tv Bloomberg Markets BLOOMBERG January 25, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm EST
♪ >> from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, good afternoon and here's what we're watching at this hour. extendings failing at that rally. setting the tone for global markets yet again. and treasury.ld walmart came in concord and it is now packing up and leaving. walmart shuts down hundreds of stores. super bowl 15 is set. taking on cam newton in the parent -- the carolina panthers big game. was this the best matchup? first, let's head to the markets desk ramy has the latest. >> it has been a bit of a seesaw day in the early afternoon right now. our markets are basically heading a little lower. the s&p 500 is down. the dow jones by about .5%.
we were down as much as nearly 100. the nasdaq is down paired with the nasdaq, on track for its worth -- worst decline since november of 2008. imf function, the health of the s&p 10 sectors. it is the same narrative for the entire day. energy stocks are continuing to be the biggest laggard, down 2.8% by sector. materials are down with dow being the biggest laggard here. financials led by jpmorgan, wells fargo, by about 1.4%. the big laggard is crude. it continues to fall just barely .ff of lows right now day, this isof the
after saudi arabia said they were going to be able to pull back on expenditures and keep going. to not care what other people are saying. of notable stocks. amazon in particular. interestingly, in revenue should beat expectations. it is saying it is being driven by the e-commerce trend and strong amazon prime adoption, which gives you a more free delivery service. it is keeping the price target at $750 and maintaining a vibrating there. down off of its session highs here. it appears to be finally getting a home off of cheaper oil.
in the first few weeks of the year, we're seeing this might be a turnaround. david: we will talk oil and walmart. let's check on the first word is. mark crumpton has more from the news desk. mark: the troop commander who says the islamic extremist group boko haram is expected to -- of carrying out a suicide attack today. nearly 30 people were killed and 65 wounded one for attackers -- in central bombings. islamic militants have killed year ofs in the sixth insurgency. whether in eastern asia has been blamed for more than 55 deaths. frigid temperatures have disrupted transportation and brought the first snow in southern china in a most 50 years. temperatures in taiwan's capital plunged to a 16 year low of 39
an areafahrenheit in where most people do not have central heating in their homes. hoveratures normally around 60 degrees. it will take several days for the u.s. to get back to normal after a storm that dropped more than two feet of snow over the weekend. airports are slowly reopening over the weekend. offices in washington will remain closed. damage from two wildfires last billion ined $1 losses according to a preliminary estimate by the state's insurance department. blazes began in september burning more than 200 square miles. ask people died and thousands more were forced to flee their homes. president obama is weighing in on the vie to win the democratic nomination for president. he said hillary clinton's strength could sometimes be her weaknesses and he also said
bernie sanders has the luxury of being a complete longshot in the race to succeed him. with all due respect will be live in iowa all week. do not miss john heilemann and mark -- extensive coverage right here on bloomberg television at 5:00 p.m. new york time. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 150 news bureaus around the world. david, since you are from north carolina, do i have to guess who you are rooting for in the super bowl? the first federal reserve meeting for 2016 will be the main focal point for market this week. janet yellen and company are almost universally expected to hold rates steady. forstors will be scouring the fed's next move. the fedose who said will not follow through with the four rate hikes projected for the year.
>> inflation will go lower, and certainly, that march is off the table, even april. that's something from the fed means we do not hike in march. carl, let me start with you to get a sense. there will be no press conference. how do you think we will process what we have had? it is incumbent upon them to signal it was not a policy mistake to move in. they will hold fast. not out of pride. but out of potential market to be as the fed appears
second-guessing themselves and considering unwinding the rate hike. that is taking basically five out of the picture. plus for this year. that would significantly change the signal to the market and they do not want to do that because the markets will then worrying what the fed knows that we have not fully processed yet. instead, i think it is a placeholder fed meeting. they tinker with economic tolook and suddenly allude and do no more and see you in march. david: why is the fed so dead set on raising rates? >> a good question. i think the problem is credibility. they backed themselves into a corner and told everyone they would raise rates. they probably did not feel 100% comfortable at that time but they do not have a choice. a similar dynamic this year. hiking cycle and
it becomes difficult to back down from that. faceifficulties they will is they have to sure markets in without spooking markets about the policy mistake idea. it is a difficult thing to pull off. david: we are focused on the fed here the fed of japan meeting this week. the central bank story has become wider and bigger. >> because the fed is the only central bank in town look to tighten policy or move in the other direction and try to move a further stimulus in economies. that makes the job that much harder for the fed has air having a tightening of financial provisions from a stronger dollar and those trends will only continue if the fed charges into the opposite direction by raising rates. i agree with the sentiment in the video segment there.
