tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg February 5, 2016 5:00am-7:01am EST
>> it is jobs day in america. the back drop global slowdown. later, bill gross, jim glassman in this hour, george magnus of u.b.s. the dollar weakens this week. will global leaders meet at the plaza hotel sometime this decade? and there is a football game this weekend. did you know that? money will be minted. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." it's friday, february 5. i'm tom keene with caroline hyde in london. jobs day in america, but after the week and after the month of
january, it's truly a demrobal story today. caroline: it certainly is. dollar weak thns week, what european surging, what yen surging, what a pain for the rest of the central bankers in the world. as everyone in the u.s. is going to be raising rates. tom: i said this last week, caroline, you should have been from, we had a soiree of bloomberg talent, and i said the yen is the single story. right now you need more than a single story. let's get to bloomberg first ord. the panel ruled that assange has been arbitrarily detained bins 2010 and should be freed. assange has been holed up in weak door since 2010. he would be extradited to sweden and could end up in the u.s. being questioned about leaked classified documents. a brisht government spokesman
says the u.n. ruling changes nothing. it was the first presidential candidate this season with only two candidates on stage, hillary clinton and bernie sanders. they squared off last night in new hampshire in a debate on msnbc. sanders said he is the democrat who will represent the people. senator sand rds: our campaign is a campaign by the people, of the people, for the people. secretary clinton does represent the establishment. i represent, i hope, ordinary americans. and by the way, who i'm not all that enamored with the establishment, but i am very proud to have. secretary clinton: honestly, senator sanders is the only person who would characterize me a woman running to be the first woman president as exemplifying the establishment. >> the two battled. clinton said she would look into releasing transcripts of her speeches. a new poll sends a plan to take the u.k. out of the european union leads by nine points.
45% want out of the e.u. 36% want to stay in. 19% of those polled were undecided. they were surveyed after the prime minister won some concessions from the european union. and president obama will propose a $10 a barrel tax on oil in his upcoming budget. it's unlikely to go anywhere in the republican-controlled congress. the president wants the money to go toward transportation and climate projects. that tax is part of the administration's plan to shift the nation away from fossil fuels. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2,400 journalists around the world. tom: rainee, thank you. let's get into a data check. we're really going to focus on the yen. caroline hyde mentioning that earlier. futures higher. what a shock off of january. euro 1.12 yesterday, off weaker dollars. steven shork adamant this is
just simply a move. less volatility than many would suggest, 1 points, and the dow showing some oomph this week. yen, there's my story. and brent under 35. caroline? caroline: let's check in here, because you say there's less volatility, but the stoxx 600, tom, already between gains and losses five times since last i checked. auto, banks leading the charge. you also have swiss bank strength this morning after the swiss national bank flashing their cash, still trying to push its currency lower, buying in foreign currency. worry at a record high of $580 billion of foreign reserves. nevertheless, they just can't fight it. the swiss franc goes higher. big story here, tom. miners are so well this week, but dow is going to the market to raise more cash. and lastly, gold is up .2%, a little bit of a trade there.
tom: we've got a euro chart, and we'll show it. right over to the bloomberg, let's do that, and this is like the litmus paper of the banking system, the vanilla spread. here's the ugliness of recession, up we go, and this rollover got people thinking. i would suggest that the fear of recession is more about money coming in to the united states. the flows of money globally and what we're going to see and almost getting out in front of that negative interest rate scenario. this is a little bit for the gloom view. i don't buy it right now. but nevertheless, if it walks like a duck, maybe it is. caroline, get us started with our guests this morning. who darkened the door this morning in london? caroline: we're going to talk of will we, won't we see a global recession. we're speaking to an optimist, because u.s. jobs data, the
dollar heading for its worst week since 2009 on bets that the fed might hold off on those interest rate hikes later in the year. "george" magazine us in joins us to discuss all of this, and ou've been adamant so far. do you start to worry when you see the volatility in the market? george: yeah, of course, it does bother me that things aren't great. i do think that this u.s. recession is the most -- or global recession is probably the most predicted event since nostradamus, which just being facetious, that alone might tell you that maybe it's a little bit hyped. but more seriously, i think the -- we see lots of soft patches, so business investment in the united states hasn't been that great, images being built up too high, sales hasn't kept pace, although there's a correction going ork the dollar
strong. all the sections that we have before had been preceded by a surge in oil prices, at least back in the 1970's. so i think this is a soft patch that we'll muddle through, but i don't think it's going to tip us to the edge. caroline: this is starting to drive growth. it's meant to be a positive. george: once we've absorbed the negative shock of lower oil prices on energy cap ex and all the companies that basically feed into that, you know, i think it will come through. savings rate in the united states has gone up, which actually in and of itself is a bad thing for the economy in real time, but actually gives the consumer a bit more purchasing power going forward. actually i think we have to be patient. tom: this has been the miracle of jobs. we've got any number of charts today to show you folks on the merican labor economy.
