return of investment in emerging markets does fall. look into what happened in the debate in. posts, i think
that what very important part of that had been the capital flow environment in emerging markets. ,ow much of bonds are maturing what are the implications? the implications, i am afraid, are suggesting that the u.s. dollar is getting more expensive. riskcannot bode well for a appetite going forward. anna: thanks. manus: i read a headline of the bloomberg terminal. it is in south africa. to 12.2e a loss of 12.1 billion rand. up next, we have an italy finance minister saying progress is being made to help the banks offload their bad debt. anna: we will be speaking with the former unicredit ceo after
anna: welcome back, this is "countdown." let's get the bloomberg business track. dorseytwitter boss jack has announced a management shakeup. among those going on ahead of engineering and the head of product. they leave after the firm failed -- reverse a half share price. first reported by the wall street journal yesterday, saying a deal may be announced as soon as today valued at as much as $20 billion. adidas has told the world governing body that it will
terminate the sponsorship deal four years early. that is according to a report by the bbc and is sent to be a direct result of the doping scandal. on the stories, terminal customers can head to top go. the italian finance minister says the government is conducting "a very good conversation with the european commission on the plan to help banks offload their bad debt." he says the additional measures to ease the sale of nonperforming loans will soon be introduced. >> the basis is that we all agree that npl's have to be reduced. we already have put in place on the credit market. this has dramatically shortened the time to have a resolution on those disputes. these assetson of
on bank balance sheets, which allows assets to be much less linked to the timing of those deferred assets, and new measures introduced by the government later this week will from -- this week will further facilitate npl treatment. anna: we will speak to the the banks bailed out last november and the former chairman at unicredit. let's talk a little bit about what is happening with the banks that you are chairman of. today is the deadline to receive nonbinding offers, i believe, for these four lenders. what kind of interest have you had? me firstfirst, let correct that. today is the day for the very first stage, which is simply an .xpression of interest
there is no offer whatsoever by tonight. fact, although we have weressions the interest -- have expressed the interest that we would like to receive offer today, it is simply a matter of saying we have interest in the overall dossier. after the expression of interest, these bidders will receive the so-called teaser. obviously, the market is keen to know and understand the complexion of possible buyers. are the international names in that frame? is it mainly italian names? are you seeing any interest from the domestic market? equity"cation. private
? first, a quick mention on what is the property for sale. these four banks are banks that operate in contiguous areas. banks sometimes very well rooted in their territories and these economies who have an average wealth per and income per capita significantly higher than the european average. to represent than more revenue improvement potential and cost improvement potential. we can say at this stage that we expect it to come mostly from private equities and from banks, both foreign players and italian players.
anna: we have seen a dramatic selloff in some of the recent italian banking stocks. you think that will limit interest in these assets? roberto: i don't think so. looking at the type of selloff that took place, one has to keep in mind a couple of things. the overall fundamentals of the italian banking sector have not been changed compared to six or 12 months ago. we have a new regulations for the bankruptcy proceeding which would speed up the time in which nps can go into value, as well as we tend to have a higher
coveted level. i also would like to touch a point. theng comparison with italian banking sector. a parts of the resolution, there has been a deviation of one bank with a certain coverage ratio. what has not been often this isted is that being calculated as liquidation value, which is very different from the accounting that is required for normal banks. latitude, the liquidation provides a materially lower number.