the fed will not be able to deliver this year. my expectation is just two. they will not signal that at the meeting but they will get a hint based on the downgrading of the economic outlook. david: what are we hearing from economists on wall street? is there much unanimity on wall street? >> there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment. there are all these unknowns in the economy now. headwinds from oil. you have the deflation getting imported either from china or the lower oil price. who knows how that will play out. economists do not know or one thing people are talking about is the idea that the fed goes in the firefighting mode and then somewhere down the line, it is forced to enter the rate hiking cycle much faster than i would like to. hopefully, that is not the kind
of thing that happens that we will see. people are talking about that sort of risk. rate hike being priced into the markets right now is september. that was the next opportunity, a 50% odds of a rate increase. it tells you the markets are already resigning themselves to less aggressive -- >> we have got new economic indications about the likelihood of that happening. quite it basically looks at the yield curve and sees whether the yield curve is implying a recession. the model issuance like it or percent chance of recession in that 12 months. it was something like 20%.
the idea we will get a recession in the next 12 months is not like he according to the treasury market but the probability could change quickly over the next 12 months p are we have unknowns in the market. we saw the productivity index today, which is very low. we're waiting to see how it all plays out. on thelastly, aps terminal indicating the strength of the dollar -- very quickly explain to someone like me. >> a lot of people take a cursory view and say this only matters to exporters. it goes well beyond that. if you are a domestic producer and are competing against goods, the strong dollar is also squeezing and margins. if you are a u.s. worker in a multinational company, or competing with multinational companies, the price of a u.s. worker goes up as the dollar becomes more expensive. you may not like you got a raise but you are more pensive as
large employers decide to it is bad news for workers. david: thank you very much, carl and tracy. coming up, it is one of the most read stories online today. to shut downan hundreds of stores. mcdonald's posting best quarterly growth in almost four years thanks to a buddhist in sales from an all-day rec fest. is the promise finally taking hold? halliburton is bracing for more cutbacks in the worst market since the 1980's more assets -- all of that is coming up. ♪
david: welcome back. bernie sanders is blasting the merger agreement between johnson controls and titan international in vermont. he is calling them corporate deserters. this would let johnson move to ireland where taxpayer's are cheaper. shares will own about 16% of the new company. twitter is losing more member -- more members in executive leadership. trying to revive growth after the stock lost half its value in 12 months. a person familiar with the matter says twitter this week will add two new board member's to help guide's turnaround. in the santa clara area, homeowners think they're coming
out ahead. the hint -- san jose luxury home is written for $10,000 per night. that is your bloomberg business flash. let's head back to the market desk for ramy to check on movers. ramy: oil and gas are in focus now. let's go ahead and take a look at what is happening. much pushingetty session lows. the best today rally we have in his 2008. we are down around the $30 handler here. we saw a plunger earlier today when saudi arabia's that they were going to keep on pushing it managers in order to keep prices low and defend market share. not only is oil falling but gases also falling. index. a aaa retail gas
you can see now it is $1.83 this itt year, well off the highs saw ever since the peak of 2015, back in the summer. for this year, it has fallen every day since january 5. oneer than this by about dollars and $.90. let's take a look at what is happening with the energy index. apparently session lows down 2.8% here. just five of 40 members are actually up on the year. let's take a look at some of the biggest players. exxon mobil, s&p energy index down. pretty tremendously. .own 25% it is pretty interesting.
