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tv   With All Due Respect  Bloomberg  February 1, 2016 8:00pm-9:01pm EST

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if your doctor says you cannot leave the bed, you will not make it. it does not matter, get up and .aucus this evening i windsor taken part in caucusing for their favorite candidates.
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moringa >> if you're sick, your
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doctor says you can't leave your bed, it doesn't matter -- get up and caucus. get up and caucus. mark: we're here at the des moines marriott downtown for our special bloomberg politics
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coverage. this evening, iowans are taking part in the quadrennial tradition of caucusing. the candidates and the campaigns in many cases have spent years preparing for this moment, but as always, the last 72 hours have been a frenetic sprint to the finish line. john and i spent part of yesterday traversing the state to see the closing arguments of the front runners, hillary clinton and donald trump, whose private jets shared the same runway. this evening, we will break down the races with several campaign operatives. but let's start with where things stand on the republican side. our final bloomberg politics/"des moines register" poll shows trump now leads 28%. marco rubio is in third, ben carson in fourth. we will talk about it later with our pollster, but now at this moment, what is the state of the republican race tonight? john: look, this is still a very close race. if you read margin of error, these guys are within it. trump went down, cruz went up, cruz would be in first place. turnout always matters. what is the composition of the electorate? how many people turnout? when we released the poll -- if turnout is small, and evangelicals turnout in large numbers, ted cruz could win the iowa caucuses despite all of trump's strength. mark: if either cruz pummeled or trump -- and marco rubio moves up. it could be a cluster at one, two, and three, which would have huge applications. john: we will talk later about the expectations game. the truth is that ted cruz has so much riding on this. he's banked so much on the state, and there was a perception that ted cruz had victory within his grasp. if trump wins tonight, there will be stories written immediately how ted cruz blue
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iowa. that is a bad storyline to be fighting, and it's a storyline that could leave him irreparably damaged going forward, despite all his money and strength. mark: neither man would look good dead if they lose, but trump can much more afford a loss. the only person who can come out of here tonight on the republican side with momentum is, potentially, marco rubio. john: especially if all the other establishment candidates are down below 5%. in that same poll, we had bernie sanders closing the gap with hillary clinton, who was once the clear favorite. she is now leading the race by a statistically insignificant margin, 45% at 42%. mark, the same question -- at this moment, not just based on the poll, but your fingertip feel, the time we spent seeing them, where stands the democratic race? mark: if you look at the normal measures in terms of organize, organize, organize, sanders seems to still be the hotter candidate. his crowds are bigger, they are more fired up. they're more engaged in a movement rather than a perfunctory performance of civic response ability. hillary clinton, the event we were at, i did not think was her strongest speech. but she still has organization, and the people supporting her are more likely to turn out and caucus. john: last night, her last event of the night was the best of hers, and it was an impressive by any measure.
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mark: except the turnout. john: it was reasonably good-sized, but still smaller than many of bernie sanders's events. that was her best night. i thought the results of the poll were good for both of them. we had a guest saying up by a couple points was where he wanted to be, so he didn't have to worry about being behind. from offenders point of you, you can see he was happy to be three down. they went out and said we came from 40 back to within the margin of error, one last push. that's the kind of thing that can push people. mark: i think the chances of survival are better than you think, but he needs to be within a couple points. and how you perform on election night matters. how you frame the outcome. it's much harder for him to come back with a loss that for her.
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john: one thing we were both struck by -- the $20 million he's raised. he can be a thorn in her side for months. mark: conventional wisdom is there are two candidates in this race if there's a high turnout. on the republican side, it's donald trump, who released this rallying cry video on facebook today. >> i want you to get out and vote, because if you don't vote, what we have done -- and this is a movement, a big, big movement -- that the whole world is talking about -- they say they have never seen anything like this in the history of our country. changing our government and changing our grossly incompetent leaders starts today, in iowa. mark: at a campaign rally this afternoon, he brought onto the stage his wife. >> hello, iowa. this is a very special night, and you're voting for your next president.
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the man who will work for you, who will work with you, and who is that man? i agree. he's the man. good luck. thank you. mark: so john, it's a question people have been asking for month, and today it comes to the fore more than ever. does mr. trump have the ground game that can deliver a victory? john: in the entire history of the show, i have never said this -- only time will tell. they have a real ground game. it is real, it is staffed by solid operatives. they are also trying to do something that is the hardest to do, to get people who haven't caucused caucus for the first time, for very untraditional candidate. the level of enthusiasm to overcome a slightly inferior ground game may be the story of the night.
