tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg January 25, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EST
betty: good afternoon, i'm betty liu. here's what we're watching at this hour. stocks are now taking another plank lower. oil resuming it selloff, investors settling too heavily on more stimulus from around the world. withon controls is merging tyco to take the tech space to ireland and it's already prompting outrage on the campaign trail. bernie sanders calls it a disaster for america. can washington stop the deal? the -- the twitter executive carousel keeps spinning. jack dorsey aims for a turnaround. can he continue to keep the trust and morale of his employees? we are now about one hour away
from the close of trade on this monday after a snowy weekend here in new york. i want to bring in remy innocency of, who has the latest. take a look at where we do stand right now. .he s&p 500, 1891 right now the dow is down just at the 100 point mark. this had been as low as 120 points and we are headed back in that direction. the nasdaq right now contract for its worst monthly fall since 2008. the big reason, of course, is with oil. let's go into my bloomberg terminal. i want to show you something really interesting. this is the movement with oil, as well as the s&p intraday, just today. the yellow line here, you can see, is the price of oil. you can see that basically for the most part they are moving in
tandem. when oil rises, so does the s&p. you can see that this is where we are right now. the 3:00 p.m. market session lows, barely ticking higher right now. that's just intraday. let's take a look at what's happening year to date. right now you can see basically that it is fairly similar. you can see that in the early part of 2015 they were basically moving in tandem, but then in the june to july time we saw that oil basically started to do a plunge. the s&p tried to hold on and tried to hold on, then it gave up the ghost in early august. after that we do see the commodity as well as the s&p trying to move again, once again in tandem. where we areurse right now, with oil trading just above the $30 handle. let's see, i think that's it. let's go ahead and take a look at -- what else do we have?
betty: let's look at energy, leading us lower. ramy: let me just click right in here. all right. before we do that, let's go -- here we are. you can see it right now, right now we can see that eight out of 10 s&p sectors are now in the red. health care just flipping nine out of 10. energy, no surprise, leading the laggards as it has all day. near session lows, 3% materials not too far behind. financials down one and a half percent. .etty: thank you, ramy let's get a check on the headlines this afternoon. mark crumpton has more from the news desk. that it's -- 36
deaths have been blamed on that monster snowstorm from over the weekend. 12,000 flights were canceled. schools and government offices are closed in maryland, virginia, and the district of columbia. seven people were hurt after a miami flight headed to italy was hit by severe turbulence. the flight was forced to make an emergency landing in canada. the airline spokesman said three flight attendants and four passengers were transported to the hospital for further and a uh and the injuries are serious. a michigan court of appeals judge denied the request of forts teachers to end their sickout. the judge said that there is no proof that the union or the individual activists are behind. schools have been forced to close repeatedly over the last two weeks. teachers are upset over pay and poor working conditions. increase the prime minister is marking one year in office with another crisis, heading towards a showdown with creditors over
the countries social security reforms. he wants taxpayers to raise contributions while not cutting primary pensions. ted cruz has won an endorsement from a former rival, rick perry. the endorsement from his fellow texan and former governor is one of his most high profile today. rick perry abandoned his second race for the white house after 96 -- after 90 days. respect" will be coming live from iowa all week. don't miss the extensive coverage beginning at 5 p.m. new york time. day.l news, 24 hours per i'm mark crumpton, back to you. betty: thank you so much. it's basically been a seesaw day for stocks. they are solidly now in the red. the rally that we saw at the end of last week seems to be based on the premise that the ecb and other central banks would prop
up asset prices. is this really the case? earlier mark barton and i spoke to danny blanchflower. >> the likelihood over the last week or so is that we have realized that contrary to what the fed said in december when they argued that the risks were balanced, risks are clearly to the downside and we are seeing moves on the ecb that they are presumably going to move to have more stimulus. last week we saw mark carney back off from his claim that i always thought was silly, that a rate rise was going to come into focus at the end of the year and i think we are learning what i said in december when the fed raised, that was fingers crossed hope economics and at the time i said i thought that the 50-50 chance that the next move might be a cut. a number of people around the world might be coming in to that view. risks are clearly to the downside in gathering, putting central banks in a pickle.
