tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg January 29, 2016 11:30am-12:01pm EST
mark: they will finish higher for the second consecutive week. 1.74% german by crafty corrode or. governor indicated there would be no cuts in the negative rate territory. a real boost to risk assets. to be fair safe haven assets worldwide falling to record lows across europe. it's been the month of two halves. the first dominated by volatility in china. and then central banks came to the rescue. the boj, the ecb and the fed. yes it's up over the week for the month it was like it will fall about 7%. worst month since august. worst january since 2008. every single industry group on the stoxx 600 is going to fall in the month of january led by the banks, the autos, and the
resources. roughly 500 stocks have fallen this month. volatility has risen this month. europe's big fear gauge has risen by 26% in january. the most since august. whenever surpassed the levels we saw in august when china devalued the yuan. it was about bonds. bond yields falling to record lows. look at the two-year portion of the curve. record lows in france, belgium, holland and germany. all negative. u.k. two-year debt has had its best year since 2009. back in 2009 the bank of england was buying debt. the bank of england buying debt. i asked simon smith how soon it could be the for the bank of england buys that again. let's check some hardwoods at him.
betty: i like what you say about crafty -- what is your name for druggie? -- draghi? super mario. mark: we can't get away from that one. super mario might be chuffed about the inflation. yes it's an improvement on the previous month. it was the biggest increase since october 2014. let's bring it into the equation. he admits that last week inflation could actually fall in the next couple of months because of declining oil prices. declining oil prices are pushing down on inflation excitations. that couldnario bring down its inflation forecast. the december forecasts are not looking to good. that could be ultimately to more stimulus.
it's basically a game of hi ising you can do, drag probably going to have to be better. betty: super marcy -- mario. out the time of the surprise bank of japan move. negative interest rate. the yen weakening as a result. can't say at these levels? -- can it stand these levels? expected to continue to follow. joining me is simon smith to discuss this along with other currency moves. has a history of surprising the market. is this surprising or unsurprising? >> you could put it in the convoluted way. [laughter] they owny options, nearly 40% of the market. at the same time the yen has been depreciating. i think the structural reasons
for allowing the yen to appreciate, turning positive again. it tends to sort of drag behind it 12-18 months. there are structural forces pushing the yen higher. i think it was part of their strategy. when you look at the details in terms of the with a negative interest rate will work, it's not all balanced at the bank of japan. the ecb is on excessive reserves of the deposit window. there is more acronyms for us to go. i can't keep up. convoluted,ing of what happened to the fed in with that complicate his job even further? there is talk by some very distinguished economic voices like jim grant that think the fed could roll back its rate hike. i want you to listen to what he said about that. >> the fed is going to recant
and reverse. there is an important chance it will return to zero or some policy equivalent to zero. 70 operative stimulus. -- some new outbreak of stimulus. longnk the fed waited too and it raises rates in what may turn out to be a recession. betty: we keep talking about tech being the big disruptor. ll the fed can ca the big disruptor. >> absolutely. from december they were seeing hikes. we have to look at the bigger picture so the u.s. recovery is relatively mature in terms of this comparison the postwar recoveries. i think a tendency to want to , but you can'tr
have a normal interest rate cycle when you are so well into the recovery. ofn you arty have this sort tracking gdp estimate around 1% for the fourth quarter, you have these worries on the global economy. in the first months of this year. it's not out of the woods that we do see some sort of cyclical downturn. boj: to what extent does easing put further pressure on super mario to do more in march? >> i think we are in the not toon where we are, the same extent as 12 month ago. people like yourself say 38 central banks easy so far this year around the world. off.of canada kick this
it's another surprise. we have seen the fed pair back and the bank of japan go. i think people will be more cautious with mario. whether it wass the market or super mario, we don't know who is leading who on. i think there will be more caution. taking the euro lower. also the ecb in terms of leading expectations too much. mark: i asked you on air. your answer blew me away. i was grateful you to give me an answer. i just throw it out there and get a look. what are the odds that the bank of england implementing negative interest rates within the next five years? are you brave enough to tell us what you said and why? for our viewers rates are .5% where they've been since march 2000. no one is talking about it but it could happen. >> i did ponder the answer a lot before i answered you.
