tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg January 26, 2016 12:00pm-2:01pm EST
alix: from bloomberg world headquarters, i am alix steel. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. alix: a horrendous start to the has not given federal reserve to raise interest rates. expectations are low that action will be taken, but what about the rest of the year? scarlet: we will look at what companies are prepared to do it oil prices go much higher. alix: also, houston has dragged on high energy costs, but the tide has turned. we would talk to the mayor about the challenges he faces. first, a look at today's market activity. we check in with ramey. we are recovering from yesterday's loss led by energy stocks and they are recovering. ramey: they are and it is basically a risk off the market right now. let's take a look.
their session highs right now but hovering around the, the s&p 500 up by 1%, the dow jones up i about 1.5% and the nasdaq up by about .8 of 1%. one of the biggest boosters was consumer confidence coming in at a three month high of 98.1 .3.sus estimated 96 the shanghai composite dropped about 6.4%. let's take a look with the s&p 500. we can see the reaction coming after what happened with consumer confidence. the 10:00e around a.m. hour and we can see over here, we are hovering at the session highs right now. coming off of that 1900 mark, which we were seen earlier today. the take a look at commodity, one of the biggest dictating factors for the
market, and we are at session highs, up by about 4%. we did go into positive territory around the 6:00 a.m. mark after saudi arabia and iraq that they could potentially cut back on oil supplies. interestingly with that, going to the bloomberg terminal and i want to trade this correlation between the s&p 500 and oil. basically, take a look at this blue dot. this shows that the correlation between the commodity and index is at its highest in the past year, coming in that 4.3. a shout out to hillary clock for making the chart and pointing -- hillary clark are making the chart. scarlet: also, where do we stand in january? amey: we don't stand very well in january. let me bring up the s&p 500 even now in the index. this is a heat map of what is going on over single month. i want to direct your attention to the red block.
for 2016, we are down by about 7%. the last time that happened on a larger scale was in 2009 and was down by 8.5%. back to this january, we are in our top three worst january's ever since the 1950's. alix: thank you. scarlet: let's check in with the first word news. mark crumpton has those. thank you. military authorities are a report ofo a gunshots at the naval medical center in san diego. the sounds were heard around 8:00 local time this morning and a building that houses officers. emergency personnel have been asked to stay away from the area. the numbers are being tallied, but initial estimates of the economic impact of the weekend blizzard are between 2.5 million -- 2.5 billion dollars and $3
billion, according to two analysts. the figure represents lost income for hourly workers and spending that was skipped. the death toll is at least at 25 after an attack today in syria. the government security checkpoint was targeted. islamic state this -- islamic state's say that talks talking aret ending the civil war scheduled for friday. officers in afghanistan were poisoned by an officer and then executed by taliban fighters. the taliban claimed responsibility. it is the latest inside attack involving a soldier or policeman. a new poll shows a donald trump dominating the field of republican candidates will field ofs -- republican presidential candidates. had 19% and the other candidates were all in single digits.
global news 24 hours a day from the bloomberg first word desk. i am mark crumpton. back to you. scarlet: thank you. billionaire hedge fund managers david einhorn are is making headlines for attacking oil tracking companies. he singled out pioneer has the mother cracker. -- as the mother fracking company. >> drilling the holes cost money, lots of money, so the frackers took the short to wall street, explaining how fracking is the new way to get rich in oil. the recent collapse in crude has left companies really scrambling for cash. ish oil prices at $30, it showing investors jumping in.
joining us now is someone on the right lines of the debate. the global head of oil and gas creditent thinking at squeeze. you help companies raise money on the public market. what is that like right now? >> good morning. we have been quite active in the capital markets. i think argue continues to be in growth positions companies that have good reservoir access and that they will continue to get access and capital. distinctionis a worse is the good and bad companies. we have a chart showing the guys who have done well, diamondback, new field versus the fracking index which has fallen off a cliff and that points out the haves and have-nots. what about the middle? alternativehere are
forms of capital beyond the stock offering to are talking about. we have been quite active on this. , again, if the leverage is reasonable and they have good resources and good managements, there will be other forms of capital available. scarlet: what are the best practices of the companies that have successfully adjusted their business model, outlook for this longer view on oil? i think good management, good operations, the properties, good reserves is the way to position yourself in any environment, particularly the more challenged ones like to reduce level we have today. scarlet: when you say could management, do you mean someone who has experience been a turnaround artist or someone with the company for years or decades? who know how to run the companies and in lots of different environments. .hey are usually quite seasoned
people who have lived through prior downturns know how to run companies properly and know how to focus on safety. alix: the rhetoric seems to be that cost inflation has helped some of these guys stay alive or they would if i go bankrupt a year ago. lowering those costs, increased recoveries, they are getting more oil at the beach well if they wind up drilling. how much more efficiencies do you see in this space that can help them survive longer? has beene shale boom founded by two things, one is technology and the second is entrepreneurship and now it's a third -- and i would say third is entrepreneurship. there are few -- there are a few technologies being applied. they do more and more of the wells and they continue to have
the best practices, cost and safety and efficiency. scarlet: how much attention to investors pay to this part of the equation? : i think they pay a lot. if you apply the right technology with all the resources, even in a low oil price environment, i think you can make great returns. alix: i noticed how short the market is. negative inwti, how short investors are, what is it like where you said? how much cash is on the sidelines and how to investors feel? osmar: investors are interested in quality opportunities. i think we have had many of investors who have been extremely active. and those have the next you did quite well. i think that shows that there are investors and enthusiasm that continues. scarlet: what does that mean for