that's essentially what you're going to see, more stimulus, but the problem is that rates are already at the zero lower balance. >> as you mentioned carty, i must bring them up. only a few months ago he said the rate picture in the u.k. would come into sharper relief at the turn of the year and as you know last week he basically said that now is not the time to raise interest rates. slated forerve to be his ability to communicate the path of u.k. interest rates? >> i think that he does and the markets have been doing that. we had guidance that didn't work and that no one believed. then he made these silly statements at jackson hall and at the time i said it did not in any sense look like that.
i think that we are in a pickle right now, perhaps comparable to 2008. and then what happened was that the mpc underestimated the global impact of the slowing of the world's biggest economy. mark carney appears to have underestimated the impact of the slowing of the worlds second-largest economy. he should essentially probably stick to saying other stuff rather than the giving us forecasts because every time he gives them the market doesn't believe them and he turns out to be wrong. we are going to see another forecast in the february inflation report that's probably going to have to backtrack as it has done every time since he's been governor, telling us that everything was wonderful and it was all going to pick up. the worry is that we are at a turning point downwards and they failed to spot it again. is any central banker getting it right?
>> mario draghi is trying to convince the committee that stimulus should happen. if you read the minutes it was clearly a close call between those who wanted more stimulus now and not later. i think that the central banks don't actually want to be in the position once again of having to put in stimulus mostly because rates are still at zero. they haven't got much wrote -- much room to maneuver, they could go negative in the me back to more quantitative easing. the fiscal authorities in the u.k. are not helping them, although in france you can see that he has decided that an elections coming and it is time to start loosening policy and create jobs. they are all in the bit of a pickle. >> are we ever going to see rates rising in the u.k.?
>> i think the next step will be more stimulus, not a rate rise. mark carney, i don't know. maybe at some point he will hint about that but you have suit -- certainly heard several members talking about more stimulus and not raising rates. it's quite clear that the rate rises are off the table and increasingly that is the case at the fed as well. that was again danny blanche lower joining us -- blanche flour joining us earlier. this year investors are paying a premium to own the newest desks out there. we are going to explore how this could impact prices and the markets going forward. johnson controls, the latest money to move its company overseas. to saveto ireland millions. we will discuss why it's got
betty: welcome back to "bloomberg markets your quote -- markets. while -- markets." we're at the lows of the session, the s&p is being let down lower, as i mentioned earlier, by energy stocks. take a look at the dow jones, pretty much tracking along the same in the session. the nasdaq of course has some
big tech earnings that are out this week, including facebook and apple. so, watch those momentum stocks and how they trade this week. it is also time for the bloomberg business flash. some of the biggest business stories in the news, mcdonald's is reporting fourth-quarter earnings that beat analysts. the culprit here, recovering demand in china. here is the ceo, steve easterbrook, speaking about china today. >> we remain confident in the potential of this important market and the strategies we have in place to expand the brand even further. in fact we plan to open over 250 restaurants in china in 2016. betty: mcdonald's shares are rising, as you can see. on the way at sprint. a person familiar with the matter says that they are by 2500 their workforce
people as part of the cost savings plan. representing about 7% of the total workforce. apple plans to introduce a smaller version of the five s iphone in march. tech industry sources say that it will feature faster chips with expanded capacities that will reportedly retail for less than most of apples other phones . apple reports their earnings tomorrow after the bell. businessour bloomberg flash update. treasuries rose for the first time in three days today as oil and stocks declined. still, there is plenty of handwringing about liquidity and illiquidity in the markets, even in the deepest treasuries. joining us now is alexandra skaggs and our gadfly columnist, lisa abramowicz. glowing liquid --
growing liquidity problem in the treasury markets? lisa: she did such great reporting. betty: you are both bond experts here. [laughter] lisa: i would say -- why would affectew representations treasuries? the lack of liquidity in the markets has been attributed to banks pulling back balance sheets and not giving as much to riskier assets. treasuries are not risky, so why would they even be caught up in this? banks used to have big portfolios to offset risks in other parts of their portfolio as their overall balance sheet shrinks. then there's less of a reason to own those treasuries. that's one reason. it's also less profitable. why would you do it? if you only have a certain amount of balance sheet to use you would deploy it where you could make money, whereas with