mark: about three seconds. >> i said about 40%. you have to look at the bigger picture. the cycles that are going on. what is happening in japan. we are not all turning into japan that we had this huge long period of recovery and that is an slower in the u.k. nevertheless, it is getting mature. the likelihood in the next five years we would've had a 10 or period of growth looks stretched. and the policy response to that is that the recovery did falter. when you are already at .5 and you have huge amounts of guilt, negative rates naturally as a consequence are more likely. mark: .5% isn't necessarily the
flop. answering --you for answering my tricky last second question. great to see you. research director. 40% negative interest rate. those of the odds in the next five years. we will harangue him in the next five years. in on aet's check bloomberg first news this hour with courtney donohoe. the obama administration is looking to fight the gender pay gap with information. the white house wants private companies to submit salary data to the federal government. the plan being proposed would affect all companies with 100 workers or more. for every dollar men earn in the u.s., women earn $.79. that is risen just two cents since president obama signed the fair pay act seven years ago today. michigan leaders may have not about flint's poisoned water
long before the covertly acknowledged it. state workers were offered bottled water in january 2015. the contamination did not emerge until children tested positive for that in their blood nine months later. governor rick snyder is inspected assignability data with and $28 million more to help plant. -- flint. a judge in fort worth, texas will decide whether 18-year-old ethan couch should be held as a juvenile or as an adult. he was brought back to texas from mexico yesterday. kenai have violated his parole in his drunken-driving crash that killed four people. lawyers for boston marathon bomber filed a notice of appeal early this month. the judge denied his bid for a new trial. no details were provided on the grounds of the appeal. he was convicted last year and sentence to death in the deadly bombing. news 24 hours a day powered by
our 2400 journalists around the world. on courtney donohoe. mark: thank you. rupert murdoch is making a comeback. james murdoch will be the new chairman of sky. chiefpped aside as sky's executive four years ago after a hacking scandal that tainted the family name in the u.k. does this cement his status as the heir apparent of his father's vast media empire? >> surely it does. group.part of a larger previously inet the consolidated businesses, he had a 57 point stake. they are already experienced
about this business and a long-term investor. they are more likely to expand this empire. that's how i see it. there could be some minority opposition coming from shareholders. is of the best corporate governance practice? a globallt of having -- i think it will help sky. and he will be the chief executive at 21st century fox which leads to the obvious question, when will 20th century stake tryowns a 39% to gobble up the rest? >> it's difficult to get timing about this. sky high as a resilient platform. markets will be reacting positively. that is how i see it. the landscape continues
to change quite rapidly in the pay-tv world in europe. netflix just a few weeks ago unveiled their big expansion around the world. in particular in europe. how much of a threat is something like netflix to sky? >> the most important threat the -- iflicks has -- netflix you look at european commission, they went pan-european rights. they want operators offering content close to the european union. withtflix is gaining scale the latest expansion, is becoming a competitor. we can see them bidding where they had not previously. remember amazon has studio rights in germany. all the players as contenders and high premium content.
betty: what about competing for the valuable sports content. >> i think sports will always remain in the field of traditional pay tv operators. we will see increasing competition from telecom operators as we have seen in the u.k. they will be an upcoming auction in germany. poses cost inflation with sky. if you look in the programming costs, they have not grown as much as revenue. there is some room for sky to preserve its margins on that level. betty: thank you so much. erhan is with bloomberg intelligence. james murdoch coming back as the chairman. the battle of the charts. that is coming back as well right after the break.