dd what a shock in america. with your experience and from your view from london, what is it about the united states that clears markets, that gives us a better trajectory to our unemployment rate? george: well, i'm not sure how much better than 5% we want to see it. i mean, it's possible that the unemployment rate can still edge a little bit lower, and i think that although people kind of say that, you know, the labor market, labor statistics are kind of lagging indicators of the economy, i mean, normally, if we were going into a good, old-fashioned recession, i think the labor market would have shown pronounced signs of weakness before now. i mean, the danger, i suppose, is that the underlying level of growth in the economy obviously is not good, and so shocks like emerging markets, you know, the kinds of profits recession are
the kinds of things that could tip the economy over for a quarter, but i still think we'll muddle through, to be honest. tom: when you look at the trajectory, it's been done by monetary policy, it's been done by good old economic growth. but what we see here, and i know there's attention in europe as well, it's simply two americas. there's almost a job tightness to part of america, and then for the rest of money it isn't money. how, too, is our two americas. george: i mean, the dichotomy in the economy, again, it's not uniquely american. you know, we have it all over europe as well. maybe the united states, united kingdom actually are two extreme examples, where, you know, it's sort of a -- one tale is about high levels of employment, lots of people -- in the united kingdom, record numbers of people are worth. not quite so in the united
states pause of the participation rate. but nevertheless, the other side of that obviously is kind of a dissatisfaction and a disillusion on the part of lots of citizens and voters that, you know, they've been neglected, they're not sharing in the spoils of such economic recovery as we've had, income inequality, these kind of social issues. in one respect, they're took kind of ok. on the other side, i think there's a big failing of public policy which resonates with a lot of people. caroline: what people to want see is more money in their pockets. they want wages to go up. you've got unemployment remaining at 5% in the u.s. george: yeah, i think it's been developed rd in most countries. again, i would say, if we're patient, i think that labor market tightness over an
extended period of time, if we get it, will feed through into hiring, better wage formation, particularly for skilled workers, but i don't think that, you know, nobody is holding their breath, to be honest. tom: george magnus with us to get us start. bill gross and jim glassman will join us in the 8:00 hour. coming up in our next hour, the chief economist of citigroup. he wrote a scathing, constructive note on negative interest rates this weekend. we'll talk to bill. stay with us. this jobs day, "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
day in london. check out this millennium bridge at the moment. we are seeing greenish hue, just up. materials, energy stocks really leading the gains this morning. let's get straight on into our business. >> thanks so much. first up, two of the world's biggest toy companies have had talks about merging . hasbro approached mattel about a possible deal last year. since then the two have held on and off again discussions. mattel has been trying to revive its barbie business. hasbro has the transformers and my little pony. the third largest lender in switzerland will pay more than half a billion dollars, $547 million to settle a u.s. tax evasion case. they admit they helped american clients hide billions of dollars in assets. it coached its bankers on how to avoid detection. and fourth quarter profit fell more than expected in b.n.p. paribas. net income was down 52% from a
year ago. b.n.p. says it is restructuring its investment bank to boost profit and free up capital. that is the bloomberg business flash. tom: whole different story than credit suisse. caroline hyde, help me here with b.n.p. paribas. what is the distinctive feature there of the other beleaguered european banks? caroline: it's about overhauling and the fact they did a dive dent. it was raised by more than 50%, so that really is trying to woo the investor base. when you look at the numbers, we thought it was going to be a crash in the stock price today, but actually the calls started coming in, and it was going to go higher because of the dividend rise, and because they're liking the capital as well, tom. we saw the capital just manage to improve, up about 20%. tom: different story from what francine lacqua was reporting on earlier this week. what do we have, caroline? caroline: you're exactly right. banks have been one of the worst performing industry groups this year, and on to another one that's not fared
that well, commodities k. they cope with the current slump? planning to raise $3 billion to investors to ride out the current storm. we've got to be fair. the miners have done very well this week. that seems to be demend incident on the dollar weakness, although we've also seen that hand in hand. they're really showing the problems of having to raise money, because they're so low. >> and actually, they've done pretty well. if you look at the equity today, down 6%, and this market is sort of a blip. hey're coming off a cliff. but you're right, they're facing china. china says it's going to cut tons over five years. everyone saying that's probably maybe half of what actually has come out of the market. how do you contend with that?
tom: the workdown, the balance sheet workup, where are we in the psych snell i mean, is it just starting? that's my feeling, but am i wrong on that? >> it depends what you look at. if you look at futures in shanghai, which are key indicators, they've been rallying for the last month or so. is that an early sign we're at the bottom of the cycle? i suspect not. but coming back to this point i made earlier, there's a lot in there. utilization, global is down to something like 64, 65%. most of last year was about 75%. that's telling thaw things aren't great. and the bloomberg intelligence have this indicator of profitability. it's been negative for a year now. tom: you chided me that i'm oil, oil, oil. there's a lot more going on. which metal best describes the global slowdown? is it copper? >> yeah, it's not a bad indicator. is it dark for copper? probably not. but it's not a bad way of
looking at it. in terms of production, it's fairly well to product across the world. caroline: we've seen the dollar come down this week. are we starting to see the u.s. dollar and will that actually start to help some of these commodities, and indeed, actual prices of these metals? >> yeah, well, that question begets another question. obviously it's not an accident that the dollar has kind of leveled a bit as the market has moved to price out further increases in u.s. interest rates. so we've probably, absent the bullish number today on jobs or in the next few weeks, we shouldn't really expect to see much of a change in kind of dollar sentiment for the time being, but i would say, you know, it's not just u.s. interest rates or u.s. monetary policy, which actually is
driving the dollar. tom showed a chart before, which was about flows coming into the united states, and, you know -- caroline: well flow? >> given what we think we know, which is not that really about what funds are actually doing in terms of asset selling, liquidity, the exodus of capital, a trillion dollars of capital is left in emerging markets, so that's one huge bubble that's basically gone pop. and, you know, i would expect -- i still would expect the dollar to be, you know, somewhere -- i don't think it's in the foothills of a seven-year ascent, but i think it's -- it's kind of halfway up the mountain. i think it's got a ways to go. tom: we're going to talk about that later in the hour. george magnus was at the plaza accord a couple of years ago. we're going to continue with mr. m magnus. thank you so much from bloomberg news. in our next hour on the american job economy, she
and jim glass setting the table for us in the 8:00 hour. right now, a smart morning must read. >> thanks very much. this is coming out of bloomberg view's editorial board, writing a piece last night focusing on hillary clinton's side of the debate. this is what she had to say, take a look -- i'm out here every day saying i'm going to shut them down, i'm going jail them if they should be jailed. tom: republicans? >> talking about the financials, the big banks right there. it's interesting, in this editorial piece, we point out that hillary clinton took 9.7 million dollars in speaking fees back in 2013, lot from banks and investment firms. $675,000 of that, tom, was from three speeches to goldman sachs itself. tom: i don't mind the speaking fees. it drives me nuts about the speaking fees. but she was a senator from wall street, am i right? >> you know it as well as we all do. are we really not surprised by
