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tv   Trending Business  Bloomberg  January 25, 2016 9:00pm-10:01pm EST

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brokers are saying it is not time to be adding risk. crude is back below $30 a barrel. u.s. stockpiles expanded again. saudi arabia is saying low prices will not affect their spending plans. gold heads for a three month high. with you think about our top stories. howus take a look at just steep or deep these declines are across the asia-pacific. yvonne: continues to get deeper. coming online carried down .5%. , one of the stocks big losers of the day now one play 4%. the nikkei is still the big one today, down 2% snapping 22 --
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snapping two days of gains. the philippines are down 2.5%. a flight to safety again snapping the global rally we saw. we see here in terms of the treasuries, we are in the asia-pacific, piling into bonds. price in a still get has fallen about three basis points to 2.1%. close to the record low that we saw two weeks ago after bond yields fell for a second day. u.s. treasuries are now one play 4%. of a drop quite a bit in yields on monday as well. it is going to be the safe haven places driving markets today including the yen, rising for a second day to 118.10. as we head into the boj meeting,
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there are some calls by para ball -- paribas saying we should go along on yen-dollar this week. to a recordboj as stimulus on friday, the impact may be very limited compared to we first and second bazooka saw back then. the recent declines in japanese stocks. we have also seen a reversal of due toker yen all external factors. monetary easing may not help, fiscal spending is the only option. we have also seen recently that the dollar-yen as the global stocks, the correlation has strengthened near a record of .71. when the dollar falls against the yen, the global stocks are seeing a fault. we have seen global stocks fall
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a percent. fallen thisalso year as well. snapped threelso days of losses. we are continuing to see that gold,aven play out and in what a trip we have seen with the bullion rising .2 of 1%. we broke the 1100 mark. 1109.94. has been up four of the last five days. global equities, the asia-pacific benchmark falling 10%. -- due toil resuming saudi arabia saying it would not cut energy spending.
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this has sent the price of oil down as has the possibility of the stockpile 80 showing a growth in the u.s. inventories. there is a couple of different factors at play. yesterday, prices tumbled. 5.8% and brentut fell about 5.2%. they are both trading at about $30 of there'll today. saudi aramco, the state owned oil company said they would not reduce spending for oil and natural gas projects. strategyerated this they have been pursuing for the last year or so which is to flood the market in this low price environment and drive drive high cost producers like u.s. shale producers out of the market. another impact from this strategy is they hope to stimulate demand.
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if oil is trading at $30 a barrel, maybe more people would use it. what they hope to do by investing and maintaining investment is increased market share. we are seeing some aggressive strategies from the world's biggest exporter of oil. another factor they spoke about yesterday is saudi aramco is considering an ipo which would likely be for some downstream assets like refineries or pipelines. barclays said this would not only give saudi aramco access to more money and capital markets but they might take capital investment from markets that would go to other oil investments like iran or u.s. shale producers. it is a two-pronged strategy where they get money from an ipo, and hurt regional and global rivals. very aggressive strategies from saudi arabia in this low price environment. thanks so much.