treasuries it's just not looking as good. betty: is this all part of the financial market turmoil that we've seen? or is something else at play? i think it's being exacerbated by the turmoil but it is showing the underpinnings of the problems in the market. there used to be all of this money that could produce the differences between the newly issued treasuries and the ones that had been issued months or even years ago. the difference there is really what is widening out, making it tougher for banks to make the market. first of all, there have been years and years of financial stimulus that have pushed people into the same direction, the same assets, pushing down yields and causing a massive rally. if people own and have been hoarding these treasuries, including the federal reserve , they are not going to be moving around that much. it creates less kind of
activity, right? that's a big piece of it, right? and then you also have an increase in the electronic trading of these treasuries, which does take away from dealers in a very real way. betty: clearly, the market structure is changing. of monetarying policy has not helped to clarify the situation, i guess you would say. so, what is the treasury department doing or saying about this? they are asking about it now, which is good, it means they are paying attention. now they are asking market participants what they should do about it. and what the potential consequences are. lisa: if you have this incredible rush in the volatility of treasuries, what does that actually do? will it cause a massive fisher in world markets? betty: is there any conclusion? alexandra: none.
the funny thing is, the even want to know -- what is liquidity? it's not like there will be no one out there to buy it. is that these traditional price relationships that everyone is used to, they are not there anymore, so it it makes it harder to do this stuff to maintain the underpinning of the market. betty: in the meantime they have sent out the questionnaires, for are asking bond markets their own expertise and feedback, but they are not doing anything at this point? do they have that ability? alexandra: you would be surprised. it seems that just asking about it is a really big step. they haven't asked about the market in this amount of detail since 1998. they've done a lot of research recently because of that big move. but they haven't actually taken the step of printing out a broad market call for information.
right now i'm joined by jim at mk mfor this holdings. always great to talk with you. right now stocks are at session lows. what are your thoughts on the macro level of what's happening today? in a high volatility market. i feel like i say that every week, but if you look at the backdrop, the fix was above 32 intraday, now it's back down a 23, recently closing above 27. as long as the floor under equity volatility is elevated and we see the potential for it continue lower in the near term, that should help stocks. doesn't look like it's happening over the last hour or so. alexandra: not -- ramy: the note
about the tale of two cities, go into that little bit more. i know that volatility is inherent in the ups and downs, but what is your take away? jim: we are limited in how back we can look at how far back we can look at volatility. 1997, when the shift in implied volatility happened, we had almost a full three years before stocks peaked in 2000. 2007, it was july when that happened, giving us about three months of a heads up before the financial crisis hit and we were deep into a bear market. we are certainly on the clock but the question that we posed -- and we don't have the answer -- is that clock more like 2007? in which case we could certainly be staring into a bear market right now. or do we have more time for this to play out? albeit against the backdrop of elevated volatility. ramy: looking at what you are
focusing on, the select spider, what is so attractive about this to you? a lot of clients are calling up saying -- we are expecting a bounce. even if you are bearish. second-worst performing sector year to date? the only worst performer was materials. number two, we had a fed meeting . there's another one later this week. in december it was twice what it is today. it was very bullish. it appeared that in financials the setup in 2016 was very bullish. if you look at the fed funds futures in december, it's pricing just about one rate hike each year. there has been a significant unwind of the bullish trade. we put those pieces together and we certainly want to be on the
contrary side. for a bit of a bounce, looking out and playing the long side. the: of course, that's december 27 policy rate hike, potentially. it's very simple. we want to go out to march, pay down about $.37 for that. it pays down a couple of things. contained risk. you give up a little bit in terms of implied volatility. it will take that to play alongside in the financials. more "bloomberg markets" coming up. please do not go away. ♪
