tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg February 5, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EST
>> good morning. i'm david gora. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. the jobless rate fell to a nearly eight-year low. >> signs of wage growth something that has been noticeably absent. how we growth has played into the race for the white house in 2016. vonnie: linkedin getting crushed this morning. before cassidy year of slower revenue growth. to the markets desk. >> with the disappointment and headline numbers, the jobless rate fell, we saw that uptick in average, hourly earnings.
it wasn't enough to give clarity for the past for the federal reserve. the nasdaq down the most. if you look at the bloomberg terminal, you have the groups on the move. some of the other big cap tech decliners. well on thisng up down day. i want to look at other asset classes and helping have been reacting in the wake of the jobs report. we are seeing yields move up, which seemed to indicate that average hourly earnings number gives room for the fed to raise rates.
likewise, the dollar has been moving higher against its major partners. moving higher versus the yen. gaining versus the euro and the pound. oil prices -- we are seeing prices move lower by 1%. pick an asset class and there seems to be differing interpretations. >> it is earnings season. we seen movers there? .> tyson shares are gaining the producer of chicken benefiting from lower feed costs. we heard from an investor and saying that management has been operating well. they reported 81 $.8 billion loss in its fourth quarter. that will dilute the value. , the clothing maker, missed estimates.
thank you so much. >> ramy inocencio has more from the news desk. ramy: we begin with the u.s. labor market that called off. jobs,ers added 151,000 less than expected. it was payback for its seasonal hiring pickup. the jobless rate fell. the stage was less crowded and the latest democratic debate. in new hampshire, bernie sanders sparked one on one with hillary clinton. are takinged her donations and speaking fees from big banks. hillary clinton angrily denied. take a listen. >> if you got something to say, say it directly, but you will not find that i ever changed a view or a vote because of any
donations that i ever received. [applause] and i have stood up. i am very proud of that. she is far behind polls heading into the primary next tuesday. order senator marco rubio has moved into second place and is closing the gap with donald trump. according to a poll from cnn, trump is a 29%. rubio at 18%. cruz is at 13%. the poll found a third of likely gop voters in next week's high marries are still undecided. -- next week's primaries are still undecided. unit --ork city, the the new york fire department says it was an accident when a onne collapsed and landed several parked cars.
ite details on the story as becomes available. powereds 24 hours a day by a journalist. i'm ramy inocencio. continuing u.s. is to show signs of a resilient labor market. it dropped to an eight year level. jobs report january saying? here is ward mccarthy. stephen, i am going to start with you. this is a mildly suspicious report. he said you can see whatever you wanted from better wage growth to other things that were not so positive. >> the sectors were all over the place. a lot of seasonal volatility is not unusual. you have to look at averages.
>> ward, you are looking how the bond markets are reacting. certainly a mixed reaction. >> what the bond market is telling us is that the u.s. economy is resilient. has been a lot of concern how the economy is going to react with the volatility in the financial markets. this will all pass that some wind. the labor market is telling us that this is a good number for the household sector and we are a household consumer driven economy. we shall prevail. vonnie: will the market fall back into line with said thinking? >> market expectations of the fed tend to be pendulum wide. then they swing from one extreme to the other? there were expectations of board four rate hikes
back in september. i do not think the fed will act in march. i think that june is a likely candidate, but we still have to pay attention to what happens, not only in the domestic economy, but the global financial markets. >> there is a growing disconnect between growth and gdp numbers. it's inside there is a disconnect there. what is a significant of that? poor job's very number in the fourth quarter. they have been taking along like clockwork. part of the answer is a potential growth is fallout. we saw that with productivity numbers. ,f the economy grows at 2% which people are conditioned to think is a lousy number, the reality is it's growing significantly above trend. we continue to grow at a pace that is allowed the labor market to time. vonnie: what is your call for
this year? >> you talked about the disconnect between the markets and the fed. the markets are going to be stubborn. they are convinced that the economy is falling apart. today's numbers should be a stark reminder that that is not happening. if the fed wants to stay relevant this year, they will have to nudge the market into that direction. janet yellen's next wednesday is going to be big. >> they were talking about a breakdown by sector. a lot of growth and hospitality and leisure. those are not -- sectors what see a lot of highway to growth. >> true. but the leading sector was business services. what was most interesting is 29,000 increase in manufacturing employment. in aggregatese
hours worked. contrastsse sharp with the other manufacturing data we have seen -- that lies in sharp contrast with the other manufacturing data we have seen. what has been most consistent and what i think we should hang our hat on is what stephen is saying, the labor market data. that is a pretty good. vonnie: a lot of gloom from financial backers starting with japan. speech -- were at the basically saying, the economy is running on track. the trajectory is not off track? >> there is a disagreement. out, they were somewhat dismissive of how the
fed should respond to the financial market volatility. and suggested that they still favored four rate hikes. bill dudley told a very different story saying that the volatility in the financial markets might be changing the outlook, might be changing the risk to the outlook. other onesey and the will have a longer periods time. the majority says we hold steady, but i would be surprised if we did not see at least one dissent or maybe two from esther george and loretto messer. vonnie: all right, thank you. we will continue to watch the markets as yields bounce around. >> coming up in the next half-hour a bloomberg television, the signs of wage
growth. how that has played into the presidential race, coming up here on "bloomberg markets." ♪ we will be talking about market innovation. >> shares of lincoln are having their worst day ever after the networking site forecasted a year of ship -- slower revenue growth. that is coming up on bloomberg television.