this? she's also strike to strike a tone against bernie sanders, who has been coming out and about basically head to head right now. tom: we have this bar chart in "the wall street journal," lays out the securities focus. but i don't think anybody, including in any state in the nation, is surprised that she's a senator from wall street. >> right, not surprised, just looking at this, $14.3 million so super p.a.c. contributions from securities and investments. tom: caroline hyde is with us this morning. caroline, this is shocking that a senator from wall street is going after wall street. caroline: come, it's banker bashing. we've had that here for years. after all the bank bashing, you then have tony blair going to work for j.p. morgan as an advisor, you have gordon brown going to pimco. it seems to be slightly a love-hate relationship, shall
we say, in the banking community. tom: gordon brown replaced bill gross at pimco? caroline: i'm not sure he's managing too much money, but he's certainly an advisor. tom: i'm glad you brought that up, thank you so much. the silliness continues in new hampshire w. all due respect with coverage on that, through friday and into the weekend as well. on "bloomberg surveillance" next, jane foley, without question my story of the week is a stronger japanese yen on this jobs day from new york and london, "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
with a little bit of daylight in their early friday evening. we welcome all of you from asia to "bloomberg surveillance." jobs day in america. lots of global news. right now, let's catch up on if the first word" news. >> good morning. the stage was left crowded, but the tone was more intense in the latest presidential debate. in new hampshire last night, bernie sanders sparred one-on-one with hillary clinton for the very first time. he criticized her once again for taking donations and speaking fees from big banks. mrs. clinton angrily denied that she's beholden to wall street. secretary clinton squrks enough is enough. if you've got something to say, say it directly. but you will not find that i ever changed a view or a vote because of any donations that i ever received. and i have stood up and i have represented my constituents to the best of my ability, and i'm very proud of that. >> mrs. clinton is far behind
sanders in new hampshire polls heading into the state's primary next tuesday. the u.k. is taking steps to prevent the spread of the zick avirus. airlines must spray insecticide inside their planes, currently being done on flights leaving countries infected by malaria. sued vabe fighting islamic state in syria, according to a spokesman for saudi-led forces. he told the tv the saudis will provide ground troops to battle islamic state. and while the emotions build towards super bowl 50 this sunday, the only thing some bay area residents are feeling is anger. though the game will be played some 40 miles south of san francisco, the event will still cost the city an estimated $5 million. residents complained that while it is a boon for businesses, costs for clean-up will come out of taxpayers' pockets. it will draw around 160 million viewers around the world being
more than 100 million in the u.s. alone, where it's always the most watched tv show of the year. also, by the world cup, the other football team last time by about one billion people. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2,400 journalists. tom: now we give you the miracle of the two people that know least about the super bowl here with me. i mean, i've never even seen carolina play, to be honest up >> yeah, i grew up as a fan of the washington redskins. i'm from virginia. tom: let's have a moment of silence for you. >> yeah, we know how that works out. but it's interesting how much money is going into this. tom: $5 million a pop, right? >> per ticket? yeah, per ad, yeah n. terms of the amount that people are buying in tickets, $8,000 for a zpad son that i was talking about yesterday on air. amazing money. tom: unbelievable. a little bit more intelligent discussion on this on bloomberg radio later with michael mckee, die-hard broncos fan. right now we need to turn to
foreign exchange. without question for me, the shock and awe of a stronger yen this week. she's given us this terrific value, jane foley joins us now. jane, is the push of yen by the market rolling over from that chart on the way to 115? is that a test that the bank of japan will have to go ever more egative? in the e.c.b., the yen is currency. and basically the market is short these aggressively as if getting the trade, and right now the market doesn't want to get involved in the trade because it's too rich for volatility and risk is not strong enough. so really, very difficult for the e.c.b. and the bank of scombreap to try to weaken their currencies. tom: what lesson is the bank of japan learned from the swiss national bank's effort to weaken the swiss franc?
jane: well, again, the bank of japan has been looking at the s&p and saying, well, they're doing it, but really has the s&p been that successful? certainly they've had some success. last summer, for instance, we heard that well as a safe haven. anyone who's been to switzerland over the last few years will know that the swiss franc is really overvalued, so the s&p, perhaps a great example, where they are trying to weaken the currency. caroline: tom brought it up perfectly, kicking off with the bank of japan, and i'm fascinated with why analysts such as yourself potentially see the yen actually weakens longer term. the calls are 123 for the yen. what's going to happen there to ctually send it to that level? jane: what we're seeing right now, the market is repricing expectations about the fed. of course, that has weakened
the u.s. dollar, that's been the big theme this year. that's played in to the yen too. you got to watch yourself. there's a positive carry on the u.s. dollar, so how far are the markets going to sell off this dollar? that's why i think that the movement in the yen really will be limited, because the bank of japan are pushing against this with a negative rate. and the e.c.b. are pushing against this, and therefore, i think the market will run out of steam and short the dollar at some point soon. caroline: and what do you think about the calls at the moment? you've got less than 50% probability we're going to get a hate hike this year. what do you still think will happen this year? jane, are you seeing one, two, zero? jane: we tend to be more -- we never thought the fed was going hike before december, and even then, it was probably credibility reasons. so we've had a call twice this
year, but to be honest, in the last few weeks, the data suggests there are down side risks to that, so maybe once, maybe twice, but i think the next data over the next couple of months is going to be really key in trying to -- in how far they can go. tom: let me give a question to you that i would give to george magnus. we've got these people, and you're doing a much more of a tactical exercise. what is the likelihood of dollar strength to see the 199 owe's 2002 dollar and give us plaza accord tension. is that part of your thinking? one year out or three years later? jane: not just yet. and again, it very much depends on how the fed plays it. if the fed don't do much in terms of interest rate hikes, it should try to water down the dollar spent. but really, we do need to look at the u.s. data. there is great strength in terms of u.s. employment creation, but we're not seeing it through right now in
inflation. so i think right now, the dollar is sort of ok, but the fed really do need to manage that strength going forward from here. tom: thank you for the perspective as always. she's been such a value to "bloomberg surveillance." ms. foley is with robobank. george, it's beginning to percolate. talking about elements of a plaza accord. others not mincing any words about it. robbie feldman from morgan stanley i thought was stunning earlier in the week. are we getting near a discussion of leaders getting together to stop dollar strength? eorge: no, i don't think so. at the moment, there's a chairmanship of the g-20 in china now. i don't think the g-20 really has it to be a coherent ecision making body.