♪ betty: welcome back. live from london and new york, this is the european close. i'm betty liu. overtime for global battle look at some of the most telling chart of the day and what they mean for investors. you can access all these charts on your bloomberg by running the function teacher to the bottom of your screen. kicking things off, senior economic correspondent brendan greeley. brendan: i have decided i am tired of hearing one phrase which is "nascent wage growth." one of the questions is when a redundancy inflation? the answer is when we see wage growth. people say there is nascent wage growth. when i look at the actual measures of wage growth, average
hourly earnings, there is a little bit of an uptick. we see some movement but it is not dramatic. this is the employment cost index. a different way of looking at the same thing. what companies are paying for their employees. that includes benefits. it has been flat. . it has not been dropping it is still at .5% growth. these two circles, this amazing movement, that is what nascent looks like. that is all we are talking about. betty: you are saying it's a topline? brendan: both indicate --betty: what do we get out of that? brendan: what am i, janet yellen? the lord on high? i can't tell you when this is going to happen. it's kind of barely happening. betty: you spend enough time down there. brendan, mark? mark: get rid of the rum because jamaica is no longer the best living stock market in the
world. i'm looking at the best-performing assets of 2016. it is normalized at 100. index is the best-performing stock market in the world this year. the white line. is up by 7.4%. its biggest members account for more than one third of its waiting. there are 56 stocks. it is a market cap of just $7 billion. no prizes for guessing. theghai's composite index best performing currency in the world this year. fascinatingly in malaysia. the orange line up by 3.79%. mesa measures to shore up the economy. malaysia is the big asian net commodity exporter. norway is the best-performing major currency.
the world's worst, angola. that you didn't know that. the bond market has outperformed the sovereign bond market. is the u.k. bond market. that is the green line. inflationy 2.8% as expectations get pushed further out. last but not least, the best-performing commodity is in gold. it is lean hogs. i've never mentioned hogs in my entire career bloomberg. up 18%. why are they doing so well? somebody help me. brendan: the best balance portfolio i could have would be tunisian equities, eggs, malaysian currency and guilt? that's my balance portfolio ? betty: it's mark: it's not up to me to give advice and portfolios. betty: imagine the money you
make on these charts. looking at your bloomberg. i have got to declare a winner. sorry even, i'm though you brought in the bacon, -- announced thatn the correct name of the malaysian prime minister. betty: brendan. brendan: swelling? betty: much more ahead. we are talking salmon, lean hog. you might want to start buying salmon futures considering the shortage. ♪
to buy it one salmon than it will be to buy you a barrel of oil. what is behind the boom? will be the impact on prices? hi whitney. what a great story. behind this surgeon salmon prices to a 30 year high? whitney: we have a couple of issues. normally --ver is norway, the world's biggest supplier of atlantic salmon. they had a little bit of a past issue in the last -- pest issue in the last four or five months. there was a parasite called sea lice. farmers had to do some cleaning measures, taking fish out and selling them. we have a little bit of a supply crunch hitting the market. since the start of the year betty: i pretty much lost my appetite for salmon right when you said sea lice.
how important is this industry to norway? the aquaculture industry is quite important. we hear about oil and gas from norway and the energy exports and how that really has taken a hit with the pullback we have seen in energy prices. seafood is another major industry in norway. it supplies billions of dollars into the economy. away -- in a way it's a little bit of a positive because they are seeing a pullback in oil prices. betty: just a few seconds. how much more expensive is sushi going to be? whitney: that's a little hard to say. there is a time lag in terms of when consumers see higher prices
versus when we see higher prices in the stock market. we could see at the consumer level particularly in europe. that is where norway ships a majority. mark: is that where we are heading? whitney: we could be seeing something like that. mark: fascinating story. you can read more about it. bloomberg seek your destination for the finest things in life. ni pursuits. stock prices rising for the second consecutive weeks. two weeks of gains, two weeks of losses. down for the month. ♪
scarlet: from world headquarters in new york, i'm scarlet fu. global stocks and bonds rally while the yen saints unsurprised stimulus from the bank of japan. brakes. economy puts the on growth in the fourth quarter raising concern about how much momentum it really has. an carl icahn gets xeroxed to split into two companies and he gets several board seats to boot. we want to head over to the markets desk with julie has been tracking the gains in stocks in asia and europe. julie: with the bank of japan surprise movement to go negative on the interest rates, an additional form of stimulus. that has had a ripple effect across the globe. it was not spurred by positive news from the u.s. on earnings. it's been an adjustinse