you can see we are actually at the lowest right here since the 2009 recession dating back the past several years here. clearly oil taking their fall on the texas economy in the dallas fed is now reporting economics just today. this is negative or -- negative territory. the lowest since the 2009 recession. amazing numbers here. with texas, you may not be surprised. david: thank you very much. walmart has been so successful that it has forced many smaller, local stores out of business. shares are under pressure, down 28% in the past year. the retail giant is shutting down stores. looking into the story, you focus on one town, oriental north carolina, as the place where it had a mom-and-pop grocery store, walmart came in, so what happened here? really months.
>> in a year and in some cases year, walmart has completely driven companies out of business. normally, we have known for decades people have talked about walmart coming in and hurting businesses because it offers lower prices and it has got a big corporate brand and hurting mom-and-pop shops. walmart has said he might not have a family home -- family hard drive store but you have got walmart to go to. now walmart is announcing the close of 150 stores around the u.s. and 100 of those arts all format express stores they were trying out. walmart takingt a critical eye on what stores it storesep open and what will close. we are starting to see some of the effects not only where walmart comes in but also what happens when they pull out. as you mentioned, it means a town does not have a grocery store or a pharmacy. they may have a gas station and a dollar store but everything else is a 20 minute drive away. david: is it because the storms
do not -- the stores did not walmart's it because body -- bottom line has changed? >> from what the company says, it indicates its takes a more critical eye at what areas they will be in and what areas they will not because the companies under pressure. u.s. sales are slowing and profits are being hurt by higher labor. there is not a indication the stores are performing poorly. doinge cases, they were so well they were putting everyone else out of business. walmart said, with as much detail they would give, that they would focus instead on bread-and-butter, the supercenters, the big, massive, sprawling stores, and in the neighborhood markets, grocery store style stores, and abandon the smaller areas they were going into. it is a quick about-face because in 2014, they were talking about how these were doing well and they would open another 90.
the index and it looks like people were actually going to take mcdonald's into consideration when they were thinking where will i go to eat. takingdo you know who is advantage of it? general clientele? >> i think new people are being brought in because it is the type of thing where you do not think coffee and a method. you do not equate that with fast food the way you do a big mac. millennials who have an like, i do not want to eat fast food because it is dirty or whatever, they are like, whatever, a cup of coffee and a family and i can on with my day. david: looking at a broader trend, the movement has been toward fast casual for something a little bit higher end. he was sit down and eat. is that what is starting to change because of what we see with mcdonald's? >> that is what a find fascinating. fast food is done.
during that time, fast food companies have upped their game, cage free eggs, health-conscious consumers really want this. starting to close the gap at the same time. is one piece of what mcdonald's is trying to do. they are trying to increase in make the orders right, etc. that is working well as well? >> one thing they are doing, two things for two dollars. compared to their competitors, offering or dollar price point. david: all this happening, it does not seem it is that novel. say about the leadership of the company, that it is returning to doing what the customers want and getting stuck right? these are basic tenants of
running a restaurant or a business. >> you would be shocked how many ceo's's do not ask -- do not listen to customers. they have been asking for years and mcdonald's has kept saying operationally it will not work for us. the new ceo says we will do this and see how it goes. early success so far are we will see how it will continue. thank you so much, michelle. for more fast commentary, gabf or search for bloomberg gadfly on the web. it will not cut spending amid the global glut. moves in the commodities markets. ♪
crumpton. the u.s. supreme court says people serving life terms for murders they committed as teenagers must have the chance for freedom. this extended 2012 decision that struck down automatic life terms with no auto -- with no parole for teens with life terms. even those convicted long ago must now be considered for for a or given a chance new sentence. a video by the islamic state showed extremist committing other atrocities. the militants seen in the video died in the paris attacks or in the aftermath. have an sanctions lifted, iran has been emerging from international isolation. the rain president arrived today , on the first stop in a european tour. expected to sign contracts with a number of companies including