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turning to look at some of the corporate news out there and having a look at whether it is a turnaround that the world they just publicly listed restaurant chain. who doesn't love and a commitment and. ofcould help mcdonald's out its worst slump in a decade. the fast food giant's decision to serve all they breakfast in the u.s. helped it to its best quarterly growth in almost four years. it surged 5% beating analysts estimates of 3.2%. the ceod optimism that can get mcdonald's back on track. monthbrook took over last and introduced the all breakfast to north america in october. it also saw strong results in australia, china, and the u.k. last order. france was a weak spot for starbucks. mcdonald's do quite
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well over the last 12 months. ford has announced it is pulling out of japan and indonesia due to lack of profit. the company says all operations in those countries will be shut down at the end of this year but it will continue to offer customer support. tois not the first automaker react to slow sales in indonesia. general motors also closed its factory in southeast asia's largest car market. 6100 vehicles in 2015. and only 5000 in japan. over 1% in newl york trade following the announcement. down about 20% in the last 12 months. k best -- sks
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hynix, it misses estimates by 5%. it has been struggling with following tube prices amid the slowdown in china and waning demand for smart phones and pcs. shares have been down quite significantly and under a lot of pressure so far in 2016 falling around 6%. deja vu. is it? could it be 2008 for chinese stocks. the shanghai composite has the same cycle. what are the charts telling us out this? chorus of experts saying get out of chinese stocks. bank of america and merrill
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lynch say the composite could fall about 30% this year, it is already down 17% coming year to date. this as the bank forecasts china's gdp growth to slow to 6.6%. and the yuan to fall 6.9% to the u.s. dollar. says there iser more pain ahead for chinese stocks for least a next quarter or two and the hedge fund manager whose year-long stock , hex futures fund return says he is not optimistic about 2016. his advice is to hold cash, weight, and watch. the shanghai benchmark index will likely bottom out at 2500 which is another 15% to go from yesterday's close. the indexist said
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will then likely trade sideways for years until real reforms in china are in place. chinese stocks are fundamentally overpriced in many areas. charts comparing this cycle versus that of the 2007-2008 boom and bust are strikingly similar as you can see here. the orange is back in the days of the global financial crisis and here is this year and this cycle. strikingly similar trends at the chinese slowdown, week yuan and record outflows are serving this time as the downward pressure on stocks. outwards increase in december. that is the second-highest monthly total for last year and now, estimated, if you add them all up, topping $1 trillion in 2015, more than seven times the total for 2014. rishaad: the announced prime
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minister has lost his bid to the communist party's top job. take a look at what is ahead for hanoi. the fed and the bank of japan will examine the implications on currency. ♪
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juliette: these are the stories making headlines. freezing much of the east asia has eased slightly allowing one of korea's busiest airports to reopen. it was closed for 45 hours. elsewhere, the bitter conditions are being blamed for 85 deaths in taiwan while hong kong saw a record lows. china issued its second highest weather alert as they saw snow
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for the first time in 70 years. 38 people are known to a dyed in the snowstorm that blanketed much of the east during -- eastern united states. a mother and her baby son died of carbon monoxide poisoning when sitting in a car with a block tailpipe. hundreds of flights were canceled. airports expect to resume normal operations soon. toldovernment of laos has john kerry it will stand with other regional nations against beijing's assertiveness in the south china sea. several members are increasingly worried about china's territorial claims. however others including cambodia are more pro-beijing. powered by over 2400 journalists news studios in the
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world. rishaad: ahead of the bank of japan policy how well, some officials seeing the possibility of more monetary stimulus. guess they are going to say it is data dependent. hans: -- haidi: the data they are watching out for is inflation. it is always falling energy prices -- arguably, the outlook has worsened. growth is not going anywhere either. they have already pushed out that 2% inflation target twice and last week, they may have to push it out again. kuroda -- wenor also know that he is more than
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capable of a surprise. like in 2014 when he expanded. risk to growth to be too skewed he will bring other board members around to expand stimulus. goldman is saying we will likely see expanding qe in april. rishaad: what is the point of this? the law of diminishing returns. the yen down.es it results in stock market returns. that all of these things are going to result in diminishing returns. it will not have the impact of the first and the second. the factors are driving up the yen in creating losses when it comes to japanese equities are global. they are not domestic.
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goesif governor kuroda ahead, it will have minimal impact. rishaad: it is global. problems theyphic are fighting. rishaad: they have a litany of issues. the yen as you about we are talking about japan. what we have had our a lot of investors flocking out of risk ask it -- risk assets and going into haven commodities. this andou make of what do you make of the bank of japan if they do expand the stimulus program? what is the point of it ultimately? firstly, to early for the bank of japan to blink. the bank of japan is in a wait and see mode given the data so far on the growth front for
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japan looks pretty solid. therefore, it is too early for them to contemplate further easing. having said that, i think we need to see what is happening to the dollar-yen. if it goes below 115, it heightens the possibility of using. -- of easing. rishaad: we talked about there buck inss hang for the terms of diminishing returns. if we do get an expansion of the stimulus program, will that translate into more yen weakness? i think it depends on the details. qe, thato expand the would translate into further yen weakness. we are now in a world of diminishing returns to qe.
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rishaad: let's talk about -- we have seen the yen of late around 116 level. indoes seem that this move terms of the yen, in terms of the g4 currencies, have shown that we are effectively within a tight range right now. what will it take for us to break out of that? the catalyst could be the stabilization. what we are seeing right now in the fx market has been it is reflecting risk of fears of global recession. this is reflected in the performance of the currencies like the yen and the underperformance of the commodity currencies and the selloff of sterling itself. policy have a role to play.