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mark: they certainly don't have the network that ted cruz has. they certainly don't have the luxury of bringing people to the caucuses in a been there before. but i think they have sick we build something bigger then they have let on. john: again, we aren't going to know until a few hours. if they end up matching the kind of numbers and our poll, a lot of people who have been dubious will have to eat a lot of crud -- mark: the decision was not an uncontroversial one. but donald trump is competitive, but they know if they win this state -- john: he's on pace for the jugular. mark: he may get it. john: on the democratic side, bernie sanders has been saying for weeks that if the turnout on the democratic side blows the roof off, he will win. according to our poll, however, it looks like one third of democratic caucus goers will be first-timers, which is about half of 2008.
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mirror image question -- whether sanders's ground game is good enough to convert the ground game into a victory. mark: i don't think it is his biggest. the clinton people have people with different functions in every part of the state and he doesn't have that. but i think it is big enough to harness the enthusiasm in every other way. social media is quite effective to close the gap. i think his organization is big enough to do this. the question will be, can they get the college kids to caucus at home, and can they get first time people to go caucus. john: the thing that is true about both of these operations, neither one is a full, broad gauge turnout, which is smart. they built their turnout operations to maximize their vote.
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the sanders turnout is nothing like the clinton one, but it is working on the snapchat angle, doing things with college students, and even high school students. they may be able, just by targeting in that precise way, right to the heat of their vote. mark: they have also gotten organize, organize, organize. they still have a lot of motion. the television ads, his performance at the rallies, they do have a motion. that can supercharger turnout. john: all right. coming up -- mark: two great reporters, radio iowa opening up their notebooks and sharing with all of us. after that, the clinton campaign. all that coming up right here, after this word from our sponsors. ♪
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john: joining us now, two from the finest political journalists in the world. the honorable dan bals, chief corresponded to "the washington post," and ok henderson, director of radio iowa. guys, we're going to talk about stuff. we talked about the final poll and we want to go back and look at some things from that pull and get your thoughts. i know you have been marinating in that information, so let's
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put up this first graphic, which is about as good as any graphic we have. republican first time caucus-goers, cruz versus trump. let's take a look -- we don't. donald trump -- there it is. donald trump is holding 35%, ted cruz at 19%. what does that mean for this race. >> it means he has to get his people out. it means he has to produce a turnout bigger than normal. it means he has to do it through unconventional means, because we have not been able yet to see his ground game in the way we have looked at others. mark: the trump campaign has not been totally transparent. >> it is a different kind of campaign. mark: they have not answered questions. and anecdotally, i'm sure you hear what we hear -- lots of
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calls, really aggressive at events, and other times people say they aren't aggressive, and half the people have no tristan going to caucus for anybody. do they have a sophisticated operation or is it spotty? >> time will tell. is that what i'm supposed to say? [laughter] mark: make the case that they have a great operation. what are the signs? >> i have had people on the democratic side who signed up to go to their organizational meetings, and they are data mining to a degree that is more sophisticated than obama 2012, according to my sources. two, you go to the event, wade into the crowd, it's an interesting mix of people. i found a ron paul precinct captain from last time. it's an interesting group of people that he is attracting.
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the question is, we are all sitting here wondering, is he going to get those people to turn out? i talked to people who are first-time caucus-goers, people who last went to a caucus in the 1990's, and he's the first candidate who has really addressed the issues in a way that they would like to caucus again. mark: conventional wisdom is that cruz is not strong. is it true, or is he hanging on? >> i think it is entirely possible that it is overstated. i always say that because people tend to to latch onto something that it might be right and then it gets magnified, in the same way that people say rubio has a a lot of momentum. i think the cruz people are banking on what they have always been banking on, which is that he's organized that part of the
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constituency, which played a dominant role in past caucuses. john: the democratic side of the first-time caucus-goers -- the striking number from the poll, 34% would be first time caucus-goers. in 2008, 60% were first-time caucus-goers. there's a similar feel, but does this not suggest that those of them wildly overstated? >> if you look at 2008, democrat voter registration is about twice as many democrats as turned out. there's no evidence that either campaign is turning out in registering new voters, unless they do it tonight between 6:30 and 7:00, which is what happened eight years ago.