i mean, remember that when the accord happened, the dollar was pretty much getting on, although that dollar bull run was getting almost to a six or seven years old. the previous one, the dollar bull run during the period was also about seven years old so. this one is actually much younger. as i said before, it isn't exactly foot hill, but halfway up the mountain. i think it can go either. i think it would have to go substantially further because there was kind of an international outcry or the u.s. calls for it basically had an outcry about it. tom: this is what you do. bring up the accord chart again, anthony, if you would. this is fun. this is a long chart, which means percentage changes there. the red line is the move in the accord in the 1980's.
the yellow arrow is the dollar. and then you bring the arrows over and compare the latest dollar move, and you can see we're really getting close, and we're nowhere near yet, as george magnus says, to the dollar strength that we saw in the 1980's. george magnus, how alone is china with the supposed managed low? george: well, there's a huge amount of chatter, for lack of a better phrase, going on about management flow, they should let it float. in know, they can't stand the way of capital flight. look, nobody knows for sure what's going on inside the people's bank of china, people's bank of china itself is only the organization for state council. foreign exchange decisions that affect the whole world are
being made by people who are not experts in foreign exchange or in macro economics necessarily. so my instinct is that their instinct in china, the first thing is to control, to be in ontrol, not to lose control. before china floats much further, i think they will opt for capital controls. tom: george magnus with us, terrific perspective from u.b.s. it's all part of the debate, the nuances of the debate we're trying to give you on "bloomberg surveillance." we do that with alan kruger of princeton. that barely describes his capabilities on the american labor economy. the former chairman of the president's council of economic advisors giving us perspective this morning. it's jobs day. it's "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
caroline: i'm caroline hyde with tom keene in new york. it is a green day for the stoxx 600, but a volatile day. let's catch up with all the business news. >> thanks very much. toyota has raised its earnings forecast and profited record for japanese companies. sales of toyota's rav-4 and lexus luxury cars are soaring. analysts forecast the largest automaker will make about $26 billion in profit in the year ending in march. also, in germany, it may be a sign a global slowdown is hurting europe's largest economy. factory orders fell more than expected in december. orders were down .7%. that comes after an increase back in november. and shares of linkedin are
getting hammered in premarket trading. the professional networking site has lost a third of its value since yesterday's forecast. linkedin predicted a year of full revenue growth. and that is the bloomberg business flash. tom: it begins our movers here on linkedin. such a help at evercore, he minces no words. he takes ebitda growth down the income statement from 43% down to 23%. that is shocking. he's adamant that is facebook, google and amazon and away from linkedin. i mean, this is a deeply troubled story. >> right, just looking at premarket, it was down 30%. one thing that i'm interested in looking at is the price target cut from $225 to $155. and that's where the next 12 years, and right now we're at about $147 or so, that's a huge cut. they have a hold on the stock
as well. tom: it's one guy's opinion, links the fall we're seeing in twitter possibly over to linkedin. you wonder, after the marissa mayer interview this week -- which, full disclosure, i was shocked by the interviews -- i don't think they took this playbook on the west coast. they don't -- they don't have the same rule book that other companies would. >> a lot of people would say they're operating in their own little bubble. with yahoo!, it's all about the user group. people just aren't going there. tom: would you let him know there's a sursur bubble? let's go to caroline hyde. the metals are doing well. caroline: i'm going for green, because anglo american, check it out, up 12% this morning. it is on its biggest two-day rally on record. anglo american, hardly any
miners are down today. why? it's dollar weakness. dollar weakness really started to build the miners suddenly picking themselves out of the doldrums, got perspective, and anglo american significantly down over the course of 12 months, but still they're managing to show optimistic notes here, and clearly keep your eye on all those liners. tom: maybe we call it a dead dollar bounce, technically they've got a lot of work to do to get the stability, let alone escape what's been a bear market. it is jobs day after the report at 8:30, a conversation with one william gross of janus capital. you'll hear this worldwide on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. in our next hour, bill and ellen, stay with us. ♪
get tout reality that this is a seven-day week business weekend. you got to work through the weekend if you're part of "bloomberg surveillance." reserves fell to $3.2 trillion. that would exceed a record $108 billion decline in december, which brought lastier's total to more than a half a trillion dollars. that's from bloomberg news and our asian team. that gets to you sunday this week. george magnus, we've had a couple of people tell us this is a big deal. why is it when china reports their reserves? george: well, it's a big deal because i've been told, you know, last summer, china's reserves were generally, you know, seen to be the product of economic success and prowess and a status symbol. certainly in china it is. what we now know is that china has experienced huge capital outflows. i mean, last year, the reserves fell by $500 billion -- over
$500 billion last year. there's another for economist predictions. and what it's basically telling us is that the currencies are under pressure. we know that. and capital flight, which is something which is very, very difficult for the chinese to deal with, unless they really stamp down very firmly on capital control. tom: u.b.s. did landmark research five years ago, 10 years ago, on the fiction that were the chinese cities. do you have a confidence of what's in the piggy bank? george: well, we kind of know -- we sort of know at bit about what sort of holdings they have about euro denominations, government bonds and so on. and so a lot of -- the bulk of that $3.2 trillion will be liquid assets. some will not that be liquid, may not be, you know, transferable into, you know, cash if they needed it that
quickly. but there's also a kind of prudential limit on how far they can drop. you know, they need to have a certain number of months worth of import, and u to have something in the piggy bank. you can't run them dry. so what we -- the reserves themselves aren't fiction. they are the product of earning years and years and years of current account balances. but now the worm is beginning to turn, and it's going to be more than interesting just to see where the chinese government, chinese authorities will physically draw the line, where they feel that they're not willing to have reserves to drop. i mean, they may have no choice in the end, but certainly they will not reserves to drop below the critical level, which i would say is not too far away from here. caroline: how far will they allow it to drop? how much are you still worrying about it overall, depreciation, devaluation, whatever you call it, because they've been dipping this week to support
it. george: yeah, my feeling is that they don't like the volatility. they don't like the kind of markets having kind of control over their currency. and they are worried about the capital flight. so i think they will be -- you know, they may allow the yawn rate to drop gently against the u.s. dollar provided that the level against the basket that they're looking at is a kind of reference, more or less stable. but it looked like the yuan, they were losing control of the yuan, i think they would slap on capital controls again to try to keep it stable. in the end, if china has, you know, a harder landing or a financial crisis, which is quite possible over the next couple of years, the yuan may go down, you know, anyway. but i think they will resist it. caroline: a lot of analysts are talking about a recession fueled by china. we'll talk about that in a bit, but talk to us about that, will
we see a recession in chin a? you talked about peeling back whether the revembs true. are the numbers that we're getting printed true in terms of growth? george: it's possible that the hard landing has landed. some people think that chinese growth may nobody more than about 3% or 4%. it's impossible to verify, and we don't know what models people use to calculate these things. it's clearly not 7%, but it's probably not 3%, otherwise we'd see much more social stress and unemployment. but i think china is going to cause the world to go into recession, no. it's an ago congratulation, but it's not the cause. tom: george, let's spruce a chart we're going to use on "bloomberg surveillance" this morning. this is the europe unemployment rate and the united states unemployment rate. i'm sorry, george, it's just a stark difference, the differential back 20 years, and then they meet within the crisis, and then the clearing of markets and the improvement in the united states. what does america need to do to
sustain that good news and employ people with higher wages? where's the productivity coming from? george: gosh, if we knew the answer to that -- tom: agree. we don't know the answer, do we? george no, and we don't know, to be honest, where tomorrow's high productivity jobs, where they'll they'll be, but how they'll defuse through the economy, so the low-paid sector, job security, these kinds of things, people on strange contracts and zero or part-time hours and so on, so, you know, there are, as you know well, there are floors even in the u.s. labor market where the unemployment rate is low. there are flaws in the labor market, which we don't fully understand. i think, i believe that, you know, lot of this has to do with a long healing process.