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ghi came out last week to highlight the possibility of stainless -- stimulus. policymakers are paying buried close attention to the financial markets and would be vigilant against further deterioration in the financial conditions. rishaad: are you still keeping to your target of a euro at 102 in about six months from now? >> yes. --re is still a possibility i think the risk to the euro is still in tact given what draghi said last week. it is being driven by the risk of sentiment. get that is stabilized, we a more stable risk environment.
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there is room for the euro to drop to the 102 target that we have. it is now in no man's land. rishaad: ok, thank you. more with our guest right after this. this is "trending business". ♪
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rishaad: with "trending business" as we continue our conversation. we were talking about the majors. let us talk about the rmb. come if itething , if we seehis move it continue to weaken does it follow that emerging-market currencies will follow in its
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footsteps? in the absence of a currency war as well. whole, the renminbi is likely to weaken in the medium-term which will be a drag on the yen currencies very -- currencies. of it, depending on how it is being managed. what we have seen is that the chinese authorities have come to intervene and put on more restrictive measures to send the market that we are not in a currency war and we are now -- not going to devalue the renminbi. that has brought stability for the rest of the yen current cease. over the medium-term, we do see yen currencies weakening in line with the weaker renminbi. rishaad: we have that happening. what about the r&b itself?
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there is the possibility that we see a much weaker renminbi by year-end. 6.8. we would roll out seven. the name of the game is to -- is to control the pace of weakness to send the message that this is not a destabilizing situation from the chinese currency. rishaad: let us tk to the mother of all currencies and the u.s. dollar. and you see that resuming its bullish path if at all? , we need a more stable drop off for the dollar to resume a bullish path. since the beginning of the year, we have seen the dollar weakening somewhat against the
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funding current cease. happening from china itself which has been direct. ,gainst the funding currencies we will need to see stabilization of risk. for now there is no catalyst for dollar strength. thank you very much. having a look at what is going on in the currency markets. from the fxt back markets and look at asia-pacific in terms of equities very the all-important lunch break for the nikkei 225. he declined of 2% there. shanghai composite weaker and , aeed hang seng also fallback taking place. a short-lived global rally peter
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out. a public holiday in ulster really a today. kospi upp by 1.4% -- ford is running out of gas in japan and is closing up shop there. a fallout from tokyo. we will do that when "trending business" returns after this very short break. ♪
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rishaad: our top stories, a reversal of the two-day rebound. oil back below 30 a barrel. losses across this part of the world led by hong kong and turkey. the korean g.d.p. growth fell off from a five-year high. the correlation between shares in oil prices now at its highest since 2013. a close call for this week's policy meeting on whether to expand the record stimulus.
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the drop in oil prices and sluggish wage rises have dimmed the inflation outlook. the governor discussed the impact of the recent turmoil on japan's economy. now the moves have been up all day in the u.s. they helped pull mcdonald's out of the worst slump in more than a decade, all day breakfast helping global sales in the last quarter. that beat estimates and produced the best quarterly growth in mcdonald's in nearly four years. the company also seeing strong results in australia, china, and the united kingdom. right. well, closing out for now in tokyo. here's a look at that and the rest of the market action. >> maybe a break and egg mcmuffin, looking at asia pacific right now. still red across the board. down 1.8% as they head into the lunch break. the shanghai composite now down 1.5%.
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the hang seng continuing to see losses of 2%. this as we see of course oil back down on a slide. and this is how we expect the u.s. crude stockpiles, that forecast is to see expansion once again for a third week. saudi arabia not making things easier in the oil prices. they won't reduce spending on energy. as we continue to see this oil price fall, 5.2%, yesterday now 1.5% to 5% to 35 -- 35.04. as we see the overall effects of oil, the movers in the asia pacific, china particularly, the oil producers all falling this morning. down 7.4%. those are the shares in hong kong. falling 1%. airlines are rising in asia pacific in reverse to what's going on in oil.