m&a? we could argue that we should have seen a lot of dealmaking by now but we have not. osmar: redo expected to pick up. alix: i don't mean for the year. osmar: that is fair, but we are allah to libby. i think for the m&a market to pick up, we need stability at some level. once you get there -- and i think we are getting close -- i think you'll see m&a pickup. basically, we have had rheumatic swings in the oil prices and that leads to buyers and sellers and they can actually negotiate a deal. i think right now, it is hard to predict where it is going when it is all a tile. alix: thank you so much for joining us. osmar, global head of oil and gas and investment banking. scarlet: coming up, the federal reserve increasing interest rates for the first time in a most a decade in december, and the question now is, when will
insurer public and sell an advisor network. carl icahn has been pressuring aig to break up into three insurers. is pledging to use his personal fortune to backup hedge funds. the companyill cut by more than half. he is using his own investments as additional collateral. that is your business flash update. a risk accounts, it is off in the equity market. or it has been. the s&p 500 has dropped 7% since the start of the year. it continues to write of confidence. bank of america merrill lynch are buyinge clients u.s. stocks for a third straight week. the s&p 500 is an orange and the net rise is climbing up at the end. alix: it is interesting considering the s&p 500 blurted on that correction territory and
markets went into corrections. some investors are relatively optimistic and finding an opportunity. what did they buy? energy and financials. the most to being up sectors and they have seen inflows. about 700 $6 million fluent to financials over the last week. $360 million into energy and about 6 million in etf's. it shows to us -- it goes to show her the money is moving. scarlet: as for who is buying, and there you go, you can see financial and energy up in the far left. buying lead last week and you also have hedge funds asked that buyers. most were net buyers and the only exception work private clients as the sole net sellers. alix: what they are buying has to be the large cap. they are buying made, large and small cap, but it is large
cap taking the cake. it does have exposure to the u.s. dollar, but it is interesting because they are buying when everyone else is selling energy and financials. scarlet: if you look at the bloomberg terminal, i have a chart that shows the relative strength of the financial to the s&p 500, more like relative weakness because it is a ratio. when the line goes down, financials are underperforming compared to the s&p 500 and a has been the case for most of this year. december 31 is right around to come at that big blind down, even though the fed is on the past to raise interest rates. alix: all eyes on apple today, reporting their latest numbers after the bell carried one key piece of data is whether iphone sales have heat. is in sanon francisco. it seems like the market over the last few months has been repricing to the slower iphone growth environment. how much is it kicked in at this point? p it has --
in quite aas baked bit. the magnitude is still unknown. we have seen this a lot when they launch a new iphone. apple wants to make should they can satisfy demand for the new release and it has gone to more and more geographies, so the launch is bigger. and the orders are bigger, so every order is bigger than it needs to be. you have a hangover effect and it is the greatest ever by the sheer nature of the growth in the cycle. how big of that is a hangover and slow down of sales? and the end product we arenknown, and expected to see a slowdown. the prediction for the quarter ends in march, the quarter we are living in right now, and that is the big question. scarlet: another big issue is the breakdown in china of sales because it is apple's second-biggest market. going forward, apple has to get
good from the market. corey: probably about 21% of sales in the past 12 months, and when the real things we will be listening today from apple is the notion of apple as a service , the success of apple pay, apple music, and the apple iphone leasing program, which suggests apple customers will be byline for the new phone subscribing to a service and giving them a monthly apple bill. those kinds of things and start to change the ability to discount future cash flows and give the stock higher value because the users of apple devices have to stick with it for the long-term and that can make a big difference in the future because new product releases that could come close to rival the iphone looks like it is impossible to achieve. scarlet: what about the apple watch? give us quarter to not a snapshot of whether it was significant as revenue driver. do we have any idea if it will be a big deal this quarter?
the $250 average selling sales so $2.5 million in is the general number they are looking for on wall street. i think we will look at this on the long-term. how many watches on their to each iphone? how many iphone users feel like they need the watch and the for that going forward? we will seat numbers penciled out to look like that in the years beyond. alix: they got $206 billion in cash, what will they do with it? have been paying dividends, but the u.s. stock cash file is a lot smaller than it was. a vast majority of the cash resides overseas and it will probably stay there for the for seeable future. alix: we will break down those numbers at 4:30 today. thank you. scarlet: still ahead, the fed is meeting for the first time since raising rates in december. what will we expect to hear from the central bank?
scarlet: welcome back. i am scarlet fu. alix: i am alix steel. scarlet: the fed will continue their meeting tomorrow and the challenge faces policy members. recognizing that the policy landscape has changed without taking an interest rate hike off the table for march. joining us now with more is dan. this meeting was supposed to be a nonevent and there is no press conference scheduled and it has become important in terms of what it signifies in the market. dan: it is a tricky one. no forecast schedule will be looking at just four paragraphs. they tend not to
change a lot. the evolution of these four glacialhs can be quite and it does feel like a lot has changed. one of the things that officials are dealing with is how did this thing was what is going on in the real economy from what is going on in the markets. scarlet: we have an example of the press release the fed came out within december and you marked it up. if you look at the bloomberg terminal, you can't show us what might change. for instance, in the first paragraph, how business investment has been increasing at solid rates. will haverst sentence to take into account the fact that growth has moderated, not just in moderation. scarlet: it is moderating. alix: also, earlier in the september meeting, economic conditions were nearly balanced and they took out the nearly and said they were now balanced. will they stick that nearly back in and what would that signify? dan: that got the tensions from
observers. that would signify that perhaps they see things as softening but they are not ready to hit the panic button. scarlet: and transitory effects of import prices. a lot of people have been saying that perhaps energies persistent decline is not transitory anymore callie have to think about it in a new light. you expect changes to that wording? stuck with that line transitory a very long time. the problem with making major changes to these statements in the absence of new forecasts and the absence of conferences, it does lead to wondering what fools do they have? pretty soon after 2:00 tomorrow, we may hear people starting to wonder about the testimony of congress. that is wednesday and thursday next week. she can talk as long as she wants and she might get some decent questions. that will be the first real opportunity to put some color on this statement.