crane collapse in new york city. it occurred in the tribeca area. we will have more details on this accident as they can become available. let's head to the bloomberg terminal with julie. julie: linkedin is losing a third of its value and a single day. went and came out with a revenue forecast below analyst's estimates -- $20 million. has been trying to diversify its revenue streams, but seems as though those efforts are taking a while to bear fruit. that is what is behind the decline in shares. nursing the losses spread a lot to other big technologies. amazon shares are holding back. -- alphabet, facebook, declining in the session as well. we are continuing to see this weakness in the cap tech. other movers we are watching --ay in terms of decliners
on the cosmetics front, we have a couple of cosmetics makers reporting their numbers. estee lauder has turned higher even after the company's cut its forecasting for the year. it did beat analyst's estimates. elizabeth arden on the other hand, reported numbers missed estimates. they are saying the company is lower than expected. according to analysts, the company should have been making more progress by now. it is blaming at least partly what is going on in the currency markets. map how much of their sales come from the u.s. versus elsewhere. the u.s. is still the larger portion, but about 37% of the -- any's sales come from david: thank you so much.
the jets reports, the good news, we saw unemployment dropped to an eight year low. americans are still worried about underemployment and wage growth. the deceptive nature of the unemployment rate i think is the problem because it speaks to a smaller portion of the job force. to fed uses that rate forecast interest rate policy. they are focusing on the wrong thing. >> when your business is investing on whether we are going to see inflation -- we have rising wages, better than expected this past month. what you think of that? ll: we know they were 0% last month. it is around 2.5% or 2.6%.
i am hardened by that, but i think it is more statistical than anything. , real longer-term basis wages are suffering. the middle class and the lower a term that is not used anymore in political circles, all in combination, aren't earning a wage that justifies growth in the economy of over 2%. i think central bankers everywhere, they need a certain rate of nominal gdp of real growth plus inflation. over the last of month, it has been to when i percent. to me, if you give me 30 seconds, and represents the 2.9% the return on capital. it does not cover the cost of capital, which is hard to estimate, but at market terms, it is a 6% cost to capital.