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china pacific up a third of a percent. china eastern and sing air gains of about .75%. this is rat -- the rally the last couple days. some saying this is really short covering and now is not a time to be piling on into risk. as we head into the japan lunch break right now here is how things stand. this is a stock that is a real estate company selling condos in tokyo among other prefectures down 7.7% after they said that they cut their profit forecast by 45%, offerings for the nine months fell some 70%. sales also down. a very hot profit market in parts of japan especially in tokyo where average sale prices have surged to 24-year highs. so it really is knock go-to wind out of the property market right now and making it very tough for ordinary buyers in japan. toshiba falling 4.3%.
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we see at a 35, 36-year low on the shares right now after the company said they're studying a write down or to take a write down for its westinghouse business. earnings also coming out next week. we have to take a look at that as well as they're saying impairment tests right now. no results just yet. one of the big gainers on the nikkei, sumitomo, coming out looking pretty positive, up 11% according to the nikkei. shares up 4% in tokyo. rish? rishaad: indications that things are a little bit brighter than when it comes to the wider economy, at least some would have us believe that. some of the early indicators, stablization, well let's bring in our china economic expert. malcolm, we have another sign the chinese economy may be holding up better than some other bits of data would have us believe. >> certainly what the markets would have us believe. the data again shows the steady
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grind lower to generate early indicators and unofficial guide has come ahead of the first official ratings expected on february 1 but they did show continuation of this theme, strength in services which is what we saw last year and that helps consumption. more weakness in manufacturing from the min shin p.m.i.'s. they'd gone missing for months but they're back. we've got a slight deterioration in a reading of business sentiment. rishaad: all right. the thing is, you know, we've got these smaller gauges, haven't we, these smaller surveys which have been proving to be a bit more positive, haven't they? >> overall attended to, the minxin showing a lot more volatility than the government official p.m.i. rating suggested and have given a fairly clear direction of what's happening. on the worrying front there there was some weakness creeping into services. that seems to be going back in the right direction still below
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50 but heading back toward that level so that is a good sign. but over all, these have given a fairly good gauge of what the officials are showing later in the month, what the next month has shown. rishaad: talk to me about capital flights. something like a trillion dollars worth of it. now the thing is what are the risks here? >> the risk is what it does to policy options. there can be no big marked reduction in monetary policy, in benchmark interest rates, even maybe in triples it seems from the latest thinking because that risks worsening the capital flight. in an economy with entrenched deflation, it may not get the benchmark interest rates many economists say they need because a triple r cut might signal further weakness and easing coming down the pike and benchmark interest rate cut in an environment where the fed is raising rates could really exacerbate capital flights as you say a trillion dollars last year. >> thank you so much.
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now, the former head of the uk financial services authority and of the confederation of british industries has said china could have a major depressive effect across asia. >> i think what's happening in china is a predictable and predicted, really very deep slow down of the manufacturing and the construction and the property development sector, which was bound to come about as we got to the end of this huge credit and investment boom. there are huge vulnerabilities left. we're seeing quite extraordinary growth in credit as essentially creditors extended to loss making heavy industry. so what i think is going on now is a slowdown in manufacturing and industry which is bound to have a major deflationary effect on the rest of the world. that's what the markets have woken up to in the last few weeks. combined with some other signs, he mean, we saw this for
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instance in the labor market data, the job creation data, that some of the shift to the service economy, which we've talked about for many years, is occurring. but i think the crucial thing to say is even if that means one should not be too pessimistic about the medium term pattern of the chinese economy i think it will continue to grow at a good rate. the impact on the rest of the world of the slowdown in manufacturing is very deep and i think we'll continue to see that having a big impact into the next several months. >> all right. i want to get to the macro economy in a second. let's talk a little bit about what you said here. you know, these markets and how they have reacted, how much, you know, putting your hat on as being former chair of the f.s.a., how much of this has done to poor -- due to poor regulation or no regulation and scatter gun regulation? >> well, i think the global markets if we're talking global equity markets has very little
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do with leg -- with regulations. rishaad: i mean in china. >> if we're talk go china i think what clearly happens in last year was a set of inconsistent policies, which were quite harmful to the credibility of the chinese authorities. because what happened in the first quarter of the year was a deliberate attempt to drive up the value of the equity market in the mistaken belief that that could help offset the impact on the economy of potential weakness in the property sector. and that really was a mistaken idea. it should not be the job of a government, certainly one which is talking about a decisive role for the market of manipulating the market up with some sort of exercise of policy. what then happened was having stimulated it up deliberately, it began to come down and then there were a set of panic m, to try and stop it coming down.