alix: in terms of tomorrow, over at citigroup, they said we might get hawkish light, so keeping marks on the table and a will not roll out anything later but acknowledging that there have been issues. do you think the market is prepared for hawkish light? dan: i think they have encapsulated the issue quite well. it is such a carefully orchestrated rollout of the rate increase in december. this feels like way too soon to demolish that and demolish the projection forkful interest rate hikes this year. with that, they don't want to seem like a bunch of out of touch policy. how to approach the market without scaring people and without that opportunity to shape things that a press conference provides. that is why the congressional testimony will probably start coming into focus at about 2:15. scarlet: is there any chance she
might hold an impromptu prince conference? -- press conference? alix: they could do like a phoner? did they mention that? dan: they have stressed every decision is live, but it is also true that shifts in policies have only come at the meetings when there is not only a press conference but the quarterly forecast to back in that. sure, they could organize something on an impromptu basis, but how do you do that without scaring people? scarlet: thank you so much. bloombergs global economic editor. alix: a reminder, we will have a special show of "bloomberg markets" tomorrow. ♪
headquarters in new york, welcome back to bloomberg markets. let's start with the headlines and first word news with mark crumpton at the news desk. mark: military authorities are responding to a report of gunshots on the campus of the naval medical center in san diego. the spokesman says the sounds were heard around 8:00 a.m. local time in a building that houses offices, barracks and a gym for wounded sailors and marines. all emergency personnel have been asked to stay with me area. islamic state has set up in operations command to plan more terror attacks in europe according to the european union's crime-fighting agency. it says islamic state wants to carry out more attacks similar in paris.s michigan democrats are skeptical that an investigation into the tainted water of flint will be impartial. they say the special counsel has donated money to michigan governor rick snyder and the attorney general.
the administration has been criticized for downplaying warnings about lead in the water. blockingdemocrat is president obama's nominee to head the fda over the agency's approval process for restriction painkillers. ed markey of massachusetts its upset that the fda approved oxycontin for use in kids as young as 11. also, senator bernie sanders expressed concerns over what he described as the doctors close ties with drug industry. former texas governor rick perry is joining ted cruz's campaign in iowa. make sevenuled to stops with him in iowa today. here he is the longest-serving governor in texas history and twice ran unsuccessfully for president. he announced his endorsement of ted cruz yesterday. dayal news 24 hours a powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you.
16% so farrices down this year. while that might translate into good news for consumers, it may mean falling revenues and a hit to housing for states and municipalities in oil-producing regions. scarlet: the mayor of houston was elected in december. he joins us from houston. guest: thank you for having me. alix: you have a lot on your plate. last year at this time, is talking to bankers, housing developers and everyone said no big deal, the oil price is not affecting us. as time around, i can't even get people on the phone. what is going on down there? certainly effected by the decline in oil prices. hopefully things will not last for a long time and thank is a farhouston
different city that it was in the 1980's when oil prices dropped. we have certainly diversified our markets. it has affected our sales tax. we have had declining sales taxes because of the price of oil being solo. thank goodness, the construction industry is still strong. the health care sector is still strong. you were born and raised in houston and attended school in the city. what did you see in the oil bust in the 1980's and how is houston better positioned this time around? in the 1980's, i would say we were 75% to 80% relying on oil and gas. today, we are maybe 40% reliable on gas. houston will always be an oil and gas town, but we are much more diversified.
billions ofing dollars on transportation and construction and you see people working on our thoroughfares and major roads every single day. unlike in the 1980's, we have two international airports within the confines of the city of houston. a third destined to be an aeronautical spaceport center. that did not exist in the 1980's. the texas medical center is continuing to lead the way not just nationally, but internationally. that is over and beyond what existed in the 1980's. on the convention side, not nearly as many convention is -- conventions came in the 1980's. the city of houston is the most diverse city in the country. far more diverse than any other
city that exists in the country. more people are continuing to come to the houston region. alix: nevertheless, you do have a knock on effect -- you have a hit on the retail side and services sector. what are the job losses you are expecting an oil and oil ancillary related sectors? several companies have announced layoffs. we have yet to see what the direct impact will be on the city of houston. there is no doubt many of the oil and oil related companies are losing jobs. the good news is, because of our business base, other parts are doing better. gain, not as net large as we would have liked, but we still have a net gain that comes to job creation and opportunities made available in
the city. alix: what about your local banks? what is your interpretation of how well capitalized they are? now,: i think for right they are doing ok. banks are not just relying on the oil and gas sector of euston. there are so many other markets doing well in the city and so they also have a diversified portfolio, unlike in the 1980's. everyone here is just trying to weather the storm. we don't know if it's going to last another six months or another year. we are paring ourselves and putting emphasis on other parts of the country -- other parts of the economy like health care until the rebound does come. we know that in time it will bounce back and when it does, to can weather the
storm now, houston will lead the way in terms of prospects for the future. if we can get past this, houston will be the most resourceful city of any city you will find in the united states. scarlet: you also need to get past a pension crisis. talk about how the oil price plunge has gotten in the way of your ability to address a pension deficit. >> one problem is our sales taxes will remain affected until oil prices come back. there's no question the current pension system is not sustainable and we are working to come up with a resolution on that, hopefully in this year. tothe same time, we want address our debt service and make sure we address any structural barriers that prevent us from utilizing revenue from a thriving city. unfundedo doubt the
obligations present a major challenge for our city and we have to tackle them and we are committed to doing just that. we are not as bad as some of the other urban cities out there, but we fully recognize the current course is not sustainable and needs to be addressed. i'm going to work with all the interested stakeholders to come up with a resolution that works best for the city of houston. alix: is there an oil price that makes you hit the annex button and what is it? around $30,ing hopefully it won't go below that and hopefully it will start to inch its way back. history of us having come through it in the 1980's has repaired as for where we are right now. let's just hope it bounces back. it may be a long time before it but i think everyone
will be delighted. we are going to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. we appreciate your insight. scarlet: as we get to break, we want to give you a check on how equities are performing right now. they are at session highs with the 292 points, so recovering from yesterday's declines as we talk about the correlation between stock prices and oil as oil prices rise. alix: the second best-performing stock right now is freeport. last weeklly beaten and has a high short interest. of shortwn, lots interests and now we see a 10% rally. scarlet: this is the anti-momentum trade right now. alix: and it has a lot of
exposure to copper and oil. scarlet: coming up in the next of bloomberg markets, bank of america added employees in latin america and that gave the bank a little boost. we will have the details alix:. and lots of attention on inflation. more than one fed president has warned inflation expectations are slipping. scarlet: and the former great find -- former greek prime minister gives us his thoughts on the current state of the greek economy. ♪
stocks are trading off their highs, undoubtedly the big story is apple, just hours away from the company's highly anticipated december earnings report. the stock has been flirting with that $100 level. we will see whether analysts have been correct to cut revenue estimates for the march quarter for negative growth for the first time ever. the stock has been down sharply on concerns around the iphone and those cuts. most analysts think it could suggest a big surprise ahead. andbook reporting tomorrow analysts are in a strong quarter. the big focus for investors will guide.2016 up x it remains the biggest unknown for facebook. the stock is up nicely over the last two years.