if you can only grow at 2.9%, you have to take haircuts in debt. need nominal gdp in the united states of at least 4%. see an inflation issue building? bill: no, i don't see that. to a certain extent, you can say globalization has provided labor for the past 10, 15, 20 years, ever since the fall of the curtain in russia and delayed it -- in the late 1980's. there is no real problem in terms of labor. i wonder why a central bank has to be so focused and so absorbed on the cost of labor and wages, ofopposed to the cost
interest rates, and the cost of stock prices. it seems unfair. looking at the big victory on the labor economy. it is not there. cap policy fix it? can senator clinton fix it? can trump fix it? can president obama fix it in the final months? of the the prescription cost in your research notes? --l: the policy for chris the policy prescription is not mine alone. it is simply common sense goals. once monetary policy has been drained of its potency, and certainly we are seeing that now on a global basis, then fiscal policy has to take up the slack. why doesn't that take place? that is because the mindset is anti-keynesian. look what happened in europe
with germany and her balance balanced budget. look at the united states in terms of the republican orthodoxy. look at the imf with her tendency to lend money as far -- as long as these foreign extremists balance their budgets. monetary policy can do the job. draghi,ir to yellen and they have complained about it for a long time. it is simply a limited task. gross that was bill portfolio management -- manager at janice. vonnie: hillary clinton and bernie sanders fighting for the mantle of progressives. and taking aim at wall street. ♪
david: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. davidvonnie: and i'm vonnie qui. hillary clinton and bernie sanders faced off last night. some candidates seem to be targeting slow weight growth. we did get a little bit of with growth. >> the trends are in the right direction. not only is it the current report that is encouraging people, but the fact they revised wage growth and prior month, and so the direction is positive, but given 10 years of stagnant, real wages, it is going to take more than a few percent. intense of a
david: and a campaign of this length -- in a campaign of this length, on the democratic side, we are seeing a lot of issues on weight growth. bernie sanders really hitting hillary clinton hard. mostotion of who is progressive of the two of them? they both think an attack on wall street is going to somehow translate into speaking to the electorate's anger. street is not going to change wages that much. they are playing that part. it does see that the voters are trying to channel their anger, and trying to find someone to blame. wall street is an easy target.
comee: do either of them up with a prescription last night to try to salvage something in the way of bringing the two economies together? well, i did not personally hear anything. in fact, even the economists out there are really at a loss to explain what is the policy prescription that will actually raise wages more significantly than they have in the past. this is something that has been going on for years. it does speak to the globalization of the world economy. you know, the question really is, what if wakefield doesn't come back? if wage growth doesn't come back? bill gross said fiscal policy has to kick in at some point. marty, thank you so
much. time for our bloomberg business flash. forgive me. vonnie: we are going to have a quick look at the markets. the s&p 500 down 9/10 of a percent. left in theer hour european trade. the euro trading and little weaker, but still up. david: moore bloomberg -- more "bloomberg markets," coming up right up to the break.
news desk. ramy: first we had to columbia where the country is reporting its first three deaths blamed on the zika virus and 100,000 people could be infected. brazil is the hardest hit of more than two dozen countries affected. researchers found the active virus and saliva and urine and they are sending test sample to the united states. a key supply route to rebels have been cut and refugees are fleeing into turkey. the north korean missile test is prompting and airlines to reroute flights today. also, the exposed the force of the volcano captured on video
happened in southern japan. a nuclear plant 30 miles away is operating normally. japan has over 100 ok. and irruption over two years ago killed many people. right has died. "earth, life force of wind, and fire." he was 74 years old. that is your bloomberg first word news. back to you. david: there will be more "bloomberg markets," here right after the break. [laughter]
i'm david gura. vonnie: and i'm vonnie quinn. strategistis global for the jobs reports. thank you for joining us. following some weakness in the last few days. what were traders reacting to specifically? to wagewere reacting growth. looks like there is an adult uptrend at the unemployment -- an uptrend at the unemployment rate. they had become excessively gloomy at the u.s. economy and monetary global policy. wage growth edging ever so slowly higher as the unemployment rate drops. we are going to get rate hikes this year unless something goes badly wrong. we are going to have to put a
couple back into people's mindset. david: i was looking at your most recent note. you said it is too early to go short. you had a. any regrets a day later? [laughter] >> no, it is all good. see a littleto more of a squeeze in those positions. this is a number that is consistent with an economic story, but not too volatile to shake things up. some of these currencies we may need to pause. i would like to see the dollar a little bit higher before i can jump up and down. will it sustain -- what
will the fed think about that? it will hold here. stories.r is two it has been the story of broad strength. i think that story takes a bit of a path now as we move into the chinese new year and things calm down. the other side of the story is that it is back to the fed. it comes back in a month or so in a big way which is the theme for the second half of the year. i will ask you, how we have seen this play out over the last week this motor negative rates. >> it is fascinating. negative interest rates work
extremely well to persuade european investors to move money out of the euro area and weaken the currency. japanese investors have done that over the last few years. pushing on are strain trying to get them to do more. the key to money flowing out of japan is being less scared about the rest of the world rather than not liking the yields at home. they had an awful for a while. theink we will probably see dollar-yen exchange rate gyrate. ,onnie: speaking of slowing what is been a major driver of the dollar for the last several? driver?the major is it a return to oil? >> i think we are going to keep on watching oil. it is very tempting to say that it is all over.