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i think the chinese authorities will have learned from this that they need to be very cautious of treating the equity market as something that you try to, you know, control in that fashion. and as i say, i think whereas a year ago it used to be a very strong belief that whatever else was going on in china we knew it was very competent, organized, set of technical decision makers. i think some of the confusion that was observed in the equity market approach last year had a credibility effect which was harmful. >> let's look at some of the other stories we're following for you. twitter, while having a rough time of it, the concern about the exits of four top executives and how that could play out as the company tries to revive its business. the company's heads of product, engineering, and media are all leaving along with its human resources vice president. the exit is coming as twitter
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gets set to name two new board members this week. shares have lost more than half their value the past 12 months as twitter struggles to boost user growth. now, another company which had a rough time of it and is having a rough time this down. is 3.7% is this due to sprint because its shares also took a beating in the u.s. investors not impressed with the news the carrier is cutting 2500 jobs saying it would cut costs by $2.5 billion trying to boost subscriber numbers and cut costs. part of the chief executive's turn-around plan. the company has been given three months to provide a full account of the emissions scandal. there are legitimate concerns and they say it is in v.w.'s best interests to give a full explanation. they seemed to play down the scandal on a recent trip to the
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u.s. and it remains how and when millions of affected cars will be fixed. >> well, let's take a look at what else is going on in the automotive space. ford for one thing is going to shut down all its operations in japan and indonesia by year's end saying quite simply it's run out of options for boosting ales and making money. the decision comes after years of struggling to compete. >> japan is very mature. you know, has been in sort of a structural decline over the last two decades so that one, you know, makes a lot of sense why ford cannot make money in this market. japanese car makers are really dominant and foreign brands have a really hard time competing there. indonesia is a little bit of a different story where it is, you know, the biggest economy in southeast asia, the biggest car market in southeast asia but you do see maybe some prospects for growth in that
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market going forth. the problem is the japanese car makers are just so dominant it is really tougher for ford to compete and make any money. so you're seeing ford actually follow g.m. out of that market. g.m. is still doing some sales in that market but they close down the plant there last year. >> was this a surprise at the end of the day, craig? >> yeah. i think given that explanation you know maybe the indonesia pull out is a bit of a surprise. japan is definitely no shocker. you do see ford doing five or 6,000 sales a year in that market. just to put that in some perspective, the company did probably that much volume of the f series pickup in the u.s. every two or three days last month. that's the amount of sales that it does with that model. so it really is not a surprise to see ford pull out of these markets given that it's roughly the volume they're doing in each of those markets on a
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early basis. >> the chinese president is pledging a long-term support for iran. what does that say about his plans for the overall middle east? more on that when we return. ♪
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>> stories making headlines around the world president putin criticized the soviet hero lenin denouncing him for brutal suppression in the 1920's. lenin is still revered by communists and others in russia. putin has weighed his comments carefully in the past. this time he said the czar had been blamed for attacking his own people but lenin did the same or worse. the world health organization is warning a mosquito borne virus is likely to spread
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through the americas except for canada and chile. an outbreak in brazil has been linked to thousands of birth defects after pregnant women became infected. authorities have promised to step up mosquito eradication in rio ahead of the olympics in august. the virus emerged in africa in the 1940's and spread to asia and confirmed in the americas only last may. new york state is considering turning the tap off at niagara falls. plans to replace two pedestrian bridges could mean building a temporary dam to redirect water from one section of the falls to another. it has been done before in a 1969 study of erosion. officials say it could initially be a tourism draw but critics say the falls without water would literally be a turn off and the project could cost about $24 million and is still several years away. powered by the 2400 journalists in over 115 news bureaus around the world, bloomberg news. rishaad: the chinese president
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covered a lot of ground on his recent trip to the middle east. he announced $55 million in aid ks addressed the arab league, and met leaders of rfpblg regional rivals saudi arabia and iran. well, start off here, it comes at a rather crucial time this visit especially when saudi arabia and iran are seemingly at logger heads. >> right. he came in right into the middle of this very serious feud right now. he's come in also at a crucial time for iran in that they're seeing nuclear sanctions listed after several years. the u.s. and the eu have decided to remove that pressure on their economy and he's trying to make sure china is the first in the door trying to lock in the gains that china has made in trade over the last few years under the sakes -- sanctions. >> let's take a look at xi's visit just to tehran to begin