you know, from the financial crisis, which in 2007, i thought it might take 10 years if we're lucky, and we're sort of a little bit over halfway along, and also, of course, structural changes, technology, you've covered it, robotics and so on. tom: george, we're going to leave it there this morning. thank you for getting us started on jobs day. he is george magnus of u.b.s. bill gross and jim glassman will join us later am but first, we get started with citigroup, arguably the best short sharp note in support of negative interest rates. and then a conversation with ellen zentner of morgan stanley, her call on the fed. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
later, bill gross and jim glassman. next, willem buiter of citigroup. ellen zentner of morgan stanley on janet yellen and stanley fischer's uncertainty. buiter, american football. money will be mentioned. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from our world headquarters in new york. it is friday, february 5. i am tom keene with caroline hyde. are you into the super bowl at al? caroline: there is a big ballgame, but for us it is rugby. tom: you are into six nations rugby? caroline: i have to say, who wouldn't be? now, someone who knows a little bit more about
, ramyper bowl than me inocencio. iny: it was the first debate new hampshire, hillary clinton bernie sanders. bernie sanders says he is the democrat who will represent the people. bernie sanders: our campaign is the campaign of the people, by the people, and for the people. secretary clinton represents the establishment. i represent ordinary americans who are not all that in an heard with the establishment -- you are not all that enamored with the establishment. hillary clinton: bernie sanders is the only person who would characterize me, a woman running to be the first woman president, as exemplifying the establishment. also battled about paid talks by goldman sachs. marco rubio is closing the gap
with donald trump. ae poll found that about third of likely republican voters are still undecided. also, a u.n. human rights panel says julian assange should be freed. the panel ruled that he has been arbitrarily detained by the u -- detained in sweden. he would be extradited. two new york city police officers are respected to survive after being shot overnight. it happened while they were patrolling a public housing complex in the bronx. detectives say the government killed himself after the -- the gunman killed himself after the attack. obama has proposed a $10 a barrel oil tax. it is unlikely to go anywhere in congress. news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in
more than 150 bureaus around the world. i am ramy inocencio. $10 on $30 a barrel? i am lost. ramy: a 25% increase. will people want to do this? $20, $30, $40? tom: that is a scary thought. i want to pound through this and get to willem buiter as quickly as we can. , nymex uphe screen one dollar weakness. next screen, please. .he vix really going nowhere the dow adding it on, distant from record highs. the yen is the story of the week. we will get to that shock with willem buiter. stronger yen. caroline? caroline: ending the week on a high for the stoxx 600.
-- on the day of swiss strength, reserves rising to a record once again, and seems to be because of the weakness of the last 12 months. look at that particular pair of the last 12 months. gold up .2 of 1%. tom: i am glad you brought up the swiss franc. many of the parties in play. over to bloomberg right now -- the world coming to an end -- oh, no, we are all going to die. maybe not. maybe that is about flows or anticipated flows into america. one of the themes, the curve flattening. this is the spread that everybody looks at. this is my knowledge of super bowl right there, going straight down. ok, we are thrilled with our guests, this jobs day.
bill gross and jim glassman joining us here in a bit. willem buiter without question of the most important note on negative rates over the weekend. we will get to that any moment, but first we need to speak to the mystery of jobs formation. you have really thought about this at the london school of economics for years. day in america. the unemployment rate is pretty darned good. we are all miserable, and we are miserable because of productivity. explain why american productivity is so weak right now. measuredell, productivity is weak because the u.s. is bringing back into the labor force who are either unemployed or detached from the labor force. as the british would say, in cricket you are playing your tail-enders. ramy, it is possible that
you and i know less about cricket than the super bowl. willem: i just wanted to get that in. after years of low capital formation, across-the-board. items of excellence. tom: i love that. i have to write that down. innovation is as active as it ever was, but to get it to show up in the data, you need to embody innovation. tom: bring up the chart here of two americas. a lot of us are not aware of the most basic of job charts. there is the guy we are going to, the unemployment rate 5%. there it is. the cyclical move of unemployment, the crisis, a miracle have we -- how we have come down. we are so miserable as a nation.
witnessing our politics. we cannot disperse that technology to society. why is that? thatm: and to the extent it gets dispersed, it gets dispersed unequally. so there is a problem even to the extent that productivity is growing. it is growing overwhelmingly at the top end of distribution. middle america is not materially better off. caroline hyde, jump in here with willem buiter, please. looking at there i sm, the manufacturing data. the employment part to those particular data points. it is not looking pretty. are we about to return into not quite such a strong market when it comes to the u.s.? willem: we will see. data is -- ment
way, there is a concern if the under indicators -- if the other indicators are more forward-looking. that thehere is risk u.s. economy is softening. i do not think i have heard the word "recession" quite yet for the u.s., but there is a risk of a slowdown that seems to be underway, not just driven by external demand and distractions. it is domestically driven through excessive corporate leverage and capex. tom: i want to go back to caroline hyde. can you reaffirm the likelihood of global recession? recessionll, a global -- it is a global growth recession. we are close to that.