naturally, the objective is for you to achieve the highest value, the best value for investors. i want to get your take very quickly on the establishing a bad bank in italy. in one opinion, what would be the most judicious approach? asuld there be one bad bank, we have seen, for example, in the irish banking sector, or would there be a dispute as how that would constitute state funding, or should we have individual bad banks? frankly, a bank can be an important thing, but in the overall context, i think it should be put in their proper consideration. today, the italian banking sector sicu -- sector situation is no worse and possibly is
better than months ago. italian banking sector. thatalk about the factor does much better on the leverage ratios. banks haveout where almost no portfolios -- you talk about the sector that operates at sounder business models. i think all of that is very that wet, to remember almost have had no public aid .hatsoever anna: thank you so much for joining us today. chairman ofstro,
the four italian banks bailed out last fall. breaking news on the saudi arabian oil story. act $110 was not a sustainable objective but they are saying that they will not be cutting investment in oil and gas projects. has not slowedng down and they have four made it a new strategy due to the falling oil prices. chairmanhe aramco making these comments and react this morning. hd thisents in riya morning. anna: more on commodities as we go through the program. hans, we are talking about the banking sector, about european banks which is a little far away from your wheelhouse. but amazing that we're picking up some of the fallout from the
financial crisis still here in europe, in terms of nonperforming loans, bad banks. how concerned are you about the periphery of the eurozone at this point as we work our way out of the financial crisis many years ago now? have is a we fragmented banking union. what we are currently seeing in some of the peripheral countries is not really a surprise. there is a problem here. at the moment, europe is leading with many other things. you have a refugee crisis, you have the potential that should get -- that shengen could break away. what that actually means for the credit spreads in the periphery. you see the spreads are moving
into the wrong direction. all we really have to think about is what is most important. where do we need to focus our policies? as important as a banking sector is, it is much more important to rescue schengen, and it is much more important to ensure that our borders are secure on the outside border of schengen. fail, you haves a significant cost to the european economy. cost is permanent, people would see that the growth potential of the european economy would declined significantly. manus: can you put some numbers around that? junckering to what mr. said a couple of weeks ago, he
was talking about that there would be additional cost of about 3 million. but those additional cost would be just the initial costs. you cannot operate a common certain -- a common currency when you have fragmentation in the labor market, not the free movement of goods and services. that is where we have to focus. twoefore, the upcoming european summits on the 18th and 19th of february, that is not only important in respect of the doest debate, it is about the union stay together and can it maintains the schengen area? anna: when we consider what mario draghi said last week, it sounds as if you are more interested in the holding the euro together conversation then you are in whether mario draghi is going to deliver a bit more stimulus.
hans: the european central bank taking its responsibility on a moment when politicians were not willing to deliver. we always said that it could only be temporary. have a situation developed which, i think, has come to many as a surprise. the extent of the refugee crisis . while the situation as a refugee is not just down to refugee policies, i think it is much more global. we failed in north africa. that is the result we are currently seeing. europe has to respond more than any other area. the implications of that could .e far-reaching i think that the european summits are coming to a very good agreement here, a sustainable agreement. have currently in the banking sector, that is a second derivative. up next, tehran's
population and thin news came as the annual trade deficit narrowed with energy imports and there was a modest growth in exports. died in a blizzard in the united states and central park had been biggest snowfall on record. the east coast airport will resume normal service again today. marcelo will become the president after winning more than 50% of the first-round vote. the television commentator said the he would try to ensure budget is improved. bonus on theigger
previous year. two thirds of employees expect a they were 100,000 for more onerage the stories, you can head to -- >> let's check in on the markets with caroline hyde. we have commodities and equities. take us through. an it wasday we had the most since 2012. there is speculation that we could see more stimulus in china. of course, you have the u.s. central bank and it is happening
with equities continuing higher last dayslity in the with phenomenal moves. here is the equity market trading. if you look at what is happening, the volatility is going down. and you saw the concern of the table. seen u.s.e have treasuries falling with gary over a goldman sachs and it could continue rising overall. follow the advice to keep buying of treasuries?
gold.will leave you with it is an area of interest with equities. we are not seeing gold out of at this point. >> thank you very much. the iranian president begins a our correspondent has more details. what was he aiming to accomplish? roadshow and him the aim is to drum up business europe's and italy was biggest trading partner with iran before 2011. him, inill they receive
terms of the schedule with the agenda? this is the geopolitics at play. >> absolutely. and the primes minister is going to receive him on the capitol hill. and the speaker of both houses andarliament with a forum it will be attended by several hundred. companies may remain more constrained and this may be a european opportunity.
about one dozen agreements about to be signed over several years and they would be with companies like the pipeline company and the italian railway company. is theill see what benefit of italy. will exacerbate a supply headingoil and crude is up words, after dropping to the we have all of the details this morning. could the worst be over?
there are a lot of people who are producing at a loss. we will see $70 by the end of next year with citigroup out the best this could be youe of the year and mentioned the president's since becoming president and there are a lot of people who say that this will hinge on how successful they are at ratcheting up the production. we may not see the prices fall very much. >> what have they done? bets on theced the fall in the price of oil and, with another hand come increased a number of positions to get
less bearish. >> thank you. let's bring in the head of global fx strategy at morgan stanley. created wreaks havoc on currencies. you came across a great graphic and this is what we want. purchasing power index and it often shows that 69%ruble is undervalued at on that particular basis. in the context of the weaker commodities -- >> the big mac index is a popular one. it is not mine. >> how would you measure this?