scarlet: you are watching bloomberg. alix: this is your global business report. scarlet: sony goes to israel to build its internet of things business as it moves away from consumer electronics. and bank of america up on hiring binge in latin america is paying off. scarlet: let's start with sony making a push into the internet of things, lying and israeli semiconductor company for $212 million. the deal will give sony the technology to power the next generation of smart appliances as it looks to grow beyond consumer electronics. make products with sensing capabilities. companies are increasingly looking to israel and promoting stronger ties with japan. alix: bank of america ranked
number one in latin america as a hiring inch helps it unseat a regional powerhouse. they added 300 employees in the past two years. it's the first ever top ranking for bankamerica. week marks the the threenniversary the party swept to victory in greece after trying to renegotiate the terms of the bailout. eventually, pride that -- the prime minister accepted the deal but had to swallow tougher terms to get it done. the former prime minister told bloomberg -- former finance minister said it was a failure. guest: he capitulated to a by people whocies know they will fail. it is what we have been doing for five years -- extending and attending. the insolvencyng
of the greek state and the banking sector can be overcome by means of new loans by measures that cannot work. saudi arabia is signaling no surrender in the oil price or. the world's biggest oil producer is spending as much as it did before the crash. the chairman said they are maintaining investments in oil and natural gas -- natural gas projects. that's adding to the global supply glut that has pushed oil prices nearly in half. for more stories, visit bloomberg.com. scarlet: investors are beginning to show increasing doubt that the fed will get inflation up to its desired level.
they highlighted data showing inflation expectations may have declined. alix: if that is true, it may be really bad news. here to explain is brendan greeley who has been crunching the numbers. brendan: one thing we are noticing among central bankers is they have a case of the however's. if you strip out energy, we are not seeing that much of a price decline. however, we are becoming concerned inflation expectations are dropping down. the reason that might be a big of models that look at inflation in the future are based on expectations right now. if expectations drop, that's an order of magnitude more problematic. that affects the models and their planning. this is an issue of real concern stop there are two ways to measure this.
one is if you look at market inflation. i've got a chart here. breakg at the treasury even, the market expectations. when you get all the way down to the right, you can see it slip a bit well below target and well below the fed's addiction. the other number is what bill dudley is looking at and he is looking at consumer expectations. still way higher than it should be. what is important is they have slipped. it is at the bottom of expand for the last two decades. scarlet: why do we care about expectations? expectationsuse are a leading indicator of what is going to happen. comprised of what we think inflation is going to be. alix: inflation is oil. brendan: inflation is oil but a we arebankers are saying
not worried about it. strip out oil and we are almost to where we should be. but they are beginning to notice is there are some aspects that may not just be oil. if the price goes down, that feeds into other articles and once other articles are affected, you are looking at expectations. we may be lower for longer because of the way people think about it. alix: good stuff. scarlet: coming up, more from the former greek prime minister. ♪
alexis tsipras took power, promising and into austerity measures in greece, a move it ultimately had to reverse. we spoke with the former finance minister in an exclusive conversation on whether greece will get the recovery money it needs. they troika is taking money from one of its pockets and putting it in another. -- thisk state borrows is not money for greece, this is not money that goes into some kind of investment for recovery. even becausel be the troika wants to pay the troika. this is the exercise we are witnessing. cut.ension funds will be this is not a reform. taking a meat cleaver and cutting is not reform. surgery is reform. what we needed in greece is to find a way of putting together our pension policies, social security policies, and
rationalizations of the funds. involvingstrategy privatization and using public assets of the state as collateral to create a homegrown investment stream into these capital assets to improve their value and ring all of it together so the profits from these investments can be and recapitalize the pension funds while at the same time, i would be very much in favor -- i have so many others lowers of touch the the pensions, which is what is going to be touched. we should be doing the opposite of what we are doing. >> is extend and attend, but all parties are playing the game at the moment. the reason the music was going to stop --
>> the reason we are having a terrible crisis -- europe and the imf decided to cover the bankruptcy, and extend and pretend. the reason you and i are talking about this -- >> they said this is not sustainable. backs it is not sustainable. , that wehe tragedy keep extending and pretending that everyone thinks it is sustainable. these are political event's. to leadomics is going to another fallout in greece. it's hard to predict, but it will happen. year, howar, next
long would you give it? stabilityan't see being maintained for more than a few months. people are suffering increasingly every day, europe is fragmenting as a result of the policies being applied in greece and transferred to portugal and elsewhere. you have to understand one thing -- this was my experience. there's been no conversation on how to stabilize the economy because greece is collateral damage in a broader game of rings been shipped. whathave not worked out they want to do with the eurozone. the eurozone is not sustainable and the french national budget is that which berlin has its eyes set up on. greece is not going to be allowed to be stabilized until
and unless the great powers of europe work things out among themselves. alix: that was a former finance minister of greece. scarlet: coming up, we will be sitting down with mohamed el-erian about his new book and get his thoughts on what the fed does next. alix: a quick check on the market as we had into break -- the dow holding on to its rally. the s&p up over 1%. overall a rally that we are seeing. scarlet: energy stocks leading the way, up better than 3%. two thirds of by 1%. ♪
from bloomberg world headquarters in your, good afternoon alix:. alix:here is what we are watching at this hour. centralel-erian says banks have to stop being part of the problem and become part of the solution. we will have an in depth conversation about how the global economy can grow again. scarlet: shares of apple have fallen sharply since the last earnings report. will the earnings justify the selloff? falling oil prices and chinese stocks are putting a dent in home sales, making homes like this one a tough sell. first, we want to head over to the markets desk for the latest. it's like we are off the session highs. just a couple of points
off the session highs. we had those cries about 40 minutes ago. the dow is up the most in terms of percentage and the nasdaq up by 1%. definitely a turnaround we are seeing from yesterday's selloff. consumer confidence better than expected. take a look at my bloomberg terminal -- you can see it is a broad-based come back, everything from energy to utilities. most, just off its session highs by sector followed by financials up by nearly 2%. the 10 s&p sectors are of 1% or higher. let's look at what is happening with the dow because we can see
reaction from the consumer confidence number that hit at the 10:00 a.m. market and we have not looked back since. aboutgh for the day, seven points off of that and energy being a deciding factor, let's look at wti crude. it is just off of its session highs. this is its biggest jump since friday. 9.5%.t day, it jumped by because of this clawback, is now down by 14%. alix: oil is not the only thing in commodities rallying today. ramy: it's interesting because usually gold will fall as investors go into equities, but this is the paradigm right now oneold futures rose by point way 5%, just off their session highs. rising, up by 2%.