of 2015, ifquarter you correct the chinese data for the obvious factor that is in there, you get about 2% global growth. -- ihat is well below think that is as close to the recession as you can get. tom: caroline, in the econometrics undergrad course at factor, the fudge factor is one of the detestable ideas. pick it up, please. caroline: talking more about the dollars -- we have seen some dollar weakness this week, down 2.5%. how much is that going to be a relief coming to the fed right now? how much do they want the market to tone down on it, or how much do they want to stick by four hikes for the rest of the year, or will they change their talk?
willem: i am sure they will change their talk. they are probably slightly regrettable about having talked so tough in december. i would not say that you are seeing the current cyclical high for the cycle, but the weakness that is already discernible versus what is expected late , it is worrying about domestic development, further external drags on growth. and i think they are sitting on their hands in doing it well for the foreseeable future. tom: give us the dollar call for citigroup. broader dollar call right now? willem: in the short, the dollar is likely to weaken somewhat because the fed is still moving the markethikes, and
is catching up with that. but there is no doubt that risk, emerging markets, all in monetary policy mode -- japan is expansionary. the ecb is more expansionary. the fact of the bank of england talking about rates, there is no doubt about the longer-term trend will be to weaken. tom: willem buiter is here to give us perspective, and we will go international with him in a bit. in the 8:00 hour, we focus on the american economy. billa conversation with gross of janus capital group he has been more than critical of washington in this jobs recovery. look for that at a: 30 on bloomberg radio and television. stay with us. ♪
tom: very good. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." it is a data check, a jobs day data check. there is our data check for this morning. not much going on, a churn as we 30 this morning -- for h: 30 this morning. he was ramy inocencio. rav 4sales of toyota's suv and luxury cars are soaring. the automaker will reach $26 billion a year ending in march. be paid ton will settle a class-action case.
ius bar -- net income was down for bnp paribas 50% from two years ago. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. tom: we do economics, finance, investment, and international relations, but sometimes there is a scandal we have to look at. my "morning must-read" today is from shelly banjo. i love her to death. she does not know what she is talking about.
tom: i cannot get through this, it is so long. we go to ramy inocencio for perspective on this. is she nuts? dunkin' donuts is the best coffee on the planet. ramy: i would say dunkin' donuts is better than starbucks. a beginners coffee, breaking in your palate. we go to willem buiter. would you like to weigh in on this ya? dunkin' donuts or starbucks? willem: i am a dunkin' donuts man from way back, but mainly for the donuts. tom: talking about dunkin' donuts. do they have dunkin' donuts in london? willem: yes, they do.
in my neighborhood, there is a flourishing dunkin' donuts. it is right across from a starbucks, actually. tom: very good. we will have shelly banjo on to defend her call. caroline, please weigh in here. are you going to have dunkin' donuts while you watch rugby? caroline: when you are over here next, we can go to the donuts cabinet. i do not know if they have great coffee there, it is just about the donuts. tom: road trip when we are there, to dunkin' donuts. thank you so much to tell about -- for your perspective thank you so much to willem buiter for your perspective. lastutiful essay on japan night, or maybe the night before. we need to catch up with david. this jobs day, stay with us on
"bloomberg surveillance." willem buiter is with us. stanley fischer made very clear at the council on foreign relations, he has been surprised at how they have worked. they have done better than good. what happens if japan and other nations go even more negative? willem: well, they are likely to do so. it will ask further on liquid asset prices. especially on the exchange rate. through the exchange rate on stock prices, on longer yields. it is just another very conventional monetary policy. tom: what is the unexpected consequence that we get out of something that is not in the economic textbooks? only -- the economic textbooks only work if there is no limit as to how low interest rates can go.
tom: have we tested yet, bringing negative rates in -- have we tested that threshold or critical point where you get a jump in condition if you bring a negative exchange rates? willem: it is still not happen. --y carry cost of currency insurance, storage, safety -- the debt is really more than 75 basis points, i do not know. but we will find out. tom: caroline? think about the club of 5 at the moment, the boj joining the swedish. are the current ones going to keep on digging lower? willem: it really depends on how the economy is going to evolve. if the u.s. were to seriously slow down, which is not an
essential projection but is a risk, then clearly it will go negative, despite the value of many market funds. at some point you have to buy the bullet. but if it does not happen, it could be several years before they get their bank. likewise, the bank of england. chinak of the large ones, is -- tom: you think it is possible the bank of england may be forcing negative rates? willem: at some point, undoubtedly. we are in a world where policy u.s. in the u.k. and the are very likely to go above 2%. tom: i love caroline hyde's phrase there, digging a hole. it is the smartest thing i have heard about negative interest rates. if you dig a hole, something has to occur before you fill it in. willis the event that
clear markets so we can get back to central-bank normality? this may be central-bank normality. if interest rates remain zero, negative, and if you have trouble achieving the policy target for inflation, then on average the policy rate will not be above 2%. typical pig-two-trough cycle, it is certain that in the cycle whenever it comes, the fed will be zero bound and the fed will be likely to go below it than further expand the balance sheet and follow japan. tom: week ago for another 40 minutes with you. is this the most fascinating time? none of this is in your textbooks, right? willem: certainly not. this is a world that we did not know we could live in. tom: i love that -- a world that
we did not know we could live in. willem buiter, of the london school of economics. with citigroup as well. futures churning on a jobs day. coming up, ellen zentner of morgan stanley -- she was way out front in suggesting a delay in central-bank action. she moved that around a little bit, but, boy, has she been something. forget about 2015. look into this year and next year. stay with us. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪
the latest democratic presidential debate in new hampshire last night. bernie sanders sparred one-on-one with hillary clinton for the very first time. he criticized her for taking donations and speaking fees from the big banks. mrs. clinton angrily denied that she is beholden to wall street. hillary clinton: enough is enough. say,u have something to say it directly. but you will not find that i have ever changed of view or a vote because of any donation that i ever received. and i have stood up and represented my constituents to the best of my ability, and i am very proud of that. [applause] clinton is far behind sanders in polls heading to new hampshire next tuesday. inpokesman for saudi forces yemen said the saudi's would isisde troops to battle
militants. the prospect of a north korean missile test is prompting reroute.o launching of a satellite would violate long-standing resolutions. britain is taking steps to stem the spread of the zika virus. flights heading to affected countries will be sprayed with insecticide. -- super bowl 50 on sunday though the game will be played 40 miles south of san francisco, the event will cost the city an estimated $5 million. that cleanup for security -- cleanup and security will cost the taxpayers.