>> we look at the long-term multiple and it is products and a better approach, right? , the russianoint ruble is undervalued against the canadian dollar and it takes the oil out of the equation. canadianse of the dollar, we recommend this to consider the ruble and the highest sensitivity to oil. stabilizationme it is around 30 at give or take.
it is closer to a level that is difficult for oil to decline and faced with declining oil prices in the economy and theinvestment adjusts to system and it needs to be repaid. of this,that, because russia andrable to there is a level where it is likely with ace -- there is a statistical bounce coming in in 2009 and, taking all of that together, there could be a good surprise possible.
me, as well, in progressing that withhave the potential another trait of the year and 60-70 dollars. you look at the highs, you have to go back into the 30's to find a level of oil market isand the shorted by a futures contract and people have to have potential exposures. are in line for a sudden rebound in activity and the long-term fundamentals are on the inventory side and you would have to think about the
supplies and the demand coming out of the climate conference. burn, we will to blow up the planet. side has tohat one keep the planet and it will offer a significant shift away from the demand of the economy. with the use this implications of the planets. >> my thought is that there is a skepticism with the rally. and you going forward
adjust the forward curve and it is not yet complete. you have to think about the other implications, for instance, and respect to dollar revenues and the decline with the commodity market adding to the long-term shortage in the market and many of these have dollar debt and it creates a shortage and demands for the u.s. dollar that i believe will be a big theme. >> the oil demand is growing. it may have an effect. >> thank you very much. we will talk to pan next. >> yes. a second day of stimulus speculation. we are live in tokyo.
>> welcome back. this is countdown. you are watching in paris. shakeup with the media company. withreversed a slowdown music growth in the past 12 months. thatng the athletics world they are terminating the sponsorship deal early. to becision is understood with the doping scandal. morgan stanley predicts the opposite. the10 year yield will be in range of 2-3%. morgan stanley says that they will fall to 1.75%.
for more thang include and they first isbo and the expected in march. they need to replace air claps are are -- aircrafts that 25 years old, average. >> thank you very much. we will get to the bank of japan. says that he hopes for moderation and that they are lower oilsible for prices. >> day announced a monetary outcy and the trade data is
this morning with the trade deficit narrowing on energy. let's continue this conversation. this trade data is a bit of a mixed bag. is it a negative, so to speak? >> on the whole, it is good with the trade deficit narrowed and, surplusber, it was a and a lot of that is because of with the concern going forward and the china slowdown and what happens with
the strengthening export costs. the exportmore about numbers and the decline in the export number. and thes more than 8% growth of china is problematic and it was down in the united states. , thee european union figures were up 3%. if they continue to strengthen, exports can become problematic. , how willhis week this affect the impact. >> every single piece of data will be very closely watched by the economists here, given the
decision. the economist we spoke with today said that the trade data makes it more likely and there is a lot of questions around this with the affect of the stock market tied in to whether it goes further and there is a great deal of concern with pressures on the bank of japan and the currency situation and with the waning inflation expectations. again, in the interview, he said that he thought that they were the right path. if the markets think it will ease, it may go the right way. head of the the global strategy here. the signs?read
you make the long-term commitment and it means that it will flatten. if you look at the current development, you look at how deeper you can go and you think about the negative and theyights -- rates say that, what you are doing, you do not want to go that route and i think what they are doing and what to persuade we have to live with is a strong and not weaker yen. and we at the start thought it would strengthen and everything else would go the other way and the structural outlook is actually supported
and has a lot to do with efforts and you think about the pension funds with a negative net cash flow and monetization of foreign holdings. how will this impact the global liquidity? opposite and you have the global liquidity with the following commodity prices makes mef that suspicious about the liquidity and the impact. it goes into a circle and there are circumstances here.
>> something we have here is a map of the bank of japan and when he started the reducing impact of stimulus with the weekend you on and this is what he is trying to deflect against. >> you have the exchange rate and it is the most undervalued globally. there is going to be much more that is difficult. do, it is less impactful and they move from being progressive and people do not understand that the economy has become very supply driven. it brings the deflationary circle. what's thank you.