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if you look at the bernie sanders play game here, what strikes me is that, given the blizzard that may happen, and the fact that i'm a college kid and i'm going home, how many parents that you are skipping two or three days of school to participate in a caucus? i don't know how that will go over at home base. john: ok, dan, thank you both. up next, hillary clinton campaign. after this word from our sponsors. ♪
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>> i know that many of you here are already committed to caucus for me, and i thank you from the bottom of my heart. >> [cheering] >> strongest, most determined, best change maker i ever met in my life, senator, secretary of state, and the next president of the united states, hillary rodham clinton. >> i hope you will caucus for me tomorrow night. i hope you will go, i hope you will stand up for me, i hope you will fight for me, and i promise you this -- i will stand up and fight for you every single day of this campaign and when we win, i will fight for you in the white house. thank you and god bless you. mark: that with hillary clinton at a very big rally last night,
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joined by her husband and daughter. here to talk more about the clinton campaign in these final hours, jennifer palmery. seven hours of sleep between the two of you, not evenly divided. >> not evenly divided. [laughter] >> an hour. mark: you have both been through lots of situations to talk about how the clinton operation is feeling going into tonight. >> we feel really good about it. we understand -- we have a lot of confidence in the ground game, but what's important is under the mat. we find we have a lot of committed support. particularly, everything about hillary clinton's resume -- people have a lot of confidence, she has a lot of experience, they think she is the person to take the fight to the republicans. what we really want people to know, and what broke through
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tonight in iowa, is that she's the person who can make a difference in your life. there's a lot of frustration you see with voters on the left and right, and we think the answer to that frustration and what people are looking for is someone you understand -- what will you do next? how will you make the change? what is your plan? we think that is the answer to what people's concerns are feeling in their life, and think that has broken through in the last couple weeks in a way that hasn't before. it's great for iowa, but it portends well for her. john: you guys have been the last 48 hours confronted with yet another beat in the e-mail story. it seemed for a while that it was the ideal. how problematic is it to have that story come back into the headlines so close to caucus day? >> this story has been out there for several months. we've seen that democrats are increasingly focused on the
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issues, and that is why i think bernie sanders has tried to keep it on the issues, and not join with republicans in turning this into a political issue. in the last couple weeks, you have seen a set of troublesome leaks from republicans on capitol hill. you have seen accusations, saying that an indictment is around the corner. i think the sophisticated voters of iowa see right through that, and that is why all the commentary i have heard this weekend is rightly analyzing -- john: do you not sense -- bernie sanders saying let the process play out, that there was a slight tonal shift? >> i think they call that throwing shade. [laughter] john: so a tonal shift on his part compared to no one wants to hear about your damn e-mails?
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>> i think in the last two to three weeks, there has been an increasingly personal turn. the conversation up till now has been very policy oriented. we have kept it on policy matters. we've really pointed out issues on contrast on health care plans, and that is to be expected. but in the last few weeks, we have seen him liken her to dick cheney, which i don't think there is a worse insult to level out a democrat. you have also seen him question her integrity. i think the shift in his tone also bespeaks an increasingly personal tone. mark: as a factual matter, he raises more money from small contributions than she does. why is that? >> we feel great --
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mark: why doesn't she raise as much as he does? >> i guess i will let them talk about -- what i'm saying, we raised $115 million last year. we have hundreds of thousands of small donors. we have a -- mark: he raises more from small donors. you can pass. but you haven't really addressed -- >> we feel great about the amount of money we were able to raise. this makes me want to raise something you are trying to get at, mark. the "des moines register"/bloomberg poll had a really important stat, which showed that hillary clinton supporters were more enthusiastic than senator sanders supporters.
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this is the first time we have seen that, but i think what it shows is the more people are exposed to hillary clinton, the more enthusiastic they feel about her. that, again, we think that bodes well. mark: any election day rituals you do for luck? >> come on. i try to do it -- mark: you got a boiler room you will be in tonight? >> there is a boiler room. they want people like us out of it. mark: thank you. break a leg tonight. coming up, donald trump, jr. joins us on the set to talk about their dad's campaign. and you can join us on the radio in washington. ♪
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>> as we mentioned earlier, the
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biggest question of don't from's -- of donald trump's campaign is, will the thousands to attend the rallies caucus? >> the challenge is to take the organic energy from rallies like this into caucus-goers. >> let's say they approach this the way a traditional campaign would. some of these people are more likely to can -- to caucus and others need a push. about half of trump supporters say they have previously attended a caucus. if you can count on half of the crowd turning out, what about the rest? trump has to find out the rest of them and he has to go contact them at home. here is what it takes to get them to show up. volunteers show that -- research
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shows that you need 14 conversations to get someone to vote. they will have to devote two hours and 20 minutes. so, let's say, as many insiders think is possible, that 140,000 caucus. trump gets 28% of the votes. if you counts on half of those, that leaves 39,000 that he has to find and mobilize. that adds up to 400 67,000 hours of knocking on doors or $1.8 million -- 467,000 hours of knocking on doors or 1.8 million dollars, by traditional tabulations.