global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 bureaus around the world, i am ramy inocencio. tom: somebody is going to disneyland. mitsubishitokyo doing wonderful work on the american economy. joining morgan stanley, she had the fed call over the last 18 months. ellen zentner is going to disneyland in the game of market economics. wonderful to have you here on jobs day. i want you to dovetail your out of consensus gloom on the american economy with where the dots are going on the fed. .here are 2.4% you are under 2%. do you presume the dots will come down? yes, and what we have seen is the dots have been perpetually coming down at major meetings when they have to revise their forecasts. you mentioned that 2.4%
expectation for growth this year. they are going to have to bring those forecasts down. we will see the forecast come down in march, and the dots come down yet again. i will tell you that many others are starting to join our camp of dropping their growth estimates for this year. tom: what does that do for fed ramification? dialog like with a the united kingdom, where we are talking about 2017? ellen: i think for monetary policy makers, they like to have full faith in their outlook. when you have a lot of volatility and this apparent slowdown in the domestic economy that we have had, that leads to a lot of uncertainty about that outlook. if they feel they are in this situation of perpetually revising the forecasts, that will potentially delay rate hikes. but they do not want to make that decision. the fed does not want to make that decision before each of
those major meetings happen. they really want to make it on a meeting-by-eating basis. tom: is the market out in front of the fed following? 2/10,at i mean with the does that indicate true recession, and will the fed catch up with the market? ellen: i think that the market has overdone it. there are a whole host of scenarios, including very dire ones. they are never going to see i to their the fed because expectations are built around the baseline that armageddon does not happen. we will end up somewhere in between. i think the market sentiment is disconnected from fundamentals. the economy is not as bad as that market is telling us it thinks it is. yet it is not as good as the fed thinks it is. the two will meet in the middle. the futures curve has got to come up. tom: we are not disconnected
from london. caroline hyde is with us this morning. , tom.ne: thanks we certainly see the selloff of the dollar this week, down 2.5%. that suddenly gives breathing space to the fed. pleased bying to be this move? is much of an obstruction dollar strength to where they see the futures being? ellen: that is an important question of the moment. based on changes in the dollar, just through this past week, already that dictates that they are probably going to miss on their inflation estimates. there is a lot of volatility. the effects on the economy are lagged from dollar changes and that precludes them from raising rates in march. the dollar has come off, and that can give them comfort if they maintain that lower level, some more stability in the dollar, that perhaps they can still maintain the tightening
bias going forward. they have to certainly be relieved that the dollar has given up some of its games. but the damage has already been done leading up to now. you say the markets have gotten ahead of how bad the economy is going to be. how much our company is going to be reading into this as well? you have been talking about how much investment is needed, and that has been dragging down the overall growth perspective. our companies holding back on investment right now? we seem to be seeing signals of that because of volatility. ellen: certainly that can affect jobs numbers. that part of the human capital investment. think back to last summer when market volatility was high and we had angst over global growth, kicked off again by fears around china. we had two back-to-back months of weak job growth. those delayed hiring plans because when the vix jumps, it changes unemployment. ,, and jobs took
off again. is the confidence there right now with the outlier call that you have? ellen: i think this is what -- i hate this saying -- but it is what keeps me up at night. the ability for markets to produce this self-fulfilling prophecy. we have a sound fundamental domestic economy. it is slowing. this is a mature point in the business cycle, and that is ok. market sentiment is disconnected from that fundamental strength in the domestic economy. and volatility builds the economy. you can map the vix against payroll growth, retail sales growth. we do not like volatility. we cannot make decisions. tom: how do you dovetail this into adam parker's world? -- thetake the growth lack of growth in manufacturing
that you see, how do you dovetail 1.8% in the equity market? ellen: adam is encouraged that he is not seeing ceo hubris. he is still not seeing that. but even the boolean adam parker -- even the italy and -- even parker --ent adam they are getting punished for missing. that is not a good environment. it speaks to the amount of uncertainty in the business backdrop at the moment. with us.n zentner we will look at the american economy in a moment. coming up on bloomberg radio, a conversation with alan krueger this jobs day, at princeton. we will speak of america's inequality. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on jobs day. ♪
caroline: welcome back. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we bring you now news on the european politics front. david cameron met with martin schultz yesterday to discuss the new k's demands for reforms -- the u.k. posten as for reforms. the pre-trade agreement between the european union and the united states of america would create the biggest economic area of the world. 800 million, the two biggest economies in the world. and the united kingdom, i think they should stay in. caroline: the u.k. should stay in. many are calling for that as the talk of exit swirls and -- as
the talk of brexit swirls around the united kingdom. tom, let's take it out to you in new york. tom: this matters now. we do it with ellen zentner of morgan stanley, joining us today. let's do the american job economy, the two americas that are out there. why are we so miserable with a 5% unemployment rate? a problem ofis perception. consumer confidence is rising. where it is rising is for the lower income groups where we have minimum wage increases and where we have been creating the majority of jobs in low-income areas. we had an explosive growth in jobs in the fourth quarter. we are probably going to get act some of that explosive growth in the first order. but if we can get 150,000 today, i will be happy with that. that is enough to keep the unemployment rate under pressure. that is enough to cause the fed
to say we are still getting a little bit of improvement each month in the labor market. i think that fears are overblown, but i do not think fears are unwarranted. but they feel overblown. we have to watch job growth and see, does it flow. tom: service sector inflation -- we spoke to david rosenberg about this yesterday -- if service sector inflation is up along with goods inflation being down, what does that signal about the labor economy? does that signal a tight service sector? are seeinge we service prices rising, it is not related to the labor market, it is related to the housing market and pipeline pressures and the fact that more folks are moving out what choosing to rent, and the rental vacancy rates are so low. tom: it is real estate noise? ellen: it is kids and older age groups that downsize, having to pay way too much in rent. ofnomists relieve that 30%