this is it against jump since mid-december. part of the reason for this is china imported the most refined copper person's 2008, taking advantage of low prices happening right now. scarlet: let's check in with mark crumpton and the headlines from the news desk. a reportpokesman says of three gunshots heard at the naval medical center in san diego came from a single witness. he said the shots were reportedly heard in the basement of the building. first responders and dog units are clearing the building. a medical center remains on lockdown. terrorharged in alleged plot to detonate a bomb on a florida beach has been found competent to stand trial. the fbi says he told an informant that he want to detonate a backpack bomb on a key west beach.
he was arrested in july after accepting and inter-device from an undercover fbi agent. his trip tof europe, hassan rouhani gave the pope a rug and asked for his prayers. pope said iran has an important role to play in fighting terrorism. president rouhani is is adding italy and france this week. are beingl salvador urged not to have children for two years. there is a virus linked to brain damage in children. more than a million brazilians have been affected and nearly 4000 infants have been born with deformities. children's agency is seeking $3 billion to deal with humanitarian emergencies this year. about a quarter of that appeal will target education. the largest chunk of the unicef appeal target syria and
neighboring countries that have taken and millions of refugees from syria's civil war. global news 24 hours a day howard by our tree 400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. back to you. scarlet: as the u.s. stock market battles its worst start on record, policymakers have run out of ammunition to confront a downturn. alix: mohamed el-erian, chief advisor at elian's and bloomberg commentator talks about this new reality in his new book which is out today. he joins betty liu. we will send it to you. betty: congratulations on your book. to be withnderful you. betty: how long did it take? mohamed: it took about four months to write but i have been thinking about it for a long time.
: when you say the only game in town, you are obviously talking about central banks. that is all we have talked about in the market volatility, what are the central bankers going to do? i want to read an excerpt here whether we canss go up or down from here on out. you say "the direction involves a restoration of high inclusive ofwth, the other road is one lower growth, persistently high unemployment and worsening inequality. there's equal probability of these two very different outcomes." i read that and say after all the central bank help, it's a chance for either or? mohamed: i would love to say it is going to be this or that, but there simply is not enough evidence right now. to issue for policymakers realize is that the road we are on right now is going to end.
central banks are no longer going to be a to borrow from the future and no longer going to be from the future. we either produce that there a better holocene response or we have to give it back. there is nothing predestined. what the book tries to set out is -- betty why is it ending? it is huge. the tensions and underlying contradictions are all around us. we see markets become more volatile. outre getting less growth of the system and political movements become more extreme. wherever you look, the tensions are there. a regime tensions with that is ending. it's hard to say when it is going to end, but it is clear to me that we would have tipped one
way or another and that has massive implications on how to position yourself. this: we are approaching tea juncture. who do you think among the major economies right now is heading in the right direction? this is interesting because even well-run economies are getting contaminated. it's hard to be a good house in a challenged neighborhood. china is making uncharacteristic policy mistakes. it is hard to be a good house in a challenge neighborhood. you end up getting contaminated. if you want to say which are the most robust economies, you would put the u.s. up there. unfortunately, we are not escape velocity. andwould put india up there a few asian economies of there, but that is about it. at the other end, you have growing economies that could tip
into a bad equilibrium. the bank of england governor made some comments yesterday and i thought it was interesting -- i talked about this with you last week, he seems to be talking about how u.s. monetary policy is affecting the rest of the world. let's run what he said. tightening of monetary policy could lead to a tightening of global financial conditions and could accelerate, so it is a contributory factor to these developments. betty: is that surprising to hear? mohamed: i think he's pointing out something important. centralook at the banks, you have one that is easing off the excel a reader, the fed.
you have the european central banks, the bank of china and bank of japan are pressing their foot on the accelerator. the emerging markets are on the back of that car and it is confusing when you have central tanks. them trying to cope with that volatility. what do you think the fed is going to say tomorrow? mohamed: it will neither continue to raise rates, nor will it panic. i think it will mention the market volatility and mention the weakening of global conditions, but it will not make a fuss. it doesn't have any evidence that it is contaminating us, but we are keeping a close eye on it. did.ll not do what the ecb betty: why not? they lose credibility?