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with. it is quite symbolic. he was the first well i guess the leader of stature around the world from a major economy to be visiting after the sanctions have been lifted. >> right. so what xi seems to really be trage to do is let iran know that this relationship that we've built over the last few years, this economic relationship, that we see it as having a lot of potential and future and we want to lock in those gains before all those other rivals coming in from europe and maybe potentially the u.s. as well. >> absolutely. were there any attempts at trying to perhaps intercede or mediate between iran and tehran in all this? what about the visit to egypt among it all? >> the visit to egypt which came between the two is a nice buffer between the rival sides. it was interesting that he gave a speech to the arab league in which he vowed that he would
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not seek out proxies in the region and that he was trying to present china as a more hands off, playing a more hands off mediating role in these conflicts. whether he said anything directly about these conflicts he alluded to them, we don't know, but he did try to present china as a friend and ally to both in hopes he could maintain stability. the area is obviously a huge source of chinese oil. -- d how much >> he's really gone out and it's a theme really for 2015 and i think we'll see that continue in 2016. has been to present an image of china as a major world player. whether it is on the economic front but also increasingly the
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security front particularly in the realm -- he would like to present china as being an alternative to the global structure that was designed by the west. on able to revise that terms more favorable to some of the developing countries. >> thank you very much for that. okay. got to tell you about what we have coming up. vietnam's outgoing prime minister. what does it mean for the politicking there in their plit bureau? this is "trending business." ♪
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rishaad: investigative reports that there is a scheme to promote a low image of vehicles in china and media is reporting on selling poor quality vehicles. the shell company in order to
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claim those state subsidies and shares in new energy veebles surged threefold last year. the government says any fraud found will be severely punished. another company growing the -- joining the growing list is singapore based company saying it has expressed an interest in acquiring the label but warns there is no certainty after deal going through. are interested. r.j. missed estimates last quarter. came in at a two-year low about $130 million 5% below expectations. take a look. actually on the way up but a declining market today. it is struggling with falling prices amid the slow down in china as well as waning demand for smart phones and pc's. now vietnam is entering a new five-year period after a power struggle defeat for the prime
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minister. pro business west leaning prime minister has been forced to pull oust the race for the party's top job in favor of his conservative rival. why did he fail? >> well, lesson to be learned here, rish. don't make enemies. he failed because he made many enemies. that's what people are saying. as prime minister he was very aggressive and ambitious. he wasn't very popular within the party so now party members are rejecting him and his style of leadership. as you know, he is a reformist and pushed through reforms to open up the vietnamese economy. he pushed for privatization. he got closer to the u.s. but drifted away from china because of tensions in the south china sea. party members may have wanted the same things as him but it disagreed on how they should be achieved. now, he is close to the end of
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his maximum two terms as prime minister and was looking to be party chief to continue the reforms. with his withdrawal, though, rish, the incumbent is set to be retained as general secretary, one of the most influential roles in vietnam. rishaad: so what does it mean for reforms in vietnam and will the leadership reverse course on this? >> reforms are expected to continue. f you take a look at the five-year economic plan it points to providing the private sector with equal access to credit, to land, other resources as well. now, historically, it was the state owned enterprises that received preferential access. the same goes for its foreign policy as well. vietnam's next leaders are expected to stay the course
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despite tensions to china. what the new leadership has to decide now is how much and how fast to move away from china. after all, irrelevant, beijing has caused a lot of tension and in the south china sea. rishaad: thank you very much indeed for that. a bit more breaking news out of asia at the moment. this is out of malaysia saying he prime minister has returned some 2 million to a donor. he has been putting money into an account there. that works out to maybe $470 million u.s. attorney ook at the general saying they are not involved in corruption, no evidence of corruption in donation to the prime minister of malaysia. we'll have more on this from asia when we'll be recopping
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the big stories of the day so far. joining us today the head of market strategy at one of the leading online lendors. we discuss the economic outlook and beyond. that's next. ♪ ♪
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>> steven avery was wrongfully convicted of sexual assault in 198r5 and served 18 years in a wisconsin state prison system before he was exonerated in 2003. in 2005 shortly after filing a awsuit against the county that wrongly convicted him. avery became the prime suspect in the murder of teresa hall a new network's documentary chronicles his proseon

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