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>> our thanks to our diminutive colleague. we have trump jr. thank you for joining us. >> great to be here. >> politics is a new thing for you both. we are going in to the science. how much do you understand of this? >> very little. you do not need to know that this is an unconventional candidate. we have been going all over the
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state for the last 2-3 days and people have given us hugs, saying, i am going out and voting for donald trump. i have taken everybody with me and i am signing them up. the advocacy and the movement is incredible and i think we have a lot of energy. >> what have been highlights for your family so far? >> the warm welcoming as we go around iowa -- so far? >> of a warm welcoming as we go around iowa. they thank us for letting him change the game. i hear from people saying, i have never caucused ever. i think your statistics are accurate. the speeches and the movement he is able to create by speaking and then going to listen to him, those people do not need to be touched 14 times.
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>> how does the family deal with these moments? >> it is hard. he is an amazing father. there is no one closer than us. when he gets hit, it hurts. >> he does not seem bothered. >> you want to jump through the television and attack back. we have been in this long time and we understand the game and the nature of the politics. you have to have thick skin in this game. it is a brutal and interesting problem. >> half as brutal as new york real estate? >> hard to believe. >> more the things your debt has done beyond all the other unconventional things is he cites polls.
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most of them are tilted towards him. is this a reflection of his business orientation? is that what that reflects or is there something else going on? >> he is a brass tacks kind of guy. he figures out how to make things work and cut through red tape. that is what we are going to do. all washington is is red tape and he is saying that he is not beholden to anyone and he is going to step away from the company. he said, kids, the company is yours. i do not care about that. the country has done amazing things for me and it is time to give back. >> it is a level of pride. everything he has ever done he has built himself.
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it is great to talk about the skyline or winning the presidency of the united states. he stepped into politics five months ago. >> it is unusual. he talks about the polls all the time. is he surprised that he is on top of every poll? >> this is the toughest job application in the world. no question about that. commander in chief of the united states, if you do not pinch yourself a little bit, you'd be lying. did he think he was going to do incredibly well, yes. did he think he was going to be winning across the united states? i don't know. probably not. probably not. >> extraordinary family by a lot of them -- by a lot of measures.
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in what ways is he a normal father. >> people think of the corporate oligarch billionaire. he is a hamburger and football game kind of guy. in the way he conducts himself, he is much more blue-collar american. >> does he help you with personal problems? >> is a great sounding board and he is intuitive. he listens to everyone. he will give credence to the doorman of the building. back i really knows what is going on in the world. he will ultimately make his own decisions. he has made up his mind. when you make a decision, it is real knowledge. >> if he comes in second here and does not win, having been ahead in every single poll, winning matters to him a lot.
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if, the first time he puts himself before the voters, he does not win, some people think he will crumble. take us inside your dad if he does not win? >> listen, we are positive people and we have done well in the race. we think we are going to win. we have all been out there. will we go into new hampshire as the clear front-runner? absolutely. i think we will will dissolve -- we will pull this off tonight. i think the people switching from the independent and democratic side just to vote for him has been incredible. we have seen a lot of that. >> he will brush this off and just move on? >> it is a hard state to win.
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you know this better than anybody. i think that we will win this decisively. >> do either one of you intend to run for public office? >> i think that we like building buildings. it is a lot easier. >> thanks to both the you trumps -- both of you. we have some of the cross tabs you have not seen yet after this. ♪
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>> you have not had a winner in iowa. we are going to have a winner this time. a winner.
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we are going to change that. 16 is a lot of years. >> the queen of the crosstab and behind the des moines register poll. here to talk beyond the numbers is ann. we had questions about the system being rigged -- do you think the system works for everybody? do you thin -- talk about the results. >> on the republican side, it says a lot about the mood of the election and why donald trump is leading. >> of the people who set the system is rigged, 39% support truck and 19% support crews. -- support trump and 19% support
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cruz. people see him as more of a change agent than other candidates. >> you have to describe trump as rich and powerful, but he would be better at fixing things with the rich and powerful. it is interesting. >> one of the things we do not discuss much is geography. in the western part of the state, i know you think that is important. >> i do. that is the evangelical heart of the state. steve king endorsed ted cruz. it is the home of vanderplatz. donald trump is holding his own
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in the fourth district. you would figure that would be home base for ted cruz. the fact that that is competitive, i will be watching those counties tonight. >> they say "definite" versus "probable." let's look. put that up. among the definite caucus-goers, clinton is leading. among the probable caucus-goers, sanders leads. if sanders is going to win, he has to turn probables into definites. >> definites are a core and she does well. the probable is adding people in and there is a correlation with never having caucused before. >> the categories come from
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"self identification." you see trump doing well. >> actually, with both groups. >> it is counterintuitive. you might think, given that he is bringing in a lot of new people, they would not be enthusiastic. >> they are committed to him and there is a lot that could happen inside the caucus. >> there are people who say they will not switch. >> you have found from supporters fascinating and i do not understand it at all. they are the least mobile. what does that mean? >> "mobile" meaning -- one of the things we just talked about is that he has supporters and they like trump a lot.