mohamed: they don't want to before stint to the markets of changing policy stance. what's going to be important is in the minutes that will come out, see how much division there is. that was in usual -- that was unusual and the hawks are becoming more dovish. betty: do you think anyone has remorse on the fed board right now? mohamed: i think some do. the markets welcomed the first hike and it was fine for a few days. and they volatility returns you get more people in the marketplace asking if it was a mistake. it's interesting to see how the market view is shifting. i don't think it was a mistake. we should expect more volatility because we are coming from a
very artificial regime, but the markets don't like this volatility. : they don't and reacted in a very benign way, but then look at where we are now. i want to get back to your book. there was a review of the book had ae thing the reviewer problem with in your assessment was "i wonder if mohamed el-erian the investor has not unduly equipped the policy maker here? striving to keep one's options open can be counterproductive. you say in order for us to deal with this new environment, you have to think of lots of different options and be flexible, but sometimes you can't. isamed: when it is 51/49, it intellectually dishonest to up one side. the other thing that is important is -- this is what
chairman bernanke called an unusually uncertain -- it doesn't mean you are paralyzed. one of the things that struck me when i was researching the book is the fact that we as human beings tend to make persistent mistakes when we don't understand uncertainty. recognizing line spots at doing something about it -- let me give you an example. most people tell you cash should not be part of your asset allocation. that's conventional wisdom. to when you need resilience and toth a bad outcome take advantage of a good outcome, having cash as part of your asset allocation is the right thing to do. conventional wisdom, but this is not a conventional wisdom world. if i would tell you that we would have negative interest
going. you have people saying we are in for another 10 or even 20% decline in the markets. one of them is doug graham zusi -- one of them is doug ramsey. let's listen to what he said. you've taken the second-most expensive bull market in history and market down to average valuations. whether we turn bullish at that point depends on market action and other economic factors look like at that point. i think it will be a rapid descent that could happen over the next few weeks. leasee that and go into a bear market, do you think the fed will do something. and go into ahat bear market, do you think the fed will do something? mohamed: it has to contaminate the economic fundamentals. so far, the volatility and price correction has been a financial market event, not an economic event. as long as that stays the case,
the fed will not do anything. if the fed senses the spill over onto the economy, people will become a lot more risk-averse and spend less. less,panies invest even then they will move, but so far, this has been contained to be a financial market event. betty: what if we see a financial recession -- and earnings recession? if we see people not spending their oil windfall because they're worried about all the volatility -- we had two things happen. yes, we are having markets come down but even more importantly, we are getting massive swings on very little data. betty: that is a lack of liquidity. a change in the volatility regime. the minute there will be
volatility, we will get a statement out of the federal reserve calling things. that is no longer happening. we have lost a stabilizer. the more stabilizers we lose, the more volatility you get. betty: do you think we are headed for a recession? mohamed: i put the chance of that at 30% a few months ago when we talked. people reacted quite a bit. most economists are getting to 20% or 25%. is quitehis year, it hard to get a recession unless you get a major global disturbance. betty: and what form? mohamed: either a massive policy mistake out of china or massive market action because it turns out some people had way too much leverage on and are forced to sell. thatr, the probability of
is not dominant, so i don't think you get a high probability of recession next year. we get closer to the t junction where major decisions have to be made. betty: what factors into your 30% probability? mohamed: the first thing is we have not promoted growth so far. you don't promote growth, the higher the chance for secular stagnation. lower potential. issue is we have financial prices that are decoupled from the fundamentals. hard to retain. the third issue is central banks. the only thing adjusting is the currency markets. around long enough to realize that when currencies move a lot, they tend to break something and it is hard to predict. right now, the biggest is the
emerging world. we cannot let the currency markets carry that. if they do, there is a risk they will break something. : you could see a rapid devaluation in one of these currencies or several current seas. could we see some of these regimes totally tossed out? mohamed: if you are in russia, you feel lucky. wellbrazil, the same thing. these are unhinged markets. at some stage, they can break something. concern is the potential for currency war. that every country then decides they are going to borrow growth or steel growth from someone else.
scarlet: welcome back to bloomberg markets. alix: it's time now for the bloomberg is this flash, look at some of the biggest stories in the news right now. indiana may have lost as much as $60 million in revenue thanks to religious objection laws. a dozen conventions picked cities other than indianapolis over the upper of the legislation. played a says surveys role in the decision to locate elsewhere.
the move would allow next are to acquire the tv broadcaster after months of negotiation. they are said to be close to agreeing to a package that would include a $50 million breakup and no extra money. twitter has a new chief operating officer. after ofntment comes board lost four members of the executive leadership team over the weekend. scarlet: let's check in with the theets desk and look at biggest ramy: winners in today's rally -- weight watchers. interesting. every time oprah winfrey says she loses weight, the stock see the above bad today is no exception. weight watchers share prices up by nearly 17%. it had been up more than 19%.
in a video opera posted, she says i've lost 26 pounds and i have eaten bread every single day. she lost 15 pounds act in october and the share price jumped that in. moving on to the luxury sphere -- i want to look at coach. raising its full-year earnings outlook after a new design and up dated stores. how many iphones did apple fell question mark the earnings preview is next. alix: we will have a special edition of bloomberg markets tomorrow. it will be simulcast on bloomberg tv and radio. ♪
♪ oh remotes, you've had it tough. watching tvs get... ...sharper... ...bigger... ...smugger. and you? rubbery buttons. enter the x1 voice remote. now when someone says... show me funny movies. watch discovery. record this. voila. remotes, come out from the cushions, you are back! the x1 voice remote is here. alix: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." scarlet: let's start with the
headlines. mark barton has those from the news desk. mark: is another snow day for federal government workers in washington, d.c. offices are closed again while the city digs out from the weekend blizzard. meanwhile, air travel is slowly getting back to normal. more than 2500 flights were canceled late yesterday, that's a lot fewer than the previous two days. southern california officials have issued an message and it minis, as they hunt for three escaped inmates. it's believed to the men belonged to vietnamese gangs. police fear family members, or friends are hiding the inmates. denmark's parliament has approved a plan to seize valuables worth more than $1500 for refugees seeking asylum. the money would be used to help pay for their food and housing costs. danish citizens face similar rules, they must sell assets
worth more than $1500 in before getting welfare. donald trump has gotten a major endorsement from the evangelical community. jerry falwell, junior is endorsing from -- donald trump, who is running against candidates with deep ties to voters. tohas compared his style jerry falwell, dr. martin luther king jr., and jesus. global news, 24 hours a day powered by more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton, back to you. ceo is facing pressure from carl icahn. scarlet: returning $25 billion to shareholders, starting an ipo for the mortgage insurance business, and slashing expenses. here is peter cap -- peter hancock.
next we are going to make this company more focused, more profitable, and returned $5 billion to shareholders. that is speaking to all of our shareholders, all of our policyholders, all of our stakeholders. i'm sure we won't satisfy all of them, but we need to deliver a sustainable franchise if we are going to make the right decisions of trading versus long-term and short-term urgency. betty: why not break up the company? focused, andh more we're focused it down to what can deliver value to clients. riskusiness is absorbing a from clients and managing them. to manage those risks, need to use diversification. diversification is critical, if you were to break up the company, you would lose between $5 million and $10 billion of diversification benefits at the minimum.