airbus. police in southern california are hunting for three scabies from an orange county prison. officials think the trio fled hours before their absence was even noticed. they made ropes with -- from bedsheets to break out. it is not clear whether the men had help from the inside with their escape. global news 24 hours a day from the bloomberg first word desk. i am mark crumpton. marketsommodities closing in new york or let's look at some of the biggest movers. gold is back in fashion. investors are seeking a haven from the route in global stock. backed by precious metals are seeing the most inflows in a year. oil resuming its decline today after the biggest two-day rally in more than seven years. saudi arabia said low prices will not reduce its spending on energy projects. watchings to discuss, from bloomberg intelligence come let me ask you, the overarching
story when it comes to production, what are we seeing in that sector? >> in general, you have areas sentiment firmly entrenched. it does not take a lot to move the needle the other way. opecntary last week from today, moving the needle but also creating much more volatility in the overall space. david: let's talk about what we heard from opec today. is there signs here we're starting to see -- saudi arabia more than expected? vincent? vincent: pushing out higher cost producers. this is more than petro economics. about thert of sectarian tensions in the region. sunni versus shia. that is the overarching theme as we head into 2016.
david: if you were to distill the message from opec, and overhang to do something about it? i think there is a desire for a collective solution. saudi does not do anyone any favors anytime soon. companies you the are looking at in particular? vincent: we think about four q earnings season, it is less about or you and also about 2016. we look at two basins in particular, the permian and appellation. oil, appellation for gas. we're looking for names like pioneer. what they have to say. it has been much more resilient in terms of the ability to produce. cap x, down significantly but output for 2016 could be fairly resilient. mind also one to keep in for natural gas.
they will elect the cut 40%. and yet output for 2016 will likely be higher, likely between 15 and 80%. david: thank you so much. looking of earnings, let's at the second biggest oilfield service, halliburton. the company posted a first-quarter net loss of $21 million and is raising more cut that -- cutbacks. joining me is david from our bureau in houston. let me ask you first of all what the company is saying is behind the losses? >> the same thing i was talking about. absolutely. -- itwere to look about is more or less gridlock. they are waiting on customers to start spending again and customers do not know when or where or how much they want to start spending because they have
no view of what oil prices will be. they do not know what is up or down, you cannot make plans are in are literally taking this on a by crew basis and a week i week basis. for knowing what our activity level will be. for halliburton, they are saner be more charges ahead of or restructuring and laying people off. they told us already, they had to cut nearly 4000 more workers, bringing the total to 22,000. add that to what has already cut about 34,000 during this time. we have seen a lot of people come -- cutting back. david: trying to get regulatory approval for that, how close to that happening are they and how skeptic they are about the deal? >> a lot of people are waiting for that, to decipher the words. so far, halliburton has said on
the earnings call today they presented a plan earlier this month to the u.s. doj on additional assets that they could sell. probably, they have only announced $5 billion in revenue worth of assets. they said they could sell assets with as much revenue as seven point billion dollars. we are not even in threshold yet in one analyst suggested it go as high as $10 billion worth of revenue in assets. so far, they are not what other as they are likely willing to put up for sale. we do not know the payback it for the regulators either. david: are they concerned about regulators in other capitals around the world #>> absolutely. the u.s. doj in washington. the european commission as well is expressing concern, mainly with the thought that the number two in the number three service merge and notd have as much competition the more.
they're waiting to be convinced on how selling more at is in certain kinds of at its would allow them to be enough competition out there. david: i was talking to vince on what he was listening for in the call spirit is a him what you are saying, still not a huge amount of clarity about what they are doing in the new year. >> no. if anything, they say it will be another -- another tough time in 2016. they say they expect the customers to get back to picking up activity again once they can feel like oil prices are sort of knowlizing and once they where the trough will be in oil prices, they will ramp up activity and then he again. until this uncertainty and lack clarity, that is keeping them from doing anything specific. david: thank you. coming up in the next 20 minutes of bloomberg markets, a week to go until the iowa caucuses. the democratic race in a virtual dead heat.