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headlines this afternoon. mark crumpton has more from our news desk. mark: a homemade bomb that failed to detonate during the san bernardino terror attack was reportedly poorly constructed -- poorly constructed. also reported that the failure forced the husband and wife to drive around after the shootings that killed 14 people, they were apparently trying to set off the remote-controlled mom. investigators say the couple planned to use the device to kill first responders. the supreme court upheld a four-year-old federal program that pays large electric customers to save energy during demand. peak the justices ruled six to two that the federal energy regulatory commission have the authority to issue directives aimed at conserving energy and preventing blackouts. mantra falls may soon go dry on the american side. new york officials want to falls.ter the
it would be redirected to the canadian side during the repairs. officials will present their proposals to the public later this week. john kerry says that the u.s. might send more money to help clear minefields in laos. he's visiting the communist country today. until recently 300 people were killed there every year by unexploded vietnam war era bombs . secretary kerry, a decorated vietnam veteran, is only the third u.s. secretary of state to visit. the pakistani university where islamic extremists killed people last week recently reopened amid tight security today before closing again. that thean says university will be shut down indefinitely for repairs and to give students and faculty more time to recover from the incident. militants from a breakaway taliban group stormed the school last wednesday, setting up an allard -- hours long gunbattle with security forces. global news 24 hours per day,
i'm mark crumpton. got less than 30 minutes away from the close of trade. we are making new lows here. out of the nasdaq with more on where stocks go. abigail? abigail: stocks are at the lows. turns out there was a noticeable lack of intraday volatility up and down in a relatively tight range, weighing in the most in a by technology and apple. back below $100 ahead of the big day, the big day being the holiday earnings season, highly anticipated, where we all will get to see if analysts were correct to quote -- to cut march quarter negative revenue growth on the possibility of week iphone demand. the consensus seems to be that this is priced in and consensus like that is always a surprise as volatility could be ahead.
amazon, shares were nicely higher, but they have given back some of those gains along with bullish comments saying that amazon is likely to report a very strong fourth-quarter tomorrow after the bell. michael patrick does concede that they may give a fiscal first-quarter outlook that's weaker than expected, with the stock down more than 10% year to date. it will be interesting to see exactly what they say tomorrow after the bell. thank you so much, abigail. another merger taking another well-known company to ireland to lower its tax bill. johnson controls is combining the tyco and a multimillion deal. with more and what this means for both of the companies and what it means politically, let's , who in joel living can covers credit research in the auto and industrials. joel, first off, why does this
make sense? [sneezes] joel: bless you. from a strategic standpoint, whether they cover protection or monitoring, they can add that to their portfolio. from the financial standpoint, there is anemic growth in the industrial. maybe it's 1% or 2%. m&a remains red-hot in the capital good space. mainly because you can take out cost savings and build growth over the next couple of years. those couple of items combined with tax savings are the three main drivers. how much in savings is this expected to generate from both of these companies? $150 million annually of tax savings are expected from the announcement.
certainly it is a good amount of money for them? joel: without it out. it is an important stock merger. betty: what does this do for -- wasn't -- wasn't johnson in the middle of selling off one of the units in their company? joel: that's right. they've and going through an extreme makeover for the last couple of years. recently they've been talking about selling off their auto supplier unit. that's still on track? joel: they plan to take a $3 billion dividend out of the business so that they can pursue other initiatives or use it for other acquisition activities. under usual circumstances this would pass as just another industrial merger, but we know that this inversion part of the deal has the political candidates riled up. so, bernie sanders put out a
aatement calling this merger disaster for americans. he said that if you want the advantage of being an american company, you can't run away from .merica to avoid paying taxes or in this case, paying less in taxes. is any of that going to derail this? i can tell you that historically it hasn't derailed these types of transactions from happening. shoretel policy being changed i do think that this is going to derail the transaction. betty: thank you so much on the tight -- for that on the tyco johnson control. volatility, putting a huge damper on the ipo markets. so far there have been -- count them -- zero ipo's. how long is that going to take for the markets to recover? plus the revolving door at twitter keeps spinning as the stock keeps the falling.