$5 million and $10 billion of diversification benefits at the minimum. and that's in the eyes of the rating agencies. the betty: is it a tax asset? >> simply risk diversification. you have a sizable property uncertainties has balanced by the stable cash flows. from a tax perspective, the further reason why splitting the company would be sensible. we will lose approximately $1.3 billion per year in tax credits if we split life in retirement from property-casualty this year, or the next year, the year after. it's an annual cost that we would incur. was tosplitting them influence our role as the city, that cost to us is about 1/10 of that. the tax benefit is roughly 10 times the cost. that is certainly not a reason. the diversification issue is a much greater issue. betty: carl icahn and others would say that diversification hasn't worked, your return on equity lags your peers. how is this new design that you unveil this morning going to
bring you back to double-digit returns next week? >> what we have done with this disclosure is help people understand our return on equity by dividing it between operating businesses and the legacy businesses. more than .25 percent of the is legacycapital capital. things that we developed over decades that are in the process of exiting. that has hourly that's between 3% and 5%. by breaking out the operating business, the r lee is much more competitive and we have plans to make it very competitive. pure comparisons are more meaningful than looking at the aggregate numbers. betty: how is your hedge fund performing? >> hedge funds are important part of the portfolio. we are reducing. it's not an efficient use of our capital. we are diminishing our allocation hedge funds. portfolio $11 billion
, about a $400 billion balance sheet. it's a modest allocation. but it has been disappointing over the last couple of years. we will stay in a more focused group of hedge funds, that's our strategy. if you look at the plan to return $25 billion of capital to shareholders over the next two years, half of that plan is reducing our allocation hedge funds. $2 billion of that return to shareholders is by de-risking the asset side of the balance sheet. betty: carl icahn want to to focus on your property and casualty, which is not perform that well. how do you plan on creating profit in that unit in a time of lower rates? >> an important part of this plan is to break the property-casualty and the life insurance into more modular business units. at least nine to start off with, and then more later. what you see as we do that and
reveal the return on equity at that level. some of them are performing exceptionally well. others have work to do. i think demonstrating the pieces that need work and demonstrating the combination of cost initiatives as well as a more narrow focus on more profitable sectors will deliver the improvement is necessary over the next two years. alix: that was aig's ceo peter hancock with bloomberg's betty liu. scarlet: coming up in the next 20 minutes, it may not be all about the iphone. we bring you other concerns that apple faces. alix: luxury homes are having a tough time getting sold in this market. we tell you what's behind the decreasing demands. inflationcarlet: executions of slipped. what does this mean for the fomc?
scarlet: apple will report fiscal first quarter earnings today after the bell. , ask is underperforming morgan stanley and other firms reduced iphone sales estimates. what do the numbers say about apple? we show you in the numbers don't lie. slowing iphone sales poses a major risk for apple since the company relies in the device for two thirds of its sales. since the introduction in 2000 seven, sales of the smartphone have risen at an average annual rate of 56% are in if you look at shipments, the yellow bars -- the orange bars, they have plateaued. which translates into flat growth. that's the blue line. the blue line has come down and is expected to say in the single digits.
best to stay in the civil digits. stagnating sales are making investors nervous. here's a look at how growth in china has outpaced the rest of the world. making up for the slowdown elsewhere. can see a redline, you it goes straight up, now nearing saturation. an industry group estimates that unit growth rose just 1% last year. you have a fixation on margins and apple. because china is apple's second-biggest market, the fear is a slowdown in the country's economy could drag on apple's profitability. the yuan evaluation makes iphones more extensive, which opens the door for competition with local handset makers or made prompt apple to raise prices. there's a lot of hope pinned on other products. apple shipped almost 13.9 million watches last year, at 50% of the total estimated smart watch market. still, the number to watch for is an estimated 75 million iphone unit sales last quarter.
and thekeep eye on that rest of the earnings report after the close of u.s. trading. alix: a great breakdown. apple investors are keeping their focus on the iphone number, there are other issues besides peak iphone that pose greater risks to the world's most valuable company. , she bring in abhey lamba joins us now in san francisco. as well as paul sweeney, who joins us here on set. earliermade this point in our meeting, that part of the issue for apple is as it transitions into a subscription model business, where are in this transition? abhey: they are just beginning to get into the scripture for -- subscription model. it's a strategy to make people via phone every year, becoming better customers for them. we have to see how well that will work. every two to three years, people
have to replace their iphones. on top of that, they buy services and other products. that is something that has people focus on the other products that apple will be introducing, or hazardous. paul, if you look at the services like apple music or for instance, apple pay, where are we on that? i don't hear a lot of how that moves the needle for apple. paul: that's the concern for apple investors. they recognize this is essentially a telephone story. there are other businesses that apple is trying to develop. none of them to date has really gone to the scale where it can really move the needle. that includes apple tv, which is something that steve jobs before he passed suggested would be a very big part of their business. to date, we just haven't seen much. the: you point out that value of an iphone customer is $1200. how do you get to that number? how does apple keep expanding
the base? that number byto assuming people might iphone are a couple of years and and we attach some of the services that paul just mentioned, music, tv, other these products. ipad or watches to that, based on what sales of been until now. when you do lifetime value of the customer, it gets to about $1200. how can they expand that? making people buy new five phone every year during absolutely. we don't know if they're going to get there. the other way to get them is to have more services. have other products that people want to buy. the watch has not been as successful so far, let's see how it does. on apple tv, paul is right, it hasn't taken off. the other problem seems to be the business model. there are bottlenecks the need to get over. but make people buy more. alix: how much pricing power does apple really have?