♪ bend me shape me, any way you want me as long as you love me, it's alright bend me shape me, any way you want me you've got the power, to turn on the light shape the best sleep of your life. sleep number beds with sleepiq technology adjust any way you want it. the bed that moves you. only at a sleep number store.
there is a lot to get to this morning and we saw the equity markets really rally and pick up where we left off. dubbing the most since 2012. wehave the biggest rally and have brent above the dollars a barrel. he calls the crash on the way is is volatility is back at the level we have not seen since 2009. >> over a goldman sachs, they withd about investors other asset classes. we have talked about this in
forming divergent views during the questions and we could see 2.3% and we'reas talking about a bull market. futures forith the equities. 83 and youstill the see the futures going between positive and negative at the moment. games.s a little bit of >> caroline hyde joins us. >> the oils -- oil is still
trading up after the rally. still down 25% this year. chairman said that oil was not sustainable and they created a new strategy to cope with the prices. japan fell to the lowest since 1988 with more efficient vehicles and the annual trade with a weakered yen helping to spur the exports. notnd 70% so far, it is over yet. the senior economic adviser says 18 havex will drop and
the blizzard in the unite states. all broadway shows were canceled for the first time. the east coast airport is set to resume after 13,000 were canceled over the weekend. >> it certainly looks chilly on the east coast of america. let's go to david. taken away. >> we are experiencing the coldest day and it is colder in london.it is here let's get back to the markets. it is a good day to be long on
equities. have put equities together a string of gains here and we are up and facing the and it gains from 2000 was creative. and weakeing equities spots across the market with the dollar yen slightly stronger. deal that came out that was misleading and there was a trade surplus that was also because of the imports collapsing and falling more than exports with the dollar yen actually seeing spurts of strength and not everyone is
convinced with the rally. and are on the way down this is the 10 year yield. of it is 80%id, stocks and we will go back to you guys. >> let's hope he wraps it up tomorrow. guest's bring in the next . great to see you. marketshow the stock that were less than the member assets and the stock markets were valued at less than the book value in the company and
you cannot read the name. there is more than there were five years ago. is this something that strikes you as a buying opportunity? >> it is not just a price ratio. it is certainly fair to say that you have areas that look interesting and they haven't found attractive, like brazil. marked like greece, italy, they are weak and they look attractive on that type of measure. the risk proclivities are down. >> you talked about seeing some flows in the first week.
where do you see the stability coming into the market? what gets me is blindingly bullish headlines and this is nothing more than a short rally with naysayers who say this is the opportunity to bailout now. >> i would not want to disagree with martin. that is trouble. i think the most important thing to say is that it is difficult to tell what is going on and calling things on a day-to-day is impossible and we take to a long-term view and see more opportunities to invest money at better returns and it is not just emerging markets. there are some that are as clear as they can be. >> you have a baseline
assumption around where we are now with investors at three years from here? >> we take a term view on this and we call oil prices and who knows? we can say that there are marginal cost to deliver new pay ats and that will team part and it will not happen for a number of years. i think we can say that we will see a longer-term price higher and we have a better idea than anyone else. >> this is about the central bank and there was a recovery of the bank of japan and the federal reserve with rhetoric and actions. end is the discussion
when you have these intonations and what will come? >> we have the longer-term view and we do not worry about what the central bank says. >> forgive me. the markets literally spin around on their heads and they theigher to rally to beat band and it is down to the fact that you see the central bank expectations. they better not disappoint. >> we are invested in equities and we have more money than we had and that is as much as you can say. what can you say about investors? they are very nervous. they are considering, again, this going on the back burner again and the expectation is the rates are rising as they reverse
the trend and have to consider what investors start getting back into this and that is a big change in mindset from where we were. it the investment in equity markets and it says a framework and it exists. >> you take a long-term view and you make the assumption the global banks remain of accommodative and supportive. >> that has been the trend over the last year's and it would be fair to say that they would take a view of protecting asset prices. i think we should take a lesson that there has been a dangerous game in betting against the sovereign countries that manage debt markets and it is something we should bear in mind. with next, more on the oil
barrel and the question is if with barclaysin talking about $40 and you see brent with the technical plays in the markets and the volatility on the oil on the movehighs with a bit of a with crude. >> they are saying saudi arabia is fighting oil prices. >> carolyn has details. >> jack dorsey announced a shakeup with the company. toy leave after they failed slow down and reverse the growth in the past 12 months. the athletics world governing body was told to terminate the
sponsorship deal early. the decision is understood to be the direct results of sweeping. are discussing a merger with tyco. this is according to people familiar with the matter. valued at deal may be $20 million. much.nk you very it is a european visit with hadtions lifted and john the details. what is he aiming to accomplish with the visit? six ministers with 120 to getsmen and he hopes the ball rolling with contracts.