dow. time for the bloomberg business flash. a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. ford, pulling out of japan and indonesia. saying that market conditions are making it difficult to grow sales and stay profitable. neither is large. last year they sold only 60,000 cars and trucks. only 5000 in japan, where they accused the government of protecting their own domestic carmakers. a judge is approving the plan of american apparel to exit bankruptcy. they can compel it to the senior lenders, and limit -- eliminating doug charney's last shot at taking back control of the clothing chain that he started when he was in college. started many ipo's have so hard in 2016? zero. january is on track to be the
slowest since the 2000 a recession. here's the case. to be the market turmoil, right? >> right? volatility is one of the factors here. the comparables are swinging all over the place. as we have been talking about, the vicks is still at that uncomfortable level of 20, touching 27 at times. it seems like the companies who are aiming for public offering are saying -- look, the deals that were done at the end of 2015 were not that great. thetility is still all over place. equity investors are still in this risk off atmosphere, maybe not wanting to bet on a new stock. that's played into it. again, we have this private funding market in tech and biotech where it companies need capital, they can usually get it. they can tap that privately.
betty: what's it usually like during this time? alex: last year there were 19 ipo's in january. right now there's only three, smaller, less than $100 million operating size country's -- companies expected to post this year and we've already had one postponed. you can see that we have a dearth here. ofally we do have a number biotech companies and we are just not seeing them. one of them is on the road right now. pricing, theyack are deciding to roadshow. but not many people are moving to go public in january. any sense of who might be able to get it done this year? sectors,specific
within enterprise technology that seems to be where the -- where thee companies have revenue. still care is also looking to be -- when i talked to my sources in here about the backlog, that will be another area that is exciting. a place that might struggle a little bit other private equity backed companies. what are the -- with all the turmoil equity investors have not loved stocks with lower credit ratings. a lot of these sponsor backed companies have a lot of debt. were very leveraged. we saw some of those ipo's get canceled late last year. there might be a challenge for the likes of bluecoat. betty: alex, thank you so much. --king to us about the draft the drought in ipo's right now. one company that has been having a tough time with its own ipo is twitter.
shares have fallen 30% since its ipo a little over two years ago. they are continuing to decline where not one, but for top executives are leaving the company, including the head of products. the exodus comes as they work to turn around their ailing business. emily chang joins us now from san francisco with more perspective. so, we know that twitter has been struggling for quite some time. how surprising was it to see these senior-level departures? people whoe were all had been at twitter for more than five years. they have put in a really long stint at this company. jack dorsey confirmed in a tweet last night that all four of these people are leaving the company, taking some time off. it was not clear whether they were asked to leave or are leaving of their own volition. cady stanton did put out an
emotional post where she said she just wants to spend more time with her children. as far as we understand it, at least one of these people was asked to leave, but look, it just goes back to that revolving door on twitter, not the least lastich was dick costolo year. it could be seen as jack dorsey trying to shore up his top executive ranks. of course as we know there have been perennial problems with the product rather just isn't the mainstream around the product that it needs to be to succeed in today's world. donald trump is on their tweeting away, but he still can't get people to use it. he wants it to be as easy as looking out your window and it still very difficult. betty: there is a utility to it, but it's not engaging in a people, as you say. john kline was on earlier, the former president of cnn, now he has his own media venture.
he thinks this is the right thing to do. >> this is a visual time. millennial's don't care nearly as much about words as they do about images. they will feast on images, they , etc., upload their own but that puts twitter at a huge disadvantage. to his credit, jack dorsey has taken the bull by the horns and said that we have to reset the whole product. only the founder and original visionary can do that. although the markets are punishing him today, in the long run i think it's the smartest ring that he can do. betty: do others share that opinion -- opinion? emily: he's been doing this for six months. we should give him some time. he shown a willingness to make hard and difficult choices. i think that what john stein was saying was the same reason that instagram is taking off and has more users than twitter at this point. people want a visual medium and
twitter has just not been able to harness that. of course, they have been experimenting with tweaking the product, the timeline. his lengthy tweet last night was actually a screenshot of text. there is discussion of increasing the character limit to no limit at all. they are also bringing in a new cmo. we don't know who it is, but we are told that they are brand name and will be shaking up the board. they are going to be adding two new board members but we are told one of them is a big media personality. over time their board has been criticized for being too dominated by insiders. you can see that he's willing to make difficult choices. the stock is down 55%. more than that in just the last year. they have a lot of work to do. what is he going to do about replacing his head of product?