you mentioned in china you have the yuan devaluation that puts it in a corner. they have to raise prices or potentially lose shares to local editors -- local competitors. abhey: we don't think they have much margin left. a lot the devices are becoming good enough. if anything, apple is seeing a shift towards midtier or low-end forms. that is something we are looking of in the numbers, in terms psp is of iphones. that will give us an idea of mid-shift. we expect mid-shift will the thierry henry. alix: apple has a huge big event, $206 billion. you talk about trying to beef up streaming and cyber growth. when do you think they do with that money besides buybacks? paul: i think so. when you take a look at the tv business, it's been a disappointment for apple. alix: i love apple tv. paul: the problem is, there's no
content. that's the real difference when apple looked at hollywood versus the music business 10 or 15 years ago, when apple was able to get a tremendous amount of content and nature medicine on control and ownership of the content, which allow them to create the itunes store -- a tremendous amount of control. when you go to hollywood, hollywood has learned a lesson from the music industry. they learn to protect their content and to charge for every piece of content that goes out the door and every type of window. that has made it difficult for a lot of people to form long-term programming relationships with some of these hollywood studios. it, likent to do netflix, you have to pay a huge price for the content. we see netflix with a programming liability of close to $11 billion. is that a business that apple wants to get into? today, it doesn't seem to be their business model. scarlet: what is the biggest obstacle for apple to get the video streaming content strategies going? essentially, what
happened to the music industry, with the media industry doesn't want to have them happen to them. essentially, what we are seeing is there's a lot of resistance, you see what happened in one industry, they don't want to be at the receiving end of these dynamics. it's one of a really hard to nail those things which are important. ae new apple tv is apparently big step forward from the previous generation apple tv. at the same time, it doesn't solve the fundamental problem of lack of content. building content is an expensive composition -- proposition. scarlet: you upgraded shares to to a buy. how do you look at apple? a revenuek at them as company, they had only 2% growth. -- a the chart for iphones smartphone growth over the next
few years. it's going to be tepid. it's going to be hard for apple to show meaningful growth, that's why we valued more. alix: thank you. abhey lamba and paul sweeney, and fixed a bloomberg intelligence. ramy inocencio has been tracking the latest, and looking at something missing this rally. i want to go to lockheed martin, where the share prices hitting a three month, down by little more than 1%. that said, it had been down by as much as 4.3% in earlier trading. so we are seeing the stock price clawback a little bit higher. becauseon for this is fourth-quarter profit, while it beat estimates on his 2016 full-year forecast came in on the lower side of estimates. eps was three dollar and one $2.98.r share versus this lightness was the expedition of net sales at least
49.5 billion the full year against $49.8 billion in sales. there's also news about a spinoff that's happening with locking, they want to separate and combine their i.t. tech services. lockheed holders will get 15.5% equity in the company. moving on to technology stocks and netflix in particular, netflix right now is down by 1.6%. almost hitting back to the flat line. it's downf of that, for the 15 a row. this is now it's longest losing streak. it's extending losses after it crossed its own 200 day moving average. the stock is down by 15%. last year in 2015, it was the s&p's tech darling, up high about 130%. also moving to autos, we want to go to harley-davidson stock. harley davidson is down off of session lows, down by about 2.7%.
this is still the lowest since august of 2012. this is after polaris said it's 2016 guidance lower-than-expected. polaris makes off-road as well as on road vehicles. this has been as low as 4.9%. so similar with lockheed martin. clawing back some of those losses. scarlet: thank you, ramy inocencio. alix: what is keeping this house on the market? we have some real estate porn for you. it has a lot more to do with china's economy than you think. scarlet: i could totally live there. ♪
a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. by 9.1%,is cutting saying higher market volatility could damage the economy and bring about an earnings recession. the bank set of u.s. strategy sees the s&p ending the air -- ending the year down. the housing market still on a roll. home prices in 20 u.s. cities rose by 20% in the year ending in november. s&p case to the schiller index, portland, oregon was the fastest growing market. prices up by 11%. chicago the smallest increase, 2%. scarlet: billionaire john paulson says he will use his personal fortune to backstop his hedge fund firm. investment losses have cut assets by more than half. he's using his own investments as additional collateral.
and that is your bloomberg business flash update. mentioned, u.s. property values are seeing their biggest advance in july 2014, according to this morning's case-shiller report. however, the luxury end of the market is suffering, dropping currency values and sliding oil prices are hindering foreign buyers from purchasing in the u.s.. isx: the six bedroom mansion selling for a discount, at $3.7 million. and yet, no one is biting. it's more the lessening demand homes, what is the trigger for the luxury market cooling off? problems overseas, which are kind of washing ashore and hitting the luxury market. those buyers are the ones who are most tied to those issues. scarlet: i imagine this affects
certain markets more than others, it for instance, california were that six room mansion -- six bedroom mansion is based, and also, parts of florida, for instance, where buyers from latin america will be looking. you see luxury homes in chicago doing well? prashant: i think there's a certain connection with wealthy people across markets. folks have these money in the stock market, for example. chicago, you may not have as many chinese or russian buyers, but you do have domestic buyers that may be concerned about these kind of big shifts in the stock market. time what is the lag between volatility in the stock market and luxury markets? prashant: there's a little bit
of a lag. thinking is, you know, i people, by the time you sign a contract, it could be a couple months before you actually close on the home. but there's also the lag in general, people need the kind of get sufficiently concerned before they hit the pause button. also forquestion was the flipside. once we see stabilization equity markets, how quickly do we wind up seeing the luxury market bounceback? prashant: and he gets more than the equity markets. again, it does depend on the markets. ,or example, in some markets the strengthening dollar is actually the biggest issue. because if you are in latin america, for example, all of a a miaminem a condo -- condo is more expensive. they are larger issues, different issues. and you get depends. i think the stock market is a pretty good barometer, but there
are many more issues going on around the world. scarlet: you also have oil prices for instance, in the houston real estate market. houston in general, you are starting to see a slowdown. across the market. signals, maybe not the bottom. it's only other price segment you are starting to see them get hit with the luxury market sales. a lot of the oil executives are there. scarlet: thank you, prashant gopal. alix: coming up in the next hour of "bloomberg markets," more on the state of u.s. housing. ♪
david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i'm david gura. u.s. stocks rallying today, the market shrugging off another slide in tiny stocks -- in chinese stocks. getting a boost from strong earnings reports. did carl icahn get what he wanted from aig? the world's largest insurer promising to turn $25 million to investors. some analysts say the moves don't go far enough. apple reporting earnings after the bell today, shares of the world's most valuable company have fallen 5% this year thanks to concerns over the iphone. will apple be able to put those concerns to rest? ramy inocencio has the latest. ramy: we are just at about session highs right now. ths&