hillary clinton and bernie sanders r mapping out different paths to winning votes are it the panthers will face the broncos on february 7 area the cost of getting a ticket for the big game. bowl,g for the super under armour just announced a new deal with the rock. our investors impressed? coming up. ♪
minus one week until the island caucus. there is a tremendous amount of behind the scenes logistics and oregon -- organization before caucus day. the signs to winning the iowa caucus, joining me, walk through this. look to see who prevailed in the end. this is a difficult technical thing. how does it work? >> campaigns have in planning for months. they have been organizing. their training. they are -- across the state. matters. everyone is trying to get as many people to the caucuses as tough. once there, they -- there are some checks in the ways the rules are written that help you out and give you an edge. campaigns are not taking anything for granted.
to train the volunteers and captains to understand the rules and how it all works so when they are caucusing, they can get every advantage they can. david: as you look around and see campaigns prepare for this, or any doing a better job than others? >> a lot of people are talking about the ted cruz campaign on the republican side. ted cruz has gotten a lot of thersements, especially in evangelical community. the organization has impressed people here. volunteersver 10,000 and are holding the caucus training, like other campaigns. the tedious through part of what caucusing means. selectt that in order to delegates here to go on to state conventions where they end up
choosing the presidential nominee of the national convention, the process starts here. there is deathly a process involved. they are training supporters to stay late in the caucuses and endure the long vote in the last one standing so when the delicate selection process happens, they are still there. cruz, you are familiar with him as a college debater from prince in. is there any risk that if the campaign spends too much money on this or phones is too much money on iowa, it is doing something not applicable to what will happen in new hampshire and south carolina? that what you're saying is they will be betting on the momentum they will get on it? do not underestimate the momentum you could get from winning iowa. it could catapult you pretty far into the contest. as we saw for 2012, it is not the whole thing.
what iowa is here is the first chance to show the rest of the country that you have your stuff together and you can organize it to volunteer effort and get out the vote and train supporters to or to be ready forward whatever comes on election day. winning is great. youif you could also show have the foresight and organization to do well, it sends signals to the rest of the country and it does help in later contests. david: thank you so much and check out his rumor on the caucus, or he calls an almost anachronistic tradition. interesting., very we will be live from iowa all this week ahead of the caucasus. do not ask -- do not miss right here at 5:00 eastern time. time now for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. economists are more pessimistic on future sales and profits than
they were last fall. slower economic growth is also predicted. largest proportionate expected race in 2014. ford motor is going out of japan. the country that made it difficult to grow sales or make sustained office. carsyear, ford sold 1500 in trucks and indonesia animals 5000 in japan where it has accused the government of protecting domestic brands. users thisset for week. the music streaming service will have original content from partners including the in espn. the rollout debuts in the u.k., germany, and sweden. bloomberg is the/peerless head back to the market test on the latest on what is going on.