disposable income applied to rent is a burden. we have got more than 50% of renters in the u.s. paying well more than 30% of their disposable income toward rent. it is a significant burden. it is a drag, and almost like no of millennials moving out and choosing to pay such burdensome rents. tom: this matters now. that is so important what you just said. say the statistic again. ellen: this is out of a recent study showing that more than 50% of renters in the u.s. are paying well more than 30% of their disposable income toward rent. economists believe that the 30% threshold is a burden or in you should not pay more than 30% of your disposable income. tom: what does that do to consumption? ellen: it robs what you can spend elsewhere. and we can see that in a lot of
the numbers. retail vacancy rates are at multi-decade lows, so even though we are building money family -- even though we are building multifamily properties like apartments, rental pressures will remain. that is a significant part of domestic service prices in the u.s. tom: i want to go to the auto industry. you have been great at following it. 18 million units -- even mary bar is a little bit shaky about that. as long as households remain healthy, we will need more vehicles. we do not think that 18 million annual units is the peak. psychologically that is the barrier, but demographically we can get past that. what we have been watching is the rise of shares of sales borrowers, and
that has risen quite a bit, but historically it is fairly low. we also think we have not quite hit the top for that sub prime borrowing, either. the labor market continues to improve. auto sales will as well. tom: ellen zentner of morgan stanley. this matters now. coming up on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television, bill gross after the jobs report. we will talk to him about the american labor economy, and much more of what we are seeing globally with labor -- with negative interest rates. in london, in new york, "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
applied. right now you need the medicine of a bloomberg business flash with ramy inocencio. ramy: could a permanent play date be ahead for two of the world's biggest toy companies? mattel was approached last year by hasbro.ger musiciansthing for hurt by streaming music. sony and warner says artists will share in any windfall from services like spotify. and shares of linkedin are following in the premarket. the professional networking site has lost almost a third of its it's since yesterday, forecast predicting a year of slower revenue growth. tom: shocking. yhen you say slash, the slash.
a complete readjustment, recalibration in the silicon valley business. best chart.s single ellen zentner with morgan stanley is with us. thanks to michael mckee of "bloomberg surveillance" for this great idea -- inflation-adjusted gasoline. a gallon of gas, and adjusted for inflation, and we are back to the early 1990's. that red circle, what a gallon of gas costs. absolutely amazing. thanks to mike again for the free lunch. nobody spent is, the gas savings. you do not agree? ellen: i do not agree. that is an excellent chart because that has been a huge boost to households. who gets the biggest boost? it is the lowest income groups who do not save and have a high marginal propensity. they spent it. rivaledr was the most
year -- the most traveled year, vehicle travel. some of the other double-digit growth categories -- luggage. hotel occupancy rates were at a decade high. we did a lot of traveling. restaurant sales, through the roof. the gas savings got spent, but thepuzzle is, why does personal savings rate go up as well? when the wealthy -- the wealthy do not like it when the stock market loses value. it is the wealthy in the u.s. who determine the personal savings rate. they are the savers. the top income quintile represents the top of all spending. when they change their habits, it matters. so when the wealthy stop spending, we see the personal savings rate rise. our kimberly greenberger, our retail equity analyst, calls it the luxury recession. to see thene,
results of retail yesterday, david wilson was going through them on bloomberg radio, on kohl's and a few others. caroline, jump in here on this idea of gasoline. caroline: we have seen an ugly quarter when it comes to retail. then you are saying you have a lower call on whether we will see economic growth, 1.5% likely this year, lower than consensus. ,ut the goodwill from low oil already spent, is that why it is so much lower? speak to saysne i oil will play into the economy and give it a boost. ellen: i think one of the things we have seen is that in the past oil has been unambiguously good for the u.s. economy. what we have this time is what has been the fastest-growing capex, and it has taken a major hit.
at the same time, it came with a lot of market volatility. tom: let's review your 1.8% call. we all know and it is ugly. where is the part that gets you 1.8%?-- that gets you to is consumption? ellen: it is not consumption. we cannot blame the president, either, even though we would all like to. we take a supply-side approach. labor markete a that is growing quickly enough. we do not have productivity that is growing quickly enough. that means our potential growth in the economy is very low, so our 1.8% growth forecast -- we think it is growing above. tom: this is so important as we are in the morning in america, looking at 1.3%. ramy: we are coming out of
winter. it is february. what do you think in terms of looking ahead to the next quarter or two in terms of consumption? i would say commodity strategist have an extraordinarily difficult task in trying to figure out where oil prices are going. this is not a demand-side issue, it is a supplied-side issue. we can see that demand has been very strong. -- weekly gasoline demand went through the roof in 2014 when prices dropped, and it is still rising. vehicle sales are at record highs. lower gas prices will spur a lot of activity around travel and dining out and things like that, but that does not help us find a bottom sooner in oil prices because that is a supply-side issue. tom: 15 seconds left.
when does the fed act again? ellen: they have no clue. they are saying we will let you know when it is we can do more. we thinkonomy grows as it will, 1.8%, and in inflation stabilizes, not going further lower, they will move in june. they will move further this year. they will maintain that tightening bias. tom: ellen zentner, thank you so much, with morgan stanley. ramy inocencio, thank you for coming in. caroline hyde, thank you so much, in london as well. coming up, alan krueger of princeton university. and then bill gross on television, radio, worldwide. it is jobs day. stay with us. ♪
his firm pioneered low-cost funds. now vanguard's ceo is seeing a whole industry under the gun. we will be speaking to bill mcnabb in just a moment. stephanie: welcome to a very big day on "bloomberg ." i am stephanie ruhle. you thought it was jobs numbers? no. david westin is off. emily chang is here from san francisco. but it is jobs day. the founder of stock tech -- and our own bloomberg intelligence