oil will settle into a range before eventually recovering. i think a lot of people saw that at christmas. i don't know. oil prices ought to be higher by the end of the year, but where prices can come back as a theme. erdo think things get calm through chinese new year. the new year holiday will slow things down. we are getting jumped around by what is going on in emerging markets, credit, commodities. before we ever get back to that the current theme does the fed goes twice, three times, is it possible for them to surprises and go in march -- that theme will come in due course.
at the moment, we are just reacting to the news. sound: i want to play you -- >> based on changes in the dollar up through this past week, already that dictates that they are going to miss him inflation estimates. there was a lot of volatility. the fx on volatility are lagged. that does preclude them from raising rates in march. --id: that was ellen's inner ellen center. she thinks the fed is very aware of the dollar and that it would move or not move based on where the dollar is. i think the fed is aware of the dollar and conscience -- but it is mostly wanting a, environment in the sense that. the labor market is getting tighter. the economy is growing at a steady rate that would justify
policy normalization. i am more prone to think that in the days before the meeting, the dollar strengthening and chinese equity markets are strengthening, they won't risk adding to the volatility. in, -- calme waters, who knows? march does not feel very likely. thant feels less unlikely this time yesterday. they are incredibly conscience of the international environment. edge -- the objective of the bank of japan was to get it lower. ?an it go much lower >> i don't know if the objective weakeret the young to be
and measure it not come back. to have a currency that is very cheap. of what it was at its peak. it is very competitive. they are trying to keep it cheap. i don't see the point of getting it cheaper. that does not achieve anything useful and is extremely difficult to do. is theey don't like correlation between the strengthening currency and the falling equity market and having this thing snap violently. if we went through 115 next week , they would be coming back. i thought they used up what is now relatively scarce ammunition a little early in this game because they will need it in due course. vonnie: we will keep an eye on that in see if negative rates the court -- become more
negative. get a check on how rates are faring with mark barton. -- iis is the stock 600 have circled 1:30 p.m. london time. we went down, up, down, up. we are still lower and lower for the fifth day. if the wage aspect we should be focusing on and investors seem to be repricing the expectations. five days of decline, longest losing stretch in over three weeks. check out the date moving industry groups on the stocks 600. love this function. the only gaining industry group this week -- i will tell you what, it is up for a third consecutive week.
since january 20, the day before there would bed more stimulus and march, guess what? this index has risen by 20%. still down by 43% in the last 12 months. we have seen quite a turnaround in the fortunes of those mining companies in the last three weeks, bonnie. ofnie: to account for some that green. look at industrials as well. thank you so much, mark barton in london. latest doolittle has the live in midtown manhattan. abigail: we are certainly looking at a selloff. for two primary reasons -- weakness and a real selloff in big tech at the nasdaq. this is a reoccurring theme.
today's big losers are amazon, alphabets, and facebook. theming in sympathy with quarter, these companies are very different. investors appear to be selling last year's big winners. speaking of amazon, it was a second-biggest stock of the nasdaq last year. it is down one and 26% of its peak last year. it could be a telling of what is to come of the other big tech names. taking a look at one of the big the company will be receiving $500 million from a private equity firm. returning $5.5e billion to investors after the recent sell of its storage units.
and reiterating guidance for the current quarter. the company has been struggling over the last couple of years with declining sales. this shows with a stock trading and a volatile trading range. the question could be is all of this will help push semantic higher? vonnie: thank you so much. david: citadel securities is buying kc g at the new york stock exchange. they will have the biggest footprint overseeing trading and approximately 400 issues. exchange isrom the tom farley. tom, let me start with you. i suppose we have two data points. there is a real shift. >> good morning. you are right. diversifiedthat firms are looking at the
businesses they are in and making tough decisions. we appreciate barclays and kc g's contribution. it is back to the future. we had market firms devoted to businesses. reducing transaction costs. and providing customer service for listed companies. that is exactly what we are getting. in the case of citadel securities, they are a great firm and very committed to customer service and they are a fantastic marketmaker. we are very happy. vonnie: tell us about said adel and them being -- citadel being in the market-making business. designated a marketmaker is a natural extension of what we do. make goodng to
judgment to make markets better. david: how do you undergo this makersion among market and still keep investors satisfied that the proper protections are in place? ofder about the likelihood that happening again. have you put those investor's mind at ease to mark >> these markets have been very automated. it starts with people in the first thing we do to smooth the transition is we keep the people who do an excellent job. overseeing stock opens and closes. that is citadel's intent to do just that. it will help us make a smooth transition. david: why are you in your line of work better suited to run this than a big bank? why are you in a better position to do it? >> i think the markets had the -- have become much more
automated and the last year's. the one that will do best is good and make the investments in technology to be able to do automated trading. we are going to give the humans on the floor to the tools they need to trade stocks better and make stocks better for listed customers -- companies. the chicago stock exchange has a chinese group. visit me the chinese are moving into the exchange business coach mark >> it is fresh news. it cannot this morning. we also care deeply about china. we have 16 plus listed chinese companies. famously alibaba. i was just there last month. that is something we will watch unfold. vonnie: have you had approaches yourself?