>> give me a sense of how the at times receive him. >> yes. togetherics and trade with the minister rolling out imperial red carpet and he will meet him on capitol hill and they will get dinner with a view of a roman forum. already, the + official says there will be agreements signed that are worth 17 billion euros. >> there have been close relationships between them in the past. what is in it for them this time around and what do they hope to achieve? >> italy has big ambitions and hopes to get more then what made
it the biggest trading partner before the sanctions with a series of businessmen who want to attend this dinner and the officials said that you only get to go down once in your lifetime and the infrastructure and machinery, you name it and they want to be with it. >> thank you very much. let's go back on the visit. >> they are considering an ipo and they have ruled out selling the reserves. we have a little bit of news coming on this story. >> we have heard from the ceo who said that there are a couple of interesting things with saudi's not responsible for low prices and that they will not cut the production.
one option would be selling off stakedustry and selling a in the parent company. are notsaid, they and mostt the ipo people have two and 50 billion andels of oil in the ground the global oil deposits. that through a little bone andnternational investors it gives signs outside. >> they have switched.
they think about the oil price and the week before last. out the oilund price and they became increasingly bullish. and you will see the bets are fundsh and you have hedge that say that they have reached the bottom. >> they managed to make a huge and dramatic call. asset's get back to the management. we have some companies reporting some insight ahead of global
equities this week and you continue to be supportive of this with oil not having fallen any further. >> i think it is a difficult decision. and it is not in a long-term interest to consummate this deal with both sides and we think that it is absolutely compelling strong fit for the companies. there is a lot of synergy. a lot of strategic logic and financial risk that is important and we need something on various and we to create value do not think that is unreasonable. supportive, we are of the deal.
>> where are you progressively adding volatility with equity territory. the where do you selectively add? >> it has been brutal and you talked about the oil price and, again, it is a short-term movement in oil prices and we have been looking. >> the medium and long-term is what my boss always tells me. of looking atls it, we see a change selectively within the commodities space and it makes small additional purchases over the last months flexible costs and what will be tough next to the hit withr and it is
thechemical space and drilling in the united states was weak as a result with the strong balance sheet and this would be the kind of business we look at that has good long-term potential. >> is there potential to take us away from the oil story on the day today? does it have the potential for 2016? >> it will bring back fundamentals on the ground and, what we have seen is the conditions are actually quite make and it is not easy to money in the world with many not having been there and it has been a tough backdrop when you come to the numbers.
good examples with a cautious outlook on the ground and that is probably as good as you will see on this with companies beat in up pretty heavily last week and a company that gave the earning guidance downgrade and maintained the share prices with some idea of how the sentiment has come. >> this is a big debate out there with the recession. this goes back to the chinese story and what was said over the weekend with the chinese saying they should implement more capital controls. of thef what we think
world with investment is investment. >> it has driven marginal growth and the growth economy to take that out to some degree. that is a broad pocket of growth and a potential for recovery outside of china. people look at the natives for the commodity prices and see the impact of the commodities and they are not yet looking at the benefits coming through on the consumer side. i saw a numbers that said china forbenefiting and it was numbers -- money. >> the benefits or more dispersed and do not come screaming at you from the terminal as much. thank you for joining us this morning. great to speak with you, investment manager. >> 30 minutes until the start of this trading day.
so your business can get back to business. sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business. >> welcome to on the move. we are counting you down to the european open current i am guy johnson. asian stocks expanding a global rebound as investors bet on the central banks aimless. >> -- stimulus. . we begin the week with both contracts above $32 a barrel and -- iran's