>> i am looking at some stocks in contrast, numbers of's and downs. want to go to the tech sector. amazon as well as apple. amazon is up about one and a expectspercent that it the company will beat expectations when it comes to revenue. they're keeping the price target as well as the buy rating. strong crime adoption as well as some e-commerce they are seeing there. following the1% fiscal 116 first-quarter report. it might not be as good as apple and investors. ubs, forecasting 75 million to 78 million sold in a quarter. apple is expected to report a
year on year increase in terms of sale. i want to look at mcdonald's as well as aaa. mcdonald's right now, look at the number. $120 and change. it is trading at a record here it -- record. is because ofoday the all-day breakfast increasing same-store sales from mcdonald's up. velti to an estimate of 3.2% or so. this happens when investors are happy, when investors who are in the long are not happy. we have been talking about the health scare happening in the past few months. everything, share prices have lost about one third of the value. just coming out saying to pull remains in in change overvalued. about 20%.uld drop taking a look at other sectors right now, let's take a look at
financial stocks. wells fargo also down about 2%. the s&p's third-biggest sector, including industrials as well as energy. verbal 50 is set. the panthers and the cardinals, 49-15 on sunday. that is why they call him superman. a big day for peyton manning as well as the denver broncos defense, they won 2815. it is their fourth trip to the big game. you have a piece on the terminal about all that the ticket brokers are doing to prevent having what we had last year. remind us what happened and how fans who wanted to go to the game were left out -- >> there were a lot of speculative short sellers the beginning of this time and it
ended up that a lot of the tickets out there were held in the hands of a small amount of people in the realized there would be high demand as they got closer. prices went up and could not fill the orders earlier. fans do not have tickets already purchased. companies went out of business. stub hub had to reach into its own pockets to fill the orders it had broken in its own marketplace. everything went wrong. everybody in that world is looking for ways to protect both their own business and customers. explain how the tickets are allocated. it is not like the airline will get 50%. these are allocated among brokers. quite exactly. none of them go up to public sale. other 75% are distributed to teams. in the game total, 5% and
everybody else, a small amount. what the teams do is give them to vips. we have companies that pay up front. to get their hands on the tickets. there are brokers that have a majority of the available tickets left. it lets them's it on the inventory, dictate the market if they want. if it ends up being a game like this, that will probably end up being high demand because of the location. they're in a good position. david: the average ticket price is $6,000 ahead. how will they make sure what happened last year did not happen again? >> for starters, a lot of people burned last year realized they were selling a lot in the beginning and make test that may not be the right way to go. other people that would normally be selling right now, they are
saying, let me make sure i can get a ticket. read off the bat, there are people from last year. allanies like stub hub and these market sites, they are being more diligent in who they are letting self. said you want to sell a super bowl ticket, they do not know us, they do not have the reputation of someone who will self i've thousand dollars or pay more. are more conscious, sellers are more conscious, and the marketplaces are more conscious. david: you mentioned the favorability of this location for the super bowl. geography matters. >> absently. it is huge to be in silicon valley where there is a lot of wealth and corporations and they want to get the clients in the game. this is super 50. the nfl has been playing this up the entire year. this biggeroing than a lot of super bowls in the past. you mix those things, it is a
hot ticket off the back. having peyton manning and possibly the last season, a few hundred miles away, that is great. if arizona had one yesterday, that would be even better. will show up there because it has not been in a while. the location is good and it is a big a. on bloomberg up markets under armour is gaining momentum with the public, landing major stars to rep the brand. can the popularity breakthrough with investors? ♪
star. >> they have been doing outside the box things with marketing. they have done a deal with copeland, going out of the traditional athletic sort of round. he was a wwe star, athletic, pumps a lot of weight. in shape. it is not like they are getting a couch potato. he is a worldwide film star. that is what they are buying into. this is a company trying hard to do that. are we seeing signs #-- signs? they get them young and end up being big stars.
football does not have as much of an impact. you go to buy a pair of football , and it is really a matter of performance. as far as the stock, the worry on wall street is that they have had such a great run, there is concern about slowdowns in growth. morgan stanley downgraded the stock $60. concerns about him losing market share. david: thank you. coming up in the next hour of bloomberg markets ahead of the federal reserve today rate meeting, tomorrow, we will bring you an economics professor. as up next. ♪
betty: good afternoon, i'm betty liu. here's what we're watching at this hour. stocks are now taking another plank lower. oil resuming it selloff, investors settling too heavily on more stimulus from around the world. withon controls is merging tyco to take the tech space to ireland and it's already prompting outrage on the campaign trail. bernie sanders calls it a disaster for america. can washington stop the deal? the -- the twitter executive carousel keeps spinning. jack dorsey aims for a turnaround. can he continue to keep the trust and morale of his employees?