>> i won't comment on that. interestedl you be if you did. >> what do you mean by approaches? if they approached you with an offer. we are not into soliciting anything in that regard. david: we were talking about volatility. as we have seen the evolution in that business, how have you positioned yourself to be able to deal with that if it should erupt again? designatedith the marker making model. toy are unique and obligated bid on an offer with stocks listed on the new york stock -- the stock options at all times. they are obligated to open and close stocks everyday. those of the two largest things of the day.
at the new york stock exchange, it is not overseen by the machines. it is overseen by humans that can apply judgment. the data shows that because of that model, we have less volatility on the new york stock exchange. that is something we are very proud of. that is a selling point. that is why we have had the largest ipos. and we are excited about citadel securities coming in. they will be terrific at it. we will see their great efforts. david: thank you so much for your time today. vonnie: still ahead on "bloomberg markets," linkedin shares are taking a beating today. we will talk to emily chang next. ♪
department says one person is dead and two others are seriously injured after a crane collapse. more details on this story as it becomes available. -- you can watch this press conference live. 40%.e: linkedin is down can accompany rebound? let's bring in emily chang to break down the numbers for us. ouch. it is a sad day. vonnie: are investors reacting? emily: there is a vast disparity in terms of the performance. still growing revenue, 34%. they are still growing users. so much better than a company like twitter, which is the only u.s. social network in china. this is what recruiters use to find good job candidates. forecast, definitely a
problem. investors are very skittish. vonnie: what are the comments about advertising? emily: nobody's advertising business compared to facebook right now. it is 20% of their business. it is not the biggest part of their business. they have been having trouble weathering the shift to mobile. they had been changing the mobile app. it has led to some traffic decline. the other part of the problem is they make big acquisitions like in education. they spent $1.5 billion on that. it will take a long time to realize the value of the company. for a: you can subscribe month, or a year. emily: it is also unclear on how that fits into their broader strategy. they got these linkedin influencers.
producing a lot of conflict to bolster their advertising business, but it is unclear how that is doing. why would i read the news on linkedin as opposed to bloomberg? why have we seen the marketing side of the business decline? emily: it goes back to advertising. if you are going to advertise, you are going to advertise on google or facebook. i met in the talent solutions this test, cory johnson made a good point yesterday -- if you are a salesperson, you are using clinton everyday. there is a subset of users who are very engaged. the talent pushing business is unrivaled. the really isn't another competitor out there. for those people, that is part of the business that is doing very well. maybe perception is far worse than reality. --nie: are bloomberg story
in this market, there is no mercy for a mess. any negative association -- emily: a weak forecast is not what investors want to hear, especially when we have seen a lot of earnings from these book. that apple -- apple is making so much money, and the markets are being so hard on them right now. linkedin has always been a conservative company, so hey, when they beat their conservative guidance a few quarters from now, it will look good. vonnie: thank you to bloomberg editor, emily chang. david: the jobless rate falls to an eight-year low. what does it meet -- me for investors?
joined live from london as we wrap up trading and the next hour, mark, what are you watching? mark: european stocks falling for a fifth time this day. bolstering the case for more fed tightening. the european close starts right now. vonnie: we take you from london to berlin in the next hour. mark: stocks fall for the fifth consecutive day. five days of decline. we haven't had a game yet. february, the weekly decline, 14 -- 4.2%. we saw again for the stock 600 of 3.7%. every industry is down this year. we have a decline of roughly 10%. 914 billion. we a f