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his favorability with anybody who is not a trump voter is 29%. cruz's favorability is 54%. the rest of the candidates are held in higher esteem. he is just an insular candidate. >> it is good to know they are not "housebound." >> there is more fluidity among the rest. >> there has been a little bit of coverage of this in the media. maybe the poll has been misdescribed in a lot of ways? >> on the republican side, i am hard-pressed to identify a
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single issue upon which people are basing their vote. this is more a "mood" election. that is why donald trump and ted cruz are doing well. ben carson, another one who was never in government before and people believe that any change, any difference, is a good thing. >> have you ever seen an election like this before? >> never one where they spent less time about issues. they are not talking about health care and taxes. it would typically be a dominant issue and there is hardly any talk about it. >> this poll was released on saturday. the end of the campaign is stump speeches. there have been no ads or last-minute endorsements breaking through.
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the only event has been the poll. do you think it will have an impact on the race? >> if you look at the science of that, it is hard to say which i would say there is momentum there on the trump side. on bernie sanders' side, he started at 5% and never lost ground. every poll, he has gotten higher support. there is a built-in idea of momentum, even though we did not see a lot of change in the field. >> you can get more on our website and on the m1 register website. there are lots of things to read. we will be right back. ♪
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>> joining us now are nice members of the politics team. megan murphy and margaret, a correspondent and so much more -- a correspondent and so much more. you have spent a lot of time thinking about sanders and clinton as we head into the caucuses tonight. what is on your mind? >> turnout, recapturing the 2008 coalition. what is a win for hillary clinton? is it big enough to put sanders away?
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>> a couple of points staves off a turnover in the campaign. it is a problem and it slows down her momentum along the way. >> talk to us about the other side of the aisle with ted cruz and donald trump. >> what i am looking for is turnout and if trump can get people out to the polls. i think we are really going to see how the republican party is going to split here. is it going for is feeling? -- a feeling? or, it is going to go with the kind of -- [indiscernible] >> we are having trouble with your mic. we are to fix that and get back to you.
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sanders had a good month and nothing like if he wins here. i think about the balance of power going forward and how the clinton people deal with the fundraising. >> things will happen on five or six levels at the same time with fundraising. he will face a challenge that all candidates who embrace the mantle of shunning big-money face. can you keep that up? how long can you keep that up? the further challenge will be that nobody looks at her like they do like jeb bush. nobody thinks that is going to happen. everyone thinks she is the presumptive eventual nominee.
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how long that goes forward and, for sanders, what this means, it is a campaign that was not prepared for dealing with what they are dealing with now. >> it looks like ted cruz will have $20 million. other establishment candidates combined have that. we have a story about jeb bush and goldman sachs. >> my favorite story of the day. if shows how unsuccessful his campaign could be. he was going to get all this money and he had all of this money in the first half. in the fourth quarter, for just goldman employees, he had two donations, totaling 29 -- totaling $2900. if goldman sachs signal the rats leaving the ship, they have definitely left. >> thank you for coming and we will be right back.
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>> get on our website. there are a bunch of stories there. they compare donald trump to ted cruz will stop we had the story mentioned about jeb bush and goldman sachs donors -- to ted cruz.
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>> it is tuesday, the second of february, and this is trending business. we are going to be heading to sydney, singapore, and des moines in this hour. this is a look at what we are watching. snapping a four-day rally, concerns about the global economy and again putting pressure on oil. even the fed is waiting to see where policy goes now. ads have been key
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to taking over apple as the world's leading company. follow me on twitter. that is my handle. don't forget the hashtag. trading has started in jakarta. we have another half hour to go before tokyo. >> uneventful session in the equity markets right now. we are seeing declines, the down about .5 percent on that index. this is really what we are seeing across every single market. it's not a real rush to the exit. we have indicators of risk. a lot of losses today are down to declines across resources,

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