that seems like a key position. emily: some say they don't need factoack dorsey is the de head of product. he's very involved. you can imagine that for anyone in that role, they have to get along with them very well or be ok with not being the decider. we know that the coo is taking on new responsibilities. he will be taking on more of the media responsibilities. the cpl is going to be taking on more of the engineering responsibilities. so, we don't know how he is going to fill out these positions if they are indeed open positions. but it is a big swath of departures in one go. indeed, like ripping off the band-aid in one shot. be sure to put -- tune in for the latest twitter shakeup. ahead, the close is
moments away. the stock -- the dow is now down to hundred points. it is also a big day tomorrow for aig, the insurance giant. they will be holding their big .nvestor presentation carl icahn has called for the breakup of the company. tomorrow we will be speaking with hank greenberg to get his opinion on peter hancock's presentation. don't miss both of those interviews, tomorrow on "bloomberg markets." ♪
points. we are now down 194 points. taking a look at the percentage of the fall, the dow is down 1.2, the nasdaq is down 1.5%. just like the s&p. sincewn at their lowest this past wednesday. we did see that today rally. president mario draghi puzzle word about potential stimulus came out of march. the fall that we're seeing today and especially in the past half hour or so has to do so much with oil. taking a look at crude right now, you can see similarly with that plunge we are seeing something happening just in the last 15 to 20 minutes or so. we are down by more than 7.2%. this is our session low. i wanted to point out that earlier today we saw an earlier plunge around wall street time, when saudi arabia said that they weren't going to care what the world thought and they were going to keep rooting capital
expenditures into energy products. we are now on track to snap our best today rally for oil since 2008. this is of course having a knock on effect in terms of the oil majors. taking a look at what's happening here, down double .igits, through 10% looking at the 10 sectors in terms of how energy is the biggest laggard right now, down on the order of 3%. not only that, financials are not having a great day. the third biggest laggard on the s&p in terms of sector health. goldman sachs, citigroup, some of the biggest losers right now. a couple of individual stocks i want to talk to you about. one of them being twitter. twitter is down 4.4%. earlier betty was talking with emily chang in california about how there are three analyst
downgrades because of for executives who have left the company. all downgrading and keeping a high risk rating on the stock. apple stock also falling head of the first quarter earnings. amazon, coming out with something from steeple saying that they should beat expectations on revenue for amazon, driven by healthy e-commerce trends and keeping a healthy price target. thank you so much. staying with the markets, many are saying that recession is all but of -- all but inevitable, but the possibility in the next 12 months is really only a 19% according to a recent bloomberg survey. as to whether this year had some backing behind it, i want to bring in and louise jackson. so, what are the markets really telling us?
anna: right now the conclusion is somewhat inconclusive. in the past we have seen corrections. a third of the time it has been accompanied by a recession in the left -- last 12 months. 2% 60 daysare below last year and most of 2012 with no recession. signhen the more troubling -- if we were to enter a bear market, in the past when we have entered a bear market 10 out of 14 times the economy has been towards a recession. obviously haven't entered a bear market, but how far are we from it? >> bear market is defined at 20%. is there a debate here as to whether stock markets are leading us into the idea of a recession? or are we just lagging here?
>> there are people in both camps on that argument. but here, you know, there's really just not a conclusive answer at this point. there are things that people .2 on each side to say -- ok, it looks like a recession is imminent. the fact that we have rebounded a bit since last week is helpful. thank you so much. that is it for "bloomberg markets." we are closing it looks like right near the low of the session so far. ♪
scarlett: u.s. stocks halted a two-day rally. you can blame the crude selloff. >> the question is what you missed. has the u.s. bull market finally run its course? price wins in the u.s. bond market. his liquidity prices to blame? francine: and wide-out is shorting -- alix: and why dow is shorting the apple stock. the bottom fell out in the final hour of trading as oil extended losses, another big, massive drop . >> at one point, earlier in the day, markets had rallied. we thought we would be looking at some strength, but it was in the last hour that the wheels came off.